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Gallup: Obama now leads by 10 among both traditional and “expanded” likely voters

posted at 3:00 pm on November 1, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Zog says McCain +1, Gallup says Obama +10, and Rasmussen splits the difference. Whatever happens, someone’s getting their face rubbed in a pile of warm shinola on Wednesday morning. Nate Silver thinks he knows which one it’ll be. We’ll do more of this on Monday, but here’s CNN’s interactive electoral vote feature in case you want to try mapping out scenarios. As things stand, McCain has to take all six toss-up states plus Pennsylvania plus one other state to win.

Let’s enjoy the left’s suffering now, while we can.

“Look, I have this sense of impending doom; we’ve had a couple of elections stolen already,” Mr. Downs said. “The only thing worse than losing is to think that you’re going to win and then lose.”

He considers that prospect and mutters, almost involuntarily, “Oh, God.”…

Ms. Kuhlman shakes her head and says, “If he doesn’t get this, I’ll be crying so hard.”

A young woman, Shana Rosen, walks by. She is from Denver and said she had told her boyfriend that their love life was on hold while she sweated out Mr. Obama’s performance in Colorado. Ask Lucy Slurzberg, an Upper West Side psychotherapist, how many of her liberal patients speak of their electoral fears during their sessions, and she answers: “Oh, only about 90 percent of them.”…

For many liberals, the chance to elect Mr. Obama, who would be the nation’s first black president, gives the United States a second chance to walk across the stage of world history. (Which also makes the possibility of his loss unspeakably more depressing; given his present lead in every poll, many liberals fear that race will explain any defeat.)

I offer you your optimistic metaphor of the day. No explanation necessary.


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Whatever nationality I am, at least I know who the Canadian Prime Minister is. Palin doesn’t.
Dave Rywall on November 1, 2008 at 5:12 PM

Good God, you’re the desperate one, doodie !
ROFLOL

pambi on November 1, 2008 at 5:14 PM

“OK, we’re confident that we’re going to win on Tuesday, so from there, the first 100 days, how are we going to kick in the plan that will get this economy back on the right track and really shore up the strategies that we need over in Iraq and Iran to win these wars?”
-Albatross form Alaska

And at least I know America isn’t at war with Iran.

Dave Rywall on November 1, 2008 at 5:14 PM

These pollsters have all been bought and paid for by Obama–all.

I don’t really believe that. But the 80% non-responder #’s make every poll naturally heavily skewed toward the Dems.

Spirit of 1776 on November 1, 2008 at 5:15 PM

I predict this is Gallup’s last attempt to demoralize us. Look for their poll to tighten in the next 3 days so they won’t be completely embarrassed when McCain wins. Sat, Sun, and Mon, the poll will get down within the margin of error so they can say they were correct no matter who wins.

Today is saturday and in Gallup’s poll the margin is widening in Obama’s favour. So its still tricky.

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:15 PM

strategies that we need over in Iraq and Iran

Can’t even read !! Be gone.

pambi on November 1, 2008 at 5:15 PM

Whatever nationality I am, at least I know who the Canadian Prime Minister is. Palin doesn’t.

Dave Rywall on November 1, 2008 at 5:12 PM

Seriously, what are you talking about?

terryannonline on November 1, 2008 at 5:15 PM

Dave:

That is bulls***. Palin put together a multibillion dollar pipeline deal with reps from your country. She is smarter than you are, more accomplished than you are and like me she is an American which is more than can be said for some idiot Canuck who has nothing better to do than bother Americans on the eve of their national election.

pathetic.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:16 PM

McCain Up 3 in Missouri. As Missouri goes, so goes the country.

Missouri has picked 25 of the last 26 Presidents and now McCain is up 3.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2008 at 5:16 PM

And at least I know America isn’t at war with Iran.

Dave Rywall on November 1, 2008 at 5:14 PM

You need to stay up on the news. Iran has been supplying insurgents in Iraq. Obviously part of our strategy is to deal with them so we can win our wars (which we are).

Spirit of 1776 on November 1, 2008 at 5:17 PM

Whatever nationality I am, at least I know who the Canadian Prime Minister is. Palin doesn’t. – Dave Rywall on November 1, 2008 at 5:12 PM

She knows. Like most Americans, she just doesn’t care.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 5:18 PM

Dave:

You are such an idiot. So we don’t need a strategy in regards to Iran? To hear Obama tell it our strategy should be to kiss their asses.

