NYT/CBS re-poll: Obama 54, McCain 41
posted at 9:34 pm on October 20, 2008 by Allahpundit
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
It’s the rare (re-)poll indeed that turns my thoughts to suicide, but lock your knives up tight and try eyeballing this one. Unless I missed something, the one and only positive result for McCain over 15 pages of crosstabs is that he’s still thought of as a superior commander-in-chief. Otherwise, it’s insanity like this:
The sample’s comprised of 476 likely voters whom they interviewed in late September. That poll shook out at 48/43 for The One, but with undecided voters now splitting for Obama 52/36, he leads overall by 13. Why?
How this squares with the fact that most national polls have tightened a bit and now put Maverick within five or six is beyond me. Maybe it’s the fact that the weighted sample favors the Dems by more than 10 points? 38.2 D, 27.3 R, 34.7 I. Or maybe it’s this:
Combine the lopsided Democratic sample with the perceived negativity and no wonder McPalin’s net favorables are in the tank, with McCain down to -9 from +1 a month ago and the ‘Cuda down to -11 from +6. It’s not independents who are killing them — they’re both -1 among that group — it’s Democrats. Both of them have just a nine percent favorable rating among Dems; for comparison, Obama’s and Biden’s ratings among Republicans are 17 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Exit question: What’s the strategy with two weeks left to bring indies back around? Joe the Plumber-palooza? Or is it time to double down on attacks?
Update: Silver lining: In a poll of five key swing states, Rasmussen has him back up again slightly in Florida and Ohio. Dark cloud: He almost certainly needs all five states to win.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: 1 2 3 Next »
Lies!
Vigilante on October 20, 2008 at 9:36 PM
And the band played ‘Believe it if you like’
sonnyspats1 on October 20, 2008 at 9:37 PM
I’m so effing tired of these effing polls conducted by the effing MSM to sway the stupid effing voters.
That is all.
fogw on October 20, 2008 at 9:37 PM
Allah, seriously. You’re like the drunk who goes from bourbon to everclear. You need to put down the bottle and go for a bit of detox. Get out your collection of Kirsten Powers pictures, have a mojito, and watch some old episodes of Firing Line. You’ll be right as rain in three weeks.
This is eating you alive. Allah needs to get back in the house.
MadisonConservative on October 20, 2008 at 9:38 PM
Poll results, what poll?
d1carter on October 20, 2008 at 9:38 PM
Perth-Amboy poll:
McCain 45%
Obama 43%
Barr 1%
Nader .06%
profitsbeard on October 20, 2008 at 9:38 PM
*****NEED OPTIMISM?
http://hedgehogreport.com/
http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com/
the ‘comments’ under hedgehogreport are what is interesting… ‘Polaris’ is a guy that runs the hedgehog thing, just do a search for his name in the comments, basically, some folks there have internals and do this things called “math”, and, well,
The race is a LOT closer than we think.
Right now, Mac is either down 1 or 2, or up 1 or 2….. it’s that much of a ‘tie’ right now.
The polls are TRASH.
Also, read “stolen thunder” from TODAY…
…the ap poll that is being touted?
—had 41% respondents UNEMPLOYED. the real unemployment level is about 6%.
that poll also had 80% urban response, 60% “$50K and under response” (more than 20% off), and doubled the Hispanic intake.
But, oh yeah, the race MUUUUUSTTTT be over, right? Because, yknow, all these polls with 41% of america jobless (that’d be 130 MILLION people, alex) are “SO ACCURATE”
My money says McCain down 1 right now, but climbing.
McCain will win.
__________
here’s a “real” (read: NOT CRAPPILY WEIGHTED) poll, the BigTen Poll:
Question 15
If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, and John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, for whom would you vote?
N=608 100%
Obama/Biden 259 42.6%
McCain/Palin 253 41.6%
Other 5 .8%
Undecided 68 11.2%
Refused 23 3.9%
Question 15a
If undecided, which way do you lean?
N=91 100%
Obama/Biden 15 16.2%
McCain/Palin 18 20.0%
Undecided 42 46.0%
Refused 16 17.8%
BigTen poll….
***in PENNSYLVANIA.***
Believe.
Rely on StolenThunder & HedgehogReport.
The ***STRATEGY*** of Rahm Emmanuel & Chuck Schumer is:
1. get biased polls to blow up “OBAMA” lead
2. create “LANDSLIDE” narrative
3. depress GOP turnout
but… it’s not working… (see 20K at palin rally in NORTH virginia)
PLEASE don’t give up hope.
read Stolen Thunder & HedgehogReport (comment sections) EVERY DAY.
