Hot Air poll: Who’s going to win?
posted at 12:48 pm on October 30, 2008 by Allahpundit
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
In which a blogger strapped for content goes gimmicky. Fear not, we’ll have an official predictions thread on Monday. I’m just curious what people are thinking at the moment — and whether I can predict the final results.
My guesses, in order: 55/14/30/<1. Go for it.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: 1 2 3 ... 6 Next »
Slow day, huh Allah?
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 12:50 PM
MCain wins the presidency, the alternative is just unimaginable.
Tommy_G on October 30, 2008 at 12:51 PM
You.
Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 12:51 PM
McCain wins the bitter vote. Obama wins the graveyard/parkbench vote.
Laura in Maryland on October 30, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Check your mail Allah the DOJ has just weighed in on the Ohio voting case with Jennifer Bruner
William Amos on October 30, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Heisenberg Uncertainty. Your prediction has polluted the final result.
aquaviva on October 30, 2008 at 12:51 PM
I hope it doesn’t end up McCain EV/ Obama Popular. It would be awesome in light of how Obama beat Clinton, but the next 4 years of lefties trying to base all future elections on popular vote totals would be miserable.
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 12:52 PM
I’ll vote on election day. I’m working the polls. If there’s a huge turnout, that means lots of Republicans. If there aren’t, I’m going to be nervous.
rightwingprof on October 30, 2008 at 12:53 PM
Yeah.
We already knew that.
Next question.
Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 12:53 PM
McCain wins and it’s the humping robot in every post on Wednesday.
Agreed, AP?
lorien1973 on October 30, 2008 at 12:53 PM
I really thought that I might still have a shot at it. meh, I guess I need to get out of the house for.
hawkdriver on October 30, 2008 at 12:54 PM
We can hope it does.
forest on October 30, 2008 at 12:54 PM
If you are looking for something to do, how about tracking this down to see if it is real:
Obama at Kos
cozmo on October 30, 2008 at 12:55 PM
McCain wins electoral college and popular vote 50% (165 votes)
Interesting.
carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 12:55 PM
I guess I need to get out of the house “more”
hawkdriver on October 30, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Im not too discouraged. I think the polls are bulking up the obot vote.
I guess sometime you have to learn lessions and this is our time to learn them.
William Amos on October 30, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Well, I looked at the choices and considered them carefully. I voted for McCain EV and PV because it I have confidence about my fellow Americans!
RushBaby on October 30, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Shameless campaign plug:
Sarah Palin will be here in Richmond Saturday evening at Deep Run High School.
Go HERE to register and print tickets.
BacaDog on October 30, 2008 at 12:55 PM
If it’s split between electoral college and popular vote things will get real ugly. Ugly like, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet
rbj on October 30, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Berg going to US Supreme Court at 3:15 PM today on Obama Citizenship.
http://www.americasright.com/
bucko36 on October 30, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Amazingly enough, McCain – I wouldn’t have thought this a few weeks ago, but I think that given the hectoring by the media and the wall to wall Obama commercials in the swing states, anyone who still says that they are undecided ain’t voting for Barry.
I think that McCain has succeeded in one critical respect (with a lot of help from the media and Obama’s campaign spending) – Obama wanted the election to be a referendum on Bush, and the election now seems to be a referendum on Obama. This is not necessarily the ground the Messiah wants to be fighting on.
Realist on October 30, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Well, considering Barry’s sending ManBearPig to Florida, this is going to be blowout for McPalin, now.
Editor on October 30, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Heh, good one Laura!
Liberty or Death on October 30, 2008 at 12:56 PM
SECOND!
RushBaby on October 30, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Last check of AOL president poll:
McCain 62% Obama 36%
Dr. Conservative on October 30, 2008 at 12:57 PM
No, it’s perfectly imaginable. The Republican party leadership in Washington has completely abandoned every single fiscal conservative principle and needs a good, swift kick to the head (if not a figurative decapitation).
