Hope and change: McCain within three among likely voters in new CBS poll
posted at 8:13 pm on October 6, 2008 by Allahpundit
Who says I never give you good-ish news, eh?
In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.
The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.
In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.
Does a five-point pickup post-debate mean we’re witnessing a second round of Palinmania? Probably not:
Then again, it’s less important whether a plurality of all voters thinks she won than whether undecideds do. Did she peel any away? Note the trends among independents and Hillary voters (and white voters generally):
And this trend, too:
CBS notes that Obama’s numbers on the economy have dipped slightly, although why that would lead to him shedding Obama voters instead of just pushing indies towards McCain, I’m not sure. All theories welcome. In the meantime, NBC’s out with a new poll too showing The One up four points to lead by six, although this tidbit may explain why Team Maverick thinks there’s advantage in tying Obama to radicals: “The poll suggests that the first African-American to win a major party nomination could be vulnerable to race-based attacks tying him to unpopular black figures such as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, his former pastor and Al Sharpton, an outspoken and controversial figure. Thirty-five percent of all voters — and 40% of white voters — said those connections bother them. This is absent any candidate or party pressing hard on those themes, something Republicans have hinted they may start to raise more aggressively in the campaign’s closing days.”
Blowback
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Well that was a fast response to McCain goin’ negative…
wait…er… are you manipulating Allah?! ;)
Skywise on October 6, 2008 at 8:15 PM
PRAISE THE LORD AND PASS THE AMMUNITION!
reliapundit on October 6, 2008 at 8:16 PM
Yeah, but we know it’s painful for you to do so. It’s a good hurt, Allah.
warrenmr on October 6, 2008 at 8:17 PM
Allah I think you are obsessed with polls.
upinak on October 6, 2008 at 8:18 PM
The “likely voters” polls are the only ones worth looking at.
jgapinoy on October 6, 2008 at 8:18 PM
Allahpundit. Please listen to Tammy Bruce’s interview of Megan McCain today. Miss McCain discussed polls, and while she didn’t discount them completely, she did talk about how it’s very important to not watch them obsessively every day. I believe she said it would make a person crazy.
Now, as a person with an advanced degree in a real science, I need to also assure you that political polls are only a step up in seriousness from those silly Coke vs Pepsi taste tests that you used to see in grocery stores years ago.
That said, I salute the polling companies on their excellent capitalistic achievements and hope they have many lucrative years ahead of them.
funky chicken on October 6, 2008 at 8:19 PM
Negative works every time. I hope they keep Obama on the defensive. Scary times people.
manfriend on October 6, 2008 at 8:19 PM
Stats are just a part of it all. The polls should be ignored, and everyone should just get out and vote. McCain will win this, and it will be a landslide.
Hening on October 6, 2008 at 8:20 PM
Hmm, in this poll McCain’s picked up 6 points among working class whites since 10/1. Independents moved to him too.
McCain’s got to show that Obama’s tax cut is a fraud.
If he can do that, on economic issues he’s in the game.
But then he has to come up with his own message.
Other than that, he’s just doing swell.
SteveMG on October 6, 2008 at 8:20 PM
Polls these days are like a spinning compass in the midst of the Bermuda Triangle.
Just get yourselves to the polls and take a couple of believers with you.
CliffHanger on October 6, 2008 at 8:20 PM
Funky, what is your degree in? If you don’t mind my asking!
upinak on October 6, 2008 at 8:22 PM
Polls left and right, up and down. Whatever.
I don’t think most of the American people are stupid enough to trust the economy in the hands of a backbencher in the Senate, who hardly spent a year.
jencab on October 6, 2008 at 8:22 PM
Today, McCain said that Obama promised a tax cut to 95% of people when he ran for Illinois Senator, then signed a huge tax increase instead. I expect him to make that point in the debate.
lorien1973 on October 6, 2008 at 8:23 PM
I remember Dick Morris saying, the VP debate (or any important debate) won’t be reflected in the polls for a few days. Most people aren’t confident enough to trust their own first impression. They like to hear how other people reacted to it. So if the consensus judgment is she did well, then they’ll trust that and polls will reflect it then.
RBMN on October 6, 2008 at 8:23 PM
Denver post has McCain surging and Obama dropping,,, now dead even,,, 44-44 with 8% undecided!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2099035/posts
JellyToast on October 6, 2008 at 8:23 PM
Allahpundit you missed your calling. You would make a great CIA interrogator. Offer despair and gloom until the prisoner is on the brink… then offer hope n change and the prisoner revives only to be …… arrrgh!
