Hope and change: Obama 44, McCain 42, says new AP poll
posted at 2:25 pm on October 17, 2008 by Allahpundit
How biased is the AP’s spin of the data? So biased that the bombshell topline result, which drew banner treatment on Drudge a few hours ago as a rebuke to the CW about an impending Obama landslide, isn’t even mentioned in the story. To find out that it’s 44/42, you have to download the PDF and pore through the crosstabs. For ease of reference:
The “waves” reflect the fact that the poll was conducted over 10 days, from October 3 to October 13. Here’s the sample over time, showing a huge 13-point lean towards the Dems in wave eight. Michael Barone thinks the actual spread among voters is probably eight or nine points, which means McCain might in fact be doing even better than the new data indicates:
Wave seven, which would have been sampled around a week ago, has a 12-point Democratic spread and a two-point lead for McCain, at a moment when virtually every other poll in the country was showing Obama up by five or six points. Make of it what you will.
Rasmussen and Gallup? Still four points and two points among likelies, respectively, although Gallup’s “expanded” model puts it at six. Exit question: Is Geraghty right? (Exit answer: Probably not.)
Blowback
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DON’T TRUST POLLS
Kini on October 17, 2008 at 2:27 PM
I told you so. The deck is starting to list. Titanic is sinking.
ManlyRash on October 17, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Hopenchanje!!!
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 17, 2008 at 2:28 PM
Heart-ache: Allahpundit’s pessimism not nearly high enough itt to annoy as many people
Madness.
BKennedy on October 17, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Boy, is this going to be sweet.
Vashta.Nerada on October 17, 2008 at 2:29 PM
From the arugula thread:
Here’d be my new Mccain commercial.
Announcer: What did you have for lunch today?
Obama had: lobster appetizers, steamed lobster, caviar and champagne.
Then he went to a rally and laughed at middle america (cue obama laughing at joe clip)
Maybe Senator Government should spread his wealth around, first.
I’m john mccain and I approved this message.
lorien1973 on October 17, 2008 at 2:29 PM
I don’t trust polls as far as I can throw ‘em, either, but any excuse to play the “Rocky” soundtrack…
Pasalubong on October 17, 2008 at 2:30 PM
ManlyRash melts the icebergs in my pessimistic heart!
lorien1973 on October 17, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Polls are like the weather forecast.
carbon_footprint on October 17, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Manly is more likely than not correct…there’s a reason Bambi is trying a fullcourt press and it ain’t to waste money….
sven10077 on October 17, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Meh, we’re still behind and if we’re not up by a couple of percentages then we’ll lose…
ninjapirate on October 17, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Listen: of course the polls are not perfect, but they’re better – and pollsters are smarter – than they were 8 years ago. And of course the likely voter models are broken because of everything from new voters to cell phones, but they’re not broken in our favor. When every single poll had Obama ahead by 6-12, he was probably ahead by 6-12. When every single poll has McCain gaining 2-6, he’s probably gaining 2-6. The poll that matters most is the one that happens on election day – but let’s not kid ourselves that that’s “the only” poll that matters. These polls matter too – if only because bandwagon effects unfortunately sway likely voters.
omriceren on October 17, 2008 at 2:31 PM
lotta Independents.
I’ve always figured those claiming to be ‘Independents’ were democrats that were too ashamed to admit it.
cntrlfrk on October 17, 2008 at 2:32 PM
did some math…. with the GIGANTIC weighting, assume that all D’s and R’s vote for Obama & McCain. Also assume any indies are leaners and split 50-50 O & Jmac…
…..for this poll to be ACCURATE, with its 57% DEMOCRAT weight…….
the “real”, unweighted numbers, if GOP & DEM turnout is equal, is:
MCCAIN 56%
OBAMA 44%
……….and that’s assuming ALL HILLARY PUMAS SHOW UP AND VOTE FOR OBAMA
MACMENTUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
battleoflepanto1571 on October 17, 2008 at 2:32 PM
McCain mentioned that he was down 6 points today… I think he’s probably about right… I think we’re down 4-5…
ninjapirate on October 17, 2008 at 2:32 PM
And this has not been a good week for Obama. So, next week – are we going to see a redistribution of poll numbers? Will McCain and Obama actually be tied in the polls? How will a Colin Powell endorsement of Obama impact independent voters?
