Rasmussen: Race within margin of error

posted at 11:40 am on October 29, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

Rasmussen’s tracking poll shows a significant narrowing of the race with just six days to go before Election Day.  John McCain has closed to within three points of Barack Obama nationwide, within the tracking poll’s margin of error.  This comes as Gallup also shows it a margin-of-error race as of yesterday in its traditional turnout model:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 47%. This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24….

Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support had stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain was in the 44% to 46% range. It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers reflect a lasting change or statistical noise. Two of the last three nights of polling show a closer race than was found in the previous month.

We talked quite a bit about polling at last night’s Talk the Vote event.  All three hosts reminded people that Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan with eight days left in the race in 1980 outside the margin of error.  Furthermore, the rising number of refusals — those who refuse to participate in telephone polling — make the predictive value of electoral polling more questionable than ever before.  Michael Medved said that some pollsters report refusal levels as high as 80%.

Given Rasmussen’s consistent methodology and calculations, it gives a reliable trendline for the election.  The gap that had opened after the financial meltdown at the end of September appears to have almost disappeared.  As people begin considering the future, they have to ask themselves: which candidate has the experience and the proven mettle of crisis management?  John McCain has a long record of handling tough problems; Barack Obama wrote a letter and gave a speech.

Today, I’ll talk to IBD’s Terry Jones on the Ed Morrissey Show about their TIPP daily tracking poll, which also shows a margin-of-error race.  We’ll talk at length about polling and its challenges, and what Jones sees as the overall direction of the race.  This isn’t over yet, and it may just be getting interesting now.

Update: Terry Jones was in a serious car accident last night.  He’ll be OK, but he’s obviously in no shape to do a half hour of radio today.  Instead, we’ll talk with IBD’s Monica Showalter on other topics, and wish Terry the best in his recovery.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

Dude.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 29, 2008 at 11:42 AM

Of course it’s not over…I mean it’s over for Team Messiah, they just aren’t yet aware of it.

Forget the polls, concentrate on voting.

Bishop on October 29, 2008 at 11:43 AM

I’ve always likened this to the 1976 race where a lackluster candidate was competeing against a media darling with liberal ideas.
Ford closed 8 points in a week and just ran out of time-hoping we get the 2 days that Ford needed.

jjshaka on October 29, 2008 at 11:44 AM

Oh gawd! I had resigned myself to an Obama win. Now, if McCain loses, it will be even harder to digest after having hope in the final days. Go Johnny Go!

Sue on October 29, 2008 at 11:44 AM

Go Go Go Go!!!!!

We’ll see how long it takes Democratic Underground to become completely hysterical…

Realist on October 29, 2008 at 11:44 AM

Now obligatory when discussing the “margin of error”:

http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2008/10/balls-and-urns.html

Abby Adams on October 29, 2008 at 11:44 AM

McCain will win.

carbon_footprint on October 29, 2008 at 11:44 AM

This is where we want to be.

wise_man on October 29, 2008 at 11:46 AM

go Johnny, go Johnny, go Johnny go.

kanda on October 29, 2008 at 11:46 AM

Vera
http://confederateyankee.mu.nu/archives/276853.php

bloggless on October 29, 2008 at 11:46 AM

McCain/PALIN will win.

Sarah.

Bishop on October 29, 2008 at 11:46 AM

I do believe that if it’s within MOE going into Tuesday, especially in polls conducted by organizations that have been using the hopeychangey model, McCain will win.

t.ferg on October 29, 2008 at 11:47 AM

Hope is making a comeback.

bloggless on October 29, 2008 at 11:47 AM

Right. we’ve got Joementum and Joe the plumber on our side.

kanda on October 29, 2008 at 11:47 AM

OT: Another hard hitting interview for Teh One

Obama stopping by “The Daily Show”

Does our Messiah complex lead us to think we can totally dominate the media tonight?

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 29, 2008 at 11:48 AM

Given Rasmussen’s consistent methodology and calculations, it gives a reliable trendline for the election.

