Survey USA: Obama by 15 in Pennsylvania
posted at 2:01 pm on October 7, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Another horrifying SUSA state poll that oversamples Dems (50/39), another lead so wide that even a correctly weighted sample probably still equals a double-digit advantage for The One. Quinnipiac also had him by 15 last week and something called Morning Call Tracking has him up 10. The RCP spread: 11 points, four more than the current margin in Michigan, where Maverick’s already abandoned ship.
The most alarming number:
Obama today leads among PA men and women, young and old, rich and poor, more educated and less educated. McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, pro-life voters, and gun owners. 21% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain. Independents break 2:1 for Obama.
The CBS poll last night had McCain marginally ahead among indies nationally so maybe this is an outlier, but I’m not sure what to make of the idea that Obama’s suddenly pulling more Republicans than McCain is Democrats. It’s been the opposite all year thanks to the PUMAs. But if that number’s an outlier too, why were there also more Obamicans than McCainocrats in the Virginia and New Hampshire polls from yestrerday? Given that Rasmussen has The One by eight and Gallup by nine, it’s probably CBS that’s the outlier, not SUSA.
Exit question: What would qualify as a gamechanger tonight? Gingrich and Rich Lowry agree that the only way out lies through a compelling economic message, but the economy’s always been a subplot to Maverick’s campaign. To remake his whole candidacy as an economic warrior a month out from election day would feel like a, er, stunt, but what choice does he have?
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It is so hard to stay freaking positive.
Could 21 percent of Republicans cross to vote for Satan? Are they THAT dumb?
blatantblue on October 7, 2008 at 2:04 PM
Hotline has McCain down by just 2? And their polls did show McCain trailing “5-7 pts. for the last 10 days”.
amerpundit on October 7, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Clearly, too many Americans vote with gut feelings and tingling legs than with facts.
kirkill on October 7, 2008 at 2:05 PM
You should just put him up by 100% in every state. Seriously. Won’t matter one bit.
rightside on October 7, 2008 at 2:05 PM
The sampling is simply incredible.
The difference between Dems and Republicans will be less than 5% on electon day do these polls are nothing but liberal self-stroking.
Elizabetty on October 7, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Yeah, it’s ridiculous. 21% Republican crossover – no way.
forest on October 7, 2008 at 2:06 PM
I need a drink. Maybe if I just stay drunk for the next 8 years everything will be fine.
D0WNT0WN on October 7, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Yeah, because these polls were sooooo accurate back in 04, and 00. Polls are useless.
gator70 on October 7, 2008 at 2:07 PM
I believe after the debate.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 7, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Everyday is a struggle to stay positive.
blatantblue on October 7, 2008 at 2:07 PM
None. Onward to election day!
ManlyRash on October 7, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Even more depressing is the final voter reg figure. The D to R split is now 1.2 million, after being around a half-million more Ds than Rs for years.
Basically, it’s over in my state–Obama takes it easy
albo on October 7, 2008 at 2:07 PM
On the plus side, I sold a republican flag to illinois today.
1 vote down!
lorien1973 on October 7, 2008 at 2:08 PM
THE MEDIA IS LYING AMERICA……….
Pravda always had Joe Stalin way ahead too. Keep the faith and speak with your vote Nov 4th.
DeweyWins on October 7, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Survey USA? Sounds like a reputable source. Guess I will just stay at home this election since it is over in Pennsylvania.
/
carbon_footprint on October 7, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Only if you are gullible enough to believe these hugely biased polls. Look at the sample numbers.
If you are having a hard time staying positive than the MSM has you exactly where they want you.
Elizabetty on October 7, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Are some of the surveys trying to dishearten McCain voters? Is this another attack at the behest of Teh One?
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on October 7, 2008 at 2:09 PM
On election night, I’m going to have a beer for every point Obama underperforms the polls in PA, VA and OH. Hopefully somebody will be around to call an ambulance for me.
forest on October 7, 2008 at 2:09 PM
This poll has Obama and McCain tied.
nazo311 on October 7, 2008 at 2:10 PM
In saying CBS is the outlier, you are ignoring Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby.
