McCain going for broke in Pennsylvania?
posted at 1:18 pm on October 21, 2008 by Allahpundit
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So says the Washington Times.
“He’s 13 points behind in the state polls, Obama’s outspending him 4-to-1, Obama has a huge field organization that he can’t begin to touch, and the race hasn’t tightened in a week. Did I miss anything?” said Terry Madonna, director of Pennsylvania’s Franklin & Marshall College Poll…
One of [McCain's] senior advisers said recently that not all is lost in Pennsylvania.
“We’re seeing very different poll numbers,” the adviser said. “We’re not seeing double digits; we think it’s much closer.”
An aide on the ground in the state, meanwhile, said internal polls show Mr. Obama’s lead in the “mid- to low single digits.”…
But Mr. Madonna said time is running out for the Republican. “I thought all along that if he could get it into single digits this week, he had a chance. He hasn’t. They say his internal polls show him better than our state polls, but wait a minute. What that means is that every single poll – every single poll – done in the last couple weeks is wrong. That can’t be,” he said with a laugh.
Yeah, every poll this month except one has Obama by double digits, and the one outlier has him by eight. Here’s the RCP map. If you give Maverick every last toss-up state (in gray), he’s still behind 286-252. Your task: Flip 18 EVs from blue to red, then scroll down for my take.
He could do it by taking Virginia and Colorado, but (a) Colorado may or may not be a lost cause, and (b) I think TNR’s right that with so many toss-ups to defend and the Democrats with an almost $40 million cash advantage (and growing), he’s probably better off concentrating on one state that can get him those extra 18 EVs rather than spreading out across the country and dividing resources among several. If he wins Pennsylvania, he can lose both states I mentioned and still win the election. As the Times notes, late deciders and rural white voters broke hard for Hillary there so a full push into the state is bound to do some good. But if that’s the strategy, what’s Palin doing out in Colorado Springs? She should be touring the toss-ups to try to keep them red while McCain sets up shop in Murtha country for the next two weeks. The one strategy that doesn’t make sense to me is to divide time between Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Colorado. It hedges your bets, but those bets are necessarily smaller in each case when you really need to be betting big now.
FYI, the last time Maverick led in any poll in Pennsylvania was late April. Exit quotation: “I get the appeal of trying to win one state (Pa.) rather than having to run the table on a lot of little ones (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa …), but this is the equivalent of Kerry deciding it would be easier to just stage a comeback in Texas.”
Update: If you’re looking for national polls, take your pick: GWU says Obama by one, Zogby says Obama by eight.
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It would be awesome awesomeness for McCain-Palin to take OH and PA. They should capitalize on all those bitter clingers and clean coal.
JustTruth101 on October 21, 2008 at 1:24 PM
I think PA is still in play drove threw parts of it this past weekend and saw all kinds of McCain/Palin not near as many Obama/Biden’s so I can understand why McCain is playin for the state. just mho
tee866 on October 21, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Well sheesh do we even need to vote?
Theworldisnotenough on October 21, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Daily Kos. Internal Polls leaked to Press shows Obama is barely in the lead in PA
William Amos on October 21, 2008 at 1:25 PM
William Amos on October 21, 2008 at 1:25 PM
I’d say go for broke in Pennsylvania, although unfortunately he’s going to have to also battle the phony ACORN votes from Philadelphia.
I can’t believe that the rural areas of Pennsylvania are a very good territory for Obama, particularly if the NRA has been running ads.
NoDonkey on October 21, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Interesting.
Allah, since you are the POLL KING. In you own opinion of course, do you think this may be a extremely close race?
upinak on October 21, 2008 at 1:26 PM
Opps!
upinak on October 21, 2008 at 1:26 PM
I know PA and Ohio, I do not think Obama takes it. His weakness is he could not carry anything outside the major urban areas. Did that weakness evaporate? Gore won PA by 4, Kerry by 2, and now we are to believe Obama is going to run away with the state by 8? Cmon man.
Theworldisnotenough on October 21, 2008 at 1:27 PM
MCCAIN WILL WIN PA>
the last PA poll to have O by 10 had about a D+15 sampling.
