AP: Obama has lost six points in three weeks among likely voters

posted at 1:45 pm on October 22, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

Take this, as with all polling this cycle, with a grain of salt — but usually the error in the AP polling goes the other direction.  A new poll of likely voters has Barack Obama clinging to a one-point lead, 44%-43%, with John McCain making up almost all of a seven-point deficit over the last three weeks.  Guess what may have done the trick, according to the AP?

An Associated Press-GfK poll shows the presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000. Two weeks before the election, McCain and Barack Obama are essentially running even among likely voters.

The poll put Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent among those voters who are considered likely to vote on Nov. 4. The survey supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race has narrowed as Republicans drift home to their party. McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy also seemed to strike a chord.

There’s still plenty of time left in this election.  McCain has now obviously found a winning message that negates Obama’s economic populism.  These respondents hadn’t yet heard Joe Biden’s warning about Obama’s election provoking an international crisis to test his mettle, another message that will regenerate doubts about voting for a man with no executive or military experience in the middle of a war.

The news isn’t great, but there isn’t any need for despair, either.  McCain and Palin need to keep pressing the attack on Obama’s redistributionism and inexperience.

Update: Mary Katharine Ham notes a particularly interesting aspect to this poll:

A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.

Cell-phone users are supposed to be left-leaning demographic historically missed by pollsters (though the vast unpolled cellular herd has never been vast enough to change the game on Election Day). Why would McCain be gaining in a poll with cell-phone users included, and if he is, isn’t it exceedingly promising for the Republican candidate that the numbers are this close? Perhaps they’re polling a disproportionate number of “push-to-talk” Nextel users (read: Joe the Plumber and Tito the Construction Worker) and undersampling Sidekick users.

I’d call that very promising.


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it truly amazes me that anyone can have the argument that gov. palin is unqualfied. how is it that a u.s. senator that has run for the office of president of the u.s. for 2 and 1/2 years is qualified? obama has never done anything that helped the people that he represents. does obama have international experience? if any one can tell me that omaba has more expirience TELL ME! EVEN JOE SAYS THAT BARRACK IS NOT READY TO SERVE!!

TomLawler on October 22, 2008 at 2:36 PM

Hummm, has anyone ever seen Ed and Allah together? Kind of like you never see Clark Kent and Superman together. Just asking.

BobK on October 22, 2008 at 2:16 PM

Has anyone ever seen Allah period? He’s the man behind the curtain. Don’t look behind the curtain!!

;)

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 2:37 PM

Hey, if anyone is listening to Rush and wants to call Senator Bingaman’s office and give their two cents about his lust for the Fairness Doc-call 575-523-6561. I spoke to a squirrel named Greg who didn’t seem too pleased to speak to a constiuent about “Uh, what?” the Fairness Doc.
I explained that the Dems had ABC, NBC, AND CBS, PBS, NPR, and AIR AMERICA. What else do they want? Just because NO ONE wants to listen to them is not our problem.
He muttered something and hung up…..

HornetSting on October 22, 2008 at 2:37 PM

if any one can tell me that omaba has more expirience TELL ME! EVEN JOE SAYS THAT BARRACK IS NOT READY TO SERVE!!

TomLawler on October 22, 2008 at 2:36 PM

He was a community orrrrrganizerrrrr!!!!!!!111!1!!one~! /iSarc

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 2:38 PM

Er-iight…!!

Mr. Pundit is reporting the truth as put out by the Meddling Stork Media. So funny now, huh Ed?

As long as you insist on posting as you “say” what you believe, we will continue giving you crap for what is your rote bias, whether or not you actually believe what your own bias betrays.

Enough said.

Next question.

Mcguyver on October 22, 2008 at 2:39 PM

if any one can tell me that omaba has more expirience TELL ME! EVEN JOE SAYS THAT BARRACK IS NOT READY TO SERVE!!

TomLawler on October 22, 2008 at 2:36 PM
He was a community orrrrrganizerrrrr!!!!!!!111!1!!one~! /iSarc

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 2:38 PM

He was a lawyer for Acorn and he taught a class for them.

HornetSting on October 22, 2008 at 2:39 PM

Has anyone ever seen Allah period? He’s the man behind the curtain. Don’t look behind the curtain!!

;)

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 2:37 PM

No need to.

His (or her) shower curtain is transparent.

Mcguyver on October 22, 2008 at 2:42 PM

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 2:37 PM

Wrong-o. Allah is an android. Explains all of the robot humping videos.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 22, 2008 at 2:42 PM

The AP poll is completely out of step with every other poll, including the Fox News poll released on Wed. Each poll captures a different sample of likely voters, and each sample is exposed to a degree of statistical error.

Pushing a single poll that’s out of line with the rest is nothing more than wishful thinking.

bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:42 PM

I hate polls.

HornetSting on October 22, 2008 at 2:44 PM

This is a political fight, not a real war, and characterizing it as such may suit your purposes, but it serves to increase and harden the polarity splitting the country you claim so to love.