To steal a phrase, it’s financial chickens are coming home to roost. A few years of Obamessiah will be worth it if we can clean up our house (and Senate).
ErikTheRed on October 30, 2008 at 12:58 PM
ha ha ha ha ha thanks for the reminder that the koolaid is strong in all of you.
Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Ok, if it’s a slow morning, then why not get a jump on an area of social science research that will begin in earnest after the election results are tallied? To wit, when/why can polls be highly inaccurate? Here’s the answer:
Polling is statistically sound; where it can be corrupted is if a choice has a high (perceived/actual) sanction value. If there is no or limited sanction value, as in the 2006 mid-term elections or various state & local choices, then polling can be highly accurate.
But, introduce the concept of (personal) moral hazard, and results can be widely skewed. For example, how many attendees of the Colosseum waited until the emperor gave his thumb up/down before roaring their approval? Likewise, how would you answer if asked during the period Galileo was imprisoned whether you believed the earth revolved around the sun?
In our current era, there are certain moral imperatives that are expected to be widely embraced, including gay rights & affirmative action. The inherent danger in opposing this “cultural norm” can range from implied rebuke to ostracism to outright violence. That’s why polling results for both Prop 8 out here in Calif (opposition to gay marriage) and Obama are horribly corrupted.
And it’s not just lying – it’s decline-to-answers & hang-ups. If a pollster calls 1,000 people and only 900 were willing to answer, what can we surmise about the 100 (10% – actual estimates are 80%) who declined? If they are split 75/25 for McC, then that’s a net of 5 pts.
Right now, the shorthand for this effect is called the “Bradley (or Wilder) Effect”, but it is really much greater than that – these candidates are merely symptoms of the phenomenon. Mark my words, many doctoral theses are going to be written analyzing/explaining situations where polling results can be invalidated when the environment for personal expression of opinion has an associated high risk factor.
kuhio on October 30, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Just like Mahah-Rushie said it would be from day one. Right 98.8% of the time!
It’s gonna be ugly period… I guess this is substantial support for “varying degrees” of ugly?
Ruh-Roh.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 12:58 PM
I say obama gets pop vote a few 1,000, but McCain wins 303-235
ConservativePartyNow on October 30, 2008 at 12:59 PM
Even if there is only a 1% chance for a McCain victory, that alone is enough to justify every effort to bring it about. Obama’s plans for higher taxes and trade restriction on top of a now established recession (3rd quarter negative growth and October clearly lacking consumer confidence showing that a 2nd quarter of negative growth is in the bag.) will lead to a severe downturn that will be used as an excuse to expand government control of our lives to a degree that would have terrified our founding fathers.
KW64 on October 30, 2008 at 12:59 PM
I pre-voted this morning in my heavily republican district in Colorado. Big turnout. As the doors opened at 7 am there were 60 or so people in line.
The poll volunteers said it’s been very busy for early voting the last two weeks. I hope that means Republicans are coming out in droves.
I would think all here would vote. Anyone not voting. And if so, WHY?
coloradoranchhand on October 30, 2008 at 12:59 PM
… WHO?
No. No, it won’t. The damage he’ll do in those few years may well be irrevokable… especially if he gets to mess with SCOTUS.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:00 PM
On a more probable than not basis, you have to go with Obama (at least today).
But I really don’t want to see that happen. I suspect there are a lot out there that will have a problem voting for a guy like Obama (and no not because he is black, but because he is left of Jimmy Carter).
Mr. Joe on October 30, 2008 at 1:00 PM
Links, man! Links!
MrScribbler on October 30, 2008 at 1:00 PM
ha ha ha ha ha thanks for the reminder that you are a troll and a canadian one at that therefore i laugh at you
carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 1:00 PM
Depends on if the Bradley effect is real, or not.
Romeo13 on October 30, 2008 at 1:00 PM
Only 21% are thinking Obama wins right now. The rest of us have our heads on straight.