MAC IS EITHER -2, -1, 0, +1, or +2. DON’T FALL FOR THE DNC STRATEGY!!!!!!!!
battleoflepanto1571 on October 20, 2008 at 9:39 PM
CanadianGuy on October 20, 2008 at 9:39 PM
I question ANYTHING the NYT or CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, MSNBC and Fox are involved in. Thow WaPo in there too. I just don’t think they have an unskewed bone in their polling bodies. FAIL!
JAM on October 20, 2008 at 9:40 PM
I concur on the mojito. I’m having one right now. I cheated. Didn’t make it fresh but bought the bottle at Sam’s Club.
wise_man on October 20, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Why are we paying attention to NY slime and communist broadcast network “polls”?
Darth Executor on October 20, 2008 at 9:41 PM
Rough day……….
Bad Polls, the Sox lost, National Lynyrd Skynyrd Plane Crash Rememberance Day, the Powell crap, and that math test I took earlier………ug.
eski502 on October 20, 2008 at 9:41 PM
Good evening. If the election were held tonight, would you vote for that young, dashing paragon of hope and change, Barack Obama, or that pathetic old liar Whatsisname McCain and his goofy, incompetent Barbie-doll running mate?
whitetop on October 20, 2008 at 9:42 PM
Dude. They’re not even hiding their attempt to deceive anymore.
amerpundit on October 20, 2008 at 9:42 PM
*YAWN*
As usual, heavily weighted to the left, perhaps even mixing some in with the undecideds; althought I couldn’t prove it…
More propaganda designed to crush McCain voters, and possibly woo some bandwagon-lovin’ free agents…
I hope this backfires on them, and gives cause to some of the Rock the Vote bunch to keep on suckin’ on the bong and passin’ around the friends with benefits in an all day horizontal mambo O! fest…
By the way, you can be sure that those friends with benefits are surely, you know, femenists…
RocketmanBob on October 20, 2008 at 9:42 PM
McCain cant articulate….how are the masses of asses supposed to figure this crap out on their own?
Neither can Sarah.
Roger Waters on October 20, 2008 at 9:42 PM
SeeBS and the Times?
No thanks. I prefer honest news outlets and pollsters.
JammieWearingFool on October 20, 2008 at 9:42 PM
NICKELODEON ‘KIDS VOTE’… Obama 51% (1,167,087), McCain 49% (1,129,945)…
“The old guy reminds us of Grandpa, and we don’t read The Times”
Marcus on October 20, 2008 at 9:42 PM
CapedConservative Poll:
McCain – 100%
Obama – 0%
There… an honest poll with no agenda. Just a mildly skewed sample.
CC – BHO: “my Muslim faith”
CapedConservative on October 20, 2008 at 9:43 PM
Election day. The only “polls” that matter.
JetBoy on October 20, 2008 at 9:43 PM
In my state, many if not most registered Democrats vote Republican in the national elections. I suspect a lot of southern states are this way.
Renae on October 20, 2008 at 9:43 PM
Linda Ellerby’s still involved with indoctrinating the kids along with PBS I see.
wise_man on October 20, 2008 at 9:44 PM
…… racist.
wise_man on October 20, 2008 at 9:45 PM
This campaign is over……..
p.s. RIP Ronnie Van Zant, 31 years ago today
eski502 on October 20, 2008 at 9:45 PM
LATIMES/NBC Poll
Obama 56%
McCain 41%
I just made that up. It has as much relevance as the NYT/CBS poll.
carbon_footprint on October 20, 2008 at 9:46 PM
tons of weighted polls like this, they did this with Bush approval numbers starting in 2005 and into 2006 where they had bogus polls to show his approvals lower than they really where then lead with big Headline stories from the results. It popularized the notion of turning on bush, by reporting the, at the time, Lie that “40% approval” then 35% approval and so on. They used the same type of weighting in those polls back then, and IT WORKED. I’m sure they figure than can help create the perception of “It’s Okay to vote for Obama, look at the polls everyone else is…”
jp on October 20, 2008 at 9:47 PM
You sir, are quite gifted. I see a bright career ahead for you in the press conducting polls for presidential elections.
wise_man on October 20, 2008 at 9:47 PM
A two-point win for Obama isn’t bad amongst kids and teens. I thought it’d be Obama in a landslide. Maybe we’ve got a good generation coming up here.
amerpundit on October 20, 2008 at 9:48 PM
This isn’t a poll………………. it’s propaganda.
