Video: Romney aide says McCain closes well

posted at 10:56 am on October 14, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

I guess Kevin Madden would know. He tells Megyn Kelly that John McCain has this very annoying habit of winning elections in which opponents and pundits had considered him hopelessly lost. Kelly then observes that recent polling shows hints of a McCain rebound:

For more background on the polls, I’d suggest reading Jim Geraghty, who notes the large and increasing gap in party affiliation in the samples. Have the polls gotten skewed of late? I’d argue that they’ve been skewed all along, with some notable exceptions.

On the point, though, we’d better hope that Madden is right. No one predicted that McCain would win the nomination, not even while he was busy winning it. If he expects to produce a Rocky-like comeback, though, he’s going to have to score at least a knockdown in tomorrow night’s debate.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Translation:

Polls showing McCain in a positive light=”notable exceptions”

Polls showing Obama ahead and McCain not gaining ground=”skewed”

The funny thing is that I’m sure your list of polls in each group changes daily.

cornfedbubba on October 14, 2008 at 11:01 AM

I am confident McCain will win. The media is painting this narrative that Obama is some kind of expert on the economy and that the crisis gives him a boost in polls. That is a load of crap.
The MSM are trying their best to hypnotize people into believing that McCain, a man with actual experience and knowledge of the situation is somehow not up to solving this crisis, but Obama is. They think by repeating this narrative that it will somehow stick.
McCain might not be articulate, but I will bet anything that people will not vote for a rookie idiot. The MSM know that, and are skewing polls and public opinion to enhance their argument.
Most Americans have a B.S. meter and know where it’s coming.

jencab on October 14, 2008 at 11:02 AM

Hard to see how he “finishes” well this time unless that October surprise is really really good.

What I’m actually more concerned about at this point is all the voter fraud that has been unearthed. If the election results are close, it will be very very ugly with plenty of documented proof that the Democrats are attempting to steal this election through bogus and illegal registration attempts.

highhopes on October 14, 2008 at 11:02 AM

He’ll have to close epically to win this.

lorien1973 on October 14, 2008 at 11:03 AM

It’s true that I didn’t even think he’d win the primaries, so I won’t be too surprised if he wins the election (though I will be surprised).

Esthier on October 14, 2008 at 11:07 AM

Translation:

Polls showing McCain in a positive light=”notable exceptions”

Polls showing Obama ahead and McCain not gaining ground=”skewed”

The funny thing is that I’m sure your list of polls in each group changes daily.

cornfedtroll on October 14, 2008 at 11:01 AM

This message brought to you by Obama for America

BKennedy on October 14, 2008 at 11:08 AM

McCain will need one thing to win this election: a miracle.

newton on October 14, 2008 at 11:08 AM

cornfedbubba on October 14, 2008 at 11:01 AM

You are not to speak. I don’t like you.

As for the polls, if you put stock in them as being precise indicators, you should buy a few bridges I have for sale.

Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 11:12 AM

This message brought to you by Obama for against America.

Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 11:12 AM

I appreciate this guy stepping forward. I don’t appreciate people who claim to be conservatives constantly denigrating our candidates or saying the campaign is lost. All you people are doing is suppressing voter turnout. Yes, we know you hate McCain and or Palin. You’ve only posted it over a million times. No doubt, you will continue to bore people with your diatribes because you just can’t control yourselves.

Blake on October 14, 2008 at 11:13 AM

cornfedbubba on October 14, 2008 at 11:01 AM

Corn-hole, are you ever in here when Allah posts the polls from Gallup, NYT, Fox etc?

I doubt it or you would eat your words. Idiot.

upinak on October 14, 2008 at 11:13 AM

If he doesn’t want it to be the door hitting him in the ass he had better do something along the lines of what I said earlier.

McCain has to copy Obama at this juncture.

He has to cobble together a 30 minute documentary on Obama, then, now and in the future. Intertwined with this has to be the housing crisis, ACORN, the Congress both Dem and Repub, the war, corruption, earmarks, taxes, energy etc. Basically everything we have been talking about these last nine months.

Near the end he has to outline his and Palin’s punch lists of promised reforms keeping them extremely simple–with the emphasis that less government is better. In a nutshell he has to run against DC, lack of enforcement on Wall Street, the growth of government and Obama, the man, for his lack of judgment during his political career.

