Hope and change: McCain within three among likely voters in new CBS poll
posted at 8:13 pm on October 6, 2008 by Allahpundit
Send to a Friend |
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
Who says I never give you good-ish news, eh?
In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.
The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.
In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.
Does a five-point pickup post-debate mean we’re witnessing a second round of Palinmania? Probably not:
Then again, it’s less important whether a plurality of all voters thinks she won than whether undecideds do. Did she peel any away? Note the trends among independents and Hillary voters (and white voters generally):
And this trend, too:
CBS notes that Obama’s numbers on the economy have dipped slightly, although why that would lead to him shedding Obama voters instead of just pushing indies towards McCain, I’m not sure. All theories welcome. In the meantime, NBC’s out with a new poll too showing The One up four points to lead by six, although this tidbit may explain why Team Maverick thinks there’s advantage in tying Obama to radicals: “The poll suggests that the first African-American to win a major party nomination could be vulnerable to race-based attacks tying him to unpopular black figures such as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, his former pastor and Al Sharpton, an outspoken and controversial figure. Thirty-five percent of all voters — and 40% of white voters — said those connections bother them. This is absent any candidate or party pressing hard on those themes, something Republicans have hinted they may start to raise more aggressively in the campaign’s closing days.”
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: « 1 [2]
*raises glass*
Here’s to hoping you have to eat crow tomorrow nite!
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 8:59 PM
I heard sports talk radio today playing clips of Palin in debate. They are in an all out push to destroy her, which is reflecting in the numbers.
jp on October 6, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Internals, schmernals.
The last time I checked my internals I had crap in my bowels.
Don’t believe anything until the elections over.
mylegsareswollen on October 6, 2008 at 9:00 PM
CapedConservative on October 6, 2008 at 8:55 PM
Megadittos!
IrishEi on October 6, 2008 at 9:00 PM
And don’t forget a scope for the rifle! Make every shot count!
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 9:00 PM
Deja Vu. Jimmy Carter all over again.
(a) Stock market will be in the toilet for years.
(b) High inflation.
(c) AK-47 wielding bearded unwashed bums will pee on the American flag and the Euroweenies will cheer.
(d) I dread the return of disco, trucker movies, and streaking songs.
But I guess it must be tolerated.
SunSword on October 6, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Let me explain what empirical means;
“Verifiable or provable by means of observation or experiment”
What does a poll mean?
“A survey of the public or of a sample of public opinion to acquire information”
In other words my dictionary challenged friend you have no proof, just a poll that you happen to agree with.
You believe this - it is neither empirical evidence nor a poll.
Bradky on October 6, 2008 at 9:01 PM
I’m trying to be optimistic after today. Don’t ruin by buzz!
lorien1973 on October 6, 2008 at 9:01 PM
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gmJpgsrR27lwSUQ24_WSSrU0W-JwD93L8H1O0
Low turnout for early voting in Ohio.
Mark1971 on October 6, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Dude. I hope.
Just two things I can’t shake. It’s a townhall, and unless BO goes Gore on us, I think those are harder to reduce to fistfights. Though if you go in with intent…
And in the primaries they planted the audience with a bunch of Hill supporters, so I don’t expect an even-handed presentation.
Spirit of 1776 on October 6, 2008 at 9:02 PM
You can tell by BRADKYs games that he hates the truth.
Jamson64 on October 6, 2008 at 9:03 PM
Thank you, MR. I have said that if Obama was a conservative and had the same principles of Reagan and was moral and honest as well - he’d get my vote.
However, they are light years apart - and that’s the reason I would never vote for Obama - his world view and policies and outright lies - they all leave me cold. And afraid.
tru2tx on October 6, 2008 at 9:03 PM
Sorry ;)
Spirit of 1776 on October 6, 2008 at 9:03 PM
Good observation. No disagreement.
Bradky on October 6, 2008 at 9:05 PM
Dem Corp poll, whoever they are,, just released it’s first poll since July,,, Obamam by 3.
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/10/dem_corps_obama_3.html
JellyToast on October 6, 2008 at 9:06 PM
I would not be surprised if McCain handed Barry’s ass to him in a beaten pulp, the MSM would say Barry won. >:(
mindhacker on October 6, 2008 at 9:06 PM
Out:
NBC News/Wall St. JrnlCNN
Gallup Tracking
Rasmussen Tracking
Hotline/FD Tracking
GW/Battleground Tracking
In:
CBS News
MB4 on October 6, 2008 at 9:07 PM
No I search for truth and value objectivity - I don’t care for myopic tools though.
Bradky on October 6, 2008 at 9:07 PM
Latest Hotline poll (yeah, okay I’m reaching).
Nut graf:
The economy?
SteveMG on October 6, 2008 at 9:07 PM
LOL So true so true!
