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Fox News poll: McCain nets five points since last week, now within three; Update: Sample bias?

posted at 2:40 pm on October 30, 2008 by Allahpundit
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A little good news to balance the two-point bumps The One got today in Rasmussen and Gallup. The five-point gain overall coincides with a five-point gain among Republicans, only 83 percent of whom were committed to Maverick last week. Is the Joe the Plumber rhetoric working? Maybe, maybe not:

The economy continues to far outdistance all other issues as the top priority for voters this year, and while Obama maintains an advantage on the economy, McCain has chipped away at those numbers. By an 8-point margin Obama is seen as the candidate who voters trust to handle the economy, down from a 15-point edge

More voters trust Obama to handle the issue of taxes (+6 points) even though nearly three times as many think their taxes will go up under an Obama administration (20 percent) as think the same about a McCain administration (7 percent).

Amazingly, Rasmussen now has McCain ahead on both issues — and yet still trailing outside the margin of error. I don’t know how to reconcile those two data points given the emphasis on the economy, unless it means most people have made up their minds and are sticking with their guy even if their preference for him on particular subjects momentarily falters.

Unambiguous good news: After weeks of trailing, two new polls suddenly show Norm Coleman ahead of Franken, thanks mainly to indie candidate Dean Barkley peeling liberals away from the joke candidate. (According to NBC, Franken’s net favorables are negative.) If you have some coin to spare and haven’t given it to Bill Russell, here’s Coleman’s donation page.

Update: Dave Weigel of Reason e-mails with a possible explanation for the McCain gain: Last week’s poll used a sample of 43% Democrats and 37% Republicans; this week’s is 41% Dem and 39% GOP. It’s possible, I guess, that the new sample more accurately reflects the composition of the electorate, but I’m skeptical.


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Well Murtha is scared he is begging for $1 million

And he got the DOD to bring in some jobs with a government contract.

I think Franken is toast its Murtha that needs to be gunned for.

William Amos on October 30, 2008 at 2:42 PM

Hopenchanje?

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:42 PM

I am always suspect of any polls but good news is good news.

carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 2:42 PM

One of the reasons is that the economic problem isn’t really any better, but the shock has worn off.
People now have to get back to work, and worry about keeping what they have…and Obama don’t want you to keep what you have.
Please McCain be more distinct on “not cutting taxes to the 30% who aren’t paying, but giving them a check for not paying taxes”.

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 2:43 PM

Nothing to see here…

Just keep calling, collaborating with PUMAs…I’m using some of their excellent flyers to take around my neighborhood. There are NO campaign signs up…just my lonely McCain sign and one Obama, I think. So, there are some folks who are either not informed or who have gotten a lot of crap from the media.

Hey, have you noticed that they are still in relentless pursuit to destroy any Palin credibility? I think they are soooooooooo scared…

Mommypundit on October 30, 2008 at 2:43 PM

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 2:42 PM

No HOPIUM for you!

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 30, 2008 at 2:43 PM

Barry’s trying to run out the clock….his infomercial flopped he cannot close the deal if it were up to Barry the election would have been last tuesday.

sven10077 on October 30, 2008 at 2:44 PM

Obama, Franken and Murtha losing will make Tuesday night good, no matter how many other seats the libs gain.

BadgerHawk on October 30, 2008 at 2:45 PM

Hope?
Nope.
Still 4 to 1 against.
Sorry.

Bruno Strozek on October 30, 2008 at 2:45 PM

As I said on another thread, don’t let Rasmussen, Gallup, and Zogby get you down. There’s no way they will show McCain in the lead–regardless of circumstances. They’ve been bought and paid for by Obama. But they will keep the margins within about 5 points or so because they are concerned about their credibility. If they keep showing Obama in the lead, but only by a few points, if/when McCain wins, then they can tell the Obama people, “hey, we did what you told us to do”, and they can tell everyone else that while they misjudged who won because of all the weird stuff this election, they got it close. As long as McCain keeps it within about 5 we’re in this.

Matt Helm on October 30, 2008 at 2:46 PM

More voters trust Obama to handle the issue of taxes (+6 points) even though nearly three times as many think their taxes will go up under an Obama administration (20 percent) as think the same about a McCain administration (7 percent)

.

I can’t figure this one out, either.

NoFanofLibs on October 30, 2008 at 2:46 PM

DEMS: OH SH!T!? BUT I’M WHITE….I’M ENTITLED!!!

chb03c on October 30, 2008 at 2:46 PM

I can’t figure this one out, either.