You irrational hatred of this woman is bizarre.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:18 PM

Today is saturday and in Gallup’s poll the margin is widening in Obama’s favour. So its still tricky. – clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:15 PM

It’ll get even wider tomorrow and Monday. The exit polling will predict an Obama landslide. Ignore it all and vote for McCain.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 5:19 PM

And considering the fact that Iran has been chanting death to America for decades, has been behind the slaughter of American troops in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Iraq in recent years I am not sure they do not think they are at with us anyway.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:20 PM

So how did their expanded and traditional polls come together all of a sudden? The demographics are different.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:21 PM

Wouldn’t it be awesome though if McCain wins the presidency, Coleman defeats Al Franken, and John Murtha loses his seat on Tuesday? That would be great.

terryannonline on November 1, 2008 at 3:58 PM

Yeah! And I hate to say this, but hopefully Cindy Sheehan will win and boot Pelosi out. Maybe that thought isn’t that good though. I am blond though…:)

sheebe on November 1, 2008 at 5:21 PM

Mobile:

That is true. Missouri almost always picks the president. It must be the demographics, I guess.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:22 PM

And, the polls are not accurate. My hubby and friends would tell me both times when Bush ran. He was going to lose. They go by the polls. I don’t. I was adamant that Bush would win. So, Now I feel the same way that McCain will win……

Get out and vote! Don’t think it is a done deal. Do it for our Soldiers fighting for our Freedom!!! Do it for your Family, Loved ones and Friends. Do it for YOU!

sheebe on November 1, 2008 at 5:24 PM

Friends don’t let friends vote for Obama.

my dear Many Rash, my best friend just totally humiliated me & THEN WALKED OUT of the dive where we were eating because i attempted to discuss politics the death of America if bambi is elected w/ her.

I was feeling rather shtty until i saw yer post….onnaconna that is what i was tryin’to do.
so much is being decided by this election…*sigh*

on my way home I found this framed prayer
http://weatheroutpost12.com/blogs/?page_id=172
in the square flea market. I was floored.
It is an election prayer from many decades ago…& ends thus:

” be swift to save us , dear God,
before the darkness falls.”

lobosan5 on November 1, 2008 at 5:26 PM

So how did their expanded and traditional polls come together all of a sudden? The demographics are different.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:21 PM

BINGO!! The odds of that happening should be astronomical–to quote Mr. Spock. Rats in poll land…

Matt Helm on November 1, 2008 at 5:27 PM

And at least I know America isn’t at war with Iran.

Only 50 of the states aren’t. The other 7 are.

Bobbertsan on November 1, 2008 at 5:27 PM

And at least I know America isn’t at war with Iran.

Dave Rywall on November 1, 2008 at 5:14 PM

Dave- you really need to read up on Iran’s influence in Iraq. Once again your ignorance is glaring. And no Palin was not going to correct the FauX Prime Minister. She makes your intellect look like that of a public high school dropout.

Jamson64 on November 1, 2008 at 5:28 PM

I looked at the electoral map by Rasmussen and it doesn’t look good for McCain. He has locked up only 160 electoral votes with Virginia and Colorado solid blue and obama at 5 points distance in Arizona. On the other hand Zgoby’s poll is up again on Drudge. It’s really crazy. – clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:02 PM

Snap out of it. Stop looking at the damned polls. Concentrate on getting McCain elected. Email friends and family. Make phone calls. Stop whining and start fighting.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 5:28 PM

One reason I do not want Obama to win is that if he does, from now on, it will be accepted wisdom that the White House really is for sale. There will be more illegal donations, more million celebrities throwing more star studded fund raises, more candidates paying homage to billionare row in San Francisco, more ads all over TV all the time and the next election will begin within hours of this one being over.

I want Obama to lose, so that we can maybe get back to a time when elections were not just about who could raise the most money, or get the best press or exploit the most bad news.

I know people who are convinced America is ruined, they heard it on TV. That is bull and it is hysteria and it is being driven by self serving politicians who refuse to give us a moment’s peace.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:31 PM

http://doctorbulldog.wordpress.com/2008/11/01/mccain-kicking-obamas-butt-in-missouri/

Missouri is breaking for McCain.

