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Polls: McCain gains among likely voters in both Gallup and Rasmussen

posted at 3:30 pm on October 16, 2008 by Allahpundit
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He’s up a point in each: 50/46 now in Rasmussen, his best showing this month, and 49/47 in Gallup’s model of traditional likely voters. In the expanded model, which tries to account for the higher turnout among new voters that will probably occur this year, it’s 51/45. The bad news? Neither tracker includes data gathered after the debate, which means he’s headed for another downturn if the CNN and CBS snap polls last night were right (but a major uptick if Treach’s poll of one was!). The good news? From Red State, for what it’s worth:

I have an interesting story to relay that took place earlier this week between my boss (a senior VP in the company I work for) and one of the Obama campaigns’ internal pollsters…

As she was explaining her perspective it dawned on her to ask why he (the Obama internal pollster) was interested in her view of Palin. He replied that Obama’s campaign is extremely nervous about the energized republican base and what he called the “unkown factor” regarding Palin’s draw as a candidate.

In the polls they’re conducting around the country, and my boss wasn’t able to relay specific numbers, the Obama campaign is very, very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.

More than that, they don’t know how to guage and predict the support of people typically turned off by politics, but that are enamored with her “up from the bootstraps” appeal.

I say all of this because this pollster conveyed strong concern about their standing going into the homestretch. They are very concerned about winning the vote of the middle class and whole swaths of the electorate they consider the “unkowns.” In fact, and based on her conversation with this internal pollster for Obama, he’s not ahead in the polls as we’re being told. He’s at best tied.

I.e. it’s not just The One who might have an impact on that expanded likely voter model. Remember, Tapper also claimed recently to have heard from sources in the Obama camp that objects in their rear-view mirror are closer than they appear. Exit question: Perfunctory expectations-lowering or is Maverick really creeping up?


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Comment pages: 1 2

About time

Thebishop on October 16, 2008 at 3:32 PM

(but a major uptick if Treach’s poll of one was!).

Treacher wins again.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 16, 2008 at 3:33 PM

Well stop saying he won but didn’t do enough…What a loser mentality

tomas on October 16, 2008 at 3:33 PM

I think between the Palin Effect and the PUMAs McCain/Palin skate home to 1600 Pennsylvania.

johnsteele on October 16, 2008 at 3:34 PM

Those CBS polls have been way out of whack compared to the real ones from respectable pollsters. The politico one had it 49-46 and Mav winning indies remember.

lodge on October 16, 2008 at 3:35 PM

First, it’s a lie. We all know Palin is an anchor.

And second, Shep, Shep! just said the polls are crap.

Spirit of 1776 on October 16, 2008 at 3:35 PM

Funniest part of Tapper’s post? The update:

UPDATE: It did not even occur to me, until a poster below accused me of being racist, that anyone would think my invoking of the line “Check yourself before you wreck yourself” had anything to do with Obama’s race.

It does not.

It has to do with my frequent use of silly pop culture references, and the fact that I am a big fan of Ice Cube.

Slublog on October 16, 2008 at 3:35 PM

Exit question: Perfunctory expectations-lowering or is Maverick really creeping up?

He’s gaining and will overtake Bambi, whose Oct 29 informercial will have the opposite effect of what was intended. MacCain will win on November 4.

That’s not an opinion, it is a fact.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 3:35 PM

In the polls they’re conducting around the country, and my boss wasn’t able to relay specific numbers, the Obama campaign is very, very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.

Maybe that’s why he brazenly lied about what allegedly happened at the Palin rally in Scranton.

JammieWearingFool on October 16, 2008 at 3:35 PM

These polls usually lag about four days behind events. We’ll likely see if the debate and Joe help out soon.

warriorlawyer on October 16, 2008 at 3:35 PM

My heart grew three times its size this day.

I blame Manlyrash for filling me with hope and optimism!

lorien1973 on October 16, 2008 at 3:36 PM

My heart grew three times its size this day. I blame Manlyrash for filling me with hope and optimism! – lorien1973 on October 16, 2008 at 3:36 PM

I would have blamed an inflammation. Better see a cardiologist about that.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 3:37 PM

“SENATOR GOVERNMENT…MEET JOE THE PLUMBER.”

gracie on October 16, 2008 at 3:37 PM

Perfunctory expectations-lowering or is Maverick really creeping up?

I think contrary to the conventional wisdom, especially of the conservative *smirk* fox pundits…issues matter, not just how the messiah looks or talks, but actually what he says and wants to do. I think obama may be in for an ugly surprise.

right4life on October 16, 2008 at 3:37 PM

Regarding Sarah:

This is (obviously) anecdotal, but I took my family out to dinner last week. My youngest daughter (age 6) was wearing a Palin t-shirt. As she walked down the row of tables, several people at various tables saw her, pointed, laughed, gave her high-fives, said “Go, Sarah!,” gave her thumbs-ups, etc.

