Hope and change: McCain within one in Hotline, two in Zogby

posted at 11:30 am on October 8, 2008 by Allahpundit

No foolin’, although Zogby’s had it bizarrely close for awhile now even as other national polls showed The One peeling away. Hotline’s sample seems fair enough: 41% Dem, 36% GOP. (Zogby doesn’t give his.) Is Ayersmania catching on? There might be a likelier explanation:

The candidates remained tied on economic issues. 42% believe Obama would do the best job handling the U.S. economy, and 42% say McCain. 62% meanwhile believe the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S.

McCain, however, now has his largest lead ever on energy issues. 46% favor the GOP nominee on managing U.S. energy policies, and 40% favor Obama. One week ago, in the survey completed 9/30, Obama led 46-40% on energy.

Obama led McCain by five on the economy in the weekend Hotline poll; that advantage evaporated yesterday, and with it went most of The One’s overall six-point lead. The bad news? Neither this latest survey nor Zogby’s includes sampling taken after the debate, which other polls say Maverick lost, so who knows where that’ll leave us tomorrow. The good news? These two aren’t the only national polls suddenly showing an uptick for McCain. Rasmussen has him gaining two today, albeit still trailing by six, and Battleground 2008 shows him netting three points to trail by four. Exit question: Where’s the movement this week coming from? You don’t suppose…

Blowback

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maybe the Mass emails people are sending tying Obama/Dems to Fannie/Freddie is having an effect along with SaraCuda

McCain needs to hammer him for campaigning for Odinga in Keyna and tie it to Genocide which Obama claims to be against. While traveling recently all the way to Keyna to campaign for a Radical Socialist who is doing just that as leader.

jp on October 8, 2008 at 11:33 AM

McCain can still win this, but he needs to show that that moderate act the Obama has been putting on for the general election is just an act. Where are all the primary debate clips we were so looking forward to being looped during October?

pedestrian on October 8, 2008 at 11:34 AM

I wouldn’t worry about the debate. It will be a non-factor, like all the other debates. Most will have turned the TV off after 20 minutes, like I did. zzzzz

lodge on October 8, 2008 at 11:34 AM

the big question is if Dynamic Weighting is correct or not. If its not McCain is probaby not doing that bad

jp on October 8, 2008 at 11:34 AM

I think Sarah is doing his dirty work and nobody does it better than that hockey mom…keep it up…everyday another shady relationship should come to light..

joepub on October 8, 2008 at 11:34 AM

It’s coming from the fact that the people who haven’t been paying close attention are starting to wonder who Obama is, because he’s easy for a certain type of person to adore and worship, but hard for another type of person to understand and relate to.

JudetheFossil on October 8, 2008 at 11:34 AM

Socialism lite. Half the taxes. All the suffering.

lorien1973 on October 8, 2008 at 11:35 AM

My old man’s a dustman

LimeyGeek on October 8, 2008 at 11:35 AM

Hotline polls have struck me as being untrustworthy on numbers, but rather accurate at pointing to movement or trends. I don’t know about how close it might be, but the new tack of the campaign is likely working.

Tommygun on October 8, 2008 at 11:36 AM

These polls make about as much sense as a soup sandwich this year. They zig when they should zag, and zag when they should zig.

Trust none of them.

thirteen28 on October 8, 2008 at 11:36 AM

Maybe it’s people just tuning in late and the GOP base getting nervous seeing him down 8 or 9 points and finally getting in gear.

All the declarations of it being over can also be a motivator.

Four weeks is a lifetime in politics. Things can flip quickly.

JammieWearingFool on October 8, 2008 at 11:37 AM

Bribery works.

Fletch54 on October 8, 2008 at 11:38 AM

Is the American Public really this freaking fickle? MAKE UP YOUR DAMN MINDS ALREADY!!!!!!

If I ever opened a restaurant, I’ll have 1 frigging choice on the entire menu every damn day.

YellowDawg on October 8, 2008 at 11:38 AM

I didn’t take enough math in college to figure exactly how polls are weighted to get the predetermined results. I can however work an infinite improbability drive.

Tommy_G on October 8, 2008 at 11:38 AM

Most will have turned the TV off after 20 minutes, like I did. zzzzz

lodge on October 8, 2008 at 11:34 AM

I didn’t last too long myself. You can only take so much of ‘I’m a reformer willing to work with Liebermann’ opposed to ‘Bush sux and McCain is his twin.’