I don’t think his poll could have changed that fast without the weights being changed….

ninjapirate on October 29, 2008 at 11:48 AM

This comes as Gallup also shows it a margin-of-error race as of yesterday in its traditional turnout model:

Ah, isn’t it odd that Gallup suddenly finds value with its TRADITIONAL polling method? I guess you can rake in a lot of extra bucks as a pollster by giving the customer what they want, then at the last moment revert to the TRADITIONAL method of polling so history won’t record how absurdly wrong your polling was after the election results are known. Nothing but crooks at Gallup.

Maxx on October 29, 2008 at 11:48 AM

Michael Medved said that some pollsters report refusal levels as high as 80%.

Exactly. And what type of voter is more likely to refuse to participate in media polls?

1) An Obama supporter who believes that the media is basically fair in their reporting?

or…

2) A McCain voter who knows that the media is abjectly biased and will do anything to hurt McCain…including using polls to try to dampen voter turnout for McCain?

rvastar on October 29, 2008 at 11:48 AM

The polls are tightening you say?

On the LA Times Obama tape.

From stoptheaclu.com:

Saw a clip from the tape. Reason we can’t release it is because statements Obama said to rile audience up during toast. He congratulates Khalidi for his work saying “Israel has no God-given right to occupy Palestine” plus there’s been “genocide against the Palestinian people by Israelis.”
It would be really controversial if it got out. That’s why they will not even let a transcript get out.

I have no idea what their track record is, who their contacts are, or if this will gain any real traction.

But it’s interesting to ponder, just the same.

Dorvillian on October 29, 2008 at 11:49 AM

Is Rush never wrong?

Tommy_G on October 29, 2008 at 11:49 AM

I hope Obambi’s morons dance and do all their choreographed garbage on election night…and then the bottom falls out and they LOSE!!

AubieJon on October 29, 2008 at 11:49 AM

Vera
http://confederateyankee.mu.nu/archives/276853.php

bloggless on October 29, 2008 at 11:46 AM

They’d better have more than that.

Vashta.Nerada on October 29, 2008 at 11:50 AM

I feel a righteous wind. Anyone else feeling it?

Go Johnny Go!

Sue on October 29, 2008 at 11:50 AM

Rasmussen is a real poll (in that it is not BS) but the battlegrounds look tough. Every vote is going to count. Defeatocoms, time to stop screwing around and get behind McCain (if only for Palin’s sake).

Mr. Joe on October 29, 2008 at 11:52 AM

You know what’s odd, Obarfy never tried to get his Magical Power Half Hour aired on FOX.

You would think he would want to opportunity to persuade what the left considers a conservative audience, so what will it be, a gooey docudrama for easily-swooning liberals on all the usual networks?

I smell desperation in the wind.

Bishop on October 29, 2008 at 11:53 AM

I’ll be awfully interested in seeing how the talking heads who have already stated shoveling dirt on Maverick’s coffin will talk their way out of an Obama loss. Ed Rollins and Tucker Carlson come to mind.

Pablo on October 29, 2008 at 11:53 AM

Fox News is reporting that Obama is putting out urgent GOTV calls in battleground states. Don’t believe the polls people. Vote!

Go Johnny Go!

Sue on October 29, 2008 at 11:56 AM

The polls are trying to legitimate themselves with last minute accuracy. Bastards. Also, hopefully the Obama saturation level tonight will turn off a few more fence sitters. What about the “bandwagon” effect also switching a bit in search of being on the winning side. That could also move the polls a point or so.

Keyser-Soze on October 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM

You know what’s odd, Obarfy never tried to get his Magical Power Half Hour aired on FOX.

He’s on Fox, just not FoxNews, the cable channel. He’s the reason Fox is delaying tonight’s World Series game.

OT: Fox and baseball have screwed up this series enough, and the weather hasn’t helped. Few people are watching. I might just skip it tonight as a protest for allowing Obama the right to interfere with something much more important than he is.

JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM

These polls like to make headlines. Rush is right!
Now, to gain credibility they have to gradually pull up the poll numbers for McCain.
We all know McCain will win, not the socialist because of the republicans uniting and our allies the PUMAs.

jencab on October 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM

Knowing that Obama has outspent McCain 3:1, yet is only 2 points ahead does my heart some good. Not all are being Obamboozled by this candidate, of which we know very, very, scary little. There is hope!

epb on October 29, 2008 at 11:58 AM

Barry’s 30 minute infomercial is going to backfire.