The left is correct to be afraid.
__________

RJGatorEsq. on October 16, 2008 at 3:38 PM

And you believe anything CNN and CBS says?

Bullhead on October 16, 2008 at 3:38 PM

Does this mean, that when I buy Fallout 3, I can’t pretend the post-nuclear zombies are democrats?

lorien1973 on October 16, 2008 at 3:38 PM

Slublog on October 16, 2008 at 3:35 PM

At least he didn’t have to use his AK.

CK MacLeod on October 16, 2008 at 3:38 PM

Senator Government is hilarious. I love that line, even if its unintentional. It needs to be said all the time.

lorien1973 on October 16, 2008 at 3:38 PM

How do y’all feel about the ACORN effect? Do you think McCain’s surge, performance, etc. will offset ACORN cheating? I happen to think the fix is too entrenched nationally (especially battleground states) to be rectified.

anuts on October 16, 2008 at 3:39 PM

The Phillies used a pinch hitter the other night…Matt Stairs…to get a hit that was probably vital in them winning the NL pennant (it demoralized the Dodgers and gave Philly a 3-1 lead).

If only the Republicans could learn from this…it’s time to pinch hit guys! Palin front and centre. If Palin is the Matt Stairs, then McCain has been a bit like Big Pappy (at least so far).

Blaise on October 16, 2008 at 3:39 PM

McCain will win because: of his performance yesterday, Obama is a loser and a socialist, most importantly PALIN..

jencab on October 16, 2008 at 3:39 PM

I actually heard a MSM radio outlet refer to “Obama’s trickle-up economic plan”. I think the bloom is off the rose. Trickle-up. Like a sewer break.

Marcus on October 16, 2008 at 3:39 PM

In the polls they’re conducting around the country, and my boss wasn’t able to relay specific numbers, the Obama campaign is very, very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics

[rimshots, dun dun dun du]!!!!!!!!!!

/cue my post earlier:

I know the pollster’s excuse for weighing the polls heavy with Democrats is about quote-end quote past trends, BUT WHAT THE HELL IS TYPICAL IN THIS ELECTION (with almost as many people watching Sarah Palin debate as watched the last episode of Seinfeld)??!!

Mcguyver on October 16, 2008 at 3:40 PM

Stop teasing us AP.

=================

It’s now on.
Senator Government is finally becoming known to the rest of the US.

carbon_footprint on October 16, 2008 at 3:34 PM

Awesome.

=======================

UPDATE: It did not even occur to me, until a poster below accused me of being racist, that anyone would think my invoking of the line “Check yourself before you wreck yourself” had anything to do with Obama’s race.

It does not.

It has to do with my frequent use of silly pop culture references, and the fact that I am a big fan of Ice Cube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQbhlf5fjjI

toliver on October 16, 2008 at 3:40 PM

http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/radio/2008/10/15/horton/index1.html

GG: Now let me shift gears for a minute and talk to you about the piece that you wrote about Sarah Palin, and how she was discovered as a viable vice-presidential pick and who it was who led the way in terms of identifying her and then advocating for her selection. You talk about the role that Bill Kristol and The Weekly Standard played in that. Describe what it is you learned, and what you think the significance of that is.

SH: I’d say, of course the McCain campaign isn’t doing too well right now, and one of the consequences of that is we’ve got a lot of finger-pointing going on within the camp, and I’d say there’s a pretty broad agreement amongst a number of the senior-most advisors to McCain that the Palin pick is worse than disappointing. It’s a total disaster, as one describes to me. And there is a sort of blame game going on there.

Hey Senior McCain Advisors… before Palin came along you guy’s strategery consisted of comparing Obama to britney spears and paris hilton… you’re policy team blows and your messaging is even worse at selling it… you guys had no idea how to handle her considering you first set her up with Bush people… anyone senior advisors who start pointing the finger at her after the election should get nailed with a damn hammer…

ninjapirate on October 16, 2008 at 3:40 PM

I watched that debate last night and I realize that I am not unbiased, but unlike CNN and CBS I don’t pretend to be. I think McCain did a good job. He was his pugnacious self. Now to people who kiss Barry’s ass anyone who fails to swoon in his presence is mean and stuff, but to everyone else I think McCain looked engaged. And Obama smirked and looked annoyed.

So I don’t think the debate will hurt McCain, if anything it will help. Besides, Hillary won at least one of her debates with Obama and it did not help her. But in that debate it was not Hillary giving Obama a bad time, it was the moderators.

Terrye on October 16, 2008 at 3:40 PM

He’s gaining and will overtake Bambi, whose Oct 29 informercial will have the opposite effect of what was intended. MacCain will win on November 4.