I’ve made up my mind and I know Obama is the worst thing this country needs right now.

cntrlfrk on October 8, 2008 at 11:38 AM

The Palin Factor.

Just took a few days to bubble to the surface.

fogw on October 8, 2008 at 11:39 AM

I figure, for this election cycle, the longer Undecideds stay undecided the better for McCain. They are scared of Obama, McCain’s job is to keep reminding them why they should be

jp on October 8, 2008 at 11:40 AM

McCain, however, now has his largest lead ever on energy issues.

Oh yeah, the energy issue.

Let’s drill! We can’t afford to keep sending all our money to degenerates.

forest on October 8, 2008 at 11:41 AM

Sorry to pop your bubble, but it don’t matter. Think basketball. O has the lead, keeps tradin’ buckets with Ol’ John and is content to run out the clock. Team McCain needs a solid run, but ‘Boma’s zone D won’t let that happen. No buzzer-beater on the horizen folks, just a massive, national case of OMG buyer’s remorse starting, say, Nov. 6?

Bruno Strozek on October 8, 2008 at 11:41 AM

Hopefully the polls are right.

Since McCain is leading on energy issues I think he should pound home his advantage there. Tell the voters we need to go all out on energy (All of the above!) to create jobs, keep $700 Billion a year at home, and create hundreds of thousands of new jobs. And to power all those future electric cars we need ELECTRICITY. Nuclear power – wide open development of safe and clean nuclear power.

And finally, Sarah needs to take McCain by the hand and tour the desolate ANWR area where drilling would occur. There with the cameras panning the desolate mud flats, McCain needs to declare he now supports drilling in ANWR – to save our economy.

rigdown on October 8, 2008 at 11:43 AM

I think this man does a decent job of explaining the polling.

red131 on October 8, 2008 at 11:44 AM

If McCain had made any effort last night to say anything remotely similar to the online Fannie/Freddie ads circling the internet, placing blame where it belongs, rather than mindlessly blaming our economic troubles on “wall st greed” he could have hit Obama where it hurts and changed the political landscape as a result. It was a huge opportunity missed.

Zetterson on October 8, 2008 at 11:44 AM

I think its a combination of a few things.

1. Palin did ok in her debate…
2. She’s attacking and on the offensive…
3. McCain hit back on the economy…

Ayers shouldn’t be a focus of attacks but you can’t just drop it and move on… you have to keep working him into the narrative… and you have to look at how the press and Obama is reporting on Ayers and slyly drip drip drip info which rebuts what they’re saying(or purposely not saying)… that is how you discredit the press and your opponent…

ninjapirate on October 8, 2008 at 11:44 AM

Sorry forgot the link

red131 on October 8, 2008 at 11:44 AM

red131 on October 8, 2008 at 11:45 AM

1. Palin did ok in her debate…
2. She’s attacking and on the offensive…
3. McCain hit back on the economy…

Oh, and Bush isn’t on TV…

ninjapirate on October 8, 2008 at 11:45 AM

Well, I must say the news of the day looks glum.

The future of this country is headed into uncharted territory, what happens next is anyone’s guess.

McCain can be infuriating, he is clearly an imperfect man and and even worse candidate…but let’s pray(you to Allah)that he wins this election.

Getting on my knees.

Dorvillian on October 8, 2008 at 11:45 AM

But…but….but…Allah!

What does KP think?

FiveWays on October 8, 2008 at 11:45 AM

http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com/

red131 on October 8, 2008 at 11:45 AM

I heard John Zogby on both POTUS 08 and Hannity this week. He insists this race is still a dead heat and that is bad news for Obama. Obama has not closed the sale. He also said the Obama “bounce” last week was not because of the market meltdown, it was because people started seeing George Bush on TV again. I think he is right about that. If the election becomes a referendum on Bush, Obama wins. The debate refocuses people back on McCain vs. Obama. Obama tried to tie McCain to Bush last night but was weak doing it.

rockmom on October 8, 2008 at 11:45 AM

McCain only needs to discuss two issues:
Energy and all its implications from national security to jobs to what to do with all the money from royalties and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and how the Dems caysed it and will only create more havoc should they win.

