Gallup: McCain trails by just three among likelies (sort of); Update: Obama claims his lead would be bigger if not for Fox News

posted at 4:15 pm on October 15, 2008 by Allahpundit

The “polls don’t mean anything!” crowd has suddenly decided that this one does mean something and dared me in the comments to another thread to post it, which I’d been planning to do. Here you go: Obama 50, McCain 43 among registereds, a net gain of four for Maverick since last week, and Obama 49, McCain 46 among likely voters, two points better than the recent Gallup average and the steady five-point lead Obama’s had in Rasmussen. Might that signify a hopeful trend? I thought so — until I read the famously pessimistic, eeyore-ish Ace of Spades, who notes that likely voters this year are apt to include more new Obama voters than usual. So figure the lead’s actually closer to five or six points, or maybe seven per Pew’s new poll. (Gallup’s own “expanded” model of likelies has it at eight.) Not ideal but not prohibitive.

Exit question: Is the conventional polling wisdom right that Palin’s become a drag on the ticket? Jay Cost thinks not:

I’d note also that when we talk about a Palin Effect, we really should be discussing a net effect. Even if Palin has hurt McCain a bit among Independents, I think she is keeping morale up among Republicans. In the LA Times/Bloomberg poll, 49% of Republicans had a very positive view of McCain while 35% had a somewhat positive view of him. For Palin, 61% of Republicans had a very positive view compared to 23% with a somewhat positive view. This squares with the evidence we’ve seen from the McCain-Palin rallies. It also squares with the RNC’s fundraising in the wake of the Palin pick – so that’s a benefit right there, to be counted against any Independent voters who might have peeled away from McCain because of her. The Republican Party clearly likes her. That’s not for nothing.

Given the situation the GOP now finds itself in, the fact that she rallies the base might make her a substantial net benefit come Election Day. McCain’s poll position has slipped, and most people now believe that Obama will win. If this belief persists through Election Day, Republicans might be less likely to come to the polls, damaging down-ballot candidates. If Sarah Palin can give Republicans a reason to come out and vote, that might make her presence a net benefit even if she might be driving away a few Independents from the GOP ticket.

Update: Via Ben Smith, The One will see your “Bradley effect” and raise you a “Fox effect”:

“I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls,” Obama told me. “If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me, right? Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?

“I guess the point I’m making,” he went on, “is that there is an entire industry now, an entire apparatus, designed to perpetuate this cultural schism, and it’s powerful. People want to know that you’re fighting for them, that you get them. And I actually think I do. But you know, if people are just seeing me in sound bites, they’re not going to discover that. That’s why I say that some of that may have to happen after the election, when they get to know you.”

Say this for the man: The sheer balls it takes for a liberal to claim his numbers are being hurt by the media are fabulously impressive. Barry, meet Evan Thomas.


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Comments

They’re closing the polls today so that they can push another poll tomorrow that shows Obama won tonights debate.

El_Terrible on October 15, 2008 at 5:13 PM

jgapinoy, but James’ wife has always been a conservative.

Troll Feeder, it’s Allahpundit, not Ed.

Entelechy on October 15, 2008 at 5:14 PM

I like it too, MR. I promise to watch the movie, and to cry. – Entelechy on October 15, 2008 at 5:09 PM

In an age such as this one – an age disfigured by the graceless vulgarity that masquerades as romantic sensibility – if a man cannot weep when true love and true lovers are both sacrificed on the altar of the world’s unwillingness to suffer either of them, then he is not a man but simply a beast with opposable thumbs.

You may quote me on that.

ManlyRash on October 15, 2008 at 5:16 PM

Entelechy on October 15, 2008 at 5:14 PM

My point in bringing up Carville/Matalin is that just because Greta’s husband is partisan GOP doesn’t mean that Great is.

jgapinoy on October 15, 2008 at 5:18 PM

Great Greta

jgapinoy on October 15, 2008 at 5:18 PM

If the Fairness Doctrine goes through, it doesn’t affect live streams on the internet or satellite radio, does it? If not, this working class family will finally give in and get a better computer and satellite radio, that’s for sure.

deedledee on October 15, 2008 at 5:18 PM

Great oversight there Washington politicians and bureaucrats.