SAMPLE WEIGHTS PEOPLE! POLLSTERS DONT JUST CALL 100 PEOPLE AND REPORT THE ANSWER! THEY “GIVE” POINTS TO DEMS BASED ON ASSUMPTION OF “DEM TURNOUT”
again, really? in PA? where Obama lost by 10? where catholics and jews and racists and pumas hate his guts?
Bitter clingers are going to turnout Dem +15 or Dem +20 in TURNOUT?
F that.
McCain will win PA & Ohio & Missouri & Virginia & North Carolina.
The NC & MO polls are totally bogus, PA is close as is VA but Mac wins both.
battleoflepanto1571 on October 21, 2008 at 1:27 PM
I agree. Hold the toss-ups and go for broke in PA.
lodge on October 21, 2008 at 1:28 PM
sounds like the campaign doesn’t by the Voter ID models the MSM polls are using, can’t say I blame them.
jp on October 21, 2008 at 1:29 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html
Susquehanna 10/16 – 10/18 700 LV 3.7 48 40 Obama +8
ninjapirate on October 21, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Well, according to Jack Murtha – that swell, soft-spoken, rosy cheeked curmudgeon – Pennsylvania IS racist and a bunch of rednecks, after all.
AubieJon on October 21, 2008 at 1:29 PM
repost:
http://www.hedgehogreport.com/?comments_popup=8674
http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com/
all you need to know.
FACTS (from hedgehog, today’s comments):
“* Tracking polls are now showing a 4-5 point race and closing. And this is often with skewed oversampling of Democrats.
* There is still a SIGNIFICANT group of undecided voters that many think will break heavily to MAC on election day b/c if they haven’t decided for Obama by now, they never will.
* Potential Bradley Effect of 4-6 points according to Obama’s own campaign.
All of this is to say that MAC, while an underdog, can still win this.”
fact is, these polls ARE trash… the ap yahoo poll yesterday? 41% of respondents were UNEMPLOYED. Um, national rate is 6%.
14% respondents were hispanic…. only 6% of voters are hispanic.
these polls oversample college kids, etc to a crazy degree
there’s going to be SERIOUS embarrassment on november 5 by most every pollster
the “WEIGHTING” of dems is INSANE. THIS SHOULD BE A FRONT PAGE STORY. why does gallup, others have 45% dems and 28% repubs? in the BEST year ever for dems since watergate, 2006, the final spread was…
….. Dems by +3 turnout.
Um…. so “the one”, the guy who couldnt finish hill, who lost to ky dems by 40 POINTS, the guy who pumas and racists and catholic dems and jews and seniors don’t trust or don’t like, somehow he is going to have a D +20 turnout???????
I don’t know why Rush or even McCain arent SCREAMING from the rooftops every day, the weighting of these things are TRASH! SERIOUSLY!
battleoflepanto1571 on October 21, 2008 at 1:29 PM
I’ll echo the question that was asked yesterday- What did McCain bring to the ticket? What blue states are now in the red column because of McCain’s presence on the ticket?
I’m not saying McCain should roll over and play dead at this point but let’s stop any pretense that this election is going to see a bipartisan swing one way or the other. The red states are still red. The blue states are still blue. The only thing that has changed is that ACORN is much more organized in getting stupid poor black people to the polls.
highhopes on October 21, 2008 at 1:29 PM
maybe the phillies will win worldseries and have extended riots in Philly and depress turnout there
jp on October 21, 2008 at 1:30 PM
maybe they are covering for the ACORN fraud
jp on October 21, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Let them hold their bibles and guns and vote like the wind!
upinak on October 21, 2008 at 1:31 PM
add in the POLL WEIGHTING RESAMPLING, and Mac is tied in the Margin of Error…………..
battleoflepanto1571 on October 21, 2008 at 1:32 PM
Models are based on past results. Both McCain and Obama should be getting some encouragement out of the fact that the dynamics of this campaign are different than the standard “two white guys in blue suits and red ties saying essentially the same thing” norm.
highhopes on October 21, 2008 at 1:32 PM
Let’s be fair here, ACORN will also succeed in getting a lot of stupid white people to the polls as well.