I don’t know what to think about Survey USA. They released that VA poll yesterday with Obama +10, than Rasmussen released a VA poll with Obama +2.
Mark1971 on October 7, 2008 at 2:10 PM
The strange thing about polls is that they get you to believe in the unbelievable and in the end when they are proven wrong you are left wondering why you were fooled again.
johnt on October 7, 2008 at 2:10 PM
I’m not biting. All this polling and oversampling began shortly after such a huge surge was shown when Palin entered the Race. She is the game changer and they are trying to minmize her impact by skewing poll numbers.
theguardianii on October 7, 2008 at 2:11 PM
What worrys me is the registration drives are favoring the dhims.I think the long primary between Hillary & Obama had alot to do with that.
Juliet on October 7, 2008 at 2:11 PM
Polls are useful that way. Difficult to separate intent to manipulate from meaningful information. Bog readers down in complexities of sampling and analysis techniques, create discouragement and less enthusiasm for fighting to the end. Plus, it’s highly profitable.
a capella on October 7, 2008 at 2:11 PM
They are not dumb, they are just tired and upset with the Bush adminsitration. But I add in a hurry that it seems to me that 21% of republicans crossing over to the dems its a little overstated. And the more Bush appears on tv and speaks the more McCain sinks in the polls. Can’t we hide Bush for the next few weeks?
clemycali on October 7, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Well if there is any consolation in this tread, my g/f works at Roll Call and overheard Stu Rothenberg talking about Obama peaking to early and will most likely lose.
Let’s hope!!!
Lance Murdock on October 7, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Didn’t a bunch of people register D in Penn for Operation Chaos?
McLovin on October 7, 2008 at 2:13 PM
NO, spend the next 28 days accentuating the fact that the Fannie/Freddie/Franks (Dodd, Gorelick, Raines, Johnson) fiasco is one of the main reasons our 401K’s and economy have taken a nosedive. Press this every day. Make it known.
My parents had no idea this past weekend when I told them all about the F/F and democrat involvement in this. Lots of people, God love ‘em, still get their news from the MSM. This has to be drilled into the mind of every American for the next month.
carbon_footprint on October 7, 2008 at 2:13 PM
I recommend balancing your intake with a brighter outtake. I suggest Rush, but your mileage may vary.
Or just look at the new Ohio polls. Regardless, they’ve been shifting back and forth, no surprise on last weeks news. It’s not going to be ‘last week’ for 3 more weeks.
Spirit of 1776 on October 7, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Te only real gamechanger would be if Obama makes a horrific mistake in the debate. I’m not talking about some wonky policy misrepresentation or a lie about the extent of some association with a shady figure. All politicians lie, and voters understand that. In the first debate, Obama succeeded in talking past McCain, and in doing so avoided getting into any disputes in which he would risk looking angry or radical. He won because he seemed more calm and normal than people were expecting, and if he can do it again, he’ll win again. The economy is the issue this year, and people are in a Democratic mood. McCain’s only chance is to make people trust Obama less (bring up the shady stuff and get him to lash out), and I don’t even think that’s going to work.
Big S on October 7, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Good to see that Keystone Staters have gotten over their bitterness and their need to cling to guns and religion and have finally embraced the rich goodness of The One.
Or maybe this poll is just a smidge skewed?
Mr. D on October 7, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Well, this bitter, bible-clinging gun-totin’ Republican is praying that on election day that on election day only citizens are voting; NOT dead illegal convicts.
ocbrat on October 7, 2008 at 2:14 PM
brighter
outtakeoutlook. I need to stop multitasking.Don’t think there is one, but if Mac wins, it will because of a continued attack on Obama through the last month. If he demonstrates a strong vision for the economy tonight, that will help set up the other.
