CBS/NYT: Obama 53, McCain 39
posted at 7:48 pm on October 14, 2008 by Allahpundit
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The unweighted sample: 38.2 D, 30.3 R. Weighted: 37.4 D, 29.2 R. The overall margin is a hefty outlier, five points more than Gallup and fully nine points more than Rasmussen, but that’s about the only good news here.
Last week it was 48/45.
Judging by those numbers, I’m guessing the Ayers attacks aren’t helping much. The columns here are Total Voters, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, respectively:
Almost as many GOPers say they’re unbothered by Obama’s associations as those who say they’re bothered by Wright or Ayers. As for independents, The One leads by 18 points now — a 28-point swing in just one week. Part of that’s due to the debate, which registered voters say he won, 48/14, but part of it’s probably also due to the negativity backfiring.
The unkindest cut of all:
I think that’s the first time I’ve seen her net favorables negative. (McCain’s are also negative, at -5.)
Exit quotation from Team Maverick: “The financial tsunami has produced one of the most difficult and volatile times to conduct polling in modern times. During these uniquely volatile last few weeks, I have seen as much day-to-day movement as I have witnessed in my 20 plus year career as a pollster.”
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Intended to demoralize but it is not going to work.
carbon_footprint on October 14, 2008 at 7:49 PM
ROFLMAO … and just can’t stop.
tarpon on October 14, 2008 at 7:50 PM
USA Today/Gallup released today has Obama +4 among likely voters. Drudge is reporting that Zogby will also show +4 in his tracking poll tomorrow.
Mark1971 on October 14, 2008 at 7:51 PM
Maybe Americans are stupider than me thought or they have the sample heavily waited with Acorn registered voters.
Jamson64 on October 14, 2008 at 7:51 PM
A crash on Wall Street will do that to you, yes it will.
bnelson44 on October 14, 2008 at 7:51 PM
“Don’t stop believing”…
m064404 on October 14, 2008 at 7:51 PM
The Acorn Poll.
bloggless on October 14, 2008 at 7:51 PM
Palin should mock this poll at one of her New Hampshire rallies. Really, Mac/Palin should just start mocking these MSM polls. LA Times/ABC-WashP/CBS-NYT all have it as a blowout, while the tracking polls have Mac behind by about 6. It’s time to call crap, crap.
IR-MN on October 14, 2008 at 7:52 PM
well I’ll do my part ot help Mav to the finish line but the fact is he lacks the will and panache and instincts to force the donks to claim this their baby of a hiccup….
nice thing is the donks will have total ownership of the implosion they cause raising tqaxes while gifting “refundable credits” and increasing spending….
Argentina here we come!
sven10077 on October 14, 2008 at 7:52 PM
I’ll take your CBS/NYT poll and I’ll raise you a Zogby:
ZOGBY WEDNESDAY: OBAMA 48%, MCCAIN 44%… DEVELOPING…
So, either the Mav’s down by 14 or he’s down by 4.
Hmm. Sounds like people shouldn’t put much weight in these polls after all, hmm?
powerpro on October 14, 2008 at 7:52 PM
I am guessing CBS and the NYT had a ” I had a dream ” moment.
Jamson64 on October 14, 2008 at 7:52 PM
What I want to know is: WHAT’S THE FREQUENCY KENNETH?
bloggless on October 14, 2008 at 7:52 PM
This is such BS. Really, it would be like this if McCain were winning.
Yeah McCain is losing, and it is not good (and it could eventually get worse than 13), but not 13 now. Stop being a bunch of wussies. And it could shift enough so he ends up winning on November 4.
Mr. Joe on October 14, 2008 at 7:53 PM
Investors Business Daily had a poll yesterday showing Obama ahead by two.
I don’t know much about polls, so can’t judge the methodology, but there is a lot of info at the link about how they conducted it.
JiangxiDad on October 14, 2008 at 7:53 PM
I know things are trending Obama’s way, but an eight-point difference in party registration is just implausible.
Slublog on October 14, 2008 at 7:53 PM
The Investors Business Daily has launched a new poll of ‘likely voters’ with the TIPP organization, and it shows the race MUCH CLOSER: JUST 2%:
IBD/TIPP Polls
Could CBS be skewing things to discourage Republicans? The ghost of Rather may be alive and well there.
MrLynn on October 14, 2008 at 7:53 PM
these polls aren’t worthy of a blog posting on a conservative blog, only the pro-Obama polls are
jp on October 14, 2008 at 7:54 PM
Last week the CBS poll had Obama +3. Should we accept an 11 point change in just a week?
