Gallup: McCain within two among traditional likely voters
posted at 1:44 pm on October 28, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Much depends upon turnout, needless to say, since the “expanded” likely voter model has Obama by seven. Split the difference and you’re in line with both Zogby and Rasmussen, which put The One up by four and five points, respectively. Hopefully that’s the first sign of the polls tightening as voters start to focus during the final week. Hasn’t shown up in the state data yet, though: The RCP map actually looks slightly worse today than it did last week, with Ohio having flipped to “Leans Dem” and Arizona now within seven points.
As for the Pew poll being circulated, I can only assume it’s an outlier notwithstanding the large sample. Obama by 16, thanks to an eight-point lead among voters 65 and older and a four-point lead in Republican states? Even I’m not that pessimistic. Exit question: Is it time for the ceremonial election predictions thread or should we wait until Monday?
Update: The Pew poll claims Obama leads among self-described early voters by 19. The new WaPo/ABC tracker is surprisingly in line with that, putting the margin at 21. Either all the Barry O voters are coming out early or else the expanded voter model is apt to be even more expanded than we fear next week.
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I’m starting to get the funny feeling that McCain is going to pull off this huge suprise on election day.
I did my part voting absentee in North Carolina.
lavell12 on October 28, 2008 at 2:30 PM
44% to 44% in CATHOLICS??? WTF is THAT???
marklmail on October 28, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Actually, infanticide deserves homicide, imo, Catholic or otherwise. I believe the law concurs.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Fox just did a piece about a Jewish senior who told Joe The Plumber that he thought a vote for Obama was a vote for the end of Israel. Joe just said that he agreed. They’re both right.
I’ve been pounding this fact into the heads of my Jewish friends for a long time, now. The hard-core leftists are totally unmovable, as they’re voting out of self-hate and would be voting for Meretz if they were in Israel, but the others are beginning to understand the depth, and deadly serious nature, of the situation.
I think the Jewish vote will split 55%-45% in favor of BHO and the death of Israel (not including a release of the Khalidi dinner tape – which could move the Jewish vote in favor of McCain).
progressoverpeace on October 28, 2008 at 2:34 PM
What’s happening to NC? What is causing it to go purple? Is Libby Dole really in trouble there? I’ve been considering re-locating to the Blue Ridge mtn. area in a few years time, but find myself thinking more about northern S. Carolina and N. Georgia, than western NC, for political reasons only.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Show me a copy of his Indonesian passport.
See how that works?
You make the accusation, you back it up…
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Predictions? Don’t you know it’s a already done deal? I mean, when a man like Spike Lee tells me it is a done deal, well it must be true!
BacaDog on October 28, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Go JEWS! If you’re a Jew, how could you vote for Obama? Crazy.
marklmail on October 28, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Overwhelming African-American vote and the triangle liberals going for The One.
Yes.
BacaDog on October 28, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Dole is in some trouble (mainly from her over confidence). Western NC is beautiful, I live along the coast. The best part, is our houses have held their value better then perhaps anywhere else.
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:39 PM
well its been Democrat on State level since the Civil War, only 2 GOP Governors, although now we have a chance to get a good one unless it turns out it was just the wrong year for him to run.
aside from that, NC has a ton of Yankee transplants moving into our growing cities(Charlotte, Triangle). Thats the big problem, they are voting the same way they did up north.
Dole is probably in trouble, if she wins it’ll be close. She’s running against an idiot too.
South Carolina is a better state for tax purposes, no chance of going blue(less white liberals). Still alot of solid red areas in NC, just outside the cities
jp on October 28, 2008 at 2:39 PM
OT:
This was linked from Hillbuzz off PumaPac. I don’t know how legit it is but it sure does point out what we have thought is happening. Check it out.
This is how they do it. From a comment at hillbuzz early today.
October 27, 2008 at 5:04 am
Mommypundit on October 28, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Obama’s kenyan grandmother has made repeated statements that she witnessed his birth in a hospital IN KENYA!
SaintOlaf on October 28, 2008 at 2:40 PM
As they say, from your mouth to God’s ear. I’m afraid my Jewish family are hopelessly and rabidly Obama supporters. NOTHING you or he or anyone could say would change their minds. (btw, they’re Jewish in name only. They have no affiliation with any religion or any religious beliefs at all.) Needless to say, this election is splitting families, and starkly delineating the two camps in our country. And so it begins.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:40 PM
GREAT Hillbuzz article on PA, OSUBuciz1. Thanks for the link.
