Luntz focus group: Palin in a blowout; Update: CBS, CNN polls say Biden won?
posted at 11:25 pm on October 2, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Lest anyone think Luntz cooks these things, his presidential debate FG was basically a wash tilting slightly towards Obama and his FG for C-SPAN shortly after Palin was picked was decidedly chilly towards her.
The electoral math is sufficiently unforgiving that I can’t quite believe this is a gamechanger, but clearly she did as well as anyone could have hoped. Clutch.
Update: At the very least, Palin’s alive for 2012. A nice consolation prize if things don’t pan out this year.
Update: It’s a Democratic year, I guess.
CBS News and Knowledge Networks have conducted a nationally representative poll of 473 uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight’s vice presidential debate…
Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.
Eighteen percent of previously uncommitted percent say they are now committed to the Obama-Biden ticket. Ten percent say they are now committed to McCain-Palin. Seventy-one percent are still uncommitted.
Those results are partial; the good news is that Palin helped herself hugely, with 55 percent now more favorable to her and only 14 percent less so.
Can’t find a link yet for CNN but Taegan Goddard says they have it 51/36 for Greasy Joe.
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Ed did a great job…
TheBigOldDog on October 2, 2008 at 11:52 PM
Fixed it.
peski on October 2, 2008 at 11:52 PM
Uncommitted voters, my heiny. Those polls are stacked with democrats. I have neighbors who claim they’re “independent” who are the first in town to have a political sign in their front yard and it’s always a democrat’s.
These neighbors would be the first to claim they’re “uncommitted” to scew the results. CBS and CNN put out these polls to force the narrative they want.
But the real deal is if Andrew Sullivan thinks Palin won, she must have creamed Biden.
Sensible Mom on October 2, 2008 at 11:53 PM
Why are you guys talking about CNN’s or CBS’s audience? These aren’t those online audience polls we’re talking about.
Also, bear in mind that who “won” a debate is subjective and depends on how you define victory. Biden clearly sounded more in command of specifics relating to policy, but Palin certainly exceeded the ridiculously low expectations created by a lazy, unintelligent media.
DaveS on October 2, 2008 at 11:53 PM
How do they determine who is an uncommitted voter? Do they just ask? How can you verify that someone is an uncommitted voter? Do they take lie detector tests?
True_King on October 2, 2008 at 11:53 PM
Dude, if that doesn’t convince you once and for all these polls are complete garbage, designed and conducted to shape opinion rather than reflect it, nothing will…
TheBigOldDog on October 2, 2008 at 11:54 PM
Palin/Me NOW!
Sorry Todd, I’m drunk!! ;D
Good job Sarah!!
Calm Before the Storm on October 2, 2008 at 11:54 PM
Still not hearing anyone talking about Biden sighing into the microphone.
Enoxo on October 2, 2008 at 11:55 PM
Frequently, when the cross-tabs on the phone polls are printed, they turn out to have badly skewed samples. I’ll take Luntz’s groupthink pander-meters this time. Sometimes they miss the political factors that can play out over longer periods without affecting an average viewer’s judgment of who “won” or “lost,” but this debate was all about restoring the Republican Dynamic Duo. For the last two weeks, we had the aging war hero dragging the wounded beginner across the beach under heavy fire. That’s over.
CK MacLeod on October 2, 2008 at 11:55 PM
If and only if they give Palin and her husband a couple of guns, some backpacks, and hiking boots and leave her alone.
BuckeyeSam on October 2, 2008 at 11:55 PM
All polls up until the actual vote are silly entertainment products. The polling companies will try to baffle people with BS about how they do statistical analysis, yadda, yadda…but every single one is just an opinion survey of a tiny number of people. I’ve never seen a single one that would pass muster for even a shoddy clinical trial or scientific study.
funky chicken on October 2, 2008 at 11:55 PM
33% percent it was a tie??????????? i don’t care if you take a position opposite me, but this riding the fence sh** has got to stop.
can the 33% names be released so i can personally punch them in the face?
wryteacher on October 2, 2008 at 11:56 PM
Ferocious spin from FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Wow. I knew they were Obama supporters, but they can’t even be fair. Why does this always surprise me with libs?