CliffHanger on October 17, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Just say “no” to polls!
Y-not on October 17, 2008 at 2:33 PM
The polls mean NOTHING!
The polls are just a tool for the MSM to help liberals win office by depressing the conservative vote.
YOu know though? if JMac can pull this off the liberals will be foaming at the mouth for weeks and months!!! Ohhhhhh the joy, the pure joy of watching them totally melt down!!!
I need a drink!
HoosierCon on October 17, 2008 at 2:33 PM
The Messiah has been brought down to earth by a Plumber.
Enoxo on October 17, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Best part of the AP poll? The high number of undecideds. 12% with 3 weeks to go? If you believe it, and consider Obama’s closing performances in the primaries among undecided Democrats, it means anything can happen and anyone who tells you “probably” anything is projecting preferences, not reporting.
CK MacLeod on October 17, 2008 at 2:34 PM
when republicans in power, i’d assume they were republicans afraid to admit it. cowards.
lorien1973 on October 17, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Only one poll matters, the one with sample size of all voters on November 4.
The Dean on October 17, 2008 at 2:35 PM
I can hardly wait.
What will the polls tell us tomorrow? Or Monday? What about Tuesday.
I think my favorite poll day is Thursday.
No wait, it is definitely Tuesday. Yeah, Tuesday. The second one. In November.
fogw on October 17, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Of course Geraghty is right. Always in motion is the future.
Spirit of 1776 on October 17, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Two things happen during a campaign to likely voters; voters are ‘activated’: they make a tentative voting decision
then the voting decision is ‘reinforced’: the voter is certain and motivated enough to actually go and vote on Election Day
right now, a lot of Republican voters are in the process of having their voting decision ‘reinforced’
there are also ‘unlikely voters’ who probably will not vote because they aren’t motivated and can’t make up their minds
The media likes to focus on them–and count them in polls–but THEY DON’T USUALLY VOTE
What you’re seeing now is ‘lukewarm Republican’ voters who made a very tentative choice becomming more certain and motivated–and THESE PEOPLE WILL VOTE
Janos Hunyadi on October 17, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Think turnout. Answering a phone is more convenient than going to a polling place. Barry up by less than 6 or so on Nov 5, and he is in trouble. Turnout has always been better for reps than dems.
Vashta.Nerada on October 17, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Good lord though, Team McCain have got to start challenging the big narratives that are drowning them and the republicans… in the last 2 weeks they’ve got to call BS…
ninjapirate on October 17, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Wait, not 12%, 14% undecideds! Unless Obama improves substantially on his prior closing performances, this poll is a clear McCain lead, even before any theoretical Bradley effect. Main danger: That Obama receives a “Reagan turn,” either on the basis of his greater acceptance or a further boost from “events.”
CK MacLeod on October 17, 2008 at 2:36 PM
At a campaign rally today, Obama attacked McCain with the accusation that the Republican contender would slash Medicaid spending. This is a 30 year old tactic and has never worked before.
They are desperate. They are beginning to discover what I have known for over a week.
ManlyRash on October 17, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Try decades. If you thought BDS was bad, just wait and see how apeshit the libs go if McCain/Palin defeat Hopenchange.
PBoilermaker on October 17, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Undecideds will tilt for McCain-Palin.
Obama is going to lose, despite the voter fraud and MSM bias.
Y-not on October 17, 2008 at 2:37 PM
McCain will be hurt by Colin Powell’s endorsement of Obama. We’ll have to see the polls after that.
SAZMD on October 17, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Acorns Embezzlement Lawsuit brought by whistleblowers continues apace
Topsecretk9 on October 17, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Absolutely. Attacking the plumber was a bad move. As for the polls you really need to read Drummond’s work.