Enoxo on November 1, 2008 at 5:31 PM

Whatever nationality I am, at least I know who the Canadian Prime Minister is. Palin doesn’t.
Dave Rywall on November 1, 2008 at 5:12 PM

I wound venture to say that the majority of Americans don’t know such trivia.

(/ to CanadianGuy et. al.)

carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 5:32 PM

Snap out of it. Stop looking at the damned polls. Concentrate on getting McCain elected. Email friends and family. Make phone calls. Stop whining and start fighting.

I do that every day. It’s not easy.

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:32 PM

Stop whining and start fighting.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 5:28 PM

Exactly. Now is fish or cut bait time. My entire family–including extended relatives–and there are a lot of them–who are eligible to vote are voting McCain-Palin. I’ve hit up all my friends who are either undecided or leaning McCain, am planning on volunteering to take the seniors at the retirement home one of my relatives is staying at the the polls, and after dinner will be hitting the phone bank.

Hopefully this won’t get me moderated, but here goes…

DAMN THE POLLS! FULL SPEED AHEAD!

Matt Helm on November 1, 2008 at 5:33 PM

I wound venture to say that the majority of Americans don’t know such trivia.

You are right. There are lots of americans who cannot say who the vp in function is and who is the next in line if the president and the vp die.

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:34 PM

Sanity? Sanity?!?!?!?! Here’s some sanity you can take and shove up that goddamned Eyeorepundit’s arse.

*

80% ARE REFUSING TO RESPOND TO THE POLLSTERS!

*

It doesn’t take a genius to realize that Obama’s supporters are more enthusiastic. He’s hip. He’s cool. He’s black. He’s the messiah! Of course, they are going to talk to the pollsters.

*

McCain’s supporters aren’t rabid, but they are more numerous. The only thing that will stop a McCain landslide is if the Eyeorepundits of the world depress you, demoralize you, and cause you to give up hope.

*

Look, McCain was my next to last choice in the primaries. I’ve despised some of the things he’s done in the senate. But you know what????? Sometimes I was wrong and John McCain was right! Thank God, he led the Gang of 14, got some good judges confirmed, and kept the filibuster alive. The Republicans may need it someday (especially if Allahpundit’s army of Eyeores prevails)!

*

But I’ll be goddamned if I stand by and let a man like Barack Hussein Obama ascend to the presidency of the United States of America without giving my two cents first. Say what you want about John McCain, but he’s a true American hero. Obama wouldn’t last a day in the Hanoi Hilton.

*

And I’ll be goddamned if I let a petty little creature like Allahpundit continue his drip-drop campaign of Eyeoreism. Listen up: 80% ARE REFUSING TO RESPOND TO THE POLLSTERS! Use your brains! The polls are worthless! THE ONLY WAY MCCAIN LOSES IS IF YOU DON’T VOTE.

*

You still need inspiration?
Watch this!
Make it go viral! STAND UP! FIGHT! LET’S ROLL!

*

Buck Farack on November 1, 2008 at 5:34 PM

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:34 PM

Clemycali: where is your country of origin and how long until we get you as a citizen?

carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 5:35 PM

That is one super cool video.

Paul-Cincy on November 1, 2008 at 5:36 PM

lobosan5 on November 1, 2008 at 5:26 PM

my dear Many Rash, my best friend just totally humiliated me & THEN WALKED OUT of the dive where we were eating because i attempted to discuss politics the death of America if bambi is elected w/ her.

She was not your best friend – unless you were trying to get laid, in which case discussing politics was a HUGE mistake. The rule is clear: if she is really hot looking, tell her anything if it means unrestricted access. That aside, if you guys were nothing more than friends then you never were friends if something like this sundered you.

I was feeling rather shtty until i saw yer post….onnaconna that is what i was tryin’to do.so much is being decided by this election…*sigh*

Even Babe Ruth struck out from time to time. Perhaps she will come to her senses and apologize. If so, use her guilt as a weapon. Tell her you were really hurt and truly heartbroken by the way she treated you. Explain that you love your country and want it safe and secure so she can be safe and secure. If she doesn’t come to her senses, egg her house.

” be swift to save us , dear God,before the darkness falls.”

Let your heart not be troubled. After McCain wins, you can call her up on the phone and gloat.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 5:36 PM

Buck:

Obama would be on the other side in the Hanoi Hilton.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:38 PM

I do that every day. It’s not easy. – clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:32 PM

I know it’s not. That is why you have to believe me when I tell you that McCain will win. But he can’t do it alone. You have to stand up and fight. Will you fight?

