Gallup: McCain within two among traditional likely voters
posted at 1:44 pm on October 28, 2008 by Allahpundit
Much depends upon turnout, needless to say, since the “expanded” likely voter model has Obama by seven. Split the difference and you’re in line with both Zogby and Rasmussen, which put The One up by four and five points, respectively. Hopefully that’s the first sign of the polls tightening as voters start to focus during the final week. Hasn’t shown up in the state data yet, though: The RCP map actually looks slightly worse today than it did last week, with Ohio having flipped to “Leans Dem” and Arizona now within seven points.
As for the Pew poll being circulated, I can only assume it’s an outlier notwithstanding the large sample. Obama by 16, thanks to an eight-point lead among voters 65 and older and a four-point lead in Republican states? Even I’m not that pessimistic. Exit question: Is it time for the ceremonial election predictions thread or should we wait until Monday?
Update: The Pew poll claims Obama leads among self-described early voters by 19. The new WaPo/ABC tracker is surprisingly in line with that, putting the margin at 21. Either all the Barry O voters are coming out early or else the expanded voter model is apt to be even more expanded than we fear next week.
Blowback
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lets hope
Roger Waters on October 28, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Audio of Obama in his own words talking about his radical agenda hits the web and people are still voting for him? I don’t even understand America anymore.
D0WNT0WN on October 28, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Let’s wait.
I’m not doing the election night beer run until this weekend.
Slublog on October 28, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Gallup’s traditional likely voter model has 100 more voters in its sample than the expanded likely voter model. This seems odd.
Mark1971 on October 28, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Wait until Monday. You never know what might “drop” over the weekend.
Plus, as I’ve been saying, this is a Tortoise vs. Hare race.
Brat on October 28, 2008 at 1:49 PM
The polls to really watch will be the Exit Polls next tuesday. I seem to remember four years ago that they were showing a democratic landslide. Remember how that came out. The polls up to now haven’t really been used to predict the outcome, but to try and influence the outcome.
Tommy_G on October 28, 2008 at 1:50 PM
A few immediate thoughts:
1. Does this mean the Obama radio interview tape is having an effect on likely voters?
2. Is this the traditional “narrowing” of polls towards the actual result so that they can claim “We were right! We didn’t skew towards the Democrats!”?
3. When they refer to “turnout models”, do they mean the 40D-25R-35I model they all seem to be running with these days? Because that’s an extremely skewed turnout towards Democrats and overstates Obama’s support from his base while understating McCain’s support from his base and independents.
teke184 on October 28, 2008 at 1:50 PM
McCain WINS!!!!! city’s burn! can you see that headline?
grapeknutz on October 28, 2008 at 1:50 PM
I still say a shocking McCain landslide…once you remove all the dead, illegal alien, convicts who cast their votes.
ocbrat on October 28, 2008 at 1:50 PM
MCAIN BIG! Takes PA, OH, FL, VA,
OSUBuciz1 on October 28, 2008 at 1:51 PM
And IBD is getting tighter and tighter…..And lets see which is more historically accurate? Pretty sure its IBD.
Rbastid on October 28, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Down by a pair, our guys have 2 men on, it’s the bottom of the ninth, the other team’s closer can’t quite nail it down…
Yipes!
YOU GOTTA BELIEVE!!!
Bruno Strozek on October 28, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Hair Salon Poll.
The place that does my wifes hair has been asking clients who they plan to vote for. McCain is ahead 75% to 25%. Who said females were leaning to Obamarama?
Granted – middle class area – but in heavily Democarp Cook County in Ill-noise.
BobK on October 28, 2008 at 1:52 PM
and how many of the likely voters are just saying that they’re voting for Obama, but actually voting McCain?
El_Terrible on October 28, 2008 at 1:52 PM
People do not realize how many folks are saying they are voting for Obama and have no intention of doing so.
Elizabetty on October 28, 2008 at 1:54 PM
HAR! Great minds.
Elizabetty on October 28, 2008 at 1:54 PM
The Republicans are going to have to cast votes in record numbers to overcome the increase in Democrat voters.
I expect the lower income voters to increase their voter % by 14 or more.
We have to move our % near 80% to offset that difference. It is going to be…can we motivate our people to cast there votes.
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Traditionalists vote next Tuesday.
