CBS/NYT: Obama 53, McCain 39

posted at 7:48 pm on October 14, 2008 by Allahpundit

The unweighted sample: 38.2 D, 30.3 R. Weighted: 37.4 D, 29.2 R. The overall margin is a hefty outlier, five points more than Gallup and fully nine points more than Rasmussen, but that’s about the only good news here.

Last week it was 48/45.

Judging by those numbers, I’m guessing the Ayers attacks aren’t helping much. The columns here are Total Voters, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, respectively:

Almost as many GOPers say they’re unbothered by Obama’s associations as those who say they’re bothered by Wright or Ayers. As for independents, The One leads by 18 points now — a 28-point swing in just one week. Part of that’s due to the debate, which registered voters say he won, 48/14, but part of it’s probably also due to the negativity backfiring.

The unkindest cut of all:

I think that’s the first time I’ve seen her net favorables negative. (McCain’s are also negative, at -5.)

Exit quotation from Team Maverick: “The financial tsunami has produced one of the most difficult and volatile times to conduct polling in modern times. During these uniquely volatile last few weeks, I have seen as much day-to-day movement as I have witnessed in my 20 plus year career as a pollster.”


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Comments

Judging by those numbers, I’m guessing the Ayers attacks aren’t helping much.

Judging by those numbers, I’m guessing this poll is BS.

xblade on October 14, 2008 at 9:56 PM

suck my balls”, you’re a real class act. Grow up, think then post.

voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 9:32 PM

Awesome, again for the intellectually challanged “suck my balls” I challenged your belief system, you curse the freedom of choice. Predictably the best you can do is cite vets in jail and diminish McCains service? Losers are losers, dead is dead, De Niro said it best in DeerHunter whilst holding the .30-06 this is this, victumhood, signup today, checks in the mail! McCain and all his short comings certainly warrents my vote, what say you?

dmann on October 14, 2008 at 9:58 PM

A CBS/NYT TIMES poll? Allah, wake me when you have the BBC/Al Jazeera poll. They are usually right on the money.

Keep pissing of your readers with these bogus polls and making excuses for “intellectual genius” like Bill Buckley’s son and most of your readers will be long gone before you people at HotAir can say “litmus test”. As matter of fact, “my litmus test” is if you people at HotAir refuse to do whatever you can to defeat this marxist, Obama, I will be gone.

RMR on October 14, 2008 at 9:59 PM

AubieJon on October 14, 2008 at 9:48 PM

AubieJon, word of warning—–feeding this particular Hominidae can be hazardous……and infectious. Wear protective gear at all times.

Rovin on October 14, 2008 at 10:00 PM

Look back over the past few months and note the lack of enthusiasm by Allah regarding any potential good news regarding McCain/Palin. He’ll be the first to throw cold water on any positive news and the first to promote the bad news. I can’t figure it out…he either hates McCain because he’s not conservative enough or because he’s not moderate enough. It has to be one of those two, because the third possibility is too outrageous to consider…or is it?

Whippet on October 14, 2008 at 9:24 PM

Why do some posters feel the need to shoot the messenger? Why is Allah a traitor because he posts something that is not good news?
Do you punch your mail man when he gives you bills? Grow the hell up. Plugging your ears doesn’t make bad news cease to exist.

Trent1289 on October 14, 2008 at 10:01 PM

Allah must be stopped. There are people looking at this and go into actual despair! I think we must have an intervention with the Allah!

freeus on October 14, 2008 at 10:04 PM

There are more to these polls than meets the eye:

http://www.puma08.com/2008/10/09/pumas-dont-forget-to-say-you-are-voting-for-barack-obama-if-polled/

Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 10:07 PM

There are more to these polls than meets the eye:

http://www.puma08.com/2008/10/09/pumas-dont-forget-to-say-you-are-voting-for-barack-obama-if-polled/

Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 10:07 PM

Too funny Bishop! I love it!

