Luntz focus group: Palin in a blowout; Update: CBS, CNN polls say Biden won?
posted at 11:25 pm on October 2, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Lest anyone think Luntz cooks these things, his presidential debate FG was basically a wash tilting slightly towards Obama and his FG for C-SPAN shortly after Palin was picked was decidedly chilly towards her.
The electoral math is sufficiently unforgiving that I can’t quite believe this is a gamechanger, but clearly she did as well as anyone could have hoped. Clutch.
Update: At the very least, Palin’s alive for 2012. A nice consolation prize if things don’t pan out this year.
Update: It’s a Democratic year, I guess.
CBS News and Knowledge Networks have conducted a nationally representative poll of 473 uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight’s vice presidential debate…
Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.
Eighteen percent of previously uncommitted percent say they are now committed to the Obama-Biden ticket. Ten percent say they are now committed to McCain-Palin. Seventy-one percent are still uncommitted.
Those results are partial; the good news is that Palin helped herself hugely, with 55 percent now more favorable to her and only 14 percent less so.
Can’t find a link yet for CNN but Taegan Goddard says they have it 51/36 for Greasy Joe.
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While they all agreed she won/did well, I’m concerned that very few said it would change their vote.
Hannibal Smith on October 2, 2008 at 11:26 PM
We still have a month Allah! An uphill climb to be sure, but one that can still be climbed. Steel yourself Man!
sophiesmom on October 2, 2008 at 11:26 PM
we’ll see….I still think they are oversampling democrats because of Operation Chaos….will it be enough who knows?
There is one poll that matters in november….we’ll meet at dawn.
sven10077 on October 2, 2008 at 11:27 PM
This may or may not be a gamechanger, either way the polls won’t move much until, say, tues. …
/which, iirc, is the next prez debate — John best have been taking notes tonite!
Buckaroo on October 2, 2008 at 11:27 PM
Yeah, the reaction was pretty positive there.
carbon_footprint on October 2, 2008 at 11:27 PM
Andrew Sullivan: Biden was “dreadful” while Palin “steam-rolled him”.
amerpundit on October 2, 2008 at 11:27 PM
4 to 1 said they had moved; the rest were suposedly undecied. If she moves undecideds 4 to 1, McCain will get about a three point bounce which will put him back to within 2 or 3 nationally. He just needs to keep it close.
sophiesmom on October 2, 2008 at 11:27 PM
Second look at Michigan?
Mark1971 on October 2, 2008 at 11:27 PM
Im feeling more positive. NOw Johnny Mac needs to blast Obama in the next debate!
becki51758 on October 2, 2008 at 11:28 PM
The CBS and CNN snap polls have Biden winning.
johnt on October 2, 2008 at 11:28 PM
The electoral math is sufficiently unforgiving that I can’t quite believe this is a gamechanger
Really Allah? I am shocked by this; just shocked. You can’t quite believe? who would have thought such a thing?
unseen on October 2, 2008 at 11:28 PM
Yep.
If anything, she made a case for 2012.
lorien1973 on October 2, 2008 at 11:28 PM
“amerpundit on October 2, 2008 at 11:27 PM”
sully must REALLY hate greasy joe!
:-)
Buckaroo on October 2, 2008 at 11:28 PM
Ok, now poll all the other MSM networks and see how their opinions are trending. Can’t cherrypick the news. Any voter who mainly goes to Fox News for information is going to vote Repub anyway.
ClassicCon on October 2, 2008 at 11:28 PM
Oh yeah, you had to bring up the polls… dang. I was feeling pretty positive about McCain’s chances, then there is that darn electoral college again.
petunia on October 2, 2008 at 11:28 PM
Andrew Sullivan though she won; we’ll we know why, because she was more of man than Biden!
sophiesmom on October 2, 2008 at 11:28 PM
But both polls show Palin beating expectations by almost 90%.
johnt on October 2, 2008 at 11:29 PM
I actually agree with Luntz-ites: Sarah kicked his ass
Biden looked like he was coming off a Bad Drunk, and kept looking around for the nearest bottle of Dewars
Janos Hunyadi on October 2, 2008 at 11:29 PM
Get clip from FOX with Rove pointing all Bidens fibs/lies
KBird on October 2, 2008 at 11:29 PM
Oh, and let’s stop talking about 2012; we have an 08 election to win!
sophiesmom on October 2, 2008 at 11:30 PM
Biden looked like he was coming off a Bad Drunk, and kept looking around for the nearest bottle of Dewars
Janos Hunyadi on October 2, 2008 at 11:29 PM
biden didn’t even know what article of the consitution he was talking about. Bush bush bush. Bush isn’t running.
unseen on October 2, 2008 at 11:30 PM
Admitting the obvious… ? Just believe man, just believe. It’s a game changer.