The silent majority wins this one.
Entelechy on October 28, 2008 at 1:56 PM
OT, but check this interesting passage from a Pam Meister
CanadianGuy on October 28, 2008 at 1:56 PM
I’m with you, I don’t get it.
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 1:56 PM
Hopefully by next week someone will have Mac up–we’ll get late momentum. Great thing about this poll is that all those MSMs polls showing Mac down big are not having a big effect on the race.
IR-MN on October 28, 2008 at 1:56 PM
I hope McCain does win. I still believe that a lot of Americans will get the jitters and vote McCain/Palin. Don’t know why I feel it. But, I do.
sheebe on October 28, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Yar!
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 28, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Wait until Monday on that exit question.
t.ferg on October 28, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Don’t give up, people. And don’t let anyone you know give up. Please?
Tanya on October 28, 2008 at 1:58 PM
My scientific poll of normal, sane, average, working Americans who live in my neighborhood say McPalin in a landslide.
The abnormal, insane, weird, jobless people of suspect citizenship are uniformly for Obarka.
GetRodgered is also voting for Odummy. Go figure.
Bishop on October 28, 2008 at 1:58 PM
MCCAIN WINS IN A 50 STATE LANDSLIDE!!
THERE IS NO WAY THIS COUNTRY WILL ELECT A TERRORIST AS OUR PRESIDENT!
SaintOlaf on October 28, 2008 at 1:58 PM
If the Obamites all take a day off work, how many times do you think they can each vote in a day?
justincase on October 28, 2008 at 1:58 PM
I’m more apt to lean towards the “early voter” is is just that, not an expanded electorate.
If you notice all of Obama’s ads, he is pushing people to vote early.
Why? So that if something comes out in the last week, like, lets say, his tax policy now increasing taxes on 75,000 income, you can’t change your vote for him.
Thats the point of early voting. To get your vote before you find out all the gorey details.
Samhain on October 28, 2008 at 1:59 PM
I’m doing my part. I’m voting McCain/Palin in Arizona! Mrs Magoo and Grandpa Magoo too!
McCain isn’t getting much of the Hispanic vote – at least in Arizona. Apparently Yankee Daddy was a bust on the campaign trail. Maybe he should have promised to close the borders instead. Just sayin’.
Mr_Magoo on October 28, 2008 at 1:59 PM
Fox says IBD has it within the margin of error, and Hillbuzz is claiming union memebers are deliberatly lying to pollsters to protect their jobs.
I’m cautiously optimistic.
I’d feel better if McCain/Palin booked a 1/2 hour to an hour to respond to Barry HO’s infomercial
Iblis on October 28, 2008 at 2:00 PM
oh puhleeze. People aren’t going to vote for Obama. Stupid people are loud is all.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Doesn’t matter. ACORN can produce “voters” at will. Between this, and all that illegal cash; the fix is in……..
FiveWays on October 28, 2008 at 2:02 PM
It’s pretty clear looking at the past several weeks of polling that Palin gives a lot of Americans the jitters, hence McCain’s problem.
okonkolo on October 28, 2008 at 2:02 PM
I heard on Rush that none of the MSM even played the “Let’s re-write the constitution” tapes. I asked one of my bleeding heart liberal sisters in CA if they’de heard it, and she flat out said, “I wouldn’t believe the weather if it came from FOX or Rush Limbaugh”. I’m dumbfounded that (generally) normal, educated people “want to give him a chance” “see what he can do” and my favorite: “I’m so tired of having a president that embarrasses us”.
I don’t know about y’all, but I’m going to have a very hard time forgiving friends and relatives that are helping to put this communist in office.
anniekc on October 28, 2008 at 2:02 PM
>>McCain isn’t getting much of the Hispanic vote – at least in Arizona. Apparently Yankee Daddy was a bust on the campaign trail. Maybe he should have promised to close the borders instead. Just sayin’.
Mr_Magoo on October 28, 2008 at 1:59 PM>>>
The smartest girl in my daugher’s class was pushing for Obama because she’s Hispanic and doesn’t like the idea of work permits for her illegal friends. My daughter and another McCain friend have been talking to her. Yesterday she told my daughter that she told her parents to vote for McCain. What made the difference? Obama’s infanticide stance.