Bank on it!

FiveWays on October 29, 2008 at 11:58 AM

Here you go, a synopsis of Obarky’s Power Half Hour. The goof is going to trot out four families to showcase how America has failed them.

The dems never learn.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/us/politics/29obama.html?_r=2&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Bishop on October 29, 2008 at 11:59 AM

I don’t think his poll could have changed that fast without the weights being changed….

Rasmussen Reports will be 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated.

They’re more democratic now. Does this mean, with a 7.2% advantage in party id and only a 3% advantage in polling, that McCain is siphoning some I and D?

lodge on October 29, 2008 at 12:00 PM

I don’t think his poll could have changed that fast without the weights being changed….

ninjapirate on October 29, 2008 at 11:48 AM

But if you look at the early voting turnout numbers in some states, and see what turnout is actually shaping up to be, it might call for re-weighting the polls.

Sekhmet on October 29, 2008 at 12:00 PM

I’ve always likened this to the 1976 race where a lackluster candidate was competeing against a media darling with liberal ideas.
Ford closed 8 points in a week and just ran out of time-hoping we get the 2 days that Ford needed.

jjshaka on October 29, 2008 at 11:44 AM

Ford was down by 20 points in the Gallup poll on Labor Day. McCain has never been that far behind Obama. McCain and Palin also have united the Republicans behind their ticket, while a lot of Reagan supporters stayed home in 1976 and refused to support Ford. Carter was a Southerner and won states like Kentucky and Georgia that Obama has zero chance of winning.

This election is more like 2000 and 2004. The country remains close to 50-50. Obama has not closed the sale. People want change but they aren’t sure Obama is seasoned enough to do the job. I don’t think he has made a strong enough closing argument to win over those people and they will break heavily toward McCain this week.

It’s comical to me to read the stories today from reporters who are stunned and puzzled by the sudden leap in the Dow yesterday. It happened right after the Gallup Poll came out showing McCain within the margin of error. It’s the elephant in the room that the media will not talk about.

rockmom on October 29, 2008 at 12:00 PM

McCain will win. – carbon_footprint on October 29, 2008 at 11:44 AM

Um…that’s MY line.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:01 PM

Fox News is reporting that Obama is putting out urgent GOTV calls in battleground states. Don’t believe the polls people. Vote!

Go Johnny Go!

Sue on October 29, 2008 at 11:56 AM

Isn’t the Obama campaign ground game VERY strong — how does McCain hope to counter that?

Republican on October 29, 2008 at 12:01 PM

I’ll be awfully interested in seeing how the talking heads who have already stated shoveling dirt on Maverick’s coffin will talk their way out of an Obama loss. Ed Rollins and Tucker Carlson come to mind.

Pablo on October 29, 2008 at 11:53 AM

And some one promised a padded room for Olbermann.

Rovin on October 29, 2008 at 12:02 PM

Barry’s 30 minute infomercial is going to backfire. Bank on it! – FiveWays on October 29, 2008 at 11:58 AM

That’s ALSO my line. Both of them. Who the hell is running this thread, Joe “Kinnock” Biden?

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:02 PM

Vera
http://confederateyankee.mu.nu/archives/276853.php

bloggless on October 29, 2008 at 11:46 AM

Yeah, ace has been dangling this tidbit as well. Let’s hope something real surfaces before it’s too late. I checked out her website in Martinique a few weeks back. Nothing much there. I’ve read she is being paid by someone working for Mayor Daly, but like most everything concerning this, facts are still few.

JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 12:02 PM

Gonna take an onside kick and recovery but doable. We’ve got the big mo goin’. Be nice if someone in need of cash at the LA Times succumbs to Ace’s cash friendship offer.

a capella on October 29, 2008 at 12:03 PM

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:02 PM

That’s the thing about rashes. They spread.

JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 12:03 PM

The polls still say Obama’s up by 10-12 points here in Pennsylvania. Funny thing is, not only are McCain & Palin spending all of their time here, but Barry’s been stumping here too.

Last night on Greta’s show, Rudy declared, “We are going to win in Pennsylvania.” Something is cooking in the internal polling.