Spirit of 1776 on October 7, 2008 at 2:16 PM
I’m a little more encouraged by this type of polling. Three MSM icons saying less than flattering things today about BO and while they were minor they were still not favorable towards BO. In retaliation the polls will continue to be rigged to favor BO but I think that now that NYT, CNN and CBS have questioned things it is a signal to other media that they can climb out of the tank. Will the October surprise be the sinking of BO by the very media that created him? Has the MSM hand their OS moment about promoting someone that will not be favorable towards them?
jmarcure on October 7, 2008 at 2:16 PM
Do you know about how long ago that conversation may’ve taken place? Recently or a while back?
amerpundit on October 7, 2008 at 2:16 PM
If McCain get the:
if he can get all those points in; I think there’s a chance of a good hummina hummina hummina moment for Obama. And that’d be pretty awesome.
lorien1973 on October 7, 2008 at 2:18 PM
PA last went for the GOP 20 years ago. Shocka!
As for the national polls, is CBS an outlier? I could dismiss Zogby at O+3, but the latest Hotline is O+2. Democarcy Corps. has it at O+3. Gallup, Rasmussen and others have it more like O+7-8.
That’s why you look at the RCP average, or the Pollster.com average, both of which have it about 5-6 pts.
And if you really want to get what’s going on, take a look at the polls in the RCP average to see that McCain’s support is much steadier than Obama’s. The differing results probably turn on how hard people are pressed, personal vs. robot interviews, etc.
Karl on October 7, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Yep. These companies are putting everything they have on the line to try to get an Obama victory. These opinion polls mean nothing….but Allah just can’t help but thrill in anything that might depress voter turnout for McCain.
sick and sad.
And the worst thing is that these polls give moonbats and “restive urban youths” reason to question any actual vote that doesn’t coronate the Obamassiah.
These people want a race war, and broadcasting their BS polling data just validates their work. shameful
funky chicken on October 7, 2008 at 2:19 PM
Oh my! The Nils poll has McCain ahead! What must I have done wrong? I polled a buddy from Philly and a cousin from Pittsburgh? I have McCain ahead 2-0! Am I doing something wrong?
Nils2en on October 7, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Without follow-ups? I hope so, but why wouldn’t Obama just dismiss it with his ‘clever’ “I was 8 yrs old” line or respond with a Keating 5 line?
Spirit of 1776 on October 7, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Karl makes sense.
carbon_footprint on October 7, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Allah,
I think we another “gun to the head” thread in regards to the stock market imploding today too.
How low can it go?!?!?
I say 8000.
I’ve lost so much this month it’s kind I’ve become a little sadistic in watching it far further.
Lance Murdock on October 7, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Eh, maybe not so depressing. I’m a Democrat who can’t wait to walk into the polls, all smiley-faced, and choose McCain once I’m behind the curtains.
misslizzi on October 7, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Uh – yeah. Not. Buying.
By the way, the CBS party breakdown (on RV):
Dem: 37.9
Rep: 28.4
Ind: 33.7
Editor on October 7, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Yesterday
Lance Murdock on October 7, 2008 at 2:21 PM
McCain doesn’t need to become an econ warrior. He just needs to offer a plan. Obama will try to vote present and not offer anything substantive. He’s too risk averse.
McCain should also attack the future administration of the bailout plan by Dems. The plan was sold partially with promises of returns on the investment. Does anyone believe that any dollar that comes back will be used to retire the debt and not be given away to members of likely Dem demographics?
rw on October 7, 2008 at 2:21 PM
the only way I stay positive is by reading Hugh Hewitt’s blog posts. He’s got a good post up that you all must read. Check him daily, he’s a nice dose of happy warrior.
rightallthetime on October 7, 2008 at 2:22 PM
As of around 4:00AM,listening to ABC news break
on radio,top of the hour,they claimed Obama was
only 4 points ahead of Maverick!