There once was a man named BarACK
Whose views took a socialist tack
Despite his success
With the lefties and press
He still couldn’t beat Johnny Mack
Rosmerta on October 28, 2008 at 2:42 PM
We have seen them here…couple of “Canadian guys”, a couple of others who pretend to be disappointed.
But we know who they are, and they are more like a mascot then anything else.
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:43 PM
You have no idea how right you are. Since the first week of September I’ve emailed my two kids the link for the absentee ballot form, told them to fill them out, sign them, and mail them in immediately. They “forgot.” I mailed them hard copies of the forms–all filled out–and told them to sign and mail. They “forgot.” They came home last weekend without them so I drove them to the County Clerk. The ballots arrived today but these too need to be filled out and signed. I overnighted them and included another postage-paid overnight envelope for them to mail the ballots in.
What do you think the odds are that they’ll make it back to NJ by Tuesday?
IrishEi on October 28, 2008 at 2:44 PM
Sorry to jump in here, but I think I just heard Rush say that a group has gathered up enough dough to run an ad on Rev. Wright.
Did anyone else hear that?
Oink on October 28, 2008 at 2:46 PM
Sadly enough, JiangxiDad, you’re right.
Obama could stand on the Capital steps quoting The Communist Manifesto while pissing on the US Constitution and it would get little notice.
BacaDog on October 28, 2008 at 2:46 PM
Perhaps you could get your kids verbal permission to cast their votes for them. Would that be kosher?
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:47 PM
How does that huge lead among “self-described” early voters reconcile against actual early voting numbers that we saw in Colorado and FL? Are there any new, actual numbers to look at?
DaveS on October 28, 2008 at 2:48 PM
this is seen everywhere, especially at newspaper sites that allow comments after articles.
jp on October 28, 2008 at 2:48 PM
here is the actual voter turnout so far, broke down
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
doesn’t look like Obama is getting the early support he needs right now
jp on October 28, 2008 at 2:50 PM
Dick Morris mentioned it last night on Hannity. He gave a website where you could donate to this 527 in order to fund Wright ads in battleground states. I gave them $200.
Here is the link if anyone has anything left to donate for a very good cause:
http://www.nationalrepublicantrust.com/
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:50 PM
BO supporters might be voting early, but McCain voters did it absentee. See you on election day :)
ashleymatt on October 28, 2008 at 2:51 PM
My girlfriend’s daughter is a sophomore in college and when her mother asked her if she was registered to vote, she became very irritated and said her vote doesn’t count. All I can think is that some liberal college professor imprinted that in her young mushy brain.
txsurveyor on October 28, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Sounds like propaganda. Catholics have got to be 98% or more to Mcain or they arent true Catholics.
We’re being brainwashed and deceived folks. Vote your heart but VOTE nonethheless. They are counting on us not nothering since everything says its already over. Its not over. Imagine being able to take a test after you see the answers! This is it! GO out and VOTE when its your time to!!
johnnyU on October 28, 2008 at 2:53 PM
oops “bothering”
johnnyU on October 28, 2008 at 2:53 PM
My family members would glibly dismiss it by saying something like “it’s just politics,” or “they all do that,” or “the Republicans are no better.” Deep down, they have a fear of Christians as jew haters, and think abortion rights is one of the Ten Commandments.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:54 PM
Blacks voting for Obama would have happened if Hillary was the nominee as well. That doesn’t change what happened to hillary, but it is a wash in the presidential race.
tomas on October 28, 2008 at 2:55 PM
Oh man,sorry. That was me. Didn’t mean to be spreading propaganda. Took it off today’s IBD poll. Accepted it as gospel, no pun intended.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:55 PM
Maybe! I’ll call ACORN and find out.
LOL
IrishEi on October 28, 2008 at 2:56 PM
I don’t know about that early voting thing, it seems to depend a lot on where you are. In Colorado for instance the voting was tilted Republican.
I think it would be better to wait and count them all on November 4th and see what we get. I am not really all that comfortable with the early voting thing myself.
It might well be that the election will be tighter than some people think. Personally I find the whole expander turnout thing to be ridiculous.
Terrye on October 28, 2008 at 2:58 PM
And btw, that Pew poll gave Democrats a 15 point advantage in sampling.
Terrye on October 28, 2008 at 2:58 PM
Another $100 now in the pot.