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 5:38 PM

carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 5:35 PM

I am romanian and I have to wait a few months before I apply for naturalization. It’s everything about timing. I have to wait 3 years before I got my permanent residency before applying for naturalization. I married an american thats for I have to wait only for 3 years. Why?

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:39 PM

Will you fight?

Yes.

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:39 PM

loboscan:

Manly is right. And besides, if you are friends, real friends you should be able to get past this. After all, you have a right to vote for whomever you want to.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:40 PM

You need to stay up on the news. Iran has been supplying insurgents in Iraq. Obviously part of our strategy is to deal with them so we can win our wars (which we are).

Spirit of 1776 on November 1, 2008 at 5:17 PM

And it was influence from Shiite Iran that encouraged the sectarian violence after the bombing of the golden mosque.

csdeven on November 1, 2008 at 5:40 PM

Yes. – clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:39 PM

Then fight. Even if you can’t vote, do what you can to get out the vote. You are a patriot and we need patriots like you. Don’t let me down.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 5:41 PM

Dave is just a moron, come election day he will be sitting there with one hand in his pants and another in a bowl of popcorn, drooling and twitching and muttering to himself.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:03 PM

And how is different than what he is doing now? One wonders if his seach within his undergarments will prove fruitless.

Trolls

Regarding the poster who was in Brookline, MA last night – I had the same conversation with my ex-Californian sister-in-law last night. She gingerly broached the subject of McCain/Palin the same way you would have asked a friend in college if they smoked “you cool?”

Once we got past that she poured it all out just like we’ve been reading here.

On to victory, just watch out for the rioting.

turfmann on November 1, 2008 at 5:42 PM

I am romanian and I have to wait a few months before I apply for naturalization. It’s everything about timing. I have to wait 3 years before I got my permanent residency before applying for naturalization. I married an american thats for I have to wait only for 3 years. Why?

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:39 PM

Romanian and female? I bet you’re beautiful. Romanians mostly are.
I was just curious. You have a great grasp of our language. God bless you for becoming an American and choosing to use our language and, mostly, God bless you for doing it the right way.

carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 5:42 PM

Manly is right. – Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:40 PM

Manly is always right. Except, of course, when he is wrong.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 5:42 PM

They had an Obama rally off the side of a major local road today, one of highest trafficked intersections in the county … Three people attended, I counted them, one large banner and 3 yard signs. It made the TV news.

I might add several people waved as they drove by, many more gave them the finger, most just averted their eyes. No honking no shouting.

It was a doozy of a rally.

A while later I drove back by, I said it was a high traffic area, the exhausted rally-goers were rolling up their large sign and packing up their lawn chairs there were only two people there at the end.

tarpon on November 1, 2008 at 5:43 PM

On to victory, just watch out for the rioting. – turfmann on November 1, 2008 at 5:42 PM

LOCK AND LOAD!

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 5:44 PM

Some polls have Obama easily winning states 51-57. aikidoka on November 1, 2008 at 4:55 PM

Are you talking about the states, numbers 51-57 that Obama referred to a few months ago?

57 states in the U.S. ~ sharp as a basketball, that guy.

tru2tx on November 1, 2008 at 5:44 PM

You are a patriot and we need patriots like you. Don’t let me down.

I’ll do the best I can to convince people to vote for McCain here in California. Every vote counts.And I hope you are right about tuesday night. I’d rather get drank celebrating McCain’s victory than drawing my sorrow in a bottle of wine.:))

carbon_footprint

Thank you. And I plan to register as a republican.

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:48 PM

So how did their expanded and traditional polls come together all of a sudden? The demographics are different.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 5:21 PM

I think you’re confusing the party ID re-weighting that a lot of polls do with the differentiation in Likely Voter models that Gallup uses. Gallup does NOT re-weight any of its samples by party-ID. Its sample is its sample. They aim for demographic randomness, but they keep the internals of their tracking polls pretty close to the vest. For all we know (in fact it’s rather likely), their Halloween sample heavily oversampled urban liberals.

The only difference between Gallup LV Expanded and Gallup LV Traditional is the definition of “likely voter.” In the LV Expanded, Gallup was defining Likely Voter more loosely, as a result getting a pool somewhere between their large pool of Registered Voters and their smallest pool of strictly defined Likely Voters (the notion being that there might be an Army of Youth Democratic Tsunami this time around).