After tonight’s half-hour snoozefest, people are going to be so sick of seeing and hearing Barry Lipservice, I expect the national polls will be dead even by Friday.

fogw on October 29, 2008 at 12:03 PM

So how does fraud get factored into polling? It may be margin of error among voters but how many bogus ACORN votes are in the mix of all that early balloting? How many Democrat Mayors, Governors, and Secretaries of State are going to do stuff election day (like keeping the polls in liberal areas open longer than the red areas) that will help Obama?

This will be one ugly race.

highhopes on October 29, 2008 at 12:03 PM

Michael Medved said that some pollsters report refusal levels as high as 80%.

Shouldn’t refusals be counted like undecideds? I mean, if you are only getting 20% of the sample to answer, wouldn’t your poll look like 10% Obama, 9.8% McCain?
Anything else is just being misleading.

Count to 10 on October 29, 2008 at 12:03 PM

Isn’t the Obama campaign ground game VERY strong — how does McCain hope to counter that? – Republican on October 29, 2008 at 12:01 PM

Their ground game is very strong, but they are not scoring votes. Basically, $800 million will have been flushed down the crapper by November 4.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:04 PM

Um…that’s MY line.
ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:01 PM

WHOSE line?

*casually swings heavy crozier back and forth*

Bishop on October 29, 2008 at 12:04 PM

I don’t think his poll could have changed that fast without the weights being changed….

ninjapirate on October 29, 2008 at 11:48 AM

This is not an overnight change…this has been a gradual movement which has been reflected in every tracking poll out there…the race is tight and McCain seems to have momentum.

joepub on October 29, 2008 at 12:04 PM

Bottom line: The polls are fake…Mccain is going to win.

The only thing that has kept Hussein’s campaign alive is the phony polls and having the MSM in his pockets.

Imagine telling someone on 9/12/01 that in 7 years we would have a president named Barack Hussein Obama…it ain’t gonna happen!

SaintOlaf on October 29, 2008 at 12:05 PM

That’s the thing about rashes. They spread. – JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 12:03 PM

I don’t understand, JD. I use a medicated cream. Paging Dr. Cwac-Cwac!

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:05 PM

I am waiting to see the urgent request of the courts to keep Philadelphia polling places open extra hours. That will be the sign that Barry is in trouble.

Vashta.Nerada on October 29, 2008 at 12:05 PM

McCain will win. – carbon_footprint on October 29, 2008 at 11:44 AM

Um…that’s MY line.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:01 PM

Nope, in order to avoid infringement, I purposely left off the exclamation point.

carbon_footprint on October 29, 2008 at 12:05 PM

Watch the media call states early! Don’t listen, go vote!

jeffersonschild on October 29, 2008 at 12:06 PM

Basically, $800 million will have been flushed down the crapper by November 4.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:04 PM

Is there any truth to the rumor that Soros is planning to fund and support Cynthia McKinney against McCain in 2012? He was said to be on the lookout for a black female socialist lez.

JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 12:06 PM

Poor Peggy and Kathleen are probably a bit distraught at this point, peering back across the abyss and catching a whiff of burned structures.

a capella on October 29, 2008 at 12:08 PM

Look at the reception that the ‘Cuda got in Joe-Pa country, from my hometown newspaper:

http://www.lewistownsentinel.com/

My Mom said that there were Thousands turned away; and it was a sell-out!

And on the local news afterwards, they interviewed only Obama supporters, who said it wasn’t that big of deal!

It’s not just the Mainstream Media that’s in the Tank for “The One”!

Dale in Atlanta on October 29, 2008 at 12:08 PM

Is there any truth to the rumor that Soros is planning to fund and support Cynthia McKinney against McCain in 2012? He was said to be on the lookout for a black female socialist lez. – JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 12:06 PM

God I hope so. At this rate we’ll be able to finally bankrupt the old buzzard.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:08 PM

JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 12:06 PM

If there is a God then by 2012 Soros will be fetching cigarettes for OJ.

Limerick on October 29, 2008 at 12:09 PM

The accuracy of statistical analysis is predicated on normalized results. That is, a sample size of 1,000 can accurately represent a much larger population, subject to an ‘error of margin’, if the larger population as a whole is uncorrupted ie valid.