And stupid dead people. And stupid illegal immigrants. And stupid cats. And stupid dogs.
NoDonkey on October 21, 2008 at 1:33 PM
early voting in NC so far is heavy Democrat, hopefully the acorn voters are dumb enough to mark straight ticket Dem, because that isn’t a vote in Presidential race if they do
jp on October 21, 2008 at 1:34 PM
Pennsylvania would seem to be a must win.
But it’s too early to give up on Colorado and Virginia.
Maybe by Friday . . .
But not yet.
JudetheFossil on October 21, 2008 at 1:35 PM
I find it hard to believe PA will break for Obama. The second oldest population in the country. Many, many “rednecks” as Murtha noted. Murtha may have pissed off the rest of PA that wishes the 12 district would throw his ass out!
PA will go McCain this time. Many PUMAs in PA. My whole family lives there and they were all Hilary supporters. 8 outta 10 don’t think much of Senator Gubment.
JAM on October 21, 2008 at 1:35 PM
This PA resident sure hasn’t found many Obama supporters in his neck of the woods. The only place I’ve seen Obama signs are in the yards of professors from a local college near my home.
matthewbit07 on October 21, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Thank heaven for rednecks.
Maxx on October 21, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Where else would the leader of the bitter clinging, redneck racists go?
Elizabetty on October 21, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Let’s bump Ed’s Comprehensive Case Against Obama back to the top and deep six this one to where it belongs.
aquaviva on October 21, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Polls are trash ’tis true.
You may be onto something.
Badger40 on October 21, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Pa is full of rednecks and racists of course McCain will win it. so says Murtha. but in my map McCain gets 300+
unseen on October 21, 2008 at 1:36 PM
*the ability to win Pennsylvania & Ohio, and not sweat about Florida.
*the ability to win New Hampshire, and the other Maine cong. district (reaaaally important if it ends up 269-269, maine EV puts mac on top)
*the ability to have legitimate ‘experience’ up top, steady, steady, steady for the late breaking (let’s face it, “white” and “older”) undecideds
*the possibility to win Wisconsin/Michigan/Minnesota. mich is a loss, Minn is winnable, i think wisconsin is like bush in PA… no matter how hard, mac won’t win wisconsin
*the certainty to win VIRGINIA. Military peeps are breaking 65-35 for Mccain. MILITARY HISPANICS, ASIANS, ETC vote mccain 75-25. Virginia around Newport News, Va. Beach, Norfolk, etc, etc, has loads of military. Northern virginia has many military associated folks with ties to DC or quantico.
*and Palin shores up the west. I think we lose Colorado if not for Palin
*
battleoflepanto1571 on October 21, 2008 at 1:37 PM
problem with Penn. is Philly and Pittsburgh, and Dem corruption there.
wonder what internal polling shows elswhere.
One thing is certain IF McCain wins and no MSM polls show him in lead going in. The Dems and Media will scream voter fraud against GOP and claim ACORN was covering it up for GOP or something along those lines. an idiot in NYT today ran op-ed saying ACORN is not doing voter fraud and it was GOP “Scare tactics”
jp on October 21, 2008 at 1:38 PM
and i’ll add: would Fred Thompson be doing better?
Nope. He’s have NO SHOT at New Hampshire, PA, Minn, and might even be losing Colorado for real. Ditto New Mexico as a certain loss.
battleoflepanto1571 on October 21, 2008 at 1:38 PM
There’s a chance. I’ve been seeing a lot of McCain/Palin signs next to “Michaud for Congress” signs on lawns. Michaud is the Democrat rep for this district and Maine voters tend to do a lot of cross-party voting.
Slublog on October 21, 2008 at 1:38 PM
unseen on October 21, 2008 at 1:36 PM
I’ve said this b4, but I think it bears repeating. The AOL weekly poll has had McCain winning by a landslide EVERY week since it started. You can only vote once. Over 300,000 votes are cast EVERY week. I cannot believe that only conservatives vote in the AOL poll every week. Sure the race has tighted from McCain 67% to Sen. Gubment 37% a month ago, to Mac 56% Obam 42% and they did just recently add in the third party candidates, but how is it that over 300K people poll every week and overwhelmingly vote McCain and no one notices?
