McCain gives up on Michigan
posted at 4:05 pm on October 2, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Politico reports and Geraghty confirms. Michigan went blue four years ago so McCain doesn’t lose any electoral votes here, but compare the 2004 map with the state of play at the moment at RCP or Electoral-Vote. He can spare 16 of Bush’s EVs and still win the election even if he doesn’t flip any blue states; as things stand now, he’s looking at -7 in Iowa and -5 in New Mexico, with Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and even Missouri and North Carolina(!) up in the air. The three Kerry states he has a realistic shot at are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, but most polls have him behind in each (with a few polls showing a big Obama lead in Minnesota and a recent surge in Wisconsin). Even if he comes back and steals all three, they’re good for only 24 EVs. Obama could wipe out the gain by winning Florida or almost any combo of two of the six states I named above. In fact, including leaners, lefty site FiveThirtyEight has The One with fully 336 EVs right now versus barely 200 for Team Maverick. There is, in short, no more margin for error. Assuming Iowa and New Mexico are lost causes and Obama can hold the rest of Kerry’s cards, every last toss-up state that went for Bush four years ago has to break McCain’s way.
Exit question: Which swing state will Maverick pull out of next? Exit answer: This one.
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Oh yes. Tate’s chocolate chip cookies – the really crispy kind, made with lots of brown sugar and butter. Each one has about 500 calories. Indulge, my friend.
ManlyRash on October 2, 2008 at 4:32 PM
Your comments would be a lot more inspiring if there was even an inkling that McCain/Palin have a plan for victory. All I’m seeing is reactionary ads, uninspiring speeches, and a demoralized base at a time when they need to be energized.
What are you seeing that others don’t?
highhopes on October 2, 2008 at 4:32 PM
If McCain can’t even win New Mexico, a state that borders Arizona, what does this say about him?
Speedwagon82 on October 2, 2008 at 4:32 PM
We should all move to Alaska. At least we know they have a good Governor there. And it’s a little far for the Obama Goon Squads to come.
rockmom on October 2, 2008 at 4:33 PM
Get ready for bread and circuses – with lots of rap and hip-hop.
ManlyRash on October 2, 2008 at 4:33 PM
and a little too cold.
420sniper on October 2, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Mac could win it all, bring home every last conservative and a whole slew of leaners if he would just say he would enforce immigration laws. It’s a ripe apple right in front of his face and he’s just pushing it aside.
Bishop on October 2, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Hell I knew we’d lost when McCain got the nomination. He ran off half the conservatives in the GOP and anyone expected him to win?
Buzzy on October 2, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Arizona’s not even a sure bet. We’ve been under SuperDem Janet Napolitano for the past two elections as Gov’nor (I was in Texas before then so I don’t know past that) and from the most part the majority ’round here seems firmly Liberal. This may simply be due to living in the Phoenix area a few blocks down from ASU though.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 2, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Somehow I get the feeling that’s his aim. That, and it runs the “hit meter” up.
AubieJon on October 2, 2008 at 4:35 PM
Sadly, this is what kills it for me. I live in the freakin’ desert. I can’t take the frigid wilderness.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 2, 2008 at 4:35 PM
Hell, I’m definitely going to the polls to punch the button as hard as I can for Mc/Palin, its a conscience thing. I’ve donated too.
Just wondering what the big pause is in the campaign…suspending it to vote for the bill, with (seemingly) pork in it, just seems like bad strategery.
hippie_chucker on October 2, 2008 at 4:36 PM
I’ve never seen a campaign go from brillint to stupid so fast.
rockmom on October 2, 2008 at 4:30 PM
Mac must have fired most of his ad guys, they were on their game earlier this year.
Bishop on October 2, 2008 at 4:36 PM
That is the golden ticket, isn’t it? Too bad it’d be seen for what it is – a cheap political stunt.
Hell, McCain barely even mentions oil drilling anymore. They should be hammering this home every single day.
lorien1973 on October 2, 2008 at 4:36 PM
Calling the election for Obama this far out seems unwise. Given all that has happened in the last 30 days, there will certainly be bombs dropped in these last 30. Patience.
johnt on October 2, 2008 at 4:36 PM
Someone needs to tell McCain there’s an election going on – the guy is invisible.