Browncoatone on October 17, 2008 at 2:38 PM
I’d say that the higher number of undecideds, the better. Hillary was getting like 70% of the late deciders. I would expect the same for McCain.
lorien1973 on October 17, 2008 at 2:38 PM
That works out to about 6 million Clinton supporters, no?
Vashta.Nerada on October 17, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Hey, remember – the REAL Messiah was a Carpenter.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 17, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Tell that to Tom Bradley.
Kafir on October 17, 2008 at 2:40 PM
That will pale beside the black voter anger at the dems who abandoned Barry over the Hillary snub.
Vashta.Nerada on October 17, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Please God, please let this surge continue.
Geronimo on October 17, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Only one poll matters, the one with sample size of all voters on November 4.
The Dean on October 17, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Give or take a few million fraudulent votes.
As for the polls, this should be a runaway for the DFL, this was supposed to be their year and all the stars were aligned. They have the MSM, the untouchable minority candidate, a GOP brand problem, an unpopular Repub President….and they have what, a four or five point lead?
No way. The interior numbers show big trouble, it’s why Obarky is spending so much time in his supposedly safe states.
Ba bing. It’s all over but the votin’, Mac/Palin win.
Bishop on October 17, 2008 at 2:41 PM
i doubt it. in teh year of the public discussion of “the bradley effect” and “race issues”, most joes will see this as a “black guy voting for a black guy over his own party”
some other commenter mentioned the oj simpson verdict, where people rolled their eyes at near-unanimous black support of oj
i think that would be the reaction:
“did you hear the republican colin powell endorsed obama?”
“hmm… well, he’s black”
hate to say it, but that’s how it will come out
battleoflepanto1571 on October 17, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Actualy here in Colorado, 31% of the registered voters are registered independent. And many are like me, who are conservatives who felt betrayed by the Repubs going big government, and now bordering on Socialist…
So, if anything, here, they are underrepresenting independents.
Romeo13 on October 17, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Heh…and he wasn’t even a member of the Union of Nazareth Carpenters, Local 156.
ManlyRash on October 17, 2008 at 2:42 PM
MACMENTUM is right. The MSM is tyring to convince us it’s over, but we need to just get out the vote, GET OUT THE VOTE
spacekicker on October 17, 2008 at 2:42 PM
They’re currently beating us in early voting and we usually won that…
ninjapirate on October 17, 2008 at 2:43 PM
agreed.
http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com/
is THE PLACE for “POSTIVE GOP POLL” data… i love the ‘secret poll’ numbers each week.
updates once a day, fascinating for poll junkies.
battleoflepanto1571 on October 17, 2008 at 2:43 PM
Well said, Your Grace.
*bows and scrapes obsequiously*
ManlyRash on October 17, 2008 at 2:43 PM
If you thought BDS was bad, just wait and see how apeshit the libs go if McCain/Palin defeat Hopenchange.
Perhaps they will really leave the country this time?
*snaps fingers for lackey Rash to get started on a new prayer*
Bishop on October 17, 2008 at 2:43 PM
2nd lawsuit challenges Obama’s citizenship
Man demands state verify birth records or remove senator from ballots
Note: It is incumbent on ALL Secretaries of State in all of the United States to BOTH accurately verify Voters AND candidates. Barack Hussein Obama has sealed his “Hawaiian” birth records and also records in Kenya.
Failure to verify and certify qualification for ALL candidates in a general election by any Secretary of State may be a cause of action (dereliction of duty) and criminal charges may be filed.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=78111
Also:
The Video that could cost Obama the election
http://www.nextgenerationcorp.com/NextGenBlog/?p=68
AdrianS on October 17, 2008 at 2:43 PM
Worth repeating.
Spirit of 1776 on October 17, 2008 at 2:43 PM
The dems registered Mickey Mouse but getting him to the polls might be difficult
William Amos on October 17, 2008 at 2:44 PM
OK, explain what happened 4 years ago.
Kini on October 17, 2008 at 2:44 PM
Remember, guys, Presidents are elected by the electors, not by the people. Nationwide poll numbers predict the popular vote and not the Electoral College vote. The popular vote is good for ego but not much more, as any Nobel laurate former vice president will tell you.