DerKrieger on October 8, 2008 at 11:45 AM

I wouldn’t worry about the debate. It will be a non-factor, like all the other debates. Most will have turned the TV off after 20 minutes, like I did. zzzzz

lodge on October 8, 2008 at 11:34 AM

I second that.

thePajamaPundit on October 8, 2008 at 11:45 AM

Conservatives love to dump on Zogby, but he was the only pollster who called Al Gore winning the popular vote in 2000, and he was the most accurate in 2004 as well. His samples are huge and his likely voter model seems to be the best one out there.

rockmom on October 8, 2008 at 11:47 AM

Allah – “bizarely close” = subtle bias. Nice try though.

Fuquay Steve on October 8, 2008 at 11:48 AM

Remember that John Zogby was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2000 and 2004. John McCain may be the underdog but this ain’t over yet.

Kronos on October 8, 2008 at 11:49 AM

Kirstin Powers and Allah = “bizarrely close”

FiveWays on October 8, 2008 at 11:50 AM

It’s close — forget what CNN and others are saying about a blowout; ain’t happening.

Richard Romano on October 8, 2008 at 11:51 AM

It’s Palin and the double-barreled, daily attacks from McCain and her on Obama. This will continue to have a devastating effect on Obama’s numbers. Biden is simply not a factor and the two-on-one strategy will be far more effective than anything happening in the debates. I wouldn’t be surprised if the real tactic here is a rope a dope on the debates and howitzers out on the campaign trail.

EMD on October 8, 2008 at 11:52 AM

Who do these people poll?

Poll’s are useless since they are gamed to suit the person doing the poll. The more intrigue and following of polls in general.

Thankfully, Maverick fights harder when the polls are softer.

If we have learned nothing else, damn the polls full speed ahead.

Hening on October 8, 2008 at 11:52 AM

Sarah should rail about Obama campaigning for the Marxist thug Odinga and his push for genocide in Kenya. This will be devastating to the Obama campaign, and really illustrate to indies how Marxist Obama is.

Also, continue to attack him on Ayers and all the activity he had with him and the indoctrination of childrent.

Then closer to election day, send out TV adds on Wright again showing him Damning America.

And last, keep the Obama working for ACORN alive and well and the vote fraud.

Mention Obama taxing more and spending more like a typical NO Change liberal.

Mention that Obama with a Dem Congress will be too dangerous.

McCain has already started to climb back.

Keep Sarah attacking ALL THE TIME, since the media focuses on this and cannot ignore her.

The key now is for McCain to win back the men’s vote he lost over the mortgage bailout. He can do it.

Sapwolf on October 8, 2008 at 11:52 AM

Don’t under estimate my Maverik AGAIN.

Have some faith.

Rightwingsparkle on October 8, 2008 at 11:54 AM

I never listen to Rush but did yesterday as I drove to an appointment.

He was hailing Zogby because he has it close- and said that Zogby was most accurate in 2004.

What the hell is Rush smoking?

Chuck Schick on October 8, 2008 at 11:54 AM

Oh yeah, the energy issue.

Let’s drill! We can’t afford to keep sending all our money to degenerates.

forest on October 8, 2008 at 11:41 AM

McCain needs to announce a shift in his stance on ANWR. Obama can’t counter it and voters get the link between our financial woes and relatively quick energy independence.

a capella on October 8, 2008 at 11:54 AM

With Obama covering for Barny Frank, Chris Dodd, Maxine Waters and Franklin Raines and supporting ACORN and the housing entitlement for anyone who cannot pay a mortgage, that caused our financial crash, do we need more of the same?

Speakup on October 8, 2008 at 11:55 AM

Pardon me, but who is that guy to McCain’s left? I have seen this picture a million times.

Anybody??

BigD on October 8, 2008 at 11:56 AM

Shocking really, given McCain’s performance last night and the fact that Obama came off rather well. He’s a lying ass-clown, but he didn’t uh, uh, uh through the town hall format as I had hoped he would.

So, f**k the polls altogether, batten down the hatches and launch Palin!!!

J.J. Sefton on October 8, 2008 at 11:57 AM

What the hell is Rush smoking?

Chuck Schick on October 8, 2008 at 11:54 AM

A very expensive cigar would be my guess.

BigD on October 8, 2008 at 11:57 AM

If McCain keeps pounding Bambi and the Dems on the bailout and

IF he continues to call Bambi’s foreign affairs judgment into question and

IF Palin continues to pound away on the Ayers, Wright and Rezko issues and

IF the RNC and McCain folks barrage the voters with powerful and very negative ads

THEN McCain stands a chance of winning. Even so, it will likely be another election 2000 knuckle-biter.

