Open thread: Wall Street
posted at 9:08 am on October 24, 2008 by Allahpundit
The market hasn’t opened yet and already it’s the story of the day. Here’s your thread for pep talks, survivalist tips, and all points in between. There’s little doubt the Dow will break through 8,000; the real question is whether we’ll reach the magic number for trading to be halted. These Friday financial death threads sure are fun, huh?
Nouriel Roubini, who predicted both a recession and a financial meltdown earlier this year, expects markets may soon have to be closed for a week or more to prevent a run on hedge funds. Exit question: Where’s the bottom?
Update: One way to ease the panic: More women traders!
Blowback
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I loled. It reminds me of a joke I told about the CERN reactor. I could already see the NYT headline: “Mini Black Holes Devour Earth, Women and Minorities Hardest Hit”
Micheal on October 24, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Ok I thought women were more the emotional wretchs who can’t handle situations. Interesting article Allah.
Watched the start of the Opening… interesting to watch.
upinak on October 24, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Another factor — IMO, and I’m no expert — is that who/whatever is manipulating the market is sending a message to Paulson and the loons in DC: we want more money.
Now that the floodgates have opened, and it’s clear SecTreas is more than willing to bail out his old pals on the Street and in banking, everyone wants to get (more than) their share.
The $700 billion is just a down payment, baby.
MrScribbler on October 24, 2008 at 11:24 AM
[Oil’s down to $63 bucks…..yah—hooo!
Rovin on October 24, 2008]
Well I like cheap gas as much as the next guy, but in my line of work it is tantamount to being a mortgage broker when the housing market crashed.
[Allah, you are 1 positive fella, ya know that?
TheHat on October 24, 2008]
There is nothing to be positive about! The crisis we face would not be a reason to be a pessimistic if there was hope. At this moment everything looks bleak with no hope whatsoever. Believe me, I’ve been looking.
For the first time EVER I have contemplated stocking up and cashing out….i.e. going survivalist.
Goodeye_Closed on October 24, 2008 at 11:25 AM
I spread it…because it’s fact. Straight from the returns that I downloaded from his Website. Here’s the Obama’s AGI and investment income for 2000 through 2007.
2000—$240,505 (tax int—$38; divs—$0)
2001—$272,759 (tax int—$0; divs—$0)
2002—$259,394 (tax int—$34; divs—$0)
2003—$238,327 (tax int—$0; divs—$0)
2004—$207,647 (tax int—$0; divs—$0)
2005—$1,655,106 (tax int—$13,385; divs—$2,754)
2006—$983,826 (tax int—$4,590; divs—$1,188)
2007—$4,139,965 (tax int—$1,442; tax-ex int—$45,851; divs—$0)
He and his wife are two jokes. I’m not buying the student loan whine either. She was finished with school in 1988, and he was finished in 1991. My students loans had 10-year terms. BO might have had a balance going into the early part of the decade, but she should have been paid off. Besides, simply running your paychecks by direct deposit through an interest-bearing account would get you some amount of interest income.
How does Warren Buffet back this clown?
BuckeyeSam on October 24, 2008 at 11:26 AM
The market is a spoiled toddler right now. Someone needs to send it to the time out corner.
Micheal on October 24, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Hello.
George Soros and Warren Buffet are short selling the market in order to help Hussein Obama win.
After they make a fortune shorting the market…they will buy up the best companies for pennies on the dollar..
SaintOlaf on October 24, 2008 at 11:28 AM
Translation: End of world postponed until Tuesday! ;-0
highhopes on October 24, 2008 at 11:28 AM
No more money. Let the chips fall where they may. I want to know where all this investment money was coming from, what made up the hedge funds. Follow the money, before one more cent of my tax dollars is spent. I have had it up above my eyeballs with these idiots in Congress. They have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that they are not only corrupt, but they don’t have the IQ of a potato.
eaglesdontflock on October 24, 2008 at 11:32 AM
I forgot the derivatives and credit swaps. There are several more shoes to fall.
eaglesdontflock on October 24, 2008 at 11:33 AM
Well, y’know, if they used the more direct construction with the same meaning, it would be: “Better than expected” But they can’t write that because they wouldn’t get to use the negatively-charged words “bad” and “fear” in big, black, boldfaced letters. People might stop running around in circles, panicking and yelling “OMG! We’re all going to die!” long enough to go vote for McCain/Palin. They can’t let that happen!
aero on October 24, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Does anyone see the market actually breaking below 7800? In all the crashes of the past the market tended to retest its lows but didn’t go past them. I think there’s a bit of an artificial bottom put in where investors say “wow, we’re really close to that first low, I guess it’s time to buy”. I suppose it’s possible that things are so bad that the playbook is out the window, though.