NoFanofLibs on October 30, 2008 at 2:46 PM

Kool Aid. They are so enthralled with the idea of a black president that they don’t care what logic tells them.

johnsteele on October 30, 2008 at 2:48 PM

Has the pessimism meter lifted off of the floor and started hovering around 2 now?

Physics Geek on October 30, 2008 at 2:49 PM

I always believed that the democrats ran as faux republicans in battleground states in 2006.Deception now clear thanks to Pelosi and Reid.
Barry has shown no inclination to run ala Clinton in 1992- you know it kills him to even talk about any tax cuts and people are picking up on his dishonest shifting income target (250-200-150 from Slo Joe).
The markets may have bottomed out just in time to calm the panicky and McCain is the “safe” choice for most people.
Is there time?
Just enough.

jjshaka on October 30, 2008 at 2:49 PM

Up three really means he’s ahead, with their weighting

Vashta.Nerada on October 30, 2008 at 2:50 PM

And by all indications, it looks like Obama’s 1/2 hour buy was a bust.
All of this adds up to the perfect storm…if everything comes together, what a day the 4th will be…

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 2:51 PM

go-Go-GO “He who I’m going to hold my nose to vote for!”

Skywise on October 30, 2008 at 2:51 PM

With the way these polls are weighted, will it ever be possible for McCain to actually take the lead in one even if he is poised to win the election?

Mark1971 on October 30, 2008 at 2:52 PM

I was curious about some things I’ve seen reported about the pollsters’ refusal rates being as high as 80%. My gut told me there was no way the refusal rate could be that high; the poll would be nearly worthless.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/09/huffpollstrology-candidat_n_133075.html

(Ignore the goofy astrology stuff at the top and scroll down past the break.)

They asked the pollsters to report their refusal rates.

I’m thinking most folks who refuse to answer these polls are NOT Obama voters. They’re not necessarily McCain votes (they could be non-voters, of course), but it does mean that there is a self-selection bias that is bound to favor Obama. I tend to think Obama voters are going to enthusiastically participate.

If the pollsters are not correcting for this self-selection bias (by what methodology, who knows?), we could all be in for a shocker come Nov. 4th.

I wish that someone would go back to these pollsters and ask the question again: What is the refusal rate and what methods do you use to correct against it?

Megan Kelly or Greta would be a good choice.

benjamin on October 30, 2008 at 2:52 PM

I heard up to 120-150 million people could/will vote. And here’s another 900 person poll. It’s ridiculous to read “the public says” and “people say” and “more voters” this and “less voters” that.

Marcus on October 30, 2008 at 2:52 PM

L. KING: Concerning spreading the wealth, isn’t the graduated income tax spreading the wealth?

MCCAIN: The graduated income tax…

L. KING: If you and I paid more so that Jimmy can get some for him or pay for a welfare recipient, that’s spreading the wealth.

MCCAIN: Well, that’s spreading the wealth in the respect that we do have a graduated income tax. That’s a far cry from taking from one group of Americans and giving to another. I mean, that’s dramatically different.
———-

Yeah it’s TOTALLY DIFFERENT.

Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 2:52 PM

Closing the gap? Or polls coming back in line? I don’t know.

Still, dogfight next Tuesday.

Spirit of 1776 on October 30, 2008 at 2:52 PM

I don’t remember who mentioned this in the Rasmussen thread but it seems the weighting for Democrats went up to 40% in the latest poll. What does that mean? McCain was doing better so they had to poll more Democrats?

I don’t know. But if McCain is improving on the economic issue, and soldiers are not getting killed in Iraq and the generic numbers for Democrats are down and Obama is getting to be old news…maybe the tide is turning.

I guess we will find out.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 2:52 PM

I can’t figure this one out, either.

NoFanofLibs on October 30, 2008 at 2:46 PM

The message that “95% of people will get a tax cut” is the most repeated line during the campaign. It’s the big lie that has become a “truth”

lorien1973 on October 30, 2008 at 2:53 PM

More voters trust Obama to handle the issue of taxes (+6 points) even though nearly three times as many think their taxes will go up under an Obama administration (20 percent) as think the same about a McCain administration (7 percent

Could it be that somebody is lying? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, all you racists!

bloggless on October 30, 2008 at 2:53 PM

McCain just said he wasn’t gonna let Exxon rake in record profits. McCain’s 1.2 billion dollar tax cut for Exxon will go a long way to making sure of that.