Expect heavy and destructive rioting in Detroit, Chicago, Boston and New York.

ManlyRash on October 8, 2008 at 11:58 AM

Pardon me, but who is that guy to McCain’s left? I have seen this picture a million times.

Anybody??

Chavez to the left, Kim Jong-il to the right.

At least, that’s what it looks like to me

lodge on October 8, 2008 at 11:58 AM

Pardon me, but who is that guy to McCain’s left? I have seen this picture a million times.

Anybody??

BigD on October 8, 2008 at 11:56 AM

Looks like a poor-mans Phil Gramm or a stocky and bald Joe Don Baker.

J.J. Sefton on October 8, 2008 at 11:58 AM

These polls have me sick with all the ups and downs. I feel like I should avoid them at all costs because of how much they change, but they’re like a train wreck; I can’t look away.

Esthier on October 8, 2008 at 11:59 AM

My top 10 reasons why McCain is coming back:

10)McCain’s tactical mistakes with the bailout are fading
9) Obama’s “cool” style is starting to get on our nerves
8) closer to the elections, pollsters whatching their reputation
7) People are starting to pay attention
6) Obama’s leftist/stalinist philosophy is starting to show
5) Effectiveness of Palin Attacks Obama on Ayers
4) Effectiveness of McCain Attacks Obama on FM/FM
3) Obama’s troubling relationships are piling up
2) Palin/Biden Debate
1) We got to see Piper “Firestarter” Palin again at the debate

neuquenguy on October 8, 2008 at 12:00 PM

One of my deep concerns is the voter fraud by the democrats and Acorn. We must make sure that Ohio is not stolen.

Winebabe on October 8, 2008 at 12:00 PM

As these polls produce results we agree with, their accuracy improves. :)

paul006 on October 8, 2008 at 12:00 PM

everyone just got their 401K statements and the democrats maybe on the run – in the back of most minds the greed thing iss just not registering bt forcing loans for non-payment is setting with the mainstream

EricPWJohnson on October 8, 2008 at 12:06 PM

First, I don’t buy into post debate polls. Most Americans have no idea how to measure who won a debate. The average person looks at style and thinks Obama was smoother and therefore won. But when someone asks them about energy or when they pull up to the gas pump they will think in the back of their mind that McCain has a plan to reduce dependence on foreign oil. That is where the debate is really scored.

grdred944 on October 8, 2008 at 12:08 PM

As much as I hate to say it, McCain is a done’r…stick a fork in him, he’s crispy. Obama will coast to a narrow win. God, I pray that I’m wrong…

/drinks Jack Daniels from the bottle using straw

Wyznowski on October 8, 2008 at 12:08 PM

Dont forget…..and Rush mentioned this yesterday, John ZOGBY was the ONLY pollster to nail the 04 race.

He just said it again in the opening monolouge!

OSUBuciz1 on October 8, 2008 at 12:08 PM

Wyznowski on October 8, 2008 at 12:08 PM

Gonna be a long 3 weeks…

ManlyRash on October 8, 2008 at 12:09 PM

I didn’t take enough math in college to figure exactly how polls are weighted to get the predetermined results. I can however work an infinite improbability drive.

Tommy_G on October 8, 2008 at 11:38 AM

A simple spreadsheet can solve for the weight needed for a desired result.

If you need to impress a paying client, throw in a discussion of matrices and linear algebra.

Right_of_Attila on October 8, 2008 at 12:10 PM

Energy is McCain Palins biggest advantage, as I see it. Taxes hes just beating himself up against the “I’ll lower it for 95% of the people” talking point. People know Obama will raise taxes, they care to the extent they care and that’s it.

Energy, Fannie/Freddie (which is dulled by the very unpopular bailout he helped broker), general economy/tax cuts, and throw in a good case of BTW my opponent hangs out with Ayers and Wright.

Dash on October 8, 2008 at 12:11 PM

I figure, for this election cycle, the longer Undecideds stay undecided the better for McCain. They are scared of Obama, McCain’s job is to keep reminding them why they should be

jp on October 8, 2008 at 11:40 AM

Bingo

Vashta.Nerada on October 8, 2008 at 12:11 PM

In a 3-day tracking poll, Tuesday means the Friday sample drops out — and the GOP does better. Clockwork.