BadgerHawk on October 24, 2008 at 11:35 AM
I had 1/2 of the deer(My son shot it, his first!)made into sausage and 1/2 ground into hamburger and the backstraps and underloins packaged whole. Next deer (leaving for camp in mere hours) will be a traditional cut and some cube steaks.
Deer sausage and pancakes FTW! with Biscuits and gravy made with deer sausage as a close 2nd
quax1 on October 24, 2008 at 11:36 AM
My mentor is calling for the market to go down to 7000 – 7400. He says that will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. I’ll be grabbing lots of cheap stock option trades then.
rigdown on October 24, 2008 at 11:37 AM
I just checked, and 4 of my 8 recent purchases are up on the day. 6 of the 8 are still down from where I bought them, though.
BadgerHawk on October 24, 2008 at 11:38 AM
I woke up too late and missed armaggedon.
Again! :(
Some people are such wall street babies. Don’t watch if you can’t stomach ups and downs. Geesh.
lorien1973 on October 24, 2008 at 11:41 AM
Gas in N Texas has gone from $3.77 to $2.40 in the last two and a half weeks. Does this mean all those ‘evil’ speculators threw themseleves out the 20th floor window and nobody noticed? Why isn’t team Barry being asked how much of his budget just went out the window with them and how he is going to make it up?
Limerick on October 24, 2008 at 11:42 AM
Good morning lorien!!! Up bright and early at the crack or 11:30!
BadgerHawk on October 24, 2008 at 11:47 AM
Bingo!
highhopes on October 24, 2008 at 11:50 AM
[People might stop running around in circles, panicking and yelling “OMG! We’re all going to die!” long enough to go vote for McCain/Palin. They can’t let that happen!
aero on October 24, 2008 at 11:34 AM]
You know, I’m naturally inclined to believe this is the case (that this is a “fabricted crisis”), but just like the 9/11 conspiracies (which I never even entertained) I don’t think this is a planned attack on our economy. I think it is real and a dramatic result of greed and abuse.
Adding it all up:
The state of our education system where RRR are at third world levels
Manufacturing and production (other than agriculture)have almost completely disappeared realative to our status not too long ago. Our economy seems to be almost completely service based.
Our debt and deficit the way it is and our complete reliance on other countries for energy.
Gridlock and devision in our government which seems to ALWAYS do the wrong thing to fix any of this. I mean bloggers actually have better answers to these problems than the people hired to work on it every waking hour.
The biggest prison population in the world/murder rate higher than the death toll for most war zones including Iraq.
The financing of a corrupt Mexican government to where they have effectively outsourced much of their poverty to the US.
I could go on forever…..but we are in BIG TROUBLE.
I told my teenage kids years ago, don’t take for granted your standard of living because I can guarantee things will be different for you when you’re my age. Be prepared
Goodeye_Closed on October 24, 2008 at 11:57 AM
We are in big trouble because everybody wants the benefits of hard work but are unwilling to put in the effort to make it happen. Obama and his socialism look good to a bunch of lazy people because it promises them the stuff it takes a lifetime to attain without any of the heavy lifting.
highhopes on October 24, 2008 at 12:00 PM
The electorate, all of them who can read, need to take note of this article.
Recycle often.
eaglesdontflock on October 24, 2008 at 12:02 PM
:D
I’m actually at work and I’m having problems with my websites so I’m busy working on that. I was up at 10 am. Don’t make me lazier than I already am! :D
lorien1973 on October 24, 2008 at 12:03 PM
highhopes on October 24, 2008 at 12:00 PM
I just want all my tax money and social security money back. I don’t like what they did with it.
eaglesdontflock on October 24, 2008 at 12:04 PM
Which is being touted on the left as American apartheid because of the prison demographics. With Barry judges you can expect the prisons to dump them in your backyard so they can become honest tax paying workers.