IOW, if people didn’t feel intimidated by expressing their political beliefs, by either lying, or by what is most likely happening, hanging up, and freely shared them with anonymous pollsters, then polling data could be judged as somewhat reliable.

However, this year this is expressly not the case. Due to the MSM’s unmitigated bias, 2008 is going to be studied in future years as to just how inaccurate polling can be in predicting outcomes.

kuhio on October 29, 2008 at 12:10 PM

Poor Peggy and Kathleen are probably a bit distraught at this point, peering back across the abyss and catching a whiff of burned structures. – a capella on October 29, 2008 at 12:08 PM

Preening Peggy is stocking up on Depends. Catty Kathy is doing likewise with d-cell batteries.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:10 PM

Um…that’s MY line.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:01 PM

Mine too! Along with posting here weeks ago that said the pollsters would cover thier ass’s in the last week so they didn’t end up looking like idiots. Throw in the Bradly effect and the Pumas that have not been considered in these polls, and we have a McCain winning this thing by 6-7 points.

Rupublican turn-out will be critical—–VOTE—–and make calls in battleground states supporting the ticket.

Rovin on October 29, 2008 at 12:11 PM

Tortoise vs. Hare

Brat on October 29, 2008 at 12:11 PM

Throw in the Bradly effect and the Pumas that have not been considered in these polls, and we have a McCain winning this thing by 6-7 points.- Rovin on October 29, 2008 at 12:11 PM

I cannot speak to the point spread. All I know for certain is that McCain will win and the margin will be substantial.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:12 PM

Even Rassmussen has included polling data obtained over the weekend dates. Why, I have no clue. It has been proven that data obtained over Friday, Saturday and Sunday heavily favors Democrats. A little over a month ago I looked at a place called Hedgehog. He suggested McCain would win OH and PA. This was when numbers coming out of Rassmussen and Real Clear were horrific for McCain.

If you look at the questions, and the more heavily weighing of Democrats it never computed to me that McCain was so far behind as many were saying. One Fox/Rassmussen poll taken on a weekend said only 7% of Democrats were going to cross over and vote McCain, and 9% of Republicans were going to vote for Obama. They have maintained this estimation for quite some time now, and I say rubbish. Anecdotal evidence, and statistical evidence does not suggest anything like this. Perhaps those of us that have dug deeper into the regions, and the polls really do have a better idea of what is not only going on at ground level, but are not so crazy in asserting we never saw this enormous lead like the Al Jazeera, I mean CBS/NYT polls were saying. Love to Allah! You poll monkey you!

It should not go without notice what Karl Rove, a.k.a El Diablo, has said about there being 300% more polls out there than in 2004. Call me crazy, but the inflation in the number of polls in connection with the number of voter fraud cases seems to point in the general direction of attempting to influence the political scenery, and outcome on a very grand scale. Wonder if they thought Americans would just not buy THE ONE without some very heavy selling, and tampering? Hmmm?

The Jedi mind tricks of THE ONE and his gang just did not work for me. They did not work on Rush either. No, Rush is not wrong 98% of the time. That leaves him wrong only 2% of the time. Now go forth in your X-Wing fighter squads, and nuke THE ONE and his zombies! VOTE IN MASS!!!!!!!!!!

freeus on October 29, 2008 at 12:12 PM

Is there any truth to the rumor that Soros is planning to fund and support Cynthia McKinney against McCain in 2012? He was said to be on the lookout for a black female socialist lez. – JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 12:06 PM

God I hope so. At this rate we’ll be able to finally bankrupt the old buzzard.

Forget bankrupting him….IMPRISON HIM immediately for his illegal manipulation of the U.S. stock market three weeks before the election.

SaintOlaf on October 29, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Furthermore, the rising number of refusals — those who refuse to participate in telephone polling — make the predictive value of electoral polling more questionable than ever before.