Great Job, Paulie

LegendHasIt on October 15, 2008 at 5:12 PM

McCain campaign promise: They will go hunting with Palin and Cheney.

BuckeyeSam on October 15, 2008 at 5:20 PM

Is this a subtle inference that “if there were no Fox news” that there will be no Fox news once he’s in power?

I’m getting that ol’ sick feeling again. I won’t do very well in re-education camps.

tru2tx on October 15, 2008 at 5:21 PM

Oh yeah, Fox is to blame. Well, if you look at it his way, the only reason he’s ahead is because of the deliberate padding of his resume and character by not reporting the truth about Obama by the MSM. I had a 17-email back & forth with the Projects Editor of my local paper. He didn’t answer one question of mine. His concern? Censorship. I asked him if he realized censorship existed in many forms – like intimidation and in the sin of omission of negative news and information about a candidate. He didn’t answer. He pretended to not know what I was talking about.

By the way, does anyone find it interesting that the market took such a drastic spill on debate day?

Connie on October 15, 2008 at 5:24 PM

“I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls,” Obama told me. “If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me, right? Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak!

If there was no NBC ,CBS, ABC, CNN, MSNBC He’d be losing by 20.

multiuseless on October 15, 2008 at 5:24 PM

Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal.

Which is why he will sign the fairness doctrine the moment it hits his desk.

Kafir on October 15, 2008 at 5:25 PM

tru2tx on October 15, 2008 at 5:21 PM

Yes.

Connie on October 15, 2008 at 5:26 PM

I can’t stand B. Hussein Obama!

jencab on October 15, 2008 at 5:26 PM

I am the corrupt latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, cheating, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, terrorist friendly, arrogant, socialist liberal messiah. Who wants somebody like that?

Really, do you have to ask?

Brass Pair on October 15, 2008 at 5:28 PM

When I think of Obama and his thuggery and the Fairness Doctrine, I continually go back to this quotation:

http://forerunner.com/champion/X0006_5._Martin_Niemller.html
“First, they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me, and there was no one left to speak for me.”

Martin Niemoller (1892–1984)

Maybe not tonight, but I think McCain needs to make a pitch that an Obama administration along with majorities in both Houses will insitutionalize a lot of un-American and un-democratic measures.

Check it out: Freedom of Speech.

http://www.rockwellsite.com/prints/viewimages.asp?ART=00000004

BuckeyeSam on October 15, 2008 at 5:28 PM

Obama claims his lead would be bigger if not for Fox News people telling us the truth.

Guardian on October 15, 2008 at 5:29 PM

I take that statement to mean that the socialists/communists have discovered the only thing between them and complete world domination is Fox News.

Hmmmmm, hello fairness doctrine.

And have I mentioned how scary this Barack Obama character is? He is way past freak.

petunia on October 15, 2008 at 5:30 PM

That’s not balls. It’s the other thing. Rhymes with cat. – Troll Feeder on October 15, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Bat? Fat? Gnat? Hat? Mat? Pat? Rat? Sat? Tat? Vat?

Or did you mean Pussy?

ManlyRash on October 15, 2008 at 5:08 PM

Got it in …err….whatever. Yeah. I meant Pussy.

Gotta clean the spit offa my monitor now. Thanks for the laugh.

Troll Feeder on October 15, 2008 at 5:34 PM

Watching Fox and the entire Murdoch media empire (Post and Journal) panic over a potential Obama presidency has made for some fantastic entertainment over the past few weeks. I try not to miss Hannity anymore.

“Ayers Ayers ACORN Ayers ACORN!”

Typhonsentra on October 15, 2008 at 5:35 PM

By the way, does anyone find it interesting that the market took such a drastic spill on debate day?

Connie on October 15, 2008 at 5:24 PM

No. But Election Day will be another story.

Buy Danish on October 15, 2008 at 5:35 PM

I thought so — until I read the famously pessimistic, eeyore-ish Ace of Spades, who notes that likely voters this year are apt to include more new Obama voters than usual.

