Don’t jump ship over InTrade
posted at 2:10 pm on October 20, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Jim Manzi offers a peculiar prescription for Republicans in the final two weeks of the campaign at The Corner. Declaring the presidential race all but finished, Jim wants the GOP to transfer all remaining resources to battling for the Senate:
Here’s why from the point of view of McCain/Palin supporters:
McCain has been an underdog throughout this race. According to InTrade, he’s spent 214 of the past 220 days as a less than even-money bet. His chances have collapsed within the past month. he betting line on him as I write this is about 6-1 against. Such long-shots do come in sometimes, but it is very unlikely that McCain will be president. Unless somebody has information that is unavailable to the public markets, this estimate should guide allocation of resources.
Further, Democrats are literally 10-1 to 100-1 favorites to control each house of congress. It’s time to accept all this.
Why — just because some people who like to bet say so? InTrade is a bookie service, and nothing more. InTrade has a very brief history, in which it has demonstrated no predictive value whatsoever. It’s as reliable as an on-line poll. It measures only those who feel motivated to buy shares (place bets) on one candidate based on the individual belief of their likelihood of victory.
It’s not at all scientific, although if one has enough spare cash, I’m certain it can be at least as entertaining as betting on the Vikings. Bookies don’t determine who wins the game, and InTrade doesn’t even measure real political support. After the collapse of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and mortgage-backed securities, I find Manzi’s reliance on the wisdom of investors somewhat amusing, and uncompelling.
Both the presidential and the Senate races are important, but if we want to talk odds, then the Senate’s a much bigger long shot than the Presidency. McCain has continued to close in on Obama in the last few days and has two weeks to tie or surpass him. In the Senate, though, the Republicans have to defend ten more seats than the Democrats. They’re not going to win control of the Senate, and they have an outside shot of losing enough seats to give Harry Reid a filibuster-proof majority, although that’s a long shot as well.
Under those circumstances, it’s much more important that we fight for the McCain ticket. If Obama gets elected, the composition of the Democratic majority in the upper chamber won’t make any difference at all. They will approve his judicial appointments and his policies will sail through Congress for at least two years, until the Republicans have a better balance in the midterm elections. The only way to stop that from happening is to get McCain elected, not to hold the line on a Democratic majority to 59 seats.
Update: My friend King Banaian parses the probabilities, but he makes a fundamental error:
The InTrade data give us virtually a representation of the probability of McCain winning and Obama winning.
No, it doesn’t. It gives us the odds as seen by those who are betting on the outcome. There’s a significant difference between those two things. Who are the bettors? Do they represent, as a sample, the electorate as a whole? Are they even all American? I reject the notion that InTrade represents the probability of either candidate winning the election. It just gives us an idea of the opinions of those willing to place bets, just as Vegas bookmaking odds do with college football games.
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InTrade had Rommney at about 60% right before McCain picked Palin.
BadgerHawk on October 20, 2008 at 2:13 PM
How does being with 3 to 5 in all but the most skewed-towards-Dems polls translate into “his chances have collapsed”?
crazy_legs on October 20, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Romney. Stupid chubby fingers.
BadgerHawk on October 20, 2008 at 2:14 PM
In the words of Admiral Farragut,
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 20, 2008 at 2:14 PM
How much money was lost betting the Patriots would beat the Giants last year?
The bottom line is that gamblers are stupid.
They didn’t build billion dollar casinos in Las Vegas because the house loses in the long run.
NoDonkey on October 20, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Ed, Centrebet.com has correctly predicted every election in Australia since it’s inception.
There’s also a few economists here who has done research papers on the predictive powers of election betting, and they say it is much more accurate than polling.
cyclosarin on October 20, 2008 at 2:15 PM
I tried to put some money on McCain a few days ago because I’m pretty sure he’ll win.
It wouldn’t accept my credit card. Apparently, most American credit card companies block transfers to InTrade which means you’ve either got to write a check and send it or do a wire transfer. I doubt most Americans are going to bother with the check or wire transfer which means a good chunk of the bets are being placed by Europeans (it’s an Irish site). They couldn’t understand how we could possibly re-elect Bush in 2004 and they will be equally shocked and confused when McCain wins in 2008.
