Hot Air poll: Who’s going to win?
posted at 12:48 pm on October 30, 2008 by Allahpundit
In which a blogger strapped for content goes gimmicky. Fear not, we’ll have an official predictions thread on Monday. I’m just curious what people are thinking at the moment — and whether I can predict the final results.
My guesses, in order: 55/14/30/<1. Go for it.
Blowback
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So…..uhm……how did you vote, Allah?
FiveWays on October 30, 2008 at 1:17 PM
In which case Pelosi’s gang will vote for Obama, and the Sanate will go for McCain, with Mr. Cheney deciding the outcome.
Psycho wards couldn’t cope…
Entelechy on October 30, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Obama will win the p.v.; McCain gets electoral college and the presidency. It will be close.
Richard Romano on October 30, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Jay12 also wrote a very nasty broadside against Joe the Plumber at one point.
I’m sure lots of McCain volunteers are engaged in such character assassination.
Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Granted, but not nearly as ugly as it will become if Obama wins EV.
petefrt on October 30, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Click the empty circle button next to the option you want, then click the “vote” button.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:18 PM
The level of sophistication here underwhelms me. Some moron thinks that you have to be a lemming to support McCain; you can never criticize his stupid campaign moves?
jay12 on October 30, 2008 at 1:18 PM
*clicks keys with left hand*
Google on
*clicks keys with right hand*
Google off
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:19 PM
That’s all you need to know, Grue-san.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:19 PM
FOX NEWS POLL:
47-44 McCain has gained 6 points in a week!
joepub on October 30, 2008 at 1:19 PM
Even RUSH agreed, as I, that last nights infomercial was freakin depressing. Some people don’t realize once you go to the handout/spoonfeeding mode, it will take THAT much more effort to get off of the spoonfeeding. It will take EFFORT and DESIRE to get off of spoonfeeding. Those voting for Obamas plans basically want to be spoonfed. Theres nothing temporary on what he wants to do. He wants us to be dependent and not self motivated.
Think of the ‘taking from the rich and giving to the poor’ for a moment. How long can that last? Only as long until there’s no more rich to take from. Then there’s no high or low, so how will this be able to sustain itself?
I’m also a little appalled he’s using white folks in his videos. Thats the vote he’s after apparently.
RUSH is playing excerpts from the infomercial and I may actually have to turn RUSH off today because the music that was used is pulling me down too much.
johnnyU on October 30, 2008 at 1:19 PM
5ways: he’s too hard working to vote, but if he had the time, I would guess that it would be a write in (kirsten powers ;-)
Christine on October 30, 2008 at 1:20 PM
I play Metallica during the commercial breaks, it helps. :)
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:20 PM
This isn’t a wish list, guys. Obama is going to win in a landslide. The economy—and his inability to blame it on the Dems—killed McCain.
fleiter on October 30, 2008 at 1:20 PM
Sheesh, some of this backward bunch cannot even identify parody, even if it’s an obvious mockery of MoveOn character assassins.
jay12 on October 30, 2008 at 1:21 PM
Ca may be a surprise. McCain will not win it but should be close with prop 8 on the ballot
unseen on October 30, 2008 at 1:22 PM
What’s amusing is that you truly seem to believe you’re fooling us.
Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Ignore me, thought he asked “How DO you vote” not “how DID you vote”.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Like that straving kids commercial where you hear “In the Arms of an Angel” in the background. It’s a beautiful song, and depressing enough to listen to even when you aren’t subjected to pictures of children in abject poverty.
Meh…most people did what I do: change the farking channel.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:22 PM
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZT.
Thank you for playing, try again next time.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Correction – s/b the Senate will vote for McCain, of course.
Note to self – preview s/b my friend.
Entelechy on October 30, 2008 at 1:23 PM
Dude, Slu busted you. Give it up you little turfer. Go tell your lib buddies that your undercover op backfired and we’re more fired up to elect McCain than ever.
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 1:23 PM
Great news!
carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 1:23 PM
And a lot of Republicans and conservatives I know refer to other conservatives in this manner. A tone of ‘the other’ permeates your comments.
Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:23 PM
Ain’t gonna happen, astroturfer. McCain will win the election handily. And the Drive-Bys will turn on Obama with a ferocity you have never before seen.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Missing from the list, Bush/Cheney declare martial law on Nov 3rd and burn the Reichstag.
Limerick on October 30, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Not necessary. We all know your intelligence level. : )
carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Referring to us in a tone that makes it clear in your eyes, we are ‘the other.’
Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Wow, the astroturfers are out in full form today.
carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 1:25 PM
LOL. And Cheney goes running around Washington with a shotgun.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:26 PM
Pretty much. I’m looking at about 330 Electoral Votes, 51-53% of the popular vote. I’m not sure that that’s a “landslide”, but it will be a significantly broader margin than the past two elections.
Big S on October 30, 2008 at 1:26 PM
I’m voting (California) and will drag my husband to the polls as well. He spends all day surrounded by liberals at work, so he has been an Eeyore… but he’ll be a voting Eeyore.
As an aside. Interesting phenomenon in CA. I’ve read predictions that a higher black turnout for Obama may be the nail in the coffin for those opposing Prop 8. So even assuming Obama wins CA, there will be one conservative victory out here.
Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 1:26 PM
Did I say I cared? What difference does it make? Is this now suddenly the real world?
jay12 on October 30, 2008 at 1:26 PM
Either that one, or your ‘Palin’ bikini photoshop, is your best one.
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 1:27 PM
LMAO!!!
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:27 PM
+1 on that, and might I add that the places in which we will see the most voter fraud will be heavily Democrat areas anyway.
Sekhmet on October 30, 2008 at 1:28 PM
Axelrod looks like another prominent bad historical figure.
Entelechy on October 30, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Unless you are on LSD, yes. This is an extension of the real world into the blogosphere. If it wasn’t, you wouldn’t be astroturfing here. Nice try.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:30 PM
I’m going to be calling the county recorder on my lunch break to figure out why my name isn’t in the voter database. If things don’t get straightened out, sadly I won’t be able to vote – AZ requires registration 29 days in advance of an election. I filled out my paperwork and sent it in back in the summer, but it seems things haven’t been properly filed, or something.
Hopefully it won’t come to that – the county might be able to straighten things out, and I have someone offering me a ride to the polling place on Tuesday morning so I can make sure to be there before they close (going after work requires using the bus, and raises the likelihood of not getting there on time).
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Thanks!
Hmmm, like give me a hint?
; P
carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Not for those of us on the eastern seaboard, think about it. I’m just saying…
Laura in Maryland on October 30, 2008 at 1:31 PM
I think Obama will win, but the nation will have one of the nastiest cases of buyer’s remorse you’ll ever see. And that will, I hope, stop some of the worst excesses.
Harry and Louise will be coming back, at a minimum.
And we need to ensure that Patrick Fitzgerald remains on the case.
Mr. D on October 30, 2008 at 1:32 PM
The infomercial was awful. You can’t sell anything if your selling depression. It was a negative ad and Obama made a very weak speech at the end.
The Obama worshippers are going to be pissed and it will get very ugly in the next weeks/months. I’m very concerned about the violence that will take place.
roux on October 30, 2008 at 1:33 PM
Rash’s 3rd Law of the Internet: Astroturfing activity increases in obverse proportion to their candidate’s chances of winning the election.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:34 PM
I’m still considering taking a week or two off work.
If Obama wins it might be permenant :P
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:34 PM
Oooh. Eeeenteresting.
What are #1 and 2?
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:35 PM
I clicked on the link, and started laughing when I read this:
You do know that’s not happening, right?
paul006 on October 30, 2008 at 1:35 PM
I haven’t figured them out yet.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Yes, but how will Hillary vote? Also, can we count on Obambi to vote “present”.
Laura in Maryland on October 30, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Yet another genius. Hope this one is still up on Wednesday, but I know it won’t be. You’ll still be in denial, just like the Dems were after 2000. Unfortunately for you, they got wise after 2004. Too bad GOPers will still be fighting ACORN after this one, instead of getting to work on something CONstructive.
jay12 on October 30, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Desperation breeds contempt. Or, the KO’s kiddies aren’t up yet and they have nobody to play with.
BacaDog on October 30, 2008 at 1:36 PM
If the One wins, you might not have a choice!