The independents can then make up their minds. He has to buy time on the five major broadcasts with extra for reruns a week before the election. It has to be a clear statement of facts not the rah, rah vote for me political crap. If he loses then so be it. It will not be because he was misunderstood or a bad public speaker. It will have been because the majority of Americans preferred Obama. Nothing to be ashamed of.

patrick neid on October 12, 2008 at 1:03 PM

patrick neid on October 14, 2008 at 11:15 AM

I would think the fact that the polls are ALWAYS skewed to the left would be a factor weighing heavily upon the Obambam campaign right about now.

Griz on October 14, 2008 at 11:15 AM

If he expects to produce a Rocky-like comeback, though, he’s going to have to score at least a knockdown in tomorrow night’s debate.

Well, if that’s what it’s going to take Ed, we’re screwed.

BacaDog on October 14, 2008 at 11:20 AM

cornfedbubbaliberal on October 14, 2008 at 11:01 AM

Good Sir, I believe you may be mistaken. What you of course meant to say was:

Polls showing Obama in a positive light= socially acceptable

Polls showing McCain ahead and Obama not gaining ground= RAAAAAAAAACCIIIISSSSSSTTT!!!!!!!!

Blah, blah, blah, we know, America’s Chickensssszzzssesss is coming home to rooooossssssttttttt!!111!!!!one!!1!11 Yada Yada. Spare us, please.

leetpriest on October 14, 2008 at 11:20 AM

Dewey defeats Truman!

Rovin on October 14, 2008 at 11:21 AM

Mccain may not win the election but Palin will.

If the Mccain/Palin ticket win this year, Dems will be out of office for another 12 years. I am an atheist but I am willing to convert and pray to God for that possibility.

promachus on October 14, 2008 at 11:22 AM

I think everyone who has seen McCain debate during this campaign (including the primaries) will agreed that no “knockout punch” will happen.

However, the silver lining is that with the gap as it is now, I think it would be the worst thing for the Obama camp. That is, his supporters will stay home, forget to vote, get high, etc. McCain supporters will be spurred on by the idea that he is down just enough where “hey, my vote might just count”

Anyone else agree?

Waterboy on October 14, 2008 at 11:35 AM

promachus on October 14, 2008 at 11:22 AM

I would suggest not delaying that conversion. We need all the prayer we can get on this one.

Marine_Bio on October 14, 2008 at 11:35 AM

Not only do the polls massively oversample Democrats this year, but they’re funky in other ways. In some, the internals don’t match the aggregates. And there’s too much variance among the different polls, much more than there should be.

The best polls are the candidates’ internal polls, because it’s in the best interest of a candidate to get as close to a true picture of the electorate as possible (this isn’t necessarily the purpose behind the polls we see). On a conference call, the McCain campaign said that their polls showed him within reach in Pennsylvania. I don’t have access to the internal polls, but both Obama and McCain are campaigning hard here. That suggests that Obama’s polls are telling him he can’t take the state for granted, and that McCain’s polls are telling him the same thing.

To judge, however, from the comments in the dextrosphere, and some of the bloggers, a lot of people are ready to just hand Obama the White House on a silver platter.

rightwingprof on October 14, 2008 at 11:37 AM

I got my uncle and his two sons to change their mind about Obama. So I got 3 more vote for McCain in NJ. I’m working hard to change people’s mind with facts.

pukara61 on October 14, 2008 at 11:39 AM

I am an atheist but I am willing to convert and pray to God for that possibility.

promachus on October 14, 2008 at 11:22 AM

I actually think if you are willing to pray at all, that makes you an agnostic. I’ll believe and we can both pray, how’s that?

petunia on October 14, 2008 at 11:41 AM

I got my uncle and his two sons to change their mind about Obama. So I got 3 more vote for McCain in NJ. I’m working hard to change people’s mind with facts.

pukara61 on October 14, 2008 at 11:39 AM

Great. However, you need to give them a ride to the polling station on Nov 4. Seems like folks minds are slowely forming a choice (your relatives notwithstanding), so it’s the TURNOUT that will matter most.

Why do you think ACORN is out in full force registering any potential Dem voter, dead or alive, that they can? They also have a massive “transportation” component where they will basically pick poeple up on election day and drive them to the polls (then drop them at the welfare office, ha).

Waterboy on October 14, 2008 at 11:43 AM

America’s Chickensssszzzssesss is coming home to rooooossssssttttttt!!111!!!!

leetpriest on October 14, 2008 at 11:20 AM

It occurs to me that if Obama wins… that saying will be useful everytime he makes a mistake… It might be a silverlining… I’m looking for those.

petunia on October 14, 2008 at 11:44 AM

I, too, believe that McCain will win. I didn’t think so until he selected Sarah Palin, and gave conservatives someone to vote for.

