Politico: Pennsylvania is closer than you think

posted at 6:40 pm on October 22, 2008 by Allahpundit

It’s a longshot, but any shot is a shot worth taking now. Reassuring burst of sunlight through the clouds? Or heartbreaking psy op by the demon media aimed at lifting conservatives’ spirits, the better to crush them later? You make the call!

Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal.

“There’s a tendency in Pennsylvania for the polls to change dramatically in the final days,” says John Brabender, a top Republican political consultant based in Pittsburgh. “In the governor’s race in 2002, there were polls just a few days out showing [Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell] with a 25-point lead and he ended up losing 50 of 67 counties and won by nine points.”…

The McCain campaign’s formula for winning the state begins with the notion that, despite voter registration gains and strong support for Obama in Philadelphia, it would be difficult to wring more votes out of the state’s largest city than the Kerry campaign did.

They even believe they can carry a few of the heavily Democratic city’s 66 wards, a feat George W. Bush was unable to accomplish in 2004.

“We’re not convinced they can blow it out again,” said a McCain campaign source.

And in the four populous and historically Republican collar counties surrounding Philadelphia, the campaign believes McCain is a far better fit for the socially moderate suburbs than President Bush.

Normally I’d chalk up Rendell’s “nervousness” to GOTV bluster, but actually calling upon The One to come back to the state and stump seems like a long way to go for that. Expect Hillary to be dispatched forthwith. Exit question: Does McCain have any Clinton-caliber surrogates out on the trail aside from Palin? I look at battleground polls like this and wonder who’s available to rally the troops in North Carolina and Virginia while he and the ‘Cuda are in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but I’m drawing a blank. Newt? Rudy? Zombie Reagan? Bueller?


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Or heartbreaking psy op by the demon media aimed at lifting conservatives’ spirits, the better to crush them later?

You crack me up, Allah.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 6:42 PM

FRED!

SCGOPgirl on October 22, 2008 at 6:42 PM

I would hope so. When you are called a racist and a redneck, (not such a bad thing if you are from Texas), by your congressman, and Obama calls you bitter, clinging to your guns and your religion, and that you are racist because you want the federal immigration laws followed so that you don’t have to fight with an illegal alien for a job…..You better damn believe it will be close in PA. If you still like Obama or Murtha, you need to pull your head out and get some air.

HornetSting on October 22, 2008 at 6:44 PM

Where’s Ridge?

amerpundit on October 22, 2008 at 6:44 PM

These polls are ridiculous. I believe McCain will win Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
I also believe that Obama’s brand is wearing thin. He is full of crap and the MSM’s slobbering will disgust voters.
When the day comes to vote for an experienced veteran who gave over 5 years of his life as a POW and a rookie who has no idea what the hell he is doing, I believe the people will do the right thing.
I pray for McCain, Palin, and our country. I suggest you all do the same.

jencab on October 22, 2008 at 6:46 PM

Rudy would probably be the most help in PA. Does Tom Ridge still have any pull in the state? Maybe pair them up as the homeland security duo.

dedalus on October 22, 2008 at 6:47 PM

If only the rest of the Democrats from Pennsylvania’s districts followed Murtha’s lead and started calling their constituents racist hicks, then we’d really be in for a spectacle in that state.

Tacitus_SGL on October 22, 2008 at 6:47 PM

Newt? Rudy? Zombie Reagan? Bueller?

Sarah! Sarah!

JustTruth101 on October 22, 2008 at 6:47 PM

Rendell nervous…NEVER. He’s just doing some psych warfare here. Rendell would never go public with anything unless he thought it would benefit his candidate…he’s been doing this too long, to well!

jawbone on October 22, 2008 at 6:50 PM

Fred, Jindal, Huckabee! (I can’t beleive I wrote Huckabee either). Rudy would also do well in the South.

Besides when the story of the Messiah’s mistress hits, the corresponding media cover-up will do more to turn undecideds away.

Iblis on October 22, 2008 at 6:50 PM

I look at battleground polls like this and wonder who’s available to rally the troops in North Carolina and Virginia while he and the ‘Cuda are in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but I’m drawing a blank. Newt? Rudy? Zombie Reagan? Bueller?

Ric Flair? It would be hilarious if he showed up at a Joe Biden event…

ninjapirate on October 22, 2008 at 6:50 PM

Where the hell is FRED!?

Vigilante on October 22, 2008 at 6:50 PM

Exit question: Does McCain have any Clinton-caliber surrogates out on the trail aside from Palin? I look at battleground polls like this and wonder who’s available to rally the troops in North Carolina and Virginia while he and the ‘Cuda are in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but I’m drawing a blank. Newt? Rudy? Zombie Reagan? Bueller?