JAM on October 21, 2008 at 1:41 PM
I think the very fact that we have a chance at this point is due to McCain. Fred, Rudy, et all wouldn’t be within 4 on Rasmussen. Some of his more moderate positions make him more palatable to Indies and Dems Light in an anti-GOP year. And this comes from a guy that supported Rudy and Fred in the primary.
amerpundit on October 21, 2008 at 1:42 PM
I’ve been saying all along that the polls in PA are off by a good 5%, but that still puts him behind. But it’s still possible for him to win. He will do very well in western PA, but he’s gotta improve in the big swath from York, Lancaster, Reading, and Allentown-Bethlehem etc. I think he’s been slipping big time here since the banking implosion.
Joe the plumber!
forest on October 21, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Like those exit polls in 2004. They couldn’t have been wrong.
Except nearly every single one of them was.
Slublog on October 21, 2008 at 1:43 PM
maybe AOL has low black and hispanic votes in its poll. i.e. mostly white people?
is interesting that every week mccain is up in it.
jp on October 21, 2008 at 1:43 PM
James Dobson’s Focus on the Family is in CO Springs. Like him or not, he’s got a nationwide daily radio show and mailing list that reaches millions of social conservatives. Not a bad strategy.
jdpaz on October 21, 2008 at 1:44 PM
So, it would it be a tie if McCain takes the gray states and VA and NH?
forest on October 21, 2008 at 1:44 PM
It’s time to pull the Rev Wright card and blast Obama right back to Chicago with his thugs and terrorist buddies.
And where is that API tape on Michelle? Or was that all bogus?
Let’s ROLL!
ex-Democrat on October 21, 2008 at 1:45 PM
and then hope that McCain takes that 1 EV in Maine’s northern district
jp on October 21, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Short of calling for a race war, the Democrats are unlikely to lose Virginia.
Speedwagon82 on October 21, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Fair enough, ACORN is an equal opportunity manipulator but their base remains in one particular demographic.
highhopes on October 21, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Hopefully they’re not placing too much weight on this “evidence”. Pennsylvania could be a briar patch.
Big S on October 21, 2008 at 1:46 PM
JAM on October 21, 2008 at 1:41 PM
I agree. I think McCain could win in a landslide. Obama needed billy joel and bruce to get 100,000 people in MO. Palin needed herself to get 22,000.
the tv ratings for Palin is something that can not be hidden by polls. Palin drew 70million, 14 year high for SNL, her natinal interviews have drew millions. I think something is going on. At the NC state fair there were 9 to 1 McCain supports vs Obama. If the polls were correct you would think it would be closer to 50/50.
unseen on October 21, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Amazing that McCain is deluding himself on PA, yet he was competitive in Michigan and abandoned it, in fact he never even really tried here. Even now he is closer here than he is in PA. Dumb.
echosyst on October 21, 2008 at 1:46 PM
a
Don’t forget gun-owners !!!
stenwin77 on October 21, 2008 at 1:46 PM
jp on October 21, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Could be, I guess. It is always such a huge sample size. It has kept my hope alive week after week!
JAM on October 21, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Go to the American Thinker and read the article about how these polls about who’s in the lead are crap:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/10/polls_obama_or_mccain_is_winni_1.html
and a little rumor stuff from Hillbuzz: http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/
Dear HillBuzz,
> I wanted to pass along something heard Saturday at a community event.
>
> As most of you may know, Zogby International is headquartered in our neck
> of the woods in Utica. I happened to chat with a couple of people who
> work for Zogby and were quite emphatic about the recent 2-3 point Obama
> edge. They said, did not imply, that it’s even closer. The reason?
> Zobgy contractually is required to poll more Democrats than Republicans.