That being said, the overall trend may be turning to Mac as people have time to seriously contemplate an Obama presidency.

Karl on October 8, 2008 at 12:13 PM

One of my deep concerns is the voter fraud by the democrats and Acorn. We must make sure that Ohio is not stolen.

Winebabe on October 8, 2008 at 12:00 PM

Good luck with that. To counter Obama’s superiority in the ground game and voter fraud, we will need to be up by 6-10% in Ohio even factoring in the Bradley effect. Sarah and Todd will probably help a lot if they are deployed often enough.

neuquenguy on October 8, 2008 at 12:15 PM

The Eeyore Scale of Doom ratchets back to a 6.3.

Akzed on October 8, 2008 at 12:17 PM

Fannie Mae and the Democrats is starting to sink in. After seeing it on HBO and NBC and FOX and Comedy Central, people are starting to get a whiff of the stench the Democrats cooked up.

Seixon on October 8, 2008 at 12:19 PM

We’re going to start seeing more accurate polls as we get closer and closer to the election. Why? The pollsters know their professional reputations are ultimately based on how close they come to the actual election results. The closer we get to election day the more incentive there is to get it right. That means weighting the Republican/Democrat/Independent splits more accurately.

Whether this results in tighter polls remains to be seen, of course. If McCain really is much closer than it appears then that will start to be reflected in the polls in the coming weeks. If he’s not, it won’t.

rsrobinson on October 8, 2008 at 12:21 PM

I do suppose… hit him hard, hit him often, and hit him everywhere, but ESPECIALLY on the Fanny/Freddie!!!

lionheart on October 8, 2008 at 12:22 PM

/drinks Jack Daniels from the bottle using straw

Wyznowski on October 8, 2008 at 12:08 PM

Guess it’s 5:00 somewhere(?).

tru2tx on October 8, 2008 at 12:27 PM

The McCain campaign has got to attack this mans associations and radical ties and make the issue Obama. That means hitting him with Wright even though he doesn’t want to. Wright is just as if not more damaging to Obama than Ayers. He certainly had a closer relationship with Wright.

PTN 39 on October 8, 2008 at 12:28 PM

Yup…

Zogby and Hotline… the two polls that have been most consistently wrong and most criticized (especially here at HA) for this entire campaign cycle.

*yawn*

Yeah, it’s nice to have so arguably good news but I will save my enthusiasm for when McCain is actually winning on Rasmussen and/or Gallop.

Damiano on October 8, 2008 at 12:32 PM

I find it hard to believe that the population as a whole is this volatile in their preferences.

MarkTheGreat on October 8, 2008 at 12:38 PM

Dont forget…..and Rush mentioned this yesterday, John ZOGBY was the ONLY pollster to nail the 04 race.

He just said it again in the opening monolouge!

OSUBuciz1 on October 8, 2008 at 12:08 PM

Why do people keep saying this? His last poll had Kerry winning, which he defended afterwards.

Chuck Schick on October 8, 2008 at 12:39 PM

This is sure going to be an unprecedented last month of a presidential campaign. It is sinking in to voters that we are in for a crappy four years no matter who wins, but this is still a dangerous world full of surprises. Do voters just want to take it out on George Bush again and sweep out all Republicans? Or do they get scared enough to be afraid of the new guy with so little experience?

Last night McCain made the case at the end as well as he possibly could have. Forget all the “missed opportunities.” The lasting impression most voters will take from McCain is his hug of the CPO and his final statement that he has been tested through crisis before, he has been in situations where all seemed lost, and he has faith in America. That may have been the best closing statement ever given in a debate. Today much of the talk is about McCain and his mortgage proposal, which is not going to thrill conservatives but probably will impress independents and especially women.

rockmom on October 8, 2008 at 12:40 PM

Why do people keep saying this? His last poll had Kerry winning, which he defended afterwards.

Chuck Schick on October 8, 2008 at 12:39 PM

GOP turnout in Ohio far exceeded anyone’s models, mostly due to the gay marriage referendum that drove the evangelicals to vote in far bigger numbers than in 2000. All the pollsters were surprised by evangelical turnout in all the states where there were gay marriage referenda.