If the Roman Catholics of every ethniciy in this nation vote pro-life McCain will win it in a landslide.
justincase on October 28, 2008 at 2:03 PM
If you look at the Real Clear Politics average that Drudge has, Barry is currently in a free fall.
He was over 9, then he dropped to 8 yesterday. And just over night he lost over two points and is now down to 6.
Enoxo on October 28, 2008 at 2:04 PM
Noonan as Press Sec., no way, way too many loyal liberal journalists. She has too much anti-dem baggage. The speech writer for Reagan?
The NYT needs someone from the “right” and with her fence sitting she would fit with the NYT.
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:04 PM
African Americans are 13% of the population. The media vilifies Bush for 5 years. Dems sabotage the economy. F*ck it. We’ll still win.
marklmail on October 28, 2008 at 2:04 PM
We also have to look at the fact that people are so overzealous about voting for Obama that they practically peeing their pants to get to the poles the instant they opened in order to cast their votes.
I’m betting that, come next Tuesday, the numbers will radically change. Not everyone who has been able to vote early has done so. Many are probably just waiting until a more appropriate time.
jedijson on October 28, 2008 at 2:04 PM
McCain is within the margin of error, and gaining. Throw in the Bradley effect and voila! Though I would not call it the Bradley effect. I think it is better named the “Here’s a stick in your eye MSM, we do not want some socialist spreading our wealth” effect.
Theworldisnotenough on October 28, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Anyone think that Palin schedules a full hour with O’Reilly for later in the week or next Monday night? I would imagine with the bloviator hyping it, that it would get as good or better ratings than Obama’s Shamwow infomercial.
rw on October 28, 2008 at 2:05 PM
In a year of wildly fluctuating poll numbers, one Big Media statistic has remained sacrosanct – the Hispanic vote will break nearly +50% to the benefit of Obama. This unprecedented margin has placed battleground states New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida in jeopardy and if accurate could be the factor in a large Dem. victory. I do not have access to recent poll internals, but all of my instincts tell me that this margin is exaggerated. Didn’t Hillary defeat Barack pretty convincingly in this demographic in the primaries? Hasn’t McCain had strong support from Latinos in his Senate runs? The National Council of La Raza has an award it gives to elected officials who show courage in defense of the Latino community and McCain has won it twice! And, if I am not mistaken, McCain remains pledged to tackle comprehensive immigrant reform in the first 100 days of his presidency.
Months ago, the Democrat campaign ran ads that falsely portrayed Rush Limbaugh as an anti-Latino bigot and McCain as aligned with his views. Dispicable. Worse, this cheap and dishonest slander became a narrative the MSM piggybacked. IMAO, to have any chance at making this a winnable race again, Republicans (GOP, McCain camp, 527’s) and like minded Latinos must launch a tremendous media rebellion in the Latino community. Bring on Jose the Plumber! The margin is arguably not close to 50%, and, I believe incremental movement will be decisive in some key states. But that will not be enough. There must be recognition and support from the conservative blogosphere that we will participate in a political solution and not just espouse a bigger fence. Anyone up for that one?
Bluecaper on October 28, 2008 at 2:05 PM
With the same force you predicted Huckabee as being our nominee, then predicted he would be the VP nominee…you are officially disqualified from any predictions.
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:06 PM
If only. A pipe dream, but if only.
DAWN OF THE FINAL WEEK – SEVEN DAYS REMAIN!!!
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 28, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Which is why (Along with fraud concerns) I think this is a WRETCHED idea. Seriously, if people cannot get off their butts for the same day every four years, at the least, can we even say they are engaged enough to pull the lever? I am all for all groups voting, but, this is unbelievable. Why don’t they just have two weeks of FOR REAL-voting. Know what I mean? This scares me. I am really concerned that they are counting results illegally and are using some fraudulent registrations to fool with results. Where is ACORN right now? I want to see their hands…
Mommypundit on October 28, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Ask the HotAir poll Meister.
I have no clue.
Mcguyver on October 28, 2008 at 2:06 PM
“God Damn America” is despicable in any language.
marklmail on October 28, 2008 at 2:06 PM
They should do something stupid like a duck hunt or a basketball match. That would bring in the ratings
lodge on October 28, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Is the Obama effect “saying your going to vote for him to be cool”, but aren’t…the same as the bradley effect?
tomas on October 28, 2008 at 2:07 PM
I support this product or service!