Mark1971 on October 14, 2008 at 7:54 PM
Question from Bob Schieffer at the debate: “Sen. McCain, since our infallible poll shows you hopelessly behind, why won’t you concede right now?”
Wethal on October 14, 2008 at 7:54 PM
this polls has a good track record as well
jp on October 14, 2008 at 7:54 PM
Most polls are biased but this is just laughable.
Kronos on October 14, 2008 at 7:55 PM
Yawn, another rigged poll from a liberal media outlet intended to trick Republicans into not coming out to the polls. Allah, wake me up when you have something important to post….
eyedoc on October 14, 2008 at 7:55 PM
Don’t panic, people. Keep talking with your leaner friends and make sure to vote.
Y-not on October 14, 2008 at 7:55 PM
I would be more impressed to see the
numbers in crayon!
53 to 39?
Its around 5 points!
Deception/Perception/HopeLess&ChangeLess/Gaffebiden/08
canopfor on October 14, 2008 at 7:55 PM
Sorry, I don’t buy it. Both CBS and NYT are invested in an Obama victory.
Meant to demoralize but I’m not buying it. Truthfully the only people I know who have come out for “The One” are dolts in their every day life.
I refuse to believe the US is that full of those type.
FireBlogger on October 14, 2008 at 7:55 PM
That’s funny. It’s really time for the GOP pundits/candidates/etc to start using these polls as a punchline.
IR-MN on October 14, 2008 at 7:57 PM
This poll just doesn’t match any of the others that are out there. Maybe this is one of those that over poll democrats.
KBird on October 14, 2008 at 7:57 PM
Doesn’t the 10% more Dems polled equate to 10 points more in the poll likely to choose Obama. Subtract that 10 points and you get 43 Obama and 39 McCain. That leaves 18 idiots who actually respond to polls. :)
Nelsa on October 14, 2008 at 7:57 PM
I just took an objective poll of my own along Martin Luther King Blvd (you know… every town has one…. they name a street that to help realtors out in not having to name “that” part of town… wink wink).
The scientific results of that poll are:
Obama/Palin – 110%
McCain/Reagan – -10%
I used ACORN to help with my poll….
CC
CapedConservative on October 14, 2008 at 7:57 PM
Well,I’m off to vote in a Canadian Conservative!!
Well see,shortly, how our polls reflected tonights
outcome!
canopfor on October 14, 2008 at 7:58 PM
I still think McCain needs to go more negative. With Ayers he didn’t provide a consistent message(Ex. Obama associations = dangerous president, that you need to be afraid of). He has to make people uncomfortable with Obama again. If he doesn’t do that he loses. Bring on Wright I say.
Complete7 on October 14, 2008 at 7:58 PM
HA HA HA HA HA. What a joke. HA HA HA.
jencab on October 14, 2008 at 7:58 PM
And why exactly would you pick the worst poll to post?
Why not blog about how polls are all over the place and talk about them all?
El Rushbo warned that the media would use polls to shape public opinion for the weeks leading up to the election and I find it extremely disturbing that we seem to have folks actively abetting their efforts.
Report them all and in context or don’t report them at all.
powerpro on October 14, 2008 at 7:58 PM
Ouch baby, very ouch. But 3 weeks, and 1 real poll in Nov.
Spirit of 1776 on October 14, 2008 at 7:58 PM
Maybe he is down by 9?
mycowardice on October 14, 2008 at 7:59 PM
State polls are all that matter. And Obama is winning those at the moment.
lorien1973 on October 14, 2008 at 8:00 PM
Ok, my stupid question for the day….when the ACORNS of the world register voters, doesn’t this include party affiliation, and if so wouldn’t they damn near all be Dems, and if so again, wouldn’t this serve to waaaaay overweight the polling?
Patrick S on October 14, 2008 at 8:00 PM
They were full of crap then, too.
I wouldn’t come to that conclusion based on the CBS poll. McCain’s behind by just 5 in Rasmussen. That’s up from recently.
It’s also a poll of registered — not likely — voters, if I’m reading it correctly.
amerpundit on October 14, 2008 at 8:00 PM
This is worth repeating, I think. Because the media bias has been so terrible, the polls are viewed extremely skeptically as well.
Spirit of 1776 on October 14, 2008 at 8:01 PM
I’m not particularly optimistic (outside of counting on racist old Democrats turning out against Obama), but FWIW, American Research Group says 50/45
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
RightWinged on October 14, 2008 at 8:02 PM
This is the NYT of Jayson Blair and the CBS of Dan Rather, right? Not a different NYT or CBS?