So,why is it that there is an 11 point increase
in less than 8 hours!
canopfor on October 7, 2008 at 2:23 PM
These polls are in fact mathematical garbage generated by the left wing media to influence the electorate. Nevertheless, it is amazing how blatant their lies are.
rplat on October 7, 2008 at 2:23 PM
I live in Pennsylvania and I want to know who are these people that are giving him this lead? In my community north of Pittsburgh we all have McCain/Palin yard signs and no Nobama signs in site.
flyboy777 on October 7, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Hewitt is the polar opposite of AP. If palin had done nothing but drool for the entire VP debate he would have declared her to be the next Reagan.
Mark1971 on October 7, 2008 at 2:24 PM
McCain must pledge tonight that we will not seek 2 terms in office. That’s the gamechanger.
tdavisjr on October 7, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Hm McCain needs to run ads about Obama’s connection to the Joyce Foundation in Pennsylvania.
aengus on October 7, 2008 at 2:25 PM
It must be a sunny day where Allah is. He’s got his magnifying glass out and wreaking havoc on the poll watchers.
Shame on you Allah. lol
csdeven on October 7, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Excellent. Thanks.
amerpundit on October 7, 2008 at 2:26 PM
All Obama has to do is come out of philadelphia with a 300,000 person margin and he wins the state.
And he’ll get that, because every black voter there will be at the polls thanks to up to $1 million in street money the city Ds will have for GOTV.
i want our guy to win, but reality check, people.
albo on October 7, 2008 at 2:26 PM
I won’t insist on doubting Obama will take Pennsylvania.
But ahead by 15% when Kerry only won there by 2.5% in 2004? Seems unlikely to be more than 5% on election day, if that.
Deep down when I consult my “would America really elect this guy?” gut, I feel McCain will win the election. My gut’s been right every election since it started paying attention in ‘81.
DarkCurrent on October 7, 2008 at 2:26 PM
So, let me see: every NRA member in Pa is now voting for Obama.
AP, you’re full of crap.
TexasJew on October 7, 2008 at 2:26 PM
I know! that’s why I read him. I need that starry eyed optimism!
rightallthetime on October 7, 2008 at 2:26 PM
You know who that benefits?
Mitt Romney.
lorien1973 on October 7, 2008 at 2:26 PM
This poll is either loaded with whackos or all the real people were hiding out, clinging to their religion and guns.
Griz on October 7, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Something smells funny. It’s smells like cooked poll results.
crazy_legs on October 7, 2008 at 2:27 PM
In 2004 the Polls had Kerry ahead just weeks before the election. I had the same sick feeling in my stomach I do now. Remember the exit Polls? Hoping this is the same BS being spoon fed by the MSM.
calgrammy on October 7, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Ok, can someone tell me who is vetting the audience tonight? And, whom will be filtering the questions?
You know they won’t let someone get up there and pop off about Ayers, Wright or any other Obama questionables. So what is the real story w/this townhall debate?
JAM on October 7, 2008 at 2:28 PM
I agree. Mitt Romney is what that’s all about :-)
rightallthetime on October 7, 2008 at 2:28 PM
Wht is wrong with these bitter clingers? Why would they vote for a man who looks down his nose at them? I hope McCain has ads running in PA on that theme…
changer1701 on October 7, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Allah is just trying to plant logs in our pants.
scrubjay on October 7, 2008 at 2:29 PM
I can’t read AP. He, like Rick Moran, is very formulaic in that he selectively chooses and strings together an array of not-always-related points and then draws a hyberbolically negative or cynical conclusion that leaves one gasping for breath and wondering how these guys get up in the morning.
However, on the exit question, a message of accountability would be good. I think that, at this point, that is a message the supercedes specifics on the economy.
BigD on October 7, 2008 at 2:30 PM
If this is the case, how did Hillary win the PA primary?
Mark1971 on October 7, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Game over, man. Gamer over.