JadeNYU on October 20, 2008 at 2:17 PM
I’m sorry. But the only numbers I’m interested in come in on election day. F the polls. F the bookies and gamblers. F the media numbers. Period.
Talk to me after the election about the inevitability.
tickleddragon on October 20, 2008 at 2:18 PM
If in these last days friends talk to other friends to get more information on the prez elections to learn which way to vote, do you really think people are going to make a good argument for voting Obama rather than McCain? How would that conversation go? He’s black, it’s good for race relations? Or more likely to say McCain is good on private enterprise which drives the economy and Obama is very weak on foreign policy?
Paul-Cincy on October 20, 2008 at 2:19 PM
% of people who use intrade? small. Large part of McCain’s base, Evangelicals, frown on gambling. I KNOW they aren’t on intrade.
marklmail on October 20, 2008 at 2:19 PM
Shouldn’t McCain fight for the McCain ticket first?
csdeven on October 20, 2008 at 2:19 PM
This is also the same InTrade that predicted Palin would be replaced right? guffaw
YellowDawg on October 20, 2008 at 2:20 PM
By giving odds or point spreads bookies are trying to influence betting. So keep on trusting those bookies.
Akzed on October 20, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Won’t McCain if elected, be replaced by a dem appointee? Should we vote for Obama as well to save the Senate???
rw on October 20, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Why mention Intrade if it is merely a bookie service, unless panic is setting in?
Fletch54 on October 20, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Good one, CS.
tickleddragon on October 20, 2008 at 2:21 PM
BadgerHawk-at least in an Obama administration your chubby fingers will soon be slender due to the redistribution of your wealth-you’ll be forced to go on a diet when you can no longer afford food.
Badger40 on October 20, 2008 at 2:22 PM
What was the name of that horse who was a sure thing to win the Belmont Stakes until he scratched on the last day? Barack Hussein Obama? Oh, maybe not…
Steve Z on October 20, 2008 at 2:22 PM
I can see Reid and Pelosi using the nuclear option anyway.
lodge on October 20, 2008 at 2:23 PM
InTrade, CentreBet, etc. are fairly accurate. BUT - Their accuracy is measured against the FINAL OUTCOME vs THEIR FINAL ODDS. No betting site is anywhere near what their final odds will be, just like the skewed polls aren’t anywhere near what they will be towards the end of next week.
CC - BHO: “my Muslim faith”
CapedConservative on October 20, 2008 at 2:26 PM
Heh. I don’t actually have chubby fingers, I just typed an extra m.
And actually under an Obama administration I’ll receive a tax cut and get a check in the mail from the greedy big oil companies and the taxes on businesses won’t affect the prices of the products I buy one bit…/
BadgerHawk on October 20, 2008 at 2:28 PM
If Jimmy the Greek told me to bet on Obama in the election, I still wouldn’t. With the polls this close with 15 days to go, it’s still a toss-up and Palin has a chance of winning. The only things that I will ever bet on is Secretariat and the sun coming up. Since Secretariat is dead……………
flytier on October 20, 2008 at 2:29 PM
[edited to delete inappropriate content -- Please do not advocate violence in our comment threads. -- Ed.
Addendum: Entirely deleted at user request. ]
Browncoatone on October 20, 2008 at 2:29 PM
I tried to purchase InTrade stock when it was 30% McCain and 60% Obama but I got a message that my credit card was restricted because of federal gambling laws that clamp down on this sort of trade.
So who are the people doing the trading? My thoughts are that it is european traders and not US voters. So if that is the case, then these kinds of margins would make sense.
If I thought there was an easy way to bet McCain, I would do it now while it is still at bargain prices.
I don’t see Obama winning when thoughtful people go into the booth. He is such a lightweight that he would have zero control over his own party and/or the fringe and he would implode inside the first 100 days.
towerh2o on October 20, 2008 at 2:29 PM
I just had this talk with my husband. At worst I’d say the odd are 3 to 1 against McCain. Yes, Obama has an advantage, but it isn’t a fool proof one.
If anything, that makes the bet a good one, in favor of McCain.
Esthier on October 20, 2008 at 2:30 PM
My mom has two election predictors that she says have accurately chosen the winner in every election since Carter.
Halloween mask sales: Palin masks are sold out and Obama masks are being discounted. (Though, this is supposed to be a comparison of the two candidates so I’m not sure what it means that it’s the VP candidate whose mask is selling so well).