> The folks who passed along this intel are strong supporters of
> McCain-Palin working for the very big Democrat John Zogby. They stressed
> that the Zogby lunch table buzz is that this is a dead heat and right now
> is the time that McCain can win the election.
>
> The “spread the wealth” comment is resonating. I had some women together
> this weekend to make calls, write LTEs and make hand made signs and people
> are really energized. We CAN do this!
Jason, New York
Renwaa on October 21, 2008 at 1:47 PM
“God Damn America” ads NOW! or LOSE!
marklmail on October 21, 2008 at 1:48 PM
I think you are discounting just how liberal Northern Virginia has become. It’s quickly becoming a state that votes like California. Deeply conservative outside the population centers. McCain’s floundering because of all the liberals in Hampton Roads, Northern Virginia, and Richmond. They’ve changed the dynamics of the state.
highhopes on October 21, 2008 at 1:48 PM
First, it merits saying, don’t get discouraged–there will be plenty of time for depression later; AFTER the forces of good lose.
Second, can anyone explain why “internals” are able to be more accurate than “externals”/”non-internals”/whatever they’re called? That makes no sense to me.
ParisParamus on October 21, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Did you all know that you can make phone calls off the McCain site while just sitting at home??? just did…it was fun talking to folks in NC. If all of us do a little bit in our states, we can at least help with some of the leg work. Please help.
Mommypundit on October 21, 2008 at 1:49 PM
BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL
I really think that McCain will win. Its tricky and we are being bluffed by poll weighting and the media.
GO VOTE!
Please review the Big Ten poll and who they are. They have PA, IA tied! Obama by one in OH, WI, by 2 in MN, only 4 in MI, and of course big in IL. McCain has a shot in a lot of these states. These results are from the 9/18 sample with new one due Thursday. I bet that more move toward McCain then!
OSUBuciz1 on October 21, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Why do you tempt me with Kos links even when they seem to be something worth reading? Now I need to clean the blood out of my eyes.
*retches*
Grue in the Attic on October 21, 2008 at 1:49 PM
I mean Pennsylvania.
Speedwagon82 on October 21, 2008 at 1:49 PM
FWIW, on Quinn & Rose today, Carl called in – as he has before -with “inside info” from Republican internal polling. He says the Rep internal polls show McCain =51 and Obama =36 (yes, that is 36).
They have received accurate info like this from him before. I found it hard to believe but… there it is.
stenwin77 on October 21, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Question……
Who believes that there are really that many people out there that haven’t truly decided they’re voting for Obama? Why haven’t they decided yet? Are they waiting to see if he actually can walk on water? I don’t believe there are THAT many people left. You’re either for him or you’re not. People may be upset at GW Bush and will go in and ultimately vote for McCain because they’re afraid of the alternative, but I don’t think there’s anyone left for Obama to persuade.
Oink on October 21, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Yep.
Don’t put much credence in it. I’ve seen right-wing blogs promote it and one Freep link could totally swing the poll. Not to say I put much credence in polls from polling groups, I just don’t think either is the accurate representation of American feelings.
amerpundit on October 21, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Given that their internal polling is more reliable than what we get fed, have you considered his electoral map may look different than yours? What if some of the “toss-ups” are red in his map? What if some of the blue states are toss-ups or red on his? The short answer to all of these are that we get fed polls that are particularly unreliable while they work of something different. To compare what we see campaigns doing with the public polls is to compare apples and oranges.
CC – BHO: “my Muslim faith”
CapedConservative on October 21, 2008 at 1:50 PM
Isn’t that where Frum, Parker and Brooks live? Yeah that is a liberal town.
CanadianGuy on October 21, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Hit ‘em where they ain’t. Fully exploit unexpected opportunities: Murtha may now be in danger of losing one of the most secure Dem districts in Congress. The Palins connect big time in the same bitter clinger areas that swamped BO in the primary. The Gov’s virtually a PUMA.
I had a girlfriend from PA once, so I’m an expert. So, I say, if Mav thinks he’s got a chance, go for it.