It does far more harm than good.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 2:29 PM

I am not promoting secession or violence or whatever, but I think that Republicans and conservatives have been too complacent. If McCain-Palin lose (a BIG if, imho), then it may be time for Republicans and conservatives to adopt that indignant outrage mantle that the liberal Dems have been wrapping around themselves for 8 years (and the 12 years of Reagan-Bush).

I am sick and tired of seeing conservatives being cowed into silence by the supposed righteous indignation of liberals. Why is it just accepted by otherwise sane seeming liberals (like Ann Althouse) that conservatives must hold their tempers and bite their tongues, while liberals and “progressives” who back Obama can say and do anything?

I worked on the ’72, ’76, ’80, and ’84 political campaigns during the formative years of my youth and young adulthood. I had to stop working on political campaigns — or even putting a friggin’ bumper sticker on my car — for the 20 or so years I spent in academe. WHY SHOULD THAT BE?

When I left the faculty ranks (to go work in the dean’s office of a business school — ie: a much more moderate workplace), I finally put a Bush sticker on my car… only to receive a wacko, vaguely threatening anonymous note on my windshield, which I later discovered was from one of my former faculty colleagues. This is an educated guy who knew me and he still resorted to wacko tactics.

If McCain loses, which personally I believe will only happen because of voter fraud and election tampering by the MSM, then I am going to be every bit as angry as the liberals and progressives have been during Bush’s term. How I express that anger remains to be seen, but I certainly don’t condemn the people who are already saying that Obama will never be their president.

Maybe the pendulum has to swing the other way before we can get back to a place where Americans can have an honest, cordial discussion about politics.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 2:44 PM

Wrong-o. Allah is an android. Explains all of the robot humping videos.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 22, 2008 at 2:42 PM

Whiskey
Tango
Foxtrot

*shudder*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 2:44 PM

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 2:29 PM

Yeah, I understand Rash. Trying to keep up the troops morale. Good on you for that motivation.

Now who is being patronizing?

But keeping up this magical thinking and blaming the polls and eventually McCain’s defeat (assuming he is defeated, not making predictions) on an MSM/Dem/Pollsters/RINO/Defeatist conspiracy just keeps people from thinking clearly about what is going on around them. It’s patronizing and destructive.

No magic here. And I’m not blaming anything on anyone, much less making wild claims about conspiracies. It is what it is and the fact is that McCain will win. You can disbelieve me, if you like. That’s okay, I’m not asking you to believe me. I’m not asking anyone to believe me. But it is what it is, whether you believe me or not. Nothing patronizing about that.

This is a political fight, not a real war, and characterizing it as such may suit your purposes, but it serves to increase and harden the polarity splitting the country you claim so to love. It does far more harm than good.

This is much more than a political fight. Allow me to quote from Tony Blankely’s latest article: “The new conservative movement will be facing a political opponent that will soon reveal itself to be both multiculturalists and Euro-socialist. We will be engaged in a struggle to the political death for the soul of the country.”

He’s not kidding. Fortunately, the struggle to resurrect Reagan Conservatism will be made easier by McCain’s victory.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 2:44 PM

It does far more harm than good.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 2:29 PM

so, optimism is ‘magical thinking’. Another gratuitious insult under the guise of concern: Manly and others are not children who believe that what they wish to happen, will happen simply because of their hopes

Janos Hunyadi on October 22, 2008 at 2:45 PM

It would be a detriment to HA and the conservative blogosphere to lose him.

BKennedy on October 22, 2008 at 2:35 PM

Define “detriment”. I do not think it means what you think it means

unseen on October 22, 2008 at 2:45 PM

Hummm, has anyone ever seen Ed and Allah together? Kind of like you never see Clark Kent and Superman together. Just asking.

BobK on October 22, 2008 at 2:16 PM

Jostles and Hyde.

Mcguyver on October 22, 2008 at 2:46 PM

it truly amazes me that anyone can have the argument that gov. palin is unqualfied

Some people focus on qualities such as intelligence and knowledge when evaluating candidates. People like Colin Powell and Warren Buffet. Others do not, and strongly believe that people like George W. and Palin were highly qualified prior to their campaigns for national office.

A governor for 2 years in a small state… what more could you ask for in a nominee? By this standard, Bill Clinton was extremely overqualified to run for the presidency.

bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:46 PM

Pushing a single poll that’s out of line with the rest is nothing more than wishful thinking.

bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:42 PM

magical thinking, wishful thinking

Leftist echo chamber………….

Janos Hunyadi on October 22, 2008 at 2:47 PM

Who is Allahpundit?

Is he a hero or a skunk?
A fighting Patton or a drunk?
The man’s a turncoat lout
No, he’s just not one to with the talking points shout
He sure has spunk
Oh bunk

The secret simply will not keep
For Hotair’s losing sleep
It’s time to break the spell
Won’t someone bloody tell?

Who is Allahpundit?