Rovin on October 14, 2008 at 10:12 PM

Pooooorrr Monkei. The big bad goverment hasn’t treated you like you feel you deserve for the past 8 years. What have you missed? You missed a paycheck?

Yeah, like he has a job, lol. Monkey boy is just another loser who can’t wait to board the hand-out train. And for the ultimate in irony, he calls us racist, despite it being his candidate who actually sat in a racist, anti-semitic church for 20 years.

“White man’s greed runs a world in need”. Yeah, Conservatives are the racists, lol

Welcome to the freak show.

xblade on October 14, 2008 at 10:13 PM

There are more to these polls than meets the eye:

http://www.puma08.com/2008/10/09/pumas-dont-forget-to-say-you-are-voting-for-barack-obama-if-polled/

Bishop on October 14, 2008 at 10:07 PM

Does anybody have any idea what the actual number of pumas might be? I know they say there are millions, but is there any way of knowing even what the ballpark is?

neuquenguy on October 14, 2008 at 10:14 PM

rent1289 on October 14, 2008 at 9:54 PM

Dude, those polls suck. Focus on Rasmussen, Zogby and IBD/Tipp. Maybe the Gallup too.

The others are trash done to make “news”.

Relax, we are in this thing.

joepub on October 14, 2008 at 10:17 PM

Does anybody have any idea what the actual number of pumas might be? I know they say there are millions, but is there any way of knowing even what the ballpark is?

neuquenguy on October 14, 2008 at 10:14 PM

I’ve heard estimates from 2 million to as many as 7 million.

Which means most likely somewhere in between.

Marybeth on October 14, 2008 at 10:17 PM

Trent1,
And covering your eyes makes reading comprehension difficult. So open them up. I never called Allah a traitor, and I have no problem with hearing the bad news, just commenting on Allah consistently being the downer of the group. Touch a nerve?

Whippet on October 14, 2008 at 10:18 PM

Awesome, again for the intellectually challanged “suck my balls” I challenged your belief system, you curse the freedom of choice. Predictably the best you can do is cite vets in jail and diminish McCains service? Losers are losers, dead is dead, De Niro said it best in DeerHunter whilst holding the .30-06 this is this, victumhood, signup today, checks in the mail! McCain and all his short comings certainly warrents my vote, what say you?

dmann on October 14, 2008 at 9:58 PM

There is no basis in any of my posts that justify your specious claims.

I tried to give you the benefit of the doubt lib. But there is no doubt. You are truly an ass.

While you ponder that, learn to spell “warrants” tool.

voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 10:20 PM

Trent1289 on October 14, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Yo, Ap’s job is to post on a very conservative website, whilst we all respect his right to take and exploit intellectual license, he seems to go out of his way to rub the cat the wrong way. While this will in theory stimulate debate, AP seems to relish in sticking thorns into the eyes of those that butter his bread. One might be inclinded to use “wife beater” as an appropriate analogy.

dmann on October 14, 2008 at 10:21 PM

and “victumhood”

Whippet on October 14, 2008 at 10:23 PM

Some word for the CBS/NYT “poll”: disinformation; propaganda; baloney.

Phil Byler on October 14, 2008 at 10:28 PM

O/T:

Someone’s got to get the ranting on Olbermann scolding McCain for insighting riots in his campaign. It’s a classic Ober-the-top-brings-tears-to-yur-eyes laughing stock diatribe. This is the biggist frikkin moron in the broadcast media……bar none.

Rovin on October 14, 2008 at 10:34 PM

Any news on the Pravda poll?

Jim Treacher on October 14, 2008 at 10:35 PM

Does anybody have any idea what the actual number of pumas might be? I know they say there are millions, but is there any way of knowing even what the ballpark is?

neuquenguy on October 14, 2008 at 10:14 PM

Nah. It’s a pretty amorphous group. There are PUMAs and then there are “Hillary Clinton voters.” More are the latter, and they don’t really talk much about the race.