But that DOESN’T mean that you can’t continue to hit CO, VA, wherever you think it’s still competitive or potentially competitive. What qualifies Allahpundit to be the George Marshall of Campaign Logistics? I don’t trust his judgment any more than I trust that of any other HotAirian who can put two politically interesting sentences together.
CK MacLeod on October 21, 2008 at 1:53 PM
The Keystone State.
Has a nice ring to it.
How satisfying it would be to watch the news anchors concentrate on the outcome in OH, FL and VA all night long on election eve, only to be blindsided by a McCain victory in PA. 21 whopping EVs.
Rednecks, racists and coal miners, Oh My!
fogw on October 21, 2008 at 1:53 PM
When I say Obama, you say Wright!
V15J on October 21, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Oh, come on!
Chuck Schick on October 21, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Just telling you what they said. It’s a conservative talk show in Toledo. There is an entire thread over at Free Rep. about it with conversation about this particular caller and these numbers.
Not saying it’s right, just telling you about it.
stenwin77 on October 21, 2008 at 1:56 PM
This just reminds me of why the electoral college needs to be replaced with a popular vote count. The candidates are focusing on a couple states as if those states’ votes count far more than other votes in the nation. It’s an insane system in the era of modern communications and airplanes, when candidates have the ability to instantly go from one locale to another and blast their messages into a select number of living rooms.
I don’t live in a swing state and haven’t heard either candidate speak to issues that matter most to people living in my area. And when one candidate wins the election, their focus will need to remain on the promises made to voters in the swing states. It’s a system that just doesn’t work very well and leaves too many people in too many states sitting on the sidelines and watching this race from a distance.
Perhaps when people forget about the 2000 election and stop thinking of this as a partisan issue, attitudes will change. The electoral system isn’t party friendly. It’s just not effective any longer.
bayam on October 21, 2008 at 1:59 PM
I know, but… come on!
Can you link the FR thread for us?
Chuck Schick on October 21, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Worst idea ever…
CC – BHO: “my Muslim faith”
CapedConservative on October 21, 2008 at 2:04 PM
I pick Zogby :). Not that any one really cares.
mycowardice on October 21, 2008 at 2:04 PM
I am not going to second guess the McCain people on this. I am sure they have their own polls that they rely on to tell them what is going on. And to be honest, I trust them to know the truth more than I do most of the media.
I don’t know who will win, but I am not ready to give up yet.
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Abolish the electoral college and the only areas that will mean anything will be the urban areas.
Which means we’ll all get a chance to live in overpopulated, heavily unionized, crime infested areas with terrible public schools that all cost tons of money and graduate less than half of the kids.
No thanks. Urban areas need less influence not more. And I live in a urban area, there’s no way I want the halfwits here in Northern Virginia having any more say in my life than they already do.
NoDonkey on October 21, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Murtha?
Is Lynn Swann out there stumping for McCain, by the way?
Still, you’d think a Republican would learn by now that the Dems can pull out whatever votes they need from the big cities like Philly (and Boston, Chicago, NY…)
Unless McCain plans on sending a few thousand poll watchers into eastern PA, forget it.
reaganaut on October 21, 2008 at 2:06 PM
bayam:
No, the electoral college vote needs to stay. In fact when the founding fathers wrote the Constitution there was no popular vote for either president or Senators.
The electoral college vote is there because we are the United States . The emphasis being on states for a reason.
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Polls have become propaganda. It’s the 300 against the forces of perversion and tyranny all over again.
Ignore the polls, fellow Spartans, come back after voting for McCain, or on your shield.
Hening on October 21, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Don’t forget about the high concentration of perverts and drug users. Seriously, you live in the wrong city!
The impact of urban areas has been overstated in popular votes. If you look at gubernatorial elections (governors), you’ll see that your logic doesn’t exactly apply. How about rural voters in the south or the plain states or in Utah. None of those voters are attracting any attention from the candidates this year. The fact is that the only urban or rural votes who matter in today’s elections are ones who live in swing states. The elected president has no true nation-wide mandate coming into office, and that’s one major reason why our political system is so broken.
bayam on October 21, 2008 at 2:12 PM
First off, Allah, Terry Madonna — while a popular person w/ the Pa. media — is a Democrat hack of the first order… an unsuccessful candidate in Amish country a few years ago.
