CBS/NYT: Obama 53, McCain 39
posted at 7:48 pm on October 14, 2008 by Allahpundit
The unweighted sample: 38.2 D, 30.3 R. Weighted: 37.4 D, 29.2 R. The overall margin is a hefty outlier, five points more than Gallup and fully nine points more than Rasmussen, but that’s about the only good news here.
Last week it was 48/45.
Judging by those numbers, I’m guessing the Ayers attacks aren’t helping much. The columns here are Total Voters, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, respectively:
Almost as many GOPers say they’re unbothered by Obama’s associations as those who say they’re bothered by Wright or Ayers. As for independents, The One leads by 18 points now — a 28-point swing in just one week. Part of that’s due to the debate, which registered voters say he won, 48/14, but part of it’s probably also due to the negativity backfiring.
The unkindest cut of all:
I think that’s the first time I’ve seen her net favorables negative. (McCain’s are also negative, at -5.)
Exit quotation from Team Maverick: “The financial tsunami has produced one of the most difficult and volatile times to conduct polling in modern times. During these uniquely volatile last few weeks, I have seen as much day-to-day movement as I have witnessed in my 20 plus year career as a pollster.”
Blowback
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I have it figured it out. For the Republicans they poll Kathleen Parker, Christopher Buckley, George Will, David Frum, Charles Krauthammer, and their friends and neighbors.
Jdripper on October 14, 2008 at 8:29 PM
That’s the point of these Obama-weighted polls, to set up the conditions that would induce Obama supporters to riot, as suggested by dem operatives like Carville and reported on Rush:
CARVILLE: Now, let me be clear here. If Obama goes in this race with a five-point lead and loses this election, the consequences are — oh, man. I mean I don’t think that’s going to happen, but I think David — it’s a point to bring up, but you stop and contemplate this country if Obama goes in and he has a consistent five-point lead and loses the election, it would be very, very, very traumatic out there.
RUSH: What does that mean? What does it mean to be very traumatic out there? Let me be clear here. Obama goes in this race five-point lead, loses the election, the consequences, bull, man, I mean I don’t think that’s going to happen, but I think, David, it’s a point to bring up, but you stop and contemplate this country if Obama goes in, he got a five point — very traumatic — he’s talking about riots. He’s talking about riots out there.
I don’t own a gun, but I have a garage full of gardening tools that I’m planning to sharpen.
Y-not on October 14, 2008 at 8:29 PM
You’re right. The basic numbers aren’t made up of whole cloth BUT this election is all about the the LIKELY VOTER screens. Most of the national polls that do spot polling (not rolling) use an extremely favorable screen of likely voters for Obama. They’re assuming all the money he’s pouring into GOTV will realize actual voters on election day. That may happen, but then again, the early voting numbers in Ohio were impressively underwhelming and underperforming, so the model may be actually more traditional, which puts McCain behind by 2-4%.
JonPrichard on October 14, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Oh please. A lot of people will not make up their minds for another week or two. A lot say they are voting for Obama but won’t. Who knows how they come up with these polls? Speaking of polls I would love to see a Texas only poll.
I’m not going to start worrying about worrying until November 5 and there may not be a reason to worry after that.
Guardian on October 14, 2008 at 8:32 PM
I don’t believe anything that CBS/NYT say’s, so why would I start now?
Mercy4Me on October 14, 2008 at 8:33 PM
pfffflllpppt….. {wiping off screen}
Not buying any of it.
tru2tx on October 14, 2008 at 8:33 PM
POWER TO THE PEOPLE…AFTER THE LAST DEBATE, FLIP THE TICKET…WE’VE GOT YOUR BACK, SARAH…
YOU ARE A GREAT MAN, JOHN MCCAIN, BUT THIS IS NO LONGER A FIGHT YOU CAN WIN…GIVE IT TO US
gracie on October 14, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Why are conclusions being drawn from an outlier poll?
aikidoka on October 14, 2008 at 8:34 PM
As more ACORN voter fraud comes up and the locals and Feds investigate will fewer people who registered to vote via ACORN show up to vote? Will they be afraid that they will be caught for the multiple voter registration forms they filled out?
albill on October 14, 2008 at 8:34 PM
I was thinking that exact same thing today. Let’s hope!