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 1:01 PM
I’m thinking the McCain wins electoral and Obama wins popular is more plausible. I think turnout in the big cities like New York and Chicago, which their states are already going Obama, will be very high. This will push his numbers up but won’t help him win the election. Then we’ll start seeing those “we need to move to a popular vote election process” articles from the left.
kerrhome on October 30, 2008 at 1:01 PM
I have confidence…
Hopes for Dopes
Kini on October 30, 2008 at 1:01 PM
It won’t even be close. When McCain wins, the entire country wins. We win a more stable economy, economic growth with surer hands on the wheel.
Even with spending four times what McCain has spent, Obama has no chance, and that isn’t partisan hyperbole-I know that that Americans love this country too much to go Socialist.
The more that has come out about Obama, the more certain I am that he is unelectable, not going to be President. The bar is set much much much much much lowers for Congress. He can be re-elected indefinitely there, but nationally? No chance.
Doug on October 30, 2008 at 1:02 PM
I think the nightmare scenario 269-269 is a real possibility. If McCain wins PA and the rest of the Bush states, but loses OH, VA and NV that gives us a tie.
Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:02 PM
I want to know if they put house numbers on the park benches, so they can be identified. I’m reminded of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, where the turtles called the manhole cover leading to their underground lair “55 1/2 Main Street” or whatever… The pizza delivery guy shows up and is like “55, 57…where’s 55 1/2?” And then up comes Donatello from the manhole… :)
Outlander on October 30, 2008 at 1:03 PM
Pah. Meant the rest of the Bush states except OH, VA and NV.
Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:03 PM
I cannot understand how anybody still thinks that McCain will win. I spent all day yesterday on a phone bank at the local McCain HQ and it was Obama-Obama-Obama. Out of hundreds of phone calls, I reached one sweet old lady who replied McCain, but she sounded a little senile and she said she thought she was too sick to be able to make it on Tuesday. It’s Obama, people, get over it. It’s time to start figuring out how to prevent Democrats from cross-voting McCain back into the race in 2012. That is, if McCain is still even a Republican in 2012, which is not a sure thing. It could happen.
jay12 on October 30, 2008 at 1:03 PM
ManBearPig = Gore, as referenced in a S. Park episode.
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 1:03 PM
Well, I must say a slow news day today is an October surprise to me.
I’ve been looking forward to something happening all week.
***crickets***
Dorvillian on October 30, 2008 at 1:04 PM
A tie would be awesome.
Seixon on October 30, 2008 at 1:04 PM
Oh, you don’t know half of it…
There are still 9 outstanding State lawsuits about Obama’s eligablility as well…
The Mama Obama African Press tape may still be real…. jury is out…
LA Times tape still may emerge….
DOJ just got involved in Ohio…
Its going to be an interesting next few days.
Romeo13 on October 30, 2008 at 1:04 PM
DOJ will not force Brunner to release names of 200,000 mismatched voters
William Amos on October 30, 2008 at 1:04 PM
I see that Dryrot was given some computer time in exchange for good behavior.
Bishop on October 30, 2008 at 1:04 PM
I will take an Electoral College victory by McCain, no matter what else happens. That’s all that really matters! An Obama presidency…too upset at the thought to even finish that line.
mwdiver on October 30, 2008 at 1:05 PM
You’re Canadian, baby? How’d that election work out for them Liberals earlier this month?? Oh, that’s right, they lost. To Steven Harper. Again.
mjk on October 30, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Ah, AstroTurfMan… appear!!!
Romeo13 on October 30, 2008 at 1:05 PM
coloradoranchhand on October 30, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Allah – If you’re strapped for content, how about a thread where we speculate the fates of the Obama camp after he loses next week? Will Biden retire from the Senate? Will Obama ever hold a hearing of the Subcommittee on European Affairs? Who will be prosecuted/indicted/convicted on the various election scandals? Will Pelosi maintain her speakership position? Who will be the next rising star in the Democrat party?
