There are some significant differences between Iraq and Pakistan on this issue, though.

That’s an understatement. I think there are many Pashtuns who hate the Taleban but the days of unruly frontiers for nations need to come to an end. Time to roll out the modern world to these regions and it is up to the Pakistani nation to do that. Anyone else attempting this will be a setback to that goal. This does not mean that the US should not continue targeted killings of known terrorists or their camps but civilian deaths make the goal harder to achieve.

Can Pakistan do this alone, I doubt it. With our air power, Pakistani helicopter borne forces and limiting actions to small areas until you slowly grow the security areas, this approach may work; but it will take a lot of time. Will we be patient?

The US made sure the NA went first on everything. So many of our special forces had to sit on the sidelines in the name of a “unified” front. That’s how we lost the war in 2001 and let bin ladin and his minions escape.

Another delusion of yours: Pakistan is going to control Warizistan and the tribal areas. They couldn’t do it in the past, they aren’t going to do it now, and the sending of a couple of copied 1950s soviet rifles sure as hell won’t change a thing.
Pakistan is in the pocket of violent islamicists, and has a nuclear bomb. Stop deluding yourself that they are an ally.

A similar strategy worked for us in 2001 with the Northern Alliance.

While it’s true the Northern Alliance helped us in Afghanistan in 2001, I still seeth over the fact the Northern Alliance struck a deal with OBL/AQ and let them slip out the back door into the Pakistan tribal regions when we had them over a barrel in Tora Bora!

I will never forget this and neither should our military commanders and political leaders!

I like this move by Pakistan, for the short term anyway.

As AQI continues to be decimated, its cause shown again and again to be hopelessly lost, then we may see more and more Jihadi-wannabes heeding the call to flock to the Af-Pak theater rather than Iraq. Naturally, this would be a boon to the Iraqi people, who would finally have the breathing space to grow their economy and solidify their government. This in turn could very well create the conditions for a more rapid redeployment of US troops to pursue other missions.

At the same time, though, the relatively massive influx of foreign fighters who would suddenly rush to support the Taliban/AQ axis could help to create the conditions for the COIN operations which could defeat them. The tribes of the rugged lands bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan are a fiercely independent and notoriously xenophobic lot. If recent history is any indication, these newly-arrived Jihadis will, in fairly short order, conduct themselves in as abominable a manner as they have wherever they have planted their blighted feet. I cannot imagine that, over time, this will sit well with the indigenous tribes. More Lashkars may form, which could over time become a more organized (and well-armed) set of “friendly” militias, given the presence of a more well-manned, concerted force, ably directed by Gen. Petraeus from his new perch atop CENTCOM.

I know, “I’m smelling a lot of ‘if’ coming off this plan.” Much depends on the predominantly Arab foreigners streaming into the Tribal lands conducting themselves in a sufficiently horrid way as to override the powerful hospitality mores and traditional respect for Arabs (as the progenitors of Islam) which prevail in the region. But it strikes me as a plausible scenario, if the situation is as adroitly read and exploited as our pre-eminent warrior-scholar was able to do in the Land of the Two Rivers.

Cavemen with modern weapons.

Bishop on October 23, 2008 at 10:54 AM

…a very nifty idea from the comfort of a swivel chair, but a very scary thing on the ground….

…hard to manage, this arming tribesmen to kill off other tribesmen….

…the old saw about “He may be a son-of-a-bitch, but he’s our son-of-a-bitch” grows thin and wrinkly, and gets both embarrasing and costly unless you’ve got someone with the morals of a car thief and the smarts of an ace pimp to keep an eye on things…I’m not sure we’ve got that anymore….

…and I’m certain that Mr. Obama’s not going to bring anyone or any ones of that caliber into the fight…his background would suggest that he’s of the Clinton mold, which states that lawyers can protect us from the nasty man, should he rear his ugly head (or head his ugly rear)….

…it’s a bad business. Ho Chi Minh was somebody’s proxy at one point….

America’s just not as good at guerilla war as it thinks that it is…remember Mr. Stinson’s idiotic pronouncement that gentlemen don’t read eachother’s mail….

…every time we mount an unconventional op, some conventional bozo — in uniform or some suit somewhere — wants ‘em to shave their beards, start wearing uniforms, and bristles at the sloppy paperwork….

Still, if it’s handled even half-assed well, it’s better to have bad guys killing bad guys.

General Crook learned in the 1880′s that it takes an Apache to catch and Apache. General Nelson Miles — the ultimate ring-knocking conventional military type and a throughgoing self-promoting moron — replaced Crook, threw out his successful methods, and went after Apaches with loads of troops, communicating using heliographs and equipped with latest gear…and stumbled back into garrison torn up by the terrain and whipped. One quarter of the standing US Army was chasing, effectively, about 35 warriors with about 70 dependents, oldsters, and kids.

In the end, we need to manage this thing…or enable it in such a way that we have some oversight.

It always sounds like a nifty idea, but unconventional warfare is about as hard to manage as shovelling sand…with a pitchfork.

Heck I am not awake as of yet, and Pakistany people have been up for hours.

upinak on October 23, 2008 at 11:15 AM

I’m not sure about the time zones, but I think the people of Pakistan may have been asleep for several hours by the time you got up.

The Awakening wouldn’t have worked without the Surge and vice versa. Too bad That One doesn’t believe in surges. Oh wait, he’s all for a surge in the Hindu Kush? Oh, OK.

Kafir on October 23, 2008 at 11:21 AM

Doesn’t quite work both ways: X would not have happened at all without the declaration of Y, but Y would only have been less effective without X.

It gets easier to put in a “dominating military presence” if you have gotten both sides to kill each other off before hand.

MarkTheGreat on October 23, 2008 at 10:42 AM

True, but I’m not sure where the results on that fall when one injects military hardware into the equation.
But, perhaps…

upinak on October 23, 2008 at 11:28 AM

You have mail.

Pakistan, the Land of the Pure, was partitioned from India to allow the noble Muhammadans freedom from the kaffir Hindus to grow an Islamic paradise. The “inferior to Muslim” Hindus have just sent a rocket to survey the moon. The creatures of wonder have just bought Chinese rifles to arm their hillbilly headchoppers. The same people, two different beliefs. It is what Islam does to people.

That’s the bright thing in the sky that you see for a couple of hours each year during the summer.

MarkTheGreat on October 23, 2008 at 11:27 AM

Oh that is BOB… Big Orange Ball.

Whats sunshine?

upinak on October 23, 2008 at 11:23 AM

That’s the bright thing in the sky that you see for a couple of hours each year during the summer.

ManlyRash on October 23, 2008 at 11:22 AM

Whats sunshine?

upinak on October 23, 2008 at 11:15 AM

Mornin’ sunshine!

This is nothing like the dynamic that existed in Anbar with the Sunni Awakening. In that case, the militias were slowly drawn closer to the central government and the rule of law. They were utilized as a civilian police force.

In Pakistan, there appears to be no attempt to bring the Lashkars closer in alignment to the rule of law. The government is simply passing out weapons to raise the level of chaos. No wonder Washington is not leaping to help out.