Vigilante on October 14, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Don’t be sucked in by this crap folks. CBS and the NYT are the most deceitful left wing propaganda machines in the business. This poll is significantly different than any other polling service and is most likely mathematical garbage. This trash will keep coming so don’t despair . . . go to the polls and cast the only votes that count.
rplat on October 14, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Drop dead kool aid drinker. You’re more disgusting than the Obama lemmings.
Obama’s short comings, and they are numerous, don’t enhance the attributes of McCain. People vote for what you have, not what you don’t have. When you realize this and the fact that McCain was, is and has always been a flawed candidate, you might be able to carry a board conversation without having to resort to name calling. Or is that what you consider clever banter?
voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 8:37 PM
The fundamental problem is twofold.
1st, when there are a high number of registered Democrats, even if way many of them are fraudulent, this provides a warping factor to polls. For example. For simplicity sake, assume I can double the number of registered Democrats, even if 100% of that doubling is fraudulent. Even if all 100% of those fraudulent registrations are thrown out when the votes are counted, BEFORE election day the pollsters will apply the doubling factor to the poll results. Therefore, the poll will show way more Democrats in favor of a candidate than Republicans (regardless of the ACTUAL NUMBER of people contacted for the poll) — because for a given geographic area the pollsters apply the demographic results as a WEIGHTING FACTOR to the poll.
2nd, it causes the Democrats to freak out and scream ELECTION FRAUD whenever the Republican wins — because after all there were way more REGISTERED democrats and “all the polls said” the Demonrat would win.
See the impact?
SunSword on October 14, 2008 at 8:37 PM
O’Reilly again, 2 losers sucking up to Ayers spewing redemption….both PHD’s in education….railing against the war in Iraq (complete with Bush lied people died)as some justification for the Ayers activities 40 years ago.. the liberal mind???? knows no bounds.
All Hail the Messiah
dmann on October 14, 2008 at 8:38 PM
“CBS/NYT”…..LOLOLOL!!
Anyone hear of a story about the boy who cried wolf?
christene on October 14, 2008 at 8:39 PM
An analysis from a Freeper:
his new CBS News/New York Times poll, which is being touted with a 14-POINT LEAD for Obama, up from THIREE POINTS in the same poll a week ago . . . IS A FRAUD!
A peek into the “internals” of the Poll (that is – where the numbers come from) shows this fraud:
Total Respondents 1070
UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED
Registered Voters 972 902
Democrats 371 338
Republicans 295 263
Independents 306 301
*Effective Likely Voters 699
*Every registered voter is included in the likely voter model, and is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters.
- – - – -
So… according to the data CBS/NYT is using, not only have they heavily oversampled Democrats over Republicans, but they had hideously oversampled Independants.
PLUS… they have defined ALL registered voters and being LIKELY voters, which any reputable pollster will tell you is nonesense.
TheBigOldDog on October 14, 2008 at 8:40 PM
IR-MN on October 14, 2008 at 7:52 PM
No. They should start saying things that resonate with voters.
DaveS on October 14, 2008 at 8:41 PM
yeah, just saw a McCain ads on Ayers here in NC. He must be running it because it works
jp on October 14, 2008 at 8:41 PM
Why on HotAir are you not LAUGHING at this poll? I mean, Allah…you pose this like it’s an indicator of some crazy mandate and we should all be getting our barcode soon , or something. 1) who are they even polling…no one ever asks me who I’m voting for! 2) Who in their right MIND thinks there are THAT MANY PEOPLE who would vote for this terrorist-propping egotistical dictator-in-training? The PUMA blogs are starting to sound a lot more realistic than you. At the least, optimistic.
Mommypundit on October 14, 2008 at 8:42 PM
if VOter ID turns out the same as what showed up in 2006 McCain wins easily. thats the big question, is voter ID suddenly way out of whack like post watergate?
jp on October 14, 2008 at 8:43 PM
Maybe we should all dress up like MIB, complete with shades, and just stand outside the poll locations with a clipboard and camera, intimidating the likely fraudulent voters.
The HotAir Team of Justice.
fogw on October 14, 2008 at 8:43 PM
lol, brilliant.
Spirit of 1776 on October 14, 2008 at 8:44 PM
For the first time in 18 years I went out today and bought:
40. cal handgun
1 long gun with scope.
long gun semi-auto.
1 shotgun.
All with allot of ammo.
Oh…btw, the shop was full of people of all races, creeds, colors and national origins, with a smile on their faces. I asked the owner haow business was, he smiled and said, “The best in years”.
Just sayen’
Over.