Really, we’ve had all of these posts speculating about Palin’s future, the RNC chairmanship, the direction of the party, the prospects for Jindal, Huck, Romney, Steele, etc… how about one talking about what the future of the Democrats when/if they lose the POTUS election?
Will the PUMAs regain control?
Will we see the emergence of viable third parties?
Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 1:05 PM
We’re all laughing at your superior intellect and insights on the dynamics of the race.
Thanks!
Dorvillian on October 30, 2008 at 1:06 PM
jay12 on October 30, 2008 at 1:03 PM
The Astrodome called, they want their turf back.
Bishop on October 30, 2008 at 1:06 PM
If McCain holds OH, but loses Iowa, NM and NV it’s 269-269 also.
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 1:06 PM
You were working a McCain phone HQ?
The same guy who wrote this?
Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:06 PM
O.o
Algor = Manbearpig… okay I guess I can remember that. But whiskey tango foxtrot dude? :P
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:07 PM
McCain wins Electoral.
Obama wins Popular.
Reason: Obama’s running national ads. McCain’s running local ads in swing states.
This means Obama will get a bigger boost in states like California and McCain will get lower margins in states like Texas.
Hence, Obama will do substantially better in “safe” states than in swing states.
ClintACK on October 30, 2008 at 1:07 PM
I think republicans and many democrats are not confident in Obama. They will come out in huge numbers to prevent his presidency.
PUMAs are huge in numbers and are personally affected by the caucuses and the DNC suppressing their voices.
McCain has the admiration of many democrats and independents as well as republicans.
Lynn Forester De Rothschild was on Greta’s show and explained that for many democrats (PUMAs) they admire McCain’s centrist and bipartisan work. She also does not like Obama and the DNC’s effort to play class warfare.
Conservatives dislike Obama and his socialism, annt-military record, as well as his extreme abortion stance.
jencab on October 30, 2008 at 1:07 PM
We will not know the complete extent of fraud and illegal registration/voting this year until it is too late. I think most people would be floored to learn the election laws changed in the last two years were really the set-up for a Dem sweep. And there ain’t no way to change it back!
That will happen somewhere around the time the LA Times releases the video that would have cost BHO the election.
My sense is that BHO has been calm and relaxed since the outcome of Ohio is not in doubt.
This could account for the mild panic in the Dems when McCain went into PA.
CinC on October 30, 2008 at 1:07 PM
jay12 on October 30, 2008 at 1:03 PM
*
*
ah, you got obama’s acorn list.
marklmail on October 30, 2008 at 1:07 PM
Well I think it’s clear McCain will crush him next week given these results.
Typhonsentra on October 30, 2008 at 1:07 PM
In either case, me and my neighbors (ME 2)will decide the election.
And McCain is visiting here tomorrow.
Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:08 PM
-snort-
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:08 PM
Zing! Boing! Zap! Pow!
Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 1:08 PM
Ooo sick burn!
lorien1973 on October 30, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Ha Busted!
carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 1:09 PM
DOH…. is this now the Department of SOCIAL Justice?
Romeo13 on October 30, 2008 at 1:10 PM
Nice catch. Astroturfers beware, teh internets save everything.
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 1:10 PM
Grue…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfGmf8L3-z0
Editor on October 30, 2008 at 1:10 PM
YouTube blocked at work, sorry. What is it?
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:11 PM
Well done!
D2Boston on October 30, 2008 at 1:11 PM
Slublog: how in the world did you do that so quickly?
carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 1:11 PM
Damn, Slu. You’re good.
BacaDog on October 30, 2008 at 1:12 PM
Not the American People, that’s the only thing I can say for sure.
LevStrauss on October 30, 2008 at 1:12 PM
Damn, jay12!
I was all ready to work for McCain this weekend, but you’ve convinced me not to! The election is lost! Lost, I tell you!
P.S. Tell David Axelrod I said hello.