A big BRAVO!!! to the refusers!

misslizzi on October 29, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Isn’t the Obama campaign ground game VERY strong — how does McCain hope to counter that? – Republican on October 29, 2008 at 12:01 PM

Their ground game is very strong, but they are not scoring votes. Basically, $800 million will have been flushed down the crapper by November 4.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:04 PM

Ground games do score votes if he can turn out: the homeless (Ohio), new voters (i.e. campus upon campus of young people), those on social assistance who otherwise wouldn’t vote, new immigrants… don’t think they won’t do it… they will… in a BIG way.

Republican on October 29, 2008 at 12:13 PM

No man for any considerable period can wear one face to himself and another to the multitude, without finally getting bewildered as to which may be the true. ~Nathaniel Hawthorne

Limerick on October 29, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Sweetness.

CP on October 29, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Manly and carbon are going to be proven correct.

DarkCurrent on October 29, 2008 at 12:14 PM

The polls always tighten right before the election. It’s very unusual for anyone to win in a landslide.

It’s still Obama’s to lose.

My prediction on the final popular vote: Obama: 51%; McCain 48%; Others: 1%.

Obama gets in the low 300s for EVs.

jim m on October 29, 2008 at 12:14 PM

The daily kos poll (which is obviously weighted heavily towards dems) has Obama’s lead dropped from 12 to 6 in the pasr 4 days.

BadgerHawk on October 29, 2008 at 12:15 PM

Furthermore, the rising number of refusals — those who refuse to participate in telephone polling — make the predictive value of electoral polling more questionable than ever before. Michael Medved said that some pollsters report refusal levels as high as 80%.

Holy cow. I think it’s safe to bet most people who refuse will vote for McCain. Obama supporters really seem to enjoy advertising their intention to vote for Obama. It’s why the exit polls became so ridiculous late in the Democrat primaries. By the time PA rolled around, the networks just started to throwing them in the trash can.

forest on October 29, 2008 at 12:16 PM

So my anxieties related an Obama win are going away.

Now my anxieties related a McCain administration are starting.

But I prefer the ones related to McCain. That way I get to keep my guns at least. :)

dc84123 on October 29, 2008 at 12:17 PM


Last night on Greta’s show, Rudy declared, “We are going to win in Pennsylvania.” Something is cooking in the internal polling.

fogw on October 29, 2008 at 12:03 PM

No offence, but what the heck do you expect him to say: “You know Greta, we’re on track to lose Pennsylvania”. Come on. This is spin. They all do it.

Republican on October 29, 2008 at 12:18 PM

Has the nation forgotten what it felt like on 9/12/01? I remember thinking that these types of acts were going to happen every couple of years, and I tried to accept that…well, thanks to President Bush, we have been able to go back to a bit of a 9/10/01 mindset, for better or worse…which in some ways has made a person like Obama viable…This guy scares me…a total empty suit.

When Biden says he has a spine of steel, I wonder where he has every demonstrated it. I have never seen it. I don’t think anyone has. Why does Biden say that, because BO talks tough?

He is the type of guy who thinks that because he is “smart”, charming, charismatic, etc, that he can outtalk and outsmart his way past any problem.
Sometimes you can, often, in this world you can’t. You need to use muscle…DOES BO POSSESS THE GUTS TO USE MUSCLE? NO

joepub on October 29, 2008 at 12:18 PM

Forget bankrupting him….IMPRISON HIM immediately for his illegal manipulation of the U.S. stock market three weeks before the election.

SaintOlaf on October 29, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Somebody check my temperature. I’m agreeing with SaintOlaf.

Sekhmet on October 29, 2008 at 12:20 PM

Did everyone else see the Kos Kidz starting to sweat yesterday? One of them said “TALK ME DOWN FROM THE LEDGE” and Ace responsed “YOU WILL DIE BITTER AND ALONE.”

If the polls continue this trend going into election day, look for the left to be in full meltdown mode. I don’t know why; Brunner will build a bonfire on television of all the Johnnie Mac ballots she can get her hands on and gift Ohio to Obama.

Physics Geek on October 29, 2008 at 12:20 PM

Right. we’ve got Joementum and Joe the plumber on our side.

kanda on October 29, 2008 at 11:47 AM

And occasionally Joe Biden…

CliffHanger on October 29, 2008 at 12:20 PM

That’s ALSO my line. Both of them. Who the hell is running this thread, Joe “Kinnock” Biden?