Dittos.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 28, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Clearly it’s better to be in Obama’s position right now, but McCain still has a chance. If you’re a McCain/Palin voter, don’t let anything stop you from getting to the polls on election day (next Tuesday). If you have to crawl to the polling booth, do so. If you have relatives or neighbors who would vote for the ticket but can’t get there due to a lack of transportation, drive them or find someone who will. Offer your driving services (if you can) to your local veterans group. Spread the word about Obama’s tax plans, radical associations, et all to friends, family, and email lists. It’s not over, but it’s a tough climb.
amerpundit on October 28, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Pretty sure a lot of people who speak Iranian and Chinese like it.
Just sayin’.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 28, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Hugh Hewitt has already posted
RomneyMcCain Rising!sanjeevn on October 28, 2008 at 2:08 PM
>>I don’t know about y’all, but I’m going to have a very hard time forgiving friends and relatives that are helping to put this communist in office.
anniekc on October 28, 2008 at 2:02 PM>>>
This is why we HAVE to put the media on the defensive about why they have FAILED to report the facts to America.
I was floored in this election to find out that nobody checks the eligibility of a presidential candidate. That’s the job of we, the people – without access to official documents and with a media that covers up what little CAN be known. We’ve got judges and lawyers who make a killing over “protecting the Constitution”, but the very presidency of this nation is protected by nothing but CNN and Co (the same ones bribed by Saddam to be the mothpiece of his propaganda).
We HAVE to expose the MSM – and do whatever we can to amend the Constitution to make someone responsible for determining presidential eligibility BEFORE the election.
justincase on October 28, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Monday is the day for pre-election predictions, including state by state electoral counts.
Barring another Friday afternoon DUI story, I predict a nailbiter on Tuesday night. Of course, the press could present a fake “McCain eats live babies for breakfast story” and wouldn’t bother saying November Fools until after the election, so anything is possible at this point.
Physics Geek on October 28, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Actually they are 8% of the population.
SaintOlaf on October 28, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Dude, the impact of heavily biased press coverage is being reflected in polling numbers, but not in the way people are thinking.
It seems everyone is making the mistake of assuming polling results are accurate, but this is a residual effect from a previous era when there was at least a modest attempt at fair & balanced reporting.
I think one of the biggest things that will come out of this election is just how inaccurate polling can be in an environment where a hostile press is opposed to all conservative ideals.
I can’t for the life of me understand why anyone would willingly answer questions from a pollster, or if they did, to admit anything controversial (eg voting for McC/P). Nowhere do we see any report of the number of hang-ups or declines pollsters are receiving as they attempt to reach a valid statistical sample.
Some may call it the Bradley effect, but the social scientists are going to have to come up with a new label. The beautiful irony of having a dominant MSM projecting only one side is that polling accuracy has been absolutely corrupted.
kuhio on October 28, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Don’t forget the dogs.
tgharris on October 28, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Every time a pollster calls our house, we tell them we’re not interested, and hang up. I’m sure the liberals are much more willing to talk to these Obama water carriers.
rmgraha on October 28, 2008 at 2:09 PM
When McCain wins this, I’m going to go outside and listen very carefully to the sound of liberal heads exploding everywhere.
CurtZHP on October 28, 2008 at 2:09 PM
That’s what I’m thinking.
All my Obama supporting friends cast an early ballot because they can’t wait to vote for Obama.
I’m voting on Tuesday because, regardless of the fact that I hate crowds and waiting in line, I love being a part of Election Day and getting my “I Voted” sticker.
JadeNYU on October 28, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Monday! That way the fever pitch will make sure conservative turn-out is at its max.
Also, please remind all liberals that they are supposed to vote on Nov. 5th.
Rovin on October 28, 2008 at 2:10 PM
I believe that is a fact. IBD shows 44% Catholics for Obama, 44% for McCain.
btw, the Jewish vote is moving heavily in the direction of McCain. IBD today has 33% of Jews for McCain, with 5% still undecided. Compare that with 6% for McCain and 20% undecided 2 weeks ago.
Go JEWS!!!
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:10 PM
(Grabs mic) “No, ma’am. No, ma’am. He is not a terrorist.”