That’s not an opinion, it is a fact.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 3:35 PM

I hope so, thing is whatjames the One’s “mood control” is when he has to speak his own words and thoughts and his buddy the teleprompter doesn’t work…..

the infomercial may be just his game.

sven10077 on October 16, 2008 at 3:40 PM

The comments on the Tapper link are HILARIOUS. “Republicans are going to cheat like they did in 00 and 04! We have to stay vigilant! Obama’s a real candidate and anyone with a college degree would never think him a socialist! He’s gonna spread the wealth around, great cause I’m tired of my money being sent to the rich!”

It would be more humorous if I didn’t have to take these people seriously.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 16, 2008 at 3:40 PM

Senator Government is hilarious. I love that line, even if its unintentional. It needs to be said all the time.

lorien1973 on October 16, 2008 at 3:38 PM

Agreed – best line of the inhmanly calculated 400-year campaign is a verbal slip!

Anyone who refers to that Democrat candidate as anything other than “Senator Government” is a traitor to all that’s right and holy!

CK MacLeod on October 16, 2008 at 3:41 PM

Does this mean, that when I buy Fallout 3, I can’t pretend the post-nuclear zombies are democrats?

lorien1973 on October 16, 2008 at 3:38 PM

You have to pretend ?

William Amos on October 16, 2008 at 3:41 PM

Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics,

You don’t say:


Sarahcuda almost tears up here.
(VIDEO) It’s moving to see the Iron Lady get emotional.
promachus on October 16, 2008 at 10:28 AM

From the “McCain ad: “Fight”” page. And while this is just what the news reported on, it’s not the only group of people who are energized about Palin. It’s just the most obvious example.

wise_man on October 16, 2008 at 3:42 PM

I will take any positive news at this point. I have turned off all the news programs and am suffering through “News Radio” and “Frazier” this afternoon. But it beats watching the Dow and all Obama all the time.

bopbottle on October 16, 2008 at 3:42 PM

Anyone who refers to that Democrat candidate as anything other than “Senator Government” is a traitor to all that’s right and holy!

CK MacLeod on October 16, 2008 at 3:41 PM

I can’t call him Obama-sama, Obamination, or Obamatron anymore?

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 16, 2008 at 3:43 PM

Exit question: Perfunctory expectations-lowering or is Maverick really creeping up?

Or maybe polling is just completely unreliable. Since the convention, they’ve felt like a roller coaster and often don’t seem to make any sense at all.

Obviously I like to believe them when McCain is up, but even then I wonder.

Esthier on October 16, 2008 at 3:43 PM

These polls usually lag about four days behind events.

I think I’ve figured out the reason for the lag. It takes four days to generate enough polling data so they can find one poll that favors Obama by at least 5-6 points. Why else can’t they take a poll today to reflect something that ocurred yesterday?

OT. Gas prices at the local pumps today here in SE PA are at $2.95 a gallon.

fogw on October 16, 2008 at 3:43 PM

Seriously, The CBS poll comes out right before the debate…no attempt to sway the perception. I also think it was done to drive down viewership.

tomas on October 16, 2008 at 3:44 PM

How do y’all feel about the ACORN effect? Do you think McCain’s surge, performance, etc. will offset ACORN cheating? I happen to think the fix is too entrenched nationally (especially battleground states) to be rectified. – anuts on October 16, 2008 at 3:39 PM

The ACORN scandal will redound to the detriment of Obama as it puts a poisonous taint on his whole campaign and makes the polls objects of even closer scrutiny now.

It is wrapping iself around his neck like a chain-mail boa and while it may not drown him, it will slow him considerably. Then there is the matter of his socialist economics, his tax increases, Bill Ayers, etc., etc.

It may not seem that way to you now, but believe me when I tell you: he is finished.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 3:44 PM

Senator Government is finally becoming known to the rest of the US.

carbon_footprint on October 16, 2008 at 3:34 PM

Ha! Excellent. I’ll see your Senator Government and raise you a slimy infomercial pitchman…

Gilda on October 16, 2008 at 3:44 PM

I hope so, thing is whatjames the One’s “mood control” is when he has to speak his own words and thoughts and his buddy the teleprompter doesn’t work…..the infomercial may be just his game. – sven10077 on October 16, 2008 at 3:40 PM

That is what he’s counting on. But he’s mistaken.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 3:46 PM

You should add the peoples cube take on the CNN CBS push polls.