Stop looking at nationwide poll numbers and start counting blue states and red states.
factoid on October 17, 2008 at 2:44 PM
McCain is the Bismark,and Hopey is the Hood!
And with the poll results in,McCains 15″ shell
is howling towards Hopey’s magazine,and come
election day,we all know history,its going to
be Ka-Blooey!!!!!!haha.
canopfor on October 17, 2008 at 2:44 PM
The McCain team better be ready for Colin to back his bro and respond accordingly.
Powell may be thinking he can get big cred by dragging Barry over the line and be the big hero that he fancies himself as.
jjshaka on October 17, 2008 at 2:44 PM
ah… nope… the disconnect in numbers is Here if you are not in a party, you are independent… so… independents plus “none of the above” (not in any party) would make the stats about correct.
Romeo13 on October 17, 2008 at 2:45 PM
Composing at the moment, Your Grace.
*quill pen scrapes obsequiously against parchment*
ManlyRash on October 17, 2008 at 2:45 PM
JOEMENTUM!! (The plumber, not the lib)
Elizabetty on October 17, 2008 at 2:45 PM
Politically speaking, Powell was only ever interested in one thing …… selling his books. He ran a State Department infiltrated with leftover Clinton cronies and eventually fell in line with them and turned on his president.
Colin won’t hurt McCain. He’ll just get the MSM’s panties in a bunch and throw a bone to the fainting Obama loyalists.
Who care’s if Brokaw gets excited? Besides pronouncing Colon Powell’s name is a real tongue twister for Tom. I might tune in to see that.
fogw on October 17, 2008 at 2:46 PM
Here’s an idea for a poll: immigrants other than Hispanics.
We never see polls like these because immigrants from repressive countries vote Republican. My Filipino neighbor–from the island largely taken over by AQ–said that as soon as she heard Obama say he would meet Iran without preconditions, she went for McCain. “You can’t talk to these people.” Eastern Europeans, Asians, Vietnamese–they know what radicals can do and will vote for the tough guy.
PattyJ on October 17, 2008 at 2:46 PM
Get the videos out there in all the swing states, about the Democrats, including Obama, being responsible for the Financial Crises, as also, ads about ACORN voter and financial fraud with more than a few mentions in Florida about Obama’s plans to cozy up with Castro.
S on October 17, 2008 at 2:46 PM
Powell’s been out of the news for so long, how many independants even remember who he is?
A lot will also discount it because they are both black.
MarkTheGreat on October 17, 2008 at 2:46 PM
McCain needs to play an ad showing Obama mocking the plumber every day from now til the election. That will infuriate the hardworking middle class like nothing else will.
txsurveyor on October 17, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Actually, I think it will lead people to think what Obama doesn’t want them to think.
Vashta.Nerada on October 17, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Well, maybe not “cozy up with Castro” but Obama certainly plans to remove the Cuban embargo and probably has “plans” that include Castro accordingly, let me put it that way.
S on October 17, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Oh God more Polls…
Dritanian on October 17, 2008 at 2:48 PM
Foaming at the mouths? If we’re lucky. Some of his supporters have threatened near-riots.
amerpundit on October 17, 2008 at 2:48 PM
These poll results will NOT change the MSM mantra of McCain trailing desprately, I’ll bet.
JTP may have saved the Republic.
And maybe we should be referring to Obama as HTP, as in Hussein the Politician.
Ironic that the possible campaign savior, JTP, is proud to use his middle name (and gets ridiculed on talk shows for doing so), while Obama’s friends in MSM call the use of ‘Hussein’ racist.
And yes, everyone can use HTP without royalties.
fred5678 on October 17, 2008 at 2:48 PM
They can take the averages of all the polls from January 2008 to November 4, 2008 and the winner of that average will still not trump the winner of the actual election.
carbon_footprint on October 17, 2008 at 2:48 PM
How about asking Schwartzkopf who he endorses?