Bradky on October 6, 2008 at 9:08 PM
Well.. one of two things is happening.
Either the MSM is trying to “light a fire” (reestablish an underdog image) or that 6-8% “undecided” are beginning to show they were intimidated to oppose Obama.
One advantage McCain has is that his numbers are solid. His folks WILL vote. The percentage of “flakes” that won’t show up on election day for Obama will be a factor. Solution - polls that show “every vote is needed”.
Agrippa2k on October 6, 2008 at 9:08 PM
For those that believe McCain is incapable of a harsh attack directly against an opponent, I suggest you read the transcript between McCain and Cornyn in May 2007?. In this disagreement, Cornyn basically accused McCain of showing up at the last minute in an effort to take credit for immigration reform. McCain told him that was chickenshit. The debate heated up to the point that Senator McCain’s response to Cornyn was “F*ck you!”.
He can express opinions stronger than we’ve seen.
CC
CapedConservative on October 6, 2008 at 9:08 PM
I asked about Democracy Corp in another thread this morning. It is James Carville’s organization.
Mark1971 on October 6, 2008 at 9:08 PM
man I hope DJ Drummund is right in his analysis.
the MSM trying to depress GOP turnout could backfire, simply because of the fear of the ObamaMarxist setting in
jp on October 6, 2008 at 9:08 PM
Bradky sure. You are simply believe in polling when it fits ya.. You know it….I know it. Your Dem buddies are more likely to vote based on race…face it. Spin on. Your games don’t fly here.
Jamson64 on October 6, 2008 at 9:09 PM
And the irony is that CBS is Dan Rather’s old haunt.
MB4 on October 6, 2008 at 9:10 PM
Or worse, FDR
Count to 10 on October 6, 2008 at 9:11 PM
Is there any real chance that mccain will be polled the winner?
tomas on October 6, 2008 at 9:12 PM
Pfotenhauer. I can’t say why exactly, but she… moves me.
Have to caution the dogs of war, again, not to have unrealistic expectations of fireworks tomorrow night. The candidates are more likely to compete over making the other guy seem like the killjoy negative campaigner. I do expect Mav to go after the Dems on Fannie & Freddie, in somewhat the same terms as in today’s speech, but townhall debates aren’t known for zingers and mixing it up. Plus he’s likely to revert to his well-practiced townhall methods and depend on them: If he scores going negative, it’ll much more likely be either on substance or on counterpunch.
But if it the mutual contempt and loathing explodes into a Jerry Springer chair fight on Fannie, Freddie, Bill, and Jeremiah - I won’t mind. I’ll mind even less if Obama finally loses it like those overly controlled personalities sometimes do.
CK MacLeod on October 6, 2008 at 9:12 PM
Have any empirical data to back that up? Bet not. Poser.
What a joke.
Jamson64 on October 6, 2008 at 9:13 PM
And it, like CBS, has McCain behind by only 3, while all the others have McCain down by from 6 to 8. I suspect that Dan Rather and James Carville may be trying to pull something here.
MB4 on October 6, 2008 at 9:13 PM
So you think Stanford University, that great bastion of liberal slime, is a myopic tool?
B-b-b-bbut, but Angela Davis taught there! If Stanford says it, it has to be true!
/s
IrishEi on October 6, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Actual numbers in each party don’t matter. It’s only the Democrat racists that represent a loss of votes for Obama.
CC
CapedConservative on October 6, 2008 at 9:15 PM
you know, if Obama was really up. Why would he be going to such desperate extremes like playing the Keating 5 card?
jp on October 6, 2008 at 9:15 PM
DJ Drummond is an old big time shannesty shill.
MB4 on October 6, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Trying to set a back fire against Ayers and the rest.
He knows it could hurt him. All he has is his image.
Count to 10 on October 6, 2008 at 9:20 PM
If the polls are good, I’m all over them, if they’re bad, they’re bogus. Hey as long as they manipulate the percentages of Dems, Reps and Indies, it doesn’t matter. McCain has an uphill battle, but hey he survived the North Vietnamese, and Obama ain’t nothing he can’t beat.
hestrold on October 6, 2008 at 9:23 PM
I’m incensed that attacking The One on Wright is “race-based”.
No wonder folks think polls are biased.
redneck hippie on October 6, 2008 at 9:24 PM
Thanks AP, I needed that
I am not seeing a landslide against McCain in my Democrat town. The blacks are in the bag. The rest are static and a huge bunch would rather see anyone but Obbie as their leader.
