For a while, I even had an old IBM 6430 transistor and relay logic computer in my garage that I wrote machine language code for (for fun). I still have my first computer, a Sinclair Basic computer. That was fun too! My first PC was a Compaq luggable, long deceased. We currently have 4 working computers in the house.

Professionally, I helped design one of the first Microprocessor based control boards for industrial control use. Later, I designed a Micro RTU to replace old transistor logic units in the field.

It has been an amazing trip, these past 40 years. And so much is yet to come.

On the coming economy: I got into cash a a while back when the market was peaking. I left some profits on the table, but I have lost 0$ lately. A couple of years ago when the gold ETF GLD was started I bought some, and soon wound up with 1000 shares across our three accounts. Gold was $300 then and I sold this last year when it hit near $1000. Gold has dropped now, and it needs to be part of your portfolio considering the market as it is and will be. There are now Options on GLD. I have bought calls as a less risky way to cover the expected coming rise in prices. If it doesn’t happen, I’m not out much.

On 401Ks: See if your company will let you transfer some or all of your account into a RIRA. You can do that with no penalty.

Good luck!

I don’t disagree with the basic premise, but it’s not a simple exponetial curve.

As a software developer interested in AI, I can assure you that the reason my computer doesn’t write it’s own posts isn’t because it isn’t 16x faster than 4 years ago (it is). It’s because no one yet knows how to develop the software that writes it’s own original posts, and it’s much closer than it was 4 years ago. It’s not simply a matter of transistor density.

Simple extrapolation from recent trends doesn’t always match long-term curves.

DarkCurrent on October 30, 2008 at 2:13 PM

I too am a software developer, among many other things. I wasn’t implying that just because processors have gotten exponentially faster and more capable that that alone would be responsible for the advancement of AI. Sorry if you misunderstood.

I agree with you that AI is more about programming than processor speed, although the speed increases make branching logic much quicker.

and it’s much closer than it was 4 years ago.

isn’t

techno_barbarian on October 30, 2008 at 2:00 PM

I don’t disagree with the basic premise, but it’s not a simple exponetial curve.

As a software developer interested in AI, I can assure you that the reason my computer doesn’t write it’s own posts isn’t because it isn’t 16x faster than 4 years ago (it is). It’s because no one yet knows how to develop the software that writes it’s own original posts, and it’s much closer than it was 4 years ago. It’s not simply a matter of transistor density.

Simple extrapolation from recent trends doesn’t always match long-term curves.

I like Kurzweil, but if his extrapolations where entirely accurate by now my PC should have it’s own HA account and be posting here all by itself.

DarkCurrent on October 30, 2008 at 1:27 PM

Actually, your PC is right on schedule, as it is a direct result of Moore’s Law. An example of the progress that processing capacity has reached would be a 747 able to fly around the world on a thimble-full of fuel.

And besides, what you’re talking about is AI, and that does NOT follow Moore’s Law as it is more software development vs hardware intelligence.

No doubt about it, we are on the precipice of some really astonishing advances.

http://woody.typepad.com/my_weblog/2008/10/democrat-policies-dont-affect-just-the-rich.html

“The rich always have options, it’s the middle class that will be stuck between Barack and a hard place.”

techno_barbarian on October 30, 2008 at 11:45 AM

I like Kurzweil, but if his extrapolations where entirely accurate by now my PC should have it’s own HA account and be posting here all by itself.

…In my view, substantial investment in R&D to develop specific battery and power transmission technologies has the better long term prospects for return.

ernesto on October 30, 2008 at 11:08 AM

Better batteries are great, but you have to produce energy to store in your batteries in the first place. Where should that come from?

One day said we should “hammer” NAFTA deal. Lately he lied about official in his camp calling the Canadian embassy to initiate talks on NAFTA.

Shown on CTV

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRgiHRqOywA

A good timely post, Ed. Every Presidential election where the outcome is in doubt we’ve seen this happen,but always on a much smaller scale. This year it’s a sunami rather than a wave.
My co-workers ask what they should do with their 401ks. I suggest they ride it out, long term investment, markets will come back…but if Obama gets in, what do I tell them?What should I do myself? I’m hanging tough, but let me tell you, it is tough.

Doug on October 30, 2008 at 10:22 AM

I hear ya! Riding it out only works if my 401k doesn’t disappear into the government purse. What to do if this 401k change actually happens because I can’t cash out 1/2 of 401k (the company match 1/2) while still empolyed there. So I end up losing it so some deadbeat stiff gets a check off my sacrifices from the last 10 years by contributing 15% of my pay.

It had to be repealed because people quit buying “Luxury Items” and the manufacturers of such items were going out of business.

These clowns never learn.

techno_barbarian on October 30, 2008 at 11:49 AM

Thanks for the link. I remember when the Kurzweil K250 came out in the 1980’s. It really changed way musicians thought about electronic instruments. He’s a brilliant and creative guy.

It’s doubtfull whether we will ever make a solar cell that will produce enough energy during it’s life, to equal the energy that went into making it.

MarkTheGreat on October 30, 2008 at 11:34 AM

You may be correct, but ever advancing technology, economies of scale, and mass production at the nano scale are poised to make some truely fantastic thing possible.

I wouldn’t write off solar. I’m not willing to write off any energy techology other than corn-based ethanol.

As for Palin, it’s about core principles and your world view when it comes to foreign policy, not how many world leaders you sipped tea with and whispered sinister plots with. Obama does NOT have this country’s interests in his mind. He’s a globalist, United Nations kind of guy who has talked of unilateral disarmament, withdrawing from the world scene and letting Israel take the beating the Obama wishes upon her. His buddies are talking about slashing the military by 25%. Yeah, that’s real good foreign policy there, genius.

Moore’s Law does not apply to solar, since it doesn’t involve etching transistors.

MarkTheGreat on October 30, 2008 at 11:33 AM

Actually it does, MTG, due to the processing and manufacturing technologies that will make much more efficient carbon nanotube solar collectors possible.

Here’s a link you might find interesting: Ray Kurzweil at the 2005 TED conference talking about exponential changes.

It’s doubtfull whether we will ever make a solar cell that will produce enough energy during it’s life, to equal the energy that went into making it.

So long, and thanks for all the fish.
That’s not the best song to have stuck in one’s head. Thanks.

Anna on October 30, 2008 at 10:54 AM

That’s a song? I thouht it was a line from the book (and movie) “The Restaurant at the End of the Universe.”

Or was that the second book, I can’t remember somone help me out here…

If Obama gets his way this recession depression is going to be around for a looooong time.

Mr. Joe on October 30, 2008 at 10:16 AM

I hope you don’t mind but I FIFY as I believe if Obambi is elected it will be much worse than a recession…

Very few small business owners pay capital gains taxes. They take their income as ordinary income.

So Obama is lying in this claim.

MarkTheGreat on October 30, 2008 at 11:23 AM

The tax proposal doesn’t address income that is paid out of the business. It addresses the ultimate sale of the business for entrepreneurs who look to grow and sell a business.

as the exponential Moore’s Law aspects of solar

Moore’s Law does not apply to solar, since it doesn’t involve etching transistors.

offshore drilling and ANWR wont provide anywhere near the amount of oil we consume, and could easily be offset by an OPEC production cut…should i continue?

ernesto on October 30, 2008 at 11:17 AM

opec is lowering their production rates right now and oil is still going down.

And once again, you’re buying in to the ridiculous 3% of the world’s oil estimate. I don’t think that’s actually the case.