CanadianGuy on October 28, 2008 at 2:10 PM
agree, BO will be on TV to play Santa Clause for 30 minutes on all the major networks.
on other hand, that may make McCain come off as the Grinch who stole Christmas
jp on October 28, 2008 at 2:10 PM
Bradley effect voters don’t necessarily care about being “cool”. They just don’t want to be thought of as racist by voting for the white guy. So they say they’re voting for the black guy to prove that they’re tolerant.
The Obama effect, as you call it, is more likely to effect younger voters. They may like McCain, but it’s considered “cool” to vote for Obama, so they say they will to fit in. Then they vote for McCain in the polling booth.
Same premise (saying you’re voting for one guy so you’re not thought of as something else, but actually voting for the other one), but different types of voters effected.
amerpundit on October 28, 2008 at 2:11 PM
I’m worried that Indys will stay home if they haven’t already decided by now. And to the early voting point…if McCain is proven to have slept with Madonna last night I’ll be voting for him. Nothing would cause me to change my vote to The One. I’m sure those who are doing early voting feel pretty much the same way as I do.
Sue on October 28, 2008 at 2:11 PM
And Joe Biden flips a little squibbler over the catcher’s head.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on October 28, 2008 at 2:11 PM
It’s nice to stop and remember to smell the flowers. Thank you. Have a nice day. :)
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Ain’t gonna happen.
barry norris on October 28, 2008 at 2:12 PM
So, we know 8.5% of the population is voting for Obama.
marklmail on October 28, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Do lots of praying over the next 7 days
jp on October 28, 2008 at 2:13 PM
There was no “Bradley” effect. The only effect was that, like this race, as the election got closer, people say Mayor Bradley as being too liberal, too far left, and they revolted. There was no “I won’t vote for a black”, that was made up by the press and the dems to hide the true effect of how repulsed people are by the liberal agenda when it finally sees daylight.
The same thing is happening now, Obama is the most liberal candidate ever to run for President, and the reality is setting in.
Most could care less about “color”, it is the liberal mindset that scares people. If Thomas Sowell was young, and running for President, conservatives would trample over each other to cast our vote for him.
Sorry, the racist card doesn’t get played here…
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Not necessarily. There is probably 1-3% African American Republicans who won’t.
Enoxo on October 28, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Ewww! You don’t know where those hands have been! (And probably don’t want to know.)
rmgraha on October 28, 2008 at 2:14 PM
That’s what I’m thinkng, Samhain.
You know what else I’m thinking? If you’re going to vote more than once to take advantage of those phony ACORN names, you’ve got to start early…
CliffHanger on October 28, 2008 at 2:14 PM
I find it very hard to believe that voter participation will increase as much as the “expanded” model suggests.
Every year, Democrats declare that this is the year that college students will come out in huge numbers. And every year, they are wrong.
I can see blacks turning out in larger numbers, but they traditionally turn out in large numbers, and traditionally 90% of the vote Democrat anyway. I just don’t see a large boost there either.
MarkTheGreat on October 28, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Yeah, getting rid of those would be a real pain, wouldn’t it.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 28, 2008 at 2:15 PM
see the actual Early Voter Turnout so far, not what the MSM polls on early voting are trying to tell us:
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
doesn’t look like Obama is getting the early support he needs right now
jp on October 28, 2008 at 2:15 PM
I find the early voter numbers discouraging. I had always thought that early voting allows those “young voters” who don’t show up on Election Day an additional chance (or many chances) to vote. That puts our guy at a disadvantage.
SAZMD on October 28, 2008 at 2:16 PM
jp on October 28, 2008 at 2:10 PM
If the world series resumes in primtime tomorrow night, we can all thank the the weather-Gods for pre-empting Obama’s “info-propaganda-mercial”.
Rovin on October 28, 2008 at 2:16 PM
Go JEWS!!!
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:10 PM>>
Somebody needs to run an ad of Iran endorsing Obama, Biden swearing that Obama will be tested by June of 09, and Obama saying that Iran is just a tiny country and no threat.
(the perfect place to play LA Times’ Obama praising Khalidi tape also – if the LA Times had the guts to make it public)
justincase on October 28, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Actually they don’t, last election (and I will be off, but too lazy to Google) they were about 62%, they will be (my estimate) in the mid 70,s; that will account for nearly a 1% total in votes for the Dems.
