NYT/CBS re-poll: Obama 54, McCain 41
posted at 9:34 pm on October 20, 2008 by Allahpundit
It’s the rare (re-)poll indeed that turns my thoughts to suicide, but lock your knives up tight and try eyeballing this one. Unless I missed something, the one and only positive result for McCain over 15 pages of crosstabs is that he’s still thought of as a superior commander-in-chief. Otherwise, it’s insanity like this:
The sample’s comprised of 476 likely voters whom they interviewed in late September. That poll shook out at 48/43 for The One, but with undecided voters now splitting for Obama 52/36, he leads overall by 13. Why?
How this squares with the fact that most national polls have tightened a bit and now put Maverick within five or six is beyond me. Maybe it’s the fact that the weighted sample favors the Dems by more than 10 points? 38.2 D, 27.3 R, 34.7 I. Or maybe it’s this:
Combine the lopsided Democratic sample with the perceived negativity and no wonder McPalin’s net favorables are in the tank, with McCain down to -9 from +1 a month ago and the ‘Cuda down to -11 from +6. It’s not independents who are killing them — they’re both -1 among that group — it’s Democrats. Both of them have just a nine percent favorable rating among Dems; for comparison, Obama’s and Biden’s ratings among Republicans are 17 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Exit question: What’s the strategy with two weeks left to bring indies back around? Joe the Plumber-palooza? Or is it time to double down on attacks?
Update: Silver lining: In a poll of five key swing states, Rasmussen has him back up again slightly in Florida and Ohio. Dark cloud: He almost certainly needs all five states to win.
Blowback
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An interesting debate that I will have to leave for another day, but I think those issues are really interesting and pertinent. I obviously don’t agree, but those are decisions we should all participate it.
And on a side note, JTP is in my team for welfare, because he said he was ok with some (if not all) of it.
mycowardice on October 21, 2008 at 1:28 AM
Where is the PINKO Borg?
mycowardice on October 21, 2008 at 1:29 AM
I wish the press in general would learn more about statistics and analysis than whatever it is they supposedly learned in journalism school. First, you have sampling error, which is only a function of sample size and represents the best level of confidence one could ever have with that sample size.
In true statistical fashion, one could repeat the same procedure and be within that margin of error 95%+ of the time.
Then there is systemic error. This type of error has to do with the design of your samplings methods and procedures. All the polling companies (almost all) manipulate the data they collect according to their “model”. This is the point in polling where I can get any result you pay me to get. Once they manipulate their data and put in assumptions, those error margins become entirely meaningless. Systemic errors can be larger than the margin of sampling error.
The true error is the sampling error plus whatever error is introduced by the methods used (systemic error). The systemic error is not measurable–until polling day that is.
Journalists are extraordinarily uninformed about the basics of experiment, measurement, and sampling. Considering it is such a large topic in their jobs, one would think they should know such basics.
BryanS on October 21, 2008 at 1:31 AM
Amen! I’m moving to “flyover country”. That way, I can live with decent folks and the leer jet liberals will fly over, and I won’t have to deal with them any more. (Channeling Cartman) I hate hippies!
Laura in Maryland on October 21, 2008 at 1:31 AM
If you have to ask, then you’ve already been assimilated.
Laura in Maryland on October 21, 2008 at 1:32 AM
One saw the beginnings of liberals regretting pushing everything to the federal level when the Big Government “Conservatives” were in charge during the Bush years. But alas, the libs win out when we try to to be conservative on the national level–we conceded the argument that education for instance is a national issue (No Child Left Behind). When the pendulum ultimately swings the other way, the libs can entrench their priorities for generations to come.
BryanS on October 21, 2008 at 1:39 AM
Barack
Obama
Religous
Goon
B.O.R.G.
Question: Since these are “weighted” polls, they are weighted based on voter registration. How do you think hundreds of thousands of fake ACORN registrations for democrats affect the result of these polls?
kurtzz3 on October 21, 2008 at 1:39 AM
Great question! One that should be asked elsewhere–imagine 200,000 fake registrations in Ohio all in urban (read big Obama vote) areas. There’s a few percentage points right there! (about 4-5 % of all votes cast in 2004)
BryanS on October 21, 2008 at 1:47 AM
“In theory, exit polls should match election results. But for all the care that goes into conducting accurate exit polls, errant results aren’t completely uncommon. Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during the Democratic primaries this year, preliminary exit polls overestimated Obama’s strength in 18 of 20 states, by an average error of 7 percentage points, based on leaked early results.
The reason? Obama’s supporters were younger, better educated and often more enthusiastic than Hillary Clinton’s, meaning they were more likely to participate in exit polls.” posted here, http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/
SayWhat on October 21, 2008 at 2:00 AM
To all those RINO idiots who thought that they could win an election by running a liberal non republican who constantly told conservatives to pack sand, “Hows that workin for ya now?”