That “Eeyore” thing hit kinda close to home, huh?

misterpeasea on October 15, 2008 at 5:37 PM

O/T – Have any of the thousands of people Obama came into contact with during his college and law school days, come forward and exposed how great a person he was? I can’t say i’ve heard any.

PappaMac on October 15, 2008 at 5:37 PM

Fox’s refusal to jump in the tank for Barry is keeping his poll numbers down? Ahh, poor thing.

jonezee on October 15, 2008 at 5:38 PM

If The Messiah wins, who do you think will be hauled off to jail, first? Rush, Anne, Sean, Mark?????? Anyone?????? Those of us who post here? How long before Fox is shut down? I wonder?

bloggless on October 15, 2008 at 5:40 PM

Typhonsentra on October 15, 2008 at 5:35 PM

Hey troll! You think it is funny until they come for you for posting on this blog

ConservativePartyNow on October 15, 2008 at 5:41 PM

If The Messiah wins, who do you think will be hauled off to jail, first? Rush, Anne, Sean, Mark?????? Anyone??????

bloggless on October 15, 2008 at 5:40 PM

O’Reilly, for trying to warn America that BHO is a socialist during his interview.

progressoverpeace on October 15, 2008 at 5:42 PM

Sorry for the OT, but I have a question to ask: How can this be legal? It’s really bothering me.

Anna on October 15, 2008 at 5:43 PM

“I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls,”


Yeah, and if there were no Lame Stream Media, you wouldn’t even be on freakin’ radar….Whiner!

“If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me, right?”

There are folks out there who watch the LSM who aren’t voting ofr you neither… WHINER!

“Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak!”
I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?”

First time you’ve been right! Your point?…WHINER!

CynicalOptimist on October 15, 2008 at 5:44 PM

McCain is well within striking distance and if he nails this debate and closes well then he’s absolutely back in the hunt.

rplat on October 15, 2008 at 5:45 PM

When I think of Obama and his thuggery and the Fairness Doctrine, I continually go back to this quotation:

http://forerunner.com/champion/X0006_5._Martin_Niemller.html
“First, they came for the socialists Christians, and I did not speak out because I was not a socialist Christian. Then they came for the trade unionists Gun Owner, and I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist Gun Owner. Then they came for the Jews Libertarians, and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew Libertarian. Then they came for me, and there was no one left to speak for me.”

Updated :|

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 15, 2008 at 5:45 PM

Well that new opinion poll comes in contradiction with Karl Rove’s predictions. Accordin to Rove Obama is winning in a landslide, accordin to Gallup not so much.

clemycali on October 15, 2008 at 5:47 PM

Greta’s husband, is supporting McCain/Palin

jgapinoy on October 15, 2008 at 5:11 PM

As a PUMA, I believe.

JiangxiDad on October 15, 2008 at 5:51 PM

AP, I refuse to answer your exit questions as long as they concern polls. To quote Mama Boucher from The Waterboy, “Polls are the Devil!”

m064404 on October 15, 2008 at 5:52 PM

jgapinoy on October 15, 2008 at 5:18 PM

Greta’s husband is a Democrat.

Connie on October 15, 2008 at 5:55 PM

Isn’t there a photo of him someplace reading “The Post-American World?’

Connie on October 15, 2008 at 5:58 PM

You may quote me on that.

ManlyRash on October 15, 2008 at 5:16 PM

Thank you. I will save what you said. Much needed, especially today. ‘Humanity’ is regressing, sadly.

Entelechy on October 15, 2008 at 6:02 PM

“Update: Obama claims his lead would be bigger if not for Fox News”

If elected he will soon take care of that, just watch.

Sounder on October 15, 2008 at 6:04 PM

jgapinoy, you never read the link about Greta’s husband. He’s a big dem donor and operative, a prominent lawyer, Clinton supporter, for McCain/Palin. Go read the link before commenting further, please.

Entelechy on October 15, 2008 at 6:04 PM

I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?