Tav on October 22, 2008 at 2:48 PM

Pushing a single poll that’s out of line with the rest is nothing more than wishful thinking. – bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:42 PM

And yet, that is exactly what the Drive-By media will be doing with CBS/NYT-style outliers as we near the finish line. They are becoming desperate and they will do anything they can to help their candidate. Their efforts will have been in vain.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 2:48 PM

bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:46 PM

But she is running for vice-president.

And yet, with only two years as a governor and nine as a mayor, she has more executive experience than Obama and is more qualified for the office of president than HE is.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 2:51 PM

Pushing a single poll that’s out of line with the rest is nothing more than wishful thinking.

bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:42 PM

Yeah, like the Dem’s wishful thinking that Obama is NOT A SOCIALIST! YES, I said it…SOCIALIST.

HornetSting on October 22, 2008 at 2:51 PM

Yea, yea, yea — Sarah is dumb, Obama is smart. We get it.

What I found heartening what the premium that military voters put on CHARACTER in the recent Military Times poll.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 2:52 PM

ManlyRash, while your bravado is admirable you are in great danger of becoming the John McCain campaign’s Baghdad Bob.

Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 2:53 PM

As with the John Edwards affair, we are being treated to an evident news blockade. When John Edwards was busted jockeying around the hotel where his lover lives, the MSM kept quiet for several days and blocked the story from getting out. This is amazing, but it shows how much the MSM is in collusion with some one or some organization — could be communists.

The “official” Obama “birth certificate” has been proven to be faked. And then the question becomes why? Why does Obama allow such fraudulent acts or even tolerate them. But here is the real stickler: Mr. Obama and the DNC were sued by Phllip J. Berg http://www.obamacrimes.com to have a judge order Mr. Obama to produce a valid, verifiable, legal birth certificate in order to fulfill the constitutional requirement that persons running for the Presidency of the United States by natural born citizens — and Mr. Obama and the DNC have, instead of producing said certificate, filled a motion to dismiss. Interestingly enough, Mr. Obama and the DNC did NOT file a response — and affirmative defense — to the effect that the certificate was already on the Internet and viewable. Why? Because 1) it’s a fake, or 2) Mr. Barack Obama does not have a valid birth certificate for the U.S. and/or is NOT a natural born citizen and therefore does not qualify to run for president.

Ask yourself, you are reasonable person — why would Mr. Obama not want to fulfill the requirement of the Constitution? What is he up to?

Judah Benjamin has much to say regarding Mr. Obama’s lack of openness: http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/bombshell/#more-4155

Mr. Phil Berg was interviewed by G. Gordon Liddy this morning (Wednesday) and stated that he will be filing today a motion for summary judgment.

One interesting point that Mr. Benjamin reveals is that Mr. Obama has no reasonable claim of privacy regarding the requirement that he present valid proof that he is a natural born citizen. But interestingly enough, Mr. Berg is adamantly convinced that Obama cannot provide such proof.

http://www.obamacrimes.com

I suggest we all raise our voices in concert and demand that Mr. Obama comply or remove his name from contention. Obama is trivializing the Constitution and really shows a great deal of contempt for the citizens of America.

The best safeguard for our country at this time is to overwhelmingly vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin.

God bless America.

Other link:
Obamalies or lies Obama tells
http://www.nextgenerationcorp.com/NextGenBlog/?p=73

AdrianS on October 22, 2008 at 2:54 PM

Baghdad Bob didn’t have a rash.

HornetSting on October 22, 2008 at 2:54 PM

Vote, vote, vote on election day.

I’m glad I already cast an absentee ballot against every Democrat out there I could, but I will miss the fine experience of voting against Democrat scum at my polling place.

NoDonkey on October 22, 2008 at 1:48 PM

NoDonkey..no problem.

Call your local ACORN office and they can get you a new registration so you can vote again on election day.

txdoc on October 22, 2008 at 2:55 PM

Obama is not ahead. Those Democrat losers, I think their repeated frequent lies in the polls are bringing them down very rapidly. John McCain’s victory is secure, is safe.

Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 2:57 PM

Call your local ACORN office and they can get you a new registration so you can vote again on election day.

txdoc on October 22, 2008 at 2:55 PM

He wants to vote AGAINST the Democrats. ACORN would issue a citizen’s arrest then tote him around as proof the Repubs are trying to “steal the election again”.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 2:58 PM

Obama learned a lesson at the last debate he will never forget. John McCain slaughtered him and will continue to slaughter him.

Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 2:59 PM

Obama will be burnt. John McCain is going to tackle him.

Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 3:00 PM

ManlyRash, while your bravado is admirable you are in great danger of becoming the John McCain campaign’s Baghdad Bob. – Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 2:53 PM

No bravado here. It is what it is. I know what I know. Take it or leave it. McCain is going to win…handily. If anything, the Baghdad Bob moniker will belong to the Drive-By media.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 3:01 PM

John McCain has blocked Obama in the South. Obama’s rear is blocked. Obama pushed a few voters with ACORN and some with 100 dollar bills. That’s all. McCain will besieged him and I think he will finish him soon.

Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 3:03 PM

Obama’s rear is blocked.

Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 3:03 PM

Could have fooled me. He spews so much bullsh*t.