SouthernGent on October 2, 2008 at 11:56 PM
No intelligent person would watch CNN or CBS, just goes to show you who the democRats bring in.
Palin was awesome tonight, shame on me for being so nervous that I almost didn’t watch it, so glad I did.
Robyn S on October 2, 2008 at 11:56 PM
I thought it was hilarous at the end when Biden talked about his nice big house and how well-off he is now, and Palin talked about working class people “like me.” That had to have Axelrod and Plouffe banging their heads against the wall. So much for those class-warfare ads!
rockmom on October 2, 2008 at 11:56 PM
You’re assumption is they are trying to reflect true public opinion. They aren’t. They are trying to shape it. The start off with the result and then fit the data to it.
TheBigOldDog on October 2, 2008 at 11:56 PM
Kinda off topic but I just gotta tell someone!
I started working part time at a small business this week. I was going to avoid politics since I didn’t know anyone. Today a minority woman came right out and asked me who I was going to vote for.. I was horrified because I was surrounded by minorities and college students…I just knew I was about to be burned at the stake.
When I said McCain.. every single one of them agreed with me. The minority woman can not speak English very well. She told me that Obama scares her with all the dirty dealings he had in Chicago plus the Goon squad stuff. She said how much she hated the media..THEN she wanted to discuss his involvement in ACORN! I was blown away.
A couple mentioned that McCain’s decision to help with the Bailout is what made them cement their vote because Obama did nothing.
I was schooled today for sure.. and if this is any representation of what may be going on around America.. we may have a fighting chance.
GoodBoy on October 2, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Loved the black woman in Luntz’ group gushing about Palin and saying she has decided to vote for McCain. Anther head-exploding moment in Obama HQ.
rockmom on October 2, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Who gives a sh*t what cnn and company thinks. We know what America thinks and Governor Palin is the best thing to happen to America since sliced bread. This girl is amazing!!!!! I have never felt so energized by a politician who actually is one of us. Another donation for the McCain/Palin team!!!!!!!!!!!
bloggless on October 2, 2008 at 11:58 PM
Loved the black woman in Luntz’ group gushing about Palin and saying she has decided to vote for McCain. Anther head-exploding moment in Obama HQ.
rockmom on October 2, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Obviously she’s a RACIS….wait…crap.
Bishop on October 2, 2008 at 11:58 PM
Yeah, that’s probably a better indicator. I’ll bet Sully wishes he WAS her right about now.
JonPrichard on October 2, 2008 at 11:59 PM
How about a global warming scientific study?
m064404 on October 2, 2008 at 11:59 PM
That may have been the moment when I started singing my college fight song!
CK MacLeod on October 2, 2008 at 11:59 PM
Even Brokaw is agreeing that Palin snuffed Biden.
Take heart, this will help Mac; it won’t bump him ten points but it will stop the bleeding.
Bishop on October 3, 2008 at 12:00 AM
I tried to vote in the cbs and cnn poll and it didn’t register my vote. Interesting. Also.. how much cred should you give a cbs, cnn, msnbc, abc, nbc, washington post, nyt, politico poll? I give it none whatsoever. These outfits are so far in the tank for obama they should be salaried employees!
Twoconservative on October 3, 2008 at 12:00 AM
What state do you live in? I’m in Texas so I’m stoked we’re red as blood but bummed my vote means nothing.
Marcus on October 3, 2008 at 12:00 AM
And that tool bought his lot from a contributor for the same price that the contributor purchased it five or so years before. A local paper in Biden’s area wrote about it within the past two weeks.
McCain and Palin need to ask Obama and Biden to tell Americans how we can get special deals on the homes we build.
BuckeyeSam on October 3, 2008 at 12:00 AM
Tonight she secured the base, picked up some independents & impressed some PUMA’s.
People that don’t follow politics will be confounded enough to start questioning what they hear from the MSM.