The convergence of the Expanded and Traditional models merely implies that approximately the same numbers were coming out of both the smaller pool and the larger one – that in their polling the same proportion of very likely voters were supporting Bam-Bam as possibly likely voters were.. It doesn’t necessarily say anything about demographics. It could be a result of statistical error, systematic error, or a real convergence in the electorate.

CK MacLeod on November 1, 2008 at 5:48 PM

All you silly ball-less poll watchers need to remember one thing. If you’re going to vote for McCain, then trust him and do as he says. Stand up and fight! They’ve written him off before and nothing is inevitable.

Trust McCain! Turn off your TV. Quit reading Allah’s asinine polls even if it means getting away from the internet until after you vote on Tuesday.

Seriously, if you aren’t mature enough to control your own emotions, then you need to just get in line behind those of us that do and do what we say. Your eyoreic blatherings are a drag on the other ball-less cowards who watch the polls.

csdeven on November 1, 2008 at 5:48 PM

tarpon on November 1, 2008 at 5:43 PM
Surely you jest ?!?!?!?!
So, he wasn’t in attendance, then, nor free food, nor entertainment, I presume.
Wow. Where do you live ??

pambi on November 1, 2008 at 5:50 PM

Thank you. And I plan to register as a republican.

You’re welcome.

I’d rather get drank celebrating McCain’s victory than drawing my sorrow in a bottle of wine.:))

Now that’s cute. You are awesome.

carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 5:51 PM

Best. Video. Post. Ever.

We’re gonna win this thing.

ElectricPhase on November 1, 2008 at 5:52 PM

csdeven on November 1, 2008 at 5:48 PM

Amen, CS.

Just go to the polls on Tuesday and vote. Like the Messiah says, “Take 5 more with you”.

Polls don’t mean shit. They’re so spread they’re meaningless.

Just vote. Vote.

Tell em’ all to eat shit.

BacaDog on November 1, 2008 at 5:55 PM

The only poll that counts is November 4th…

GO OUT AND VOTE. IF YOU DON’T LIKE MCCAIN, THEN VOTE FOR PALIN AND AGAINST OBAMA AND HIS SOCIALIST PHILOSOPHIES!

HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 5:59 PM

Can you imagine? If McCain loses he will have lost to the political kin of those who broke his body and beat his a$$ for years in a Viet Nam prison camp. I wonder if he realizes this. – jay12 on November 1, 2008 at 4:10 PM

Tell em’ all to eat shit.

BacaDog on November 1, 2008 at 5:55 PM

Eat shit jay12 :)

JiangxiDad on November 1, 2008 at 6:03 PM

I’d rather get drank celebrating McCain’s victory than drawing my sorrow in a bottle of wine…And I plan to register as a republican. – clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 5:48 PM

Don’t be a stranger here after the election. You are among friends.

And when you register to vote, tell them Manly Rash sent you. Do not be alarmed when they look at you like you have lobsters crawling out of your ears – that is all part of the prearranged signal that tells them you are one of us.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 6:03 PM

Buck Farack on November 1, 2008 at 5:34 PM

That video gave me a lump in the throat and tears in my eyes.

We cannot and will not lose this election to that unicorn riding, rainbow chasing, lying wuss and his thugs!

tru2tx on November 1, 2008 at 6:06 PM

Whatever nationality I am, at least I know who the Canadian Prime Minister is. Palin doesn’t.

Dave Rywall on November 1, 2008 at 5:12 PM

Who cares about Canada? How many Americans give a rats ass about Canadian politicians?

Guardian on November 1, 2008 at 6:07 PM

Wow… no matter what, someone is going to be WAY wrong on this one…. If it’s Gallup, I would certainly never use them to poll anything again.

CC – BHO: “my Muslim faith”

CapedConservative on November 1, 2008 at 6:07 PM

Eat shit jay12 :) – JiangxiDad on November 1, 2008 at 6:03 PM

He’ll be eating steak. At Ruth’s Chris in New York. On HIS dime. Heh. I plan to order the Porterhouse for Two.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 6:08 PM

Wow… no matter what, someone is going to be WAY wrong on this one…. If it’s Gallup, I would certainly never use them to poll anything again. – CapedConservative on November 1, 2008 at 6:07 PM

It’s all or nothing for both sides. The stakes? The soul of this republic. Hang on kids…the next three days are gonna be the bumpiest ride of your lives.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 6:10 PM

Don’t be a stranger here after the election. You are among friends.