The meme I hear most when I press is “I don’t like either candidate. I hate Obama, and I don’t trust McCain (or Palin, depending).”

Of course, Obama supporters are now more than happy to praise Hillary as the greatest politician ever. I’ve even heard friends of mine — Obama supporters who TRASHED me over supporting Hillary in the primaries — try to say “I really voted for Hillary in the primary, but I just didn’t want to say it because of all that vocal Obama support!” as some sort of psych-warfare. Thanks, but no thanks.

Most Hill voters are on the down low. Naturally a lot will go “Democrat” but no one I’ve talked to is happy about it one bit. So I keep working my vocal PUMA magic to get them to remember what a sham Obama was, and continues to be.

lansing quaker on October 14, 2008 at 10:35 PM

time to start planning for Republican Revolution II in 2010…..

Noneya on October 14, 2008 at 10:38 PM

voiceofreason on October 14, 2008 at 10:20 PM

Nice, lets scrum over semantics and spelling, I think spurious would have been far more chillin’ than specious,but then again your a moron, so be it! I’ll ponder your need to avoid answering a very simple question and can only conclude you will suckle at the bosom of Obama socialism, rather than defend freedom and all its inherant fallibilities.

dmann on October 14, 2008 at 10:40 PM

I didn’t know that CBS and NYT are partners in the manufacturing business.

pocomoco on October 14, 2008 at 10:53 PM

Allah = Tool

Sugar Land on October 14, 2008 at 10:54 PM

A McCain aide offers a more detailed take on the poll.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/mccain_campaign_cbsnyt_poll_is.php

Statistically this poll suggests an outlier, even a bit beyond a set of results near the top of the error range for Barack and near the bottom of the range for John.

On the more general subject of polls, I wonder how Allahpundit’s election season performance would be polling among HotAirians tonight – and how the site in general would come out. And, since we’re all so poll-happy, why don’t see more samplings of opinion here – predictions about the final outcome of the race, views on debate performances, strategies we’d favor, etc.?

CK MacLeod on October 14, 2008 at 11:00 PM

Voices…can you hear me….Voices in your head……Voices no one hears……Voices of a loser….Voices that don’t make a sound…We’re listening, hello? (best you don’t answer, its easier to draw a bead when you flap..slack jaw tool, or is it dumbass fool….)Your call hero!

dmann on October 14, 2008 at 11:07 PM

I believe that the liberals in New York are having more success at luring Allahpundit over to their dark side, as he is at convincing them of the true virtues of conservatism.
Goodbye Allah. I hope you get a lucrative book deal out of this “unsavory” episode in your life. Having to endure us “hate mongering” conservatives for so long an’ all.

RMR on October 14, 2008 at 11:48 PM

On the numbers of PUMAS I refer to the woman that was screaming at the DNC meeting. Cavuto had her on last week and I am so sorry I forgot her name at the moment. Cavuto asked her the numbers of what she estimated that were going to cross over to McCain. She said it would be upwards of 10 million or over that. Needless to say I about fell out in the floor. She was a riot and I wish we had more like her on our side.

If Hillary had 18 million supporters and we got half or more- Wowwy Kazowey! I do know they are in larger numbers than the media memes want to report.

The ultimate driving factor will be when in dawns on them that Obama had ACORN working against Hillary in the primaries. You would have to be really stupid to think he did not steal this election from Hillary in more ways than one. ROCK ON PUMAS! ROCK ON!

freeus on October 15, 2008 at 12:05 AM

If McCain wins, I think the PUMAS need to have their own Inaugural Ball and I want to go! LOL!

freeus on October 15, 2008 at 12:06 AM

According to the unbiased Essence poll, it’s

OBAMA 89%
McCAIN 6%
OJ- 5%

profitsbeard on October 15, 2008 at 12:17 AM

We all understand the need for the moderators to act as Agent Provocateur, that’s the nature of their beast. Seems AP can’t get enough of that good Obama luv’n and thus the nuanced flavor of the “editorial” comments provided on this site. Sadly save for Ed (debatable at times) Hotair has become an acceptable (new world order) outlet for conservative rage!