Mcguyver on October 2, 2008 at 11:30 PM
Bring your dimpled chads, your pregnant chads, your hanging chads yearning to be free..
Lily on October 2, 2008 at 11:30 PM
And any viewer on CNN is mostly likely voting Democrat!
sophiesmom on October 2, 2008 at 11:31 PM
Allahpundit………………. why not take a poll?
Seven Percent Solution on October 2, 2008 at 11:31 PM
I hope these guys are right. I saw it as a tie.
I hope the ladies heart Sarah. We’ll see with the polls. At least they won’t have Sarah Palin to kick around anymore.
Mojave Mark on October 2, 2008 at 11:31 PM
I am watching CNN now. Is Alex Castellanos trying to grow a mullet?
Mark1971 on October 2, 2008 at 11:32 PM
It was hers to win or lose (says a lady in the video)?
I smell a setup. Fox probably felt the heat after the last focus group thought Obama won.
barry norris on October 2, 2008 at 11:32 PM
It’s heartening that at least so many in that group viewed Palin so favorably. Sometimes posting on other forums FULL of left-wingers gets a bit disheartening at times. It’s overwhelming. Their Palin Derangement Syndrome is at such a high level that it makes my disdain with Obama seem like a love affair for the man.
Yakko77 on October 2, 2008 at 11:32 PM
Hmmm could operation chaos really make a 5-7 point difference. I’m not that great at math but wouldn’t that have to mean the were over estimating Democrats by 10% or so? And can’t they go by current registration rather than the Primary vote. I don’t know where they get the ratios but that is an interesting thought.
petunia on October 2, 2008 at 11:32 PM
And? What about MSNBC? ABC? CBS? NBC? PBS? I bet they all say Biden won, and those odds are not in our favor. My point is that she needed to do well enough to win over more fans besides the home team. I don’t think she did.
ClassicCon on October 2, 2008 at 11:33 PM
I thought she did marvelous! I don’t regret for one minute that I change parties this year. I never believed in polls. When Bush won the first time and second. The polls always favored the Democrat. I kept telling my husband they were wrong. Polls mean nothing to me. Is that how we live our ordinary lives? I don’t think so. I feel the polls are made to put fear in us. Just like they are doing now with this so called Bail Out.
sheebe on October 2, 2008 at 11:34 PM
Achmidinejad is keeping his fingers crossed for an Obama win.
Saltysam on October 2, 2008 at 11:35 PM
I don’t think all the Chaos voters went home….and there is no good plumb of how many there were because the newsies got caught up in trying to portray it as Obamicans or RUMAs…..
like I said I think they are still running if being honest on an inflated donk base number….look at the surge in GOP ID last month….nothing in this race has met normal CW….
we’ll see.
sven10077 on October 2, 2008 at 11:35 PM
No doubt, the Arctic Fox took a bite outta Joe. “Can I call you ‘Joe’?” But it wasn’t a knockout. By Monday the polls will be closer but Mac has to put Obambi down for the count.
Wouldn’t it have been hilarious if Biden had called Bambi “Osama”? ha!
Tony737 on October 2, 2008 at 11:36 PM
yup…how could they not see Scranton’s humility, bravery, dedication, and generosity?
sven10077 on October 2, 2008 at 11:37 PM
Now its time to relaunch the campaign and shuttle sarah through PA, OH and west to Nevada and Colorado…
We were down 7-0 in the fifth, after her Grand Slam, its 7-4, still in the fifth and the crowd is back into it. We are in the ballgame!
TIme to talk about McCain having one more mission: Bring peace, prosperity and security back to this nation.
joepub on October 2, 2008 at 11:37 PM
Can I start asking this again??? Is Sarah the newReagan? After all, she is really the only candidate for it. Good was that Reaganesque. Reagan was always kinda outta it in interviews I believe (I was a baby when he was Prez), but rocked the debates and speeches. I think that our Sarah is the same way. I still think that JMac will lose, but our Sarah should be taking lots of trips to Iowa and New Hampshire during the next four years. :)
Illinidiva on October 2, 2008 at 11:37 PM
She met my expectations. She was f*ckin’ awesome.
Spirit of 1776 on October 2, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Biden did mix up Obama with Osama at one point. A minor screw up (Freudian slip?) but it made me laugh.
Mr. Joe on October 2, 2008 at 11:38 PM
I thought where Biden scored was in painting McCain as Bush III. She responded to that a couple of times, but McCain needs to hammer on this point that he is not Bush. Where Palin scored was personality and I think it showed in the Luntz crowd. She has the kind of straight talk McCain can only dream of and he should exploit the hell out of it.