BacaDog on October 28, 2008 at 3:03 PM
IBD/TIPP has Obama by 2.8 .
saint on October 28, 2008 at 3:04 PM
Would you say there is any chance that more younger jewish kids would lean republican than older jews? Or are we a lost cause to both demographics
In your opinion why hasn’t the string of Jew haters Obama has associated with rung a bell with your faimly ? do they know about it or just don’t care?
Joe liebarman had no effect it sounds like
kangjie on October 28, 2008 at 3:04 PM
Carpetbaggers — just like northern Virginia and New Hampshire. Liberals who move to conservative states because they’re tired of crime and high taxes, and then, too stupid to connect the dots, they vote for the same policies in their new states that got them the crime and taxes.
rightwingprof on October 28, 2008 at 3:06 PM
Yes, the National Republican Trust PAC ad is great. I hope it goes viral.
If you have any $$ left do consider donating to them. They’re doing great work.
Rosmerta on October 28, 2008 at 3:06 PM
>>You make the accusation, you back it up…
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 2:36 PM>>
There is a way that it could be done. If I understand correctly, records can be used to investigate a crime.
If the AG of Illinois accused Barack Obama of perjury for signing a statement that he was eligible to run for the Senate, then LE would have authority to check his personal documents. Of course, they would have to use something like the Indonesian school records as their evidence to file the charges.
Actually, Obama could be charged with document tampering for posting a forged official document, couldn’t he? Wouldnt’ the Hawaii AG be have access to the actual documents so as to know a crime was committed – and also be responsible to press charges?
justincase on October 28, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Or, as my grandmother would do, “ptoo, ptoo, ptoo”.
I hear you. My family is a bit of an anomaly – all McCain supporters. Even my sister, who had been so wrapped up in the abortion debate, to the exclusion of almost anything else, that she could have never thought of voting for a Republican, is now for McCain. She doesn’t even talk about abortion, anymore. I figure that she is representative of a not-insignificant group. I hope, at least.
JINO’s!
Yep. It is upon us. It’s time for people to decide what the structure of the future, in the large, should be.
progressoverpeace on October 28, 2008 at 3:12 PM
Wow. That is so great. Seriously.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 3:12 PM
state-by-state polls, my friends…state-by-state polls.
Who gives a steaming carlester crumpler what the national numbers are right now…the real battle is being fought out in the individual states and it is those polls that mean something.
Sadly, what they mean and what they are pointing to is a near landslide for He Whose Name May Never Be Uttered Except in Messianic Reverence, for He Shall Heal the World
Mike D. on October 28, 2008 at 3:12 PM
Re “the Catholic vote” — there really hasn’t been a Catholic voting bloc since Kennedy (see excerpt below).
Having said that, Pope Benedict has clearly been leaning on Catholic bishops to stop preaching “social justice” from the pulpit to the exclusion of guiding their flocks correctly on life issues, particularly abortion. Having grown up in a very liberal parish with priests making anti-war and pro-migrant worker speeches from the pulpit (while failing to instruct parishioners on Church teachings), I can tell you that this is a great sign… perhaps the vote will swing to McCain this year.
Y-not on October 28, 2008 at 3:13 PM
L’Chaim.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Thanks for the link.
Since the McCain campaign won’t get the message out, we’ve got to help the 529’s that will.
BacaDog on October 28, 2008 at 3:14 PM
Honestly, I’m not sure I’m that authoritative on your questions. My sense is that the Jewish community in America is going in two very different direction. One part is returning to religion after being raised in largely secular households, and the other is barely aware they’re Jewish. I would suspect that that means Republicans will get more of the Jewish vote, as religious Jews tend to be conservative.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 3:16 PM
C’mon, McCain. It’s never too late to grow a pair. Kick that big-eared goblin’s a$$ up and down Pennsylvania Avenue…with Sarah’s permission, of course.
SKYFOX on October 28, 2008 at 3:18 PM
The proof is in the pudding. I am not convinced we can take much more than gross trends from polls right now. There’s this nagging “fudge factor” that we cannot quantify arising from:
lying PUMAs;
sampling biases;
undecideds;
intimidation factor; and
“Bradley effect”
I think most of these factors mean there is a hidden population of McCain supporters whose effect will be felt on/after election day. I mean, can anyone say they know someone who is afraid to express a pro-Obama opinion? Yet we all know someone — or are someone — who is reluctant to express a pro-McCain opinion because of fear of reprisal (ranging from “unpleasantness” to vandalism) in their neighborhood or negative impacts at their jobs.