Laura in Maryland on October 30, 2008 at 1:36 PM
In a sane world he and McCain would be prohibited from voting, or have their votes automatically cast for themselves…
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:37 PM
I created three new accounts, Huey Duck, Louie Duck, Dewey Duck, and voted a total of four times!
Just kidding.
shick on October 30, 2008 at 1:37 PM
How sure are you hat Obama will win Jay? Certain enough to make this a sporting proposition?
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:37 PM
You’re bored, aren’tcha?
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:38 PM
McCain by 5-8%, 285+ EV
johnsteele on October 30, 2008 at 1:38 PM
Interesting names for your park benches.
BacaDog on October 30, 2008 at 1:38 PM
I’d rather have the US Supreme Court decide the election again. This time, instead of the hanging chads, it will be the voter fraud edition. Scalia writing the majority opinion.
Rick on October 30, 2008 at 1:38 PM
It’s a non-admission admission. How very libertardian of you. Does your mama know you’re cutting class to do this?
Laura in Maryland on October 30, 2008 at 1:38 PM
Wavefront just collapsed and a particle is observed at the McCain victory detector
DarkCurrent on October 30, 2008 at 1:39 PM
The riot scenario seems to be a popular pick.
It’s a bit of a long shot, but it’s possible. I just don’t trust the polls.
forest on October 30, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Don’t you mean, ‘unfortunately for us‘, since you’re a conservative who volunteers for GOP phone banks?
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Uhh, yeah. jay12 (who?) vs. Slublog. The Slublog. Mmm hmm. Golly, I wonder who will win?
Or, as grue might say:
*eats*
Gilda on October 30, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Nope, he’s at work, and his Boss Axelrod is looking over his shoulder….
Romeo13 on October 30, 2008 at 1:41 PM
McCain waved a ShamWow and sucked the victory away from Obama!
BacaDog on October 30, 2008 at 1:41 PM
For McCain, of course
Entelechy on October 30, 2008 at 1:42 PM
I know McCain will not win here in CA but am beginning to think he’s going to do better than expected/predicted.
There is surprising support for him in my liberal neighborhood. And I have seen far fewer Osama Obama signs/bumper stickers — and more for McCain — than I remember for the respective Rep and Dem candidates in ’04.
Of course I’m in SoCal. I suspect the North end of the state is staying solidly lefty.
MrScribbler on October 30, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Sure, we’ve got a Ruth’s Chris here in Pittsburgh, and I know you have one in Metro NYC, having worked there a good part of the time. Dinner for 4.
jay12 on October 30, 2008 at 1:42 PM
With her eyes closed. Behind closed doors. For McCain.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Your “Obama Defeats McCain” photoshop was priceless. Nicely done, Gilda.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Thanks for the vote of confidence, but I’m only a dangerous guy when cornered.
I go to pieces so fast people get hit by the shrapnel.*
*h/t: Douglas Adams
Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Deal. I’ll bring my wife. You can bring your therapist.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Wait, what? Haven’t seen! Link please!! :D
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Add to this fact that:
a) Democrats are voting for McCain (and 84% of voters are against spreading the wealth).
b) Allah is in a tizzy this morning looking for bad news (or any news for that matter)
c) I’m fully stacked against a Democrat win, every which way till
SundayTuesday and beyond on Intrade.comd) A lot of Democrats and voters to the left-of-center, love baseball and are pissed for having the World Series delayed for stuff they already knew.
e) It’s a slow news day (did I mention that before, refer to it then).
f) It’s a slow news day and Barack is out of
wordsbreath.g) It’s a slow news day. Period.
Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 1:46 PM
A couple points in weighting error based on inflated Democrat registrations and a point or two of “Bradley Effect”, and McCain could win this in spite of what the polls say.
The thing that worries me most is all the early voting that has already occurred. Somebody mentioned that the early votes were favoring McCain in CO, but I don’t think that’s the case in OH, VA, PA etc. McCain could win the voting on election day, but I think he’ll already be in a big hole in most close states thanks to ACORN and Obama’s “ground game”.
forest on October 30, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Here you go Grue.
*steps*
carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Link please.
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Which county? I’m in easternmost LA county.
Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 1:48 PM
THAT’S AWESOME!!!