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:02 PM

I didn’t see a trade mark stamp on that.

I repeat:

Barry’s 30 minute infomercial is going to backfire.

Bank on it!

FiveWays on October 29, 2008 at 12:21 PM

Rush Baby–

You listening to Rush L. now? He’s using your FDR second bill of rights stuff. I love talking to him through here.

HEY RUSH. I’M FREE THIS WEEKEND.

JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 12:22 PM

Comeback?

No.

“We Need To Cease the Psy-Ops And Start Reporting The Numbers More Accurately As The Election Approaches.”

Anyone who’s been through at least 2 previous presidential election cycles should have seen this coming.

thirteen28 on October 29, 2008 at 12:23 PM

My prediction on the final popular vote: Obama: 51%; McCain 48%; Others: 1%. Obama gets in the low 300s for EVs. – jim m on October 29, 2008 at 12:14 PM

Your track record is going to take a substantial hit on the evening of November 4.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:24 PM

Barry’s 30 minute infomercial is going to backfire.

Bank on it!

FiveWays on October 29, 2008 at 12:21 PM

We’ll see. Not sure about that. People like him in those settings. He’ll play it safe, talking to the camera, showing off his daughters and his wife… just a regular family guy… it’s crap, we know, but the average person will think: “Nothing wrong with him — he’s just what we need”.

Republican on October 29, 2008 at 12:24 PM

ManlyRash,

Don’t take it personally. They are just now figuring out you aren’t crazy, and are probably right. I’ve believed you all along.

Go Johnny go go go. Go Johnny go go go. Johnny Be good!

Sekhmet on October 29, 2008 at 12:25 PM

My prediction on the final popular vote: Obama: 51%; McCain 48%; Others: 1%. Obama gets in the low 300s for EVs. – jim m on October 29, 2008 at 12:14 PM

captured.

(h/t Treacher)

JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 12:25 PM

The daily kos poll (which is obviously weighted heavily towards dems) has Obama’s lead dropped from 12 to 6 in the pasr 4 days. – BadgerHawk on October 29, 2008 at 12:15 PM

Be on the lookout for a rash of moonbat suicides on Nov 4 and 5.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:26 PM

It’s still Obama’s to lose.

And he will. Just now on the hourly update ABC News led with the possible backlash against his 30-minute informercial. “Will the public get sick of him?” said the reporter. I listen daily and have never heard anything from the ABC newspot EVER critical of him. Ever.

Marcus on October 29, 2008 at 12:26 PM

I’ve believed you all along. – Sekhmet on October 29, 2008 at 12:25 PM

How sweet of you. Ever thought of changing your name to Isis? As I recall, Sekhmet is a pretty nasty Egyptian goddess.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:27 PM

And he will. Just now on the hourly update ABC News led with the possible backlash against his 30-minute informercial. “Will the public get sick of him?” said the reporter. I listen daily and have never heard anything from the ABC newspot EVER critical of him. Ever.

Marcus on October 29, 2008 at 12:26 PM

ABC isn’t airing his sitcom tonight, so they’re being pissy.

JiangxiDad on October 29, 2008 at 12:29 PM

Isn’t the Obama campaign ground game VERY strong — how does McCain hope to counter that?

Republican on October 29, 2008 at 12:01 PM

The RNC wrote the book on GOTV. Ask anyone in Ohio. Democrats were absolutely stunned at the GOP turnout in Ohio in 2004. The same people are running it again. I have already signed up here in PA.

Obama had a strong ground game in the CAUCUSES, and a pretty good organization to register new voters. There is no proof anywhere that this translated into votes in elections. He outspent Hillary 10-1 in Pennsylvania and lost the primary by 10 points. They’ve been bussing college kids down here from New York City to canvass on weekends, but that has been suspended now, and the RNC is now bringing people in from all over the place to PA and Ohio. The RNC is also sending busloads from California into New Mexico and Nevada, and from the South into Indiana and Ohio.

Don’t be fooled into thinking Obama has a superior GOTV operation, especially in the battleground states.