I won’t be a stranger. GOP needs to be rebuilt in any case with or without McCain victory coming tuesday.

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 6:12 PM

Please download this picture and spread it everywhere.
Gilda did the ’shopping.

carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 6:12 PM

Apologize for the language.

I’m a little testy these days.

Now, I’m leaving to go the Palin rally here in Richmond. Gonna get juiced up on a little Cuda’ and be among my friends.

BacaDog on November 1, 2008 at 6:14 PM

BacaDog on November 1, 2008 at 6:14 PM

Lucky dog.

IrishEi on November 1, 2008 at 6:16 PM

Terrye & Manly Rash

thank you for responding….I am so fkng tired of waltzing around liberal shtheads…panties all wound up tight…I’d rather drink alone thank you. Did you guys dig the prayer?.. because it took the sting out of her bitchslap.
VICTORY AMERICA! Jonny Mac & Sarah

lobosan5 on November 1, 2008 at 6:17 PM

CK:

Yes, I see what you mean.

Still the whole expanded vs traditional seems odd to me.

It is not just these polls that seem odd. Look at Minnesota and the Coleman/Franken race. Some polls have Coleman ahead, some have Franken ahead.

I am beginning to wonder if a lot of people are just messing with the polsters. Maybe there is some real resentment there.

I screen my calls. I have caller ID and an answering machine. I have never done a poll. I only know one person who says he has.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:17 PM

Now, I’m leaving to go the Palin rally here in Richmond. Gonna get juiced up on a little Cuda’ and be among my friends.

Good and let us know how it was and if you get any inside about the vibe among the people. Have fun.:))

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 6:17 PM

You know, I also have this gut feeling. I’m still biting my nails to the quick, but I still have faith in the American people. Today at a drugstore, the cashier told me she loved my M/P button. We chatted a bit, and I said I loved Sarah. She immediately said “Me TOOOO!” She’s a single mom of teenagers, middle-class, not a church-goer (we’ve chatted on several occasions). She’s middle-America. I’m telling you, America loves them some Sarah.

hoosiermama on November 1, 2008 at 6:19 PM

I only know one person who says he has.

You know 2 now. I was polled twice. First it was a lady and I told her that I cannot vote. Second time happend few hours ago. It was a rgistred phone call (you know for the candidate x press 1) and I didn’t answer. So it must be something with the polls anyway.

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 6:20 PM

clemy:

That is odd.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:25 PM

Let’s enjoy the left’s suffering now, while we can.

Gee Allahpundit,

Thanks for the optimism.

Lothar on November 1, 2008 at 6:27 PM

Please download this picture and spread it everywhere.
Gilda did the ’shopping.

carbon_footprint

I’m saving it for front page of the Site blog when jonny mac wins.

lobosan5 on November 1, 2008 at 6:27 PM

The polls are bullshit.

Play all 4 quarters and don’t let up.

bloviator on November 1, 2008 at 6:29 PM

I don’t know which polls are right, and I don’t care.

My wife and I were down at our local farmer’s market this morning; we decided to hang out with the gang from our local Republican club who had a tent and were passing out McCain paraphernalia. I’ll say this, during the hour we were there, there was no shortage of McCain/Palin supporters. In fact one older woman, as she was picking up a McCain/Palin bumper sticker for her car, told us she was a lifelong Democrat, but this Tuesday will be the first time she votes for a Republican.

I have no idea if McCain will win, but it was heartening to meet so many people who want to see country’s foundations remain intact. It was a good day.

of course, after that we went to the range and bought more ammo. :)

dugan on November 1, 2008 at 6:30 PM

That is odd.

Yes it is thats for I don’t know what to think.

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 6:30 PM

Even though it will be tough to defeat a corrupt media in three presidential elections in a row, it can be done. Get out and vote!

Travis1 on November 1, 2008 at 6:31 PM

Oh,for the love that is all pure and right!

Team Maverick/SarahCuda,its tight,real tight!

Forget this so-called 10 pts.

Come Tesday morning,the tricky,dirty MSM will
say Hopey is up by 30!!