1GooDDaDDy on October 14, 2008 at 8:44 PM
I read your post to my husband (Carvell’s comments) and his response was “bring it on”.
Better go pick up a few equalizers while you still can, because if the big O gets in somehow, your options may be made for you.
tru2tx on October 14, 2008 at 8:45 PM
Mommypundit on October 14, 2008 at 8:42 PM
seriously, its like they are trying to ruin hotair the way Polipundit ruined his blog. Damn, atleast post all the other more legit polls in same thread showing a different ballgame. You look ridiculous posting a slanted Obama poll and pretend its legit.
I think he likes the anti-Palin part of the poll. Newsflash, if they go down this year she’s the front runner for nomination
jp on October 14, 2008 at 8:45 PM
I think they’re pulling these numbers out of their asses.
mindhacker on October 14, 2008 at 8:46 PM
as long as we get ear pieces
jp on October 14, 2008 at 8:46 PM
This reminds me of ’04 when NRO published those bogus exit polls in the middle of the day without every taking a second to look at the data which any moron could tell were completely ludicrous. Iirc they showed Ohio going like 80% for Kerry – ROFLMAO!
TheBigOldDog on October 14, 2008 at 8:47 PM
What makes you so sure about any of that?
No… they computed an effective sample size for likely voters… all it really does is open up the the margin of error for likely voters.
DaveS on October 14, 2008 at 8:48 PM
Crap…
ronsfi on October 14, 2008 at 8:48 PM
Moby?
IR-MN on October 14, 2008 at 8:50 PM
ACORN has compromised this election. Thousands of cases of fraudulent registering of voters, in several states.
This election has been compromised, and I don’t see people being hauled off in hand-cuffs. Forget these stupid agenda driven polls that HA/AP seems obsessed by, the damn election has been compromised/destroyed by an organization working freely within our own system. This organization has been funded by our Congress with our tax dollars, and they have ruined our free election!
Nothing else matters at this point. Polling data is useless. American politicians have taken our tax dollars and given them to an organization that has ruined the integrity of our democracy.
This is the only story that has any meaning at this point. I never thought I’d see the day when our own government set out to destroy our free election system. Why isn’t Bush screaming from a podium that ACORN has compromised this election. Damn folks, this is as bad as it gets.
Keemo on October 14, 2008 at 8:52 PM
voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 8:37 PM
McCain is flawed but he is not an enemy of the Constitution!
You and yours on the other hand are a clueless drones, sucking at the tit of socialism as YOUR only path to success. All Hail the Messiah, Hope and Change will herald the destrustion of America…..the price will be severe indeed!
dmann on October 14, 2008 at 8:52 PM
What’s the matter, can’t you read their own note? Wait, let me repeat if for you so you don’t miss it this time:
*Every registered voter is included in the likely voter model, and is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters.
TheBigOldDog on October 14, 2008 at 8:55 PM
So no we’re actually taking stock in CBS and the NYT? Sorry, that dog won’t hunt. This is yet another poll designed to influence, not reflect, opinion.
ejbentz on October 14, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Latest MSM poll:
Obama wins election three weeks early!
Every can stay home.
profitsbeard on October 14, 2008 at 8:56 PM
she’s getting a hundred a month from us for her PAC in that event…
sven10077 on October 14, 2008 at 8:56 PM
I couldn’t agree more – with everything you said. What does he have to lose? He could be out front on a lot of issues, it’s not like it’s going to hurt his poll numbers. Maybe he’s afraid of losing his third term.
fogw on October 14, 2008 at 8:57 PM
But judging from other numbers (polls that Mark1971 on October 14, 2008 at 7:51 PM has mentioned) they’re not hurting either Allah.
Because Allah wants to be like Matt Drudge? Drudge post all kinds of “off the wall” crap to draw attention to his site, but you rarely here from Drudge himself questioning the valididy of his links. Had Allah said “take this info for what it’s worth coming from the two most biased media outlets” and given Keemo’s examples, this post would have far more credibility and scrutiny than just a “brutal” reference.
Is McCain down 14 points or 4 points! Big difference!
Rovin on October 14, 2008 at 8:58 PM
I guess I had better go buy a couple more cases of ammo looks like the Halfricans supporters are going to go nuts when Sarahcuda kicks their asses.
dhunter on October 14, 2008 at 8:58 PM
No, I think it’s a substitution for not being able to choke your dumb ass….