If you are a Steven King fan and finished the Dark Tower series you will appreciate the above a little more.
Bradky on October 6, 2008 at 8:24 PM
For the record, you’ve never heard this from me.
Good news indeed….Very interesting today listening to the left wing media cringing while claiming Mac’s “going negative” spells doom for the campaign. Too bad that McCain is the one who has to vet this empty suit, when the media took a pass.
Rovin on October 6, 2008 at 8:24 PM
That’s a Colorado poll above,,
JellyToast on October 6, 2008 at 8:24 PM
Wow. Between the CBS poll and the CBS “finding more fishy Obama supporters story” I may one day watch a CBS show again. But I doubt it. I saw that loser Harry Smith ripping Nancy, “Not even going to try and spell her last name” for the McCain campaign “daring” to bring up the Ayers connection. It’s going to get comical watching the MSM try to smother all the dirt for the next 30 days.
anniekc on October 6, 2008 at 8:24 PM
remember the Exit Polls from 2004……President Kerry is no where to be found these days!
SDarchitect on October 6, 2008 at 8:24 PM
The exit polls declared John Kerry the winner in 2004 and we see how that worked out. Wait…. this is a “good poll”?
I take polls as entertainment and pretty bad entertainment at that.
carbon_footprint on October 6, 2008 at 8:24 PM
McCain needs one of those moments in the debate tomorrow like when The One was on OReily and just looked at Bill and said “What can I tell ya?” about his numerous shady pals.
Vigilante on October 6, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Great architectural minds think alike.
carbon_footprint on October 6, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Who posted this and what did you do with AP?
SteveMG on October 6, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Hm, when was the last sighting of the humpbot?
Spirit of 1776 on October 6, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Let’s take a poll on that. :)
backwoods conservative on October 6, 2008 at 8:26 PM
We’re up! We’re down! We’re leading! We’re losing! Amerpundit’s getting a freaking migraine!
amerpundit on October 6, 2008 at 8:26 PM
I don’t get that one poll has Obomba up by double digits and this one almost a tie. Somebodies lying!
Mercy4Me on October 6, 2008 at 8:26 PM
What is the weighting? The last presidential election the turnout was even, about 37 percent each. Are polls being weighted to recent historical turnout? Why are the Dems always weighted heavier?
Check out this post by DJ Drummond, he does his own weighting to try and gauge where we currently stand in the polls.
http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com/2008/10/secret-poll-october-1-edition.html
True_King on October 6, 2008 at 8:27 PM
I heard that too… we need more of that..
If Team McCain wants Palin’s numbers to go up they should give her some new policy to tout that fits her narrative… give her something come on…
ninjapirate on October 6, 2008 at 8:27 PM
It’s not a race-based attack to tie him to people that happen to be black that he has associated with.
A race based attack would be if he’d never met the Reverend Wright and someone said, “Look what this black preacher said. Look! Obama’s black too!!! He probably feels the same was as this preacher because…well…you know….they’re both black!”
People are not unhappy with folks like Wright because they’re black. It’s because they are disgusting human beings.
JadeNYU on October 6, 2008 at 8:28 PM
Another board I visit (a non-political board) had a little poll up yesterday asking members who they would vote for if the election were held today. Now, bear in mind, this is a mixed board and there are a vast variety of women on there from all over the country, from all political viewpoints. McCain leads in that poll by one vote. I think this is a better indicator of what is going on in America. It will be a close election – much closer than what these online polls are saying.
Conservative_SAHM on October 6, 2008 at 8:28 PM
I want to know where were the polls 30 days out circa 2004? If I remember correctly, it was Kerry over Bush.
lsutiger on October 6, 2008 at 8:29 PM
I think the negative, “truths” about Obama will be very effective. Axelrod’s banking on the bad econmony to keep them up front, but I think everyone is figuring out that the economy isn’t going to get better no matter who’s the President. If McCain can continue to hammer the “One’s” complete incompetence in EVERYTHING else, he might have a chance.
anniekc on October 6, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Outlier.
McCain needs to score big in the next debates.
toliver on October 6, 2008 at 8:29 PM
The only thing she really knows is drilling. You’d think that she’d make that case in her trips to the SE, where there have been gas shortages.