Y-not on October 28, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Late to this thread, but I just wanted to say I think the 1/2 hour infomercial will be perceived similarly to his Berlin speech – over the top and ultimately a turnoff to any voters still undecided. Who likes infomercials? If you are in a swing state and haven’t already been persuaded by Zero’s 3 ads for every 1 ad from McCain, then a half-hour-long Zero-flavored delay of Game 6 of the World Series is not going to do it for you.
This ad is going to be a big bust – it may even hurt Obama. So for those reasons I’m glad McCain isn’t planning anything similar.
Missy on October 28, 2008 at 3:24 PM
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 2:54 PM
If they’re cultural Jews only it probably won’t make any difference, but it might help if they knew that the archaeological remains from Molech worship included the charred remains of fetuses and infants. And the LORD says in Leviticus 20:4
“If the people of the community close their eyes when that man gives one of his children to Molech and they fail to put him to death, I will set my face against that man and his family and will cut off from their people both him and all who follow him in prostituting themselves to Molech.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Support of abortion and infanticide means that the LORD Himself cuts that person off from His community – regardless of who in the community looks the other way at his/her “personal choice”. I know some Jews think that G-d will never give up on them. But He has told them otherwise, and they refuse to repent at their own peril.
But probably the most powerful Jew in the world today is George Soros – who says he used to be uncomfortable with the idea of being G-d but has gotten used to it since he’s been living out the part. He’s afraid we’ll win the war on terror because then America will prosper – and he says that American capitalism is the biggest threat to a good world. He has also said that he owns the democratic party; he bought and paid for it, it’s his. He also says that nobody who openly shares his goals could ever get elected; they ave to be snuck in by deceiving the public – which the media is prepared to do.
It’s sad.
justincase on October 28, 2008 at 3:24 PM
Are you kidding? She’d want to play too, they’d have to take turns.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 28, 2008 at 3:24 PM
Yep, even SNL credited it to him. ;)
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 28, 2008 at 3:26 PM
Look. I can’t, and don’t want to argue theology with you. Jewish belief, I think, in general, on the question of abortion, says that it is ok to ensure the health of the mother, and that there is this idea of “quickening”–like after the first month or so, but that abortion is unacceptable as birth control. It seems to me that many modern secular Jews, like most Americans, support some abortion rights. Personally, I have a problem with that.
Soros is a piece of crap. Don’t pin his crappiness on being Jewish. He isn’t a “jewish leader.” I don’t know if he claims to be an observant Jew. I doubt it,and pray not.
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 3:35 PM
This ‘ll widen the gap.
Entelechy on October 28, 2008 at 3:38 PM
Wow!
Judge rules Ohio homeless voters may list park benches as addresses
It’s getting harder and harder to tell comedy from news, these days. I just can’t believe this stuff.
progressoverpeace on October 28, 2008 at 3:42 PM
‘Seems like that would mostly affect “blue” (urban) areas, not the suburbs that matter.
Y-not on October 28, 2008 at 3:43 PM
consider the fradulant votes. How many are there?
allrsn on October 28, 2008 at 3:46 PM
143 “Johnny Bench” votes just cast in Cincinnati.
marklmail on October 28, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Meh. McCain will win the election. End of discussion.
ManlyRash on October 28, 2008 at 4:17 PM
They’re telling you they forgot to cover that they voted for Obama.
:O
Kai on October 28, 2008 at 4:18 PM
I am on a one man mission to dispel the “Bradley effect” rumor.
I lived in Ca, and near L.A. when he ran for Gov. The only Bradley effect was as the election got closer (like now) the people began to see and worry about his extreme liberal agenda and relationships. The “colored” part of the “Bradley effect” was basically non-existent. His base was inner city L.A. and San Fran., and little else. The poles were trumped up like the have been in this election.
The Dems and LAT and the Chronicle started this theory to mask the disgust people have with the liberal agenda. When shown in the light (like it is now) it repulses all but the most liberal.
Dump the “Bradley effect”, it was made up so people will feel guilty…Mayor Bradley was an extreme liberal (not as liberal as Obama) and was rejected for that.
If Thomas Sowell was younger and running for President, the conservatives would trample each other to get to the poles first to vote for him.
right2bright on October 28, 2008 at 4:21 PM
But think of the legal ramifications of the decision. It can be used as precedent.
progressoverpeace on October 28, 2008 at 4:24 PM
Over at strata-sphere yesterday I saw a burb about 210,000 people voting early in California at that point, and McCain was only 1000 behind.
How does that jive with the Democrats supposedly having a huge margin?