My Dad has declared that it’s a done deal and Obama is going to win. My Dad has never been right a single time when he’s declared an election over. If he thinks it might be close, it’s any candidate’s game. If he declares a winner and says there’s no way for the other guy to win….well, the other guy’s going to win.
JadeNYU on October 20, 2008 at 2:30 PM
I give InTrade about as much respect as I give the percentage of newspaper endorsements. Which is about as much respect I give to what I just flushed.
But the other side’s cheerleaders keep shaking their pom-poms and saying we’re toast! Why would they lie about something like that.
Jim Treacher on October 20, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Were you adopted by Dick Morris in 2005?
BadgerHawk on October 20, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Are you kidding me??
$150,000,000.00 in the last month.
And we’ve recently seen that a $100,000.00 “investment” at Intrade caused more than a 10% shift in the numbers.
And it makes a great “discourage the Rethugs” weapon, no?
And you can “invest” there even if you’re not an American citizen, or have already given the legal max to Obama.
Seriously.
It’s still way too small a market to think this way about Intrade.
George Soros has trashed multi-billion dollar currency markets in order to shift elections. Intrade is trivial, by comparison.
ClintACK on October 20, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Intrade, the barakomedia, and BO are all figuring on 57 states voting. Of course they conclude that’s its over for JM because those extra 7 states that “the one” thinks exist, are all voting for the dems….
jbh45 on October 20, 2008 at 2:36 PM
If you have a bit of money to play with, chances are good to make a few bucks by playing against InTrade.
Entelechy on October 20, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Not me. I’m voting for Obama! I’ve come to the conclusion that we need the US just to see what a bunch of feckless dolts liberals are, and 4 years of bad policy, overspending, and general nimroderry, with nobody else to blame, will reveal to the nation that hey, Democrats are losers.
Four years of sacrifice, 20 years of gain. (So long as the GOP doesn’t blow it.)
Nethicus on October 20, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Ed, thanks for addressing this. I went a bit cross-eyed reading this post at the corner. In-Trade? Really? Come on. Back in 2004 it looked like Kerry had it in the bag up to 4 days before the election and the media screamed as much. There is a lifetime between election day and today.
jawbone on October 20, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Indeed, and to Hillary, first.
Entelechy on October 20, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Six of one…
whitetop on October 20, 2008 at 2:39 PM
The republican revolution has started again…with Sara Palin…Win or lose the seeds have been planted and won’t be aborted.
Nothing can stop us NOW.
tomas on October 20, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Sorry, but Barry’s science advisor has announced that once in office, he will use the Environmental agency to declare Carbon D as a toxic substance, which it can then regulate without any Congressional action.
Socialism and a total takeover of the economy comes with his election.
Romeo13 on October 20, 2008 at 2:40 PM
doubt it will work out that way at all
jp on October 20, 2008 at 2:41 PM
What’s InTrade?
/iSarc
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 20, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Intrade is just a reflection of perceived public opinion with financial positions, with heavy influence by the media and the polls, the odds produced are basically a consolidation of media positions and polling data into one figure. Back when it was still tradesports in 2006 the chances of the Dems taking the Senate was $2 to win $10. The media underestimated the anti Republican sentiment in 2006. In 2004 the polls underestimated Republican turnout. It can go either way and most people won’t know until the first results start coming in, there should be a few percentage point shift either way and that will tell you what the night will ultimately end up being. Everything before those first results is just “educated” intuition and polling based “speculation”.
I’d say look at which way the polls start breaking in the final ten days, who ever has the momentum will get the percentage point shift. If McCain pulls within 2 he wins, if Obama keeps at least a three point difference he wins, but narrowly. If it stays 5 or above for Obama he wins easily.
LevStrauss on October 20, 2008 at 2:43 PM
Obama has a new site called InTake.com You can bet on how much he’ll REEEEALLY raise taxes if he gets elected.
marklmail on October 20, 2008 at 2:48 PM
How do we know that Obama isn’t using some of his illegal contributions to game InTrade? Stick with Zogby and Rasmussen.