HornetSting on October 22, 2008 at 3:04 PM

A governor for 2 years in a small state… what more could you ask for in a nominee? By this standard, Bill Clinton was extremely overqualified to run for the presidency.

bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:46 PM

Please, enlighten us to Obama’s “qualities such as intelligence and knowledge”. What in his history gives him anything but average intelligence or knowledge?
Please, give us your knowledge…
Don’t say Harvard Law School…we don’t know how he got in. He has never released his grades from Columbia (if they were exceptional don’t you think he would have?). So we have to assume it was an “affirmative action” placement (although he could release his LSATs, but they better be over 170, I don’t think we will see those). But he was Law Review, the first year it was an election and not based on academics…where are his Review papers? But the president of Harvard Law Review is always asked to clerk for a chief justice…well he wasn’t asked, that is reserved for the top of the class. Well he must have passed at least the state bar, do you have any info. that he did? No…gosh.
Well, we will let you correct the record…

right2bright on October 22, 2008 at 3:05 PM

Kafir on October 22, 2008 at 2:06 PM

He’s spending the money because he’s got it and it’s not his.

I had two friends from wealthy families in college. One of my friends was conservative and one was liberal. Both had been given credit cards by their parents to pay for food and necessary expenses.

My liberal friend would buy pizza for everyone and was a popular guy at the bars because he’d always put a round of drinks on the credit card.

My conservative friend would come back from his weekly trip to the grocery store bragging about the fact that he was able to keep everything under $15.

It, of course, wouldn’t apply across the board to all liberals or all conservatives (my conservative brother had no problem spending my parents money in college), but, it illustrates the broader point that some people have no problem spending money, even if they don’t need to, as long as it’s other people’s money.

JadeNYU on October 22, 2008 at 3:06 PM

Obama is not anywhere near victory. Don’t believe him. The Obama forces claim they are ahead in Pennsylvania… They claim they may even win Ohio … that’s in the hearland of America. The Obama forces claim that they – I tell you, I… that these pools are too far from the reality. It is a part of this sickness of their plan with the pools. There is no an… – no any existence to the Obama voters in America at all.

Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 3:09 PM

Some people focus on qualities such as intelligence and knowledge when evaluating candidates. People like Colin Powell and Warren Buffet. Others do not, and strongly believe that people like George W. and Palin were highly qualified prior to their campaigns for national office.

A governor for 2 years in a small state… what more could you ask for in a nominee? By this standard, Bill Clinton was extremely overqualified to run for the presidency.

bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:46 PM

hmm W. wilson served two years as Gov of New jersey before becoming president. Gov Palin is extremely intelligent. a havard degree simple means you have money in your family. Look at Bush. Degree at Yale and that shows what? Nothing. Gov Palin is in control of $11 billion budget, 15-20% of our domestic energy, 26,000 employees. I would agree that her Knowledge of world affairs is less than some. But Kowledge and intelligence are two different things. does she have enough intelligence to learn the knowledge needed? Yes. Is she running for President? No.

what noonan, Powell, and others are saying is that the founding fathers experiment in self government is wrong. we should be ruled by a “elite” class. I find this arguement stupid. For the last 200 years we have proven that America works best when we are rules by the non elites. Be it Reagan, truman, Ike, Clinton, Teddy Rosevelt, etc. it is only when we turn to the elites like Bush 1 and Bush 2, FDR, Nixion, Wilson do we as a country move towards socialism. The elites are not the answer.

unseen on October 22, 2008 at 3:09 PM

Baghdad Bob didn’t have a rash. – HornetSting on October 22, 2008 at 2:54 PM

Or a Manly Rash costume for Halloween.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 3:10 PM

This is much more than a political fight. Allow me to quote from Tony Blankely’s latest article: “The new conservative movement will be facing a political opponent that will soon reveal itself to be both multiculturalists and Euro-socialist. We will be engaged in a struggle to the political death for the soul of the country.”

He’s not kidding. Fortunately, the struggle to resurrect Reagan Conservatism will be made easier by McCain’s victory.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 2:44 PM

Yup, as I said. Blankley characterizes it as a fight to the political death, then goes on to equate that with keeping the country together. He and you characterize Obama and the dems as the enemy. They are not, they are fellow citizens. The more the DKos and Huffpo and HA hardliners continue down that path, the more they contribute to creating a self-fulfilling prophecy: ‘They’ are ‘our’ enemies, therefore they are evil, therefore we must either defeat them or the country will die.

Civility in civilian life and civility in political discourse are not just ‘nice’ to have. They are vital, because it is incivility, it is accusation and counter-accusation, is it creation of an ‘enemy’ out of a citizen, that divides, hardens and makes rigid an ‘us vs them’ mentality. That is how civil wars arise, large and small, bloody or just sweaty.

It’s divisiveness at its root, and destructive to the core.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 3:12 PM

Obama will not win anyplace. McCain is on the move everywhere. Obama is like a snake moving in the desert. He holds no place in America. The polls are an illusion.

Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 3:13 PM

i remember florida in 2000 when the vote did not count. the gore people said that we won!! not only gore but the left leaning media. it seems to me that no one will recall the fact that most tv nad or left media said that al had won. HOURS BEFORE THE POLLS CLOSED. AL HUNG ON TO HANGING CHADS? if any ond can explain to me a pregant or hanging chad i would like to know!! the left has been pissed every since

if i were a guy like obama of even joe i would critize my typing skills. when the media actually reprts the news i might listen.

TomLawler on October 22, 2008 at 3:15 PM

These democrat villains, and in particular the villain Obama, said they will win with well over 300 electoral votes to defeat John McCain. Not only will they be disappointed, I think they will all become hysterical.

Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 3:17 PM

Now who is being patronizing?

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 2:44 PM

You can take it as a hard-won compliment or take it as patronizing, certainly your choice.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 3:18 PM

Some people focus on qualities such as intelligence and knowledge when evaluating candidates.
bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:46 PM

Given that Obama is ignorant enough to put forward socialist proposals for tax policy, his intelligence and knowledge are clearly in question.
Unless, of course, he does know what a catastrophe they would be, and is pushing them just to win an election, which would make him a lire and a fraud.

Count to 10 on October 22, 2008 at 3:19 PM

It’s divisiveness at its root, and destructive to the core. – trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 3:12 PM

Yup. And if history and the immutability of human nature are any guide, it is inevitable – McCain’s election will only slow it down. But the schism is occurring and progressing steadily. To deny this is to deny reality and doing so for the sake of concord is madness.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 3:19 PM

Obama will not win anyplace. McCain is on the move everywhere. Obama is like a snake moving in the desert. He holds no place in America. The polls are an illusion.

Murphy9 on October 22, 2008 at 3:13 PM

Are you venting, here, or…

Count to 10 on October 22, 2008 at 3:20 PM

BKennedy on October 22, 2008 at 2:05 PM

Very helpful. Thanks.

Sir Napsalot on October 22, 2008 at 3:22 PM

Has anyone ever seen Allah period? He’s the man behind the curtain. Don’t look behind the curtain!!

;)

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 22, 2008 at 2:37 PM

Allah is in all likelihood, really Kirstin Powers.

lol

csdeven on October 22, 2008 at 3:22 PM

Allah is in all likelihood, really Kirstin Powers.

lol

csdeven on October 22, 2008 at 3:22 PM

The rumour is Allahpundit is New Yorkish
A New Yorker who’s playing peek-a-boo
Were I Allahpundit, I’d feel rather skittish
If not blue

It’s possible our hero flirts with danger
How he wishes KP would flirt with he
Methinks this thread will grow even stranger
Ah, mais oui

Tav on October 22, 2008 at 3:26 PM

A governor for 2 years in a small state… what more could you ask for in a nominee?

bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:46 PM

Alaska is a small state??? …with over 15,000 state government employees, and a budget of over $9 billion (and $11 billion in revenues), and the largest state in the union????

What an idiot! …and on so many levels! …geographic, economic, simple common sense… what more could you ask in a liberal Obama supporter?

dominigan on October 22, 2008 at 3:29 PM

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 3:12 PM

Do you also post at Dkos, HuffPo, or DU and tell them to play nice? If so, do you have a transcript of responses that we could see?
I like HA because its posters are witty, not foulmouthed, and (fairly) thoughtful while unabashedly conservative. I suggest you take your “concern” to where the nutters really hang out–the above-mentioned lefty sites. Troll.

Fortunata on October 22, 2008 at 3:30 PM

The brilliance of Obama’s illegal global fundraising, early ACORN RICO voting, race-card carrying campaign is that he knows he can’t be stopped now by voters or the Constitution without triggering the type of destabilizing riots that Ayers and his followers have dreamed of triggering since the 60′s. It’s a win-win situation for the Marxist left even if Obama is now Constitutionally DQ’ed or defeated at the polls.

econavenger on October 22, 2008 at 3:31 PM

Tav on October 22, 2008 at 3:26 PM

hahaha

csdeven on October 22, 2008 at 3:36 PM

Fortunata on October 22, 2008 at 3:30 PM

+1

I’ve only seen a handful of people who post here who post openly as liberals, so I’m not sure who is being offended or what is being jeopardized by MR’s posts expressing his opinions about how dire the situation our country faces is. I’m sure barry and dave can handle it.

When I meet an Obama supporter who is respectful of Gov. Palin and conservatives, or when Obama disavows his code Pink bundlers, I’ll start worrying about whether or not liberals are getting offended by what is posted here.

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 3:37 PM

If the internal polls are close on election night I fully expect the MSM to pull a year 2000/Dan Rather/CBS stunt and declare Obama the winner early. Legal or not the exit polling in VA and FL will be plastered all over Midwest and Western TV screens long before their polls close.

Limerick on October 22, 2008 at 2:06 PM

No matter – people won’t fall for that again, They remember 2000. BTW, I just early voted – I’m such a racist.

