Debate analysis: Both men improve, McCain wins on points
posted at 11:00 pm on October 7, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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The second presidential debate goes into the record books, and this time both men managed to stick closer to their game plans. Barack Obama rid himself of the “John is right” tic that appeared in various forms almost a dozen times in the first debate. John McCain gave a much more focused response on economic issues. In the end — literally, in this case — McCain prevailed on his strength on foreign policy and national security.
Obama improved from the first debate. He kept his voice even and didn’t get as rattled. Last time, Obama’s voice kept pitching higher when McCain attacked him, and he spent most of the evening defending himself. This time, Obama stuck to his own agenda, only getting flustered once after a McCain attack, and stumbling when Tom Brokaw shut him down, invoking the debate agreement between the two camps.
McCain also improved, most clearly in the economic debate. This time he hammered Obama on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and challenged the assumption that “deregulation” caused the financial crisis. He looked more confident and spoke more clearly on that subject, and didn’t get nearly as deep into populist blather as in the first debate. On health care, he offered a strong endorsement of free-market principles and providing choice to consumers. (In fact, I think both candidates did very well on health care, with Obama and McCain making the clearest pitches for their approaches than on any other subject.)
McCain did somewhat better on entitlement reform than Obama did. Unfortunately, the question came as more of a follow-up than a separate topic, but McCain offered details and substantive proposals, while Obama talked about spending even more money on a series of new entitlements. McCain also used that to underscore his credentials as a bipartisan agent of change, and noted that Obama has none at all.
Coming into the last 30 minutes, though, I thought the debate was more or less a draw. That’s when Brokaw turned the debate to foreign policy and national security, and McCain simply outclassed Obama. Despite the nearly two weeks between the debates, Obama still couldn’t offer a coherent policy on Russia. He stuck to general themes, and more than once tried to invoke Iraq on completely unrelated topics. McCain, on the other hand, had extensive knowledge of the subjects and gave detailed answers that demonstrated Obama’s superficial knowledge — to the point that Obama complained that McCain thought he was “green behind the ears”, a flub that will no doubt live in ridicule for the next couple of days.
Brokaw did a solid, professional job as moderator. I didn’t think Brokaw would do poorly, and I failed to catch any obvious bias in his moderation. I thought the town-hall format was a joke, though. Brokaw and his team selected the questions ahead of time and chose the participants, and in the end it just looked like Brokaw had outsourced some of the moderator duties to guest voices.
McCain won, but he didn’t score a knockout by any stretch of the imagination. Is this a game-changer? I think not. It may help narrow the gap a little, but I think the two men are pretty evenly matched in these debates. I wouldn’t expect a knockout in the last debate, either.
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Lorien, I am still a FredHead. I would have voted for Brownback, Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani before picking McCain.
When I think of the damage Obama will do to my country and my son’s future, my differences with McCain seem miniscule. Every day I pray that McCain will win, but I’m a Reaganite through and through — I know a McCain victory would not be a conservative revival.
Terrie on October 8, 2008 at 1:35 AM
Macleod, I think you’re dead wrong. The only thing that will re-establish any credibility in the market is to re-assert real free market principles. If you don’t, you distort the value of everything to what some govt jackass says it should be. That kind of thing has proven to be a total disaster every time it’s been tried. That doesn’t mean that free markets can’t be regulated, it means they have to be will minded, or else people will take advantage of no oversight, which is exactly what happened here. I just don’t buy this, “Well, we went a little socialist, now we have no option but to go the rest of the way”. What a load of HORSE PUSSY! We need to get back to common sense banking and not throw the baby out with the bath water!
Bikerken on October 8, 2008 at 1:38 AM
I’m back to my (Pre-Palin) problem. I fear the McCain will destroy the conservative movement with his leftist pandering. Bush has done damage, but it’s fixable.
Obama will do damage, sure. But the finances in this country are so messed up, that it’s gonna collapse soon anyways – I think around 2011. If McCain is going to drive us off that cliff by not fixing anything – and indeed making things worse – then I don’t want my party at the head of it.
Pick up the pieces in 2012.
And I hate this line of thought. It’s very frustrating that conservatives don’t have a real choice (again!)
If I knew Palin’s email or phone, I’d tell her to start talking up small government. Personal responsibility and think about 2012.
lorien1973 on October 8, 2008 at 1:41 AM
We are way past Constitutional. And I said the price going up was a fallacy. But it is what drove the real estate bubble.
Anyway, we are way past unConstitutional. We are into socialism big time. The government agreed to buy the bad loans. That is done. Our congress voted for it. Can’t be undone.
Our Congress basically socialized those mortgages. They are publically owned now. So how do we get back to free market principles when we dispose of them?
I think a plan that lessens the impact of all this on you and I is a good idea. And renegotiating the loans lessens the impact for the reasons I’ve already stated.
petunia on October 8, 2008 at 1:41 AM
Petunia, technically, you’re right about the govt buying the bad loans, if they own them, they can do whatever stupid thing they want with them. But when they auction them off, which is what they are saying they are going to do, will the new owner of the mortgage decide to do that? If the govt buys a half million dollar mortgage loan for 40 cents on the dollar and decides to lower the principle to 300,000, (which may be the actual current value, that’s pretty common here in San Diego), how are they going to sell it to anyone? The truth of the matter is that the person who bought is not going to be able to afford the mortgage on a $300,000 dollar house either, unless they can keep a teaser rate for about a hundred years. Who is going to buy that mortgage? How much is the govt ever going to recover that mortgage? The fact is this, you cannot lower the market to the lowest common denominator and expect it to prosper. DID NONE OF YOU EVER STUDY ECONOMICS??? And if you think I’m BS’ing you, have any of you actually bothered to read what the premier economic experts of our time have been saying about this??? HINT: many of them have been screaming about this for years.
Bikerken on October 8, 2008 at 1:54 AM
There is a whole generation that associates conservatism with George W. Bush and that grieves me. But I don’t think the remedy is letting Obama appoint Supreme Court Justices or reestablishing the Carter era.
Terrie on October 8, 2008 at 1:55 AM
petunia on October 8, 2008 at 1:41 AM
I would like to associate myself your remarks, if you’ll have me.