GOOD WORK.

Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 2:54 PM

Rywall:

Go away, you do not even know what you are talking about.

BTW, my brother runs a small contracting firm and has said that if Obama wins he will be laying someone off. Too bad it is not you.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 2:54 PM

It keeps going back and forth from 95% of families to 95% of the people. And that is from Dear Leader’s own campaign.

bloggless on October 30, 2008 at 2:55 PM

The polls are wrong because the models are flawed. Cell phones and mistrust of the media have changed the landscape of gathering reliable information. (52% of people do not trust the MSM – according to some poll)

Some guy on Hannity said that ALL the polls had McCain down, so he had to be down. If insanity is doing the same thing while expecting different results then we have a classic example right here.

If they continue to poll large cities and weight the respondents with an eye towards high Democrat turn out, it really won’t matter how many polls you take, you will always get the similar results.

Despite ALL the cards being stacked against him – McCain will emerge the victor.

Dorvillian on October 30, 2008 at 2:55 PM

Meant to say, if McCain is within three, he’s probably ahead, with the weighting they use.

Vashta.Nerada on October 30, 2008 at 2:56 PM

Dave:

McCain voted against that bill, Obama voted for it. You need to do better with the talking points, someone is overpaying you.

And a lot of those oil dollars go to your country moron.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 2:56 PM

Rywall:
Go away.

carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 2:56 PM

With the way these polls are weighted, will it ever be possible for McCain to actually take the lead in one even if he is poised to win the election?

Mark1971 on October 30, 2008 at 2:52 PM

If you haven’t already done so, check out my 2:46 PM post. I don’t think there’s any way that the “Big 3: Rasmussen, Zogby, or Gallup” will show McCain ahead. They’ve been bought and paid for by Obama and they’re ideologically similar–they’re on his side. But they will keep the margin close as they want to maintain at least a facade of credibility. IBD and a few of the others probably would be your best bet to show a McCain lead.

Matt Helm on October 30, 2008 at 2:56 PM

I smell desperation – is Drywall in here?

Vashta.Nerada on October 30, 2008 at 2:57 PM

Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 2:54 PM

How many hours are you going to stay at home in the fetal position under your bed if the one loses to McCain?

Or should I ask days.

wise_man on October 30, 2008 at 2:57 PM

IBD and a few of the others probably would be your best bet to show a McCain lead.

Matt Helm on October 30, 2008 at 2:56 PM

And IBD was the closest poll to the 2004 results than any other poll.

carbon_footprint on October 30, 2008 at 2:57 PM

McCain just said he wasn’t gonna let Exxon rake in record profits. McCain’s 1.2 billion dollar tax cut for Exxon will go a long way to making sure of that.

GOOD WORK.

Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 2:54 PM

Oh, Hi Davey, I knew you would be back after getting that spanking yesterday on telling that little fib about McCain being the chairman of the Woods foundation.
And that little lie about him giving money to that terrorist…
Back with a few talking points from Moveon or one of your other sites?
You are wasting your time, we all get you, we get it, you are a liberal…and a stupid liberal (or is that redundant).

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 2:58 PM

Obama wants everyone else to support his family for him. The man spends $40,000 to send his two daughters to a private school, but his aunt and uncle live in poverty. Hypocrite.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 2:58 PM

And by all indications, it looks like Obama’s 1/2 hour buy was a bust.
All of this adds up to the perfect storm…if everything comes together, what a day the 4th will be…

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 2:51 PM

Couldn’t agree more.
I’m looking forward to election day, and
victory for McCain/Palin, Russell, and Coleman.

Mulligan on October 30, 2008 at 2:58 PM

They poll more democrats than republicans, yet McCain is within 3, 4, or 5?!

PUMAs on the prowl…

jencab on October 30, 2008 at 2:58 PM

And by all indications, it looks like Obama’s 1/2 hour buy was a bust.
All of this adds up to the perfect storm…if everything comes together, what a day the 4th will be…

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 2:51 PM

I’ve seen exactly one article praising it, it’s almost as if it never happened.

Down the memory hole.

