McCain gives up on Michigan

posted at 4:05 pm on October 2, 2008 by Allahpundit

Politico reports and Geraghty confirms. Michigan went blue four years ago so McCain doesn’t lose any electoral votes here, but compare the 2004 map with the state of play at the moment at RCP or Electoral-Vote. He can spare 16 of Bush’s EVs and still win the election even if he doesn’t flip any blue states; as things stand now, he’s looking at -7 in Iowa and -5 in New Mexico, with Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and even Missouri and North Carolina(!) up in the air. The three Kerry states he has a realistic shot at are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, but most polls have him behind in each (with a few polls showing a big Obama lead in Minnesota and a recent surge in Wisconsin). Even if he comes back and steals all three, they’re good for only 24 EVs. Obama could wipe out the gain by winning Florida or almost any combo of two of the six states I named above. In fact, including leaners, lefty site FiveThirtyEight has The One with fully 336 EVs right now versus barely 200 for Team Maverick. There is, in short, no more margin for error. Assuming Iowa and New Mexico are lost causes and Obama can hold the rest of Kerry’s cards, every last toss-up state that went for Bush four years ago has to break McCain’s way.

Exit question: Which swing state will Maverick pull out of next? Exit answer: This one.


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Comments

McCain could win Michigan if he can convince Romney to speak here for him. Of course he would need to offer Romeny something substantial too. Like maybe Secretary of Commerce or Treasury.

The bottom line is that McCain has not done well in Michigan because of his statement that most of the jobs that left Michigan are gone and not coming back. It cost him the primary here.

If he announced ahead of time that Romney would head Commerce then Romney could start stumping for him on economic issues. It would give the McCain campaign some much needed credibility on the econmy and put Michigan back in play.

Hawthorne on October 3, 2008 at 3:10 AM

This calling a win so far in advance is silly.

We couldn’t believe that a draft dodger could win in ‘92 but he did. We can’t believe that a Marxist can win in’08 but he can. Maybe every generation needs to have a Carter so they understand the ACTUAL role of government.

Mojave Mark on October 2, 2008 at 11:24 PM

You may be right. I really hope not. But on the bright side, Obama WILL screw up royally is he gets elected. Look at the company he keeps. You can judge a man by the company he keeps that’s for sure.
After an Obamma administration, IF we were to survive as a sovereign nation, nobody would let that happen for another 30 yrs.

Badger40 on October 3, 2008 at 12:40 PM

why would you publicly announce that your giving up om Michigan? .. does that mean rebuplicans who have been fighting tooth and nail for Mccain in Michigan should give up and not vote… what is the tactical thinking involved in announcing that your giving it to Obama. why not at least keep your mouth shut and allow Obama to spend his money there?. there are alot of people in Michigan that say hell with that we are still fighting.. are we not worth fighting for…

DarianCounts on October 3, 2008 at 4:56 PM