Realist on October 30, 2008 at 1:12 PM
Heh, allow me to help carbon by invoking a scene from Monty Python’s Holy Grail movie…Dave, I wave my private parts at you…I fart in your general direction you tiny wiper of Obama’s bottom…now go away or I shall taunt you some more!
Liberty or Death on October 30, 2008 at 1:13 PM
I would also note that Maryland has since changed her law to, as I understand it, give her electoral votes to whomever wins the national popular vote.
eforhan on October 30, 2008 at 1:14 PM
Jennifer Brunner says its impossibler to check every new voter ballot in ohio so she wont try to
William Amos on October 30, 2008 at 1:14 PM
ManBearig = Al Gore.
Enoxo on October 30, 2008 at 1:14 PM
I read Iowahawks’ little ditty on polls earlier.
Coronagold on October 30, 2008 at 1:14 PM
He’s been tracking him like Palin tracks moose.
Editor on October 30, 2008 at 1:14 PM
The nonsense in OH does concern me a little bit. My state of WI has all sorts of voter verification problems also, but McCain doesn’t need WI to win. Hopefully there are enough Americans who know about the real, Democratic primary Obama and will vote McCain next week.
BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 1:14 PM
In Google type:
“user_name on” hot air
You’ll see a hotair post and below it (indented) another one (assuming multiple posts). Click on “More results from hotair” link below that second post and you get them all.
Y-not on October 30, 2008 at 1:14 PM
One thing you didn’t mention is how many hang ups you got. I think straight Republicans are unwilling to talk to pollsters because the feel polls are unfair to the GOP. Even if you were with McCain I wouldn’t be on the phone long enough with a pollster to find out.
coloradoranchhand on October 30, 2008 at 1:14 PM
Breaking: Fox News Poll has McCain gaining.
Last week: Obama 49, McCain 40
Today: Obama 47, McCain 44
carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 1:15 PM
Google-fu.
Slublog on October 30, 2008 at 1:15 PM
a couple things I’ve finally learned here and at MM…… the comments of foreigners here and there means nothing in the grand scheme of things…. they have no base to even understand what a republican form of government is and why sucking off the teat of government is wrong…. so I am instituting a self imposed “non response mode” to said people.
MNDavenotPC on October 30, 2008 at 1:15 PM
Anybody miss Rush’s Prebuttal? Here it is in all its glory:
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_102908/content/01125112.guest.html
RushBaby on October 30, 2008 at 1:15 PM
Having concluded his Drive-By troll dump, Douchebag Dave beats a hasty retreat to his Unibomber shack to indulge in his other favorite hobby: internet porn.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:16 PM
I smell the legacy-hungry hand of Bush behind this. Don’t want to upset those good Democrats, do we?
I’m completely convinced that Bush orchestrated the persecution of Ramos and Compean, sure he has impeded efforts to investigate ACORN. This fits perfectly with his phony “above the fray” attitude.
There is clear potential for massive fraud in the Ohio mess; an investigation does not necessarily mean action, but it would show the DOJ, chock-full of Osama Obama-ites, at least pays lip service to the law.
Damn. Let’s just throw open the gates and let the barbarians take over, shall we?
MrScribbler on October 30, 2008 at 1:16 PM
Everyone here is a racist.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 30, 2008 at 1:16 PM
Teach us, sensei.
*bows*
Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 1:16 PM
Obama wins huge on the map, slightly closer in the popular.
V15J on October 30, 2008 at 1:16 PM
I think there can be also be a tie if McCain loses PA,IA,NM takes VA and NH and holds all of the other close red states. I think it’s a fairly realistic scenario assuming VA and NH aren’t as far gone as they appear in the polls (which I suspect).
Then Nancy Pelosi gets to pick the President, right?
forest on October 30, 2008 at 1:17 PM
According to Rush, early voting in both Fl and CA has the Republicans voting in greater numbers than the Democrats by several percentage points.
ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 1:17 PM
Comment pages: 1 2 3 ... 6 Next »