Polls: McCain gains among likely voters in both Gallup and Rasmussen

posted at 3:30 pm on October 16, 2008 by Allahpundit

He’s up a point in each: 50/46 now in Rasmussen, his best showing this month, and 49/47 in Gallup’s model of traditional likely voters. In the expanded model, which tries to account for the higher turnout among new voters that will probably occur this year, it’s 51/45. The bad news? Neither tracker includes data gathered after the debate, which means he’s headed for another downturn if the CNN and CBS snap polls last night were right (but a major uptick if Treach’s poll of one was!). The good news? From Red State, for what it’s worth:

I have an interesting story to relay that took place earlier this week between my boss (a senior VP in the company I work for) and one of the Obama campaigns’ internal pollsters…

As she was explaining her perspective it dawned on her to ask why he (the Obama internal pollster) was interested in her view of Palin. He replied that Obama’s campaign is extremely nervous about the energized republican base and what he called the “unkown factor” regarding Palin’s draw as a candidate.

In the polls they’re conducting around the country, and my boss wasn’t able to relay specific numbers, the Obama campaign is very, very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.

More than that, they don’t know how to guage and predict the support of people typically turned off by politics, but that are enamored with her “up from the bootstraps” appeal.

I say all of this because this pollster conveyed strong concern about their standing going into the homestretch. They are very concerned about winning the vote of the middle class and whole swaths of the electorate they consider the “unkowns.” In fact, and based on her conversation with this internal pollster for Obama, he’s not ahead in the polls as we’re being told. He’s at best tied.

I.e. it’s not just The One who might have an impact on that expanded likely voter model. Remember, Tapper also claimed recently to have heard from sources in the Obama camp that objects in their rear-view mirror are closer than they appear. Exit question: Perfunctory expectations-lowering or is Maverick really creeping up?


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Comments

Not only that, their flooding the airwaves in NY and California. Why a candidate with a 14 point lead would by ads and spend precious dollars in bluest of blue CA and NY this late in the game is beyond me.

Topsecretk9 on October 16, 2008 at 4:20 PM

Fundraising and volunteers. The McCain campaign wants volunteers from California to travel to states (like NV) and volunteer. I’m sure the Obama campaign wants the same.

Y-not on October 16, 2008 at 4:24 PM

There, I fixed it for ya. – NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 4:21 PM

No. You didn’t. You merely vulgarized it.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 4:25 PM

Tazz 55 on October 16, 2008 at 4:21 PM

Thanks. I like that ad. Attacks on taxes generally go well.

Spirit of 1776 on October 16, 2008 at 4:26 PM

Polls LAG. Ayers is resonating. Now it’s time for “GOD DAMN AMERICA”!!!!

marklmail on October 16, 2008 at 3:58 PM

“Fire at will! I repeat, fire at will!”

BuckeyeSam on October 16, 2008 at 4:26 PM

Joe the Plumber! GO JOE, GO!!!!!!!!

marklmail on October 16, 2008 at 4:27 PM

Sarahcuda almost tears up here. (VIDEO) It’s moving to see the Iron Lady get emotional.
promachus on October 16, 2008 at 10:28 AM

From the “McCain ad: “Fight”” page. And while this is just what the news reported on, it’s not the only group of people who are energized about Palin. It’s just the most obvious example.

wise_man on October 16, 2008 at 3:42 PM

Just watched the video of her Downs supporters & families. Crying like a baby. What a JUXTAPOSITION from the C-word tshirt wearers, the vitriol, the hatred of someone who loves and gives dignity and respect to these pure, sweet souls. It’s evil and good in plain black and white—and that’s not a racially tinged inference. I want Sarah to be my president some day soon.

hoosiermama on October 16, 2008 at 4:28 PM

Haha. I love how Obama “surges” and McCain “creeps”.