BigWyo on October 14, 2008 at 8:58 PM
if Obama goes in and he has a consistent five-point lead and loses the election, it would be very, very, very traumatic out there.
Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Similar to what the British and French hear when they decide to actually enforce their laws on the muslim areas of their cities, “Don’t do that, you might inflame people who shouldn’t be inflamed, there’s no telling what might happen.”
Carville is threatening the same thing: if Odummy doesn’t get elected there will be a bunch of pissed-off people you don’t want to piss-off, so better you just vote Ogoofa.
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 8:59 PM
It’s CBS… it’s mid-Oct in a Presidential election year…
Fake but accurate?
Texas Rainmaker on October 14, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Look, I’m pessimistic and think McCain is going to lose, and even *I* believe those numbers are a crock of fossilized dino droppings.
Lincoln on October 14, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 8:59 PM
The sooner WE define what horror lies ahead the sooner the likes of Carville can run back to Yo mama….
Intimidation only works on those without principles!
dmann on October 14, 2008 at 9:04 PM
You certainly are ASSumptive aren’t you tool?
First of all I forgot more about capitalism than you will ever know or in your case regurgitate.
Second don’t talk Constitution with me when your candidate is the poster child for not defending our sovereignty and the rule of law.
Third your candidate doesn’t have a clue on the economy or capitalism which is why he advocates for socialistic remedies for the financial meltdown. Christ, Phil Gramm was his economic adviser, a staunch advocate for repealing Glass Steagal.
Fourth, you’re a kool aid drinking tool. Did I already say that?
voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 9:04 PM
And why on Earth would the CBS and New York Obama Times publish polls that seem to suggest that McCain should stop attacking the Anointed One?
It baffles the mind, it does.
A week from now, they’ll publish a poll saying that 105% of Indianapolis will vote for Obambi.
Sheesh… Put your big girl panties back on.
Misha I on October 14, 2008 at 9:05 PM
Troubling questions about McCain:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5wHnzQx81g
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 9:05 PM
One word………….. Propaganda.
Seven Percent Solution on October 14, 2008 at 9:06 PM
I don’t give this poll much credence.
Having said that, I do think that the American people are ready and willing to embrace socialism with both outstretched hands.
Lynn2008 on October 14, 2008 at 9:06 PM
Snooze. Yawn. Oh, wait, did you say CBS and the New York Times??? Oh Lawd, we doomed!!! NOT.
FalseProfit on October 14, 2008 at 9:07 PM
The sooner WE define what horror lies ahead the sooner the likes of Carville can run back to Yo mama….
Intimidation only works on those without principles!
dmann on October 14, 2008 at 9:04 PM
We’ve been trying, there are a great many people who don’t seem to care about Carpathia’s plans.
Intimidation also only works on those who aren’t capable of defending themselves; an Odummy administration might give us a chance to figure out who exactly is willing to defend.
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 9:08 PM
NORTH KANSAS CITY, MO. — A North Kansas City couple has been left scratching their heads after they became the victims of a political scam.
Steve and Rachel Larman say a strange credit card charge appeared on their statement this month — a $2300 donation to Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. The Larman’s say they don’t want this to be about their political affiliation, but they say they’re not about to give the Obama campaign any help from their pocketbook.
They said they notified Chase, their credit card bank, to report the fraud.
“(They) said that they had seen-they were familiar with this,” said Steve Larman. “It was fraud, they believe through telemarketing but they were going to be doing some more investigations.”
The Larman’s don’t want their politics to enter into what is essentially just a fraudulent charge. But they say that the charge involves the Obama campaign adds insult to injury for the registered Republicans.
“They (Chase) kept on asking me ‘are you sure you wouldnt have gone to a site in support of Obama’,” said Rachel Larman. “And I repeatedly said ‘Im voting for McCain – I would not be going to an Obama site’.”
Chase dropped the charge from the Larman’s card. The couple is thankful thay they caught the charge on the card, but worried that others may not see that type of fraud on their own credit cards before it’s too late.
“You always get emails saying be on the lookout,” said Rachel. “So I just wanted to get the word out, that there’s someone out there perpetrating this against people, and to pay attention.”
The Obama campaign said they were aware of the Larman’s story, but did not have any comment.
Every story that involves corruption, thuggery, and everything else bad, involves Obama.
Keemo on October 14, 2008 at 9:08 PM
There seems to be a lot of people in denial. I think that’s what Allah is emphasizing with these polls and the commentators rejection of them. It doesn’t mean, there won’t be a shock and McCain will win, but the odds seem against it at this moment.