Bikerken on October 21, 2008 at 2:23 AM
Full-blown McCain-derangement…
Biker, why don’t you stop for a sec, and read what you wrote there again. Oh, the irony and the hypocrisy.
JetBoy on October 21, 2008 at 4:24 AM
battleoflepanto1571 on October 20, 2008 at 9:39 PM:
Your comment needs to be placed on every thread. John McCain needs to announce to the nation NOT to believe the MSM poll results. He needs to counter the efforts of the MSM to portray the election as over. He needs to offer alternative information. He needs to speak over the heads of the media to the citizens of the battleground states.
HE NEEDS TO STATE IT PUBLICLY. HE OWES ALL OF US THAT MUCH!
Colin Powell was the last thing Obama had to drive his opposition into despair. I agree with those who believe Powell’s statement was delayed til now to be used to make it seem like the governing establishment was calling the election for Obama.
These are all calculated actions to make the Republicans feel hopeless.
BEAT THE LYING MEDIA! DON’T FALL FOR THEIR TRICKS! CALL THEIR BLUFF!
HERE’S OUR CHANCE TO DESTROY THE DEMOCRATS AND THE MEDIA AND SOROS AND INTERNATIONAL SOCIALISM IN ONE FELL SWOOP. DON’T WAVER! DON’T GIVE UP!
Both of you are terrific.
Lepanto–tks for the excellent links to hedgehogreport.com. I wish I had known about it sooner.
Limerick–you single-handedly restored some of my faith. I was beginning to wonder who my fellow Americans really are. Thank you.
JiangxiDad on October 21, 2008 at 4:50 AM
Wow, I’m always amazed at the pessimism that Hot Air likes to pass around.
To just present this poll without an analysis of the internals is a disservice to the base. If that is not done then the poster of this information is simply doing what the other side intended to do – depress the base.
True_King on October 21, 2008 at 6:15 AM
Deceitful propaganda is in the radical socialist’s playbook. This poll and others are deceitful propaganda.
Phil Byler on October 21, 2008 at 6:27 AM
Do not be discouraged. This is done to suppress voter turn out for McCain-Palin voters.
McCain-Palin is going to win. Just watch.
Phil Byler on October 21, 2008 at 6:29 AM
You still insist on giving cbs/ny times credibility despite their history of trying to dishonestly and illegally affect the result in this campaign and last. Amazing.
I miss Brian.
peacenprosperity on October 21, 2008 at 6:40 AM
I am not going to read all these comments, but I have to say that I think this poll is suspect to say the least.
One thing I did notice if it is true, the calls to McCain to get serious and fight Obama have backfired big time. The voters do not seem to like the attack ads on Ayers or Wright or any of that.
And I doubt if this kind of poll makes Allah or MM suicidal. In fact, I think they are both fantasizing about the fun they will have attacking McCain, blaming McCain etc when and if he loses the election.
Not to mention the years of fun they will have attacking the new Democrat in the White House.
What is not to like? Right?
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 6:44 AM
BikerKen:
Here you are. I wondered what happened to you after AJ threw you out of Strata-Sphere.
This is one of those people who thought someone like Ron Paul could beat Obama. Hell, Ron Paul could not beat McCain. Or Huckabee. Or Romney.
This is not a time to blame RINOs, you need all the help you can get. I realize that people like you think that alienating voters, running people off and doing your best to turn the Republican party into a fringe group of far right loons is the way to go, but I would say that the opposite is true.
I would say that people like you have hurt the Republican party and made it possible for people like Obama to look almost mainstream.
Way to go Bikerken.
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 6:51 AM
You didn’t miss anything that isn’t said in EVERY OTHER poll thread.
csdeven on October 21, 2008 at 6:52 AM
csdvdn:
That does not surprise me, by the way, exactly what is a re-poll? As in repeat? Retreat? Rehash?
I am not saying McCain has a big lead, but I think this is such an outlier that it should embarrass NYT/CBS to put it out there and Allah to repeat it.
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 7:12 AM
Obama is called out.
csdeven on October 21, 2008 at 7:14 AM
I have no idea what a re-poll is. It sounds like someone was too lazy to poll again. But I suspect it is probably as inaccurate as any other poll is.
csdeven on October 21, 2008 at 7:19 AM
NYT/CBS re-poll…All you need to know before disregarding the results…
golfer1 on October 21, 2008 at 7:44 AM
yeah and what does Obama say after his speech for early voters standing there? ‘ok everybody lets just go in and vote’. He knows exactly what he’s doing. His visiting an ailing grandmother all of the sudden is a tad strange. Does anyone even know if she’s ailing? Maybe McCain can spare some of those diapers to get her through? I always did think that was a stupid remark. This guy is a sneak and a creep.
johnnyU on October 21, 2008 at 7:51 AM
Just another Obama-con job from the drive by media.
BTW, did the media ever find out what was accomplished by the CAC where the terrorist and the Naive One gave away millions? Any results, other than funding leftists?
I know Joe the Plumber has a tax lien … And Obama has a drug dealer, but we never got to find out who the drug dealer was.