I was impressed with Zogby on Hannity’s show. Scott Rasmussen disagreed with him pretty strongly and saw Obama opening up a lead, but Zogby was not buying it. I gave up on Rasmussen after 2000 – he had Bush with a solid 5-point lead the day before the election.

rockmom on October 8, 2008 at 12:48 PM

Has it really gotten so bad that we are trusting a Zogby poll?

Speedwagon82 on October 8, 2008 at 12:48 PM

Has it really gotten so bad that we are trusting a Zogby poll?

Speedwagon82 on October 8, 2008 at 12:48 PM

I hope no one is actually putting any faith in these polls, but I’m sure many people just need some kind of hope to cling to and that any will do.

Esthier on October 8, 2008 at 12:55 PM

BO is gasbagging right now standing in front of backdrop made up of 100% white women again.

forest on October 8, 2008 at 12:56 PM

Just released Gallup tracking has Obamawan Barakobi up by 11 from 9 yesterday.

MB4 on October 8, 2008 at 1:10 PM

I don’t buy that Gallup poll. Four tracking polls today have it from 1 to 6 points. Something isn’t right.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2008 at 1:12 PM

This has nothing to do with last night’s debate. What’s been happening for the last several days is fallout from the VP debate and the mortgage crisis.

logis on October 8, 2008 at 1:15 PM

So Hotline 1 point, Gallup 11?

Rasmussen 6, Zogby 2..

This is that Dynamic Weighting problem, these pollsters don’t know what it really is

jp on October 8, 2008 at 1:16 PM

I don’t trust these polls, but does this mean it’s okay not to PANIC PANIC PANIC OMIGOD WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF WE DON’T ALL PANIC? The obsession with these stupid polls is bewildering.

Jim Treacher on October 8, 2008 at 1:27 PM

So Hotline 1 point, Gallup 11?

Rasmussen 6, Zogby 2..

This is that Dynamic Weighting problem, these pollsters don’t know what it really is

jp on October 8, 2008 at 1:16 PM

Okay is there any kind of presedent for wacky numbers like those? Someone is just not getting it right. Is it the difficulty with weighting? Cell phones? What. There has to be some reason these poll differences are so far outside the margin of err.

Which puts me back in the conspiracy theroy arena. I hate that!

And I think Rush has 04 mixed up with 2000. I think Zogby was right in 2000 but off in 2004. That’s just my memory.

petunia on October 8, 2008 at 1:31 PM

“theroy” is a guy from new jersey… I mean theory of course.

petunia on October 8, 2008 at 1:33 PM

First of all, Zogby polls cannot be trusted. His polls are all over the place and he has a history of fudging his numbers.

Second, I believe the polls tightened because of Palin’s attacks. The problem is that Obama’s polls went way up after the first debate, so even if the polls show a tightening of the race before the debate, the polls for Obama are going to open up again in a couple of days because he doesn’t come across as a raging liberal when he debates.

Palin needs to continue her attacks, which are very effective and that’s the job of the VP candidate anyway.

And McCain needs to start producing TV ads, not just youtube ads, that show video of Obama’s contradictory positions in the debates (drilling, nuclear power, gun rights, Iran diplomacy, taxes, NAFTA, etc.) and then say Obama says what he thinks his audience wants to hear, but when it comes time to voting he always choses the far-left position. In fact, he’s the most liberal senator…

Sensible Mom on October 8, 2008 at 1:33 PM

I don’t trust these polls, but does this mean it’s okay not to PANIC PANIC PANIC OMIGOD WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF WE DON’T ALL PANIC? The obsession with these stupid polls is bewildering.

Jim Treacher on October 8, 2008 at 1:27 PM

But the Guide says DON’T PANIC!!

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 8, 2008 at 1:34 PM

The Bradley factor.

csdeven on October 8, 2008 at 1:37 PM

Okay. Gallup is still using Registered voters instead of Likely voters. That might explain some of the problem. But I would like to see a comparison of the weighting used by each of the tracking polls. Unless the weighting is standardized they can’t be compared. At this point I don’t see why Gallup is using RV. I think they have always used LV in past elections. So what makes this year different.

petunia on October 8, 2008 at 1:39 PM

First of all, Zogby polls cannot be trusted. His polls are all over the place and he has a history of fudging his numbers.
Sensible Mom on October 8, 2008 at 1:33 PM

Even worse: Zogby got his reputation as an anti-contrarian, after the 2000 election.