Terrye on October 28, 2008 at 4:25 PM
joepub on October 28, 2008 at 4:26 PM
MikeD:
The problem with the state polls is that they are done less often, usually use smaller sample sizes and are prone to even larger swings than than the national polls.
Terrye on October 28, 2008 at 4:28 PM
I simply don’t know. It seems that McCain is not so far behind as some people would like the voters to think.
clemycali on October 28, 2008 at 4:30 PM
It doesn’t. They don’t.
ManlyRash on October 28, 2008 at 4:38 PM
In reality, he is substantially ahead. In the bizarroworld of the Obamamedia he is 10 points behind.
ManlyRash on October 28, 2008 at 4:40 PM
Nope.
I still refuse to hope. Quit trying to give me hope. My heart can’t take it.
Plus, I’ve got all this ammunition and alcohol stock-piled. And I already started the drinking. So quit teasing.
Professor Blather on October 28, 2008 at 4:42 PM
That is the wrong atitude. When we give up hope Obama wins. We need to hope, we need to pray, we need to vote.
clemycali on October 28, 2008 at 4:44 PM
JiangxiDad on October 28, 2008 at 3:35 PM>>
I doubt that Soros is an observant Jew. He got his beginning posing as a non-Jew and then repossessing the property of Jews who were being persecuted. Steve Kroft asked him if he has any guilt from that and he said no.
I just don’t understand why he would be seen as anything but a traitor to his fellow Jews. That the guy who threw Jews out of their homes for the Nazis is trying to take over the democratic party should set off a few alarms. Especially given the Khalidi connection and the endorsement of Iran and Hamas. I don’t understand why it doesn’t.
But then he doesn’t get a lot of reporting on what he actually does, so probably people don’t know about it either.
justincase on October 28, 2008 at 5:00 PM
You’re farked. McCain’s gonna win.
ManlyRash on October 28, 2008 at 5:02 PM
Unfortunately, I think the hypocrisy of both the Jews and the Catholics is indicative of how simple minded much of America has become. The Jews aren’t relating to Israel and the Catholics aren’t associating Obama’s infanticide history to their supposed beliefs. I’ve been astounded at the shallow logic Obama supporters have given; A lot of these people are single issue voters! Teachers who believe he will greatly increase funding, Pro choice proponants who are certain the first thing McCain will do is reverse Roe V wade, and the ultimate single issue is “He can’t be any worse than Bush” (Oh yeah, I have to restrain myself at that one) So I am very pessimisstic that the Jews and Catholics can be counted on to do the traditional, right thing.
anniekc on October 28, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Manly Rash…how do you factor in cheating & bogus votes for bambi….just curious.
Rosmerta, this will go down as legend.
lobosan5 on October 28, 2008 at 5:21 PM
I don’t. Nothing is factored or calculated. I simply know that McCain will win. Can’t tell you anything more than that. Sorry.
ManlyRash on October 28, 2008 at 5:24 PM
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!
The unscientific approach…probably has something to do w/ being a lesbian in a man’s body…..far & away the soundest grounding & I feel much better now….thank you for answering.
lobosan5 on October 28, 2008 at 5:37 PM
I hope you are right and I’ll add adapting an old romanian saying:I hope God is listening to you.:))
clemycali on October 28, 2008 at 5:47 PM
He is.
ManlyRash on October 28, 2008 at 5:59 PM
clemycali, we @ the farm are praying as if this country’s future depended on it. I have to believe God’s ears are being stormed by the petitions of the faithful, & esp.by all special needs Americans…the real silent majority.
Gorgeous pic of Jonny Mac w/ the Mother of Our Lord, & prayers if you are interested. http://weatheroutpost12.com/blogs/?page_id=172
lobosan5 on October 28, 2008 at 6:15 PM
I read somewhere that Ronald Reagan – not a Catholic – nevertheless had a special place in his heart for the Blessed Virgin of Fatima. Not sure if it’s true, but I could believe it, given his extraordinary relationship with Pope John Paul the Great.
ManlyRash on October 28, 2008 at 6:53 PM
REMEMBER PHELPS IN THE 100 M BUTTERFLY FINAL. COMING FROM BEHIND AND WINNING BY 0.01 OF A SECOND.
When I am down I take my antacid and play that race over and over in my head.
This is no time for analysis. This week is all guts and Faith.
Go out, talk to an undecided, and get one more vote for the right camp!
Ropera on October 28, 2008 at 7:55 PM
Maybe those who watch it will mistake it for his acceptance speech and think they missed the election.
xblade on October 29, 2008 at 2:11 AM
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