It’s just amazing to me, that we have such a flawed, racist, Marxist, lying thieving weasel like Obama and McCain can’t adequately prepare a coherent attack against him that resonates with the voters.
Mister Ghost on October 14, 2008 at 9:10 PM
Lynn2008 on October 14, 2008 at 9:06 PM
Dream on… Socialism comes to this state, and it will be faced down with hot lead.
Keemo on October 14, 2008 at 9:10 PM
Too late Keemo, your president has already nailed down this country to socialism … 8 years of the chimp … has anything good happened?
Monkei on October 14, 2008 at 9:11 PM
ManlyRash on October 14, 2008 at 8:06 PM
AMEN! and AMEN! and AMEN!
Allah, could you at least terrorize us by giving us polls that we actually lend credibility to? I mean seriously!
And for the umpteenth time, if this took place on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday it it tainted. The people taking this poll are in the tank for THE ONE and love trying to depress us. What were the questions? Imagine how the questions play a role in skewing stuff!
I nominate Allah to torture all terrorist caught by the CIA who are held in undisclosed locations!
Your are giving me a headache! Now some of us are going to have to calm down some of the Base all over again. Just when they had put the razor blades away! UGH!
I demand Allah is no longer allowed to post evil polls EVAH again! I mean you might as well posted a poll from Europeans or something! And now I give you a poll from France that has Obama up by 99%! ARRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHHH!
freeus on October 14, 2008 at 9:12 PM
TheBigOldDog on October 14, 2008 at 9:12 PM
Gee, can it be any worse than the 8 years of horror we have just experienced? Highly doubtful.
Monkei on October 14, 2008 at 9:13 PM
Geez. Oh well, hunting season is starting early this year.
I reckon you fellows would like to truckpool to save gas, huh?
leetpriest on October 14, 2008 at 9:13 PM
Allah, keep up the good work. I support Allah’s posting of these polls. People tend to want to stick their heads in the sand and not face reality.
Mister Ghost on October 14, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Never mind. Found it.
TheBigOldDog on October 14, 2008 at 9:17 PM
Or because he is out of money and can’t make any other ones and the GOP is using the money for people who can actually win, like GOP senators who need it.
his commercials are working with the racist wingnuts on here, who claimed 8 months ago they would never EVER vote for McCain.
Monkei on October 14, 2008 at 9:17 PM
Hm. Gallup just called me.
At one point, they asked me some question where they said “regardless of which presidential candidate I planned on voting for, which did I think would better handle the following issues, Barack Obama or Joe Biden.”
I asked her to repeat the question, and she did.
Except the second time she said “Barack Obama or John McCain.”
Just a mistake, I’m sure.
MadisonConservative on October 14, 2008 at 9:18 PM
lol
Monkei on October 14, 2008 at 9:18 PM
Oh no! The POLL!
I guess I should ask my City Clerk to mail my absentee ballot back to me! There’s no point in voting now!
lansing quaker on October 14, 2008 at 9:19 PM
Skewed polls aside, if Obama wins, expect an “in your face” attitude from the left. Discourse in this country will hit rock-bottom all the way through inauguration day. I’m talking a rub your nose in it approach.
Most “moderates” and “independents” have no clue what has been bandied about these past 18 months. Few of them know of Wright, most dismiss Ayers because of past ad campaigns such as Willie Horton and Swift Boats Vets – they follow the lead of the MSM (nothing to see here, move along, move along).
…these “moderates” and “independents” have no idea what’s to come if Obama gets into office.
And of course, if McCain wins – something tells me the “angry white republican mob” won’t be the ones making headline news.
dugan on October 14, 2008 at 9:20 PM
voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 9:04 PM
Rewind if you can idiot…If you really believe this, regardless of McCains record of selfless sacrifice to our country, you suck dude, plain and simple, and did I mention “suck my balls” moron!
dmann on October 14, 2008 at 9:21 PM
Did Gallup ask you to pick the best word to describe Obama: dynamic, brilliant, inspirational or historic.
And then the best word to describe McCain: ornery, senile, Hitleresque or crypt-keeper-like.