I think Rudy’s been doing great on tv, and his convention speech was terrific, but I’m not sure how he’d play in NC or VA. Fred would probably play better. Steele might be good, too.

Has Jindal done any campaigning for McCain?

Ah-nold is going to be in Columbus, OH, this weekend. I gather from the press reports that he is popular there because of a sports festival he hosts there each year.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 6:51 PM

It would be nice if Batman made an appearance in support of McCain.

frankj on October 22, 2008 at 6:51 PM

Surely Pa. will come around. After all, they are intelligent peop….. Oh wait. They have voted Murtha into office about a hundred times.

Never mind.

Star20 on October 22, 2008 at 6:52 PM

George Allen or Fred Thompson could do the work in Virginia. They need to be talking about Obama’s idiotic plan to raise taxes (including taxes that will slow down business growth and inhibit the creation of new jobs, like capital gains taxes), and his history as a gun-grabber. (Virginians like their guns). In the Appalachian region, it wouldn’t hurt to throw in some facts about Obama’s decades-long history as a member of a racist, black-supremacist, Afro-centric “church.”

AZCoyote on October 22, 2008 at 6:52 PM

Don’t scoff at the idea of Zombie Reagan. In the last 12 months he’s had as many good ideas as Obama and a lot fewer bad ideas.

trubble on October 22, 2008 at 6:53 PM

Has Chuck Norris endorsed? He could scare up a few votes.

dedalus on October 22, 2008 at 6:53 PM

I would think McCain would be going by his own internals.
Though, after hearing Hannity today say that Ed Rendell called to ask to be on his TV show tonight, to tell the world that PA could go to McCain,,, well,, that made no sense. Why would Rendell ask to be on Hannity??

JellyToast on October 22, 2008 at 6:54 PM

Don’t scoff at the idea of Zombie Reagan.

ACORN’s already registered him to vote.

Fortunata on October 22, 2008 at 6:54 PM

I can’t get “The Outer Limits” intro out of my head.

rockhauler on October 22, 2008 at 6:55 PM

When the democrats trashed Joe the Plumber, they sent a message to the working men and women of this country. If you even question our actions, we will destroy you.

volsense on October 22, 2008 at 6:56 PM

Has Chuck Norris endorsed? He could scare up a few votes.

Along those lines… has Angelina Jolie? I don’t think she’s a cert for Obama with those guns and adopted kids.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 6:59 PM

I recall hearing Rudy being inviewed a few days ago where he (Rudy) said that he would be campaigning for McCain/Palin in PA.

Over30 on October 22, 2008 at 7:01 PM

Reassuring burst of sunlight through the clouds? Or heartbreaking psy op by the demon media aimed at lifting conservatives’ spirits, the better to crush them later? You make the call!

I’ll go with heartbreak for $1000, Allah. Much of “Pennsylvania is in play” talk we’re hearing is based on a rumor of a leaked internal poll, and/or expectations of a massive (>10%) “Bradley effect”. I’m sure there’s good reason for Rendell et al. to call for more appearances, but in the end, I’ll predict that Obama carries the state by 6 points (about half his current lead). The data are overwhelmingly in favor of Obama now, to the extent that McCain will have to mount a huge comeback to make it close.

Big S on October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

Expect Hillary to be dispatched forthwith.

She, Bill, and Mr. Rendell will vote for McCain. Anyone who has a brain, from her side, will too, no matter where she/Bill will appear, or what they’ll say.

Entelechy on October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

Bueller? Bueller? Hahaha.

Does Ben Stein only care about making money now? I suppose it has been a while since he’s been in politics, but I have always been glad he’s a (R).

FLcapitalistthug on October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

Chuck Norris supported Huckabee in the primaries, but has come out in support of McCain since the general. I’m not sure Chuck Norris is the right person though. Fred would be better. He explained the taxing businesses better than anyone else has.

Sue on October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

are you starting to find Religion, Allah?

having any Visions of Isiah?

not all polls this season are bad, most polls change, and all polls need Scrutiny and Perspective…..

Janos Hunyadi on October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

Hopefully PA will come around. VA does not look good. NC is a problem because of early voting. I hear that the estimates are that 1/3 of the total votes are going to be early voting. This troughs out the conventional wisdom that says that it is better to peak in the polls just before the election.

neuquenguy on October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

Fred, Jindal, Huckabee! (I can’t beleive I wrote Huckabee either). Iblis on October 22, 2008 at 6:50 PM

I think Huck is pouting. I can’t find anything on him stumping for McCain since he became a Fox media personality. I’ve found signs of him stumping for local candidates.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

Has Chuck Norris endorsed? He could scare up a few votes.

dedalus on October 22, 2008 at 6:53 PM

Chuck endorsed McCain waaaaaay back, shortly after the primaries ended.