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2008 at 4:30 PM

An analogy might be helpful here: the Obama campaign is RMS Titanic and Thomas Andrews has just reported to Captain Smith that water is entering five of the water-tight compartments in a vessel designed to float with only three of them flooded. The deck has not yet started to list toward the bow and passengers are playing soccer with chunks of the iceberg that landed on the foredeck.

His campaign, like Titanic, is doomed.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 4:24 PM

Maybe Father Pfleger and Rev. GDA Wright can lead them in a chorus of “Nearer, My God, to Thee.”

hoosiermama on October 16, 2008 at 4:30 PM

{{{{{{{{{{{OBAMACORN IS WORRIED}}}}}}}}}}}}}}
Obama/ACORN’S Nat’l Spokesperson/ in-house idiot savant is on Cavuto, Scott Levenson and he’s smiling and talking very slowly and patiently about the 3 or 5 forms… the story has gotten way ahead of us… registrations don’t matter… McCain is spending tens of thousands of dollars trying to suppress voter turnout… what a load of sh*t!

NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 4:32 PM

Allah, you sly devil you.

This is feed corn spread out around the deer blind. WELL DONE!

Limerick on October 16, 2008 at 4:34 PM

This poll is now the headline on Drudge:

GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS

Mark1971 on October 16, 2008 at 4:38 PM

What Allah calls the “traditional” likely model is really already expanded: it assumes *60%* turnout instead of the traditional 50-55%.

No way are we going to see the 2/3 turnout assumed by the Obama-worship model.

someone on October 16, 2008 at 4:39 PM

This poll is now the headline on Drudge:

GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS

Mark1971 on October 16, 2008 at 4:38 PM

And just below (entirely coincidentally) ‘Dow makes late day comeback’

Vashta.Nerada on October 16, 2008 at 4:41 PM

Over at Aces site, he has a quote on pools..

But Jon Krosnick, a professor of political science, communication and psychology at Stanford University, noted that black callers tend to get more pro-Obama answers in surveys than white callers do, no matter the race of the respondent.

WOW, voices give away the color of skin of callers, so if the person calling you for a poll, is black, you tend to not want to be thought of as a racist by the caller, so we tend to be more favorable to Obama.

If the voice is of a white person, we feel more comfortable being honest, or at least not feel the answer will be looked upon as racist.

WoosterOh on October 16, 2008 at 4:42 PM

Pools of course is Polls…

Brain fart.

WoosterOh on October 16, 2008 at 4:42 PM

hoosiermama on October 16, 2008 at 4:30 PM

Titanic‘s chickens……..have come home…..to ROOST!

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 4:45 PM

in the end I think we both passed out relatively pleased. – Willie on October 16, 2008 at 9:57 AM

So I guess the debate wasn’t the only thing that featured a Big O, huh?

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 10:10 AM

No. You didn’t. You merely vulgarized it.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 4:25 PM

Sorry, didn’t mean to venture into your GROSS ManlyRASH area of expertise

NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 4:45 PM

tolja so, tolja so, tolja so: It ain’t over, and the Fat Lady ain’t even close to singing

Do I need to drag out the Mel Gibson–William Wallace–Braveheart–Battle of Sterling again? Hold…………

In the actual battle at Sterling Bridge, the Scots caught the English army coming across a narrow bridge, and hid behind a hill until the Anglish were strung out and disorganized, then………..ATTACKED

From its very first days, the Army of the United States / United States Army had been based on offensive doctrine–not on building forts and hiding behind walls.

Patton and Sherman and Sheridan–and “Mad Anthony” Wayne–all embodied that spirit: if you want to win, don’t wait for the enemy to come to you………….ATTACK !!!

even U.S. Grant understood that…………

Janos Hunyadi on October 16, 2008 at 4:51 PM

Maybe Father Pfleger and Rev. GDA Wright can lead them in a chorus of “Nearer, My God, to Thee.”

they serve the dark horned god…

right4life on October 16, 2008 at 4:52 PM

The poll to watch is the IBD/Tipp poll…

Obama 45
McCain 42

This is the most accurate poll of the 2004 election…almost to the percentage point.

joepub on October 16, 2008 at 4:52 PM

They are very concerned about winning the vote of the middle class

Not surprising, since renunciation of “middleclassness” was a major tenet of Trinity “Church.” They damn straight oughta be worried about it.