Why can’t he start hitting back at Bambi? Start calling him Fannie Mae’s ‘Go To Guy’ in Washington, or Mr Freddie Mac? Something, anything…
rigdown on October 2, 2008 at 4:37 PM
What are you seeing that others don’t?
Hint: RNC and the Campaign aren’t allowed to coordinate. McCain camp ‘leaves’ a viable state?
All I’m seeing is reactionary ads, uninspiring speeches, and a demoralized base at a time when they need to be energized.
That was a given when McCain was announced as the Nominee.
blogRot on October 2, 2008 at 4:37 PM
I guess liberals no longer hold the monopoly on the “That’s it, my guy lost, so I’m moving to [insert far away state or foreign country here]” unpatriotic whine.
cornfedbubba on October 2, 2008 at 4:37 PM
His ad guys were always fine. This campaign went south with the lipstick/pig ad and when it started whining. That’s the turning point of this train.
And it hasn’t stopped the whining.
lorien1973 on October 2, 2008 at 4:37 PM
The Economy in Crisis, sends WOmen voters back to the Dems.
That has been the big problem, combine that with the Palin crap in the MSM and you get to this point. Palin needs to win women voters back tonight, then the 527’s need to role out and expose Obama to an electorate paying attention now.
jp on October 2, 2008 at 4:37 PM
I don’t think we should give up yet. Besides, we’re probably falling right into the DEMS trap.
We can whine and moan later if necessary. I was beside myself pissed yesterday and what’s the use? All I can do is vote and call my congressmen.
Oink on October 2, 2008 at 4:37 PM
Say good night fellas!!!
McCain imploded his campaign by not fighting and trying to be nice to everyone. Bush tried this right after getting elected. It didnt work then, and it wont work anytime in the future.
When will our Republican leadership learn that getting along with these people is not possible. Its like trying to get along with a thief trying to rob you. Fight back or just give up.
Wussies, we have wussies leading our party.
TheHat on October 2, 2008 at 4:39 PM
Still though, I’ll wait for tonight’s debate and then see what happens. If Sarah effs it up somehow, that will probably kill off what’s left of the campaign.
If that happens, I may just remove a shitload of the money I have in my savings and prepare for what’s coming.
Bishop on October 2, 2008 at 4:39 PM
I AGREE with Bonnie. We have over a month left. That’s 7 months in dog months and about a year in political time.
We have to keep our game faces on despite the losing score. It’s too early in the game to give up! You’re making the left-tards happy. Knock it off, will ya?
NightmareOnKStreet on October 2, 2008 at 4:39 PM
Michigan deserves ObaMao. They are a big union, Marxist democrat state. They love the state of the economy and want more of it. Hence their support of ObaMao.
roninacreage on October 2, 2008 at 4:40 PM
The RNC and McCain would never show footage of Obambi and Kwame or Obambi and Wright for fear of being labeled a racist.
uncalheels on October 2, 2008 at 4:41 PM
He is waiting for the bailout to pass. There isn’t anything left for McCain to do other than to get negative again, the campaign knows this. Next week, assuming the House passes the bailout, look for him to come out swinging.
johnt on October 2, 2008 at 4:41 PM
I agree. Too bad McCain doesn’t agree.
I laughed and cried at the same time.
BuckeyeSam on October 2, 2008 at 4:41 PM
Disappointed MI volunteer here. I wish he had waited until polls come out after the debate. We were in play until the so called economic crisis came about. This state, except for Detroit where dead people vote, is tired of the Democrats raising our taxes so that now we are in a real recession. McCain ’s continued bi’partisain BS is going to get him beat. He needs to come out and put the gloves on but I fear he won’t-so good-bye election. His own fault. I pray not
Bullhead on October 2, 2008 at 4:41 PM
Give it to me. I’ll do it.
Oink on October 2, 2008 at 4:43 PM
im not an expert on campaigning. but isnt there a more quite way of exiting a state that doesnt appear like you are losing?
venicesurfer on October 2, 2008 at 4:43 PM
1) Enforce immigration laws
2) Everything goes on energy and drilling
3) Investigations on the finacial mess
4) No more earmarks
5) Cut taxes and spending
Five or six simple planks and hammer them home.