All Hail AP!

dmann on October 15, 2008 at 12:31 AM

The PUMAs would not like Allah.

29Victor on October 15, 2008 at 12:32 AM

profitsbeard on October 15, 2008 at 12:17 AM

Priceless

dmann on October 15, 2008 at 12:32 AM

Any news on the Pravda poll?

Jim Treacher on October 14, 2008 at 10:35 PM

Classic.

Spirit of 1776 on October 15, 2008 at 12:56 AM

Out on the limb time:
Observations 23 years into high tech fabrication, indigenous African American engineers or technicians account for 0, I repeat 0% of the sustainable staff I have worked with at DEC, QUANTUM, CORNING, INTEL and RAYTHEON, yet they are the preferred component in MANAGEMENT, HR, SALES and MARKETING. Asian, Indian and Pakistanaise engineers/techs can be found by the “boat” load…why? Device physics and Moores Law hurt my brain every F’in day, yet I and the racist crew work 24-7-365 to ensure your smoke detector work, never mind missle defense systems.

All Hail my ass!

dmann on October 15, 2008 at 1:01 AM

Opps, slapped by a Polack….Eastern Europeans love America and are pretty F’in smart! All Hail Lithuanians, Estonians, Latvians, Czechs and Germans….what a bunch of truly fine, fine women, ya the guys are ok…I guess!

dmann on October 15, 2008 at 1:16 AM

If BO is not up by 7 come election day, he is not going to be president.

Benjamin9 on October 15, 2008 at 1:45 AM

I’m starting to think that the MSM is deliberately trying to set up a race riot or something. When McCain wins, and he will win, Obama’s minions will believe the election was “stolen” based on all the polls. All hell could break loose. The question is why would they want to do that? What would they gain by misrepresenting the polls then losing?

Guardian on October 15, 2008 at 2:03 AM

Isn’t what they are polling the effectiveness of the campaigns/media on those few people polled? I mean, if you never see an ad, never watch the news, or know very little about the candidates – what good is the poll?

This crap of using such tiny sample sizes and extrapolating is only good if we are measuring common physical attributes. Things like pain threshold. When it’s a matter of opinion or information the value of a small sample is almost nil.

It’s so obvious and blatant that these polls are just used to foster some sort of group-think among the electorate: “Obama sure is popular, I guess I’d better vote for him since everybody else is.”

Why do we talk about these? Nothing better to talk about?

Viscount_Bolingbroke on October 15, 2008 at 2:08 AM

indigenous African American

Thanks for QCing my smoke detector. Now get back to work!

The Race Card on October 15, 2008 at 2:12 AM

Gosh, y’know the real numbers are about 150% for Obama, negative 47% for McCain based on a really scientific poll that’s packed full of science that I just made up cuz I is a expert.

I swung by HotAir for my latest dose of wrist-slitting, crepe hanging and fear mongering and, boy howdy, this hits the spot!

Django on October 15, 2008 at 2:54 AM

I suggest that all polls be ignored for the next 3 weeks. Instead, everyone needs to make sure they have a plan to get out and vote on Nov 4.

Every poll showing Obama “running away” with the race is thousands of Obama supporters who will not bother voting. On the other hand, the silver linging is that this may spur McCain supporters to tape Price is Right and go out and vote.

VOTE VOTE VOTE, this is the only reality-based chance right now. No debate tonight will change anything. There will be no October surprise, or Obama/Biden mega-gaffe.

Waterboy on October 15, 2008 at 4:58 AM

Asking any MSM outlet about how the candidates are doing is about as credible as asking Ahmadamnlunatic how the war on terror is going.