…….. The left is getting nervous, and this is their sweat. Anyone who reads or listens to anything that the MSM has to say needs to hang out at Allahpundit’s house.
Just look at how they went after “Joe the Plumber”, personal attack, not any merit to the question he asked or the answer Obama gave. Just like Gov. Palin, President Bush for the past eight years, and especially the war……
………… and now a new poll?
The only thing this parchment is good for is to wipe clean an orifice of my body that expels stinky things……
Seven Percent Solution on October 20, 2008 at 9:49 PM
Why is it that these national polls by news organizations always seem to have a spread two times or more as large as those of the daily tracking polls? The current RCP average is 5.8.
Mark1971 on October 20, 2008 at 9:49 PM
How many Dummiecrats did they survey?
I seem to remember that the last time a NYT/CBS poll came out it was heavily skewed.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 20, 2008 at 9:49 PM
Once again the loathsome power of the biased media is confirmed.
Speakup on October 20, 2008 at 9:49 PM
AP, why are you believe of these polls? These horribly inaccurate polls?
TwinkietheKid on October 20, 2008 at 9:49 PM
Oh, for cripessake Allah, please. Spare us this stupidity.
ManlyRash on October 20, 2008 at 9:49 PM
Linda Ellerby’s still involved with indoctrinating the kids along with PBS I see.
1,129,945 see through her BS, the little racists.
Marcus on October 20, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Yeah, and Reagan was supposed to lose to Mondale, too.
Not that McCain is Reagan. But poll-hysteria is never healthy. It’s not cool to acknowledge that you don’t like Obama, and given that the pool is necessarily limited, I’m hopeful.
Cure for the common cold!
emailnuevo on October 20, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Why do you believe? Pardon my bad grammar/typing skills.
TwinkietheKid on October 20, 2008 at 9:50 PM
You scared the crap out of me just there. I saw my name, and then right below that I saw ’something‘pundit.’ don’t do that again. *takes another drink of my moe-hee-toe.* Don’t do that.
wise_man on October 20, 2008 at 9:50 PM
I just ignore these polls as I know they are all slanted for Obamba they are just trying to demoralize the Republicans so don’t let them
Bullhead on October 20, 2008 at 9:50 PM
HotAir Favorite Blogger Poll:
Allah 1%
Ed 99%
Just made that one up too.
; P
carbon_footprint on October 20, 2008 at 9:50 PM
In 2004 Nick vote was…
kerry 57%
bush 43%
spypeach on October 20, 2008 at 9:51 PM
Take it easy….it’s just a poll.
JetBoy on October 20, 2008 at 9:51 PM
Why would Hot Air highlight such NYT/CBS nonsense? They are so skewed every time. why dignify such polls?
Birdseye on October 20, 2008 at 9:51 PM
Small sample size, dem overweight, repeat poll(self selection bias)
He needs to articulate first… this campaign is seems completely rattled and tone deaf though… it’s almost like they don’t know how rhetoric works… too much rah rah sentimentalist demagoguery and little explaining, reasoning, and visioning…
ninjapirate on October 20, 2008 at 9:51 PM
The problem is that the “attacks” are not really attacks. They are explanations of Obama’s past that the mass media has refused to explain to the American people.
So these poll questions’ premise is bogus.
Also, the weighting is bogus as well, considering we have no idea what the registration breakdown across the country is, considering there is so much voter registration fraud.
And finally, we all know the mass media takes polls in order to push a narrative. In this case, the narrative is to try to scare the McCain campaign into stopping their “attacks” on Obama. In other words, they are trying to get the McCain campaign to stop explaining about Obama’s radical background. “See! American’s don’t like you “attacking” Obama. It polls poorly, so you better stop it!” When, in fact, the mass media knows the “attacks” are working. Thus, push a poll out there saying they are not to scare McCain into stopping. It’s just another version of the “racist” defense. Scare the person into shutting up by accusing them of racism for anything they say about Obama.
So, all that said, the McCain campaign and his supporters should just stop paying attention to polls and focus on one big message the last two weeks: Obama is a socialist based on (1) “spread the wealth around” and (2) all his socialist buddies during his entire political career. McCain and Palin can push (1) and their supporters (us) should put (1) and (2).
So… enough already with the frucking polls. Focus.
Michael in MI on October 20, 2008 at 9:53 PM
Amazing
echosyst on October 20, 2008 at 9:54 PM
seriously…..how utterly MTV stupid do you have to be to think McCain is more likely to raise your taxes?????