No, my argument is that we already went a lot socialist, but got a bunch of smarty-pants on Wall Street to think up a way of hiding the fact from us. The bailout is part of what psychologists call “the return of the repressed.”
Choosing not to pay for our decade + of delusion wouldn’t make it any less delusional. It would just be another way of pereptuating the delusion – the flight from responsibility.
Put another way, as a society we were addicted to a toxic drug, and didn’t even realize it. You can advocate cold turkey, if you like, but some of our best doctors – our best conservative doctors – are advising us that our constitution can’t stand it. Making the effort increases the risk of creating of boomeranging into terminal dependency – at least that’s what the latest opinion polls seem to indicate.
If you’re a pure libertarian, then I can’t really argue with you. It’s not a stance, however, that has ever gained much of a purchase in the electorate as a whole. The bailout is like methadone. The McCain initiative attempts to be a better delivery system – within, as petunia explains, a controlled withdrawal program we’ve already committed to.
CK MacLeod on October 8, 2008 at 1:57 AM
You also, explained the healthcare proposal well too. It is my fault that I haven’t paid that much attention…
But I just wanted to say that that paragraph about sub-prime health insurance is really good. I haven’t thought it all out… but does he say he is forcing them to lower premiums? Or that market forces would force lower premiums?
I really do hope we can do something about healthcare. Although I don’t think it is as new a problem as everyone says. I have a uncle who had to take out bankruptcy over healthcare bills in the 1970s. There isn’t anything new about that.
My daughter-in-law can’t get health insurance because she had some trouble carrying twins… now they say she is uninsurable. I’m not sure that is at any price however, so McCain’s plan would actually help faster than Obama’s it seems to me. They could look all over the country and have enough money to actually find some insurance.
Free market is always better. But without employer benefits doesn’t that eliminate the group rates? I heard somewhere that McCain’s plan would have the effect of lowering over all health costs but I don’t know how that would work.
petunia on October 8, 2008 at 1:58 AM
By the way Petunia, when you say things like, “Anyway, we are way past unConstitutional. We are into socialism big time. The government agreed to buy the bad loans. That is done. Our congress voted for it. Can’t be undone.” It really sounds like you want it that way. I’m sorry, I spent twenty years in the service and I just don’t bend over and take it up the patoot that easy! Anything congress can do, they can undo, tomorrow! Did you not notice how fast they shoved that bailout bill through? A president with any real gonads would not have signed it. The next president will only make things worse from what I can see. I’m just asking this Petunia, do you want to walk into a courtroom where judges are deciding what peoples houses SHOULD be worth? Are you so limpwristed as to just give in to that? I say fight back dammit! The ENTIRE house of representatives could be out of a job next month if we just had the balls to vote them out!
Bikerken on October 8, 2008 at 2:03 AM
CK, Understand your premises complete and agree to a great extent. Problem is, I had a sister addicted to methodon and that was what killed her, not the herion before. Being a little bit less of a junkie is like being killed a little bit slower, with no chance of any other outcome. The problem is that there is NO such thing as a graduated withdrawal from socialism. Socialism is civilization cancer that once it starts, requires immediate surgery to remove. You can’t put makeup on the malenoma and say, I’m much better now.
Bikerken on October 8, 2008 at 2:08 AM
Theres something I’ve noticed in this whole dialog, there are those who live there life taking total responsibility for their own actions without thinking. Those who would never even have it cross their mind that the govt should bail them out if they made a real stupid decision. Those people are conservatives. Then, there are those who just really don’t seem to think it’s a bad idea. Where is their pride?
Bikerken on October 8, 2008 at 2:13 AM
Yes that is exactly how I see it. I do think that we are all somewhat to blame for it however.
The reason John McCain couldn’t get more support for his attempts to reign this all in was that everyone’s house price was going up! Even if we didn’t cash in we were thinking… well that helps the retirement plans to have that much equity in my house!
Having someone come and throw a wet blanket over our dreaming was not what any of us were looking for. In fact getting anything passed that stopped the real estate boom would have been very very difficult.
So the boom turned into a bomb. Or it was all along and we just didn’t know it.
petunia on October 8, 2008 at 2:14 AM
If Obama is elected, I’m not sure we’ll see a 2012. I’m not kidding.
capitalist piglet on October 8, 2008 at 2:25 AM
Bikerken, as I’m sure you’re aware, the methadone comparison was just a metaphor, but I really do appreciate what you’re saying. Maybe we agree more than we disagree, overall. I hate this situation. If I didn’t think there was a non-trivial chance of it getting a lot worse, to unpredictable effects but most likely very unfavorable to freedom, I wouldn’t be thinking in these terms.
CK MacLeod on October 8, 2008 at 2:27 AM
I don’t like it. But it is done. Even if everyone of those Congressmen were voted out it is still a done deal. They aren’t going to redo it. And George Bush is gone too.
And yeah, it was pushed through so fast just like a con-artist would do it… I hope we can find a way to punish ACORN and Obama and Frank and Dodd and any Republicans that pushed this on us too!
The only thing that can really be done now is more social engineering with the renegotiated loans. (Sorry but I think it is true) Because they will cost less to all of us than foreclosures would.
And then I hope it will be over.
I agree with you about people who can’t afford the loan. There needs to be some standards for the redo, income verification and the proper debt to loan ratios and some indication of on time payments before the ARMs reset or whatever made the loan go bad.
But if they prove they can make the new payment. Well that helps the price of my house stablize. And the economy recover faster. So I’m okay with it.
Maybe I misunderstand and they are going to make it so everyone gets to keep the house whether they can pay or not. But I don’t think so that just wouldn’t make sense–push the problem down the road.
petunia on October 8, 2008 at 2:33 AM
Buy up people’s mortgages?! COME BACK RON PAUL.
lodge on October 8, 2008 at 2:44 AM
On the Israel question I believe Obama absolutely lost the election with his answer.
Let me explain with a true story.
The Texas caucuses happened the evening of the primaries, as you may have heard.
The Republicans didn’t caucus because McCain had already won the majority of delegates by that time.
But I went anyway, thinking I might gain some knowledge because normally our vote doesn’t change the primary elections and nobody, not even the seniors could remember a primary, let alone a caucus.