Limerick on October 24, 2008 at 12:04 PM
Don’t get me wrong – I think this financial crisis is serious, real, and long-term. But I also think left-leaning writers are prone to using the most negatively-charged rhetoric they can think of – to the point of creating silly contortions of language like “Less bad than feared” – in order to stoke the sense of panic that helps Obama in the polls and hurts McCain. I of course don’t know if the person who wrote that Marketwatch headline is an Obama supporter, but I’d bet all my stock in Microsoft that he/she is.
Fomenting panic with negative rhetoric is not helpful. Positive rhetoric like “Better than expected” would not stop the carnage in the market, but splashing words like “BAD” and “FEAR” everywhere you can seems a deliberate attempt to keep the panic at a fever pitch. If you look at the front page of MarketWatch.com right now, you see words like “bloodbath,” “crushed,” “fall hard,” “bloody Friday,” “plummet,” “specter of death,” and more. I think most people would agree that their word choices are on the verge of hyperbolic in their negative connotations.
aero on October 24, 2008 at 12:08 PM
A man after my own heart.
back on topic.
Anyone have a good site that can show me what the stock market is doing? The ones I try to look at are blocked.
upinak on October 24, 2008 at 12:12 PM
waaaaa waaaaa
Ok enough of the whining. I got up at 430 am… my time.. 830 your all’s time.
upinak on October 24, 2008 at 12:13 PM
Yahoo’s finance page is pretty good for a basic overview.
BadgerHawk on October 24, 2008 at 12:15 PM
TY Badger, I am watching my 401K and Alaska PFD go down the drain. :(
upinak on October 24, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Correct me if I have the date wrong, but isn’t THE ONE supposed to broadcast his half-hour teevee message on the anniversary of the ’29 Crash?
Significant? I think so.
onlineanalyst on October 24, 2008 at 12:33 PM
None of this should be surprising.
The writing was on the wall last summer. The GOP candidate was doomed before the first primary.
But, all you Monty Python fans, it’s time to come together and sing:
“Always look on the bright side of life.”
Obama will preside over the roughest economic period in a generation, and will be able to do bupkis about it.
If the GOP reforms itself, 2012 could flip the Democrats right out of the White House and Congress, a la Radly Balko’s article.
Cheers, and looking forward to 2012,
ODM
olddeadmeat on October 24, 2008 at 12:39 PM
Some interesting news coming out of Wall Street:
NYT about to be downgraded to “Junk”
Propaganda does not pay.
Tacitus_SGL on October 24, 2008 at 12:43 PM
It always has been greed versus fear.
Bush/Paulson/Bernanke have to know they started this overreaction and therefore should get the blame for this temporary market drop. Just make sure the Dems get credit for the recession their credit crisis sparked.
Valiant on October 24, 2008 at 12:50 PM
Now I see your problem. You still think of it as YOUR tax money and social security contribution. I guarantee you that nobody in DC including the two career politicians running for the presidency ever thinks of it as anybody’s money but the government’s and that you should be grateful for whatever they decide to let you have.
highhopes on October 24, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Printing newspaper is a bad industry to be in, though finance, insurance, airlines, and automotive aren’t good ones either.
dedalus on October 24, 2008 at 12:57 PM
I find it… interesting… that the Chairman of the Fed Bank, Bernake, is now an Obama supporter….
Yes, that same Fed bank that failed in its oversight duties for years…
That same Fed Bank which has helped CREATE this crises.
Romeo13 on October 24, 2008 at 1:00 PM
To the contrary, Rupert Murdoch seems to be doing well, but your point is well-taken. There are ups and downs for every industry.
Tacitus_SGL on October 24, 2008 at 1:02 PM
I think News Corp is down about 60% this year, a little more than the NY Times. This is while News Corp’s price has been helped by its very successful MySpace acquisition-perhaps they spin it back out at some point if there is ever an IPO or private equity market again.
dedalus on October 24, 2008 at 1:07 PM
I just thought I’d bring up the fact that OPEC’s production cut in the face of the world entering a major recession is nothing less than an ACT OF WAR against the developed world (and the rest, frankly) and needs to be responded to appropriately.
It was OPEC that pulled that lit this financial fire, to begin with, and their talk that they want oil to settle around $70-90/barrel (which is so much higher than oil has been and are price levels that suck the life out of the world’s economy) is absolutely ridiculous and should be accepted by no one!