CBS polls aren’t even worth mentioning.
Dorvillian on October 3, 2008 at 12:01 AM
Nah, American’s aren’t stupid and don’t like to be told what to think. They’re onto the whole bias thing more than ever…especially because of Sarah’s treatment. The avg non-brainwashed American is who I’m talking about…the Reagan voters who loved her after her speech. They all will feel in their gut she won tonight given the expectations, and seeing a Biden winning poll isn’t going to change their feelings.
econavenger on October 3, 2008 at 12:01 AM
Palin did quite well.
Unfortunately, she dropped the ball on the banking crisis. She ignored Biden’s allegation about McCain wanting to deregulate health care like he deregulated the banking system.
The economy is the #1 issue in this debate now. It is actually a bigger issue than Obama himself.
Palin did not do enough to attack Obama. McPalin have decided to be nice. I hope they know what they’re doing.
Obama Resistance League…. fight the cool.
indythinker on October 3, 2008 at 12:01 AM
IF you believe in the Sarah Palin message, then DONATE, DONATE,DONATE!!!!! Otherwise have Puffy Combs, Asshole Kutchner, Dumbi Moore, Sandra Bearfart, speak for you!!!!!!!!!! Do not let the MSM speak for you!!!!!! Come one people, do your share!!!!!!!!!!!!!
bloggless on October 3, 2008 at 12:01 AM
How about some real-life polls that average people would agree with?
Which candidate would you rather sit with at the kitchen table, having a beer and discussing things?
Bishop on October 3, 2008 at 12:02 AM
I saw that too. She’ll get voted off the island.
BuckeyeSam on October 3, 2008 at 12:02 AM
Marcus, I also am in Texas and I took that into consideration. However, none of them were born here.
GoodBoy on October 3, 2008 at 12:03 AM
Palin +1.
She solidified her political future tonight instead of burying it.
Now watch McCain blow it.
420sniper on October 3, 2008 at 12:03 AM
No kidding.
Zetterson on October 3, 2008 at 12:03 AM
Absurdity at its finest.
anuts on October 3, 2008 at 12:04 AM
M$M=Lying sacks of s**t.
Over.
1GooDDaDDy on October 3, 2008 at 12:04 AM
She took a knife and gutted Biden on stage and his bowels fell out for all to see. Then she wiped away the blood from her knife with a smile, turned back to ol Joe who stood with that “deer in the spotlight look” and said, “You’re a nice man Joe and I respect you.”
JellyToast on October 3, 2008 at 12:04 AM
Biden- says global warming (or whatever they are calling it these days) is totally man made. What an idiot!!!!!! Thirty years and he is a scientist now.
bloggless on October 3, 2008 at 12:05 AM
The only ones that pass my personal BS test are the ones from those ocean crawler temp sensors … that show no warming since 1998. Those results compared with the atmospheric carbon dioxide level increase pretty much kill the whole AGW thing right away. All the other crap about “scientific concensus” or whatever? Again, just opinion surveys…kind of like Coke vs Pepsi taste tests.
My background is biochemistry, and any opinion poll with a few hundred people supposed to extrapolate out to predict the behavior of over 100 million? idiotic, IMHO
but hey, what a great country that Rasmussen, Zogby et al can get rich, and employ lots of people producing such silly stuff
funky chicken on October 3, 2008 at 12:05 AM
Ace has the Morris colmes video
TheBigOldDog on October 3, 2008 at 12:05 AM
So the Luntz focus group poll is legit, but all the other network polls are garbage? Come on. Let’s not be childish.
For the majority here that seem to think it was a landslide. Can any of you tell me one point Palin made refuting the myth that McCain’s love of deregulation caused the financial crisis which is currently believed by most casual voters?
ClassicCon on October 3, 2008 at 12:05 AM
My wife is the nervous type, whenever she hears a noise she looks at me and wants to know what it is.
Usually it’s the ice maker, tonight it was Joe.
