Hot Air poll: Who’s going to win?

posted at 12:48 pm on October 30, 2008 by Allahpundit

In which a blogger strapped for content goes gimmicky. Fear not, we’ll have an official predictions thread on Monday. I’m just curious what people are thinking at the moment — and whether I can predict the final results.

My guesses, in order: 55/14/30/<1. Go for it.

Blowback

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McCain wins for the November Surprise.

As an Arizona Cardinals fan, I’m getting pretty good at at dealing with the cycle of irrational hope and inevitable disappointment, though.

RightOFLeft on October 30, 2008 at 2:07 PM

Wow, the astroturfers are out in full form today.

carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 1:25 PM

They’re scared. Very…very…scared. Good. Let’s frighten the little Bambis some more.

Matt Helm on October 30, 2008 at 2:07 PM

Palin/McCain wins. Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:08 PM

Astroturfer Drywall loses. Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:09 PM

Allahpundit wins. Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:09 PM

I win on Intrade.com.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:10 PM

The United Sates of America wins.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:11 PM

Democrats/Liberals lose.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:11 PM

Obama loses.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:11 PM

Rush Limbaugh is right.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:12 PM

I wonder if ACORN is going to register Hotair voters with votes like this?

eaglewingz08 on October 30, 2008 at 2:13 PM

Justice always prevails.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:13 PM

Liberals always lie.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:13 PM

Liberals are losers.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Speedwagon82 on October 30, 2008 at 2:06 PM

Yup, abortion and gay marriage are the 2 big issues w/ the religious right, they just have to stick their noses in peoples bedrooms don’t they? If they minded their own damn business this country would be better off.

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Obama is a lier.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:14 PM

As an Arizona Cardinals fan, I’m getting pretty good at at dealing with the cycle of irrational hope and inevitable disappointment, though.

RightOFLeft on October 30, 2008 at 2:07 PM

The Cardinals are doing surprisingly well this year.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:14 PM

I also read that in several polls the refusals to be polled is around 70 to 80 percent, meaning the sample size is only around thirty or twenty self selected population. So how the margin of error can only be 4 percent when 80 percent aren’t answering is but another mystery of this election.

eaglewingz08 on October 30, 2008 at 2:15 PM

To avoid ‘racism’ labels and looking bad to family and friends many people say publically they will vote for Obama. In the the privacy of the the voting booth they will vote for McCain.

Helloyawl on October 30, 2008 at 2:15 PM

I’m going to be calling the county recorder on my lunch break to figure out why my name isn’t in the voter database. If things don’t get straightened out, sadly I won’t be able to vote – AZ requires registration 29 days in advance of an election. I filled out my paperwork and sent it in back in the summer, but it seems things haven’t been properly filed, or something.

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:31 PM

Grue, you go there and raise holy hell. Mistakes happen with the registrations. I am going to be an election judge and here in Texas I have to let everyone who wants to vote, vote. Of course it will be by provisional ballot but if it is a close race those votes will be counted if it can be verified that you were eligible. Call your election office ASAP and Good Luck!

mrsmwp on October 30, 2008 at 2:15 PM

This election is not over until it’s over.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:15 PM

Next question.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:16 PM

Yup, abortion and gay marriage are the 2 big issues w/ the religious right, they just have to stick their noses in peoples bedrooms don’t they? If they minded their own damn business this country would be better off. – Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Abortion involves the willing termination of an unborn human being. This has nothing to do with the bedroom.

Gay marriage involves legitimizing sexual perversion and elevating to the level of man and wife, male and female. If two men want to have sex in the privacy of their home, let them. I have no quarrel with them. I just have no desire to put the imprimatur of societal normalcy on that which is abnormal.

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 2:18 PM

Yup, abortion and gay marriage are the 2 big issues w/ the religious right, they just have to stick their noses in peoples bedrooms don’t they? If they minded their own damn business this country would be better off.

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Yes, caring more for the life of an infant child is less important than “keeping our noses out of people’s bedrooms”.