Whoa, he pretty much nailed it…

Wyznowski on October 15, 2008 at 6:04 PM

I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal.

You forgot socialist, Barry!

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 15, 2008 at 6:08 PM

Nope, you’re the marxist. The guy who wants to fundamentally change our culture, steal our money, silence dissenting opinion, hide your REAL intentions, put radicals in powerful positions, etc etc etc etc etc. THAT’S WHO YOU ARE, SIR.

marklmail on October 15, 2008 at 6:08 PM

jgapinoy on October 15, 2008 at 5:18 PM
Watching Greta the past few weeks, and reading the Greta Wire, I think she’s become a huge fan of Sarah’s.

Fires1 on October 15, 2008 at 6:09 PM

Sara’s what? ;)

marklmail on October 15, 2008 at 6:11 PM

Fires1 on October 15, 2008 at 6:09 PM

I get the same impression.

Spirit of 1776 on October 15, 2008 at 6:12 PM

Entelechy on October 15, 2008 at 6:04 PM

Thank you for all of the corrections, everyone!
All I did was sarcastically make the point that Chris Wallace & Greta are much less partisan than Chris Matthews, which is undeniable, & I get led down this path in which others misunderstand my simple observation, & I mistakenly called Greta’s husband GOP after I was told he strongly supports McCain.
Can I just quit this thread?

jgapinoy on October 15, 2008 at 6:12 PM

Fires1 on October 15, 2008 at 6:09 PM

I stand corrected! I haven’t seen Greta in a while.
Am I wrong about Wallace, too?
=throws up hands in exasperation=

jgapinoy on October 15, 2008 at 6:14 PM

Now that the DA indited Casey Anthony’s on murder charges, Greta will have her hands full for a least two weeks.

m064404 on October 15, 2008 at 6:21 PM

Perhaps this has already been said but, barry is a

latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal

.

Blaming Fox News is just more of the same obama-fraud.

News flash scumbag, Fox News is not the reason you’re a

the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal

.

jdkchem on October 15, 2008 at 6:29 PM

jgapinoy, watch this clip, and note the discontent of the interviewer.

Entelechy on October 15, 2008 at 6:29 PM

McCain has to run against Bush.

Now.

drjohn on October 15, 2008 at 6:39 PM

Entelechy on October 15, 2008 at 6:29 PM

I watched the whole thing, & I thought the interviewer seemed impartial (& I hate Newsweak). She frowned several times, but that could just be concentration.

jgapinoy on October 15, 2008 at 6:46 PM

McCain has to run against Bush.

Palin has often repeated, “We don’t need another big spender in the White House,” but it ought to be more blunt.

jgapinoy on October 15, 2008 at 6:47 PM

Its 1992 all over again.

johnnyU on October 15, 2008 at 6:53 PM

Personally I would prefer McCain would run against 0bama.

News flash to all the Democrats and assorted other people:
BUSH ISN’T A CANDIDATE IN THIS ELECTION.

LegendHasIt on October 15, 2008 at 6:54 PM

Damn Fox News for telling the truth about B. Hussein Obama.

Snake307 on October 15, 2008 at 6:55 PM

O/T – Have any of the thousands of people Obama came into contact with during his college and law school days, come forward and exposed how great a person he was? I can’t say i’ve heard any.

PappaMac on October 15, 2008 at 5:37 PM

That right there is a glaring omission from Obama’s story.

Palin came on the scene and in an instant, there were dozens and dozens of candid, impromptu interviews with her friends and coworkers. Not so for Obama. No college buddies, no former coworkers, nobody.