Editor on October 7, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Obama will roll in Philly–but we knew that already. In the Philly burbs, where I live, there is lots of support for mcCain and bambi. It will be close in the philly burbs, but its still fluid in this area. No one in my area, no matter how tired of Republicans, will like the ayers or Wright stuff. Center of state solid red, all mccain. NOt sure about western state, historically Dem but also deep with bitter clingers.
james23 on October 7, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Philly is 200% for Obama.
As in twice the number of registered voters will be voting Obama.
Very enthusiastic.
Will be the most vote stealingest election, ever.
On behalf of the worst Presidential nominee ever.
NoDonkey on October 7, 2008 at 2:30 PM
At this rate, according to the MSM, Obama will be up eleventy billion percent in time for the election. Funny thing, I never did believe the MSM.
Coronagold on October 7, 2008 at 2:31 PM
People that need a registration drive to get registered may not be all that passionate about voting, or know where or where to do so. I suppose some will be assisted, but probably not most.
DarkCurrent on October 7, 2008 at 2:31 PM
OH THIS IS GREAT! SO WHAT THE FRICK WE SUPPOSED TO DO NOW?!?!
GAME OVER MAN! GAME OVER!!
HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!
The stars have aligned perfectly for the socialist muslim to become the next POTUS.
The financial markets are in disarray and McCain has already admitted that the economy is not his strong suit…and the one chance he had to bring in a financial expert to the ticket, he brought in an attractive broad who speaks very homey like Huck to get the (m)asses all excited but has no experience or knowledge of the economy either.
And so people are looking at their 401k’s and are going to go or “hope and change” whatever that means even though McCain WAS the good guy who brought up that Fan and Fred were F***ed. Doesnt matter….perception is reality in politics.
Good luck tonite McCain…hope you do well but I doubt it.
Roger Waters on October 7, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Is anyone on this Planet really believing that 21 Percent of Republicans are going to vote for OBAMA!!?!?!?! The biggest freaking Socialist to ever run for President with the terrorist buddy and racist pastor? What republican is going to vote for that nonsense? They need to hand over their conservative credentials right now. I don’t buy this poll. Sorry try again.
Dritanian on October 7, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Obama will be way out of his element tonight. Remember the horrible teleprompter incident that he had at a townhall meeting? The one about the inhalator/breahalizer? Mac is the strongest in townhall settings; remember how they redesigned the stage at the Republican Convention for him? I see John McCain as the kind of man that is fueled by being down and behind. I see Barack Obama as the kind of
manchild that will eventually skip (like an old record player) and just keep repeating the same line over and over. I pray that tonight is the night. Prayer works. Pray for our country; in other words, pray against an Obama presidency.carbon_footprint on October 7, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Pennsylvania and New Jersey will both go to Obama because the state budgets are bankrupt and they will need bailouts.
Everybody knows this.
BigD on October 7, 2008 at 2:33 PM
CBS has the race at 47-43. A McCain win if you believe Juan Williams.
Spirit of 1776 on October 7, 2008 at 2:33 PM
I think we’re just going to have to do what we can to make PA as miserable a slog for Obama’s campaign as we can and make them sap funds here, and try and pick up D-10 and D-11 in the House.
doubleplusundead on October 7, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Does this also mean that Pennsylvanians are going to be stupid enough to re-elect Murtha to another term?
pilamaye on October 7, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Exactly, -5 for Bradley.
carbon_footprint on October 7, 2008 at 2:35 PM
OH NO THE POLLS THE POLLS THE POLLS
Jim Treacher on October 7, 2008 at 2:35 PM
That’s among likelies, btw.
Spirit of 1776 on October 7, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Its all part of the process of demororalizaion. Depress the Republicans and maybe they will simply stay home if the numbers are bad enough.
Frankly after polling performance in the past elections I tend to think they are either all in the tank for the Democrats or they have no idea what they are doing.
I’m put in mind of the “exit polling” in a number of places showing Kerry in a cakewalk. When it didn’t happen the media didn’t question the polling, they question the actual voting.
johnsteele on October 7, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Dickhead.