It is time to take the gulf oil fields BACK from the arabs/persians (who stole them in the nationalization waves of the 60′s) who are using them for nothing other than hurting us and our economy. War is war and people should recognize when we are being attacked. The gulf countries are perfectly happy to drive the whole world slide into depression as part of their war on progress. This must be answered, and answered correctly.
progressoverpeace on October 24, 2008 at 1:08 PM
Isn’t John Edwards involved in this hedgefund mess?
Texyank on October 24, 2008 at 1:08 PM
I will repeat myself:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agLzc.Orwfc4&refer=home
News Corp is doing very well. Q4 profits up 27% from a year ago. Stock price isn’t an indicator of performance, only perceived value, which is affected by any number of things. News Corp: profitable, NYT: unprofitable. News Corp: going well, NYT: not going well.
Tacitus_SGL on October 24, 2008 at 1:24 PM
And specifically regarding News Corp’s performance on its papers:
Tacitus_SGL on October 24, 2008 at 1:26 PM
The stock prices are forward looking and take into account reported earnings. News Corp is down about 60% this year, much of that since Aug 5 which is the date of the Bloomberg article.
Maybe Murdoch buys Yahoo. That would be interesting. MSFT had offered about $30/share a few months ago. I see it is at $11/share now.
dedalus on October 24, 2008 at 1:55 PM
[OPEC’s production cut in the face of the world entering a major recession is nothing less than an ACT OF WAR against the developed world (and the rest, frankly) and needs to be responded to appropriately.
progressoverpeace on October 24, 2008]
So what should we do…or can we do? Progress, I so much agree with you and am angry just like you. We put up with WAY too much crap from the creeps of the world.
The problem….America, with our “perfect storm” of financial downturn and two major wars going on (plus supplying arms to 1/2 of the world), we are virtually defensless right now! Please understand that I have been an unflappable optimist when it comes to the US and our abilities for a long time, but NOW I am facing reality.
The truth hurts….and boy do I know it.
When countries like Iran and Venezula can put us in their shadow and Russia can jump from upstart to EVEN with the US, we have problems.
The only hope we have is for WE THE PEOPLE to rise up, take over, and present the world with a take no prisoners attitude.
“Want some of this….come and get it”
Goodeye_Closed on October 24, 2008 at 2:31 PM
We can take some solace from OPEC not being much of a cartel. It doesn’t seem very reliable to have Venezuala, Russia, Iran etc. as teammates. They are likely to cheat each other where they can.
OPEC increased oil production a little when the price was at $130 and it continued to go up. Now it is cratering toward $60 and went lower after their announcement.
Below $50 the OPEC members are going to start hurting because you’ll have some supply destruction since it costs a certain amout to pump it out and transport it to the customer. One real political story will be Chavez who funds all of his social giveaways from oil revenue. He may have some real problems if oil goes much lower and the world economies stay in recession for a year or two.
dedalus on October 24, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Yep. And the only solution will be to retake the gulf fields from the arabs/persians. People can call it “internationalization” (as opposed to the earlier “nationalization”) if they want to feel good, but the fields will have to be retaken, eventually. We should have started this on 9/12, but … that’s how it goes. The oil fields represent the meeting point of many of today’s destructive forces, providing the arabs/persians with not only the financial and political muscle that endangers us all, but also with the security of the fields, themselves. Saddam Hussein showed the world in 1991 how much the arabs really care about the oil – they’d destroy it all themselves just to hurt us. The persians showed the same during the Iran/Iraq war. For many different reasons, control of the gulf oil fields must be taken back from the arabs/persians.
Oil was below $50/barrel for the great bulk of history and has no reason being that high. The $50 mark was not hit until the Iraq war started. Before that, oil at $35/barrel was more than enough to enrich the oil countries.
progressoverpeace on October 24, 2008 at 3:15 PM
Greenspan wasted away
* by Rob Peebles
* October 03, 2008
Sung to the tune of Margaritaville, with apologies to Jimmy Buffett (With extra verses because so many are needed)
Greenspan wasted away
Staring at cheese cake
Gotta a new speech to make
All of those bankers covered in sweat.
Shuffling my note cards
Responding to blowhards
Tellin’ them, “Really, I have no regrets.”
Wishin’ today for a bail out bill.
No more banks hurtling toward default.
Some people claim homeowners must be to blame
All I know…
This thing ain’t my fault.
The hedge funds got leveraged
While I sipped my beverage.
They bought tons of stuff no one understands.
But it was their duty
To rake in the booty
They bought Hamptons mansions, torpedoes be damned
Wishin’ today for a bail out bill.