Kafir on October 2, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Palin/Jindal ‘12
hell, how about Palin/Huckabee ‘12
or Palin/Romney (the Coulter ticket?)
Palin/First Dude ‘12
420sniper on October 2, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Her charisma speaking to the people through the camera is Reaganesque and off the charts.
It can’t help but move polls in a major way.
Starlink on October 2, 2008 at 11:38 PM
barry norris on October 2, 2008 at 11:32 PM
Yeah, the thing I like about Luntz is how he is able to keep all those people from leaking to the press about their little conspiracy.
He runs a tight ship.
Saltysam on October 2, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Dick Morris said Palin won. Uh-oh.
lorien1973 on October 2, 2008 at 11:39 PM
Morris just bitch slapped Colmes…. OMG! Finally somebody punched that creep right in the mouth and it turned out to be Dick Morris….
TheBigOldDog on October 2, 2008 at 11:39 PM
Dick Morris just killed Colmes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mcguyver on October 2, 2008 at 11:40 PM
Morris also said Colmes had no brains. That was hilarious.
Mark1971 on October 2, 2008 at 11:40 PM
Dick Morris BEATS DOWN Alan Colmes that made Newt Gingrich’s beat down look like a love letter.
Marcus on October 2, 2008 at 11:40 PM
did anyone else just see Morris BUTT RAPE ALAN GAPER COLMES?
blatantblue on October 2, 2008 at 11:40 PM
Yes, I’m flushed and smokin’ a cigarette myself.
Saltysam on October 2, 2008 at 11:40 PM
hahahaha!
alan is like a school boy
blatantblue on October 2, 2008 at 11:40 PM
The average American who sees a channel or poll saying that Biden won is going to know that the people there are smoking crack dipped in Kool-Aid.
econavenger on October 2, 2008 at 11:41 PM
Dick Morris just eviscerated Alan Comes. Somebody finally punched that creep in the mouth (metaphorically). That will be a YouTube hit for weeks to come….Wow!
TheBigOldDog on October 2, 2008 at 11:41 PM
Ed’s coming up on Hugh Hewitt.
http://am1280thepatriot.townhall.com/
Canadian Infidel on October 2, 2008 at 11:41 PM
Allah…for once..unclinch and gush over Sarah. It’ll be okay. :-)
SouthernGent on October 2, 2008 at 11:41 PM
Let not your heart be troubled. He might as well have said the sky is blue.
CurtZHP on October 2, 2008 at 11:41 PM
Why did you have to put that thought in my head….
TheBigOldDog on October 2, 2008 at 11:41 PM
I hope someone has that up soon, and links it here so we can watch.
wise_man on October 2, 2008 at 11:42 PM
Palin/Southerngent 2012
SouthernGent on October 2, 2008 at 11:42 PM
Lol. I’m flushed myself. :)
But I started drinking after the debate to come down enough to sleep tonight.
Spirit of 1776 on October 2, 2008 at 11:42 PM
So a majority in the poll saw a tie or a Palin victory. That’s a good sign.
DaveS on October 2, 2008 at 11:42 PM
You bad old dog, you know I had nothing to do with it.
Saltysam on October 2, 2008 at 11:43 PM
A very small, quick-response sample by two networks not exactly known for fairness. We’ll see how things go over the next few days.
amerpundit on October 2, 2008 at 11:43 PM
Who the HELL do CNN and CBS poll? What a bunch of cranky old bastards that group must be.
jimmy the notable on October 2, 2008 at 11:43 PM
“Illinidiva on October 2, 2008 at 11:37 PM”
as one who wasn’t a baby when he was president i can assure you that he is unique. one man in many millions, the right man at a critical time for our country. Saracuda is Saracuda, nothing miore, nothing less. Let us work to get her to become the first woman veep, and then after that the first female prez — and that’s just as good as ronnie could hope for, right?
Buckaroo on October 2, 2008 at 11:43 PM
I am getting a freign national tilt vibe here…..
seriously they should restrict voting for two hours to US IPs
sven10077 on October 2, 2008 at 11:43 PM
And even a tie is a Palin victory given how the media was trying to make her out as stupid.
Canadian Infidel on October 2, 2008 at 11:43 PM
lol i am still totally real life loling over the morris pillaging of alan colmes
blatantblue on October 2, 2008 at 11:43 PM
473 voters get to decide a national trend? EPIC FAIL.
SouthernGent on October 2, 2008 at 11:44 PM
CNN polls always favor the Democrat.
SoulGlo on October 2, 2008 at 11:44 PM
Palin/Morris 2012
econavenger on October 2, 2008 at 11:45 PM
Non-sense. Polls mean NOTHING, especially online post debate polls.