Now that a Trillion is being diverted to the Bailout – how can Bambi carry out his expensive plans? Keep pointing this out and keep on blaring that Bambi will drive us into a deep recession.
rigdown on October 2, 2008 at 4:43 PM
Well I meant an area that isn’t already Republican. Like “gentrifying” a neighborhood. Target a state/area that has the capacity to swing right, and give up trying to defend the rural sections of every state.
Hey,at this rate, sooner or later it’s going to happen anyhow. Economic migrants from MI and elsewhere already went south.
Pakistan/India partition.
JiangxiDad on October 2, 2008 at 4:44 PM
Yes, I know. My point is that every swing state is pretty much a must-win for McCain.
Vashta.Nerada on October 2, 2008 at 4:44 PM
And it hasn’t stopped the whining.
lorien1973 on October 2, 2008 at 4:37 PM
Yah, the whining wasn’t good but earlier it seemed as if Mac’s ad men were a separate entity, like they were being allowed to say things that Mac wouldn’t say himself.
There is an entire armory of negative ammunition he could use against Odolto and all Mac can say is, “I want to be bipartisan blah blickety blah.” Meanwhile the DFL is taking the chainsaw to him as if he were Tony Montana’s sidekick trussed-up in the bathtub.
Bishop on October 2, 2008 at 4:44 PM
Think about that for a bit longer.
crr6 on October 2, 2008 at 4:45 PM
Any word on how Hillary’s coming along with the Bobby Kennedy Effect?
Ronnie on October 2, 2008 at 4:46 PM
And when he has appeared in the past three weeks (aside from the debate), talking about little more than bipartisanship, he’s been about as commanding as that androgynous character Pat from the 1990s SNL skit–sorry, a repeat from an earlier comment, but I can’t get the image out of my head.
BuckeyeSam on October 2, 2008 at 4:46 PM
This post is excellent and I assume an amateur analysis…….instead of going on offense with Palin, he puts her in a jar, either afraid of being out-drawn, or hubris in thinking she cannot be allowed to make a mistake. Probably the biggest mistake of his campaign and out-maneuvered by rockmom
Starlink on October 2, 2008 at 4:47 PM
Was McCain listening to Romney the day of “suspension”? Was Romney simply offering his opinion for the public on behalf of the GOP as McCain returned to Washington? If McCain paid better attention to Romney, wouldn’t that benefit his support from Michigan?
Phil Gramm got tossed under McCain’s bus for coming on strong with little patience for media sh*t framed as intolerance for typical Americans. At that point, I researched Gramm’s legislative history on banking–contributed to negativity imho. Still, I saw that Gramm was against this bail-out because it would do nothing to FIX THE PROBLEM while augmenting the suffering to come. Obviously, McCain ain’t listening to Phil any longer.
McCain’s not listening to Fred who told McCain to reverse his position on the bail-out. Fred stays out there drumming for Palin!
So McCain listens to Bush, Paulson, Pelosi, Reid, Obama on ECONOMY bail-out; no differentiation economically there. Does Michigan want leftist SCOTUS justice nominees, or they just couldn’t care less?
McCain’s been taken off target, and needs to re-align with his initial (only) success via conservatives.
maverick muse on October 2, 2008 at 4:48 PM
There’s still a month left folks. Don’t despair. There’s always the October surprise and it will not come from McCain. In fact, no one will know where it came from, but it will spell the end for Obama.
jewells45 on October 2, 2008 at 4:48 PM
You imply that people in red states adopt blue-state values because they’re superior. You’re wrong. Often, refugees from blue states move to red states, but are tainted by liberalism and infect their hosts.
Think about that for a bit longer.
JiangxiDad on October 2, 2008 at 4:49 PM
Because responsible people are the ones moving. The blue states become bluer by all of the takers remaining.
Vashta.Nerada on October 2, 2008 at 4:49 PM
I suspect that McCain needed her at his own rallies to attract a crowd. Consider the headlines if he set her loose on her own: “Palin draws 25,000 in PA; McCain Speaks to 35 at Townhall at Boca Del Vista, Phase II.”