Second, there are SIX current Dem-held seats in Congress that are in play.
1. Murtha: I’m surprised it’s coming close, because Pa. tends not to toss out long-entrenched incumbents. But he’s such an a$$hat that Bill Russell has a chance. Corruption involving our Dem state House speaker (DeWeese, whose district is in Murtha’s) isn’t going to help Murtha either.
2. Kanjorski: He’s gotten some bad press a little while back over earmarks to his kids’ now-bankrupt business. Lou Barletta made himself a hero w/ his anti-illegal-immigration stand. I think Kanjorski’s a goner.
3. Sestak: The only reason he won is that the Philly media was Page One on allegations against Curt Weldon (allegations that disappeared shortly after the election). The GOP War Board is still strong in Delaware County, the heart of the district. Sestak is in a battle royal against Craig Williams and he may not win.
4. Murphy: The anti-war Iraq vet won because of anti-war sentiment in his New Yorkified district (lots of folks in middle and upper Bucks County commute to the big rotten worm-infested Apple). He’s got a very credible opponent this time around (Tom Manion) in a district that historically was center-right GOP territory.
5. Altmire: He rolled in last time in the anti-GOP tide. Melissa Hart wasn’t unpopular, but she got caught. She’s coming back and can win. Also, Altmire has links to the scandal in the state House (see Murtha).
6. Carney: Another 2006 steamroll beneficiary. That district is historically GOP. Chris Hackett can take him.
There’s enough downticket racket in Pa. to make you think that the state is winnable for McPalin.
either orr on October 21, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Considering the problems we are having counting and verifying the popular vote nationwide on a single day across the country, there’s an argument for keeping the electoral college but going back to having the states pick electors by other means!
CK MacLeod on October 21, 2008 at 2:15 PM
For the life of me, along with the other core messages, I don’t understand why McCain is not dumping the banking problems on Fannie and Freddie and all of their enablers–Frank, Dodd, Water, Meeks, Raines…and Obama.
It’s simple: a vote for Obama grants these people get-out-of-jail-free cards; a vote for McCain gets them drawn and quartered in the town square. People can get their heads around conflicts of interest–Dodd picked his nose on subprime lending while getting a below-market loan, while Barney Frank was biting pillows for a Fannie or Freddie executive. For crying out loud, even The NYT went after Dodd today. I’d put all of their pictures, including Obama’s, on a billboard and name then Public Enemies 1 through whatever number.
BuckeyeSam on October 21, 2008 at 2:21 PM
I live across from the wrong city, Washington DC. Fortunately, it’s such a mess over there, the perverts and the drug users stay over there where they belong – in the Capitol.
Iowa voters haven’t received any attention? Great, now we can scrap this idiotic ethenol program.
Seems to me, swing states are representative.
Utah has such a small population density, what would be the point of campaigning there?
NoDonkey on October 21, 2008 at 2:22 PM
They want “this” Black President.
“They” being the Democrat Party, and most liberals to the right of, say, Newt Gingrich.
Unfortunately this includes most of the MSM who have created an atmosphere of “It’s Over” in favor of Obama.
Their favoritism has been obvious from the beginning, and gdamd trumpeted this week!
Reminds me of the Dems of 2000, & 2004, – on Steroids.
Polls are for suckers.
Randy
williars on October 21, 2008 at 2:27 PM
It’s like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Dave Rywall on October 21, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Early voting opened yeasterday down here in Florida. One guy I work with went and said there was alot of Obama supporters voting, but there was also a good showing of McCain voters.
I just got home from some running around and my 1st stop was the local Republin HQ to get some sings… Well, they we out with the exception of a couple of the plastic yardsigns.. They said if I wanted one to try the Landfill, since many of them were missing from yards and people were coming in for more. They were getting more before the weekend, so I’ll be sure and go back… 2nd stop was the local gunshop to get a lower receiver for an AR15.. Normally this place is empty. There were a 1/2 dozen people in there. Conversations struck up and we were all basically in there for the same reason. To get things in order in case of a gun ban, depending on who won the election. I bet you all can guess who everyone was voting for. :)
Fires1 on October 21, 2008 at 2:29 PM
What do PA residents think about all the voter fraud allegations?. It would infuriate me?
kangjie on October 21, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Why do I have a sudden craving for a Bud Lite?
