Gay sugar daddy. Sugar daddy candy. Sugar daddy. Club sugar daddy. Sugar daddy 101….

The numbers should be taken with as many grains of salt as you would take the results of any of the AOL Hot Seat polls (where I regularly say that I’m from Alaska, FWIW).

Early voting is worrying me. By all accounts, early voting is really intense, with long lines everywhere. Unfortunately it is happening while Obama is high on the polls and no doubt with a huge effort from Obama’s GOTV campaign. By the time people start getting cold feet about Obama it might be too late.

neuquenguy on October 20, 2008 at 6:53 PM

A party breakdown of early voting showed a Republican edge, except in Ohio, where the numbers were close.

Republicans tend to vote early because they have jobs, as compared to democrat voters.

1. high volumes i.e. a heck of a lot of people betting and
2. the condition that those betting aren’t bleeping idiots.

I don’t know about the number of people betting on this particular market (US Presidential Election), nor do I know much about the people betting there. So the probabilities reflected by InTrade should be taken with a big grain of salt.

Furthermore, it’s relatively easy to game a prediction market given enough cash. So if the Obamabots decide they must have an overwhelming lead in every conceivable ‘poll,’ they could go out and dump a tonne of money on Obama in InTrade and skew the probabilities. Doesn’t mean squat.

If you’re sure McCain will win, you could make a neat pile of cash by going long on McCain in InTrade and waiting for the payoff on November 4th.

I can’t believe the jittery nerves on display here. Stop letting every little poll affect you. You’re beginning to resemble headless chicken!

Talk to me after the election about the inevitability.

tickleddragon on October 20, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Wow, isn’t that a little potty mouthed for a lady? :)

I am by the way challenging all HotAir readers to throw their bets here with me and make some money!!

Mcguyver on October 20, 2008 at 5:20 PM

Hehe. Excuse me. ;)

State polls indicate that Obama is leading by 190 electoral votes, which is an epic landslide.

Mark Jaquith on October 20, 2008 at 5:56 PM

Sorry Mark… polls don’t make an epic landslide…. elections do. Extreme liberals ALWAYS lose huge, just like extreme consservatives (see Goldwater, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis). The voting public does not like the edges of either party.

CC – BHO: “my Muslim faith”

Thank you, Jim Leach (what a jerk!)

While the main market have Obama in a landslide, here’s an interesting point from electoralmap.net:

“If the state-by-state elections were independent events, the Intrade probabilities would translate to an overall 1.2% chance of John McCain winning the election.”

Intrade is so diversified that even if you fix one market; you can’t fix them all.

By the way, I’m holding my nose and voting for Senator McCain, even though he’s spent the last eight years basically insulting me. While he’ll screw me on tax cuts, free speech, gun ownership, etc. at least he’ll defend the country. What a choice!

True but judging after their “succes” in predicting Romney as vp I am a little cautious.

It’s hard to predict the decision of one man. Even by McCain’s admission, he made the decision rather impulsively only days before the public announcement.

I don’t think it’s going to be a landslide either, but I do think Obama is going to win decisively.

I won’t worry. I early-voted today, so I can ignore all the last-minute hand-wringing that’s bound to occur…

golfer1 on October 20, 2008 at 5:49 PM

Early voting is worrying me. By all accounts, early voting is really intense, with long lines everywhere. Unfortunately it is happening while Obama is high on the polls and no doubt with a huge effort from Obama’s GOTV campaign. By the time people start getting cold feet about Obama it might be too late.

Predictive markets are more accurate, because they force people to put their money where their mouth is.

True but judging after their “succes” in predicting Romney as vp I am a little cautious.

Obama’s chances look far better when you look at the EVs. Take a look at Election Projection. State polls indicate that Obama is leading by 190 electoral votes, which is an epic landslide.