At the debate, he will once again be reaching for the independents and undecided. Don’t expect red meat for you, conservatives. He has your vote. He gave you Sarah. Now he means to win the election.

He will, too.

bonnie_ on October 14, 2008 at 11:46 AM

The real clear poll of polls used to be fairly reliable until the media started using it. Now, the Newsweek, WAPO, Time polls get thrown into the mix and skew it beyond belief.

If you are a poll-watcher: Try this: Average Rasmussen, Zogby, IDB/Tipp.

The others are worthless. Do that today and Obama is +4…

That sounds about right to me…the Quinnipiac polls out today are just RIDICULOUS.

joepub on October 14, 2008 at 11:49 AM

This isn’t the first time groups like ACORN have been caught in voter fraud, just the worst year I’ve ever seen.

In my own mind, I’ve been unable to balance this with the weighting given many of these survey designs. I wouldn’t be surprised if that was part of the goal for registering Mikey Mouse as written it the Tampabay article for example. Obviously they never intended to have Mikey show up at the polls.

Marine_Bio on October 14, 2008 at 11:55 AM

Democrats have often gone into polls ahead when they were trashed. It’s amazing that this country has been through two Bush elections and still wants to believe so badly in the false gods of polling.

The MSM and the polling whores lie. It’s as if they believe if they cook the numbers, people will vote that way.

Ignore the polls and vote. That is the only thing you have control over.

Hening on October 14, 2008 at 11:55 AM

All the pollsters seem to feel validated in treating this election differently than in the past.

To wit, Gallup/USA is using a new LV model that basically tells us that everyone who says they are going to vote will vote. That is a weird assumption, it has never been true before.

Anyway, the non-tracking poll shows a 5.5% lead for Obama with a error margin of 3%. But from their site:

Using Gallup’s traditional model of likely voters, Obama edges McCain 50%-46%.

Under an alternate model based solely on whether respondents say they plan to vote, his lead is 52%-45%.

Any other year the number they publish would be a 4% gap. But clearly they want to have an excuse to show 7%. Does having a black man run really change history that completely?

I wonder if this isn’t an attempt to produce a Bradley effect. Because that is certain to be the case if you use the higher number. At least Gallup is showing us the way they are treating this differently. Many of the others just pick a number.

petunia on October 14, 2008 at 12:03 PM

John Kerrey was a good closer. And he and McCain are both Vietnam war he —- LOL —– I can’t do it!

Leopold Stotch on October 14, 2008 at 12:07 PM

OT, but per the “headlines” (extended version, not the abbreviate version) and Rush’s web site, Sarah will be on Rush at 1:30 pm Eastern.

Y-not on October 14, 2008 at 12:13 PM

How is the Rep/Dem split determined?

Is it the last round of electeions?
Or is it current voter registration ratio?

If it’s the latter, it is likely distorted by the fact that the Democrats had a contested race much later than the Republicans did. Also there are the ACORN registrations and other irregularities.

MarkTheGreat on October 14, 2008 at 12:26 PM

My prayer is that we’re looking at the mother of all Bradley effects.

Kafir on October 14, 2008 at 12:27 PM

Someone at Wizbang reviewed the 2004 pre-election polls with the actual vote totals. In brief, it appears as though around 90% of the polls taken right before the election underestimated Bush’s vote totals by 3%-6%, with the other 10% overestimating. To be fair, a decent number also underestimated Kerry’s support, so I don’t know what to make of it except for the fact that we shouldn’t let polls determine our actions. So, you know, get out and vote instead of staying home and crying.

Physics Geek on October 14, 2008 at 12:46 PM

My prayer is that we’re looking at the mother of all Bradley effects.

Kafir on October 14, 2008 at 12:27 PM

Wouldn’t that make us a racist nation and pretty much affirm what Obama’s people claim a defeat means?

The better spin would be to call it a massive surge in undecided voters coming out and supporting McCain. I also happen to think that the more accurate analysis if it happens.

highhopes on October 14, 2008 at 1:09 PM

I prefer to reference the Bradley affect as voters being afraid to appear racist, so they tell the pollers what they believe the pollers want to hear.

Then vote their conscience.

MarkTheGreat on October 14, 2008 at 1:18 PM

The economic meltdown just kind of threw a wrench in things. I used to worry that Iraq would be the problem, now it is hardly mentioned. Well unless Obama is whining because Saddam is still not running the place.

Terrye on October 14, 2008 at 1:22 PM

But I have not given up.

Terrye on October 14, 2008 at 1:23 PM

Hank William Jr. singing for McCain/Palin.