Bite me you disgusting child-killing cur.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:18 PM

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 2:18 PM

Nail, meet hammer.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:19 PM

The Cardinals are doing surprisingly well this year.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:14 PM

They’re just getting our expectations up to inflict the maximum heartache on the fans. Remember, the Cardinals team motto is, “We let ‘em off the hook!”

RightOFLeft on October 30, 2008 at 2:20 PM

Nail, meet hammer. – Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:19 PM

One of these days I hope to visit the attic and shake your hand, young man.

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 2:20 PM

RightOFLeft on October 30, 2008 at 2:20 PM

LOL…

One of these days I hope to visit the attic and shake your hand, young man.

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 2:20 PM

The feeling is mutual, good sir. Just turn off the light on your way up.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:21 PM

I don’t see McCain’s poll numbers as significantly worse than the Bush/Kerry matchup; which as I recall had Bush losing, even through the exit polls by a couple points.

So I think McCain can/will pull this one out. But I suspect the Blue state voter turnout will potentially be enough outside of battleground states to give Obama the Popular vote.

gekkobear on October 30, 2008 at 2:22 PM

I predict Obama wins it all. These are the last days, y’know.

apacalyps on October 30, 2008 at 2:23 PM

The feeling is mutual, good sir. Just turn off the light on your way up. Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:21 PM

*shudders*

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 2:23 PM

*shudders*

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 2:23 PM

Relax, I have enough Moonbat jerky up here to last me all winter.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:25 PM

My point is that abortion will not be ended in this country no matter how many pro-life Presidents, Vice-Presidents, Cabinet heads, or Congressmen we elect. Gay marriage is being decided by the states already, so I don’t see how Federal politics is going to change that.

Speedwagon82 on October 30, 2008 at 2:25 PM

Gay marriage is being decided by the states already, so I don’t see how Federal politics is going to change that.

Speedwagon82 on October 30, 2008 at 2:25 PM

That’s the way it should be.

That’s the way it should be for abortion too.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:26 PM

Can’t we all just get along?

LimeyGeek on October 30, 2008 at 2:28 PM

We get it.

Period!

Jim Treacher on October 30, 2008 at 2:28 PM

Good God! A majority of the people here, who slavishly follow the polls, think that with the polls showing a perceived insurmountable edge for Obama cannot bring themselves to admit the dismal picture their polls paint?

As of today, with no proof whatsoever, most think McCain will win both the electoral and popular vote. This doesn’t look good. In the event that Obama wins, I hope that these same folks don’t travel down the same road to moonbat nation that the wacky libs have been on for 8 years.

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 2:29 PM

Can’t we all just get along?

LimeyGeek on October 30, 2008 at 2:28 PM

The Left will not be satisfied until the government has subjected each and every one of us and imposed their view of “fairness”.

So no, we can’t.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:29 PM

Another comment

Period!

LimeyGeek on October 30, 2008 at 2:29 PM

Yup, abortion and gay marriage are the 2 big issues w/ the religious right, they just have to stick their noses in peoples bedrooms don’t they? If they minded their own damn business this country would be better off.

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:14 PM

If Prop 8 passes it will not be because of the religious right. It will be because of two things: (1) voters object to having their will (expressed in a vote 8 years ago) overturned by some judges (SF mayor’s gloating about bringing on gay marriage “whether they want it or not” didn’t help much, either) and (2) the black voters turning out for Obama are expected to support Prop 8.

Being against abortion is not a “religious right” issue and it’s certainly not a “bedroom” issue. Opposing contraception might be a “bedroom issue,” but abortion sure isnt’. Once there’s a pregnancy, there is a third life involved. It doesn’t take religious fundamentalism, or even a belief in God, to oppose taking that life.

I was/am concerned about the segment of Huckabee supporters (I hope they are in the minority) who do strike me as being rather intolerant about what I consider to be personal matters (as evidenced by the visceral attacks against Romney and some of the nasty threads this summer on Hot Air), but gay marriage and abortion are not good examples of the religious conservatives unduly influencing the Republican party, imho. I think you’re hurting your case by lumping these into other issues that really are arising from the religious right.

Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 2:30 PM

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:31 PM

Hey Grue, I didn’t realize you lived in AZ, me too. I live in Maricopa, it’s about 16 miles south of Chandler.

*already ate…burp*

Liberty or Death on October 30, 2008 at 2:30 PM

Good God! A majority of the people here, who slavishly follow the polls, think that with the polls showing a perceived insurmountable edge for Obama cannot bring themselves to admit the dismal picture their polls paint?

We don’t believe the polls. Simple as that.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:30 PM

Hey Grue, I didn’t realize you lived in AZ, me too. I live in Maricopa, it’s about 16 miles south of Chandler.

*already ate…burp*

Liberty or Death on October 30, 2008 at 2:30 PM

Middle Tempe myself, although at the moment I’m at work in north Scottsdale.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:31 PM

I think the nightmare scenario 269-269 is a real possibility. If McCain wins PA and the rest of the Bush states, but loses OH, VA and NV that gives us a tie.

Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:02 PM

That’s why Todd Palin’s been spending time in Maine.

Maine splits its Electoral Votes — there’s a chance it will go 3-1 for Obama instead of 4-0. Then the electoral college goes 270-268, with a narrow win for McCain.

FWIW, I think this is a really, really plausible scenario, too.

ClintACK on October 30, 2008 at 2:33 PM

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 2:29 PM

What possible “proof” can anyone have? How can I ‘prove’ that McCain will win? How can I ‘prove’ that Obama will win?

Polls have consistently favored dems, yet they still lost. Why should current polls, which are (a) questionable and (b) ‘tightening’, be viewed any differently?

Perhaps their confidence in McCain is anecdotal, and reflects their societal microcosms….how is that an invalid reflection?

Grow up and quit being condescending for the hell of it. It doesn’t make you look clever.

LimeyGeek on October 30, 2008 at 2:33 PM

McCain will never win the popular vote, and any Republican populists who dream of doing away with the electoral college should realize it’s the only thing keeping the GOP from permanent minority status.

The Republicans sealed its fate this time around when they nominated the best guy to go up against Hillary Clinton.

Like Bush in Iraq, there was no plan B.

sanguine4 on October 30, 2008 at 2:35 PM

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 2:18 PM

you don’t think sexual perversion takes place between males and females, even between married couples? sodomy is only possible between 2 males, is that what you think? cuz if u do there’s about a million internet sites i can direct you to…..

oh and the “sanctity of marriage” you guys act all pious about died along w/ quickie divorces and drive-thru vegas weddings, gimme an effin break!

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:35 PM

Good God! A majority of the people here, who slavishly follow the polls, think that with the polls showing a perceived insurmountable edge for Obama cannot bring themselves to admit the dismal picture their polls paint?

We don’t believe the polls. Simple as that.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:30 PM

In addendum, what do you mean “percieved insurmountable edge”??? Nearly all the polls have dropped into the margin of error! Even if we believed the polls, they all seem to be showing Obama dropping/McCain gaining/both of the above!

FAILURE: Try again.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:35 PM

Given that the Democrats have had 4 hours a week of free political advertising on Comedy Central for 2 years, we should be doing worse.

Speedwagon82 on October 30, 2008 at 2:36 PM

RightOFLeft on October 30, 2008 at 2:20 PM

I miss Whitey Herzog.

(Hey, does that make me a racist?)

I became a Cards fan in the 80′s when they specialized in fielding, stealing bases, and the small game. I don’t follow baseball anymore. It seems like the game has changed, thanks to steroids.

Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 2:36 PM

Good God! A majority of the people here, who slavishly follow the polls, think that with the polls showing a perceived insurmountable edge for Obama cannot bring themselves to admit the dismal picture their polls paint?

Da*n the polls…FULL SPEED AHEAD!!!

No Eeyoreism allowed!

Keep up hte Eeyoreism and defeatist moaning and groaning, and I’m going to make you listen to Lin Minmee from Robotech sing “We Will Win”–and you don’t want that…

So…smiles…positive vibes…and let’s get the job done.