McCain simply needs to be more nimble in its attacks. Obama can roll out a new speech in a day or so. McCain needs to get their act together there.
Today was was a good start for future talking points.
lorien1973 on October 6, 2008 at 8:30 PM
I’m looking forward to polls on Friday after the debate occurs and McCain’s belated counter-attacks on the Democrat’s responsibility in the Banking mess start to sink in. Ayers and Wright will start to take a toll again too.
This thing is going to be close, and McCain’s going to win. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Get ready to batten down the hatches if he pulls it off. The Obamunists are going to go berserk.
forest on October 6, 2008 at 8:30 PM
I like what Rudy said…”Republicans don’t win polls, we win elections!”
deedtrader on October 6, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Vigilante on October 6, 2008 at 8:25 PM
That’s the plan. And that’s what a lot of people seem to miss. Barack Obama has never been in a heated debate. He may just disintegrate under the barrage of hits McCain will land tomorrow. Or he may come off as a dangerous, unknown, untrustworthy, shady entity. But he brought this on himself by going there (Keating Five).
Cardiganfox on October 6, 2008 at 8:31 PM
upinak
biochemistry
funky chicken on October 6, 2008 at 8:31 PM
I’m frightened tomorrow’s debate is a “Town Hall” moderated by Tom Brokaw. Isn’t that basically a forum for “randomly picked citizens” to whine about everything including their pet dog’s limp and to be comforted by mama-guvment? I sure hope McCain learned from Frank Lunz’s “dial meters” that Palin’s numbers soared the highest when she talked about “personal responsibility”, among all the spectrum being polled that night.
Marcus on October 6, 2008 at 8:32 PM
I just clicked on an ad here for a PBS special on the candidates. The preview for McCain’s part only showed–& belabored the point ad nauseum–of his supposed begrudging endorsement of Bush in 2000. The BO part? All about how he’s a rising star, with the best aides, so devoted, & such a sense of humor.
=gag=
PBS: Our tax dollars at work.
jgapinoy on October 6, 2008 at 8:33 PM
It wouldn’t hurt McCain to bring up Obama’s soft-on-crime voting record in the Illinois Senate. Chicago has become Murder City USA thanks to idiot Democratic state legislators like Obama, who never met a gang-banger they didn’t want to give a break to. Is that the kind of “judgment” people want in the White House?
AZCoyote on October 6, 2008 at 8:34 PM
The more that J-Mac and Arctic Fox keep dragging skeletons out of Obama’s and the Democrats’ closets, the more the Drive-By media will be forced to focus the cameras on the bones.
It’s gonna be hard for the Drive-Bys to pretend that the Republicans are at fault for the Fanny-Freddie Crisis when J-Mac calls ‘em out in public and the RNC can offer proof of Democrat malfeasance in their own words on video.
Tomorrow nite, after J-Mac destroys Bambi in the debate, watch for a seismic shift in the polls over the following week.
Sure, the markets are tanking. But now the truth is starting to come out: it was the fault of the Democrats and Bambi was in on the take. There is no way he can wriggle out of this. His candidacy is doomed.
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Remember the pony-tailed guy in Richmond who cried out for a President who would be our Daddy-in-Chief, & Clinton wholeheartedly agreed with him? Ewww.
jgapinoy on October 6, 2008 at 8:35 PM
OT: the ‘body language expert’ on O’Reilly hates Palin.
carbon_footprint on October 6, 2008 at 8:35 PM
Okay, from now on it’s “Ayers, Ayers, Ayers. God Damn America, God Damn America, God Damn America” until November.
malan89 on October 6, 2008 at 8:35 PM
If a CBS poll at this stage is showing a tightening, the Obama campaign must have internal numbers making them go batshit.
CC
CapedConservative on October 6, 2008 at 8:35 PM
I personally believe there is a coorelation between women who hate Palin and woment who buy batteries by the case…
CC
CapedConservative on October 6, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Do these factor in the VP debate or will those be tomorrow’s?
Spirit of 1776 on October 6, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Damn right. Most of us are still paying our mortgages, and this “borrowers as the victims” thing is wearing real thin. Especially with a trillion dollars walking out the door.
forest on October 6, 2008 at 8:37 PM
All the more reason to make sure your rifle has a good scope.
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Allah sits high atop his ivory tower watching we huddled masses reacting with the ebb and flow of his poll threads. If we get too down, he gives us some good news, if we get too up he does a buzz kill.