Akzed on October 16, 2008 at 4:52 PM

right4life on October 16, 2008 at 4:52 PM

I think McCain may be singing “I don’t feel noways tired!”

joepub on October 16, 2008 at 4:53 PM

even U.S. Grant understood that…………

Janos Hunyadi on October 16, 2008 at 4:51 PM

US Grant has more strategic brilliance before breakfast than most generals have by dinner….

he controlled the enemy’s motion with his own.

sven10077 on October 16, 2008 at 4:55 PM

His campaign, like Titanic, is doomed.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 4:24 PM

Perfect, spot on analogy.

In what was supposed to be a first class Captain’s Headquarters cruise to the White House.

So the question is…. will the first class captain resign or does he get a first class life boat?

Mcguyver on October 16, 2008 at 4:59 PM

Joe the Plumber/Sarah Barricuda 2012!!!!!!!

TheHat on October 16, 2008 at 5:05 PM

I have more of a conventional view of Grant–and have a problem with him telegraphing his moves and repeatedly moving to the south and west. He wasted his cavalry for the most part. But I agree that he was underestimated ( Robert E Lee admitted guilt there ) and remains unappreciated.

I brought him up mostly because Grant’s dogged determination to win by repeated attacks ( despite the cost ) should inspire McCain

Janos Hunyadi on October 16, 2008 at 5:05 PM

So the question is…. will the first class captain resign or does he get a first class life boat? – Mcguyver on October 16, 2008 at 4:59 PM

If Rezko sings, Obama will be sharing the fate of Captain Smith.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 5:09 PM

I brought him up mostly because Grant’s dogged determination to win by repeated attacks ( despite the cost ) should inspire McCain

Janos Hunyadi on October 16, 2008 at 5:05 PM

Grant lost fewer men per capita over the course of his career than Lee.

He was by fat the most adaptable commander the East ever saw, and very well may have been in the west as well depending on how one Values CF Smith and GH Thomas.

sven10077 on October 16, 2008 at 5:12 PM

Sorry, didn’t mean to venture into your GROSS ManlyRASH area of expertise – NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 4:45 PM

Please…leave risque turns of phrase to those who know how to do it well.

You are as subtle as a brick through a plate glass window. If you are going to attempt a witticism, kindly do it in your own words. Don’t mangle mine.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 5:13 PM

Janos Hunyadi on October 16, 2008 at 5:05 PM

OK, I’ll bite. U.S. Grant understood is #1 strength….numbers. “See that hill, take it!”….”Ok, next unit, see that hill? Take it”. It’s a hard view, I admit, but that is what I take away from his campaigns.

Back on topic, the pollsters are in business. The customer wants to win by X %. The pollsters do their best to provide the customer what he wants. All they have to do to keep their street cred is be close as the election nears. Before that it is about shaping the battlefield for their clients.

Limerick on October 16, 2008 at 5:13 PM

Some of you are getting wayyyy ahead of yourselves. The electoral college is still a mess for McCain. The two x-factors I see are:

– Race: When Hillary won so many primaries after Obama took a clear lead it wasn’t just because Dems were concerned about his experience. It was because so many of those who told polsters they were for Obama, couldn’t pull the lever for a black man. That still holds true and may account for 3-5% of the vote. In some of these redneck states like PA and VA this could move the margin for error up to 8%. Nevermind the number of blacks who will only vote for Obama because he is black. They also voted for Kerrey and Gore because they were Dems and that is who ACORN told them to vote for.