UGH the dumbing down of America is complete on November 4th 2008!
SDarchitect on October 20, 2008 at 9:55 PM
Exactly. And really, who cares what polls say. What did the polls say in 2007 about the war effort? It was doomed. How’d that turn out?
Ignore the frucking polls and focus on the message. The mass media is nothing more than Tokyo Rose trying to demoralize Republican voters. Ignore them. Focus.
Michael in MI on October 20, 2008 at 9:56 PM
Yes. It is. I’ll be sending my congratulations to President McCain on November 5.
Guardian on October 20, 2008 at 9:56 PM
I’d expect better results for Obama considering they only polled newsrooms.
Why do you continue to publish this garbage?
TheBigOldDog on October 20, 2008 at 9:57 PM
the only silver lining???? Lull the lazy liberal sloths into thinking their vote is not needed……bet the tax paying Republicans will vote on the way to work….not a problem with the socialist fans….
SDarchitect on October 20, 2008 at 9:57 PM
Ah…sorry. Those last 45 votes came from me yesterday morning.
I sat in front of my ‘puder for 1/2 hour drinking my coffee and clicking on the “Vote for McCain” button at their site.
Just trying to do my bit and even out the lefties score a little.
Over.
1GooDDaDDy on October 20, 2008 at 9:57 PM
1GooDDaDDy on October 20, 2008 at 9:57 PM
“The old guy reminds us of Grandpa, and we don’t read The Times”
I was quoting YOU.
Marcus on October 20, 2008 at 9:59 PM
All the other polls show tightening. Please. Epic failure.
SouthernGent on October 20, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Don’t take it too seriously. CBS is the network of Dan Rather. And NYT has been working to defeat McCain since he got the nomination.
Cicero43 on October 20, 2008 at 10:01 PM
This is exactly what any rational person would expect. Those that worship at the feet of Obama are incapable of critical analysis, though or actions. Come the morning of 11/05/08 we will awake to the all to sobering reality that our futures and fortunes ride on a trifecta bet placed at Wonderland.
All hail the death of America!
dmann on October 20, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Those left behind at the re-education camp will be glad to hear it………….. keep up the good work.
Seven Percent Solution on October 20, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Sen. Obama may win. It looks better for him than Sen. McCain. However, there is no way that Democrats will turn out at a 10% higher level than Republicans. That just isn’t going to happen. It will be closer than this poll suggests no matter who wins.
Jill1066 on October 20, 2008 at 10:02 PM
Careful..I am very sensitive about my gray hair.
Over.
1GooDDaDDy on October 20, 2008 at 10:05 PM
As of this moment according to Rassmussen McCain is 49% to Obama’s 47% in Ohio. I’ll start paying attention to figures after the votes have been cast and are being counted. Let’s hope ACORN can’t do too much damage with voter fraud. This has been a long, ugly year of politics.
UnEasyRider on October 20, 2008 at 10:09 PM
I usually scoff at the idea that Allahpundit intentionally posts dour topics, but really, a rehash of a poll from interviews in late September? How is one month old polling data relevant to today?
BryanS on October 20, 2008 at 10:10 PM
Who the hell votes based on campaign negativity? If McCain doesn’t smile enough, it makes people want socialism? No wonder Obama is leading. They surveyed his base – stupid people.
Ronnie on October 20, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Post of the day!
Btw, it’s kinda funny. I wouldn’t even know about these biased polls if not for HA…..I don’t watch that crap CBS anymore.
No let up! Let’s make HISTORY on November 4th!
LET’S ROLL!
ex-Democrat on October 20, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Funny how every time the more credible polls show the race tightening, the lib MSM comes out with another skewed over the top poll that shows the opposite…
It ain’t gonna work.
We are in this and they know it.
joepub on October 20, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Ace has a good article to counter this:
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/276120.php
Enoxo on October 20, 2008 at 10:12 PM
NYT/CBS Poll Margin of error 50%
diogenes on October 20, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Socialist.
Socializzle.
Mojave Mark on October 20, 2008 at 10:12 PM
You really do enjoy what you do to these poor, poor, poll sectarians don’t ya?
You are GOD!
/sarc
csdeven on October 20, 2008 at 10:14 PM
OK Mac or 527s or whatever….pull out EVERYTHING from here until the end….
…I wanna see Rev Wright and Odinga front and center.