Dorvillian on October 3, 2008 at 12:05 AM
I thought Palin was fine but she didn’t blow Biden away by any means. She never did point out his party’s role in the housing mess. Biden can get away with his lies because the MSM won’t call him on it, she should have when she had a national audience. You guys need to look at this from the POV of people that don’t stay informed like us. This week the economy is the big story and Palin said nothing to put the blame where it belongs. Hopefully McCain will hammer Obama on it in the next debate.
kongzilla on October 3, 2008 at 12:05 AM
We all knew that the MSM would attempt to spin this into a Biden win no matter how well Palin did, so no one should be shocked that this is what’s happening.
In reality, for the second time Palin has fought off an overwhelming effort to marginalize and “Quayleize” and did it under the hottest lights imaginable. This woman is tough.
rsrobinson on October 3, 2008 at 12:05 AM
Allah, you gotta stop playing into the MSM’s hands bro. I’m not saying we should be unrealistic, but you’re starting to take this bipolar thing to a dangerous extreme.
Jim-Rose on October 3, 2008 at 12:06 AM
Allah, please tell me that you got the clip of Dick Morris lighting into Alan Colmes. Please!
Jimmie on October 3, 2008 at 12:06 AM
That was nice to read. Thanks for taking the time. What state do you live in? I’m in Ohio, where I fear the state will be stolen.
BuckeyeSam on October 3, 2008 at 12:06 AM
You go girl!!
REPUBLICAN LANDSLIDE!
JellyToast on October 3, 2008 at 12:06 AM
LOL, well if you are in Austin, then I would be flabbergasted.
Marcus on October 3, 2008 at 12:07 AM
I live in Central Illinois and I’m seeing the samething here. I work in a retail store and customers have been mentioning politics alot lately. And I can tell you this, the overwhelming majority say the very same thing; “I’m not a McCain fan, I think all politicians are liars, but Obama scares me to death. There is no way I am voting for that guy. I’ll vote McCain just to keep him out.” Now, here in Illinois the Republican votes are wasted by the Democrat votes in Chicago, but the sheer distrust and outright hatred of Obama is staggering!
FiveWays on October 3, 2008 at 12:08 AM
ORL???????
Um….can’t we find a better acronym?
Limerick on October 3, 2008 at 12:08 AM
NBC, CBS, PBS, MSNBC, ABC can take their ‘polls’ and shove it. I wouldn’t trust them anymore than I’d trust Congress right now.
And that’s being generous.
GarandFan on October 3, 2008 at 12:09 AM
We’re in two wars, we’re in a credit crisis, and we have no sensible energy policy. Palin should have told Ifill that nobody but Obama Kool-Aid drinkers give a rat’s ass about global warming. Drill, drill, drill.
BuckeyeSam on October 3, 2008 at 12:10 AM
I confess I laughed out loud.
Spirit of 1776 on October 3, 2008 at 12:10 AM
This may go down like the famous Nixon Kennedy debate even if someone claims Biden technically won on debate points.
Nixon won on radio, Kennedy on TV right? Well Joe Biden was Richard Nixon tonight. Congrats.
econavenger on October 3, 2008 at 12:10 AM
Dude, that site is one of the most worthless collections of garbage I have seen on the internet. Informed, accurate and attractive? More like deranged, insane, and nauseating.
m064404 on October 3, 2008 at 12:11 AM
Luntz’s groupies love Mitt every time too. What’s up with that? Maybe it’s a voodoo curse.
trailboss on October 3, 2008 at 12:11 AM
do not trust any polls from the following
cbs
nbc
abc
cnn
msnbc
as rush rightly pointed out today, it is now an all out push to demoralize the right with these ridiculous polls. dont believe them.
blatantblue on October 3, 2008 at 12:12 AM
I grew up in the Chicago suburbs, and I went to law school at UofI in Champaign. Illinois is a funny state. It’s Chicago and the suburbs–and the rest of the state. And the two kind of hate each other. I found it interesting to watch the Chicago-area guys and downstate guys always sparring.