EMD on October 20, 2008 at 2:50 PM
According to Wikipedia:
I guess the thing to keep in mind is that when you bet on InTrade you are likely to bet what you think will happen not what you would like to happen. For instance, I’m pretty sure most people reading this would prefer if Obama lost in Illinois. At the same time, we are not stupid, we know that he has a considerable advantage there, so we are unlikely to take a bet against him winning Illinois. In this sense, it doesn’t really matter who does the betting — Americans or foreigners, liberals or conservatives, Quakers or Jews — as long as it’s a fairly large number of people with a financial interest in being well-informed about the thing they are betting on.
factoid on October 20, 2008 at 2:51 PM
I can imagine BHO with his passive-aggressive BS when handling diplomacy.
BO: Now, Vlad, and can I call you Vlad? You know, the situation here in Georgia is getting pretty bad. I would really like for you to move your boys out of there, but I can understand if you don’t want to.
Putin: Черт возьми?
BO: Now don’t get me wrong, I love the Russian people, in fact Marx is one of my favorite philosophers in the world.
Putin: Это шутка?
BO: But I just think that you need to really reconsider what you’re doing. You have to admit, that to some folks, you look like overzealous evil KGB types. Not to me though, I think you’re a great guy.
Putin: Где реальный президент?
BO: Ah what a kidder. How about this, I’ll just say a bunch of bad things about you in public, but won’t do anything to help Georgia. I’m glad we got to get together. hey listen, could you do me a favor and try to not tell anyone else about this? You know how it is.
Putin: вы идиот!
YellowDawg on October 20, 2008 at 2:53 PM
What’s “Carbon D”?
factoid on October 20, 2008 at 2:54 PM
It’s like Sunny D, but without the added calcium.
BadgerHawk on October 20, 2008 at 3:01 PM
Watch the profit taking that takes place at InTrade over the next two weeks… the basic problems with lefty loons is they aren’t too bright. They can be (are and have been) easily gamed. Wasn’t it just a week ago that someone (smart) jumped in shorting a bunch of Obama and going long on a bunch of McCain?
CC - BHO: “my Muslim faith”
CapedConservative on October 20, 2008 at 3:05 PM
Screw that. “Filibuster-proof” ain’t nothin’. IMO, a filibuster would be counter-productive for 2012 anyway.
We need to retain one branch of government if at all possible.
connertown on October 20, 2008 at 3:06 PM
Carbon dioxide.
Romeo13 on October 20, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Told ‘ya McLame was a done-er…
It’s gonna be a long 4 years folks…
/swabs rifle barrel…
Wyznowski on October 20, 2008 at 3:09 PM
If anyone is interested in cleaning up over at InTrade, now is the time to purchase McCain futures. The fools who purchased Obama futures are gonna take a bath on November 4.
ManlyRash on October 20, 2008 at 3:14 PM
[edited to delete inappropriate content -- Please do not advocate violence in our comment threads. -- Ed]
Wow. Whatever Browncoat said must have been intense, because he’s not even close to being the obnoxious asshole I am and I have yet to get any of my posts deleted.
I’ll watch myself in the future, Ed.
ManlyRash on October 20, 2008 at 3:19 PM
Intrade will be reliable about 8:09 pm Nov 4.
Don’t forget, the only poll that matters is the one on November 4.
Elizabetty on October 20, 2008 at 3:27 PM
If you think the polls are right
Watch the faces at Dem and Republican rallies. The people more than a few feet from Obama don’t look happy and they don’t look at each other very often.
The people at McCain/Palin rallies, in contrast, look animated, excited, and glad to be there.
Paul Murphy on October 20, 2008 at 3:28 PM
OK Manly! I’m all in!
Vince on October 20, 2008 at 3:33 PM
Not me. I’m voting for Obama! I’ve come to the conclusion that we need the US just to see what a bunch of feckless dolts liberals are, and 4 years of bad policy, overspending, and general nimroderry, with nobody else to blame, will reveal to the nation that hey, Democrats are losers.
Four years of sacrifice, 20 years of gain. (So long as the GOP doesn’t blow it.)
Nethicus on October 20, 2008 at 2:37 P
If Obama becomes the President with both houses you can say goodbye to the Republican Party. Democrats will make sure republicans become the permanent minority.
pukara61 on October 20, 2008 at 3:34 PM
I tried a few days ago. $25 was going to net me $100+ when McCain wins. Like I said though, it wouldn’t accept an American Credit card and I’m too lazy to wire money.