So here the precinct captain happens to be a pure bred democrat (blatantly open Hillary shill).
She was very adamant about the caucus voting on these stupid liberal causes, as proposals that should be voted on at the Democrat’s state convention.
And so they read off all these lengthy proposals that included the usual liberal pet causes as you might expect a) social justice, b) anti-discrimination, blah blah blah c) right to universal health care blah blah blah…..
…. And of course every liberal (all except me) in the room was agreeing out loud with their yes vote: YEAH YEAH RAH RAH YIP YIP HURRAY and so on and so forth and such as…
(Gagging at this point I almost walked out)
BUT THEN, but then… here comes the juicy proposal that explains why Obama will lose this election….
Do you believe your Democrat delegate should vote for Israel to disclose how many nukes it has?
And the answer so overwhelmingly (and loudly): NO! NEVER! NO!
Absolutely shocked me!! I was dumbfounded!!
Thinking to myself..what just happened here? Did these liberals just become Republicans instantaneously? What the hell?
The answer should be obvious. Americans across party lines do not want Israel defenseless. Americans across party lines don’t want to lose in a war or against terrorists.
And what was Obama’s memorable line on the Israel question? “Green behind the ears”
All I’ve got to say to you pessimists is.. Do you remember that John Kerry was up 10% at this time in 2004?
And what was that stupid thing he said about studying hard or you’ll end up in Iraq?
Right.
Obama’s “green behind the ears” comment when the subject was Israel, is ten (10) times as bad.
Mcguyver on October 8, 2008 at 3:04 AM
THIS DEBATE WAS SO UNBELIEVABLY BORING …
titus_pullo on October 8, 2008 at 3:59 AM
Does anyone else notice Obama’s patronizing body language in the photo for this thread? Is this photo from Debate 2 or from Debate 1?
Obama does this assumption of authority a lot when greeting or departing with politicos and I think too many of the receivers allow it. Don’t allow it in Debate 3, McCain. Assert yourself a little.
misslizzi on October 8, 2008 at 5:25 AM
If Obama even bothers showing up, I’m afraid of what it will look like. I’m guessing it’ll be like Obama walking around a boxing ring with McCain three steps behind swinging wildly.
McCain took the wind out of my sails. I certainly understand the importance of avoiding an Obama presidency. (Just think of his Supreme Court nominees.) The problem is that I don’t think McCain understands that.
BuckeyeSam on October 8, 2008 at 6:16 AM
Best “I shoulda said” line:
Senator, I can see behind your ears…you’re not green back there, just wet.
joepub on October 8, 2008 at 6:39 AM
(Just think of his Supreme Court nominees.)
BuckeyeSam on October 8, 2008 at 6:16 AM
That alone should destroy Obama’s chances! I also like to remind myself of these little gems.
From Audacity of Hope:’I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.’
From Dreams of My Father:’I never emulate white men and brown men whose fates didn’t speak to my own. It was into my father’s image, the black man, son of Africa , that I’d packed all the attributes I sought in myself , the attributes of Martin and Malcolm, DuBois and Mandela.’
From Dreams of My Father: ‘It remained necessary to prove which side you were on, to show your loyalty to the black masses, to strike out and name names.’
From Dreams of My Father:’There was something about him that made me wary, a little too sure of himself, maybe. And white.’
From Dreams of My Father : ‘I found a solace in nursing a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mother’s race.’
From Dreams of My Father:’I ceased to advertise my mother’s race at the age of 12 or 13, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites.’
The man is a racist as proven by his own words. The man chose to surround himself with the likes of William Ayers, Reverend Wright, Tony Rezko, Farrakan, and other radical people who preach the message that America is evil. This man will destroy the progress made between blacks and whites. This man should never be in this position,
Shame on Democrats for allowing such a man to head their party!
Keemo on October 8, 2008 at 7:04 AM
Obama keeps saying that he is only going to tax the top 5%.
Well the top 5% make less than 20% of the countries income, and 36% of that is already being taxed away.
How high is he going to have raise taxes on the top 5% in order to pay for tax cuts for everyone else, and for the 100’s of billions in new spending that he has proposed?
MarkTheGreat on October 8, 2008 at 7:05 AM
This was not a debate. It was more like a rehearsal for a recital of a bland rehash of positions.
Buy Danish on October 8, 2008 at 7:07 AM
I get up this morning, look at the headlines and see that the UK is planning a bailout of more than 800 billion pounds as well as nationalizing some banks. Japan’s stock market tanked and here we are debating whether or not buying up some mortgages is socialism. I don’t think some folks are really getting what this is or how big it is or what the long term effects of doing nothing are. In fact I don’t think they understand that doing nothing was never going to be an option.
Terrye on October 8, 2008 at 7:10 AM
I would also like to remind our Jewish members of HA about the relationship Obama chose to have with Farrakhan, a relationship where Farrakhan was a tutor and Obama was a student. How any Jew could vote for Obama is beyond me!
http://www.adl.org/special_reports/farrakhan_own_words2/on_jews.asp
Keemo on October 8, 2008 at 7:13 AM
Palin did better than either of them.
fossten on October 8, 2008 at 7:13 AM
I thought the debate went well for McCain. It is true that he did not smack Obama upside the head and call him a commie, but then I think some people have really strange ideas about what debates like this are supposed to look like. I hope that in the next debate when they don’t have to deal with questions from socalled undecideds maybe they can get something more interesting to talk about.
But while I like to hear Palin go after Obama on Ayers I am not sure that kind of attack will help. I just don’t think most people care. It seems to me more Americans are pissed off at Congress than they are people like Ayers. That might be a better line of attack for McCain.
Terrye on October 8, 2008 at 7:14 AM
You’re right, we should just shut up and let the government take over. IT knows what is good for us. Move along, nothing to see here. We’ll take our socialism and like it, all because Terrye said so.
/s
fossten on October 8, 2008 at 7:15 AM
fossten:
I like Palin very much, but she has never had to debate Obama. I am not sure how that would work. I think we might love to see her go after him, but that kind of thing always seems to backfire with most voters. I don’t know, but I think that blaming McCain is pointless. Obama beat Hillary Clinton, the Queen of Mean. I simply can not imagine that Romney or Huck could have done any better with a personality like Obama. The only man I can see doing any better on a national stage would be Rudy.