Vic on October 15, 2008 at 5:01 AM

I don’t know if this poll is a deliberate outlier or not. I don’t know if Troopergate had something to with it or not. I don’t know if it is an outlier or not. I don’t know if I should ignore a CBS poll on principle or not. I don’t know if it makes any difference at this point or not.

One thing about it when this election is finally done we will stop hearing about polls for awhile.

Speaking if polls, didn’t the regular Gallup {not tracking} put it at 4% gap?

Terrye on October 15, 2008 at 6:42 AM

BTW, that same poll puts Congress’s approval rating at 12. I kid you not.

Terrye on October 15, 2008 at 7:10 AM

BREAKING NEWS!!!
In a poll of 1000 registered Democratic voters by CBS/NY Times,whose editors participated in the poll, Barack Obama is up by %100 to %0 over John McCain. According to CBS/NY times sources…”it’s all over for McCain.” As an aside, the office party at CBS celebrating the poll results was quite an affair according to those in attendance.

sdd on October 15, 2008 at 7:25 AM

Nonsense. CBS story tied this dubious swing to McCain’s negative campaigning. It’s a ploy to silence McCain on Ayers and Wright. I don’t believe it.

marklmail on October 15, 2008 at 7:31 AM

Well Guardian, If McCain wins and chaos ensues, then Katie Couric, Chris Matthews, Charlie Gibson, etall., can shake their heads, look terribly concerned, have tremendous ratings, call all of America, (or whatever % wins by) and have something to blame McCain for over the next 4 years. They will feel totally justified in having even more contempt and loathing for him- everything he does with be juxtaposed against what a “true President” would have done. Never underestimate the power of a good bloody race riot.

anniekc on October 15, 2008 at 7:57 AM

I liked what Rush said last week. “When do we get to riot?”
Obama may very well be winning. I just don’t trust the CBS and the NYT to tell me if Obama was losing.
With all the fraud going on right now with ACORN all over the country, with Democrats in Ohio covering ACORN,, why should any of us believe there would not be fraudulent polls. Someone show me a reason to trust Newsweek, CBS, Time, ABC, CNN or any of these others when they have invested so much in an Obama win.

JellyToast on October 15, 2008 at 8:05 AM

Hi Allah,
After reading through the comments, it seems we need a poll (haha) on how many people trust the MSM news, and their polls. That’s a story here too.

In this ’08 election, the MSM may come out of it a very wounded animal–dangerous, but weakened.

JiangxiDad on October 15, 2008 at 8:08 AM

My apologies if this comment has already been made:

Is it possible an outlier poll like this is designed to set the stage for the accusation that the election was stolen, in case Obama loses?

JiangxiDad on October 15, 2008 at 8:11 AM

“How to Lie with Statistics”

Google It!

Move along…not much to see here.

NuclearPhysicist on October 15, 2008 at 8:44 AM

Not buying this CBS/NYT poll. Maybe it’s based on the number of registered voters provided by ACORN, which includes felons, illegal immigrants, multiple applications by the same people and Mickey Mouse, of course.

CBS and New York Times? Oh Pleheeeeeeeeeeeese!

sinsing on October 15, 2008 at 8:45 AM

Once again a psyops poll by the enemy liberal media and AP quotes it as gospel truth. I hope AP isn’t as negative about his own life as he is about McCain, that would be a horribly bitter and negative personality. Question for AP,
if there is this ravine as proposed by the AntiamericanPropagandists and CommunistsBolsheviksSocialists network, why does Obama’s internal polls only show him plus two in Pennsylvania?

eaglewingz08 on October 15, 2008 at 9:07 AM

Well, where did all the illegals go? Who are they voting for? Surely at least one of them will vote, Wheres your numbers on this people? 5 million bad mortgages is one figure HUD has on them.

When these guys are done stealing this election from the American people, if the man is even a U.S. Citizen that is, we are in for a life of stealing, cheating, rewarding laziness, and total removal of desire to achieve in this country. We’re a country that let the Clintons rein for 2 terms so our standards haven’t been very high for a while. Sorry but I am sick of seeing the liberal mindset spread, that its right to do wrong and wrong to do whats right. Jesse Jackson doesn’t even like the guy.