Bishop on October 17, 2008 at 2:48 PM
With the stock market recovering and gas prices dropping fast, the economy is disappearing as a driver of voter emotions.
MarkTheGreat on October 17, 2008 at 2:49 PM
What? Obama is supported by 95% of blacks?
txsurveyor on October 17, 2008 at 2:49 PM
I think both sides get fired up over the poll numbers. I think the media wants McCain supporters to get discouraged over the numbers and give up. I think McCain and Palin just needs to keep pushing ahead and all of us need to ignore each change in the polls and keep forging ahead.
Star20 on October 17, 2008 at 2:49 PM
Maybe their messiah will lead them out of the wilderness (America) to the land of plenty (France)and all will live happily ever after.
Nah.
They’re going to riot and burn down LA again.
Now that you mention it, that’s not such a bad idea.
Browncoatone on October 17, 2008 at 2:50 PM
McCain had better make the most of this.
What happened to the Straight Talk Express? I guess it took a u-turn.
madmonkphotog on October 17, 2008 at 2:50 PM
I will be very surprised if college students and other young voters vote in numbers higher than their historical averages. The blush is off the Obama rose. He peaked several months too soon.
MarkTheGreat on October 17, 2008 at 2:50 PM
The MSM will re-educate them. I’m worried about the weak minded independent voters for whom a Powell endorsement might matter, especially with the MSM pumping it.
SAZMD on October 17, 2008 at 2:50 PM
What does Mickey Mouse say? Did they call the Magic Kingdom and ask Goofy and Donald?
Hening on October 17, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Colin Powell’s endorsement is irrelevant. What new votes would he pull for either candidate? Powell conducted himself poorly toward the end of his service in the Bush administration, revealing himself to be a political opportunist. He cares more about how he is perceived overseas than he does about serving his country. An endorsement from Powell carries the same weight as one from Kofi Annan.
Honestly, Joe the Plumber’s endorsement is more valuable that Powell’s.
Y-not on October 17, 2008 at 2:52 PM
Rush has audio of Obozo saying Mac is going to cut Medicare.
What a lying frickin’ schlotz, the same old shit that the libs always pull.
Bishop on October 17, 2008 at 2:52 PM
The name Powell is well known amongst us political junkies, and most of us have made up our minds already. I suspect that the vast majority of independant/undecided voters even knew he was while he was Sec of State.
Now that he has been out of office for some 4 – 5 years, many of those who once knew, have forgotten.
MarkTheGreat on October 17, 2008 at 2:53 PM
Rush is playing Obambi’s speech in VA where he’s trying the Mediscare tactics. There’s no crowd reaction whatsoever. Maybe nobody believes what they already know is a lie.
AubieJon on October 17, 2008 at 2:53 PM
His son works for McCain, so does Armitage, he’s donated the max a year ago…
On the other hand, he hasn’t talked much with McCain lately and I don’t think he likes the neocons that McCain has placed around himself…
ninjapirate on October 17, 2008 at 2:53 PM
THE DNC: THEY CAN’T WIN IF THEY TELL THE TRUTH.
S on October 17, 2008 at 2:54 PM
Powell may have an impact, but many have either forgotten or don’t know him. Let’s keep something into perspective: 25% of Americans can’t identify the current VP.
amerpundit on October 17, 2008 at 2:54 PM
That he’s doing it for only one reason. Very polarizing.
Vashta.Nerada on October 17, 2008 at 2:54 PM
Then just show footage of Colin Powell at the UN in 2003. That should put things in perspective.
J.J. Sefton on October 17, 2008 at 2:55 PM
GOGOGOGOGOGOGO!!!!
Crashpanic on October 17, 2008 at 2:55 PM
They’re going to riot and burn down LA again.
Now that you mention it, that’s not such a bad idea.
Browncoatone on October 17, 2008 at 2:50 PM
What a perfect opportunity to create an “Escape from New York” plan for California.
Someone get Snake Plisskin on the phone!