Spirit of 1776 on October 2, 2008 at 11:45 PM
I am afraid you are the one hitting the pipe. Independents by definition will follow the masses in their decisions. If pop culture/MSM say Biden won, they will sheepishly agree while claiming that was their original choice to begin with.
ClassicCon on October 2, 2008 at 11:45 PM
Ed’s on now.
http://am1280thepatriot.townhall.com/
Canadian Infidel on October 2, 2008 at 11:45 PM
well, I”m convinced the MSM polls are rigged at this point. No way in hell any legit poll would have what CBS and CNN are showing
jp on October 2, 2008 at 11:47 PM
Dailykos has a “freep list” of polls to spam. Those polls are meaningless.
p0s3r on October 2, 2008 at 11:47 PM
CNN’s “poll” is as representative as their debate panel of “experts”. Both are a total joke.
aquaviva on October 2, 2008 at 11:48 PM
Those polls are what Liberal Media talking heads will point to, to make claim Biden won
jp on October 2, 2008 at 11:48 PM
Palin set the stage for Mac, perhaps it was strategery not to whap Biden about Fan and Fred, but rather to leave it open for Biden to lie his ass off about Obarfo sounding the warning years back.
McCain has a clear shot now at knocking the shit out of Obiscuit on that issue.
Bishop on October 2, 2008 at 11:48 PM
What about them? Their audiences are likely to skew liberal, too.
That doesn’t mean their polls are wrong, but citing MORE liberal networks isn’t the best way to dispute the fact that another one’s poll isn’t also overwhelmed by liberals.
Kensington on October 2, 2008 at 11:48 PM
The CNN and CBS polls are phone polls. I suspect they are oversampling democrats though. The important number for Plain is that she beat expectations handedly.
johnt on October 2, 2008 at 11:48 PM
I’ll be listening to Levin tonight, no doubt.
Bishop on October 2, 2008 at 11:49 PM
I was just looking at the numbers. I was thinking the same thing. Given how few people even participate, it’s amazing how anyone thinks they are relevant.
Guardian on October 2, 2008 at 11:50 PM
So, the astroturf talking point seems to be “She did really well, but McCain’s still gonna lose, so don’t bother being excited or going out to vote.”
You guys are doing Mr. Axelrod proud. I know he had the “Biden crushed the rube” statements ready to roll, and you guys have adapted admirably.
funky chicken on October 2, 2008 at 11:50 PM
Leave it to AllahPundit to add “CBS and CNN polls say Biden won?” when these insta-polls are meaningless and spammed well in advance.
Here’s another red UPDATE: “FoxNews and Drudge Report poll say Sarah won, by a three to one factor?!?”
Marcus on October 2, 2008 at 11:50 PM
Oh wow, thanks for the clarification for me, johnt.
Spirit of 1776 on October 2, 2008 at 11:51 PM
LOL @ The Obama spin saying this debate doesn’t matter…BUT…BIDEN WON!
SouthernGent on October 2, 2008 at 11:51 PM
Everyone of us should vote in those “sham” polls. The spin war matters.
SAZMD on October 2, 2008 at 11:51 PM
One more thing about the polls: where are they? Seriously, I decided to go over to CBS news and see if I could vote, too, and I couldn’t even find a poll?
Yet Kos is posting links to it? That might cause some slant, don’t you think? I’m no dummy, but I couldn’t find them.
On the other hand, I went to Drudge, and the poll was right on his front page. How about those results?
Kensington on October 2, 2008 at 11:51 PM
Fixed that for you. In other words epic fail and rote bias.
Mcguyver on October 2, 2008 at 11:51 PM
Remember, Rasmussen said McCain and Obama basically broke even when everyone else said it was an Obama landslide. If Rasmussen says Biden won in a rout, then we’re screwed.
Damian G. on October 2, 2008 at 11:51 PM
I tend to think that if you had a transcript of the debate, you might conclude that Biden “won.” If you got in Braille maybe. But most Americans won’t be grading by the transcript, Braille or any other format. He made numerous unanswered attacks, and she missed some good opportunities.
That said, anyone who thinks he really won is daft. Palin is alive again and I hope that the McCain campaign now makes it its objective to OVEREXPOSE her. I don’t think they can do it in only four weeks, but they should try.
CK MacLeod on October 2, 2008 at 11:51 PM
Eh, I see your CBS poll and raise you a Drudge.
Bishop on October 2, 2008 at 11:52 PM
I don’t think she did.
ClassicCon on October 2, 2008
Bull! She DID win by a landslide and also connected with real people. Palin jumped over the hedge created by the mainstream media and idiots like Alan Colmes. The American people will see this and vote accordingly. I would SO love to see a debate between Obama and Palin, that would probably make me laugh outrageously.
JonPrichard on October 2, 2008 at 11:52 PM
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