Vashta.Nerada on October 22, 2008 at 3:37 PM

A governor for 2 years in a small state… what more could you ask for in a nominee? By this standard, Bill Clinton was extremely overqualified to run for the presidency.

bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:46 PM

Still waiting for your response to the “true intellect” of Obama.
And just for you to ponder…did you know that Palin was running for VP and not president like Clinton was? You’re welcome.

right2bright on October 22, 2008 at 3:37 PM

c’mon right2bright… Obama is smart, Palin is dumb. Obama is smart, Palin is dumb. Obama is smart, Palin is dumb. Obama is smart, Palin is dumb. Obama is smart, Palin is dumb. Obama is smart, Palin is dumb. Obama is smart, Palin is dumb. Obama is smart, Palin is dumb. Obama is smart, Palin is dumb. Obama is smart, Palin is dumb. Obama is smart, Palin is dumb.

Get with the program.

/sarc

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 3:39 PM

The hand-wringing over the tone of political discourse on this site brings to mind this quote from LOTR. Substitute Saruman for Obama supporters (and trolls); ManlyRash can be Theoden.

SARUMAN: ‘What have you to say, Théoden King? Will you have peace with me, and all the aid that my knowledge, founded in long years, can bring? Shall we make our counsels together against evil days, and repair our injuries with such good will that our estates shall both come to fairer flower than ever before?…The friendship of Saruman and the power of Orthanc cannot be lightly thrown aside, whatever grievances, real or fancied, may lie behind. You have won a battle but not a war – and that with help on which you cannot count again. You may find the Shadow of the Wood at your own door next: it is wayward, and senseless, and has no love for Men.

‘But my lord of Rohan, am I to be called a murderer, because valiant men have fallen in battle? If you go to war, needlessly, for I did not desire it, then men will be slain. But if I am a murderer on that account, than all of House of Eorl is stained with murder; for they have fought many wars, and assailed many who defied them. Yet with some they have afterwards made peace, none the worse for being politic. I say, Théoden King: shall we have peace and friendship, you and I? It is ours to command.’

THEODEN: ‘We will have peace,’ said Théoden at last thickly and with an effort. Several of the Riders cried out gladly. Théoden held up his hand. ‘Yes, we will have peace,’ he said, now in a clear voice, ‘we will have peace, when you and all your works have perished – and the works of your dark master to whom you would deliver us. You are a liar, Saruman, and a corrupter of men’s hearts. You hold out your hand to me, and I perceive only a finger of the claw of Mordor. Cruel and cold! Even if your war on me was just – as it was not, for were you ten times as wise you would have no right to rule me and mine for your own profit as you desired – even so, what will you say of your torches in the Westfold and the children that lie dead there? And they hewed Háma’s ’body before the gates of the Hornburg, after he was dead. When you hang from a gibbet at your window for the sport of your own crows, I will have peace with you and Orthanc. So much for the House of Eorl. A lesser son of great sires I am, but I do not need to lick your fingers. Turn elsewhither. But I fear your voice has lost its charm.’

Y-not on October 22, 2008 at 3:47 PM

trailboss:
You must have been out on the trail the last eight years punching them cows. Now that you think? that Obama is going to win you want civility???

Vince on October 22, 2008 at 3:51 PM

Yup. And if history and the immutability of human nature are any guide, it is inevitable – McCain’s election will only slow it down. But the schism is occurring and progressing steadily. To deny this is to deny reality and doing so for the sake of concord is madness.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 3:19 PM

It is inevitable only if we make it so, and contribute to it. Fighting for civil discourse is not the same as denying reality, it is working to make it reality. Calling schism ‘history’ and ‘human nature’ is to deny any human free will and an excuse to continue on with what appeals to our baser selves. If you are right, we are not only going to lose our country, we are doomed as a species.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 3:56 PM

Okay, Since there is a lot discussion about outlier polls, here is a thought…

I am going to take 7 of the 14 polls listed on the RCP poll average chart…
The ones I selected are as credible–if not more credible–than the 7 that were not selected…

I come up with Obama +4…

DON”T TELL ME THIS GUY ISN’T SWEATING.

McCain is going to win.

I got the (manly) rash!

joepub on October 22, 2008 at 4:00 PM

Has anyone ever seen Allah period? He’s the man behind the curtain. Don’t look behind the curtain!!

He is TV’s Andrew Levy. Watch for the secret hand signals he gives while on Red Eye

Janos Hunyadi on October 22, 2008 at 4:04 PM

FYI: I am in Boca Raton, FL, and I just came from an early voting site. It was a madhouse. Left without voting, but not before making fun of some Obama loons; they had their kids, who had to have been under 10, waving signs. Unbelieveable.

FLcapitalistthug on October 22, 2008 at 4:06 PM

Do you also post at Dkos, HuffPo, or DU and tell them to play nice? If so, do you have a transcript of responses that we could see?
I like HA because its posters are witty, not foulmouthed, and (fairly) thoughtful while unabashedly conservative. I suggest you take your “concern” to where the nutters really hang out–the above-mentioned lefty sites. Troll.