Not sure about Jolie.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 7:03 PM

Murtha called his supporters in western Pennsylvania racist rednecks. If they re-elect him, it will be the first time he has been right since being elected to office.

volsense on October 22, 2008 at 7:05 PM

ACORN’s already registered him to vote.

Fortunata on October 22, 2008 at 6:54 PM

Registered? I heard that he’s already voted.

Looking for a surrogate–how ’bout John Kasich?

Especially in Ohio and PA where I suspect they loathe the East Coast elite, I’ve never understood why McCain doesn’t rip Dodd and Frank new a**holes and promise to bring those clowns and other Fannie and Freddie enablers to task for that fiasco. With Obama, that goes down the toilet and only emboldens those turds. I’m convinced McCain blew this significant argument. Most people think he’s incompetent on the economy, and that he had no clue when the spit hit the fan.

BuckeyeSam on October 22, 2008 at 7:07 PM

DailyKos is also worried about an email that came from the Obama PA campaign about internal poll numbers.

Texas Rainmaker on October 22, 2008 at 7:08 PM

She, Bill, and Mr. Rendell will vote for McCain. Anyone who has a brain, from her side, will too, no matter where she/Bill will appear, or what they’ll say.

Entelechy on October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

Agree, if she still has presidential ambitions she cannot afford an Obama win. Either he will be re-elected or will be thrown out of office with the Dems in disgrace and it will be best case scenario 8 years and likely 12 years before she gets the chance again.
A McCain win is also a risk for her because of the specter of Palin after McCain, but it is a more manageable risk.

neuquenguy on October 22, 2008 at 7:08 PM

Does Ben Stein only care about making money now? I suppose it has been a while since he’s been in politics, but I have always been glad he’s a (R).

FLcapitalistthug on October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

Ben’s been a busy fellow. He’s just finished releasing a very interesting and illuminating film, “Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed” – GO SEE IT IF YOU CAN!!

He also released a pro-McCain statement a few weeks back. The lefties bashed him pretty hard for it… nothing out of the ordinary though, and certainly nothing like what they give Palin.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 7:09 PM

I was gonna say Fred! – that’s what I get for leaving Hot Air for a few minutes. How about: plant Lieberman in Pittsburgh and have him go door to door in heavily Jewish Clinton strongholds?

omriceren on October 22, 2008 at 7:10 PM

Good and reasonable questions….Where are Fred, Rudy (I have seen more of him than any), Mitt. He keeps draggin Joe Leiberman around….How bout some Conservatives!

OSUBuciz1 on October 22, 2008 at 7:10 PM

Chuck endorsed McCain waaaaaay back, shortly after the primaries ended.

Not sure about Jolie.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 7:03 PM

Chuck Norris robocalls could be pretty cool.

dedalus on October 22, 2008 at 7:11 PM

Tell them the Dems are talkin about comin’ after their 401k’s (they started that conversation today). That should turn every American to the RED immediately.

Scares the crump out of me !

stenwin77 on October 22, 2008 at 7:11 PM

Who will rally the troops to McCain in PA?

Joe Biden and Jack Murtha! Send those clean-coal plants to China, that’ll play great in the Pittsburgh burbs!

Kasich is also a good idea, and how about Joe the Plumber?

Steve Z on October 22, 2008 at 7:11 PM

The MSM polls are merely liberal fantasies, with results written before the polls are actually taken.

There is no attempt to determine the validity of the poll sample: in fact, it can be shown that most of the polls are deliberately overweighted with Democrats and people unlikely (or ineligible) to vote.

Watch for a Category 5 Hissyfit from the Left when their alternate reality fails to correlate with actual reality. It will get worse when each investigation of fraud results in the left losing by even more votes.

landlines on October 22, 2008 at 7:12 PM

Where’s Ridge?

amerpundit on October 22, 2008 at 6:44 PM

All the talk about the brilliance of picking Palin seems to look fall apart when looking at the electoral map.

If Ridge were running as VP, Penn would be locked up and McCain wouldn’t even need to spend a minute in the state.

foreverright on October 22, 2008 at 7:13 PM

Zombie Reagan for President!

ThePrez on October 22, 2008 at 7:13 PM

Chuck Norris robocalls could be pretty cool.

dedalus on October 22, 2008 at 7:11 PM

I think a few people would be downright terrified if Chuck Norris called them. O_O

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 7:13 PM

She, Bill, and Mr. Rendell will vote for McCain. Anyone who has a brain, from her side, will too, no matter where she/Bill will appear, or what they’ll say.