JadeNYU on October 20, 2008 at 3:35 PM
True and that day I lost all faith in their power of prediction. I think dow jones has a much more optimistic view over McCain’s chanses. It is up over 300 points.
clemycali on October 20, 2008 at 3:49 PM
They are the crew of Titanic…eyeing the lifeboats. They know what the passengers - particularly the useful idiots in steerage - do not yet know.
ManlyRash on October 20, 2008 at 3:51 PM
No. Arizona does currently have a Democratic governor, but Arizona law requires her to appoint a replacement for McCain (should one be needed) who is from the same party as McCain.
AZCoyote on October 20, 2008 at 3:59 PM
Isn’t Janet Napolitano up for reelection or someting? Just asking. I know a number of governors are coming november.
clemycali on October 20, 2008 at 4:11 PM
Sad. It won’t play itself out your (wishful) way. You will not recognize your/our country in 4 years, and it will not be reversible. Show me where Socialism reversed. Please don’t pick the former Eastern bloc, which wasn’t Socialist.
I pitty the next generations, if there are more like you.
Entelechy on October 20, 2008 at 4:16 PM
I dare to say that in eastern socialist contries the socialism was real. Maybe not in the same manner everywhere.There were diffrences between lets say former Democratic Republic of Germany, Hungary and Bulgaria.Not to mention the baltic states that were under soviet rule. I know for a fact because I lived in one of those countries:Romania to be precise.
So I must say that everything is possible in life evan the reverse of the socialism or of a dictatorship but I’d rather don’t take my chances with an Obama administration. Honestly. Would take at least 20 years of continuous GOP and conservative rule to undo the result of 4 year of Obama administration and 2 years of democratic dominate Congress.
clemycali on October 20, 2008 at 4:26 PM
No, she’s not running this year. She was first elected in 2002, and re-elected in 2006. AZ governors serve 4-year terms, and can’t serve more than 2 terms, so she’s done as of 2010. (Unless she quits before then to serve in some role in an Obama administration [God forbid], which is rumored to be a possibility).
AZCoyote on October 20, 2008 at 4:26 PM
She is halfway through her second term. Term limits bar her from running again in 2010. At that point she’s expected to try gaining McCain’s seat.
factoid on October 20, 2008 at 4:27 PM
Thanks Coyote, thanks factoid. I hope she is not going to have a position in a Obama administration and if McCain gets elected the people of Arizona are not going to give her a shot at a Senate seat. But I think everything is possible nowdays.
clemycali on October 20, 2008 at 4:43 PM
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
It would be nice to be rid of her but I wouldn’t wish that on anyone else in the country… much less the WHOLE country.
>_<
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 20, 2008 at 4:43 PM
Intrade had Kerry winning in ‘04. I made a few bucks on that one. I’m gonna drop a few on this one too.
Pablo on October 20, 2008 at 5:03 PM
Wow, isn’t that a little potty mouthed for a lady? :)
I am by the way challenging all HotAir readers to throw their bets here with me and make some money!!
Mcguyver on October 20, 2008 at 5:20 PM
By the way, Ed, thanks for posting this.
I saw this intrade discrepancy yesterday and was hoping it would be featured here.
Mcguyver on October 20, 2008 at 5:24 PM
Obama is so weak on foreign policy because his worldview is far left. He doesn’t believe the US is the greatest force for good the world has ever seen. He believes it’s bad the US is powerful, as then other countries are weaker by comparison. His foreign policy will be the worst. The world may admire him, but in spite or perhaps even because of that, the US will get weaker and weaker during the Obama administration. The whole world will suffer because of it.
Paul-Cincy on October 20, 2008 at 5:47 PM
I won’t worry. I early-voted today, so I can ignore all the last-minute hand-wringing that’s bound to occur…
golfer1 on October 20, 2008 at 5:49 PM
I won’t worry. I early-voted today, so I can ignore all the last-minute hand-wringing that’s bound to occur…
golfer1 on October 20, 2008 at 5:49 PM
Predictive markets are more accurate, because they force people to put their money where their mouth is. If Obama’s odds are too high, then why don’t you take advantage and buy some cheap McCain-to-win contracts? Why aren’t other people doing the same?