This is a funny blog about the CNN/CBS push polls, and make sure you read the comment they really tear up Frank Luntz FOX NEWS, and how he chooses his groups to poll.

http://thepeoplescube.com/blog.php

Dr Evil on October 16, 2008 at 3:46 PM

Everyone who supports McCain needs to, right now, go on a lovefest blitz. The cocktail conservatives complaining about Palin and and the anti-RINO brigade aren’t doing conservatism any favors with their complaining right now. Look, I was a Romney guy. He lost. The choice is now Socialism, a liberal Supreme Court, and Obama or McCain, the stopgap, who will prevent much of the damage Obama would do to our nation. This is why Arnold should be considered good as the governor of California. He is the most conservative of all people who possibly could be elected there. The choice is him or a liberal. Not willing to be realistic or practical does more damage than good. Even if you don’t buy the hype yourself, now is the time to pump McCain up like nobody’s business. All conservative bloggers should start trumpeting McCain as the greatest candidate in the history of our nation, the savior of our nation in our time of need. Don’t roll through this election hoping for the best. If you fight as hard as you can for him, and he loses, you did your best. If you fight and he wins because of it, you have helped your country and your fellow Americans. If you sit back and watch, we all lose.

davenp35 on October 16, 2008 at 3:46 PM

Mac and Palin need to start referring to Bambi as Senator Government in their stump speeches. The crowds would love it.

How is it that the Fox Old Stars didn’t catch the Senator Government vs. Joe the plumber angle. Frankly, I think they were crying about their stock portfolios over martinis during the debate.

They are political cowards.

pugwriter on October 16, 2008 at 3:46 PM

I can’t call him Obama-sama, Obamination, or Obamatron anymore?

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 16, 2008 at 3:43 PM

OK, OK – how about, mmmmmm, a 65 – 35 split between Senator Government and the various 0bama variations?

*about to eat*

CK MacLeod on October 16, 2008 at 3:46 PM

Historically, the election day polls have favored Democrats by 8-15 points compared to the actual election results.

Originally, polls were conducted (secretly) for internal purposes to help guide campaigns and determine what messages were resonating. Pollsters then moved into the $$$ business and the media/Democrats felt that public polls could actually influence the final election results. Therefore, the polls as currently presented are intended to influence voters, favoring Democrats. If Obama is less than 10 points ahead of McCain, McCain should win. Of course the extensive voter fraud/corruption going on is hard to poll. Maybe this is the Democrats’ way of catching up with the fake polls so they will reflect the final vote.

jerseyman on October 16, 2008 at 3:47 PM

Neither tracker includes data gathered after the debate, which means he’s headed for another downturn if the CNN and CBS snap polls last night were right…

Gee, AP, it took you long enough. Glad you could come out for so really good news, even though you tried to crap on it there in the middle. But I kudos for even putting it up in the first place. I half expected Ed to give in and do it but tha wouldn’t have looked good for AP since you’re The Poll Man, it seems, here at HA.

Sultry Beauty on October 16, 2008 at 3:47 PM

They are political cowards.

pugwriter on October 16, 2008 at 3:46 PM

Not so much that, more that they are political elites. And elites don’t tend to understand why things like Senator Socalist Government vs. Joe Normal would strike people as odd.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 16, 2008 at 3:48 PM

Of course the extensive voter fraud/corruption going on is hard to poll. Maybe this is the Democrats’ way of catching up with the fake polls so they will reflect the final vote. – jerseyman on October 16, 2008 at 3:47 PM

It won’t make a big enough difference to count.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 3:48 PM

“….great cause I’m tired of my money being sent to the rich!”

Beyond clueless, these people are.

fogw on October 16, 2008 at 3:49 PM

“SENATOR GOVERNMENT…MEET JOE THE PLUMBER.”

gracie on October 16, 2008 at 3:37 PM

“…Oh, and don’t be alarmed, Senator Government. That’s just Governor Palin giving you a rectal exam with an umbrella as a number of surrogates are taking their turns harshly administering the ‘turn your head and cough’ test.”

Let no cavity be left unexamined. Every day. All day. Now until November 4.

BuckeyeSam on October 16, 2008 at 3:49 PM

don’t know the World Series schedule, but maybe they’ll win it the night before or something and it depresses turnout in Philly and McCain wins Penn.

jp on October 16, 2008 at 3:50 PM

I love that Obama never saw Joe the Plumber coming!

“Spread the wealth” wasn’t a slip. B. Hussein truly believes that our country is ready for his socialist ideas!

When are the liberals going to start accusing Joe of being a Right Wing Conspiracy plant?

rightwingmom on October 16, 2008 at 3:51 PM

The MSM is worth 15%.

But Rove is right, Barry HO can’t close the deal. He backed into the primaries, and he coasting on the MSM distortions of the economic crisis.

Joe the Plumber and Palin are firing up middle America.

McCain and the Republicans really need to hammer home the tax issues and how the Dems crushed the economy.

Iblis on October 16, 2008 at 3:52 PM

I really question this whole new young voter dem turn out thing. Kerry couldn’t bring out that vote in sufficient numbers in ‘04, and there was a war about which the left could warn of an impending draft.

Geraghty had that post a week or two ago about the early voting fizzle in OH, and either the media is more enthusiastic about the election than the electorate is or the Obama ground game is nothing but hype.