Entelechy on October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

That’s my thought too. In MHO, the Pumas will vote McCain because Obama trashed their candidate; Clintonians will vote McCain because Obama will trash their Party; Repubs will vote McCain because Obama will trash the United States.

Drunken Angry Clown on October 22, 2008 at 7:14 PM

Still can’t believe that many conservatives talk to pollsters, especially in the age of caller ID and call screening.

Feedie on October 22, 2008 at 7:14 PM

Pa will be decided by Hillary. Gov Randell will get a phone call on NOv 3 from hillary. If Obama has forked over the money hillary will tell him to “GOTV”. If Obama has not paid the money hillary wants Gov Randell will be told to let the voters decide.

Gov Randell is one of hillary’s closest friends. Pa is hillary’s way to have 2012. the memo form Randell is a tell. He would never publish that memo or have it leaked if he didn’t want it to be. A private phone call would have did the same thing. this is political blackmail from Hillary. You thought she was just going to forget about that $20million debt she owes?

unseen on October 22, 2008 at 7:15 PM

A McCain win is also a risk for her because of the specter of Palin after McCain, but it is a more manageable risk.

neuquenguy on October 22, 2008 at 7:08 PM

She can/will easily run against Palin. She can’t ever run against the One, even though he stepped in front of her, not yet experienced and vetted. She’d have loved to have him as her VP. Then, we might have had 12-16 years of the two of them…

Entelechy on October 22, 2008 at 7:18 PM

This is totally off topic, but does anyone know what happened to Glenn Beck’s show? I know, he is going to fox, finally. But, what happened with CNN, other than they are a communist network and don’t like anyone making good sense.

HornetSting on October 22, 2008 at 7:18 PM

If Ridge were running as VP, Penn would be locked up and McCain wouldn’t even need to spend a minute in the state.

So? That is one state. What about the base in all of the other battleground states? They DIDN’T like Ridge at all. McCain would have taken a much greater risk with Ridge, and I suspect much of the fund raising that has happened, wouldn’t!

InTheBellyoftheBeast on October 22, 2008 at 7:19 PM

I don’t see North Carolina, the home of NASCAR … going to Obama. Absolutely refuse to believe that.

HondaV65 on October 22, 2008 at 7:21 PM

All the talk about the brilliance of picking Palin seems to look fall apart when looking at the electoral map.

foreverright on October 22, 2008 at 7:13 PM

McCain had absolutely no chance with the demoralized and indifferent base he had before Palin. No way he can win without a record republican turnout.
VA, FL, NC, OH would not be even close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if several more red states went blue without Palin.

neuquenguy on October 22, 2008 at 7:21 PM

McCain had absolutely no chance with the demoralized and indifferent base he had before Palin. No way he can win without a record republican turnout.
VA, FL, NC, OH would not be even close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if several more red states went blue without Palin.

neuquenguy on October 22, 2008 at 7:21 PM

I agree.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 7:22 PM

Giuliani would probably be a good campaigner for McCain in the Philly ‘burbs. Obama will probably get a big turnout in Philly and possibly Pittsburgh, which needs to be neutralized by McCain winning the Philly suburbs, and winning big in Western PA, rural areas, and the Susquehanna Valley (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton) where Hillary did very well. In the Susquehanna Valley, Sarah or possibly Fred! would be the one to send.

Steve Z on October 22, 2008 at 7:24 PM

McCain should do an ad NOW.

“If you think your 401k is looking anemic from this economic crisis, just wain till

P=ELOSI
O=BAMA
R=EID

get their greedy little hands on it. You know “spread the wealth around” !

The Dems were making plans today to “look into that possibility”… should scare everyone to death.

stenwin77 on October 22, 2008 at 7:24 PM

I don’t see North Carolina, the home of NASCAR … going to Obama. Absolutely refuse to believe that.

HondaV65 on October 22, 2008 at 7:21 PM

I don’t know. More than 1/2 million people have already voted and the word is that it went 2-1 for Obama. And according to local reports the long lines are featuring a very large proportion of African-american which we are told are going almost 100% for Obama. I am not feeling too good about the prospects for my state. I am hoping we pick PA to make up for it.

neuquenguy on October 22, 2008 at 7:25 PM

McCain had absolutely no chance with the demoralized and indifferent base he had before Palin. No way he can win without a record republican turnout.
VA, FL, NC, OH would not be even close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if several more red states went blue without Palin.

neuquenguy on October 22, 2008 at 7:21 PM

I agreed. I don’t think He would have had a chance in PA either if not for Palin.

unseen on October 22, 2008 at 7:25 PM

All the talk about the brilliance of picking Palin seems to look fall apart when looking at the electoral map.

foreverright on October 22, 2008 at 7:13 PM

McCain had absolutely no chance with the demoralized and indifferent base he had before Palin. No way he can win without a record republican turnout.