Don’t get suckerd——————-have ye faith,
U.S.S.Hot Air Crew!!!!!!!!:)

canopfor on November 1, 2008 at 6:32 PM

clemycali:

It might just be because you are in California, there are more people there so they might be get polled more.

I live in rural Indiana. No one even remembers we are out here.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:34 PM

I screen my calls. I have caller ID and an answering machine. I have never done a poll. I only know one person who says he has.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:17 PM

As has been observed many times, pollsters are having to make many more calls than they used to in order to create the same sized samples. The trustworthiness of their results depends on the assumption that there is no significant (systematically results-skewing) difference between on the one hand the 1,000 people polled out of 10,000 calls that they’re depending on now, and on the other hand the 1,000 people polled out of 5,000 calls they they might have depended on 10 years ago.

If the polls prove to be systematically skewed to the left as compared to the actual voting results, the above will be one possible factor among many that will have to be examined and, if practicable, corrected for next time around. If the Battleground Poll (McCain -1 in key states, -3 nationally, high undecideds) proves more accurate than Gallup, then their methods, including the bipartisan nature of the polling firm itself and the implication of reduced bias throughout the organization, will be something that others will have to look at more closely.

I find Rasmussens’s assumptions this year to be highly suspect. If he dropped his backward-looking and self-defeating sample-weighting formula, and instead weighed historically (according to partisan breakdowns for ‘06 or ‘04), his identical polls would have been consistently showing a Margin of Error race or McCain lead both nationally and in key states.

Zogby is all over the map. In some ways his poll-cooking recipe makes a lot of sense, but his methodology and practices are also suspect.

CK MacLeod on November 1, 2008 at 6:36 PM

I live in rural Indiana. No one even remembers we are out here.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:34 PM

One reason you may not ever have been polled, aside from the fact that lots of people have not ever been polled, is that Indiana, as I understand it, has very strict Do Not Call laws that, unlike in some states, affect pollsters as well.

CK MacLeod on November 1, 2008 at 6:37 PM

Swing State of New Mexico, home of the illegal alien and democratic volunteer voter base.

We get a few calls, but they don’t want to talk to republicans. I have been hung up on so many times when the ask if I am a republican. They seem to want to poll Dems.

I even got a call from the Democratic Party, asking me to vote for the One.

I called them back and told them that they are NEVER to call here again peddling their socialist candidate. I told the poor girl that I would rather chew off my arm than vote for that socialist. I told her she was crazy to volunteer for such a poor excuse for a candidate. When she went into her moonbat speech, I hung up on her.

Vote for Palin…vote against Obama. Just Vote.
And don’t forget your local and congress.
REAL change starts from the beginning.

HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 6:37 PM

Terrye

It does not make any sense to me. California is solid democrat in any presidential election. And I think the last time it voted for a republican it was when Ronald Reagan was running for president. About 30 years ago. So it does not make sense to poll here. But if you poll more people in California, New York, New Jersy, states that tend to vote more democrat and less people lets say in Indiana or Nebraska that tend to vote mostly republican you are going to have strange results in the polls. I can see no other explanation.

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 6:40 PM

I finally was polled via telephone and of course chose Obama. I voted early last week and of course voted McCain/Palin. Don’t believe the polls.

Pat in NC on November 1, 2008 at 6:42 PM

f the polls prove to be systematically skewed to the left as compared to the actual voting results, the above will be one possible factor among many that will have to be examined and, if practicable, corrected for next time around.

CK MacLeod on November 1, 2008 at 6:36 PM

I think it may be something as simple as “Don’t have hundreds of organizations doing thousands of polls.” That would cut down on the number of hangups and no answers. Normal people don’t like being called for the same thing over and over again. I say normal people because the Obots probably don’t care as they have nothing else to do anyway.

Like I said before, Rush mentioned Thursday that there were as many polls done in October 2008 as there were in all of 2004.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2008 at 6:43 PM

clemucali:

I think polsters call the areas they live in more than any other. They call urban areas in heavily populated states.

They have convinced themselves that so few people live in places like southern Indiana that we are not worth bothering.

But we rednecks vote.

You know I was reading that in urban areas there are highschools with a drop out rate of over 65%. That is outrageous. Say what you will about the sticks, our kids graduate. That makes me wonder how many of these people really bother to vote and how many of them just think someone else will take care of that for them.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:47 PM

Okay, I apologize.

However, how is this Hannity’s fault? Many people tried to save Schiavo. They failed.