BuckeyeSam on October 2, 2008 at 4:51 PM
Liberalism is a virus. It infects it’s host. See New Orleans, Detroit, Philadelphia, Oakland etc. etc. Once destroyed, the people move on to redder pastures and start again. And like other viruses, it’s hard to eradicate, but necessary.
JiangxiDad on October 2, 2008 at 4:52 PM
“A McCain adviser confirmed the news but noted that the Republican National Committee’s independent expenditure arm is still running ads there, and that McCain will keep most of his staff in-state. McCain officials and Michigan Republican Party officials declined to comment.”
pssst – keep this in the downlow; non-bad news like this would give AP a heart attack.
blogRot on October 2, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Red states offer lower taxes, less regulation, more jobs, and better looking women. Ask anyone. That’s why blue staters move here.
uncalheels on October 2, 2008 at 4:52 PM
If there isn’t one I would be surprised. Obama can’t be as clean as he is being made out to be.
johnt on October 2, 2008 at 4:53 PM
I think of it more like a swarm of locusts, eating every valuable thing in sight.
Vashta.Nerada on October 2, 2008 at 4:53 PM
Fixed it above. Liberals never threaten to move to red states…only France. Besides, liberals are evil. You should know that.
ManlyRash on October 2, 2008 at 4:54 PM
As long as voters in Michigan keep voting dem, they deserve to be plowed under and boarded up like a ghost town in the western desert. Stupid nonsence! Brain dead voters!
CH on October 2, 2008 at 4:54 PM
Can we at least hold off on the defeatist gloom and doom until after the election?
I would like to be able to enjoy these last few days of freedom before Nov 4th if it’s at all possible, thank you.
Lincoln on October 2, 2008 at 4:54 PM
JustTruth101 +1
Fight THROUGH the bitter end.
If you’re already dead, what are you going to do about it?!
maverick muse on October 2, 2008 at 4:55 PM
I think “locusts” makes for better imagery.
ManlyRash on October 2, 2008 at 4:56 PM
What’s your price for flight.
ronsfi on October 2, 2008 at 4:56 PM
I dread the inevitable tell-all magazine articles from McCain campaign insiders on “What Went Wrong”.
Speedwagon82 on October 2, 2008 at 4:56 PM
I may be supporting a lost cause according to the Mud Stream Media but I’m going to continue to speak out against His Royal Holiness, The Savior of the little people.
VikingGoneWild on October 2, 2008 at 4:57 PM
No, someone pointed out correctly that it’s a mental disorder.
Only a liberal would enact everything they want in a state, decide the outcome sucked, and move to another state and do the exact same thing again.
lorien1973 on October 2, 2008 at 4:59 PM
Democrats and liberals are like locusts, they destroy places like Michigan, which was once a nice place to live and farm, and then move on to ruin other places.
CH on October 2, 2008 at 5:00 PM
RELAX FOLKS.
*
A month ago we were up by a few. One week from now, the economic meltdown will subside.
*
AND THE “GOD DAMN AMERICA” ADS START!!!!!
marklmail on October 2, 2008 at 5:01 PM
McCain gives up on Michigan
LMAO! So has Michigan…what a hole
OSUBuciz1 on October 2, 2008 at 5:02 PM
Speedwagon82
…graced with the headline, “Life Isn’t Fair,” by John McCain.
It’s time for our old navy pilot to buck up and shake off the Bush-loser syndrome for his own meme.
maverick muse on October 2, 2008 at 5:02 PM
“AND THE “GOD DAMN AMERICA” ADS START!!!!!”
I hope so. What do you know?
CH on October 2, 2008 at 5:04 PM
We better enjoy it while we can because we’ll be getting Fairness Doctrine 2 here pretty soon.
BowHuntingTexas on October 2, 2008 at 5:05 PM
I guess they just can’t get enough of those great Democrat Detroit mayors…
right2bright on October 2, 2008 at 5:05 PM
So has Michigan…what a hole
Touché and hard to take.
maverick muse on October 2, 2008 at 5:05 PM
A friend of mine who is on the McCain volunteer email list told me on Sunday that she got an email urgently asking for volunteers to go to North Carolina and Florida. Sounds to me like they really are circling the wagons now, trying to corral all the red states from 2004 and that’s it. So you have to wonder WTF McCain was doing in Iowa last week!