And that leaves us asking the same question – who is this guy? Due to Obama’s lack of experience, it’s imperative to check his references. And unfortunately the only ones we know of are nefarious.

dugan on October 15, 2008 at 6:57 PM

Does anyone remember what the spin by the MSM was just prior to the 2004 election? I’m confident Lurch was ahead, but don’t remember by how much. I just remember the total shock by the anchors at how Bush pulled it out- and just so I can vent-

I am beyond irritated that the “pundits that be” whether FOX, conservative or the polls, are writing this off! I heard Hannity today and no matter how hard he tried to cover it up after the fact, he pretty much called it a day.
And that pissed me off. I’m spending more than a little hope that we actually do live in a nation of racists- It might be the only thing that saves us from a nation of socialists. Harumph.

anniekc on October 15, 2008 at 6:57 PM

I don’t think Obama has any FRIENDS. He has plenty of paid lackeys, but an obvious lack of actual “friends”. Don’t you think that’s odd?

anniekc on October 15, 2008 at 6:59 PM

Our tax dollars at work arround the world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8QcpdUtxNQ&feature=related

Rick007 on October 15, 2008 at 6:59 PM

Sorry for the OT, but I have a question to ask: How can this be legal? It’s really bothering me.

Anna on October 15, 2008 at 5:43 PM

It’s illegal to campaign inside the polling place — that’s why you usually see people holding signs for the candidates (particularly in local elections) thirty yards (or whatever the distance is) from the polling place.

If they didn’t have this rule, you can imagine that protesters and campaigners would fill the polling place, chanting at each other, and intimidating the people who were just trying to vote.

It’s acceptable under the 1st Amendment, which I assume was your complaint, because it’s a reasonable restriction on the TIME and PLACE of certain speech — you can do it over there, just not right here where it would interfere with the right of these other people to vote.

The only thing this new law does is expand it from signs to buttons and tee shirts. It doesn’t seem like a totally unreasonable idea. I’d be a bit uncomfortable in a polling place surrounded by people wearing Obama tee shirts, much less “Palin is a C***”…

ClintACK on October 15, 2008 at 7:07 PM

I’m sure Obama will implement his own State TV channel when he gets settled in…more likely if the “fairness doctrine” doesn’t get through.

CP on October 15, 2008 at 7:15 PM

Please mccain don’t throw that “I’ve reached across the aisle” or “I know how to do this or do that, win this or win that”, or “Look at my record” talk.

jaboba on October 15, 2008 at 7:16 PM

So I heard some liberals at work today talking about the Bradley election (read I got cornered and desparately tried to pretend I was deep into reading some papers so as to not get involved). Anyway, they cited that election as a reason Obama might lose as it showed how those racist Republicans could engage in voter fraud and change election results. That’s certainly a spin on the Bradley effect that I had never heard before.

drmanyee on October 15, 2008 at 7:29 PM

“I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls,” Obama told me.

Imagine what the polls would be if there actually were a conservative TV station.

I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?

If the shoe fits slick, wear it. Oh, and he forgot to add Marxist!

Speakup on October 15, 2008 at 7:57 PM

Ah, leave it Allah to spin good poll numbers as yet another defeat for McCain. That’s the AP that I know and love….um, know.

Vyce on October 15, 2008 at 8:03 PM

I’m happy to see the MSM touting the widening gap of Obama’s lead. I suspect that many of Obama’s supporters, which includes groups not noted for voting anyway, will stay home if they figure Obama has a handy lead and doesn’t need their vote.

NNtrancer on October 15, 2008 at 8:11 PM

ClintACK on October 15, 2008 at 7:07 PM

So, as a voter, I can wear a McCain t-shirt to the polling place? That’s my real question- I know why the campaigns can’t do it, but I read it that no one is allowed to wear anything, including regular voters. I’m not going home to change shirts just to vote, that’s unreasonable.

Eh, I guess it won’t matter in the long run anyway, once teh One gets “elected.”

Anna on October 15, 2008 at 8:18 PM

I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?

Okay, he’s convinced me! Obama finally said something that had a subject, a verb and a predicate, and sounded like it might just conceivably be true!!

Go McCain/Palin!

drunyan8315 on October 15, 2008 at 8:27 PM

Get ready to RUUUUUUUUUUUUMBLE!!!! I hope……..

PaCadle on October 15, 2008 at 9:38 PM

John finally took the gloves off tonight. Where ya been John?

Mojave Mark on October 15, 2008 at 10:30 PM

But I thought Obama was going to win by landslide, why is he concerned?

Cr4sh Dummy on October 15, 2008 at 10:44 PM

If you are Piglet and Ace is Eyeore – I’m embarrassed to ask – who’s Tigger?