I think Obama is trying to win a large popular vote victory, so that if he loses in the Electoral College all hell will break loose. It will be much worse than 2000.

rockmom on October 29, 2008 at 12:29 PM

ManlyRash,

Don’t take it personally. They are just now figuring out you aren’t crazy, and are probably right. I’ve believed you all along.

Go Johnny go go go. Go Johnny go go go. Johnny Be good!

Sekhmet on October 29, 2008 at 12:25 PM

Nobody thinks ManlyRash is crazy — everyone here is hoping (praying) he is right… but basing this in just a “gut feel” and repeating it over and over again, in the face of a sh*tstorm of media bias, dirty Democratic money and an electorate half-asleep and apathetic, is just a bit hard to believe. We all want it to be true that McCain wins… but to think that people will just automatically wake-up on election day is… well… hard to believe.

Work our a** off for McCain/Palin, but if they don’t pull it off, don’t be surprised. 2008 was always going to be a tough year.

That said, I’m off to do some Ohio phonebanking for them.

Republican on October 29, 2008 at 12:31 PM

Look, this is a no brainer.

Listen to the Democrats in Pennsylvanis. You got Jack Murtha calling his own Democrats racists, rednecks, and now his opponent a carpetbagger.

You got Liberal radio hosts there calling people racists too. Gov. Rendell in the past has called his own state racist.

The only time Democrats call people racist is when they dont agree with them. So by that alone, tells me, that McCain is winning Penn State!

Also, all teh current news is on Obama, and none of it is good. His tax plan is taking a beating right now. Joe the Plumber is still out there in the spotlight. Joe Biden is blacklisting media outlets. The LA Times has a viedotape they will not allow anybody to see.

All this is hurting Obama, at the wrong time.

TheHat on October 29, 2008 at 12:34 PM

dc84123 on October 29, 2008 at 12:17 PM

One major difference between McCain and Osama Obama, IMO:

If McCain is shown the public doesn’t want what he’s pushing — particularly putting out the welcome mat for illegals — in time he’ll back off. He sincerely wants to do what’s right for the country, and will listen to people who disagree with him.

Obama the Marxist/totalitarian will tolerate no dissent, and will rule as if he’s getting the word from God. The word “megalomanic” comes to mind.

So don’t worry. Simply join those who don’t support a particular McCain policy. It’s the American way.

If (God forbid) The Messiah wins, prepare to be attacked and investigated if you are traitorous enough to oppose him.

MrScribbler on October 29, 2008 at 12:37 PM

The Obama minions have been working on getting Barack into the White House for months now. John McCain is on the verge of destroying their chances – all within just a few short days.

We can help by contacting our local McCain campaign office and asking them what they need from each us, in addition to our votes, to ensure he wins. Do we need to make some calls or knock on a few doors? Do we need to transport and assist some old folks to the polls? Make coffee and buy donuts for other campaign volutneers?

This is the time to pitch in because we can accomplish in just a few days, what Obama’s organization has been trying to do since I-don’t-know-when, and that’s win this thing for our country’s future.

Imagine beating a campaign juggernaut that’s outspent our guy by orders of magnitude all within the final days.

Imagine defeating a campaign who employed race-baiting and sexist tactics in an attempt to silence all dissent and opposition.

Imagine sending a message to Obama’s socialist allies as well as countries who don’t like us much, that in defeating Barak Obama, we voted for America first.

And best of all, imagine sending die-hard libs into a death-spiral of depression for years to come. :)

CliffHanger on October 29, 2008 at 12:38 PM

Nobody thinks ManlyRash is crazy — everyone here is hoping (praying) he is right… but basing this in just a “gut feel” and repeating it over and over again, in the face of a sh*tstorm of media bias, dirty Democratic money and an electorate half-asleep and apathetic, is just a bit hard to believe. – Republican on October 29, 2008 at 12:31 PM

You don’t have to believe me. But it’s not a “gut” feeling or a hunch or a hope. It’s knowledge – factual data in my head.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:39 PM

You don’t have to believe me. But it’s not a “gut” feeling or a hunch or a hope. It’s knowledge – factual data in my head.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2008 at 12:39 PM

Then share the factual data — :-)

Republican on October 29, 2008 at 12:42 PM

Comment pages: 1 2