If they pull out of PA I am going into the fetal position. Obama is flooding the airwaves with ads here which tells me he has not closed the sale in Phildelphia.
rockmom on October 2, 2008 at 5:06 PM
That RCP graph for PA is chilling.
Wow.
Purple Fury on October 2, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Rush.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on October 2, 2008 at 5:10 PM
well, the +17 for Obama in Quinn. poll is factored in and athat can’t be right.
McCain can’t lose by anymore than Santorum did, tops.
jp on October 2, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Obama is flooding the airwaves here in NC, on radio and TV. Plus there are liberal 527’s going after McCain, they’ve managed to get servarl hundred thousand new registered voters. plus there area lot of blacks obviously and transplant Yankee Liberals.
haven’t seen any McCain ads yet, not sure if that means they still think NC is safe or they are idiots.
jp on October 2, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Comparing Obama to Hitler is a little over the top don’t you think? And have you read most of Allah’s posts? Just because Allah isn’t in denial about the state of election doesn’t mean that he’s in the tank for Obama.
I think your quite right not to give up and do everything possible to elect your candidate Bonnie. But conservatives need to wake up and stop blaming the polls. If you go to RCP and check out their archives, the poll of polls in 2004 predicted around a 1.5% victory for Bush and accurately predicted all of the swing states except for Wisconsin. If the election were held today, McCain would lose, and lose big. The only thing that will change this fact if Obama makes a monumental mistake in a debate, a huge October surprise comes out, or a terrorist attack. Barring that, prepare yourself for at least two years in the wilderness.
Having said all that, don’t get too discouraged. I myself was devastated with Bush beat Kerry and the Republicans padded their majority in congress. I can’t believe in just four short years Democrats are poised to control all three branches of government.
Ric on October 2, 2008 at 5:14 PM
ManRash. I really hate rap.
SwabJockey on October 2, 2008 at 5:15 PM
Because liberals leave their blue states after running them into the ground, and move to red states, thereby infecting them with their same failed ideology and voting habits. They are like a bad virus that seeks a new host after killing off the current one.
roninacreage on October 2, 2008 at 5:16 PM
We need our own shock and awe confrontational style.
If McCain remains aloof as though so far above the fray, he’s removed himself from the campaign. He’s done the Wizard of Oz on us, taking off in his balloon without Dorothy.
When McCain delivers his blows to Obama, WE LOVE IT! The fact is, America demands that McCain blow Obama down. We’ve entered the wildfire campaign zone during a prolonged drought. Life isn’t fair; fires aren’t fair. Either fight fire with fire, or bring the flood waters that don’t exist. But unless you have knowledge of a miracle up your sleeve, don’t cave in to align with Obama. You can’t withstand the wildfire. You can combat it, but you can’t survive without an effective plan. Escape is not the only alternative.
maverick muse on October 2, 2008 at 5:22 PM
I’m doing the best I can, but this one man one vote thing is really getting in the way. After all, I’m not a Democrat.
eyedoc on October 2, 2008 at 5:24 PM
hahahaha
maverick muse on October 2, 2008 at 5:26 PM
A campaign is an administration in miniature, and McCain has surrounded himself with nincompoops. Those same ‘idiots studying to be morons’ would go with him into the WH. I almost think we would be lucky if he does go down to defeat.
McCain can’t run a campaign, can’t pick the right people to advise him, is unreliable as a leader – tell me again why we’re voting for him?
trailboss on October 2, 2008 at 5:28 PM
Because Obama can’t become president. No matter what.
johnt on October 2, 2008 at 5:30 PM
AP, you depress the hell out of me.
DarkeningCloud on October 2, 2008 at 5:30 PM
Who knows whether this current economic crisis is natural or was deliberately accelerated by Obamists to coincide with the election campaign to aid their candidate. But this crisis plus the non-stop smear attacks on Sarah Palin’s competency (one even suggesting she has a yen for teen age men) are making John McCain’s election problematic. “Nice guys finish last” as they say. (Look at Bob Dole).