Matt Helm on October 30, 2008 at 2:37 PM

I reserve opinion on who will win on Tuesday, mostly because I don’t want to get my hopes up.

However, the family and I will be attending the Palin rally this Saturday near Richmond – one of the (few) good things about living in a swing state, is that I got a final chance to go see her (I’ve been out of state the other times). The people I’ve talked to in their campaign headquarters are very upbeat and optimistic, and that’s good.

Anna on October 30, 2008 at 2:38 PM

The Republicans sealed its fate this time around when they nominated the best guy to go up against Hillary Clinton.

Yep, we underestimated how much white liberal guilt the caucus state Democrats had.

Speedwagon82 on October 30, 2008 at 2:39 PM

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 2:29 PM

csdeven is a an astroturfer hired by David Axelrod.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:44 PM

We don’t believe the polls. Simple as that.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:30 PM

I hear what you’re saying. I simply despise poll watching and the irrationality it creates.

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 2:45 PM

I’m a positive h…ha…hap.. happy astroturfer hired by myself.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:46 PM

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:46 PM

A tad overdone, pal ;)

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:50 PM

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:35 PM

The fact remains that sex between an adult male and an adult female is normal – as nature designed it to be. Sex between adult males or adult females is not normal, as it does nothing to procreate the species. You can no more argue against that than you can argue against the evolution of the species itself – possble only because males and females did the procreating.

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 2:53 PM

Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 2:30 PM

If Prop. 8 passes it will be mainly because of religious influence (esp. from OUTSIDE the state, specifically Utah and the Vatican) trying to reinstate a measure found unconstitutional by the CA Supreme Court, not by Gavin Newsom (and yes his gloating doesn’t help). and yes black Obama supporters overwhelmingly back the measure, so the Superdelegates will be to blame as well for choosing Barry over Hillary.

Even if Prop 8. passes, it will be overthrown again by the same Supreme Court, so we can go thru this in another 8 years yaaay how fun or you can accept the inevitable and give gays the equal rights they deserve now, your choice…..

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:55 PM

If Prop 8 passes it will not be because of the religious right. It will be because of two things: (1) voters object to having their will (expressed in a vote 8 years ago) overturned by some judges (SF mayor’s gloating about bringing on gay marriage “whether they want it or not” didn’t help much, either) and (2) the black voters turning out for Obama are expected to support Prop 8.

We should add that the teachers union donations to defeate prop 8 was not helpfull for those who wanted to see gay marriage legal. People are upset because of this. I forgot to mention the field trip of school children to assist a lesbian weding. One of the girls (it was the bride it was the groom?) was their teacher. I got mad and I don’t have children. Imagine how the parents are feeling.

clemycali on October 30, 2008 at 2:55 PM

LimeyGeek on October 30, 2008 at 2:33 PM

If you want anecdotal proof, just look at the ground game Obama has going. His get out the vote effort is much better than it was in 2004 and we have blacks getting involved like never before in history. If this massive voter registration fraud turns into actual votes, the dems benefit.

That alone should belay most of those votes. I’m not saying Obama will win, but putting the polling idiocy aside, there is verifiable data that doesn’t rely on polls that we can look at to make EDUCATED judgments.

Grow up? Perhaps you should ask questions as to the context of others comments before making yourself look careless in your responses?

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 2:56 PM

McCain wins electoral college and popular vote 47% (2235 votes)

Oh, there’s some wishful thinking go on here!

Tzetzes on October 30, 2008 at 2:58 PM

or you can accept the inevitable and give gays the equal rights they deserve now, your choice…..

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:55 PM

Like most liberals, you already reveal that you have a terribly, terribly skewed and incorrect definition of “rights”.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:59 PM

McCain wins electoral college and popular vote 47% (2235 votes)
Oh, there’s some wishful thinking go on here!

Tzetzes on October 30, 2008 at 2:58 PM

We’ve got some ACORNing going on, I don’t think we have that many people here.