That is possible but I am not so sure we are going to see the landslide Obama’s friends and the media are salivating about. I might be wrong but I remember during the primarie he outspent Hillary on advertising and he was leading in all the states. And with few days before the actuale vote miracle of miracles Hillary gets in front and wins in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and so on.

InTrade has a very brief history, in which it has demonstrated no predictive value whatsoever. It’s as reliable as an on-line poll.

Predictive markets are more accurate, because they force people to put their money where their mouth is. If Obama’s odds are too high, then why don’t you take advantage and buy some cheap McCain-to-win contracts? Why aren’t other people doing the same?

I saw this intrade discrepancy yesterday and was hoping it would be featured here.

It’s not a discrepancy. InTrade isn’t supposed to mirror polls. If Obama were polling 70%, I’d expect his InTrade price to in to be in the mid-$90 range. Furthermore, we don’t elect presidents by popular vote. Obama’s chances look far better when you look at the EVs. Take a look at Election Projection. State polls indicate that Obama is leading by 190 electoral votes, which is an epic landslide.

YellowDawg on October 20, 2008 at 2:53 PM

Obama is so weak on foreign policy because his worldview is far left. He doesn’t believe the US is the greatest force for good the world has ever seen. He believes it’s bad the US is powerful, as then other countries are weaker by comparison. His foreign policy will be the worst. The world may admire him, but in spite or perhaps even because of that, the US will get weaker and weaker during the Obama administration. The whole world will suffer because of it.

F the polls. F the bookies and gamblers. F the media numbers. Period.

Talk to me after the election about the inevitability.

tickleddragon on October 20, 2008 at 2:18 PM

Wow, isn’t that a little potty mouthed for a lady? :)

I am by the way challenging all HotAir readers to throw their bets here with me and make some money!!

(Unless she quits before then to serve in some role in an Obama administration [God forbid], which is rumored to be a possibility).

AZCoyote on October 20, 2008 at 4:26 PM

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

It would be nice to be rid of her but I wouldn’t wish that on anyone else in the country… much less the WHOLE country.

>_<

*eats*

Isn’t Janet Napolitano up for reelection or someting? Just asking. I know a number of governors are coming november.

clemycali on October 20, 2008 at 4:11 PM

She is halfway through her second term. Term limits bar her from running again in 2010. At that point she’s expected to try gaining McCain’s seat.

Isn’t Janet Napolitano up for reelection or someting? Just asking. I know a number of governors are coming november.

clemycali on October 20, 2008 at 4:11 PM

No, she’s not running this year. She was first elected in 2002, and re-elected in 2006. AZ governors serve 4-year terms, and can’t serve more than 2 terms, so she’s done as of 2010. (Unless she quits before then to serve in some role in an Obama administration [God forbid], which is rumored to be a possibility).

Sad. It won’t play itself out your (wishful) way. You will not recognize your/our country in 4 years, and it will not be reversible. Show me where Socialism reversed. Please don’t pick the former Eastern bloc, which wasn’t Socialist.
I pitty the next generations, if there are more like you.

I dare to say that in eastern socialist contries the socialism was real. Maybe not in the same manner everywhere.There were diffrences between lets say former Democratic Republic of Germany, Hungary and Bulgaria.Not to mention the baltic states that were under soviet rule. I know for a fact because I lived in one of those countries:Romania to be precise.
So I must say that everything is possible in life evan the reverse of the socialism or of a dictatorship but I’d rather don’t take my chances with an Obama administration. Honestly. Would take at least 20 years of continuous GOP and conservative rule to undo the result of 4 year of Obama administration and 2 years of democratic dominate Congress.

Four years of sacrifice, 20 years of gain. (So long as the GOP doesn’t blow it.)

Nethicus on October 20, 2008 at 2:37 PM

Sad. It won’t play itself out your (wishful) way. You will not recognize your/our country in 4 years, and it will not be reversible. Show me where Socialism reversed. Please don’t pick the former Eastern bloc, which wasn’t Socialist.

I pitty the next generations, if there are more like you.