Slublog on October 21, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Is that what is really requiring two days off? They rearranging Biden’s mouth? Now there’s an ice berg that will sink their ship.
CC – BHO: “my Muslim faith”
CapedConservative on October 21, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Sure, no problem. (didn’t think I could like a FR thread). Here it is.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110973/posts
stenwin77 on October 21, 2008 at 2:34 PM
The reality math hurts you guys deeply, I know.
Dave Rywall on October 21, 2008 at 2:34 PM
McCain will win so you can take off that life jacket.
Hening on October 21, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Former Presidents Al Gore and John Kerry both support how incredibly important polls are two weeks out in an election.
And yes, there will be heavy Dim turnout in early voting. Most don’t have jobs to go to. Let them get it over with now.
Lots of folks on our side who have sat out an election or three will be showing up this time.
And thank you Murtha, you magnificent, vile, ignorant bastard for giving… eh… “rednecks” every incentive to beat a path to the voting booths.
Sugar Land on October 21, 2008 at 2:38 PM
I really don’t see Obambi taking VA and if PA still has any of it’s “Steel Town” backbone they’ll say loud and clear…NO-Bama!!
Of course I really don’t trust any of these polls conducted by the MSM Obamanites, and the fact the left and the in-the-tank media are inflating Obambi’s lead is a clear indication they are scared and desperate…me smells fear in the left!
I’m hoping nd praying for a McCain win so I can sit back and watch (with enjoyment) the many, many nutroot/lefty heads esploding on Nov 5th!
A sidenote here, if McCain does win how long will it take the lefty nutroots to cry foul? I mean considering the polls show THE ONE with such a commanding lead and if THE ONE loses it can only mean (to the left-tard brain that is) that the “rethuglicans” once again stole the election!
I. Can’t. Wait!
Liberty or Death on October 21, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Switching to a popular vote count system would just shift the candidates’ focus to the large population centers. Montana would never see a candidate ever again.
A better system would be for every state to apportion electors the way Maine does. Whoever wins the popular vote in the state gets the two senatorial electors and each house district’s elector goes to the candidate that won that district. Then, you would see Republicans campaigning in rural California while Democrats were running around Texas’ larger cities.
You might occasionally end up with another situation like 2000, but you would force candidates to run truly national campaigns.
Kafir on October 21, 2008 at 2:41 PM
I live in Colorado and we’re a lot more red-blooded than the recent voting would indicate. The State GOP has been terribly inept. They ran Pete Coors, he of the “Coors Twins” and all those gyrating, half-dressed drunken young people. The social conservatives in this state were outraged. Then they ran Bob Beauprez, a drone who couldn’t make a speech to save his life.
They finally gave up and are running Bob Schaffer, a real conservative. Sarah Palin had tens of thousands of people show up for her rally, compared to about 500 for Joe Biden. The conservatives in Colorado are going to show up to vote this year. I think Colorado will go to McCain.
bonnie_ on October 21, 2008 at 2:42 PM
to bayam who wants to abolish the electoral college:
The founding fathers had the same concern we have today, namely in a “general vote”, 4-5 large states (NY, MA, PA, NJ, VA)would “rule the roost” making the other 8-9 states irrelevant.
Sooooooo, if you want to be ruled by the voters in NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, L.A., Detroit, Miami, etc., be my guest. I’d rather live in a country which adheres to the founding fathers’ scheme of things.
alwyr on October 21, 2008 at 2:43 PM
There’s enough downticket racket in Pa. to make you think that the state is winnable for McPalin.
either orr on October 21, 2008 at 2:14 PM
My opinion too. I’m in Monroe County, can’t wait to vote for Barletta.
Jeff on October 21, 2008 at 2:44 PM
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