He’s not so much a pollster as a prophet. People will tend to forget the nine-out-of-ten times he’s wrong and only remember that ONE time it turned out he ‘knew’ something that no one else did.

logis on October 8, 2008 at 1:40 PM

McCain needs to do a major energy speech right now with Palin at his side going all in on offshore and ANWR and detail how it helps us nationally in revenue, jobs, and national security. Also talk about how the increased revenue will help lower taxes and pay for this bailout BS. People are skittish now about jobs, homes, 401s, gas prices, etc. that a well-delivered speech would help calm and reassure people. On top of it, if the stock market responded favorably, that would help clinch it.

PatMac on October 8, 2008 at 1:42 PM

We’re going to start seeing more accurate polls as we get closer and closer to the election. Why? The pollsters know their professional reputations are ultimately based on how close they come to the actual election results. The closer we get to election day the more incentive there is to get it right. That means weighting the Republican/Democrat/Independent splits more accurately.

Whether this results in tighter polls remains to be seen, of course. If McCain really is much closer than it appears then that will start to be reflected in the polls in the coming weeks. If he’s not, it won’t.

rsrobinson on October 8, 2008 at 12:21 PM

What is the accurate weight? I think I heard the CNN poll about who won the debate last night said 39% dem and 27% rep. That hardly seems right. That is an 12% difference.

I want to know the true breakdown. And wouldn’t it be different for each state?

petunia on October 8, 2008 at 1:46 PM

Don’t under estimate my Maverik AGAIN.

Have some faith.

Rightwingsparkle on October 8, 2008 at 11:54 AM

No kidding.

Watch team McCain/Palin completely unload on Obama in time to blow up his ‘cool” campaign.

He was hailing Zogby because he has it close- and said that Zogby was most accurate in 2004.

What the hell is Rush smoking?

Chuck Schick on October 8, 2008 at 11:54 AM

Reverse psychology.

If they showed the polls with McCain up, then the Obama campaign would work harder and possibly move over the finish line.
As it is, we are at the same point as we were in 2004 with Kerry up ten (10) points.

Why would Zogby and all the other pollsters throw this kind of reverse psychology polling advantage to the Republicans year after year?

I blame Karl Rove.

Mcguyver on October 8, 2008 at 1:54 PM

I am so confused, and Gallup has Obama up 11. It makes no sense.

Terrye on October 8, 2008 at 1:54 PM

Sorry AllahPundit….. no positive news spin possible for Barack Hussein Obama.

Mcguyver on October 8, 2008 at 1:56 PM

Galup is starting to look like an outlier with CBS, CNN, rutgers/CSPAN, noe HOtline and ramusseen all showing the same thing.

unseen on October 8, 2008 at 2:06 PM

We’re going to start seeing more accurate polls as we get closer and closer to the election. Why? The pollsters know their professional reputations are ultimately based on how close they come to the actual election results. The closer we get to election day the more incentive there is to get it right. That means weighting the Republican/Democrat/Independent splits more accurately.

The pollsters who have Obama up 11% will just boost the case that Republicans are committing election fraud, so the Left will actually trust them more than those that show it tied.

Speedwagon82 on October 8, 2008 at 2:13 PM

YellowDawg on October 8, 2008 at 11:38 AM

You’re completely right about a restaurant with only 1 menu item.

There’s an amazing restaurant in Kansas City, MO that has 4 choices each day. 2 of them are standard (cheese quiche and quiche lorraine) and 2 of them rotate each day.

People still sit there agonizing over which one to get.

I don’t understand the people that are still undecided at this point. Perhaps in a primary where candidates are quite similar and you’re looking at different degrees on the same issues. But, in a McCain vs. Obama race, there are only 2 ways to still be undecided:

Either you don’t know what you want and what you stand for

OR

You don’t know what the candidates want and the candidates stand for.

I can understand someone that has decided that they both suck and is voting for neither (though I don’t agree with that position), but to still be undecided?

Anyone that is still claiming to be undecided at this point is either uninformed or fibbing.

JadeNYU on October 8, 2008 at 2:42 PM

/drinks Jack Daniels from the bottle using straw

Wyznowski on October 8, 2008 at 12:08 PM
Guess it’s 5:00 somewhere(?).

tru2tx on October 8, 2008 at 12:27 PM

Time should never be a limiting factor for imbibing ones favorite adult beverage…

Wyznowski on October 8, 2008 at 3:00 PM

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