53/39….yeah, sure.
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 8:02 PM
Can’t wait to see the gnashing of teeth and rending of clothing in the media after Johnny Mac and Sarahcudda win this thing. I can hear it now – “…but the polls had The One up by 14!” Ahhhh that will be a sweet, sweet day watching the main stream morons imploding on Nov 5th.
Drunken Angry Clown on October 14, 2008 at 8:03 PM
So, we’re pretty sure they’re just making up numbers, now?
Editor on October 14, 2008 at 8:04 PM
This happens in ever election, history is repeating itself..
Cr4sh Dummy on October 14, 2008 at 8:04 PM
This has to be an outlier – I can’t believe the independents would swing that wildly – but it’s clear (original, I ain’t) that the economic crisis is just insurmountable for McCain.
No Republican candidate in this environment can overcome a shaky economy. Not to mention the press et al.
McCain’s simply facing the perfect storm.
SteveMG on October 14, 2008 at 8:04 PM
Regardless, I’m smart enough to hedge my bets on the election result and will be moderately prepared for an Odorka presidency.
Anyone who says that Ofool wouldn’t radically change anything is deluding themselves, the man is a serious danger.
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 8:06 PM
LOL. A week from now the Drive-Bys will be reporting that Obama leads McCain by 35 points, 62% / 38% (2% not yet registered by ACORN) in a poll conducted in the midde of the night by calling 177 voters, of whom 82% were Democrats, 12% were Independents and 6% were Republicans.
ManlyRash on October 14, 2008 at 8:06 PM
How accurate is any poll where non-affiliated with R or D is over 30 percent?
30 percent independent voters 3 weeks to go?
Garbage.
The agenda to this NYT poll is the McCain “is he erratic” question- yeah, thats not push-polling is it!
jjshaka on October 14, 2008 at 8:06 PM
Another day, another Allah post where he finds the most dire poll possible to plaster on the site and claim the election is already lost.
Meanwhile, others like myself will do something CONSTRUCTIVE like, you know, working to get out the Republican vote instead of suppress it.
Exit question: when does Allah’s endorsement of Obama come, and will he get prime time on Hardball to discuss it?
Vyce on October 14, 2008 at 8:07 PM
Folks, don’t ignore the polls(except maybe this one)… we’re behind…
The McCain campaign is completely incoherent… nothing works together… there’s little inspiring about it at all… it’s message is boiler point sentiment… McCain is acting like an out of touch bureaucrat which represents the interests of both government and corporations… Palin is constrained by that and she exacerbates McCain’s faults with her own faults… he’s acting like a manager with added “pep” not a leader… . there is no call to action for the individual in any of the proposals(except maybe health care)…
ninjapirate on October 14, 2008 at 8:07 PM
but the polls had The One up by 14!” Ahhhh that will be a sweet, sweet day watching the main stream morons imploding on Nov 5th.
Drunken Angry Clown on October 14, 2008 at 8:03 PM
They won’t go that quietly, I suggest a gun or two. Or three.
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 8:07 PM
I’m sure the numbers gave somebody we know a stiffy.
Blake on October 14, 2008 at 8:07 PM
No, they don’t make up numbers. They just rig the poll so they get the numbers they want.
eyedoc on October 14, 2008 at 8:08 PM
This race was over before it even began.
That happens when you run an incompetent candidate that alienates the base of voters he so desperately needs to win.
Are you happy now RNC?
voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Outlier, even on a weekend and with a 4% MoE.
The Gallup Poll numbers are sorta amusing also, as they have O+9 among RVs, O+6 among traditional LVs — but among the super-new expanded Lightworker LV mdel, it’s O+10!
Karl on October 14, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Of course not. After all, we are talking about CBS. Absolutely trustworthy, no?
ManlyRash on October 14, 2008 at 8:09 PM
anyone thought this is bogus, to try and spook mccain from going after ayers and wright? wonder if internals turn out as stupid nad out there as the newsweek poll
jp on October 14, 2008 at 8:10 PM
If they keep printing these polls too favorable to Obama, they’re going to have to cut the rate of the 1/2 hour he bought from them….because why does he need it if he’s winning so handily?
wildweasel on October 14, 2008 at 8:10 PM
Who the hell are they Polling, everyone in Manhattan?
Dritanian on October 14, 2008 at 8:11 PM
These numbers are getting so ridiculous. They reek of fauxness. I think we’ve found where the bubble has moved to.
progressoverpeace on October 14, 2008 at 8:11 PM
Mac says it’s 6 points. 6 points it is. That’s surmountable.