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 1:48 PM
The title “Entire F’n Media” makes it. That’s awesome Gilda.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Here you go, Grue-san: Obama Defeats McCain
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Man I hope so, that would be sweet and give us a fighting chance and the opportunity to watch and listen to all the lib-tard heads esploding on Nov 5th!
Liberty or Death on October 30, 2008 at 1:51 PM
ernesto –
If you’re still on this thread. This post from RedState might be of interest to you given the weight you place on the Economist:
Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Sources: Sarkozy views Obama stance on Iran as ‘utterly immature’
French President Nicolas Sarkozy is very critical of U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama’s positions on Iran, according to reports that have reached Israel’s government.
Sarkozy has made his criticisms only in closed forums in France. But according to a senior Israeli government source, the reports reaching Israel indicate that Sarkozy views the Democratic candidate’s stance on Iran as “utterly immature” and comprised of “formulations empty of all content.”
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031943.html
2008. The year The One (Barack Obama) … Lost.
Obamalies or Lies Obama Tells
http://www.nextgenerationcorp.com/NextGenBlog/?p=73
AdrianS on October 30, 2008 at 1:53 PM
EARTHQUAKES: Anyone is welcome to visit the Nation Geological Survey site, but swarms of earthquakes are hitting all over teh west coast, puerto rico, Alaskan Islands, and hawaii. Look for yourself. Do I think its some sort of wrath? No but I find it extremely interesting and that the small swarms mean certain things in predicting larger quakes or magma movement. I’d suspect an eruption is going to occur somewhere. no pun intended.
johnnyU on October 30, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Thanks but all credit goes to carbon_footprint, whose idea it was. I just pasted the pixels together.
Gilda on October 30, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Welcome to Pittsburgh.
jay12 on October 30, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Hundreds to one while published polls show margins under 10% at most. You’re clearly an incredible source.
DarkCurrent on October 30, 2008 at 1:54 PM
True, but look at it this way: Pope Julius II had the idea of depicting the Holy Bible on the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel. Michelangelo Buonarotti did the actual work.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:56 PM
I believe you are right, they went all out and completely lost any semblance of fairness or professionalism, and passed on 100 stories of the caliber of Watergate. If Obama looses they are going to go after him like yo won’t believe it.
neuquenguy on October 30, 2008 at 1:57 PM
You’ll enjoy the Big Apple, Jay. I’ll even spring for a pair of I ♥ NY tee shirts for you and Dr. Phil.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Heaven hath no rage like love to hatred turned
Nor hell a fury like the Drive-By media scorned.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 2:00 PM
The thing is, they already have all the dirt on him. If there’s no reason to support him further, they’ve got several weeks worth of stories they can run – “The Horror We Didn’t Know” and such.
However, I personally think that’s going to backfire on the Drive-Bys – the general response from the populace is going to be along the lines of “Why didn’t you tell us this stuff BEFORE the election??”
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:00 PM
I’m old fashioned. I’m leaning towards the old, experienced guy who knows how to wipe his own nose.
fogw on October 30, 2008 at 2:00 PM
My state (CA) is screwed up. Don’t count on anything rational from us.
Feinstein is pushing the No on 8 agenda 24/7 on the tube now.
Remember we already made it know we want to protect traditional marriage here but the idiot Supreme Court overturned it.
The fix is in on that issue
I will say that in my neighborhood in Central California there are no Obama signs on lawns and only rarely I see an Obama bumper sticker.
Lot’s of homes have YES ON 8 signs on the lawn.
FireBlogger on October 30, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Ah, yes. Life will be good in the FSA (Free States of America) if Obambi wins.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 30, 2008 at 2:00 PM
*twitch*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:02 PM
Don’t bother with the T-shirts unless they’re Rangers. Only thing I miss about that freakin’ city.
jay12 on October 30, 2008 at 2:02 PM
If McCain loses, a lot of people will say he should have picked Ridge for VP. The single issue abortion people would have gotten over it as soon as they realized that neither Obama nor Biden are pro-life in any way and that McCain would be President, not Ridge. We’d win Pennsylvania pretty easy and no whining about the VP’s “inexperience” from the RINOs.
Speedwagon82 on October 30, 2008 at 2:06 PM
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