Dorvillian on October 30, 2008 at 2:58 PM

I don’t know how to reconcile those two data points given the emphasis on the economy

In history when the internals is telling a different story than the final result that means someone is lying. There is going to be surprise come nov 4th I think. Not 1005 sure yet but there is a lot of things going on. The polls are tightening now that the election is coming. Hillbuzz etc say that they are hearing a lot of reports from the battle grounds.

the polls are showing massive democratic % vs REP %. If PA is in play which I think it is than the entire battleground states switch. notice we haven’t gotten any polls from MI, MN, WI lately?

unseen on October 30, 2008 at 2:59 PM

I am beginning to hate the word HOPE! B.H.O. has made it a dirty word.

How about the word… Enthusiasm! Goal! Optimism! Desire! Or Reverie!

My Favorite if it plays out: VICTORY!

upinak on October 30, 2008 at 2:59 PM

wise_man on October 30, 2008 at 2:57 PM

After the election, and after a couple of days, he and shipley and others will never post here again.
They are here for one reason, just to stir the pot. They aren’t even who they say they are, they are just trolls that hop on a conservative website and get abused.

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 3:00 PM

BTW, my brother runs a small contracting firm and has said that if Obama wins he will be laying someone off. Too bad it is not you.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 2:54 PM

I know a few people who run small businesses and they’re saying the same thing–that Obama’s tax increases will force them to layoff people–or even go out of business entirely. My brother works as a welder for a company and his bosses had to consolidate. He’s ok for now, job-wise, but he’s looking at a second job as a fall-back just in case.

Matt Helm on October 30, 2008 at 3:00 PM

Matt:

I just think they have convinced themselves that Obama will win, so everytime McCain starts to get within the margin of error they change their weighting. They think that is what they need to do be accurate. But are they? I don’t think so. I think there is no way of knowing for sure.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 3:01 PM

Eeyore Scale of Doom: 5.1.

Akzed on October 30, 2008 at 3:01 PM

Up three really means he’s ahead, with their weighting

DU was knocking the poll for only having a 2% difference between R and D. I haven’t checked, but I think they were saying it 43-41 split.

rw on October 30, 2008 at 3:01 PM

Yeah it’s TOTALLY DIFFERENT. – Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 2:52 PM

Link?

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 3:01 PM

Matt:

He said the tax increases plus the additional money for health insurance etc. He can cut back and take less work and still net about the same for himself. He just won’t be putting as much back into his business.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 3:02 PM

Dorvillian on October 30, 2008 at 2:58 PM

The exception is Chris Matthewbating over the infomercial…I am disappointed, I tuned in the last minute to get my Ginzu knives, and missed the special offer.

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 3:02 PM

Oh, Hi Davey, I knew you would be back after getting that spanking yesterday on telling that little fib about McCain being the chairman of the Woods foundation.
And that little lie about him giving money to that terrorist…
Back with a few talking points from Moveon or one of your other sites?
You are wasting your time, we all get you, we get it, you are a liberal…and a stupid liberal (or is that redundant).

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 2:58 PM
——-
I corrected myself about 15 minutes later, dipsh*t.

Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 3:02 PM

GOOD WORK. – Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 2:54 PM

Link?

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 3:03 PM

Interesting that over time, as polling has gotten more “sophisticated,” it’s also gotten more suspect.

Daily tracking, weighting, cellphones, robocalls, computer analysis – makes me wonder if the forest has somehow gotten lost for all the trees.

Gilda on October 30, 2008 at 3:03 PM

My Favorite if it plays out: VICTORY!

upinak on October 30, 2008 at 2:59 PM

I like SCHADENFREUDE.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 30, 2008 at 3:03 PM

BTW, my brother runs a small contracting firm and has said that if Obama wins he will be laying someone off. Too bad it is not you.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 2:54 PM

Is he checking for Obama stickers on their cars in the parking lot ??
I sure would axe them first !

pambi on October 30, 2008 at 3:04 PM

If McCain wins, it will be the funniest and best thing to watch on TV for a long time. Just to see these commie and crooked bastards look so stupid on tv…like msnbc. I would enjoy it immensly even though I expect nothing but bad things from mccain…they wouldnt be as bad as obama.

I give it a 10% chance at best that mccain wins.

Roger Waters on October 30, 2008 at 3:04 PM

rw:

43-41 is closer to accurate than 40-31, which is what a lot of them have. I thought their weighting was closer to 38-35. But it seems they change over time. I don’t know…

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 3:04 PM

In another hour, I am on my way to the polls…a little early voting. On the 4th I will be celebrating and I don’t want to vote in that kind of condition.