No more banks hurtling toward default.
Some people claim Congress must be to blame
But I know
It’s still not my fault.
Those swaps were all hidden
From my field of vision.
My buddy Phil Gramm said it was all cool.
Regulation was evil
So his bill made them legal.
Now buyers and sellers are feeling like fools.
Wishin’ today for a bail out bill.
No more banks hurtling toward default.
Some people claim realtors must be to blame,
But I know,
No way it’s my fault.
Mortgage brokers went crazy.
Appraisers got lazy.
Homes “created wealth” and things were just fine
But it really was funny.
They’d loan you the money.
If you picked up a pen and were able to sign.
Wishin’ today for a bail out bill.
No more banks hurtling toward default.
Some people claim Fannie must be to blame
But I know,
This can’t be my fault
Now Fannie and Freddie
Lobbied hard, lobbied steady.
Executives knew how to play all their cards.
Then company earnings
Crashed and went burning.
They took none of the risk and kept the rewards.
Wishin’ today for a bail out bill.
No more banks hurtling toward default.
Some people claim to blame
Now I know,
No way it’s my fault.
Before telecom busted
Back when “in dotcom we trusted”
It took me by surprise when that bubble burst.
But I took some action
I cut rates to a fraction
Who knew the next bubble that burst would be worse?
Wishin’ today for a bail out bill.
No more banks hurtling toward default.
Some people claim it was me that’s to blame
Now I know,
It’s Bernanke’s fault.
MB4 on October 24, 2008 at 3:37 PM
I’m gonna take a chance and invest in the DOW.
Kini on October 24, 2008 at 3:48 PM
I was buying as fast as I could this morning and — portfolio is up over 1.5% today. Now tomorrow is another thing.
huckleberryfriend on October 24, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Tomorrow is Saturday.
Anyone notice the funny business at the close today?
MB4 on October 24, 2008 at 3:37 PM
Awesome.
eaglesdontflock on October 24, 2008 at 4:40 PM
Won’t happen with an Obama Presidency. Perhaps not even with McCain.
God I miss Romney. If only…..
eaglesdontflock on October 24, 2008 at 4:43 PM
The price of oil won’t have much to do with what it takes to enrich the oil countries. Some of them already have obscene wealth. The price will be driven by global demand, especially by growth in India and China. Right now the price looks to drop down to extraction cost due to the global economy grinding to a slowdown.
dedalus on October 24, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Like I said last Friday, it is necessary for the international and national leftists to make sure the market closes down every Friday to keep the bad feelings going over the weekend. At least until the election is over.
Connie on October 24, 2008 at 4:55 PM
Not when there’s an illegal cartel setting the supply.
Meh. The stories of China and India sucking up all the oil (driving up the price) are untrue. The price initially moved on the start of the Iraq War and then made another rapid move up on issues other than demand (since the price trajectory was independent of any demand changes).
Due to economic slowdown, but extraction/transportation costs have little to do with oil that comes out of the gulf. And the price would be supported by extraction cost (reserves disappearing at too low an oil price) as happened back in the old oil-loan debacle of the 80′s.
At least, that’s been my perspective on it.
progressoverpeace on October 24, 2008 at 5:45 PM
This whole scenario have been a revenge set up. With a lot of different players with different scores to settle. The US is like Gulliver taking arrows from the Lilliputians. Enough of them stick, Gulliver goes down.
Don’t kid yourselves that this is about supply and demand, or greed and corruption. It’s about revenge and an election.
eaglesdontflock on October 24, 2008 at 6:26 PM
Sorry. I misread your comment, above. My mistake. I don’t know if we’ll get down to extraction (not until Iran is taken care of) but I agree with the rest.
progressoverpeace on October 24, 2008 at 10:14 PM
People People People
Now is a great time for the little man. Buy when the markets down.
The big investors have lost their money now is the time for the little man to get some of it and not by mooching from the Goverment.
The moochers want to dig deeper in your pockets with “O” Dumbo The One.
Rick007 on October 25, 2008 at 11:37 AM
Get oil prices down!!!!!
Drill here Drill now. Break the Russians and the cartel.
Keep the 700 billion in this country.
Jobs wages and prospeity are ours for the taking.
Get rid of the Socialists Democrats in Congress.
B Frank eats hotdogs. he also has to wear depends. LOL
Rick007 on October 25, 2008 at 11:41 AM
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