If this election hinges on turning out the base, you’re right. But if it’s about turning independents into McCain supporters, then this strategy will be seen as a huge failure. Palin is appealing to the base and conservative women, but not to many others. Among independents, polling indicates that her negatives outweigh her positives.

foreverright on October 22, 2008 at 7:26 PM

Reassuring burst of sunlight through the clouds? Or heartbreaking psy op by the demon media aimed at lifting conservatives’ spirits, the better to crush them later?

Not conservatives generally; it is a story planted just to jerk Allah’s chain.

It’s true. There’s a daily MSM conference call where they assign stories like this. Just to jerk Allah’s chain.

Karl on October 22, 2008 at 7:28 PM

I don’t see North Carolina, the home of NASCAR … going to Obama. Absolutely refuse to believe that.

HondaV65 on October 22, 2008 at 7:21 PM

97% of black vote for Obama. Any questions?

HornetSting on October 22, 2008 at 7:29 PM

and wonder who’s available to rally the troops in North Carolina and Virginia while he and the ‘Cuda are in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but I’m drawing a blank.

You needn’t worry about NC, Allah. We’ll come through down here and pull you back from the ledge. I can’t speak for VA, but if McCain wins PA he won’t need VA anyways.

SouthernGent on October 22, 2008 at 7:31 PM

Kasich is also a good idea, and how about Joe the Plumber?

Steve Z on October 22, 2008 at 7:11 PM

Yep. PA and OH were the main reasons why I thought McCain was going to pick Kasich for VP.

McCain will do better in Western PA than Bush did 4 years ago. I’m concerned about other areas though. Lancaster, York, Allentown-Bethlehem and some other good sized towns may be a problem. That’s where he needs to be. He and Joe he plumber.

forest on October 22, 2008 at 7:32 PM

McCain is the best candidate the Republican Party could have in southeastern Pennsylvania. I’m seeing FAR more yard signs, bumper stickers, and phone banking than I did for Bush in 2004. Lots and lots of Republicans here are Catholics and mainline Protestants, and they never liked Bush’s brand of evangelicalism. They see McCain as pulling away from the Religious Right. I moved here in 2004, and I can’t believe how much difference there is here now than there was then. I’ve even seen McCain T-shirts on folks in the mall.

Rudy Giuliani, Arlen Specter, Tom Ridge, and Joe Lieberman have all been campaigning around here for McCain. I do wish McCain would cut some TV ads loaclaized for the Philly market featuring some testimonials from those guys. It could make a big difference.

Don’t forget that Obama drew 35,000 to a rally in downtown Philly the Saturday before the primary; he outspent Hillary 10-1; and he still got his ass kicked by 10 points.

rockmom on October 22, 2008 at 7:33 PM

I think a few people would be downright terrified if Chuck Norris called them. O_O

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 7:13 PM

You need to stop – my sides are aching.

platypus on October 22, 2008 at 7:36 PM

There are some very competitive races against incumbent Dems in the House that may help McCain too. They are driving up Republican turnout. It’s possible that the GOP could pick up 3-4 House seats in PA.

rockmom on October 22, 2008 at 7:36 PM

“I think people are going to be shocked by how well McCain is going to do on the western side and in the center part of the state.”

Of course: racists love McCain…

Tzetzes on October 22, 2008 at 7:37 PM

But if it’s about turning independents into McCain supporters, then this strategy will be seen as a huge failure. Palin is appealing to the base and conservative women, but not to many others.

Not all independents are liberal-leaning. Ted Nugent and Don Imus are both “independents,” irrespective of party registration, and we now know that Toby Keith is becoming an independent in response to the leftward movement of his former party (D).

Among independents, polling indicates that her negatives outweigh her positives.

I think you are relying on polling data too much. People who are opposing Obama are probably disproportionately not responding truthfully to pollsters. We know the PUMAs are lying, we know conservatives are being subjected to intimidation tactics, and true “independents” are either still deciding or leaners… and the McCain leaders are not going to admit it.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 7:38 PM

and the McCain leaders are not going to admit it.

ooops, that’s leaners.

I would never reply to a pollster. I think most of the posters here would not, either.

And don’t forget the older voters and military voters. How many of them respond to polls?

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 7:41 PM

McCain is the best candidate the Republican Party could have in southeastern Pennsylvania. I’m seeing FAR more yard signs, bumper stickers, and phone banking than I did for Bush in 2004. Lots and lots of Republicans here are Catholics and mainline Protestants, and they never liked Bush’s brand of evangelicalism. They see McCain as pulling away from the Religious Right. I moved here in 2004, and I can’t believe how much difference there is here now than there was then. I’ve even seen McCain T-shirts on folks in the mall.

rockmom on October 22, 2008 at 7:33 PM

That’s encouraging!