Fortunata on October 22, 2008 at 3:30 PM

That is the most circular and self-serving non-sequiter I have seen in quite a while, but I will try to answer it.

I have posted such rebukes at Huffpo, (but no, I’m not going to waste my time retrieving them for you) and got roundly criticized there just like here. Loony Left or Bizarre Right, just opposite sides of the same coin – reality-denial, creating enemies of fellow citizens, rigid uncompromising positions, hateful and ridiculous.

Is ‘troll’ a bad word?

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:08 PM

You must have been out on the trail the last eight years punching them cows. Now that you think? that Obama is going to win you want civility???

Vince on October 22, 2008 at 3:51 PM

Yes. What did McCain say once about Mitt – Never fight a pig, you’ll just get dirty and the pig enjoys it.

Yes, again. Having republicans resort to the same trash-talking, dirty politics as some of the dems? We’ll only get dirty and sit in the mud with them. Or is it now the ends justify whatever the means?

If the Right wants to be ‘right,’ it will have to quit resorting to the tactics of the left. You don’t lead but by example. If conservatives want a down and dirty America, we’ll get it, and we’ll have contributed mightily to it.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:15 PM

I keep hearing that polls are scientific and all that. And yet, look at these polls, there is no way to make sense of them.

Terrye on October 22, 2008 at 4:20 PM

Is ‘troll’ a bad word?

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:08 PM

yes it is, troll. Interesting: you admit that you post on HuffPo, AND YOU MAKE HOTAIR THE EQUIVALENT OF HUFFINGTON POST

That gives you away more than any of your ‘concerned’ posts

Anyone who think that the comments here are essentially the same as the comments at Huffington Post is something worse than a ‘troll’. Even some of the HuffPo creeps know that

Janos Hunyadi on October 22, 2008 at 4:25 PM

Here, Fortunata I’ve given in to the temptation. Following are addresses to some of my posts at Huffpo – I’m too damn lazy to create links. My screen name there is tiny68300. Don’t ask for an explanation of it. click if you want, if not, no skin off my posterior.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-kelly/mitt-romney-probably-wont_b_110214.html?show_comment_id=13964637#comment_13964637

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/25/the-myth-of-the-surge-ho_n_88362.html?page=3&show_comment_id=11653259#comment_11653259

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/martin-lewis/note-to-liberal-hillaryb_b_65770.html?page=2&show_comment_id=9985428#comment_9985428

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hal-donahue/limbaugh-compares-wounded_b_67028.html?page=3&show_comment_id=10056590#comment_10056590

Hell, the links got created anyway.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:43 PM

Anyone who think that the comments here are essentially the same as the comments at Huffington Post is something worse than a ‘troll’. Even some of the HuffPo creeps know that

Janos Hunyadi on October 22, 2008 at 4:25 PM

Whatever you say, Janos.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:45 PM

Here, Fortunata I’ve given in to the temptation. Following are addresses to some of my posts at Huffpo – creating links is a pain. My screen name there is tiny68300. Don’t ask for an explanation of it.

a:
b:

c:

and d:

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:53 PM

what is going on with this site? these posts aren’t posting then I send in duplicates. Arrg..

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:54 PM

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:43 PM
trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:46 PM

Please disregard these earlier posts. My apologies.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:56 PM

I’m too lazy to create links. My screen name there is tiny68300. Don’t ask for an explanation of it

yeah, tiny, whatver YOU say–and I’m sure this is a Representative Sample

68 is your birth year and 300 your weight?

Janos Hunyadi on October 22, 2008 at 4:57 PM

how old are you people?

FLcapitalistthug on October 22, 2008 at 5:03 PM

Obama: “Faster clock! Faster!!”

CliffHanger on October 22, 2008 at 5:04 PM

yeah, tiny, whatver YOU say–and I’m sure this is a Representative Sample

68 is your birth year and 300 your weight?

Janos Hunyadi on October 22, 2008 at 4:57 PM

Try them and see, Janos the Troll Marshall. 6′ 8″ is my height and yes 300 my weight.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 5:10 PM

I keep hearing that polls are scientific and all that. And yet, look at these polls, there is no way to make sense of them.

Terrye on October 22, 2008 at 4:20 PM

There is, Terrye, but many people here don’t like what it shows. Try the realclearpolitics.com average. It actually worked quite well in 2004 and in this year’s primaries.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 5:14 PM

Has Obama had a town hall or taken questions from the public since Joe?
If not, I think McCain’s people should start mentioning it.

Ronnie on October 22, 2008 at 5:37 PM

If you are right, we are not only going to lose our country, we are doomed as a species.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 3:56 PM

It’s only a question of when. Since 2000 we are regressing, rapidly. Never mind those stuck in centuries 7-11, still.

Entelechy on October 22, 2008 at 5:47 PM

bayam on October 22, 2008 at 2:46 PM

Silly bayam. Alaska is by far the LARGEST state; nearly 2 1/2 times the size of the next largest state.

Now, if you had said ‘a sparsely populated state’ you would have been correct in at least part of that post.