ManlyRash on October 7, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Really, if that state goes for Obama after he insulted them for clinging to their guns and religion, I will never visit PA again and will spit on anyone who comes from there.
Bunch of stupid backcountry schmuck balloons.
Lincoln on October 7, 2008 at 2:36 PM
If this is the case, how did Hillary win the PA primary?
the Ds in the rest of the state are conservative, and they liked her more. then Philyl split 290,000 for obama and 150,000 for clinton. most of those votes will go to obama because even philadelphia clinton democrats wouldn’t vote for a republican if he paid them.
albo on October 7, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Not to mention that East coast results come in first.
BigD on October 7, 2008 at 2:37 PM
From the state that keeps Murtha in office…I’m not surprised. I guess that “clinging to their guns and religion” isn’t insulting enough for them.
orlandocajun on October 7, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Lets try the Mocha…..
Healing you will feel
dmann on October 7, 2008 at 2:37 PM
why Obama’s pulling more Republicans than McCain is Democrats? If Obama is president, there will be plenty of conservative and Republican opposition to leftism in America, and conservatives will be at the forefront of national politics instead of being marginalized. If McCain is president, there will be no conservative and Republican opposition to leftism in America, including, of course, McCain’s own leftism, and conservatives will find themselves put down and marginalized by the very president they helped elect. Conservatives cannot afford another Bush in office. That’s why.
arma_virumque on October 7, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Does this also mean that Pennsylvanians are going to be stupid enough to re-elect Murtha to another term
Of course. You been to Johnstown? It’s Murthaville. There’s nothing to do out there other than hunt deer, wait for spring floods, and vote democratic
albo on October 7, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Look for Jonah Goldberg’s recent article in USA Today; it’s much better than Lowry’s article.
McCain needs to stay away from foreign affairs–or at least not dwell on it. He needs to drop the senatorial pleasantries and even go so far as to call Obama a fraud.
Correct Obama’s lies about both health plans. Correct Obama’s spin about the cause of the bail-out. Correct the notion that tax policy has anything to do with our current difficulties. Correct the general notion that “cracking down” on CEO pay will rectify anything; it seems to me that’s a matter for shareholders to take up with the officer and the boards of directors who hired and compensated the officers. That said, it’s fine to go after the Fannie-Freddie officers because taxpayers are ultimately picking up the tab–those are GSEs, unlike most public companies.
McCain simply has to take his time, check his line of fire, turn to the camera and the American people, and begin a four-week barrage of nonstop fire.
BuckeyeSam on October 7, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Could be. I’m far away and have been for most of the last few years. And I had sashimi for dinner on Monday. My gut could be screwed up.
But those conditions were all true in 3 previous elections that turned out as it expected, so who knows.
DarkCurrent on October 7, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Deceiving the elect…
Grafted on October 7, 2008 at 2:39 PM
No way. So McCain is really up 6%.
reaganaut on October 7, 2008 at 2:39 PM
The media is such a criminal cabal it is infuriating. I know McCain can come back, but how with such a criminal media?
So he will say the right things. The media will suppress every word.
Blah.
blatantblue on October 7, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Conservatives will always work from a disadvantage because of the insistence on self-reliance and personal responsibility as avenues to success. It’s much easier to get people to support you when you promise to give them things rather than making them work for it.
This argument obviously works:
1) The wealthy are evil and exploit the working classes.
2) You work for wealth you do not receive.
3) The Democratic Party will take the unearned riches of the wealthy and return it to those who actually earned it.
(i.e. the middle and lower classes).
4) All working classes shall be equal but some like the Kennedy’s, the Obamas, Soros, the Hollywood elitists et.al. will be more equal than others. (Apologies to Animal Farm)
5) Workers of the world unite…you have nothing to lose but your chains.
6) And the birds will sing, global warming will go away, skies will be blue and everyone will have an electric car.
sdd on October 7, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Ya, I know. I’m using survey math.
reaganaut on October 7, 2008 at 2:40 PM
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