Obama strikes me as the kind of guy who will hold the door open for a fleeing store robber based on the fact the store had the money to spare so what the heck. Do you want to live like that? I don’t.

I pray to god things turn around.

johnnyU on October 15, 2008 at 9:11 AM

It is over my friends. Wonder Woman has entered the political fray on the dark side. The only way McCain has a shot is if he can somehow borrow her The Lasso of Truth for tonight’s debate.

moxie_neanderthal on October 15, 2008 at 10:16 AM

CBS poll shave zero credibility to me. I suspect the real numbers are 47-44

Hilts on October 15, 2008 at 11:39 AM

I’m guessing the Ayers attacks aren’t helping much

Well, duh. Are you people so unhinged that you think “take off the gloves!” is a good substitute for campaigning on the issues?

rightwingprof on October 15, 2008 at 11:46 AM

So let me get this straight – according to Allah, Obama is going to beat McCain almost like Reagan beat Mondale. In a word – BULLSHIT!!!!!!!!!

Hilts on October 15, 2008 at 11:47 AM

I am not obsessed with the polls this time.

There is something very strange going on in this election. My city is very liberal blue collar. The Democratic Club is always busy. There is no Republican meeting place. This is the bedroom community of union factory workers, with a huge collection of housing projects. In fact, my city once had the most public housing in America until the feds allowed some of it to be converted on condition percentages were retained for subsidized tenants

Every election the lawns are plastered with signs. Gore signs were everywhere.

This election there are way way less signs. I have seen one (uno) Obama sign. That was on a door of a converted rental
unit not out on the lawn.

This does not compute. There wouldn’t be any fear about announcing a pro-Dem position here. There are Judge re-elect signs all around. The McCain Palin signs stand out for the lack of Obama signs

There is almost zero election chatter. I have overheard no one criticizing or even talking McCain. The occasional blurt is anti Obama (Rev. Wright, national anthem, the flag pin, muslim etc)

The public takes its cues from media. He who opposes Obama is a racist. He who is called a racist faces consequences. There may be a backlash coming

Beating up on Palin is only helping this

The constant drumbeat that McCain is losing will likely increase any backlash.

entagor on October 15, 2008 at 12:37 PM

Because McCain does not lift a finger to defend President Bush or any other Republicans, the Obama narrative that McCain is a third Bush term sticks.

McCain needs to defend Bush on some grounds or else whatever half-truth Obama wants to throw out sticks to Bush AND him.

Angry Dumbo on October 15, 2008 at 12:43 PM

Being transformed to underddog status was a huge boost to Hillary who won the popular vote

McCain has been declared underdog. Now he has to declare himself an underdog who will not be dismissed. He has to make mainstream America the underdog with him.

That is the secret of Palin’s growth. Kick Palin and you kick an average American who has been kicked every single day in the MSM as a racist and an ignoramus.

With McCain the danger is his language. He has to be a fighting underdog and not mess up and declare himself a loser. He has to let the underdog citizen know that he will represent them and not ignore them like the other side. Together they will fix things. It can be done. He knows it can be done. And it can be done with decency for all, He has gone against both parties because he serves first of all the American people.

McCain has to psych himself up to talk to the American people and not Obama. He has to let them know he is debating for them to defend their futures

It is obvious the public is waiting for a cue.

Obama has already spilled his guts and is now working to smooth his radical image. McCain has to talk to America first and not waste time on the smoothie

entagor on October 15, 2008 at 12:50 PM

Nonsense. CBS story tied this dubious swing to McCain’s negative campaigning. It’s a ploy to silence McCain on Ayers and Wright. I don’t believe it.

marklmail on October 15, 2008 at 7:31 AM

And McCain is gullible enough to fall for it.

Django on October 15, 2008 at 2:37 PM