Terrye on October 8, 2008 at 7:18 AM
fossten:
I did not say we just shut up and let the government take over. I am saying that when things start getting this scary this fast the American people are going to demand that the powers that be do something. And if they do not then they will replace them. If you want to go out there and tell people that you really do not give a rat’s ass what happens to their job or their retirement or their bank, that your conservative principles are more important than anything else…fine, but do not be surprised if they treat you like an out of touch ideologue.
Terrye on October 8, 2008 at 7:21 AM
I just think that people have unrealistic expectations. They think that McCain can come out there and scream at Obama about Ayers or something and most Americans will turn on Obama. Obviously, most Americans do not give a rat’s behind about Ayers. Sad but true. The very fact that Obama could lead in the polls after the whole Wright issue was out in the open amazes me. But it seems to be the truth.
So just yelling at McCain for not hitting Obama on issues that people obviously are not even thinking about is useless. McCain has to make himself appear to be the more prepared and ready to take command in a scary world. All this stuff about McCain not having balls and not fighting is just useless. People have been listening to politicians do nothing but fight for years, and look where it got us.
Terrye on October 8, 2008 at 7:27 AM
McCain is never going to be any more than he is. He is still using ‘Roberts Rules of Orders’ to run his campaign, The 527’s need to step up and start hammering Barry and his associations.
red131 on October 8, 2008 at 7:34 AM
I don’t have time to read all the comments, but I thought Brokaw was awful! Just awful. He had no control, he gave Obama ALL kinds of extra time, and he wouldn’t shut up about his own lack of control!
anniekc on October 8, 2008 at 7:34 AM
Palin is forcing the Obama media to finally respond to Obama’s relationships with radical people who are on record blaming America for the evil in the world. Palin appears to be the future of the Republican Party. Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal are a breath of fresh air, and bring much hope to the Conservative movement.
The critical exchange came early, and McCain won it because he has the truth on his side. Obama did not answer McCain’s stinging assault on Obama’s and his party’s complicity in the financial meltdown brought about by Fannie and Freddie. Obama’s statement that “I never supported Fannie Mae” is an invitation to MSM to examine his real relationship with this financial crisis and its prime movers. This exchange need to be replayed again and again, as does McCain’s comparison of Obama’s tax and protectionism policies with those of Hoover’s. (Hugh Hewitt)
Despite the fact that last nights debate was boring, dull, and glum; McCain did manage to throw some salt on Obama’s open wounds, wounds opened up over the past few days by Sarah Palin having the courage to go where the MSM refuses to go.
Keemo on October 8, 2008 at 7:34 AM
I read your response to say that it is better to stay in office than to stick to your principles. Yeah. Schwarzenegger agrees with you.
fossten on October 8, 2008 at 7:44 AM
Brokaw picked those boring questions from the thousands of interesting submissions? Brokaw stifled what could have been a game-changing debate.
marklmail on October 8, 2008 at 8:00 AM
Corrected.
MrLynn on October 8, 2008 at 8:25 AM
Ed, winning “on points” as scored by political junkies isn’t going to influence the average voter. All he hears is that the country is going to hell in a handbasket, so he’s going to vote for the slick-talkin’ new guy.
The only way we’re going to get to those people is for some startling revelation to reveal what a charade Obambi is pulling, how he is just a tool for Ayers the Communist, and will betray Israel and the United States if given the opportunity. It has to be so stunning that the MSM can’t ignore it.
Not likely, I know.
MrLynn on October 8, 2008 at 8:32 AM
Great comment.
RushBaby on October 8, 2008 at 8:32 AM
Captain, for years I have been telling you that you were “spot on” on many occasions and numerous topics … but this time you were “spot off” on your analysis of the debate.
McCain has two campaigns going … he is sliming up Obama on the trail along with his lipsticked pitbull who has no more creditbility and the most negatives of the 4 candidates, in tow, and he slides in an out not bringing any of it up in the debates. He won’t win running two elections. If you are going to make accusations on the stump, bring them to the debate … or forget them for good.
Unlike Obama who seems to have nailed down his base and is working on and winning over the moderates, McCain still feels he needs to win his base and only spends 2 hours winning over moderates and doing a piss poor job in the debates attempting it.
He is an old man who should retire. In fact I prefer we put an age and term length on all our national politicians. 2 terms as a Senator, 4 teams as a congressman, age 70 mandatory retirement.
Monkei on October 8, 2008 at 8:33 AM
After this http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081008/D93M1JEG1.html
I will no longer be voting McCain. In fact, I will probably re-register as Independent or Libertarian.
McCain was a huge mistake, I am flat out convinced now he was picked to lose. I dont see how any sane Republican of any kind can support him after saying this.
I wish this wasnt the case.
xRos on October 8, 2008 at 8:47 AM
I’m done, McCain stood at his convention and talked about “standing up and fighting” and all he has done is be the typical weak “moderate” squish he’s always been. I just hope Obama does very little damage in two years, and I say after two years because he should have a majority of Republicans in the House and Senate after that…..
Randy1968 on October 8, 2008 at 8:55 AM
http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=14015
W]e are now witnessing nearly all of the economic policy dials that were once turned toward growth being twisted back towards recession. [O]ur politicians in both parties, but especially the liberal Democrats, are getting everything wrong — tax policy, regulatory policy, monetary policy, spending policy, trade policy. We call this the assault on growth. The political class seems to be almost intentionally steering the United States economy into the abyss — and, to borrow a phrase from P.J. O’Rourke, the American electorate, alas, seems ready and willing to hand them the keys and the bottle of whiskey to do it.
The debate last night just reinforced to me that neither of these two men are ready to deal with what’s coming.
Obama scares me most of all. Any liberal promising tax increases is something to be wary of because it always turns out to be ten times MORE than they promise…..but Obama is likely to increase taxes, handouts, and spending like we have never seen and at a time when it will be most detrimental.
Oh well….we will get the government we deserve in the end.