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 7:43 PM

I am not feeling too good about the prospects for my state. I am hoping we pick PA to make up for it.

If we lose NC, we aren’t winning PA.

xblade on October 22, 2008 at 7:43 PM

Rudy is in PA and OH this week.

I believe he was campaigning with Cindy McCain on Monday in PA

phreshone on October 22, 2008 at 7:45 PM

Or heartbreaking psy op by the demon media aimed at lifting conservatives’ spirits, the better to crush them later?

The McCain schedule is already set.

They are going to in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, October 28th
9:00 AM – Erie, Pennsylvania Rally & News Conference
2:30 PM – Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Rally & News Conference
6:30 PM – Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Rally & News Conference

scrubjay on October 22, 2008 at 7:46 PM

She can/will easily run against Palin. She can’t ever run against the One, even though he stepped in front of her, not yet experienced and vetted. She’d have loved to have him as her VP. Then, we might have had 12-16 years of the two of them… – Entelechy on October 22, 2008 at 7:18 PM

She will run against Palin in 2012 and lose. Palin will serve two terms, perhaps even longer. Dems will not have another shot at the White House until 2020.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 7:52 PM

If we lose NC, we aren’t winning PA. – xblade on October 22, 2008 at 7:43 PM

McCain will win NC.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 7:53 PM

OOPS. I just realized that this is different group.

scrubjay on October 22, 2008 at 7:55 PM

Probably off topic-

I’m not all that bright, but I think this is all alot closer than the polls would indicate. PA, as well as overall. So why are the supposed “conservative” (blech) FOX allstars so “never going to happen” for McCain? Are they being politically correct, do they know more than us, are they closet libs, (Nina, yes) or are they part of that, “I want to be on the side of the winner in the end” I watch my favorite Brit Hume every night and I want to hurl hard objects at his stupid panel; I don’t get the defeatism. Is it really over and we’re all being unrealistic, or what?

anniekc on October 22, 2008 at 7:56 PM

Still can’t believe that many conservatives talk to pollsters, especially in the age of caller ID and call screening.

EXACTLY! With caller ID, I won’t even talk to a person. What makes them think I’ll talk to a polster?

karl9000 on October 22, 2008 at 7:57 PM

anniekc on October 22, 2008 at 7:56 PM

I am frustrated by that also, they never seem to mention the 5-7 polls that show a real tightening…just look at the ones released today…

I think you have hit on something about wanting to be on the winning side. I also think that there is a real change happeing with the “Media-elite republicans” (barnes, noonan, Krauthammer etc) They are blue-blooded elitists who see the party shifting to the everyman…my guess is that they don’t like it and are afriad of Palin and the Wal-Mart republicans…

Its just odd…the one channel where you think they would point out the fact this is winnable has decided to throw in the towel, at least it seems.

BUT WE KNOW BETTER AND WILL NOT GIVE UP!

joepub on October 22, 2008 at 8:03 PM

I have several comments on this one

1. As a current resident of VA I am not AT ALL convinced the polls are right. Just today I did a bumper sticker count – 5 McCain to 2 Obama and that was just the Sam’s parking lot. In addition the local newspaper endorsed McCain on Sunday and I live in the “swing” area of Hampton Roads – so do not yet dismay.
2. During the 2004 election I volunteered (practically lived at) the Northeast PA Victory Center in Scranton. Kerry took the state by a decent but not overwhelming percentage. One advantage he had that Obama does not, is that Northeast PA is filled with white, blue collar, catholics – both young and old. I found through the course of my MANY phone calls that many of these people were leaning towards Kerry – despite the fact that he was opposite their view on key issues like abortion, their primary reasoning being that he was Catholic and they had always voted Democrat. Obama is NOT Catholic, and therefore I believe many of these voters will be less likely to overlook some of the ideological differences. I would venture to say MANY of them pull the lever for McCain on election day.

Govgirl on October 22, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Here’s a plan.
Huck in Lancaster/York.
Todd Palin on the northern tier (State College/Williamsport/Erie/W-B-Scranton) and if he can do it, get Joe the Plumber to join him in the West.
Rudy in the Philly burbs.
Joe Lieberman in Montgomery Co. (large Jewish pop).

either orr on October 22, 2008 at 8:12 PM

I would venture to say MANY of them pull the lever for McCain on election day. – Govgirl on October 22, 2008 at 8:11 PM

And you would be correct, madam.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 8:19 PM

I watch my favorite Brit Hume every night and I want to hurl hard objects at his stupid panel; I don’t get the defeatism. Is it really over and we’re all being unrealistic, or what?

anniekc on October 22, 2008 at 7:56 PM

I am frustrated by that also, they never seem to mention the 5-7 polls that show a real tightening…just look at the ones released today…

joepub on October 22, 2008 at 8:03 PM

Well, I think they are essentially just pundits. Nina, Juan, and Mara are libs, so set them aside for a moment. Mort is a lib-leaner (sometimes a bit conservative, but usually more lib).