– Palin: I am still amazed at the crowds she draws. When Obama filled a stadium earlier this year with nearly 70,000 in one of the Carolinas it was because Oprah was with him. Palin gets 20,000 on a bad day at some of these larger venues. Moms and working women in their 30’s and up identify with her. How that is truly measured will only come out on election day but I can see the exit polling now and outside of Boston-DC corridor and certain parts of CA, is not going to look good for Obama.

grdred944 on October 16, 2008 at 5:20 PM

Limerick on October 16, 2008 at 5:13 PM

home of the Treaty Stone……..

You nailed it about the Nature of Pollsters–of whom there are more and more each election. In fact, you said it better and more pithily than I could ( if pithily is a word )

As for Grant, he was under a lot of political pressure in the last year of the war, and had the troops to throw into battle after battle

At Cold Harbor, men at the base of the ridge wrote their names and the name of their town onto squares of paper and pinned them to the back of their shirts. 7,000 Union dead in one hour…..

Janos Hunyadi on October 16, 2008 at 5:21 PM

There, I fixed it for ya.

NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 4:21 PM
Good thing Jesse never got to them.

BuckeyeSam on October 16, 2008 at 4:23 PM

I heard ever since Jesse threatened his man bits, he started keeping them in Michelle’s purse, just in case.

NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 5:22 PM

Don’t forget the new “Heidi” vote.

A few million baseball fans may switch to McCain.

fred5678 on October 16, 2008 at 5:24 PM

Please…leave risque turns of phrase to those who know how to do it well.

You are as subtle as a brick through a plate glass window. If you are going to attempt a witticism, kindly do it in your own words. Don’t mangle mine.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 5:13 PM

Put your pinky finger down there, Niles. Or is it Frasier?

NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 5:25 PM

sven10077 on October 16, 2008 at 5:12 PM

You probably know a lot more about it than I do. Grant was brilliant in the West, which got him his command at A of P. It’s possible that he had TOO MANY men under his command in the last year of the war, and could have done better with fewer men and less political nagging from Seward and others

McCain seems to get too much advice, but unlike Grant he listens to it

Janos Hunyadi on October 16, 2008 at 5:28 PM

Joe the Plumber FTW!

Cr4sh Dummy on October 16, 2008 at 5:38 PM

Look, I know that the lefties got it hugely wrong when they predicted millions of new voters for John Frenchy Kerry 4 years ago, but this time, they actually have a nominee they like. Thats why I don’t trust these traditional voter polls.

Speedwagon82 on October 16, 2008 at 5:47 PM

Thanks, AP. I think?

Jim Treacher on October 16, 2008 at 6:02 PM

So let it be written. So let it be done.

The bottom line is that polls lie. Don’t believe them, don’t listen to the numbers. Vote.

kareyk on October 16, 2008 at 6:15 PM

Put your pinky finger down there, Niles. Or is it Frasier? -NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 5:25 PM

The name is Rash…Manly Rash.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 6:39 PM

Put your pinky finger down, there, Niles. Or is it Frasier? -NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 5:25 PM
The name is Rash…Manly Rash.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 6:39 PM

in the end I think we both passed out relatively pleased-Willie on October 16, 2008 at 9:57 AM
So I guess the debate wasn’t the only thing that featured a Big O, huh?

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at10:10AM

Please…leave risque turns of phrase to those who know how to do it well.
You are as subtle as a brick through a plate glass window. If you are going to attempt a witticism, kindly do it in your own words. Don’t mangle mine.

ManlyRash on October 16, 2008 at 5:13 PM

Which part, of “…a Big O, huh?” pray tell, is the subtle, adroit witticism and which is the brick-thru-a-plate-glass-window part? ROTFL! Part Archie Bunker, part Frasier Crane– WILL THE REAL MANLY RASH PLEASE STAND UP?

NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2008 at 8:11 PM

If they’re tied going in McCain wins. States like mine (Nevada) are wise to ACORN so maybe we’ll be able to keep fraud down.

Mojave Mark on October 16, 2008 at 8:17 PM

God, I hope this is true.

iamse7en on October 16, 2008 at 10:19 PM

Just don’t get depressed if it’s not.

Jim Treacher on October 16, 2008 at 10:27 PM