Chuck Schick on October 14, 2008 at 9:22 PM
What is hard to believe is that apparently the majority of the voters are prepared to vote for someone who they know very little about and of whom they could not name one single accomplishment. All they have is what he says. He has been rammed down our throats in a very short span of time, leaving no time for anybody to really find out much about him (not that there is much of a record). What is worse, is that the public is not interested in finding out about a large number of very questionable relationships in his life, and not that many positive role models or mentors to speak of.
I don’t think that McCain announcing or discussing any policy proposals will change that. This election needs to be about Obama for McCain to have a chance. He needs to find a way to create cold feet in the potential Obama voters by really hammering on how little we know about him and how disturbing a lot of what we do know is.
neuquenguy on October 14, 2008 at 9:24 PM
Look back over the past few months and note the lack of enthusiasm by Allah regarding any potential good news regarding McCain/Palin. He’ll be the first to throw cold water on any positive news and the first to promote the bad news. I can’t figure it out…he either hates McCain because he’s not conservative enough or because he’s not moderate enough. It has to be one of those two, because the third possibility is too outrageous to consider…or is it?
Whippet on October 14, 2008 at 9:24 PM
his commercials are working with the racist wingnuts on here, who claimed 8 months ago they would never EVER vote for McCain.
Monkei on October 14, 2008 at 9:17 PM
You are not to speak. I don’t like you.
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 9:26 PM
Lol, that’s some tortured logic. McCain is too broke to make new ads, but rich enough to pay for the tv time to run old ones.
Don’t hire that poster as an accountant.
Spirit of 1776 on October 14, 2008 at 9:29 PM
“…his commercials are working with the racist wingnuts on here…”
Monkei on October 14, 2008 at 9:17 PM
Racisim is a fairly heinous charge. Proof please.
Drunken Angry Clown on October 14, 2008 at 9:29 PM
Channeling Margaret Thatcher…don’t get wobbly on me.
Disturb the Universe on October 14, 2008 at 9:29 PM
Wha an appropriate moniker. Squirrel, Spider or Capuchin?
ManlyRash on October 14, 2008 at 9:30 PM
That’s all you got you liberal republican? I kick your intellectual ass and you throw out the vet card? You’re no better than an Obama supporter throwing out the race card.
How many vets are in jail for committing crimes? Does their past service entitle them to amnesty (purposeful use of word)? Well toolio McCain’s military service, while not to be diminished, doesn’t solely qualify him for the office. Therein lies one of your many problems.
McCain can’t win trying to be more of a Democrat than Democrats. Let’s face it they’re better at it than him. Not running as a conservative doomed his candidacy. But that’s what makes him a maverick, right?
“suck my balls”, you’re a real class act. Grow up, think then post.
voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 9:32 PM
Obama tactics. YOU call US racists, and that makes us racists.
GFY Chimpy.
fogw on October 14, 2008 at 9:32 PM
Howler, perhaps.
AubieJon on October 14, 2008 at 9:32 PM
Wha an appropriate moniker. Squirrel, Spider or Capuchin?
ManlyRash on October 14, 2008 at 9:30 PM
Howler, perhaps.
AubieJon on October 14, 2008 at 9:32 PM
Regardless of species, it does appear to be appropriate given the scat he’s been tossing through the bars.
Drunken Angry Clown on October 14, 2008 at 9:34 PM
Typical monkei. Sits around scratching himself, and throws pure crap at the working masses.
Patrick S on October 14, 2008 at 9:35 PM
We will likely hear a lot after this election about the difference between reliability and validity in polling. Even if (shudder) Obamajebus wins, it will be by a whisker. It is also likely McCain will win.
Either case, there will be a lot of whingeing about the Bradley Effect. But the real reason will lie in the difference between reliability in polling and validity.
In order for polls to be reliable, or useful over a period of time, they must have their data collected in the same manner, and the raw data needs to be crunched the same way every year using the same standards and the same formulae. Validity is measured by how close the poll’s numbers call the ultimate election. Under most circumstances, validity comes through reliability.
For election polls, the factors that have always been used to weight polling data involve proportions of registered voters and attendance during the primaries. The 2008 election has had factors that could make both give bad data. The close ties between ACORN and Obama increase ACORN’s motivation to register Fluffy, Fido, and Charles Manson as Democrats. The hard-fought primary caused a lot of Democrats who normally skip primaries to show up.
This can explain the heavy Democrat weighting of polls noticed by Wizbang and others, and why the polls are closer than we think.