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 3:05 PM

pambi:

He is in Oklahoma. Not a lot of Obama supporters there.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 3:05 PM

fter the election, and after a couple of days, he and shipley and others will never post here again.
They are here for one reason, just to stir the pot. They aren’t even who they say they are, they are just trolls that hop on a conservative website and get abused.

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 3:00 PM

These guys are idiots–they don’t seem to get it–we’re on to their game! But if they want to come in and make fools out of themselves, fine–we’ll just send them back to Bambi with their tails between their legs as always.

Matt Helm on October 30, 2008 at 3:06 PM

Gilda:

I have wondered if just doing a thousand random calls would not be as accurate.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 3:06 PM

In the words of Ronaldus Magnus:

“We win. They lose.”

Period.

Nat Hound on October 30, 2008 at 3:08 PM

Two guys I work with were telling me the other day how

they thought Obama wouldn’t be such a bad choice since they

thought he’d be better for the economy..

Guy #1 is an Assault Weapon owner: I pointed out to him the

Democratic stance on Assualt Weapons. And gave him the

proper websites to check out including NRA.ORG and AR15.COM

Guy #2, concerned about his work investments. I explained

to him about the 401K punishment he would take under

Obama.

I know one early voted McCain. Pretty sure the other one

will too.

Fires1 on October 30, 2008 at 3:08 PM

I corrected myself about 15 minutes later, dipsh*t.

Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 3:02 PM

Well, you would have just let that “slide” if I would not have caught you doing what you do best…still didn’t retract that he gave bucks to Kalidi, which is untrue.
So I guess you think you are honorable if you only correct some of your lies.
Figure about 4 or 5 more days of you posting on here, then you can crawl back under your rock, you moron.

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 3:09 PM

We’re McGainin’ on them. Rywall, need a diaper change?

silenced majority on October 30, 2008 at 3:09 PM

Give your money to Russell. Coleman voted for the bailout and while he is preferable to Franken, he’s not worth your money.

lodge on October 30, 2008 at 3:09 PM

I give it a 10% chance at best that mccain wins. – Roger Waters on October 30, 2008 at 3:04 PM

Hmmm. A one in ten chance is 9:1 odds. Will you cover a $100 bet?

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 3:10 PM

I just think they have convinced themselves that Obama will win, so everytime McCain starts to get within the margin of error they change their weighting. They think that is what they need to do be accurate. But are they? I don’t think so. I think there is no way of knowing for sure.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 3:01 PM

Oh, psychology most definitely does enter into it. The pollsters want Obama to win and that is affecting their weighting and sampling etc. Also, the operators taking the polls figure into this–they discriminate by choosing who to poll. But I’m also pretty sure that some money has passed under the table as well. It’s probably a bit of all of the above.

Matt Helm on October 30, 2008 at 3:10 PM

Shhhh… should someone tell drywall that Exxon ALSO paid $32,510,000,000 (with a B, folks) in TAXES, that Dry won’t have to dish out, to continue all of the gov’t entitlements??
shhhhhh

pambi on October 30, 2008 at 3:10 PM

How many hours are you going to stay at home in the fetal position under your bed if the one loses to McCain?

Considering how much time he spends wedged under his kitchen sink, that might be hard to compute.

Bishop on October 30, 2008 at 3:11 PM

Fires1 on October 30, 2008 at 3:08 PM

That’s a great way to handle it, and good for them to keep an open mind.

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 3:11 PM

Fires1 on October 30, 2008 at 3:08 PM

And that’s how it’s done. I’ve done the same thing with a few people I know and have run into. It’s just that we conservatives don’t intimidate people into voting for our candidates–we believe in persuasion through logical reasoning.

Matt Helm on October 30, 2008 at 3:12 PM

I give it a 10% chance at best that mccain wins. – Roger Waters on October 30, 2008 at 3:04 PM

You blow your welfare check on scratch-offs, don’t you? “I’m gonna win this time” and all that?

Bishop on October 30, 2008 at 3:12 PM

True story:

My sister is a small-town journalist in downstate Illinois, an overwhelmingly Democrat area that usually leans right on presidential candidates.

Her editor gave her an assignment to go up to the public square and interview & photograph 10 people for a “man on the street” feature. The question? Who they were voting for in the presidential election.

The first eight people she asked refused to give an answer. The ninth said he would tell her who he was voting for but wouldn’t allow his picture to appear in the paper.