I would not be surprised to see turn out lower than 2004.

rw on October 16, 2008 at 3:52 PM

Does this mean, that when I buy Fallout 3, I can’t pretend the post-nuclear zombies are democrats?

lorien1973 on October 16, 2008 at 3:38 PM

Get Fable II and you may be able to zap genuine moonbats in realtime or at least mock them as they implode.

sven10077 on October 16, 2008 at 3:52 PM

Exit question: Perfunctory expectations-lowering or is Maverick really creeping up?

Dare I say (and hope) the answer is “both.” Of the polls I’ve seen from the MSM Obama shills they are seriously flawed and heavily biased.

Case-in-point was last week’s Newsweek poll showing Obama up by 11% yet Newsweek’s own demographic stats showed they polled 30% more likely dem voters than likely republican voters…geee…no wonder Obama was up by 11%!

Obama’s camp is well aware of and is supporting the on-going media tactic of inflating poll results in favor of THE ONE in the hopes it will suppress undecided, independents, and even republican voters from going to the polls if they buy into the MSM BS that an Obama win is inevitable!

I have been hitting this point hard with all in my circle that are undecided to not buy into the MSM Obama shills BS polls, not to let THEM decide for you who will win, but to get out there on Nov 4th and tell THEM (Obama, MSM, et al) that you aren’t buying it and that the people will decide who the next president is, not ACORN, Obama’s campaign, or the in-the-tank media!

I know many here on HA have been discouraged by the latest polls, but that is their tactic and they want you to be discouraged so you don’t vote! The best way for those on HA to give the middle finger to the MSM shills is not to buy into this BS tactic and get out there and vote on Nov 4th and tell them loud and clear, we the people decide who will be president, not the in-the-tank MSM Obama shills!

Liberty or Death on October 16, 2008 at 3:53 PM

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 3:48 PM

Bush won Ohio by 112,000 votes. The Ohio Secretary of State was sitting on 200,000 new registrations that are questionable but she did not want to notify the local precincts that these existed. How many of the 200,000 will vote for Obama? It will be interesting to see if there are any increases in absentee voting in this election and how many ‘early votes’ and registration/votes are submitted.

jerseyman on October 16, 2008 at 3:54 PM

Obama’s a real candidate and anyone with a college degree would never think him a socialist! He’s gonna spread the wealth around, great cause I’m tired of my money being sent to the rich!”

Grue in the Attic on October 16, 2008 at 3:40 PM

Oh dear. Somebody has a slight conceptual problem.

Can’t be a DUer though. Over there, if you’re a socialist or communist, it’s a resume enhancer.

You think I’m kidding.

capitalist piglet on October 16, 2008 at 3:55 PM

McCain/Palin…..Keep on “creepin’ on“!!!!

ChefJeff on October 16, 2008 at 3:56 PM

we’ll win this if we GET OUT THE VOTE. Obama and ACORN and the rest of the cronies on that side are going to be bussing people to the polls. We HAVE to HAVE to get people in the booths

spacekicker on October 16, 2008 at 3:56 PM

I just thought of a good commercial. Have Joe Americans, and Jane Americans in a silhouette, as to be hiding their faces from recognition, have them make claims like Joe the Plumber did, but they are afraid to come out and say it as Obamabots will come after them for any misdeeds that are in their pasts.

Jane the sales clerk – I am one of 4 employees with a local jewelry store, and I am afraid I may be one of the 500,000 that would lose their jobs under Senator Obamas tax plan.

Joe the computer serviceman – Look, socialism will not work because if we all relied on the Government, who would run the drive-up windows at McDonalds, or be a cashier at the grocery store, when the Government is spreading the wealth?

Joe the plumber – I have made some mistakes in my past, but because I spoke up, every rock is being turned over to find dirt on me.

Jane the governor – I had 3- lawyers scouring my state looking for dirt on me, why? because I questions the community organizer that was part of Acorn, and palled around with terrorist.

Joe and Jane Americans are seeing what happens when they go up against the Chicago Political machine. Do you want this to be the future of America?

WoosterOh on October 16, 2008 at 3:56 PM

dang, World Series is scheduled to be played nearly every day in a row to keep all games in October

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp

dang it

jp on October 16, 2008 at 3:56 PM

It may not seem that way to you now, but believe me when I tell you: he is finished.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 3:44 PM

I truly wish I shared your (and others’) optimism. I fear for my republic in a way that I have never before. Thanks for the vote of confidence everybody (who has it) and all we can do is our part. I’m in Texas so we’re safe. The fight won’t die until it’s over.

anuts on October 16, 2008 at 3:56 PM

sven10077 on October 16, 2008 at 3:52 PM

Yeah I’ll be getting that too.

But the thought of using a rail way spike gun to shoot off zombie democrat heads is too cool to imagine!

lorien1973 on October 16, 2008 at 3:56 PM

Thebishop on October 16, 2008 at 3:32 PM

Who is this pretender?

As for the polls, don’t pay attention, just pretend that if you don’t vote then Odummy wins and everything will be fine, because in truth that’s about the way it is. Complacency kills.