Goodeye_Closed on October 8, 2008 at 9:04 AM
When I first saw this debate, I didn’t think there were any game-changers on either side. But post-debate pundits thought that McCain dropped a “bombshell” with his proposal to re-negotiate mortgages on houses where borrows were in danger of foreclosure, and according to Carly Fiorina, this was an idea that McCain had bandied about last April.
We saw the “bailout” bill pass Congress, with lots of Federal money for banks caught with bad loans, but nothing for John Q. Public who is caught with a mortgage he can’t afford. From a political point of view, McCain might have won the votes of people facing foreclosure, or who might be facing it next year or the year after, as rates on ARM’s increase.
I don’t know the details of McCain’s plan, and such a proposal might sound shocking to us free-market types, but let’s try to get a handle on this with some “reasonable” numbers. For example, suppose a young couple got lured into a 30-year ARM for $400K a few years ago, and is now facing 8% interest rates, which they can’t afford. They would be paying $32,000/year in interest, plus whatever principal pay-down is demanded by the bank (usually not much–wwe’ll assume zero here).
Now, suppose the assessed value of the home is down to $250K (a 37.5% decrease), and McCain or his Treasury Secretary proposes a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage at market rates, say 6%. So the Government pays $400K to the holder of the ARM, and lends $250K to the couple. According to standard fixed-rate loan tables, the couple has a monthly payment of $1499, or $17,988 per year, to the Government. The couple gets to keep their house, and saves at least $14,012 per year in mortgage payments, and are very thankful to John McCain.
The bank holding the mortgage has gotten rid of the bad loan, and has $400K to lend to someone else, hopefully with better credit than the couple.
The Government has paid out a total of $650K, and is receiving $17,988 per year, and has a lien on a house worth $250K. The Government is making about 2.77% on its overall investment (which is higher than the Fed funds rate, and only slightly less than the T-bill rate), which is still better than paying $400K for a loan nobody wants.
If the couple can make the payments on the fixed-rate mortgage, one of three things can happen (1) the couple stays in the house, and the Government continues to make 2.77% on its investment; (2) in better times, a bank buys out the mortgage leaving the Government on the hook for $400K; (3) in better times, the couple sells the house at a profit, pays off the Government and has a down payment for another home.
In the current bailout plan, the Government is on the hook for $400K, the mortgage-holder is bailed out, and the couple loses their home. In the McCain plan, the Government might still be on the hook for $400K (or might make money), the mortgage-holder is bailed out, and the couple keeps their home.
Analysts have estimated that this plan would cost $300 billion. At $250K per home, this would be 1.2 million homes. This would mean 1.2 million happy couples, or 2.4 million votes for McCain. With 1.2 million fewer homes on the foreclosure market, the law of supply and demand would drive home prices back up somewhat, meaning more home-equity as collateral for home-equity loans for the vast majority of responsible borrowers whose home value far exceeds the principal on their mortgage.
Granted, these “seat-of-the-pants” numbers might be off, the devil might be in the details, and McCain’s got some ’splainin’ to do here. But on a preliminary analysis, this plan could be a huge improvement on the current bailout plan, and contain something for the millions of VICTIMS of this crisis–those who risk losing their homes. From a purely political point of view, McCain offered millions of debate viewers a concrete plan to help debt-troubled homeowners, and people will be talking about it. What was Obama’s plan?
Steve Z on October 8, 2008 at 9:07 AM
This would make an effective ad for McCain.
Obama is stuck in command and control mode. He promised to force health insurance to cover mental health treatment. Granted, this is a greater concern to democrats because they are much more likely to be clinically insane.
It is unavoidable that this mandate will increase costs for health insurance.
Right_of_Attila on October 8, 2008 at 9:11 AM
Monkei on October 8, 2008 at 8:33 AM
I agree with the “term limits” portion of your comment, as well as the fact that McCain is still trying to nail down his base. However, I think you will be surprised on Nov. 5th when we all see the details of the results of this election. Obama has the hard core Liberal portion of his base locked in; no surprise there. The center left, more Conservative Democrats (such as most of my family) are in no way locked up for Obama. The man is simply not ready to lead this nation; maybe in 8-12 years, but he has failed utterly to demonstrate that he is ready for the job of potus at this time.
This is a tough election for me monkei, as Mitt Romney was my choice, and I believe to this day that Mitt would be eating Obama up on every issue, while exposing Obama for the empty suit he is. I see this election as a vote for the lessor of two evils. Obama will load the deck with radical Liberals, filling every government run organization with radicals, including the SC. That dynamic alone will hurt our country for decades to come.
Sarah Palin is not ready for the job of potus, that I agree with. However, Palin and Jindal are the future of the Republican Party, and that gives all of you Liberals reason for concern, as the majority of America remains center right and these two politicians connect really well with us.
Keemo on October 8, 2008 at 9:13 AM
Is there any serious thought to forming a third party (conservative) where true conservatives can flourish with ideas and freedom without being corrupted by bi-partisanship? The value of free enterprise and its dramatic results has been tremendously diminished and degraded by that wonderful word compromise. Assuming Allah is right, we have four or eight years to get this done. Can it happen?
Fuquay Steve on October 8, 2008 at 9:24 AM
I don’t think that McCain can take many more victories like this one before falling permanently below the 200 electoral vote level.
MB4 on October 8, 2008 at 9:28 AM
“The only man I can see doing any better on a national stage would be Rudy.”
Terrye on October 8, 2008
A Fred Thompson/Rudy ticket would have annihilated Obama/Biden!
Goodeye_Closed on October 8, 2008 at 9:32 AM
Pardon the interruption, but is the troll in here that was bragging last week about the kid that hacked Palin’s email getting off…. Well, check the front page link. The Feds just indicted his sorry a$$.