Because BO’s background is creepy. It makes people uncomfortable. The radical part sucks. I hear it all the time. That guy was raised ____. His preacher ____. No way am I voting an avowed ____ as President. He hates the flag. The complaints are not about BO being a Democrat or a black, it is about his background. Which sucks
I do not hear the BO gun position discussed. However today I recieved a great mailing from the NRA about BO lies on gun ownership. This is going to make a difference in Taylor
from the NRA mailing “Obama Can’t Run From His Radical Record”
- endorsed a complete ban on hadgun ownership (9-9-96)
- voted to ban firearms in the home - even for self-protection (3-25-04)
- supported increasing gun and ammo taxes by 500% (12-13-99)
People have some standards for the Presidency and the BO background is beyond the standard and into an area of doubt about him being on the side of America
People hate the choices this year. Except for some Palin converts it is an unpleasant experience right when we all need to feel good about something
entagor on October 6, 2008 at 9:24 PM
Whoa, whoa, WHOA! “Race-based attacks?” Who’s making “race-based attacks?” William Ayers is as white as snow! Who’s writing these poll questions? It sounds like push-polling!
L.N. Smithee on October 6, 2008 at 9:27 PM
Obama’s base is blacks (12% of the population) and youths who have never shown in big numbers election day.
SouthernGent on October 6, 2008 at 9:31 PM
DJ Drummond is an old big time shannesty shill.
MB4 on October 6, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Has he ever recovered from his total meltdown over Harriet Miers? The poor guy needed a straight-jacket at one time.
John Doe on October 6, 2008 at 9:38 PM
Can Cindy McCain use her beer distributorship to underwrite a nationwide promotion that that will have the college kids stinking drunk on election day?
(Sarah wink)
BuckeyeSam on October 6, 2008 at 9:39 PM
Let me explain what empirical means;“Verifiable or provable by means of observation or experiment” What does a poll mean? “A survey of the public or of a sample of public opinion to acquire information.”
You confuse “empirical” with “anecdotal.” Perhaps if you contact Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby as well as the Stanford researchers, they can explain the difference to you.
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 9:41 PM
Here’s one: These polls are horsecrap.
Jim Treacher on October 6, 2008 at 9:41 PM
Sure - when he is sufficiently far ahead that it becomes impossible to fudge the numbers.
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 9:44 PM
Obama up 2 to 1 on Intrade
jp on October 6, 2008 at 9:48 PM
I have never followed polls closely, and don’t understand them. Because my mind is always made up very early in these races, I can’t imagine how a poll like this exists, and it leads me to suspect either gross incompetence by the pollster, or dishonest efforts.
These results are from 10-3 to 10-5, over 10-1. So, in three to five days a month before the election, we are to believe that liberal voters increased their support for Obama by 6%, while conservatives dropped by 5%, from 12% to 7%.
That makes no sense. There aren’t that many stupid people.
Are there?
Jaibones on October 6, 2008 at 9:53 PM
Good. Works for me.
Jaibones on October 6, 2008 at 9:55 PM
How are our military men and women polling?
McCain 68
Obama 23
Conservative_SAHM on October 6, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Uh-oh! A couple of extra pounds of colon spackle or paste, no? Try these crystals that dissolve anywhere.
Especially effective on brain cells…
Del Dolemonte on October 6, 2008 at 10:13 PM
Well someone in the McCain camp is chipper. Carly Fiorina is back on the air. She was just on Greta. Maybe their internals are moving up. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
SouthernGent on October 6, 2008 at 10:21 PM
He got the boot from Polipundit as a bloger.
Ahter he got the boot he would come back and comment whiny drivel like this -
I have read Malkin’s stuff for a long time and in detail. It’s not constructive, it’s not reasonable, and it treats millions of people as nondescript parcels of matter to be disposed of, which is impractical and frankly insulting. Just because I don’t want millions of illegals to come here, does not mean that they don’t count as people.
Posted by: DJ Drummond at May 20, 2007 03:42 PM
MB4 on October 6, 2008 at 10:22 PM
This might be a little off topic.
Concering the dodgy donations Obama has been receiving….his campaign says they refund these as quickly as they’re identified, but I’d still like to know if Mr. “Hbkjb, jkbkj” ever cashed his refund check for 7 thousand dollars. Ditto for “Will Good”, and all those others.
DngrMse on October 6, 2008 at 10:24 PM
God bless you AP!!! Nice news to sleep on :)
Richard Romano on October 6, 2008 at 11:06 PM
My theory on the roller-coaster poll numbers is that, until now, the swing voters haven’t really understood Subprimageddon. Put yourself in the shoes of an undecided voter whose information mostly comes from watching CNN Headline News in a sports bar, with the sound off. They only know that something really bad happened, the government had to spend a lot of money to fix it, and it happened while Bush was president. Add in the general tendency to link Wall Street problems with the Republicans, programmed by several generations of diligent media effort, and it’s a little surprising the poll swing was only six to eight points.