Bishop on October 16, 2008 at 3:57 PM

They are political cowards.

pugwriter on October 16, 2008 at 3:46 PM

Not so much that, more that they are political elites. And elites don’t tend to understand why things like Senator Socalist Government vs. Joe Normal would strike people as odd.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 16, 2008 at 3:48 PM

I suppose so. At any rate, do you think that they’ve now realized how badly they missed the mark? And will they own up to their blindness at a later date?

pugwriter on October 16, 2008 at 3:57 PM

Beyond clueless, these people are.

fogw on October 16, 2008 at 3:49 PM

Here’s the exact comment, for your perusal.

The Republicans wouldn’t have won in 2000 or 2004 without ballot fraud/manipulation,
—-
The polls tend to overcount Republicans because under FCC rules you can’t autodial cellphones, and that makes the pool older.
—-
we were looking for a president who sticks to the issues, who wasn’t going to fight dirty, who knew how to spell “POTATO”, who didn’t make us look like laughing stock of the world, who could bring us together as the great nation we are., who was smart, well spoken. that’s who OBAMA is!!!! Republicans are just mad he turned out to be a black man. Who cares if he’s black. GET OVER IT!!!

How about that I’m more qualified than Sarah Palin!!!

STOP THE DRAMA !!!! VOTE OBAMA!!!!!
—-
Face it. Republicans will try and steal this election like they have in 2000 and 2004. Obama could be up 40 points and they would still find a way to steal it
—-
Who thinks this is over? Smart Obama supporters like me know it’s not over until it’s actually over. Right now there’s plenty of time for the Repubs and Karl Rove to pull some of their nasty tricks. That’s why we are VIGILANT.
—-
This is a lame attempt to create a narrative to explain the stealing of the vote.
—-
“that’s what the people in the welfare line say, too. But not to worry… Obama is going to take care of that by spreading the hard earned wealth around a little more.”

I hope so! I’m tired of sending in my hard-earned pay just so the government can give it to the rich.
—-
It is really amazing how ignorant some Right-Wingers in our country are.
As a college educated Republican, I am very embarrassed. Anybody with just a few college courses in Poli Sci and History would know what Socialism is. I call this the Palin effect, her appeal to the White-Trash, and bringing our party to the lowest level.

I don’t agree with all of his ideas, but Obama’s ideas are way far from being Socialism. They are very much based on a capitalist democracy. Please get some education and read, instead of spending too much time watching Fox News, and don’t waste your time and other’s’.

Lovely, eh?

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 16, 2008 at 3:58 PM

I have an interesting story to relay that took place earlier this week between my boss (a senior VP in the company I work for) and one of the Obama campaigns’ internal pollsters…
As she was explaining her perspective it dawned on her to ask why he (the Obama internal pollster) was interested in her view of Palin. He replied that Obama’s campaign is extremely nervous about the energized republican base and what he called the “unkown factor” regarding Palin’s draw as a candidate.
In the polls they’re conducting around the country, and my boss wasn’t able to relay specific numbers, the Obama campaign is very, very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.
More than that, they don’t know how to guage and predict the support of people typically turned off by politics, but that are enamored with her “up from the bootstraps” appeal.
I say all of this because this pollster conveyed strong concern about their standing going into the homestretch. They are very concerned about winning the vote of the middle class and whole swaths of the electorate they consider the “unkowns.”
In fact, and based on her conversation with this internal pollster for Obama, he’s not ahead in the polls as we’re being told. He’s at best tied.

I think the heads of Big S, JetBoy, Frum, Parker, Brooks, MacDonald, etc. just simultaneously exploded.

thirteen28 on October 16, 2008 at 3:58 PM

Ha! Excellent. I’ll see your Senator Government and raise you a slimy infomercial pitchman…

Gilda on October 16, 2008 at 3:44 PM

Gilda you are impeccable!

carbon_footprint on October 16, 2008 at 3:58 PM

The ACORN scandal will redound to the detriment of Obama as it puts a poisonous taint on his whole campaign and makes the polls objects of even closer scrutiny now.

***

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 3:44 PM

I tend to agree.

Here, in Ohio, I have to believe that those who are sitting on the fence right now looking at these unbelievable Acorn denials and at the lengths to which the Ohio Secretary of State is going to stall investigations are going to exercise some common sense and say, “It may be a bit of a toss up on the economy, but one guy clearly is safe on national security, while the other guy is associated with all this un-American stuff. I go with the guy not embroiled in controversy.”

BuckeyeSam on October 16, 2008 at 3:58 PM

Polls LAG. Ayers is resonating. Now it’s time for “GOD DAMN AMERICA”!!!!

marklmail on October 16, 2008 at 3:58 PM

McCain / Palin / Joe the Plumber 2008

Sugar Land on October 16, 2008 at 3:59 PM

I read on a PUMA forum that the McCain campaign has sent out an email looking for more people like Joe the Plumber. They have set up a special phone number and email address for this. Has anyone heard anything about this? Cool if true.