Allah is like a evil child with a magnifying glass burning the eyes out of grasshoppers before dissecting them, one piece at a time.
He IS God!
lol
csdeven on October 6, 2008 at 8:39 PM
Michelle Obama is up Louis Farrakahn’s ass.
Can’t wait till Uncle Louie visits the White House.
mylegsareswollen on October 6, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Here we go again with the Mad Max fantasies. Better be careful when you get a bead on them – that WII of yours doesn’t really fire real lead…
Bradky on October 6, 2008 at 8:40 PM
If pony-tailed guy shows up tomorrow looking for Daddy-in-Chief (“We’re you’re children!” I believe he said) and McCain doesn’t smack him then we are, indeed, screwed.
Marcus on October 6, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Agreed. They hadn’t counted on McCain doing what he did today. It’s a full out nuclear response and they have neither a defense nor the ability to respond in kind.
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Who says? I do. I love ya Allah, but you’re a complete tool for the pollsters whether they be good or ill.
Jim-Rose on October 6, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Exactly my thought! These women watch too much TV and thus the remote control batteries wear out.
/
carbon_footprint on October 6, 2008 at 8:40 PM
I agree and had McCain come out and opposed the bailout, he would be 10 points ahead right now. We lost another 400 points on wall street today.
csdeven on October 6, 2008 at 8:40 PM
So McCain is winning Independents by 44-39, and getting more Democrats (10%) than Obama gets Republicans (7%), and McCain is behind in the overall vote. What does that tell us about the sample they used?
A little bias toward the Dems, maybe?
Steve Z on October 6, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Bradley effect.
I keep that in my mind as the days wind down. People are saying one thing and meaning another.
I know that’s racist, but ask me if I care.
tru2tx on October 6, 2008 at 8:41 PM
Yep. But that doesn’t just mean the campaign. People have to spread the word to others, as well.
amerpundit on October 6, 2008 at 8:41 PM
I don’t see this as people moving toward McCain. I see it as moving AWAY from Obama as they learn more about him.
Too many were swept up in the Hopenchange euphoria, and are just now settling down to pay attention to the real issues and the real candidates.
And a global financial meltdown can certainly help focus the mind…
IrishEi on October 6, 2008 at 8:41 PM
I discount this weekend polls as I have the others; even moreso for appearigto be an outlier. The RCP avg is O+6.2 — I would peg it slightly tighter, accounting for weekend polling. Tough, but doable in the last month.
Karl on October 6, 2008 at 8:41 PM
*channeling Sean Connery*
Not a big fan of firearms, are you Trebek?
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 8:41 PM
Didn’t mean to misquote pony-tail guy.
Marcus on October 6, 2008 at 8:42 PM
There are many voters out there who will not vote for a black man under any circumstances. Most of them are Democrats – theirs is the party of racism.
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 8:43 PM
We all need some good news tonight!!My dividends are disappearing….:(
beachkatie on October 6, 2008 at 8:43 PM
Oh, and people counting on the Bradley Effect should be aware that two studies of it can’t find a case of it since 1996. Might this Presidential contest be differnt? Maybe. Would I make it my security blanket. Nope.
Karl on October 6, 2008 at 8:43 PM
She’s a big lib. She had a hard time criticizing Rosie O’Donnell. Sheesh.
IrishEi on October 6, 2008 at 8:44 PM
That’s interesting Karl, and keep in mind that Obama frequently polled higher in the primaries. The New Hampshire primary sticks in my mind.
carbon_footprint on October 6, 2008 at 8:46 PM
+1
Rovin on October 6, 2008 at 8:47 PM
And of course you can provide the empirical data that supports this?
And save the standard bbbut bbut Robert Byrd as your proof. I don’t think you are likely to find any heavier numbers of racists in either party – in other words it is about the same in both.
Bradky on October 6, 2008 at 8:47 PM
It’s worth noting that tonight on Brit Hume’s show, Juan Williams said that he believed the Bradley Effect would be at least 5% – and he based this on conversations with the Obama campaign.
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 8:47 PM
Watching polls are like watching the stock market. You don’t get any information from any one poll; you get it from noticing trends. Unfortunately, one man’s trend is another’s bad sampling.
Stick to what you believe. If what you believe is right, the polls will catch up. Just ask Reagan.
spmat on October 6, 2008 at 8:47 PM
The Left lives and dies by identity politics. So just die, please.