Now OBiden says the world will blow up,shortly after we elect the Naive One, but you just have to man it out when the Naive One’s poll number plummet and the world is on fire. Comforting that Powell knows what race he is.
tarpon on October 21, 2008 at 7:54 AM
What can half a billion dollars buy?
The Presidency of the United States of America
Obama has spent OVER $600MILLION!
Obama has bought all the advertising time available.
Where is the equal time FAIRNESS DOCTRINE in this POTUS campaign being bought and paid for by proponents of Marxism?
maverick muse on October 21, 2008 at 8:17 AM
If as Newt says, Powell brings Obama “the experience” then Biden’s “Obama’s gonna fail ’cause he’s a newby” monopoly on “Obama’s source of experience” just got busted and Biden sang like a bird.
maverick muse on October 21, 2008 at 8:20 AM
A con job that reminds me of the furniture commercial where the couple says they saved $30,000 on a living room set by shopping through this direct purchase plan thing. OMG! $30,000?! LOL. yes, numbers can be thrown all over.
oh I guess Powell will be the Secretary of Defense. This is going to be sickening at best. Hillary is getting a job too so lets see, what would that piece of work be good at? hmmm she’s been through most everything she could get her hands in. I dont know if there’s a slot for Lead WHite Woman. Ahh yes there is… Supreme Court. ahhh I think I get it now. Its coming folks…. got your popcorn yet?
johnnyU on October 21, 2008 at 8:21 AM
I guess Soros and company have bought the POTUS.
neuquenguy on October 21, 2008 at 8:41 AM
I think the last election taught people about these supposed polls.
JeffinSac on October 21, 2008 at 9:05 AM
We’re in the middle of a big election, an election that may well help decide the future of America. Which is why we all need to calm down a whole lot.
That may sound paradoxical but it isn’t. The crucial thing in any fight is to keep a clear head. By contrast an emotional seesaw does nothing but wastefully drain your energy while cultivating chaos. Which means that declaring that the battle is already lost, haranguing the McCain campaign and behaving hysterically is the worst possible thing to do.
The left went into this election with a plan and they are close to achieving their goals. The right went into this election haphazardly and has just barely managed to sort of unite around the nominated candidate.
Hilts on October 21, 2008 at 9:07 AM
Good evening. If the election were held tonight, would you vote for that young, dashing paragon of hope and change, Barack Obama, or that pathetic old liar Whatsisname McCain and his goofy, incompetent Barbie-doll running mate?
whitetop on October 20, 2008 at 9:42 PM
Even though the devil is always portrayed as an ugly monster, the true is Satan was the most beautiful angel in heaven. Thus I put my money on the old guy and Barbie doll. I never trust guys that are in love with themselves.
pukara61 on October 21, 2008 at 9:17 AM
What does one do when Emmanuel and Schumer are working in collusion with the media?
drjohn on October 21, 2008 at 9:21 AM
We all know the only reason they put this horse squeeze out there was the Rasmussen and other polls showing gains by McCain. These are push polls and there ought to be laws against them. I declare, and so have many hundreds of thousands of others, war on the MSM. They are getting the heat at the McCain and Palin rallys and we need to give it to them whenever and wherever we can.
wepeople on October 21, 2008 at 9:33 AM
AP,
The CBS polls have jumped all over the place this election season. The internals in this poll are bizarre as were the internals in the Newsweek poll. Stop putting them up because all you do is discourage people. Rasmussen and IBD are the only reliable polls out there, not Zogby, Newsweek or CBS/NYT.
I was reading the Wapo daily tracking poll and one question asked respondents if this was the first time they’d be voting for president. Those saying yes totaled 11%, no different than in 2004.
Remember New Hampshire where Hillary was supposed to be creamed according to the polls? Same with California, Texas, etc., do I need to continue?
When you post these polls you suppress the vote of republicans if they think it’s a lost cause.
Sensible Mom on October 21, 2008 at 10:06 AM
Liberal is still a dirty word. Obama calls racism every time he is criticized. If McCain simply calls him a liberal, how does he respond.
Time to dump the PUMAs Senator McCain, start by calling Obama a liberal and win this election.
Angry Dumbo on October 21, 2008 at 10:23 AM
I just don’t get it. In my South Florida neighborhood, which is ground zero for all things Democrat, I counted 11 McCain vs. 3 Obama yard signs. Why the seeming grass roots yard sign support for McCain in this very, very blue district?
I think that Obama is not exciting his liberal white base and only shows well in the non-white districts.
epluribusunum on October 21, 2008 at 11:29 AM
Who said, “_______ (name of candidate) couldn’t possibly have won, no one I know voted for him”? I get the feeling that the only ones polled were living in the urban areas of the NE. I think we already knew that the bookends of the country were voting Obama for everything and for every reason. I wonder if they asked if Palin was the devil what the result would be?
Rhetorical question, of course.
Geministorm on October 21, 2008 at 1:35 PM
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