Mark1971 on October 16, 2008 at 4:01 PM

Exit question: Perfunctory expectations-lowering or is Maverick really creeping up?

Allahpundit

You always ask the wrong question. The real question is: Have the polls ever been accurate or worthy of any attention? They surely never have been in the past, what makes this election so special?

Maxx on October 16, 2008 at 4:02 PM

I saw a headline at Fox about Obama and ACORN and Obama’s lack of truthfulness on the subject.

liar liar pants on fire.

I think Palin was a shot in the arm for the campaign in many ways, but the Troopergate thing does not help. However, I am sure that if McCain had picked Pawlenty or Romney there would be all kinds of pissed off people wishing he had picked someone like Palin.

So I don’t know how you can really evaluate her effect. I do know that a lot of people love her and hate her.

But she certainly does not deserve the kind of treatment she has gotten.

Terrye on October 16, 2008 at 4:04 PM

anuts on October 16, 2008 at 3:56 PM

It’s not a question of optimism or belief, but one of knowledge. I’m not clinging to some “hope” that McCain will win. I am telling you that I KNOW he will win.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 4:04 PM

Dow is up 400 points because of Joe the Plumber.

carbon_footprint on October 16, 2008 at 4:05 PM

I resent AP using “creeping” in reference to McCain.
/sarc off

Seriously, though, a very good comment from a poster at Hillbuzz:

I am 49 years old and have volunteered on political campaigns for 33 years.

When I volunteered for the Reagan campaign(1980), I was 20 years old and it was my first Presidential campaign. However, I listened to what the campaign directors advised us, and I IGNORED THE POLLS. That’s what they told us, Ignore the polls and keep working for victory. I have relied on that maxim ever since and it has never let me down.

I remember one 18 year old girl, volunteering on the campaign. She didn’t listen and kept watching the polls. I had to drag her into the restroom at one point and slap her into reality! I told her her pessimism was going to take away everyone else’s optimism, and if she couldn’t stop, go home.

At the time polls gave Reagan only 39% and Carter most of the rest. And yes the economy was bad then, too. As history can attest, Reagan went on to win by a landslide.

I’ve had a few McCain supporters annoyingly ask me how I can be so optimistic. Its because I’ve worked on campaigns before and I know how polls are manipulated by the liberal media to try to a) instill low morale into the workers for the candidate they don’t want; and b) can actually lead people to think “what’s the use?” in even going out to vote.

So far, EVERYTHING I have predicted in this election has come true. Amazing? Not really. I just know how politics works and have the experience to back up what I say.

To borrow from the Gipper, “Trust, but verify.” If the polls help motivate you, fine, but the proof will come sometime after November 4th.

Y-not on October 16, 2008 at 4:08 PM

anuts ~

As a fellow Texan, Republic is the only way.

(I hope we don’t have to secede, but nothing’s off the table!)

rightwingmom on October 16, 2008 at 4:08 PM

WoosterOh on October 16, 2008 at 3:56 PM

Great ad idea!

mrsmwp on October 16, 2008 at 4:09 PM

Re: who won the debate
– Strategy vs. Tactics –
Obama may have done enough to win tactically (e.g. brazenly lying about Ayers and ACORN) — but McCain moved his narrative forward more, a Strategic victory. Every day the talking heads are talking about Joe the Plumber, McCain will gain in the polls. It gets out his economic message more effectively than any impassioned speech during the debate could have.

Re: movement in the polls…

One thing pollsters care about is being thought to be accurate. When we look back at previous elections and ask “Which pollsters got it right?” we only look at the LAST polls before the real vote. This makes sense, because it’s the only hard fact we can tie them to. But it means that the pollsters may play fast and loose with Party ID and other things in the month leading up to the election, but by the week before Election Day, they really want their numbers to accurately reflect what’s going to happen in the voting booth.

So, I’d expect to see movement towards McCain over the next two weeks, even if nothing at all changes among voters.

No pollster wants to be the one who said Obama by 10 when the actual election returns show McCain by 2.

ClintACK on October 16, 2008 at 4:09 PM

I still think the Ford analogy in 76′ where he closed 8 points the last 2 weeks due to voters uneasiness about Carter could play here.
Obama showed no ability to close out Hillary- she just ran out of time and got Superdelagated.
A hard-hitting 2 weeks by the McCain camp on Senator Spread Your Wealth can pull this out.

jjshaka on October 16, 2008 at 4:11 PM

I don’t know what to believe anymore.

All I keep thinking is:

How f#cking stupid is this country?

Stupid enough to let a junior Senator Chicago Street organizer, with a slew of slimey associates, and an empty slate of accomplishments, get this close to the White House?