Of the conservatives you have a couple of intellectuals — Krauthammer and Kristol, and one who seems more like a straight-up political hack (Barnes). (I don’t mean hack in a bad way, actually, but Barnes is more of a partisan than the other two, imho.)

Krauthammer just doesn’t get the Palin phenomenon… and for some reason has bought into the big lie that Obama is some sort of transformational figure and intellectual giant.

Anyway, these guys (and gals) are paid to talk 5 or 6 days each week, but in the circles they hang around in it’s probably really hard to keep their fingers on the pulse of regular Americans so some of the stuff they say is basically static. Plus, can you imagine how lonely they must be? I was isolated as an academic in the sciences, but they must really be isolated in the circles they travel in.

What’s helped with me is that Brit has stayed true to form. I do detect that he is more irritated by the liberal talking points than he used to be, but fortunately he usually confronts the bullhockey Mort and the others spew.

And, I see signs of life with Cavuto (who is great, imho) and even Greta, although in general I think Fox has gone downhill the past year or two.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 8:23 PM

And, I see signs of life with Cavuto (who is great, imho) and even Greta, although in general I think Fox has gone downhill the past year or two.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 8:23 PM

I definitely agree with you. I will also place Hannity, Fox & Friends (the weekday bunch), and Gutfeld on that last. They really need to replace a lot of people in that network starting with the “All Star Panel”.

jencab on October 22, 2008 at 8:30 PM

What’s helped with me is that Brit has stayed true to form.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 8:23 PM

Brit is probably the best anchorman there is. And I loved it when he locked horns with Juan on Fox News Sunday with the late Tonny Snow. I don’t know if they still do, I haven’t watched FNS (or much TV) in a long time.

neuquenguy on October 22, 2008 at 8:30 PM

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 8:23 PM

Good analysis…I think Cavuto may be the most decent and intellectually honest person on TV…

Palin is no drag on the ticket…would it be closer if McCain picked Pawlenty?

I have no buyer’s remorse with Sarah…just the opposite. Elite’s don’t get her. Plain and simple…I believe most Americans do…if McCain wins, its because of her.

joepub on October 22, 2008 at 8:30 PM

The better to crush us with Allah, I have to prepare for the worst, you know? As a Red Sox and Pats fan, I know miracles can happen and McCain is going to need one.
Although these damn polls could all be some kind of media Jedi mind trick.
Here’s to hoping.

*swills beer*

Geronimo on October 22, 2008 at 8:59 PM

I like the idea of dispatching Todd Palin and Joe the Plumber in all of the blue collar “redneck” counties in PA and OH that McCain needs to win and let them beat the bushes for the legal votes they need to overcome acorn’s damage in the big cities.

We all need to donate to the close congressional races, too. I have been pumping money into the Russell campaign to unseat that pig Murtha. I think it has been a good investment. I also donated to a nearby Michigan race that the DNCC has flooded with lies in ads about the freshman incumbent. I live in a safe R congressional district, so I am trying to target my donations to hold back the Pelosi/Reid/Obama sunami. We all need to dig deep.

karenhasfreedom on October 22, 2008 at 9:13 PM

As for the Foxies and why they come across as defeatists, on a day like today especially they have two things working against them: There’s a tendency in all news agencies on the that “their poll” comes out to treat it as though it’s the definitive statement about the race. There are likely memos more or less to that effect – that horse race items will lead with their poll for the day, and that the polls internals will be treated, if not as gospel, then as the reference point for all other poll discussions.

The bigger factor overall, however, is that journalists are like most people, only more so. They tend to get locked into certain narratives, and it takes big events to shake them.

Krauthammer got locked into skepticism about Palin, and he has also had difficulty getting budged from the idea that Obama has a mesmeric hold on the populace. Hume is locked into the notion that the financial crisis was a devastating blow to the McCain campaign. He likes to say you couldn’t have planned worse news for McCain except maybe by moving the blow-up even closer to the election. I suspect they’d have to be be hit by either a truly major event working against Obama-Biden and/or by major, trusted opinion polls showing McCain-Palin leads. JtP and Biden’s 6-Months-To-Armageddon comment won’t qualify until and unless the the poll leads show up.

CK MacLeod on October 22, 2008 at 9:23 PM

Or heartbreaking psy op by the demon media aimed at lifting conservatives’ spirits, the better to crush them later?