That isn’t a big suprize and he has a place up in Montana.

http://sarah-palin-2008.blogspot.com/2008/10/httpwww.html

Dr Evil on October 14, 2008 at 1:25 PM

rightwingprof on October 14, 2008 at 11:37 AM

AMEN and AMEN and AMEN!

The Rassmussen/Fox poll that Fox kept, “Fox News Alert” we are all going to die last night, was taken on SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12th. And it was weighed 39.3% Dems to 33% Republicans. Everyone and their grandmother knows data gathered over the weekend is slanted toward the Democrat because Dems are the ones that answer the phones. Lord only knows how many RINOS answered in the “Republican” category when polled for this particular poll. They also are under weighing the numbers of Dems going to cross party lines and voting for McCain. The margin of error for this poll was +/- 3%. I say McCain is more than likely even, and in some cases ahead of Obama.

freeus on October 14, 2008 at 1:28 PM

John Zogby is a very blue Democrat and he went out of his way to warn people not to believe Obama has this won because of the polls.

In the next week the bias of the polls will change to closer reflect reality.

Elizabetty on October 14, 2008 at 2:29 PM

Hank William Jr. singing for McCain/Palin.

That isn’t a big suprize and he has a place up in Montana.

http://sarah-palin-2008.blogspot.com/2008/10/httpwww.html

Dr Evil on October 14, 2008 at 1:25 PM

Speaking of songs, here’s one for you:

BARRACUDA LADY

John McCain
Can you explain
Why you chose Sarah Palin?
A move so bold,
But you are old
And now your health is failin’.

When you are gone
A “hockey mom”
Is going to head our nation!
From what we’ve seen
This beauty queen
Will lead to devastation.

PTA?
Just no way…
Short time in office spent.
Barracuda lady,
Scandals, shady,
For our Vice President?

No thank you, sir!
We’re not for her.
We love our country so.
We’ll stand and fight
For what is right!

Shelby on October 14, 2008 at 3:10 PM

Thanks Bill Kristol–NOT! Apparently you are the genius that pushed McCain into choosing the incompetent Palin as his running mate! Now little Billy is telling McCain to fire his staff!

Kristol, you are a pathetic loser!!!

Palin’s Talent Scout
Oct. 10, 2008
by Scott Horton

“No wonder Bill Kristol has remained so positive about her while other neocons have fled. He helped push her to the veep ticket-and won out against Karl Rove.”

More:
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Palin-s-Talent-Scout-by-Scott-Horton-081010-701.html

Shelby on October 14, 2008 at 3:15 PM

jencab on October 14, 2008 at 11:02 AM

You’re exactly right jencab! I keep saying this to all I know that are getting depressed over the polls and are thinking of not voting because they think Obama has already won.

This is excatly the result the Obama campaign is hoping for, by using their in-the-tank media shills they are trying to discourage the right, independants, and undecided’s from going to the polls by convincing them Obama has already won and there is no hope!

Every vote counts and we need a strong turnout on Nov 4th, something the left is hoping to suppress with their biased polls, so show them (the media, lefties, et al) that we will not fall for their transparent tactics by getting out there and vote!

Liberty or Death on October 14, 2008 at 5:22 PM

I am confident McCain will win. jencab on October 14, 2008 at 11:02 AM

From your mouth to God’s ears.

When God puts the hammer down on a county He judges the just right alongside the unjust and everybody suffers. I hope we’re not about to fall under His judgment. That would not be fun.

Mojave Mark on October 14, 2008 at 9:55 PM

People don’t stay home and cry because they are demoralized – people stay home because they are mad and want to send a message to their party – like they did in 2006.

I think people are pretty motivated, and ticked off majorly with Obama’s Chicago Way.

Queen0fCups on October 14, 2008 at 10:31 PM

When God puts the hammer down on a county He judges the just right alongside the unjust and everybody suffers. I hope we’re not about to fall under His judgment. That would not be fun

and if Obama wins, that is exactly how I will view it.

The Mills of God.

Queen0fCups on October 14, 2008 at 10:32 PM

The so-called conservative pundits, just need to sound relevant.

Let John McCain be John McCain. I wish he were more aggressive, but that is not who he is.

As Rush said today, there are no independent voters. Anyone who says they are an independent is a Democrat in waiting – how can one not know what their core values are?

i think the polls are skewed because of the aggressive voter registrations from Acorn showing an incorrect number of registered Democrats – and I think we know how many of those are false.

Queen0fCups on October 14, 2008 at 10:35 PM