I suspect some of the Undecideds were reassured by Obama’s debate performance, too. They’d been hearing a quietly building, below-the-media-radar background narrative that Obama was a dangerous novice, hard to take seriously as a candidate. He got through the debate without stuttering like a cranky lawnmower engine, bursting into tears, or screaming “God damn America!” That bought him a measure of credibility with the casual viewer. In the long run, I think the sad “I have a bracelet, too, John” moment is going to hurt him, but short-term, he did okay, and okay was all he needed to be, at that moment.
I get the sense Palin got a lot out of her debate, but the short-term reaction of the undecideds is giving Biden good numbers in some of these polls. The people who watched the debate don’t realize how many lies, or borderline insane statements, he made. They just saw a senatorial old guy say some terrible things about McCain, and some good things about Obama, and then the press spent a couple of days telling them Biden won. None of the B.S. got called. (Could you imagine the headlines and Sunday show topics over the weekend if Palin had coughed up 22 verifiable lies during the debate?) In the long run, the veep debate will favor Palin because it detonated the silly caricatures being made of her, and she connected with people - they’ll remember the warm glow longer than they’ll dwell on Biden lying about McCain’s health care proposals.
But after all of the above, Obama is still up by only a few points, with some wilder swings in particular areas of particular states. I think the movement toward McCain in today’s polls means they’re starting to process the subprime crisis, really think about it, and there is no way the media can totally bury Democrat culpability. The media will cover this story if McCain forces them to… and he can, just by talking about it, and by being tough in the debate tomorrow night.
Swing voters have not, until now, had the slightest idea who Barney Frank is. That’s been changing over the last few days, and nothing will drive them to McCain faster than a good, long look at Barney Frank. Most casual voters have no idea that this weird old socialist from a tiny state has so much power over the economy. They honestly think the President controls all that stuff. They will be absolutely stunned to learn who did this to them. If I could get the McCain camp’s ear, I would make that point to them, in the strongest possible terms. Force those videos of Frank, Dodd, Obama, and the rest of them defending subprime lending into the public consciousness. Get Joe Sixpack interested enough to ask his local and national journalists why they’ve never reported on this story before.
Look how much Palin has done just by making her “palling around with terrorists” remark. The media stopped laughing when their viewers started asking what she was talking about. Wait until the media has to explain that the Democrats put a guy who claimed he didn’t know there was a gay prostitution ring running out of his basement in control of a trillion-dollar industry. Most of the average folks don’t know that story, either… but God and John McCain willing, they will by this Friday.
Doctor Zero on October 6, 2008 at 11:09 PM
Sigh…the definition for you my clueless pal.
From
“Based on casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis”
Proof does not come from anecdotal evidence. From here on out you will be charged for the tutoring.
Bradky on October 6, 2008 at 11:10 PM
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 9:41 PM
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/anecdotal
Bradky on October 6, 2008 at 11:11 PM
I BELIEVE THIS POLL AND ONLY THIS POLL AND THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING, BEGGINING, NO I THINK ITS BEGINNING, OR IS IT IT’S? WHATEVER! I WILL ONLY READ THIS POST FROM NOW UNTIL ELECTION DAY!
franklinstein on October 6, 2008 at 11:22 PM
AWESOMELY AWESOME!
franklinstein on October 6, 2008 at 11:23 PM
Excellent post, Doctor Zero, at 11:09 PM. I think you are right.
What would help would be wide distribution and viewing of John McCain’s campaign speech today, He gave it to the Democrats and Obama. Keep that up, and you are going to see a shift back to John McCain.
McCain is going to win. He has been doing it for almost two years now. He is going to do what it takes. He knows what is at stake for the country.
Phil Byler on October 6, 2008 at 11:36 PM
I told ya. Gov.Palin closed the gap for the second time. With Mccain finally talking about Fannie/Freddie and all the vile stuff about Obanma and Democrats we will close the gap and surge ahead. Now Mccain has to destroy that stuttering foolin the next two debates. It’s not enough if Mccain makes substantive points. Mccain should hit Obama hard so that Obama doesn’t have any answers left.
promachus on October 6, 2008 at 11:58 PM
Allah, if we win no matter how what polls suggest, we will have won because of Gov.Palin. Mccain would have helped but it’s Gov. who’s winning this thing.
promachus on October 7, 2008 at 12:00 AM
ABout Palin numbers, is there a kind of reverse Bradley Effect meant for women, particularly non-elite, pro-life women? Maybe people don’t want to admit how much they like her but want to vote for the ticket because Sarah is on it.
promachus on October 7, 2008 at 12:21 AM
Why do we pay attention to these polls? They are always wrong in the end. Remember when both Algor and Kerry were a shoe-in right up until the bitter end? This one is going to be just as close regardless of who the winner is. You aint gonna know till the smoke clears.
gator70 on October 7, 2008 at 8:11 AM
Comment pages: « 1 [2]