BuckeyeSam on October 3, 2008 at 12:14 AM
Biden now knows what many a moose has found out the hard way. You don’t want to be Palin’s target. She killed him. The only thing that remains to be done is to have him stuffed.
Guardian on October 3, 2008 at 12:14 AM
Ah, but it’s never that simple with Excitable Andy. He still decided that Biden won, even though he sucked. Cognitive dissonance, they name is Andrew.
Kensington on October 3, 2008 at 12:14 AM
I just saw this old thread:
projection? I take that as proof that Obama’s been wearing a radio so Axelrod can feed him his answers.
just like our very own hotair astroturfers! except they only get email communication from their great leader.
funky chicken on October 3, 2008 at 12:15 AM
I’m not sure he has enough cognitive to dissonance.
trailboss on October 3, 2008 at 12:16 AM
What the governor did tonight was neutralize the argument that she is an airhead and totally unqualified for that reason. Now if someone is against her candidacy it will be on the merits of the issues instead. The race is now between the two presidential candidates. She has gone back to being the one who will energize the base and bring in some undecideds. She did what she needed to do.
I am not surprised by how well she did. I expected her to do a good job. But I have been in total support of her from the beginning as have others here.
Rose on October 3, 2008 at 12:16 AM
F*CK IT
WE’LL DO IT LIVE!
idk.
blatantblue on October 3, 2008 at 12:17 AM
All these polls are complete BS. Look at Drudge, a online site, visited by Dems and Repubs, 200,000 votes are Sarah has 72%. Compare that with 400 votes? 400???? The left rules the net when it comes to things, you’d think they’d have thousands spamming big polls like that, yet she got 72%.
Rbastid on October 3, 2008 at 12:19 AM
Interesting debate tonight, especially the insights from my 13-yr old son (School assignment to watch it). His impressions: Biden won – barely, but Palin came off as competent and respectable. he also noticed that the moderator seemed to give Biden easier questions and harder – or more confusing – ones to Palin.
He had no idea who Gwen Ifill is, so I should him some of the stuff out there on her upcoming book. He shook his head and said, “I knew something was wrong.”
If a smart-alecky teenager picked up the bias in tonight’s debate, I’m clued into it as well.
Ace ODale on October 3, 2008 at 12:21 AM
JOe, when in doubt SIGH!!!!!!!! You loser. All you can do is sigh when a woman is beating your *ss. Why don’t you go have Michelle fertilize you plugs.
bloggless on October 3, 2008 at 12:21 AM
True, Marcus. If I lived in Austin I woulda been at the Hospital looking at why I was hallucinating.
I still think we should take a hint from Ron Paul supporters and put up signs everywhere that say Obama is the antichrist.
GoodBoy on October 3, 2008 at 12:21 AM
Drudge had mccain winning 64% too. And Obama gained in the polls post debate.
lorien1973 on October 3, 2008 at 12:21 AM
Join in the fight against the mind numbed drones of the B.O.R.G.(Barack Obama Religious Groupies)…
elgeneralisimo on October 3, 2008 at 12:22 AM
If you haven’t figured out by now who to vote for, you pansy “independents” in name only, then please move to Canada where they will welcome your sorry indecisiveness.
Don’t believe the polls, they are stacked and padded to persuade opinion, not to reflect reality.
Conservative Voice on October 3, 2008 at 12:22 AM
That Libby lady from Alaska on Greta is so cute! Alaskan women in glasses…hhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmm.
SouthernGent on October 3, 2008 at 12:23 AM
So 54% of undecided voters thought she either won or tied a 35 year Senator? That’s not a bad thing.
Dudley Smith on October 3, 2008 at 12:23 AM
Thank you. Those of you showering each other with champagne need to settle down. First pres campaign virgins?
ClassicCon on October 3, 2008 at 12:23 AM
LMAO.
nickj116 on October 3, 2008 at 12:24 AM
Oh darn. I’m glad you caught that.
Socialism Resistance League?
indythinker on October 3, 2008 at 12:25 AM
Dang its late.