THIS IS NO TIME FOR GOING WOBBLY MAC….let’s roll!
ex-Democrat on October 20, 2008 at 10:14 PM
I`m going to trust a poll done by the New York Times and CBS………….And I`m also going to do something just as unlikely. (late at night, too tired to be creative)
and might I ad………Damnit. :(
ThePrez on October 20, 2008 at 10:14 PM
NYT/CBS Poll Margin of Believability 0%
fogw on October 20, 2008 at 10:14 PM
I sent in my absentee ballot today (appropriately with an Arizona flag stamp), so I did my bit to make sure Virginia goes red! Speaking of which, I noticed A LOT of McCain/Palin signs in NoVa, and I do not remember seeing many Bush/Cheney signs in ‘04. So I wouldn’t count on Virginia going blue just yet.
Yossarian on October 20, 2008 at 10:14 PM
Can’t you just see it…………?
Voting Day, November 4, 2008:
vs
Seven Percent Solution on October 20, 2008 at 10:15 PM
Mac must win, he will win.
Biden’s comments as well as listening to Beck’s take on it tonight are giving me the creeps.
Bishop on October 20, 2008 at 10:15 PM
Yossarian on October 20, 2008 at 10:14 PM
We have a sign war going on here in Minnesota, sub and exurbs hard to Mac while the inner city that I often travel through are pure Odummy; Minnesota will probably go blue though.
Bishop on October 20, 2008 at 10:17 PM
The kangjie poll has it 100 to 0 Mccain
I asked this question
To 3 Hillary Deomocrats(my sisters)
Does Obama suck?
3 yes and 0 no
Does Michelle Obama scare you more than Obama?
again
3 yes 0 no
kangjie on October 20, 2008 at 10:17 PM
Only A Fool Would Take Him At His Word
Suppose I told you, over the course of several months, more than thirty things that I believe in and will work for, and then throughout the next few months take the exact opposite position regarding every one of them. Would you ever again trust me to keep my word on anything?
Obama has flip-flopped on more than thirty issues, but he wants us to trust him when he says he won’t raise taxes on most of us, even though he has voted for the vast majority of the tax increases he’s encountered, and he’s voted against most tax cuts. He wants us to trust him that he’ll govern as a centrist, even though his entire career has been extreme left-wing (the non-partisan National Journal citied Obama as the Senate’s most liberal member).
I remember doubting Governor Bill Clinton when he repeatedly promised America a middle-class tax cut, and I remember his excuses for not delivering it. Clinton was never the liberal extremist that Obama has been–and I am convinced still is.
Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
jgapinoy on October 20, 2008 at 10:18 PM
NTY/C-BS Poll? Seriously? You’re really quoting that?
Why? Seriously, why quote that?
aquaviva on October 20, 2008 at 10:18 PM
Possibly the most pointless post evah.
I’d rather read the opinion of some guy that writes
*eats*
after every thought in his head.
Dorvillian on October 20, 2008 at 10:19 PM
Can I use a lifeline?
csdeven on October 20, 2008 at 10:19 PM
…And I’m still voting for McCain…….
FiveWays on October 20, 2008 at 10:22 PM
These polls are lies intended to discourage conservatives and Republicans from voting.
You must understand what we are dealing with in the mainstream media. They are aiding and abetting a socialist takeover of the country. They are scum.
Phil Byler on October 20, 2008 at 10:23 PM
I agree with seven percent, these are nothing but propaganda. I stopped paying attention to the polls about 2 weeks ago.
4shoes on October 20, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Easy. He finds it interesting. That’s the sole requirement, and it’s a followup from the first post on the poll. Regardless, at the end of this cycle you will have a very good grasp of which polls are worthy of note and which are manufactured. I tend to think NYT/CBS falls in that category.
Spirit of 1776 on October 20, 2008 at 10:25 PM
Ignore polls.
But speaking of polls, do any of you have a subscription to Military Times? If you follow the link from Hillbuzz, you’ll see a pdf file showing presidential preferences for people in the armed services… but I can’t find the supporting document explaining the poll.
Results are not surprising: overwhelmingly for McCain, regardless of race.
Y-not on October 20, 2008 at 10:25 PM
It can’t be emphasized strongly enough that re-polls are considered garbage by most real pollsters, as least as far as the issue of opinion sampling goes.
The sample is considered to be polluted – not just by the fact of having been polled, but also by the questionnaires and any and all interview biases. There’s a good chance they are also familiar with the poll’s previous results, and are much more likely to give the expected answer. Psychologically, the individual polled is temporarily a celebrity decider and pundit, and wonders after the phone call is over whether to call up Brad Pitt to see how the ONE campaign is going.