CC
CapedConservative on October 8, 2008 at 9:40 AM
CC, this was awesome:
funky chicken on October 8, 2008 at 9:53 AM
Here’s why I think we are in trouble: America is only center right when it isn’t up to it’s eyeballs in debt. Many of my friends are planning to vote for Obama because they see hand outs coming. These are people that have traditionally been conservative, but over the past few years had problems putting their Visas away, and telling their kids no. None of them are about to lose their house or anything like that, but many are living pay check to pay check so they can pay off their American dream. I think Obama represents a light, although false light, at the end of the tunnel. I think many see him as the way out of their self made problems because they don’t want to deal with it. It’s very sad, but all I hear from many people is give me, give me, give me, and none of them will own up to their bad decisions, it’s just easier to blame the current administration.
gator70 on October 8, 2008 at 9:53 AM
The Best Man In This Race:
Is A WOMAN and
I’m Votin For SARAH!
GOD, GUTS, GUNS!
dhunter on October 8, 2008 at 9:54 AM
I was thinking that too. Why didn’t McCain take that opening and run with it? Obama’s biggest weakness is that he thinks bigger and more intrusive government is the answer to every problem: the government should be in charge of making sure everyone has “affordable” health care, just like the government should be ensuring that everyone who can’t afford a mortgage gets one anyway. We’ve all seen how well that mortgage thing worked out. The government dictated how the markets should behave, and now we’re on the brink of a world-wide financial meltdown. Do we really want the government doing the same to our healthcare system? Look at the mess they’ve already made of Medicaid and Medicare — both highly inefficient and plagued with massive fraud. We want more of this???
AZCoyote on October 8, 2008 at 10:02 AM
uh, in Texas the republicans dont caucus to award delegates. the delegates are awarded strictly by the primary process. the caucus you went to wouldve been strictly democrat party stuff so no surprise you heard a bunch of left wing tripe.
chasdal on October 8, 2008 at 10:03 AM
I’m pretty darn sick of hearing people put Obama and McCain together…they aren’t even close and it is insulting…so please stop.
tomas on October 8, 2008 at 10:10 AM
McCain won that debate and he will win the next one…if he needs a knockout to win it isn’t going to happen and never was. Only Obama messing up can do that.
When people have to get in that voting booth and choose…minds can change quickly.
tomas on October 8, 2008 at 10:15 AM
Thanks for running the numbers. This is what I was thinking as well, that while I don’t like it, it is probably the best solution to the problem, rather than just kicking the bums out of their houses. We might feel better with the latter option, but the only buyer that can either lower the basis or afford to lower the rate to below prime is the treasury, and those voters now have a choice of a question mark (no Obama plan), or a plan that will let them keep their houses.
Vashta.Nerada on October 8, 2008 at 10:19 AM
Yes, and Palin continues to talk about personal responsibility which none of the other 3 candidates discuss, so good for her. Comes from her “averageness,” I suspect. She’s not much different than the rest of us whereas the other 3 really are in a different world than average people.
I don’t know if we are born selfish, but I do know we quickly learn. A baby cries and gets what it wants. Hungry? Cry. Poop in your diaper? Cry. Can’t sleep? Cry. And so on. Many babies grow up to be selfish adults.
As a country and as individuals, we need self discipline. Until that happens, we will always be faced with these issues.
Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 10:19 AM
And the whole concept of anonymous online commenters repeating over and over again that John McCain … John McCain (!) has not balls actually amuses me to no end.
Because there is simply no way any of these people have stared death in the face and kept the faith and risen to fight again in the manner of John McCain.
A fair number of the MDS commenters come from this fine school of conservative thought:
http://miafacts.org/mccain.htm
scumbags
funky chicken on October 8, 2008 at 10:20 AM
Mccain did a great job and won big time last night.
Mccain came out miles ahead on the economy and Barack Hussein was just speechless and shocked by Mccain’s plan..he looked like an idiot who didn’t know what to say or do.
Believe me that everyone who is worried about the economy knew that the choice for the next president is obvious because of this debate.
SaintOlaf on October 8, 2008 at 10:22 AM
Steve Z on October 8, 2008 at 9:07 AM
wow, that was a great comment. thanks for putting in all that work
I wonder if Ed might grant you an honorary headline for that?
funky chicken on October 8, 2008 at 10:22 AM
Steve, the only thing I would add to your analysis is that if in option two, a bank buys the loan, it may very well be for more than the principal set at the ‘rebuy’ so the treasury would probably be out less than the $400K.
Vashta.Nerada on October 8, 2008 at 10:27 AM
I don’t care if they were “lured” or not. Just like the corporate bailout plan, your plan rewards those who don’t deserve it. Let them move back into an apartment like we did when we screwed up and start over. The responsible homeowners should be rewarded not the irresponsible ones.
We bought what we could afford and have been paying our mortgage while watching the value of our home plummet. We have all the values a bank wants. We only lack one thing. Our house ain’t worth crap anymore. If the government gave us the difference, we could sell it and buy a new home, fill it up with stuff and the right people would get the economy moving again.
Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 10:34 AM
And another thing, Steve Z, Life’s tough. Deal with it.
When we lived in CA, we bought a home and was “lured” into a home equity loan when the value of the home went up. When we went to sell, prices had falllen and it cost us $20,000 to sell the home. We lived with my mother-in-law for a year recovering and buying another home. We never made that mistake again (the home equity loan, not the mother-in-law part).
I like my plan better. Gets the economy moving, the govt gives me money it took from me by getting us into this mess (consider it reparations), and someone gets to but my old house because they also have good credit and only lack home value for the house they are selling.
Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Exactly. One of my dear friends, although I didn’t have the heart to call her out on it, was complaining how they just barely made it each month, and in the same conversation, complained about the cost of her son playing hockey and how they could barely afford it, but by god that kid was gonna play hockey. Umm……why not just say no? My dad had no problem back in the 80’s when he was laid off saying no. Ironically that is why I didn’t play hockey. Too expensive. In fact I had to quit track in 9th grade for that reason also, too much in gas runnng me back and forth. I see to many households failing, not because of bad mortgages, but because their brats need a 300 dollar Iphone, no offense Allah :)
gator70 on October 8, 2008 at 10:46 AM
SNORE … It was a huge downer, I bet half or more tuned out before halftime.
Bad format, bad moderator, bad questions. What’s there not to like.
tarpon on October 8, 2008 at 10:47 AM
only in your mind, Ed.
I read a couple of insta-polls conducted by the networks that seemed to suggest that Obama came out ahead. Not by much as far as I’m concerned. I don’t think the polls were rigged. I don’t think they mean all that much, either. Time will tell. People watched the debate and made up their own minds. For the most part, people make up their own minds.