It took my sister three hours to get ten people to admit who they favored, meanwhile being turned down by like 50 people.

The result? Evenly split, 5 McCain, 5 The One.

I don’t know what this means, but I thought it was kind of interesting.

CornFedBeauty on October 30, 2008 at 3:13 PM

Fires1 on October 30, 2008 at 3:08 PM

A sad state of affairs for our Republic when Democrats rely on voter ignorance to get elected.

ManlyRash on October 30, 2008 at 3:13 PM

Yeah it’s TOTALLY DIFFERENT.

Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 2:52 PM

Dave, if you can’t grasp the difference between our current system, and one where the government just sends out checks to people who pay no taxes under the guise of a “tax cut”, then there is absolutely no hope for you.

As my grandma said: “You can’t argue with ignorance.”

BacaDog on October 30, 2008 at 3:13 PM

McCain just said he wasn’t gonna let Exxon rake in record profits. McCain’s 1.2 billion dollar tax cut for Exxon will go a long way to making sure of that.

GOOD WORK.

Dave Rywall on October 30, 2008 at 2:54 PM

What “tax cut for Exxon”? Is that the across-the-board income-tax-rate reduction from 35% to 25% for all Subchapter C corporations? The income-tax-rate reduction that will bring the U.S. more in line with the income tax rates imposed on corporations by other countries? The income-tax-rate reduction that will stimulate economic activity in the U.S. rather than waiting around for some half-a** Congressional stimulus package?

You mean that tax cut?

BuckeyeSam on October 30, 2008 at 3:14 PM

I would enjoy it immensly even though I expect nothing but bad things from mccain…they wouldnt be as bad as obama.

I give it a 10% chance at best that mccain wins.

Roger Waters on October 30, 2008 at 3:04 PM

Typical, A little “I would enjoy it…”, then a “nothing but bad things from mccain…”
Then the zinger “I gie it a 10%…”
Roggie, Roggie, such a pathetic person (man, women, who knows on the internet)…so weak, so transparent…wadda we gonna doo.

right2bright on October 30, 2008 at 3:14 PM

pambi on October 30, 2008 at 3:10 PM

Pambi, Drywall is a Canadian, who is still smarting from the liberals loss last week in their provincial elections.

Vashta.Nerada on October 30, 2008 at 3:14 PM

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 3:01 PM

Some polling organizations have received death threats for showing positive results for McCain.

The polling orgs may an to show no better than a tie for McCain to save their butts from Obama thugs.

Right_of_Attila on October 30, 2008 at 3:15 PM

CornFedBeauty on October 30, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Ooooooooo… “Bradley affect?”
I can handle that.. hahaha.

pambi on October 30, 2008 at 3:15 PM

Yeah national polls are great but if McCain can’t win the battleground states he’s toast. He’s in danger of losing his own state, for god’s sake. That’s not good. I hope and pray they pull it off, but I’m not sanguine.

CornFedBeauty on October 30, 2008 at 3:16 PM

How many of us would have ever thought, that in our lifetime, we would walk over broken glass to vote for McCain?

I think he’s gonna get enough of us bloody-footed Americans on Tuesday!

joepub on October 30, 2008 at 3:16 PM

I have wondered if just doing a thousand random calls would not be as accurate.

Terrye on October 30, 2008 at 3:06 PM

I’d like to see the results of an experiment like this. I assume the large polling organizations have tested similar ideas, and pursue the models they use for good reasons.

We always hear about campaigns’ internal polling, which is why Candidate X is doing a rally in reportedly-safe State Y, with the implication that they know something Gallup, Rasmussen etc. don’t.

What’s the difference? Anybody know?

Gilda on October 30, 2008 at 3:17 PM

benjamin on October 30, 2008 at 2:52 PM

My sister in law was called by a pollster and she refused. I wish someone would call me!

Oink on October 30, 2008 at 3:17 PM

Rasmussen now has McCain ahead on both issues — and yet still trailing outside the margin of error. I don’t know how to reconcile those two data points

Rasmussen weights his polls according to this formula: 39.3% Democrat 33.0%. IIRC, the final numbers from exit polling for 2006, possibly the worst year for Republicans ever, was three points plus for Dems. That would explain a lot.

Buford Gooch on October 30, 2008 at 3:17 PM

Hope?
Nope.
Still 4 to 1 against.
Sorry.