If a smart-alecky teenager pickd up the bias in tonight’s debate, I’m sure others clued into it as well.
Ace ODale on October 3, 2008 at 12:25 AM
those CBS and CNN polls prove they are playing games and can not be trusted. No way in hell those are legit numbers, they probably had those ‘flash polls’ ready before the debate as part of the MSM narrative.
jp on October 3, 2008 at 12:25 AM
I’m guessing we won’t be hearing any more about her being the second coming of Dan Quayle
jp on October 3, 2008 at 12:26 AM
Why? It was a great moment and she shined. It’s always nice to celebrate nice moments, even if not everyone else does.
Spirit of 1776 on October 3, 2008 at 12:26 AM
McCain is tone deaf–and he’s falling on his own sword by accident. Here’s a guy who said in his acceptance speech about porky earmarks, “We will know their names.” Then he suspends his campaign in the middle of a media driven financial “crisis” to go to Washington and produce a staggeringly pork-laden, socialist bill from the Senate to replace the wildly unpopular bill which was just freshly defeated in the House. He won’t name names on that, nor will he name names with the Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac scandals in the debates. He won’t mention that one of Obama’s advisers came from either Fanny Mae or Freddie Mac (not sure which), and won’t mention Obama received a lot of cash from them. If he won’t name names now, what makes me think he’ll do it as POTUS? To this day he refuses to listen to the electorate, he listens to the media.
The guy is a present day keystone cop.
Tom Blogical on October 3, 2008 at 12:26 AM
I just can’t believe that this country would elect a radical marxist like Obama as President. Please tell me that my fellow countrymen aren’t that suicidal!
Jim C
JimC99 on October 3, 2008 at 12:26 AM
Yep,, no sane man or woman could come away from that debate and say Biden won. We will now be told we did not see what we saw.
This proves to me,, these polls showing Biden won,, this is as much proof as we would ever need that these polls are fraudulent. The entire MSM has a stake in Obama winning ( I leave out Fox News). They have been telling us Palin is a moron, They are invested in Obama. And now that their charade has imploded they have a job to do to rebuild it!
Also,, I will just throw this out,,, I sense a little, as Rush says,, a little “rope a dope” here?! Is it possible??
Peggy Noonan stated Biden came out expecting one thing and got another. Some of this hiding her away and “confused looks” may have been just a little strategy. It’s possible.
Lower expectations. Always better making the enemy underestimate you.
JellyToast on October 3, 2008 at 12:26 AM
What Sarah finally said to Katie Couric while slamming down her mic and walking off the set to start debate prep.
econavenger on October 3, 2008 at 12:27 AM
I have NEVER in my life ever LOVED a politician before.
I LOVE SARAH PALIN.
When she quoted Reagan, I ….ummm….got….excited.
We are the same age too.
Sapwolf on October 3, 2008 at 12:27 AM
I prefer to celebrate results, not good feelings. I just don’t think she did enough to change votes. I could be wrong.
ClassicCon on October 3, 2008 at 12:29 AM
Greta’s going to re-play O’Reilly vs Frank now….
TheBigOldDog on October 3, 2008 at 12:29 AM
No, but about half of them are lazy asses that want the government to take care of them.
kongzilla on October 3, 2008 at 12:30 AM
Of course they did. Why even post this?
I’ll wait for Gallup and Rasmussen.
Hog Wild on October 3, 2008 at 12:31 AM
No offense to you personally Sam, but downstate hates all of Chicago. The feeling here is that we supply the tax dollars for Chicago corruption. And Blogo has really added fuel to that fire. Dowstate usually goes Republican except for the University areas like Champaign/Urbana. Oh and EIU in Charleston which is near my home.
FiveWays on October 3, 2008 at 12:31 AM
For the record guys, praying the rosary for Sarah worked. =)
MedSchoolCatholic on October 3, 2008 at 12:31 AM
Great, great story.
If you’ve a blog somewhere, or Facebook or Myspace, that needs to go on it.
Hawkins1701 on October 3, 2008 at 12:32 AM
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