Bishop on October 17, 2008 at 2:56 PM
In a poll done by ACORN of some of their newly registered voters, Mickey Mouse announced that he was “for Obama…all the way! Hey, where’s those cigarettes you guys promised?”
Several dead people were heard to mumble, (zombies always mumble), something that sounded like Obama. So there you have it. Cartoon characters and the dead are solidly for Obama and they will, like the illegal aliens, convicts, and the starting line-up of the Dallas Cowboys registered by ACORN will be turning out in huge numbers and will all vote for Obama. Poll #’s Obama 100%…McCain 0%.
sdd on October 17, 2008 at 2:56 PM
Snake? Snake?!? SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!!!!
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 17, 2008 at 2:57 PM
That same speech was on television a while ago, Obama started talking (again) about “pie” (after he’d been filmed taking a big drink of water after announcing he’d just eaten “almonds”)…I got the impression he was stoned (seriously).
He’s obviously just sticking his finger in the intellect of many of us. It’s as if the election is an opportunity for Obama and related maniacs to insult the nation and continue to laugh about it. Otherwise, there’s no explanation for Obama’s ongoing laughter at what should be political speeches where he talks about “pie” and drinks water…he’s stoned, he’s getting a big kick out of maligning the U.S., “foolin’ all the people all the time” and such.
S on October 17, 2008 at 2:58 PM
“Government the Senator”?
CK MacLeod on October 17, 2008 at 2:58 PM
+1
Let O! wrap himself in endorsements from Bush administration appointees. ‘No risk of that backfiring!
McCain doesn’t need some general’s endorsement to prove he’s qualified for Commander-in-Chief and he certainly doesn’t need to be seen as the choice of the Bush administration or the U.N.
Y-not on October 17, 2008 at 2:58 PM
In what context? You mean the exit polling? They put gum-chewing 18 year olds in tattered pants outside Ohio polling stations and then were shocked when soccer moms avoided them and quivering Bush haters rushed up to discuss their vote. But even there, the margins were tiny.
And that’s the point: the kind of 20 point mistakes that they were making in the 1970s and 1980s just don’t happen any more. And they don’t happen *across the board*. When there’s a consensus and it’s outside the margin, that’s probably because there’s something real going on. Not always – but day after day after day, yes.
Which is just another way of saying: we aren’t going to see significant systemic error across all polls. These people aren’t idiots.
Which is not to say that McCain can’t come back (although, honestly, I kind of don’t think that McCain can come back). But there are two leftist indulgences that we should resist:
(1) The across-the-board “no one knows anything” anti-intellectualism that is better suited for coffee shop hippies than it is for someone genuinely interested in politics.
(2) The “there’s a vast conspiracy arrayed against us that reaches all the way down to individual pollsters – and we can discover it by tracing to whom Rasmussen’s cousin’s best friend is married” conspiracism that the DU is so fond of.
omriceren on October 17, 2008 at 2:59 PM
I forgot to include (^^), I muted the set after the “pie” thing. I truly cannot stand to listen to or watch Obama. Utterly repulsive to my eye, ear and morals.
S on October 17, 2008 at 3:00 PM
How is this, Your Grace?
In nomine Patris, et Fili, et Spiritus Sancti.
O Lord, who in thy great mercy didst see fit to bestow Ronaldus Magnus upon thy beloved republic in her time of dire need, we do humbly bow before thee in the darkening days preceding the November Choosing and implore thee once more to hearken unto our prayer.
Grant O Lord, that thy infinite wisdom and exceeding goodness will inspire men and women of good will to cast ballots in greater numbers than ever before and secure for this great republic a resounding and undisputed electoral victory for thy holy warriors John McCain and Sarah Palin.
Grant O Lord, that the Unholy Liberal Moonbats, the bane of thy servants and exceedingly naughty in thy sight, shall banish themselves forthwith to lands of the cheese eaters far from our shores and return no more to plague thy people who dwell in the land of the Founding Fathers.
Amen.
ManlyRash on October 17, 2008 at 3:00 PM
One word: Weighting.
Vashta.Nerada on October 17, 2008 at 3:02 PM
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