:P

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:00 PM

The Republicans sealed its fate this time around when they nominated the best guy to go up against Hillary Clinton.

Like Bush in Iraq, there was no plan B.

sanguine4 on October 30, 2008 at 2:35 PM

Just out of curiosity…

Out of the candidates in the Primary, who would have done better against Obama?

ClintACK on October 30, 2008 at 3:02 PM

Like Bush in Iraq, there was no plan B.

sanguine4 on October 30, 2008 at 2:35 PM

News Flash: We Won.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:04 PM

Imagine how the parents are feeling.

clemycali on October 30, 2008 at 2:55 PM

As with every field trip, the kids got permission from their parents first. 2 families did not approve and their children sat w/ another class for that day. but yes the trip was inappropriate, and, again, not helpful to the cause. Remember, San Francisco represents the extreme, not the norm.

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 3:05 PM

Even if Prop 8. passes, it will be overthrown again by the same Supreme Court, so we can go thru this in another 8 years yaaay how fun or you can accept the inevitable and give gays the equal rights they deserve now, your choice…..

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:55 PM

Its an amendment to the state constitution.
Marriage has been a legal privilege (not a right) given to those who would be raising the next generation of Americans. If that has been abused, then it would call for some throttling back, not standing on the accelerator.

Count to 10 on October 30, 2008 at 3:08 PM

Marriage has been a legal privilege (not a right) given to those who would be raising the next generation of Americans. If that has been abused, then it would call for some throttling back, not standing on the accelerator.

Count to 10 on October 30, 2008 at 3:08 PM

Lots of hammering on nails today.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:13 PM

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:35 PM

If you are a poll believer, and I notice you are quoting polls, then it is clear that Obama’s edge is insurmountable. McCain has to overcome deficits in 6 or 7 states where he is behind. He has lost ground in many reliably red states, such as Montana, Virginia, etc. If half of those state polls are inaccurate and he wins them, that still leaves the rest as losses. Winning half is quite a feat, but winning all of them would take an historic comeback.

This is why I do not watch polls. My assessment is based on verifiable data. Such as money raised, crowds that attend rallies, fraudulent voters issues, get out the vote efforts etc. It isn’t proof, but it is an educated evaluation whereas those who think McCain will win both the popular and electoral vote are hoping that the educated evaluations based on phone calls are all wrong. In other words, mostly wishful thinking.

I hate to think that a majority, a even a slim majority, of Americans are so insanely ignorant that they will vote for Obama even after his history of associations, poor public record, and no experience has been reported on.

I also hate to think that a plurality of Americans are morons and will vote for that clown. But when the celebrities on American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, and other shows are more recognizable than the VP and Supreme Court justices, I feel fairly confident that the likely hood of an “Obama the celebrity” victory is a much more accurate evaluation that the polls we are getting.

And I doubt one single person on HA will disagree that most of these idiots who will vote for Obama are ignorant boobs.

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 3:18 PM

Da*n the polls…FULL SPEED AHEAD!!!

Matt Helm on October 30, 2008 at 2:37 PM

I’m with ya!

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 3:19 PM

Count to 10 on October 30, 2008 at 3:08 PM

then the government shouldn’t recognize marriage, period, because the tax breaks and legal rights that come with it are the reason these bans are found unconstitutional. take away the government privileges and the issue will die down don’t ya think?

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 3:19 PM

2235 votes

We’ve got some ACORNing going on, I don’t think we have that many people here.

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:00 PM

Ha! “The Nation Rejoices as Chairman Obama is Elected with 121% of the Vote!”

Tzetzes on October 30, 2008 at 3:20 PM

csdeven is a an astroturfer hired by David Axelrod.

Period.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:44 PM

See? This is what I’m talking about. The highway to moonbat nation looks like it will be populated with the same type of people who never got over the fact that Fred was the worst possible candidate.