It’s not a discrepancy. InTrade isn’t supposed to mirror polls. If Obama were polling 70%, I’d expect his InTrade price to in to be in the mid-$90 range. Furthermore, we don’t elect presidents by popular vote. Obama’s chances look far better when you look at the EVs. Take a look at Election Projection. State polls indicate that Obama is leading by 190 electoral votes, which is an epic landslide.
Mark Jaquith on October 20, 2008 at 5:56 PM
True but judging after their “succes” in predicting Romney as vp I am a little cautious.
That is possible but I am not so sure we are going to see the landslide Obama’s friends and the media are salivating about. I might be wrong but I remember during the primarie he outspent Hillary on advertising and he was leading in all the states. And with few days before the actuale vote miracle of miracles Hillary gets in front and wins in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and so on.
clemycali on October 20, 2008 at 6:10 PM
Early voting is worrying me. By all accounts, early voting is really intense, with long lines everywhere. Unfortunately it is happening while Obama is high on the polls and no doubt with a huge effort from Obama’s GOTV campaign. By the time people start getting cold feet about Obama it might be too late.
neuquenguy on October 20, 2008 at 6:53 PM
It’s hard to predict the decision of one man. Even by McCain’s admission, he made the decision rather impulsively only days before the public announcement.
I don’t think it’s going to be a landslide either, but I do think Obama is going to win decisively.
Mark Jaquith on October 20, 2008 at 6:55 PM
Intrade will take your debit card as a credit card. It just will not allow you to use a straight credit card.
Thank you, Jim Leach (what a jerk!)
While the main market have Obama in a landslide, here’s an interesting point from electoralmap.net:
“If the state-by-state elections were independent events, the Intrade probabilities would translate to an overall 1.2% chance of John McCain winning the election.”
Intrade is so diversified that even if you fix one market; you can’t fix them all.
By the way, I’m holding my nose and voting for Senator McCain, even though he’s spent the last eight years basically insulting me. While he’ll screw me on tax cuts, free speech, gun ownership, etc. at least he’ll defend the country. What a choice!
patch on October 20, 2008 at 7:01 PM
Sorry Mark… polls don’t make an epic landslide…. elections do. Extreme liberals ALWAYS lose huge, just like extreme consservatives (see Goldwater, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis). The voting public does not like the edges of either party.
CC - BHO: “my Muslim faith”
CapedConservative on October 20, 2008 at 7:37 PM
F the polls. F the bookies and gamblers. F the media numbers. Period.
Hehe. Excuse me. ;)
tickleddragon on October 20, 2008 at 10:09 PM
InTrade isn’t a poll, it is a prediction market, and as such it’s probabilities will only be accurate given two conditions are satisfied:
1. high volumes i.e. a heck of a lot of people betting and
2. the condition that those betting aren’t bleeping idiots.
I don’t know about the number of people betting on this particular market (US Presidential Election), nor do I know much about the people betting there. So the probabilities reflected by InTrade should be taken with a big grain of salt.
Furthermore, it’s relatively easy to game a prediction market given enough cash. So if the Obamabots decide they must have an overwhelming lead in every conceivable ‘poll,’ they could go out and dump a tonne of money on Obama in InTrade and skew the probabilities. Doesn’t mean squat.
If you’re sure McCain will win, you could make a neat pile of cash by going long on McCain in InTrade and waiting for the payoff on November 4th.
I can’t believe the jittery nerves on display here. Stop letting every little poll affect you. You’re beginning to resemble headless chicken!
Jester on October 21, 2008 at 1:25 AM
Intrade accurately picked President Kerry, even before the exit polls in 2004. Bush was behind 6% on election day, according to polls.
Right_of_Attila on October 21, 2008 at 6:22 AM
A party breakdown of early voting showed a Republican edge, except in Ohio, where the numbers were close.
Republicans tend to vote early because they have jobs, as compared to democrat voters.
Right_of_Attila on October 21, 2008 at 6:25 AM
InTrade is useless for any sort of predictions. I live in Canada and I can still open an account and make bets on the U.S. election. It MIGHT be useful if they only reported the results for U.S. citizens of voting age, but they obviously don’t.
The numbers should be taken with as many grains of salt as you would take the results of any of the AOL Hot Seat polls (where I regularly say that I’m from Alaska, FWIW).
Canucker on October 22, 2008 at 2:25 PM