The debates are an oportunity for the candidates to speak directly to the American people in a side-by-side comparison. That, more than anything else is what Americans base their personal decisions on.
John McCain is running and will run an aggressively negative campaign for one simple reason; he has nothing positive to say that’s going to reach out and touch.
He’s going to be negative because the rest of his warmed-over rhetoric is fundamentally little different from the flawed policy of the current administration in its methodology and its objectives.
He’s going to be negative because he needs to shift the focus away from his erratic and politically motivated stunts over the past month.
He’s going to be negative to negate the openly expressed doubts by comedians and conservative pundits alike about his choice of running mates.
And most importantly, he’s going to be negative because that’s who he is. He’s not a maverick, he’s a back-biting, ornery old coot.
sashal on October 8, 2008 at 10:48 AM
I have a feeling there is a shift taking place…look at the polls…they are closing. At a time when, as Rush says, the pollsters want to get it right, they are tightening. Zogby, Hotline are under 2…Battleground closed to 3, rasmussen went from +8 to plus +6…that means the recent round of polling was 49-47 Obama.
The race always tightens, but I think that Palin is making a difference. Her daily attacks are resonating and I think making voters rethink Obama. McCain doesn’t need the knockout everyone believes he needs…he just needs a bunch of singles…Obama is just trying to make it across the finish line. It’s going to be close.
And if McCain pulls it out, there is only one reason: Sarah Palin.
joepub on October 8, 2008 at 10:50 AM
This was strong of McCain, I thought.
chiefeditor on October 8, 2008 at 10:54 AM
Somebody give MCcain a testosterone injection for god sakes, or a B12 shot, and fix his damn sleeves. He isn’t impressing anyone and we’re gonna lose because we picked the wrong freakin guy in my opinion, but then again neither candidate is impressive enough to be worthy of such as office.
johnnyU on October 8, 2008 at 10:55 AM
While we’re on the subject of socialism, by the way, it seems quite possible that Barack Obama is or was of the real capital S variety.
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/10/07/obama-is-hiding-a-radical-past/#more-5300
It was linked at the Corner.
CK MacLeod on October 8, 2008 at 11:01 AM
Has anyone else noticed that sometimes McCain looks like a turtle?
blatantblue on October 8, 2008 at 11:03 AM
You do understand that by ‘government’, you mean me. In other words, I have to give you money under threat of jail, because the value of your house went down. No thanks. I’m willing to subsidize people who want to try and stay in their house, because we need to slowly pull out of the housing mess, which will allow other markets to pull out. I’m not willing to hand over money to you because you want to bail.
Vashta.Nerada on October 8, 2008 at 11:05 AM
So does my dad. He’s been doing the turtle thing for a few years now. He’s 87. I think at their age the vertebrae have shrunk to the point that the head starts to sink into your shoulders. Good catch, though! (wink) And something to look forward to when you reach that age!
(Although, with McCain, he could just be constantly ducking the incoming hatred from the Left!)
Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 11:09 AM
I know if Obama were to try and get a job requiring a security clearance he’d not get it due to his associations of the past, and here we are with him on the ballot? If he makes it, and I say if, he’ll be in the dark on more things than he is right now.
johnnyU on October 8, 2008 at 11:13 AM
Well, when I was a kid… Oh no! I’m starting to sound like my parents! ;-)
My wife has a friend at work that can’t afford a hair cut, but she can smoke a pack of cigarettes every day and her husband can’t hold a job but he can smoke a half-dozen cigars every day and (obviously) never misses a meal.
We live in a world where there are few consequences to our actions. If we buy half our groceries on a daily basis at the convenience store, no one counsels us to change those habits. (As I sit here eating a package of Hostess Cup Cakes.)
Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 11:15 AM
I’m pissed.
McCain had e-v-e-r-y opportunity to nail Obama’s backside to the wall and he blew it.
His pussy footn’ softball tactics along with his inability to complete a sentence with out fumbling words is inexcusable.
I thought I was watching a rerun of the last debate,, if that’s what you want to call it.
True Conservatism is DEAD!!
$300 Billion to buy home loans?? WTF!??
John, next time gargle with some Geritol before you go on TV.
The McCain camp need to hit Obama on his questionable associations and question the hidden list of items.
1. Occidental College records — Not released
2. Columbia College records — Not released
3. Columbia Thesis paper — ‘not available’
4. Harvard College records — Not released
5. Selective Service Registration — Not released
6. Medical records — Not released
7. Illinois State Senate schedule — ‘not available’
8. Law practice client list — Not released
9. Certified Copy of original Birth certificate — Not released
10. Embossed, signed paper Certification of Live Birth — Not released
11. Harvard Law Review articles published — None
12. University of Chicago scholarly articles — None
13. His Record of baptism– Not released or ‘not available’
14. His Illinois State Senate records–’not available’
GForce on October 8, 2008 at 11:19 AM
This is an oxymoron. The problem is that they never “grow up” – they just get bigger. Grownup is not a synonym for adult; rather it’s an either/or proposition.
platypus on October 8, 2008 at 11:34 AM
My dad said the same thing when Carter was elected.
Now there’s two ways to look at that:
On the bad side, we damn well almost didn’t make it. Nothing improved for four years, and Iran held America hostage. The Russian bear appeared as strong as ever.
On the good side, we learned the lesson in four years, and elected Reagan who restored our sense of personal pride and responsibility. It lasted a helluva long time, with the recession of 1987 just a mere bump in the road, and the Clinton years benefiting as well.
Just hope we make it this time. McCain really let me down last night.
connertown on October 8, 2008 at 11:46 AM
I hope you post and repost that list in every appropriate thread for the next four weeks.
RushBaby on October 8, 2008 at 11:47 AM
I actually was making a similar if less refined arguement last night. I think the McCain plan is what has to happen.
But the down side: McCain needs to get this financial mess and his association with it to a back burner. As long as people connect him with this in anyway he loses the election.