EricPWJohnson on October 15, 2008 at 10:59 PM

I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal.

Finally a topic we can agree on!

Uh oh! Skynet has become self-aware!

leetpriest on October 15, 2008 at 11:17 PM

But I thought Obama was going to win by landslide, why is he concerned?

Cr4sh Dummy on October 15, 2008 at 10:44 PM

Because of this……

…..and this

leetpriest on October 15, 2008 at 11:25 PM

I don’t think Obama has any FRIENDS. He has plenty of paid lackeys, but an obvious lack of actual “friends”. Don’t you think that’s odd?

anniekc on October 15, 2008 at 6:59 PM

Sociopaths don’t have friends.

trigon on October 16, 2008 at 3:00 AM

“I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls,” Obama told me.

If it weren’t for the other hundred news outlets, Obama would be trailing by 30. What a breathtaking display of whining.

orlandocajun on October 16, 2008 at 7:10 AM

Fox News, this was your horse head in the bed. Been nice knowing ya, 1st Amendment.

dhimwit on October 16, 2008 at 8:34 AM

“People want to know that you’re fighting for them, that you get them.”

No, I don’t want you to fight for me you pretentious, spindly, effeminate little punk, I want you and your absolutely worthless Democrats to stay the hell out of my way.

What a complete gasbag this clown Obama is. He can go to hell on a cracker for all I’m concerned.

NoDonkey on October 16, 2008 at 8:38 AM

If Nobama wins, they will do more then just put Hannity, Coulter, Rush, Savage and others in jail. Pelosi is at work already. The internet will never be the same also. Will they take hot air off? Any thing that downs Nobama and other Democrats will be hate. LOL Land of the FREE? McCain must win! We cannot crawl just yet.

sheebe on October 16, 2008 at 12:14 PM

Okay Allah, the previous debate you put up about 3 or 4 polls the day after. All negative. Now, I’m curious. No new polls today and it’s almost lunch time on the West Coast?

Allah’s refusing to provide anything but negativity and pessimism for GOPers this election cycle.

Exit Question: You so love Christopher Buckley and are so voting for Obama aren’t you?

Sultry Beauty on October 16, 2008 at 2:17 PM

I had to turn FOXNEWS off today due to Obama-promoting coverage. I’m easing back in with caution but FOX televsing more Obama speech today (who was MCcain debate-bashing), was all I could take. It went on for about 20 minutes straight, longer that they aired Palin’s speech today.

johnnyU on October 16, 2008 at 4:22 PM

Troll Feeder, it’s Allahpundit, not Ed.

Entelechy on October 15, 2008 at 5:14 PM

oop-ack! mea culpa.

Apologies to Ed and AP.

Still not balls, though.

Troll Feeder on October 16, 2008 at 4:38 PM

My theory is that Barry better be up by more than ten going in. In any poll, you have the 3 to 4 percent margin of error. In this election the Bradley effect is in effect. Another new dynamic is the wildly effective operation chaos that was implemented by ma-ha-rushi. This effect has nearly every poll heavily skewed towards democrats. To be sure, there are some new democrats. But, it is also true a large number are ones of the chaos variety. If Barry has a ten point margin, that is really seven or six based on the margin of error. The Bradley takes another five off. It’s hard to calculate the exact extent of the chaos, but nearly every poll is skewed to a six point advantage for dems. I can’t see a six point difference come election day. Remember, 2006 showed only a 1 point difference and the dems claimed a huge voter registration drive during that campaign. I see a 3, 3 at the max disparity. So when you take the margin of error, the bradley, and the poll skewing based on registration(the chaos effect is in play here), this race is up for grabs…..

To feel absolutely safe, Barry better have a 15 point cushion………

ritethinker on October 17, 2008 at 12:48 AM

What a complete gasbag this clown Obama is. He can go to hell on a cracker for all I’m concerned.

NoDonkey on October 16, 2008 at 8:38 AM

RAAAAAACIST!

fossten on October 17, 2008 at 2:01 AM