Or, retarded enough to put him IN the White House-
along with a super majority in both Houses of Congress?

So which is it: f#ucking stupid or f#ucking retarded?

FiveWays on October 16, 2008 at 4:13 PM

…he’s not ahead in the polls as we’re being told. He’s at best tied.

I was wondering why, if he really was so far ahead, he felt the need to buy a whopping 30 minutes of TV time just days before the election and why McCain seemed to be handling him with kid gloves. Dare I allow my heart to hope?

Kafir on October 16, 2008 at 4:14 PM

“SENATOR GOVERNMENT…MEET JOE THE PLUMBER.”

gracie on October 16, 2008 at 3:37 PM

“…Oh, and don’t be alarmed, Senator Government. That’s just Governor Palin giving you a rectal exam with an umbrella snowmachine as a number of surrogates are taking their turns harshly administering the ‘turn your head and cough’ test.”

Let no cavity be left unexamined. Every day. All day. Now until November 4.

BuckeyeSam on October 16, 2008 at 3:49 PM

FIFY – *tee hee hee*

Maybe my depression was unwarranted after all. On the other hand, I’m not going to stop my uninterrupted praying that Obama loses.

turfmann on October 16, 2008 at 4:16 PM

I think obama may be in for an ugly surprise.

right4life on October 16, 2008 at 3:37 PM

Yep. I think we’re starting to see a shift in momentum. Voters who haven’t been paying much attention are starting to listen to Obama’s plans to raise taxes and “spread the wealth” to make things more “fair” — and they’re not liking what they hear.

As for the pollster’s remarks, my brother in Virginia who hasn’t voted in the last 20 years (out of disgust at both parties) plans to vote this year — for McCain — because he’s horrified by the prospect of an Obama presidency and the likelihood that Obama’s tax-and-spend policies will push our economy over the edge.

Obama has reason to be worried.

AZCoyote on October 16, 2008 at 4:16 PM

WoosterOh

That would be a great ad! The whole silencing of his critics could be very powerful.

JAM on October 16, 2008 at 4:17 PM

That Redstate snippet certainly mirrors what were seeing on the ground.

We used to be inundated with reports on Obama’s large crowds, but suddenly now that Palin is STILL drawing monstrous crowds the Teachers in the media don’t necessarily see the need to report the crowds. I suspect Palin’s are dwarfing Obama’s and this is reflecting in internal polls, not so much the media one.

Topsecretk9 on October 16, 2008 at 4:17 PM

REMEMBER:

Obama is outspending McCain.

He has the bad economy on his side.
He has anti republican sentiment on his side.

He has the media on his side.

Yet, realistically, he’s up three or four. He should be up fifteen. Trouble.

blatantblue on October 16, 2008 at 4:17 PM

Allah,
I second Sultry, other than trying to crap on it there, thanks for posting this.

See. I’m a fair minded person.

Mcguyver on October 16, 2008 at 4:18 PM

ering why, if he really was so far ahead, he felt the need to buy a whopping 30 minutes of TV time just days before the election

Not only that, their flooding the airwaves in NY and California. Why a candidate with a 14 point lead would by ads and spend precious dollars in bluest of blue CA and NY this late in the game is beyond me.

Topsecretk9 on October 16, 2008 at 4:20 PM

I think obama may be in for an ugly surprise.

right4life on October 16, 2008 at 3:37 PM

If that happens; every sour-pussed Liberal I meet will get a long smug smile from my smart-assed face.

…..ahhhhhhhhhh…..that’s-a-nice………..

FiveWays on October 16, 2008 at 4:21 PM

It (ACORN) is wrapping iself around his neck like a chain-mail boa… is being stapled to his nuts…
ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 3:44 PM

There, I fixed it for ya.

NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 4:21 PM

New ad. Joe the plumber http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmZ3o0Di7Go

Tazz 55 on October 16, 2008 at 4:21 PM

Dow is up 400 points because of Joe the Plumber.

carbon_footprint on October 16, 2008 at 4:05 PM

Washingon, DC (AP) In a startling development today, President Bush announced the resignation of Christopher Cox as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. In his place, Bush introduced Joe the Plumber as acting chairman.

BuckeyeSam on October 16, 2008 at 4:22 PM

There, I fixed it for ya.

NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 4:21 PM

Good thing Jesse never got to them.

BuckeyeSam on October 16, 2008 at 4:23 PM

Yet, realistically, he’s up three or four. He should be up fifteen. Trouble. – blatantblue on October 16, 2008 at 4:17 PM

An analogy might be helpful here: the Obama campaign is RMS Titanic and Thomas Andrews has just reported to Captain Smith that water is entering five of the water-tight compartments in a vessel designed to float with only three of them flooded. The deck has not yet started to list toward the bow and passengers are playing soccer with chunks of the iceberg that landed on the foredeck.

His campaign, like Titanic, is doomed.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 4:24 PM

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