So I hope by all means this gets through congress but McCain is likely to get more blame and less credit the more he tries to help. And he risks alienateing many freemarketers who refuse to see the disaster looming. They only see the fix as disaster, which it is but a lessor one.
petunia on October 8, 2008 at 11:48 AM
No, I’m stupid. I don’t realize that the goverment uses OUR tax money to do thse things. Give me a break.
So why should these “people” benefit from poor choices by having the value of their mortgages renegotiated? If they want to renegotiate the terms (say, ARM to FIXED) directly with the bank that’s fine with me. But NOT REDUCE the balance of their mortgage with MY TAXES! That is wrong and unconstitutional!
That is totally unfair to me who suffered and cannot sell my home and buy a new one (that is not bailing BTW) because the value of my home is half what it should be because of the very same people you wish to subsidize. Will the govt renegotiate MY mortgage!? If so, where do I sign up!?
“Just because the value of my house went down?” How do you think it went down!? Because of the people you want to subsidize! They are not ALL victims, believe me. There was just as much predatory borrowing as their was lending, if not down right fraud. Not to mention the millions of mortgages fraudulently obtained by illegals.
“Slowly pull out of the housing mess.” Put these losers back in apts where they belong. Let me sell my house so I can buy another house and fill it with durable goods. I sell my house to someone else who has good credit and actually DESERVES fair value for their home, and so on. The houses left over will be reasonably-priced and the apt dwellers can get back into the market by buying homes they can actually afford. THAT will pull us out of the housing mess. The economy heats up over a wide range of areas. If the govt were to give me that money, at least it would be spent wisely.
The majority of Americans should start small and spend their lifetimes building up the value of their homes by buying and selling better and better homes and building the equity in it. And then if they wish, empty nesters can then start to downsize and build up their savings for retirement. We need to get back to doing things the way (and I can’t believe I’m typing this) our parents used to do it! It worked for a reason.
But no, you want to subsidize people who screwed up so they can stay in their homes, pay less than I am paying and go skipping back to Starbucks and their cafe lattes, denying the fact that they made a mistake in the first place.
So here’s the deal. I’ll forget my plan to have YOU give ME your taxes if YOU forget subsidizing those who don’t deserve it with MY TAXES. Which BTW was my point in my original post which seems to have gone over your head.
You want to send someone your own money, fine. But DON’T COMMIT MY MONEY! LET THE FREE MARKET WORK! DON’T INTERFERE USING MY TAXES!
Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 11:49 AM
BTW, Vashta. McCain sayst Wall Street caused the value of these VICTIMS to go down. That is so totally wrong. THEY ARE NOT VICTIMS of WALL STREET like McCain likes to portray! They signed the papers just like I did. They suffer the consequences just like I do.
Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 11:54 AM
I stand corrected.
Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Many of us are disappointed that McCain did not hit a home run last night, but I think we need some perspective. Obama supporters should be disappointed, too. One of the key things that Obama has been trying to do is paint McCain as an angry, volatile man. He has not succeeded in doing this, despite buckets of help from the media shills. A dull debate (like last night’s) is not a disaster — in some ways it helps McCain. (Palin did a great job last week in what was a more interesting debate with very high ratings, but most of the polls show that Biden “won.”)
It would have been disastrous if McCain had been too aggressive last night and wandered too far off topic to take swings at Obama. The MSM would use that to echo the meme that McCain is too “angry” to be president.
It’s clear that Obama will lie his way through these debates or claim that he agrees with McCain on issues where he has no plan. Obama is trying to pretend to be a moderate. McCain needs to rattle Obama, get him to lose his cool, and come up with a couple of more surprises of bold ideas that Obama will not have a counter idea for. In that sense, the home mortgage buyout plan Mac proposed last night was effective (purely as a campaign stunt, not on its merits). McCain’s proposal eems to be the one “new idea” from either candidate that actually sifted through the media filter to this morning’s coverage. McCain needs a couple of more things like that. I would like to see him propose a comprehensive energy plan (including ANWR drilling), for one thing.
In terms of the attacks, they should be done by Palin, surrogates (like Rudy and Fred!), campaign ads, and the 527 ads. “Bitter gun clingers” still has a lot of legs to it, imho. And, even if McCain will not drop the Wright bomb, the 527s should. I wouldn’t mind seeing a non-denominational religious group do an ad comparing the church that Obama attended all those years with the ones (churches, synagogues) most Americans attend.
I’d also like to see a McCain ad that specifically counters Obama’s “centrist” ad on the economy (the one with the two-headed arrow showing Obama’s logo in the middle, implying that Obama is a centrist).
I would have preferred Fred! or Mitt or even Giuliani over McCain, but I have no doubts that McCain would be better for this country than Obama. He may be too cozy with “populists” and Democrats, but he did pick Palin. I do not think that was a stunt — he is capable of listening to conservatives.
Chins up, people! Nothing is accomplished by being defeatist in the home stretch.
Y-not on October 8, 2008 at 11:58 AM
SNL skit back on line
http://www.hulu.com/watch/38041/saturday-night-live-washington-approves-the-bailout.
Bullhead on October 8, 2008 at 11:59 AM
I give up. No one is ever going to take responsibility but responsible homeowners get the shaft yet again.
Free market is free market, regardless. It can’t be free market unless we get scared or things get bad and then the govt helps manipulate the market.
I thought the
bailoutrescue plan was going to free up credit and get things going. Now we have to rescue individual mortgages by reducing their balances with my tax money? Where does the interference end and is it ever given back? I think FDR and history has proven it never goes back to where it was.Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 12:06 PM
For all you “these poor people need their mortgage balance reduced” fans read this from Michelle Malkin.
Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 12:11 PM
Agreed. Mrs. Magoo has been an undecided. Her perception of the Obamas was the People Magazine perception because it was too early for her to really pay attention. But after actually watching and listening, she has picked up on:
McCain = keeping the country safe from our enemies
Obama = universal health care (if not immediately, eventually)
Two big issues with the Mrs. So I think I won’t have to cancel out her vote. Hey we’re in AZ – it’s not like her vote counted, right?
Mr_Magoo on October 8, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Both politicians can’t be trusted. The question is who do you think is lying less? Answer: McCain. In which case that makes him the winner.
apacalyps on October 8, 2008 at 12:58 PM
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