One tequila,
Two tequila,
Three tequila,
Floor!

silverfox on October 22, 2008 at 9:28 PM

Surely Pa. will come around. After all, they are intelligent peop….. Oh wait. They have voted Murtha into office about a hundred times.

Never mind.

Star20 on October 22, 2008 at 6:52 PM

Hey, that’s Johnstown – one congressional district in PA. Don’t judge the rest of PA by one area. Send Sen. McCain, Gov. Palin, Todd Palin, Rudy Giuliani, and other moderates into PA. If there are other surrogates that are known as hunters and pro-gun rights folks – send them too. Send the Democrats for McCain and high profile PUMAs. Let Fred Thompson and some of the other southern folks go to Virginia and North Carolina.

I’m not sure McCain can win PA because it’s become a much bluer state, but he has crossover appeal to independents and Democrats that George W. Bush didn’t. Plus the gun rights issue is a serious one in this state. The first day of deer season is an unofficial state holiday. Obama may or may not do better than Kerry in Phila., but he’s unlikely to do as well in Pittsburgh. Kerry’s second wife, Teresa Heinz-Kerry was still fondly regarded in the Pittsburgh area as the widow of a highly-regarded GOP senator from Pittsburgh. Kerry was soft on gun rights, but he didn’t have the history of anti-gun votes that Obama has.

Jill1066 on October 22, 2008 at 9:31 PM

Russell was just on H&C, and it went well. Alan didn’t even really try to defend Murtha.

forest on October 22, 2008 at 9:39 PM

I don’t see North Carolina, the home of NASCAR … going to Obama. Absolutely refuse to believe that.

HondaV65 on October 22, 2008 at 7:21 PM
I don’t know. More than 1/2 million people have already voted and the word is that it went 2-1 for Obama. And according to local reports the long lines are featuring a very large proportion of African-american which we are told are going almost 100% for Obama. I am not feeling too good about the prospects for my state. I am hoping we pick PA to make up for it.

neuquenguy on October 22, 2008 at 7:25 PM

I’m not aware of any voting results from the early voting here in NC… just the overall number of early votes. Yeah almost 500,000 votes so far… so? No way of knowing who they were for. Just the break out of the voting blocks.

481,467 total votes cast
138,633 black (29%)
324,398 white (67%)

NC will not flip. The county I live in is a great example. In the 2004 election there was a ratio of 3 democrats to 1 republican and the county still went for Bush. When registration closed for this election cycle, the ratio is now evenly split between democrats and republicans with a remaining 20% registered as ‘unaffiliated’ (aka Independent). A much more favorable mix for the GOP. On November 5th there are going to be a whole hell of a lot of pundits and pollsters trying to figure out just what the fark happened. McCain will be the next president elect.

Drunken Angry Clown on October 22, 2008 at 9:46 PM

Brit is probably the best anchorman there is. And I loved it when he locked horns with Juan on Fox News Sunday with the late Tonny Snow. I don’t know if they still do, I haven’t watched FNS (or much TV) in a long time.

neuquenguy on October 22, 2008 at 8:30 PM

I miss Tony Snow. He was terrific.

I’m not usually blind to what liberals think, but I have to say I was really shocked to discover (during Tony’s last days and following his death) that a lot of them really hated him. I remember being taken aback by the casual way my work colleagues (university) so off-handedly made vicious remarks about him as he was nearing the end. I thought he was great, both as a journalist and as a press secretary.

God bless him.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 10:05 PM

I definitely agree with you. I will also place Hannity, Fox & Friends (the weekday bunch), and Gutfeld on that last. They really need to replace a lot of people in that network starting with the “All Star Panel”.

jencab on October 22, 2008 at 8:30 PM

I’ve been hard on Hannity, but I am really appreciating his efforts to balance out the constant stream of negativity that most of the media is spewing. I like Hannity better when he’s by himself. I find Colmes to be so annoying — like a petulant pre-teen, both intellectually and emotionally — that I have a really hard time watching H&C. I rarely do.

Who’s Gutfeld?

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 10:09 PM

NC will not flip. The county I live in is a great example. In the 2004 election there was a ratio of 3 democrats to 1 republican and the county still went for Bush. When registration closed for this election cycle, the ratio is now evenly split between democrats and republicans with a remaining 20% registered as ‘unaffiliated’ (aka Independent). A much more favorable mix for the GOP. On November 5th there are going to be a whole hell of a lot of pundits and pollsters trying to figure out just what the fark happened. McCain will be the next president elect.

Drunken Angry Clown on October 22, 2008 at 9:46 PM

Remember how people thought the Dems had a chance with NC in 2004 because of Edwards?

Marybeth on October 22, 2008 at 10:17 PM

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