That’s before you consider weighting, MOE, and less apparent biases. You have to consider further that a poll that “randomly” reaches an unrealistically high Dem weighting is also likely to be “randomly” reaching a higher Dem-leaning Independent and left-leaning Republican sample.
I find it hard to believe that Allahpundit is as impressed with this kind of stuff as he pretends to be.
CK MacLeod on October 20, 2008 at 10:25 PM
another poll…awesome
DarkeningCloud on October 20, 2008 at 10:26 PM
The poll is laughable.
Also, why is no one discussing New Hampshire? McCain and Palin have campaigned there. Obama came to the state…why? Isn’t it a no brainer that Obama should win that state? As well as Pennsylvania?
Someone is trying to hide something…
jencab on October 20, 2008 at 10:27 PM
Well then, Obama is in real trouble because I spent an hour clicking the Obama selection to try to make a good negative McCain poll for AP to post…
CC – BHO: “my Muslim faith”
CapedConservative on October 20, 2008 at 10:28 PM
Geez, all one needs to sink into eternal despair is a box of razor blades, a Leonard Cohen album, a dram of cognac…and another downer Allahpundit poll.
I prefer the Manly Rash outlook.
onlineanalyst on October 20, 2008 at 10:28 PM
Don’t give up. Keep up the fight!
mindhacker on October 20, 2008 at 10:28 PM
You sly devil, you.
wise_man on October 20, 2008 at 10:30 PM
Big Deal.
The poll data was from late September – pre “Joe the Plumber” pre third debate.
MSM polls are always skewed this way. My phone HAS NEVER RUNG for a poll. Why? Maybe I’m not the kind of response they want.
Other than making phone calls and getting a yard sign, you’ve got to relax.
heypally on October 20, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Yeah, this is ridiculous. CBS-NYT polls like this should have zero credibility.
CP on October 20, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Consider the source. This poll was taken at a tea-and-watercress-sandwiches party thrown by Christo Buckley and Maureen Dowdy.
MrScribbler on October 20, 2008 at 10:33 PM
Kerry won on the last Nick Kid’s Vote. I saw it on Drudge Archives on Drudge Report.
Shows you the young people don’t know much.
Polls are stupid!
jencab on October 20, 2008 at 10:33 PM
What do you guys think of the fact that early voting is very heavy. Would this be bad for McCain given that it is probably mostly driven by Obama’s GOTV and that right now, no matter how you look at the polls, it is hard not to conclude that Obama is currently ahead? I believe the polls will tighten up, but will it be too late if most people vote early?
neuquenguy on October 20, 2008 at 10:36 PM
If ever theres been a push poll you know its here. As much as I think all polls are complete crap I’ll take Zogby, Ras and gallup anyday over NYT/CBS (Really? Don’t they have the Biden/ Dodd polling company doing these polls yet?)
Rbastid on October 20, 2008 at 10:36 PM
This has been repeated a few times, but Allah, here is my ‘flyover country’ take on this.
The drive-bys have figured out, that everyone watches RCP since it is a composite. The only way to influence RCP is with skewered weighted samples, and outcome based polling. In other words, with all due respect to NYT/CBS, they know they are in the tank, so might as well be in the tank all the way and since we are paying the money for the poll, we want a poll with this outcome. It is called “nuancing the numbers.”
Is this calling into question the ethics of their polling? Sure. Statistically you cannot get this wide a variance between polls. It is impossible. Either they are the only ones who are right, or they are being statistically dishonest.
It is all about RCP. Throw out the last 14+ poll yesterday and all of a sudden the RCP tightens. We cannot have that……the republican base might just turn out.
I would quit giving them the time of day. They simply enjoy reading about the angst they cause and laughs they get at the water cooler.
Imagine for a moment if a poll came out with McCain +4. That pollster would be subject to another ‘plunging the plumber’.
Starlink on October 20, 2008 at 10:37 PM
I don’t know about any of you but I”d tell any pollster calling me to go F themselves (Rasmussen I’d politely decline though). I expect many here would do the same.
Before his infamous crisis comments here in Seattle the other day, Biden had an event with our crat governor. He said she was a great gov already bringing the kind of change to WA that Barry & Joe will brng to the country. She’s increased spending 33%, raised our gas taxes and we now face an estimated 3 billion dollar deficit next year. THat’s the change we need!
O/T but on the off chance these bs polls are more accurate than we think, what is everyone drinking on election night? I’ll be having something with my vodka and/or rum.
hump1201 on October 20, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Comment pages: 1 2 3 Next »