Sekhmet on October 14, 2008 at 9:36 PM
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 9:08 PM
We have to hand it to Dean the Democrats scream machine, winning regardless of the cost was and still is his mission. Posting a identity “Black” candidate was a wet dream for the liberal defeatist in America and sadly this tactic appears to have worked. Outside of Obama’s homey thugs most Americans will reject socialism once they realize what it costs. The question of the day is whether this epiphany occurs sooner rather than later.
Healing you will feel!
dmann on October 14, 2008 at 9:38 PM
I don’t believe the numbers. I live in Ohio. The Democrats houses have McCain signs this year. I think there are many people that resent Obama supporters shouting them down and being hateful and rude.
I don’t understand why Kathleen Parker and others go out of their way to talk negatively about McCain either. There is so much on the line this year. I think the country has too much to lose to not give it our all to support McCain/Palin.
tanmany2k on October 14, 2008 at 9:39 PM
I know the polls are ginned up but this is still not good. With ACORN out there, there will be enough dead people voting to turn this to the messiah.
Mojave Mark on October 14, 2008 at 9:40 PM
And can you remind me Monkei when the last piece of U.S. real estate crumbled to the ground since 9/11????
Yes, my liberal friend, it could have been far worse.
Rovin on October 14, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Will anyone at this site believe the actual election results when they roll in, or will those be biased by Teh MSM too?
cjw79 on October 14, 2008 at 9:41 PM
And what horror have you experienced Monkei? Fewer government handouts got you down?
Whippet on October 14, 2008 at 9:44 PM
And you actually believe cbs/nytimes is legitimate? Forget how cbs tried to throw the election with forgery’s last time? Watched any cbs news shows or read the ny times lately? Forget the ny times made up a story about mccain having an affair but blew off anything wrong with barry and ayers?
peacenprosperity on October 14, 2008 at 9:44 PM
Gee, can it be any worse than the 8 years of horror we have just experienced?
You typing from your cell in Cheney’s Underground Gulag System, or do you have the freedom, money and time to blog whenever you feel like it?
Hyperventilating and doing your best impression of Col. Kurtz probably isn’t the best manner in which to convince us that we are all lucky to have survived the last eight years.
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 9:45 PM
The year if the zombies
neuquenguy on October 14, 2008 at 9:45 PM
Will anyone at this site believe the actual election results when they roll in, or will those be biased by Teh MSM too?
cjw79 on October 14, 2008 at 9:41 PM
Except for the ACORN constituency, the people will have spoken for themselves rather than having the media do it for them.
Big difference. I’ll explain it to you if necessary.
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 9:46 PM
Does anyone see any Bob Barr or Ralph Nader numbers in this CBS/NY Times poll? I can’t find any references to the two major third party candidates.
In all other polls like Zogby, Barr and Nader are included and gain about 4% between the two of them. And the numbers for them make the race tighter, and slightly more favorable for McCain.
You have to wonder why CBS/NY Times would exclude Barr and Nader, both of whom are on the ballots in 45 and 46 states?
ericdondero on October 14, 2008 at 9:46 PM
TheBigOldDog on October 14, 2008 at 8:55 PM
Which effectively reduces the sample size, widening the margin of error.
Never taken a statistics class?
DaveS on October 14, 2008 at 9:48 PM
Pooooorrr Monkei. The big bad goverment hasn’t treated you like you feel you deserve for the past 8 years. What have you missed? You missed a paycheck? You missed tax cuts?
You missed more terrorist bombings and attacks on American soil? What have you missed, you whiney liberal piece of simian sh!t?
AubieJon on October 14, 2008 at 9:48 PM
Yawn . . . another day, another MSM bogus poll.
Here’s a letter to the RNC from a concerned PUMA:
http://www.puma08.com/2008/10/14/letter-to-the-republican-party-from-a-concerned-puma/
These people are really gutsy.
Ironically, I’ve drawn a lot of strength from them in this election cycle.
Weird!
Marybeth on October 14, 2008 at 9:52 PM
We can pretend this is an outlier, but things aren’t looking good. Yes, some polls only have McCain down by 6, but is that acceptable? This isn’t horseshoes. There are now no fewer than seven current national polls that show Obama with a double-digit advantage: Newsweek (+11), ABC/Post (+10), Democracy Corps (+10), Research 2000 (+10), Battleground (+13), Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model) and now this CBS News poll.
People need to start canvassing and phonebanking. less posting more working.
Trent1289 on October 14, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Never taken a ‘Journalism’ Class??
BigWyo on October 14, 2008 at 9:55 PM
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