Christoph on November 1, 2008 at 4:50 PM

You apologize for suggesting that his life is worth less than a dead woman’s because he dared to suggest that maybe she didn’t want to live in that condition.

I bet you make your God proud…your mom too. I hope and pray that you never have to make a life-ending decision.

He accepted your apology. I think it speaks to the overarching arrogance and obnoxiousness of evangelicals.

I’m Christian not insane. Good day to you not-so-kind Sir.

The Race Card on November 1, 2008 at 6:48 PM

HornetSting:

People actually hang up on you when you tell them are a Republican? That is just outrageous.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:49 PM

Everyone get a friggin’ grip. I’m only going to say this once, and I’m going to say it slow.

Screw the polls.

Good, bad, or indifferent… it doesn’t matter. Screw ‘em.

Come Wednesday morning, the two big news stories will be “How could the polls have been so off?” and “Why is America so racist?”

Bank on it. McCain will be the next president.

Drunken Angry Clown on November 1, 2008 at 6:50 PM

Many people tried to save Schiavo.

Many people let others die daily. Why her? POLITICS. POLITICS. POLITICS!

When was the last time you advocated on behalf of someone in such poor health? Whom was the last person unknown to you for which displayed such caring? Where was the rally?

Hypocrites with crosses are still hypocrites.

The Race Card on November 1, 2008 at 6:51 PM

My wife got poled this morning.

The Race Card on November 1, 2008 at 6:52 PM

HornetSting:

People actually hang up on you when you tell them are a Republican? That is just outrageous.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:49 PM

Yeah, they say…”Don’t need you, we have enough republican women.”
This is the home of Fat A$$, bloated Bill “$120K” Richardson and his illegal alien motor voter program.
We usually don’t know for DAYS if a person won or lost in an election…
I told my husband it is because they have to count on their toes and fingers….the Land Of Retardement…Indeed!

HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 6:52 PM

You know I was reading that in urban areas there are highschools with a drop out rate of over 65%. That is outrageous. Say what you will about the sticks, our kids graduate. That makes me wonder how many of these people really bother to vote and how many of them just think someone else will take care of that for them.

65% drop out rate in the inner cities is something usual. California, Los Angeles esspecially, has a rate of about 45%. The tragedy is that when these people vote they vote democrat because they think that the state has to take care of them. The state gives them food stamps, social security checks and so on. They have an equal sign between the provider, the state, and the democrats. Thats all. No secret here.

clemycali on November 1, 2008 at 6:53 PM

HornetSting:

Yes, I remember back in 2000 when they were counting votes in New Mexico. It was almost as complicated as the hanging chads in Florida.

Well, I guess they have their quotas.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:55 PM

Yes, I remember back in 2000 when they were counting votes in New Mexico. It was almost as complicated as the hanging chads in Florida.

Well, I guess they have their quotas.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:55 PM

They lose count and have to keep starting over.

HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 6:57 PM

Hypocrites with crosses are still hypocrites.

Yeah!

Did you even leave a 15% tip? I thought not!

Spirit of 1776 on November 1, 2008 at 6:58 PM

My wife got poled this morning. – The Race Card on November 1, 2008 at 6:52 PM

I’d pay real money for the video.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 6:59 PM

clemcali:

It was a few months ago {maybe I should google it} there were new numbers out putting the drop out rates in urban areas at such high levels I really wondered if they could be right.

Too many people think they are supposed to be taken care of and it breeds resentment. I have older clients who were happy to see that drug prescription plan when it first came along but now they are complaining that they have to pay a deductible. They want it all for nothing I guess and they complain all the time. I ask one woman if she thinks government supported means free. She went off on me and told me that she had paid taxes for years, etc. She is right to a point, but people never realize that they usually get back a lot more than they paid in.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 6:59 PM

HornetSting:

That is just sad.

Terrye on November 1, 2008 at 7:00 PM

Whatever nationality I am, at least I know who the Canadian Prime Minister is. Palin doesn’t.
Dave Rywall on November 1, 2008 at 5:12 PM

Canaduh: the best at being north of the United States.

Let’s roll.

ex-Democrat on November 1, 2008 at 7:00 PM

Hypocrites with crosses are still hypocrites. – The Race Card on November 1, 2008 at 6:51 PM

You don’t know the meaning of the word hypocrite.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 7:00 PM

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