Spirit of 1776 on October 14, 2008 at 8:11 PM
Whatever! With that same rationale you could make the argument that the very day that the major polls tightened towards a Republican, the market posted a record gain of +900
It all says one sad thing and that is that bad news in America is good news to the DemoRats and ODumbo! No shame.
OSUBuciz1 on October 14, 2008 at 8:12 PM
I’ve been voting since 1968 and have been on this planet since 1946.
I have NEVER been polled. None of my relatives have EVER been polled. None of my close friends have EVER been polled.
So just who is getting polled?
fogw on October 14, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Of that number, 5 is due to the Bradley Effect. Bambi is toast.
ManlyRash on October 14, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Go to the pdf file on the CBS page and look at the stupid statement at the very bottom! Enough said….its crap.
OSUBuciz1 on October 14, 2008 at 8:13 PM
It’s time for Operation Chaos 2.0. Donate to Nader.
RightOFLeft on October 14, 2008 at 8:14 PM
BTW, the fact that q4 was held for future release is… interesting. Normally a section of a poll might be withheld; rarely a question before you ask voting preference.
Karl on October 14, 2008 at 8:14 PM
Allah,
If by “brutal” you mean “fictional” then you are absolutely right.
It’s a lot like attending a 5-4 baseball game in the 8th inning and having someone tell you the radio announcer said the game’s already over and your team lost 6-2.
Funny… It still looks like the 8th inning to me.
rihar on October 14, 2008 at 8:14 PM
voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Get a grip, this is what happens when you run an identity candidate playing on emotion while knowing the MSM has your back. F the media, F the Democrats and F Obama, and FU!
dmann on October 14, 2008 at 8:14 PM
Jeez. Let’s just have the goddamned election so we can finally be rid of the freakin’ polls.
I mean, really. 4 up one day, 11 up the next, 2 down the next. Holy cow, are we a nation of schizophrenics or are all of the polls just bullshit.
BacaDog on October 14, 2008 at 8:14 PM
It reminds me on saturday night live skit DA BEARS DA BULLS. You have hardcore bears/bulls fans
predict who will win between the bears or the bbulls vs the opposing teams. Thats what these polls reminds me BEARS 80 PACKERS 0.
jaboba on October 14, 2008 at 8:15 PM
Yeah, reports of McCain’s demise are considerably premature. Especially so if the market stabilizes.
Spirit of 1776 on October 14, 2008 at 8:15 PM
As reported on ABC World News Tonight this evening, Obama is going to need a 10 point cushion in the polls to win because Americans are racist. Looks like he has that and then some.
Valiant on October 14, 2008 at 8:16 PM
I don’t doubt the numbers. The only hope McCain has is that all the Obama supporters are too busy playing xbox to go vote that day.
tlynch001 on October 14, 2008 at 8:16 PM
Yes
Rod on October 14, 2008 at 8:17 PM
This poll is a clear attempt to get
McCain/PalinPalin/McCain to back off the Ayers, ACORN stuff!I tell ya, McCain should smoke this assh*** in an election! It shouldnt even be close. If it werent for the liberal press, it wouldnt even be close! McCain would win with 65%! AND THE PRESS KNOW IT!
OSUBuciz1 on October 14, 2008 at 8:17 PM
A single national poll with only 1070 respondents is worthless. Only 972 self-identified as registered.
And I can just imagine the kind of pollsters that CBS or the NYT hires.
Here’s another thing to consider: were the calls done mostly during the day or at night? Daytime calls will produce higher Obama signals – students, unemployed, women.
The large tracking polls are more reliable.
Kenrod on October 14, 2008 at 8:17 PM
Isn’t CBS the network that got over-anxious and gave us ‘Rathergate,’ in 2004? I have no doubt Obama is ahead, but that far ahead?
Renae on October 14, 2008 at 8:18 PM
F’s, that is exactly what your candidate has earned in every conceivable category and it is reflected in the polls. But hey if spouting F’s helps you cope with the miserable reality you are faced with, then go with it man.
voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 8:19 PM
This is just silly. Did they have Jay Leno do a “Man on the Street” poll.
the_stoics on October 14, 2008 at 8:19 PM
Since its the NYT, “The Paper of Record”, we all know it as to be “the truth”. Yeah. I’ve got fish that wouldn’t be caught dead in that paper.
GarandFan on October 14, 2008 at 8:20 PM
This poll was taken of the 1043 remaining employees of the NY Times.
faraway on October 14, 2008 at 8:20 PM
Well alright then.