There are two choices. Either launch a vicious (but true)attack on Obama’s Marxist ways and questionable associates or surrender this country, on the eve of a possible depression, to tax-hiking socialists who caused this economic crisis in the first place.
MaiDee on October 2, 2008 at 5:30 PM
We can all take comfort in the fact that it will not include accounts of McCain dropping F-bombs because he didn’t have his favorite hairbrush.
rw on October 2, 2008 at 5:32 PM
He must have Colorado and Nevada…and hold all the other Bush states. Outside chance he can take New Hampshire and one of Maine’s electoral votes vis-a-vis their 2nd congressional district and their split-the-electoral-college-vote.
If he holds Virginia it’ll be a nail-biter in Nevada and Colorado. If not, we all get to go bed early…and drunk.
SouthernGent on October 2, 2008 at 5:44 PM
No matter what? I think we are going to see it happen, no matter what. McCain lost this the day he started campaigning, and even Obama can’t change that.
trailboss on October 2, 2008 at 5:47 PM
Remember when Obama pulled out of Florida? The headline news about him giving up on a battleground state?
*crickets*
McCain isn’t the only one who’s regrouping before the election. He’s just the Republican, so he’s being cast as a loser.
On election day 2004, I had a busy day so didn’t turn on the television all day. So I missed the group despair by conservative pundits on how President Bush had lost the election. This was based on exit polls. Then the results started coming in, right as I started fixing supper. Hey! Guess who won!
bonnie_ on October 2, 2008 at 6:18 PM
Yeah, and then they vote the same types in locally that made them move to start with. It’s aggravating and bizarre all at once.
SouthernGent on October 2, 2008 at 6:21 PM
B.S.
McCain will win Pennsylvania. He has not yet begun to fight back.
Let’s have some optimism here. I think we’ll all be more optimistic tomorrow after the debate.
The POWER of positive thinking. And reality vs. rainbows.
connertown on October 2, 2008 at 6:21 PM
Jesus H. Christ! This thread reminds me of children suffering from ADD that must be stimulated every waking second of every single day.
Anybody got a calendar? Mine says the election if a full MONTH away. Oh, I get it… everyone here is astroturfing in an effort to get the McCain folks to shoot their wad early in the race to they can win some all-important polls instead of the main event. Those polls sure do elect people!
(mumbling as I walk away) rtznfrz grszgl fkrs dpstrshts
CC
CapedConservative on October 2, 2008 at 6:44 PM
And NO, the H doesn’t stand for Hussein!
CC
CapedConservative on October 2, 2008 at 6:45 PM
If Juan wins Ohio it will be only because of Palin. Mac has never had a following in Ohio,only he and the Huckster were active candidates when we had our primary.I voted for Mitt because Tancredo wasn’t on the ballot.
Burka Hussein is carpetbombing the state with ads, at least he knows Ohio is a must win .
ohiorebel on October 2, 2008 at 7:02 PM
Time for Palin to use the nuclear option – go off on a rant about illegal immigration. Blow this whole race up.
Dudley Smith on October 2, 2008 at 8:02 PM
Oh for God’s sake! This is Michigan- other than the U fo M, there is nothing bright about the entire state! (well, Sleeping Bear dunes is pretty, at least) “Michiganders” are really stupid- they always have been.
‘Lets elect the MOST corrupt government we can in our largest city, and then lets elect the most corrupt governor, and then lets have the highest property taxes in America- surely all that will bring us prosperity” If they want to elect a corrupt president- no one is going to stop them.
anniekc on October 2, 2008 at 8:15 PM
I’m writting off Michigan as well (except the UP of course – great hunting and fishing).
Fuquay Steve on October 2, 2008 at 8:27 PM
The Straight Talk
ExpressTitanicChimpy on October 2, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Where is our version of George Soros? Surely there’s some deep pockets here to run some good 529 hit pieces.
We couldn’t believe that a draft dodger could win in ‘92 but he did. We can’t believe that a Marxist can win in’08 but he can. Maybe every generation needs to have a Carter so they understand the ACTUAL role of government.
Mojave Mark on October 2, 2008 at 11:24 PM
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