Cicero43 on October 6, 2008 at 8:48 PM
She had a hard time criticizing Biden too. O’Reilly asked her why Biden’s forehead didn’t move during the entire debate. He asked if it could be Botox and her first reaction was she could not comment on that.
carbon_footprint on October 6, 2008 at 8:48 PM
We don’t have much time. McCain needs to keel haul Obama on every issue he has at his disposal. Sarah needs to keep up the body checks against the boards!!
Star20 on October 6, 2008 at 8:49 PM
Seriously, CBS polls people on a debate that they have not seen?
I would love to know what that sounds like.
Did you watch the VP debate last night? No?
Great, who do you think won?
And then to add to the stupidity we sit around and read these numbers as if they mean anything at all.
The only vote that counts is coming in November.
Dorvillian on October 6, 2008 at 8:49 PM
Not too long ago, a research organization conducted a poll of voters and discovered that a signficant percentage of Democrats would not vote for a black man, period. Republicans? According to the researchers, Republicans are more concerned with ideology than they are with race.
The research was actually posted on this site perhaps a month ago at most by Ed, most likely. If anyone out there can recall the post, please let me know.
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 8:50 PM
I believe it was a national story a week or two ago. Polling showing that a large percentage of Democrats would not vote for Obama based on his being black.
carbon_footprint on October 6, 2008 at 8:51 PM
I heard some were over the weekend that ugly women don’t like Palin, jealousy !!!Can’t believe they would vote for Obama….
beachkatie on October 6, 2008 at 8:51 PM
No kidding. Her wings weren’t believable? Heh, tell it to Drudge.
My turn to be negative. JM won’t destroy Obama in the debate. The best I can hope for is that he doesn’t undo or undermine the work done this weekend and today.
Probably so.
Spirit of 1776 on October 6, 2008 at 8:51 PM
Ah, beat me by a minute.
carbon_footprint on October 6, 2008 at 8:52 PM
There was a poll put out on it last week or the week before actually. It was the talk of cable news about how much of an impact it would have because it polled Democrats.
Spirit of 1776 on October 6, 2008 at 8:53 PM
Haha, what Manly & CF said.
Spirit of 1776 on October 6, 2008 at 8:53 PM
I’m only aware of this.
amerpundit on October 6, 2008 at 8:53 PM
Sorry, it was a crap poll when it was depressing, and it’s still a crap poll. I am not lowering my antidepressant dosage.
ParisParamus on October 6, 2008 at 8:54 PM
This is driving me crazy. I wonder if this is an outlier or if we will see similar results from other polls in days to come.
I hope McCain does well tomorrow night. I hope Obama does not. I hope he stutters and drools and forgets his name.
Terrye on October 6, 2008 at 8:54 PM
I think the important thing even if a loss in going to happen is to bring Obama down to size if possible…People have to realise who this guy is. If they still vote for him good looking out…but he still is floating on air.
tomas on October 6, 2008 at 8:55 PM
I suppose I would be one of those. Given the choice of a near Democrat and a Marxist, I will always vote for the near Democrat. As El Rushbo has always said: “This election will be about Obama”. That is a true statement. People will either vote FOR him or AGAINST him. I would suspect that most Republicans feel a stronger repulsion to Obama than they do attraction for McCain.
CC
CapedConservative on October 6, 2008 at 8:55 PM
Dems are the party of identity politics. They view everything through the prism of race or gender or some other identity issue. That is the only reason they nominated Obama.
Repubs couldn’t care less about race – what matters to us is ideology. Time and again many of the commenters here – myself included – have indicated that we have no problem voting for a black man for president as long as he is a stalwart conservative.
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 8:55 PM
BINGO! Thanks, Ameripundit!
ManlyRash on October 6, 2008 at 8:56 PM
again, this makes the Va. poll look ridiculous. If Obama was really up 12 in Va., he’d be up close to 20 nationally
jp on October 6, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Democrats are obsessed with two things: sex and race.
carbon_footprint on October 6, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Stay home election day and day after when McCain wins to keep an eye on your property!
JellyToast on October 6, 2008 at 8:58 PM
I think the even in both parties is reasonable. BUT, racist Republicans would not be voting for Obama if he were white while racist Democrats would. I think racist Democrats will convert an overwhelming McCain win into a huge landslide.
CC
CapedConservative on October 6, 2008 at 8:58 PM
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