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 3:22 PM

The only thing that will matter is the first iffy state for the Messiah- NH comes to mind.
If McCain wins NH he is going to win.
Likewise, if Barry is close in NC or IN- he has motivated his base and it will be an ominous sign.

jjshaka on October 30, 2008 at 3:23 PM

Well folks sad to say but it looks like I’ll be sitting this one out.

Whatever happened with my application back in the summer, the voting records office has nothing on it. The only information at my address is for my former roommate, and nothing matching my name shows up in their files. According to the operator, there’s nothing that can be done, and it’s too late to register.

You’ll have to fight on without me, given a chance though I’ll be in the fray for 2010… if elections are still going then…

*lurks*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:25 PM

then the government shouldn’t recognize marriage, period, because the tax breaks and legal rights that come with it are the reason these bans are found unconstitutional. take away the government privileges and the issue will die down don’t ya think?

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 3:19 PM

One option with which I am sympathetic. However, it is clearly in the interest of the general public to encourage nuclear families, and it violates no one’s rights for privileges to be granted to this end.

Count to 10 on October 30, 2008 at 3:26 PM

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 3:19 PM

Yes, typical leftist tactic. “Give us everything we want, or we’ll take away everything you want. No compromise.”

Shoo.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:27 PM

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:25 PM

You should still be able to cast a provisional ballot, right?

Count to 10 on October 30, 2008 at 3:27 PM

The only thing that will matter is the first iffy state for the Messiah- NH comes to mind.
If McCain wins NH he is going to win.
Likewise, if Barry is close in NC or IN- he has motivated his base and it will be an ominous sign.

jjshaka on October 30, 2008 at 3:23 PM

Are you going to watch all day? I haven’t decided, but for my own sanity, I think I’ll take my wife to dinner and a movie. By the time we get back, the east coast states will be closed and we’ll know if the Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada results are in play.

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 3:28 PM

… they just have to stick their noses in peoples bedrooms don’t they?

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Do you get your abortions in your bedroom, you infant-murdering skank?

Jaibones on October 30, 2008 at 3:28 PM

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 3:19 PM

Your logic is on a par with your grammar.

Jaibones on October 30, 2008 at 3:30 PM

If Prop. 8 passes it will be mainly because of religious influence (esp. from OUTSIDE the state, specifically Utah and the Vatican) trying to reinstate a measure found unconstitutional by the CA Supreme Court, not by Gavin Newsom (and yes his gloating doesn’t help). and yes black Obama supporters overwhelmingly back the measure, so the Superdelegates will be to blame as well for choosing Barry over Hillary.
Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:55 PM

[emphasis mine]

I moved to CA last year, so I was not here for the first vote on this, but from what I’ve observed, there is popular support for Proposition 8 from people of all backgrounds who voted in 2000 and who are frustrated with the judges’ ruling (and Newsom’s gloating when he conducted the first gay marriages). I have not detected undue influence from Utah (I assume you mean Mormons… I know there is a relatively large Mormon community in CA, but not that large so I really doubt they are affecting the vote much) or Rome (and I’m Catholic). It’s interesting that you do not throw the blame on the blacks who oppose it, even though it is very likely they, too, are being guided by their religious convictions.

I’m voting for Prop 8 because (1) I object to how gay marriage was started here, over the voters’ objections; (2) I think legal rights on gay couples are sufficiently available without redefining marriage; and mostly because (3) society needs to address a number of serious ramifications that will arise from a redefinition of marriage.

I have yet to hear how polygamy would be preventable if gay marriage is allowed. The main argument I’ve heard is that it is not an issue because not many people will request it… but that is a poor argument. The Brits, who do not allow polygamy, are already headed down the slippery slope by allowing greater ‘welfare’ benefits to multi-spousal families. Does that sound familiar to anyone? Didn’t we start down the path to gay marriage through benefits to domestic partners?

I know some gay couples/families and I appreciate the frustration they feel. I do not want to interfere with their ability to build a life together. But I do not think it is advisable to redefine marriage for one minority group without considering the broader impacts on society.

I hope you can appreciate that even secular conservatives, which I consider myself to be (in terms of how I want my government to function, not necessarily my personal convictions), also have real concerns about gay marriage. I think you will have more luck convincing people of your position if you can tone down your anti-religion vibes.

Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 3:31 PM

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:35 PM

If you are a poll believer, and I notice you are quoting polls, then it is clear that Obama’s edge is insurmountable. McCain has to overcome deficits in 6 or 7 states where he is behind. He has lost ground in many reliably red states, such as Montana, Virginia, etc. If half of those state polls are inaccurate and he wins them, that still leaves the rest as losses. Winning half is quite a feat, but winning all of them would take an historic comeback.

This is why I do not watch polls. My assessment is based on verifiable data. Such as money raised, crowds that attend rallies, fraudulent voters issues, get out the vote efforts etc. It isn’t proof, but it is an educated evaluation whereas those who think McCain will win both the popular and electoral vote are hoping that the educated evaluations based on phone calls are all wrong. In other words, mostly wishful thinking.

I hate to think that a majority, a even a slim majority, of Americans are so insanely ignorant that they will vote for Obama even after his history of associations, poor public record, and no experience has been reported on.

I also hate to think that a plurality of Americans are morons and will vote for that clown. But when the celebrities on American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, and other shows are more recognizable than the VP and Supreme Court justices, I feel fairly confident that the likely hood of an “Obama the celebrity” victory is a much more accurate evaluation that the polls we are getting.

And I doubt one single person on HA will disagree that most of these idiots who will vote for Obama are ignorant boobs.

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 3:18 PM

Shut up already!!

You said: “This is why I do not watch polls.”

So then why are you quoting polls or rebutting those who do? Everything you said in there is poll related, therefore anecdotal only.

And by the way, you are the most embarrassing conservative boob in here as proven during the primary debates.

Get over it..

…Romney lost.

I have.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 3:32 PM

Next question.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 3:33 PM

You should still be able to cast a provisional ballot, right?

Count to 10 on October 30, 2008 at 3:27 PM

A what? Enlighten me.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:39 PM

I am convinced the Obama campaign is mostly smoke and mirrors. They have successfully fooled some of the people some of the time…you can’t get fooled again.

sleepy-beans on October 30, 2008 at 3:40 PM

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 3:18 PM

I think there’s been a miscommunication.

I don’t believe a word of the polls, and since your first post started with “how can you people be betting on a McCain win because of the polls saying Obama has a lead” I assumed you did believe polls.

My belief that McCain will win in the end – even if Obama takes the popular vote – is more based on a gut feeling than anything. And a bit augmented by the fact that I’m not the only one with such a feeling. That’s just me though.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:43 PM

You should still be able to cast a provisional ballot, right?

Count to 10 on October 30, 2008 at 3:27 PM

A what? Enlighten me.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:39 PM

This may help.

In CA we are given a receipt when we register in case the paperwork doesn’t come through the mail on time. I don’t suppose you have a copy.

I wonder if you could still vote in your old precinct? Probably not, but you might want to check.

FAQ About Voter ID Requirements

If you go to vote without acceptable ID as indicated above, you won’t be turned away but you will be given a provisional ballot. That means that you have 5 days days after a Federal General election and three (3) days after any other election to provide the correct identification or your ballot will not count.
There are other cards or documents you may have that have your photo on them, like credit cards, membership cards, etc. Those are not government issued IDs and are not acceptable for the purposes of voting.
If you want to vote, any form of ID you present, whether it is one photo ID, or two pieces of other ID, all must have both your name and address on them. For instance, a passport is not acceptable. ID with only a spouse’s name (not yours) and address are not acceptable.
If you have completed a provisional ballot, and you want to have your ballot count, you must appear at the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office (if you vote in Maricopa County) and present the proper ID. Here are the locations of the Maricopa County Recorder. There are also other specially designated locations where you can present the required documents.
If you choose to bring two non-photo IDs, they have to be from different sources. For instance, a bank statement with your name and address from two different months is not acceptable.
If the ID you present has an address that doesn’t match the one on file with the election officials, you will be given a provisional ballot, but in this case you don’t have to return with different documents. Election officials will verify the ballot after the fact.
Printing online statements from utilities is acceptable, as long as they meet the criteria for acceptable ID.
Photocopies of statements issued in the names of two people are acceptable, like bank statements or phone bills.
A person’s name will be considered as matching the election department’s records if it is reasonably close. If I present a current bank statement and a current phone bill with my address and the name Judy Hedding, that will be acceptable if the name on the election register appears as Judith Hedding.
If an ID has an expiration date, and it has expired, it is no longer valid.
No official at any polling place will keep any forms of identification presented.

Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 3:47 PM

This may help.

In CA we are given a receipt when we register in case the paperwork doesn’t come through the mail on time. I don’t suppose you have a copy.

AH. Yes Phoenix has this, but I can’t – my original voting application was never recieved or processed, so I essentially never registered to vote according to their records. In Phoenix it’s essentially used only for address and name changes, authorizing old IDs, etc., not for allowing someone whose application didn’t go through for some reason to vote anyway.

I wonder if you could still vote in your old precinct? Probably not, but you might want to check.

I was never registered to vote before, so no.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:50 PM

Hope and Change

Jaibones on October 30, 2008 at 3:56 PM

Shut up already!!

You said: “This is why I do not watch polls.”

So then why are you quoting polls or rebutting those who do? Everything you said in there is poll related, therefore anecdotal only.

And by the way, you are the most embarrassing conservative boob in here as proven during the primary debates.

Get over it..

…Romney lost.

I have.

Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 3:32 PM

You are off the reservation dude. You are so confused that you are misreading my meaning concerning polls. Grue understood and responded appropriately.

You’re over it? Then what is driving your incomprehensible blathering? I suspect you still think Fred was screwed over and cannot face the fact that he was, is, and will always be too flawed to be the president.

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 3:58 PM

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:43 PM

OK cool. I’m in the same place. My mind tells me McCain should win in a landslide, but my experience with most people who are going to vote for Obama is that they are uninformed nincompoops who judge him the way the judge the celebrities on the TV shows I mentioned. Then I have my hope that when people pull the curtain behind them, reality will set in, rational thought will ensue and they’ll vote for McCain.

csdeven on October 30, 2008 at 4:03 PM

I think you will have more luck convincing people of your position if you can tone down your anti-religion vibes.

Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 3:31 PM

since the churches are putting up about 50% of the cash to pass Prop. 8, there’s no chance of that happening.

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 4:06 PM

Your logic is on a par with your grammar.

Jaibones on October 30, 2008 at 3:30 PM

who gives an eff what u think?

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 4:07 PM

who gives an eff what u think?

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 4:07 PM

Who gives an “eff” what YOU think, who can’t even be bothered to spell out a three-letter word?

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 4:10 PM

Yup, abortion and gay marriage are the 2 big issues w/ the religious right, they just have to stick their noses in peoples bedrooms don’t they? If they minded their own damn business this country would be better off. – Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Marriage is not a right, it is a privilege. If you do not meet the requirements, you have no claim to the privilege. If you don’t like it, move somewhere else.

Abortion is a simple issue, Unless the child is guilty of a crime, the child is the only one that has the right to decide.

You braindead liberals are all the same. You have absolutely no concept or understanding of causality or consequence. You people run around all day thinking that you can circumvent naturally occurring consequence. When someone calls you out on it, you demonize their religion.

I’m not worried about your existence though, natural selection does exist in some form, and eventually self-destructive liberal behavior will wipe out the weak liberal members of society.

Population control at it’s finest.

leetpriest on October 30, 2008 at 4:10 PM

Yes, typical leftist tactic. “Give us everything we want, or we’ll take away everything you want. No compromise.”

Shoo.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:27 PM

Just asking for everything to be fair and square, that’s all, nothing more and nothing less.

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 4:11 PM

Population control at it’s finest.

leetpriest on October 30, 2008 at 4:10 PM

aww so you are pro-choice too, awesome!

Noneya on October 30, 2008 at 4:13 PM

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