If that’s the case I hope they show Bambi up by 20 on November 3rd. The fools who believe them will think it’s in the bag and stay home.
BacaDog on October 14, 2008 at 8:21 PM
Awwwww, this little Obama supporter is so cute.
m064404 on October 14, 2008 at 8:21 PM
Not buying a 14-point margin. Of course, it’ll be the lead story the next 24 hours leading into the debate…which the media will declare an easy win for Obama no matter what.
JammieWearingFool on October 14, 2008 at 8:21 PM
I take these polls very lightly. We all know that the media is in the tank for Obama…having said that, shouldn’t that be worth about 15 points or so?
So, where does this really leave McCain? Looks like some of that fuzzy math to me. I think the McCain/Palin ticket is doing way much better than these “polls” claim.
Just my 2¢
Hal on October 14, 2008 at 8:21 PM
OT in away, Beckel on O’Rielly…..beyond a total AHOLE: absolute semen extracting tool waiting agape for the Messiah to drop on by!
dmann on October 14, 2008 at 8:22 PM
Just imagine the screeching that’s going to take place if McCain wins…They just set up a whole lot of belly aching with these bullshit polls…
Let the riots commence!!!
CBS/NYT?!?!?
*snicker*
Why not just say National Enquirer/Entertainment Tonight…
or Chaves/Castro….
BigWyo on October 14, 2008 at 8:22 PM
DITTO
I hope after ODumbo loses he gets a bunk next to Rezko!
If I believe anything it is that the PUMA crowd is being polled and they are offsetting these silly polls. They are voting for McCain and ODumbo doesnt even see it coming.
OSUBuciz1 on October 14, 2008 at 8:23 PM
Daytime calls will produce higher Obama signals – students, unemployed, women.
Also prisoners on work release, mental patients, drifters.
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 8:24 PM
All I have to say about this poll and any poll, and it has been said by others prior to me, I still have never had a single pollster call me…and neither has anyone I know, Rep. or Dem. I would hang up on them, but still, no call.
Vigilante on October 14, 2008 at 8:25 PM
CBS/NYT poll…
Why would you give space to a poll created by CBS/NYT; both of which are guilty of “shaping the news” to fit an agenda that shoves Liberalism down our throats; both of which are guilty (in recent times I might add) of fabricating news stories, fabricating documents in an effort to sway an election; one of which is guilty of blowing the cover off a top secret program that involved several countries and put Americans at risk. The list of wrong doings is too long for a single post.
Why would you give such organizations space (importance) here at HA?
Keemo on October 14, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Hey, didn’t Evan Thomas say that media support would be worth 15 points?
Why is our racist media denying Obama a percentage point!?!?!?
Slublog on October 14, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Obama advert on O’Reilly slamming McCain’s policy on healthcare! FNC is shameless whore given their rep. with the Democrats…..suck it up boys!
dmann on October 14, 2008 at 8:26 PM
The interior, and far more precise, polling is showing a closer race, you can see that in the reaction of Obarfo and his media whores to everything that Mac and Palin say.
There is a reason they don’t want Mac talking about ACORN or Ayers, because it’s having an effect.
Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 8:27 PM
The only way we’ll know if these MSM polls are having an effect on the population is whether the tracking polls over the next week go back toward The One. If IBD/Zogby/Rasmussen don’t show that, then the power of the MSM polls is not that great. Remember, we’re political junkies and we pay attention. The normals could care less what Katie says.
IR-MN on October 14, 2008 at 8:27 PM
I love the fact that McCain supposedly is heading down for his “attacks” on Obama (and by attacks, I mean criticism of course), but NOTHING harms him when it comes to the left lying and smearing about Governor Palin.
Haunchie on October 14, 2008 at 8:27 PM
McCain/Palin have a tall task in front of them. There are 8 battleground states that McCain/Palin must win. FL,WV,OH,VA,CO,NC,IN,MO. If Obama wins just one on this list, it’s over. He’ll be over the 270 mark. Not impossible for McCain/Palin, but based on the polls in those states right now, it’s unlikely.
the_stoics on October 14, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Damn…finally someone older than me on this blog. I feel younger already.
Like you, I’ve never been “poled” either.
I guess our opinion doesn’t mean much to these folks at the M$M in the end.
Over.
1GooDDaDDy on October 14, 2008 at 8:27 PM
voiceof
reasonTREASON on October 14, 2008 at 8:19 PMthats far more accurate, puke!
dmann on October 14, 2008 at 8:28 PM
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