Republicans will have to come out stronger then ever to counteract that.
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Mccain says
Mccain’s “October surprise” will take place on November 4th when he pulls out a document proving that Barack Osama is NOT a U.S. citizen or is in fact a dual citizen…thereby invalidating Obama’s votes and disqualifying him from the race.
SaintOlaf on October 28, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Man wouldn’t that just chap their hide. Hehehehe. Come on 7!
ronsfi on October 28, 2008 at 2:19 PM
Enoxo, that was a joke…see 8% and they will vote at 8.5%, meaning .5% are…never mind.
I thought it was funny…
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:20 PM
On the FoxNews home page RIGHT NOW is a collection of WANTED posters of those worldwide rogues voting for Barry.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:20 PM
If it’s the other way, one year from now the headline will be
“Obama Lied, America Died”.
ChrisM on October 28, 2008 at 2:21 PM
They’re not just early voters, they’re frequent voters.
flipflop on October 28, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Okay, now you are really banned from any predictions…or you must go on medication.
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:21 PM
I believe that is a fact. IBD shows 44% Catholics for Obama, 44% for McCain. JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:10 PM
Any Catholic who votes for someone who supports infanticide should be excommunicated.
PimFortuynsGhost on October 28, 2008 at 2:24 PM
If I’ve observed anything about Obama’s campaign, it’s that it’s entirely about playing games. So with expanded early voting, I’m confident that the Kool-Aid Brigade has been encouraged to vote early to get buzz going. I also suspect that early voting frees up the Kool-Aid brigade to return to the polls and add stress to the system on Tuesday or to otherwise be available for other theatrics. Remember, for Axelrod & Co., it’s all just about playing games. FWIW, I relish seeing Obama supporters waiting in long lines to vote early because only a fraction of the number of polling places are used for early voting.
For the undecideds, why would they race to vote early? Unless absolutely necessary, wouldn’t you expect undecideds to wait until Tuesday, especially if they actually take their votes seriously, wish to have as much information as possible, and believe that the media is totally in the tank for Obama? It could very well be that the undecideds want to hear what Obama says tomorrow night and then spend the weekend Googling all the stuff that’s come up in the campaign.
For the moment, I’m inclined to believe that the way early voters are skewing the vote is akin to counting only the absentee votes from military personnel.
BuckeyeSam on October 28, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Okay, now you are really banned from any predictions…or you must go on medication.right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Barack Hussein Obama traveled to Pokistan at age 20 on an indonesian passport.
Show me a document proving that he renounced his indonesian citizenship and regained his U.S. citzenship.
You can’t.
SaintOlaf on October 28, 2008 at 2:26 PM
Scanning news stories for “racism” charges over 91% of one race voting for one candidate…..looking…looking….looking.. Nope. Can’t find anything.
Star20 on October 28, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Who cares? As long as it keeps that Marxist out of the Oval Office, I’m good with it.
txsurveyor on October 28, 2008 at 2:28 PM
anybody practicing their Goose Step? We will all be Government Drones in a week……makes me want to quit my job and fire all my employees and wait for MY handout…
Oh yeah, my handout is hard work….guess I will be sleeping in….
SDarchitect on October 28, 2008 at 2:28 PM
That “slight” tightening in the Gallup “traditional” likely-voter model is more important than they lead readers to believe. Gallup tracking numbers are three-day averages, and the previous three days were 51-45, 50-45, and 50-45. In the latest 49-47 three-day average, the 51-45 day dropped off the average, but two 50-45 days are still in the average.
For Obama to have 49% in a three-day average, his total for three days is 49 * 3 = 147, including two 50% days (=100), which leaves 47% for the last day.
For McCain to have 47% in a three-day average, his total for three days is 47 * 3 = 141, including two 45% days (=90), which leaves 51% for the last day. So the last day of Gallup polling was roughly McCain 51, Obama 47 (possibly slightly more or less due to rounding of decimals.
It’s possible that Gallup could have gotten an unusually Republican-heavy sample last night. But a swing from Obama +5 to McCain +4 in one night may be significant! Influence of the Obama wealth-redistribution tape perhaps?
Steve Z on October 28, 2008 at 2:29 PM
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