Bruno Strozek on October 30, 2008 at 2:45 PM

LOL all the astroturfers have left is intrade, that place where Soros can dump all the cash he wants buying up “Obama wins!” positions. Eurotrash billionaires of all stripes actually. Apparently right after the two bad polls came out on Franken, a huge flood of “Franken wins!” buy orders came in over there.

LOL I guess those who are so inclined can go over to intrade and buy Coleman and McCain and thus take some of Soros’s money on Nov. 5.

funky chicken on October 30, 2008 at 3:18 PM

may an = may plan

Right_of_Attila on October 30, 2008 at 3:18 PM

You mean that tax cut?

BuckeyeSam on October 30, 2008 at 3:14 PM

Yes. The one that also applies to Google with a 40% gross margin, Starbucks with a 29% margin, an on and on.

I think we should place a windfall profits tax on Starbucks. I’m tired of paying $2 for my morning coffee.

What?????? You mean they’ll just pass along the tax and I’ll pay $2.50?

BTW Dave, Exxon’s operating margin for the “record setting” quarter was 10.1%.

BacaDog on October 30, 2008 at 3:18 PM

I think he’s gonna get enough of us bloody-footed Americans on Tuesday!

joepub on October 30, 2008 at 3:16 PM

One can also think of it as crawling across broken glass to vote against socialist Barry, or FOR Palin – whatever floats your boat, and gets you into the booth.

Vashta.Nerada on October 30, 2008 at 3:18 PM

Rasmussen now has McCain ahead on both issues — and yet still trailing outside the margin of error. I don’t know how to reconcile those two data points
Rasmussen weights his polls according to this formula: 39.3% Democrat 33.0%. IIRC, the final numbers from exit polling for 2006, possibly the worst year for Republicans ever, was three points plus for Dems. That would explain a lot.
Buford Gooch on October 30, 2008 at 3:17 PM

It just can’t be repeated enough times….

funky chicken on October 30, 2008 at 3:19 PM

Rasmussen: 40% Democratic, 33% Republican, 27% unaffiliated

Fox: 41% Democratic, 39% Republican, 16% Independent

aunursa on October 30, 2008 at 3:19 PM

My sister in law was called by a pollster and she refused. I wish someone would call me!

Oink on October 30, 2008 at 3:17 PM

I got a call last week from an Obama group. I told them I’d vote for him if I got my $600 check before election day.

BacaDog on October 30, 2008 at 3:20 PM

Just from Drywall

Exxon Mobil Financials (all in millions)

Revenue $137,737
Costs 111,580

Income bef Taxes 26,157

Income Tax 11,327

Net Income 14,830

So they paid 43% of income in taxes, Drywall. How much do you want them to pay?

NoFanofLibs on October 30, 2008 at 3:20 PM

That’s just FOR Drywall

NoFanofLibs on October 30, 2008 at 3:21 PM

Yeah national polls are great but if McCain can’t win the battleground states he’s toast. He’s in danger of losing his own state, for god’s sake. That’s not good. I hope and pray they pull it off, but I’m not sanguine.

CornFedBeauty on October 30, 2008 at 3:16 PM

You don’t really believe that crap. Really….give me a break

I just donated to a group of democrats who have spent the last couple of weekends campaigning for McCain/Palin in southern and western Pennsylvania.

http://realdemocratsusa.blogspot.com/

The guys from Hillbuzz are raising money for their effort to campaign in Ohio (they all live in Chicago)

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com

if you’re gonna believe the crap polls, please send some bucks to those who are still out there working for victory!

funky chicken on October 30, 2008 at 3:23 PM

A’propos of nothing….

I was just topping up my addiction, and on eBay’s main page they’re hawking and “election special” from the demented folks who market those hideous Cabbage Patch Kid dolls.

Seems that they’ve made dolls of each of the four prez/vice candidates…and guess which dollie has been bid up to twice the price of the others (hint: they even sorta got the glasses right)…and guess which of the nightmare-inducing voodoo objects has been bid up the least….

…now, I don’t know if the links’ll fire…you know how it is with those 50-75+ character URLs can be…but I thought it funny…these are all one-of-a-kind dolls (the page tells me) and proceeds ($1025.00 so far for the most popular) will all go to the Marine Corps Reserves “Toys-For-Tots” campaign…an eminently worthy charity….

…just thought some might find it amusing….

Puritan1648 on October 30, 2008 at 3:23 PM

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