The rulers of most NATIONS do not rule over as much territory or as much natural resource wealth as Governor Palin does.

And your guy 0bama has never ruled over anything.

LegendHasIt on October 22, 2008 at 5:48 PM

Update: Mary Katharine Ham notes a particularly interesting aspect to this poll:

Larger percentage of the south and west are cell phone users than the north.

lorien1973 on October 22, 2008 at 5:53 PM

And your guy 0bama has never ruled over anything.

LegendHasIt on October 22, 2008 at 5:48 PM

But he will rule over the world, soon.

p.s. Say, MDL, are you spelling Obama, with a preceding zero? I’ve noticed a while ago. Cypher?

Entelechy on October 22, 2008 at 5:54 PM

If you are right, we are not only going to lose our country, we are doomed as a species. – trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 3:56 PM

We are doomed as a species. I’m surprised you have not already figured that out.

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 6:03 PM

You know what’s funny? The media keeps showing those two week old polls with Obama having 10 point lead on McCain…

Obama/ Propaganda 08! We’re broadcasting it, so it must be true!

Cr4sh Dummy on October 22, 2008 at 6:14 PM

Great, so one of the smallest states (by population) in the nation has 15,000 state employees and that’s supposed to be a rallying cry for Republicans?

And when were conservatives ever cowed into silence by the supposed righteous indignation of liberals? Didn’t many of you call them libtards, Bush Derangement Syndrome (sic?) carriers, etc.? [The internet and the internet blogs are, in general, center to right of center.] And now you want to act like you have Obama Derangement Syndrome to somehow demonstrate what? And why do you think that will be successful?

Just. Grow. Up.

jim m on October 22, 2008 at 6:17 PM

Entelechy on October 22, 2008 at 5:54 PM

Yes, indeed, a zero instead of an O. It has become fairly widespread amongst those of us who love the subtle snark.

Zero, as in Zero Experience, Zero Value, and for America, if they are foolish enough to elect him, Zero GDP, Zero Future for its citizens.

LegendHasIt on October 22, 2008 at 6:22 PM

jim m on October 22, 2008 at 6:17 PM

What’s your plan for putting conservatism into ascendancy?

JiangxiDad on October 22, 2008 at 6:25 PM

These respondents hadn’t yet heard Joe Biden’s warning about Obama’s election provoking an international crisis to test his mettle

Yeah, but didn’t the MSM kind of bury that one?

PattyJ on October 22, 2008 at 6:26 PM

Great, so one of the smallest states (by population) in the nation has 15,000 state employees and that’s supposed to be a rallying cry for Republicans? – jim m on October 22, 2008 at 6:17 PM

Hardly. It merely evidences the fact that Gove. Palin has executive experience that spans most of her political life, whereas Obama has NO executive experience.

Then again…he was a “community organizer.” I guess that counts for something, no?

ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 6:32 PM

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 5:10 PM

sigh…….

a representative sample would be those picked AT RANDOM from among ALL of your comments at HuffPo, not those picked BY YOU to support your point. No wonder you can’t understand polls

The far more important point is that you believe that the comments here are essentially the same as at HuffPo. However flawed MY comments are, they are not typical–and even I make the typical HuffPo poster look like a Model of Restraint

and I only go after those who consistently go after others–like you, for example, fresh from dancing at Huffington ( which even many in the Tanning Bed Media hold their noses at )

Janos Hunyadi on October 22, 2008 at 6:34 PM

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 4:46 PM

OK, so you do the same kind of concern trolling there too. From what I could see, only we at HA take the trouble to reply to you. No wonder it’s more satisfying to troll here instead. I think in future, I will take the HuffPo approach.

Fortunata on October 22, 2008 at 6:45 PM

Obama wouldn’t be going into hiding in Hawaii for a few days if he weren’t scared of something.

Maybe a question he wishes to avoid.

About his VP pick?

profitsbeard on October 22, 2008 at 6:55 PM

Yeah,, a one point lead,,, just can’t give that one point to McCain can they?? Can’t have McCain up by one,,.

JellyToast on October 22, 2008 at 6:55 PM

Is it just me or are the Fox All Stars in decline?

CinnamongirlUF on October 22, 2008 at 7:01 PM

Maybe a question he wishes to avoid.

About his VP pick?

profitsbeard on October 22, 2008 at 6:55 PM

Something’s up over there, but I don’t think it’s a question only. Maybe he’ll look into some shoeboxes while he’s over there.

Entelechy on October 22, 2008 at 7:05 PM

pb, it might be bigger than his choice of VP. The Gaffenmeister may have unwittingly done him a favor. I put my money on Michelle O.

Entelechy on October 22, 2008 at 7:06 PM

I think in future, I will take the HuffPo approach.
Fortunata on October 22, 2008 at 6:45 PM

If only you would, it would be fortunate for all.

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 7:07 PM

We are doomed as a species. I’m surprised you have not already figured that out.
ManlyRash on October 22, 2008 at 6:03 PM

my aren’t we the pessimist today. just marking time till doomsday?

trailboss on October 22, 2008 at 7:10 PM

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