Luntz focus group: Palin in a blowout; Update: CBS, CNN polls say Biden won?

posted at 11:25 pm on October 2, 2008 by Allahpundit

Lest anyone think Luntz cooks these things, his presidential debate FG was basically a wash tilting slightly towards Obama and his FG for C-SPAN shortly after Palin was picked was decidedly chilly towards her.

The electoral math is sufficiently unforgiving that I can’t quite believe this is a gamechanger, but clearly she did as well as anyone could have hoped. Clutch.

Update: At the very least, Palin’s alive for 2012. A nice consolation prize if things don’t pan out this year.

Update: It’s a Democratic year, I guess.

CBS News and Knowledge Networks have conducted a nationally representative poll of 473 uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight’s vice presidential debate…

Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.

Eighteen percent of previously uncommitted percent say they are now committed to the Obama-Biden ticket. Ten percent say they are now committed to McCain-Palin. Seventy-one percent are still uncommitted.

Those results are partial; the good news is that Palin helped herself hugely, with 55 percent now more favorable to her and only 14 percent less so.

Can’t find a link yet for CNN but Taegan Goddard says they have it 51/36 for Greasy Joe.


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I wish people would stop calling these silly exercises “debates”: they are NOT debates!

A debate takes up a single question, and both sides are given equal time to argue two sides of the single question. To make the event work properly, both sides are given the question(s) well in advance so that they can come armed with proper arguments and evidence supporting their position. These events are nothing like that, and so they are shallow examples of “ambush journalism” with no real structure, no opportunity to properly define a position, and consequently they are largely pointless and much less illuminating than a real debate.

The Democrats don’t want to debate the issues, as most of their positions are indefensible (killing babies, starving the country for energy, increasing taxes, promoting payoffs, etc.), and the MainStream Mediocres will continue to let them get away with this.

landlines on October 3, 2008 at 3:25 AM

CBS News and Knowledge Networks have conducted a nationally representative poll of 473 uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight’s vice presidential debate…

And how were those “uncommitted voters” chosen? It would be very easy to choose more voters leaning towards Obama, so that the post-debate results would favor Obama/Biden.

daryl_herbert on October 3, 2008 at 3:43 AM

McCain has the ultimate material for an ad on “judgment” against Biden—
 
From the AP via MSNBC
 
Expectations low, Palin scores in debate
 

…He [Biden] also accused Palin of distorting Obama’s record, and said: “Let’s get straight who’s been right and wrong” on Iraq.
 

“John McCain has been dead wrong,” Biden said before trying his hand at folksiness. “As my mother would say, I love him but he’s been dead wrong.”

 
Biden not only voted for the war and then let CNN headlines dictate his position, he also said the exact same thing about Petraeus, “He is dead flat wrong”
 
-Oh, what a commercial that will make…”so everyone’s wrong but you, Joe? Just like your idea for the partition of Iraq against Iraqi’s wishes and now this…you know, Joe, they’re doing amazing things in psychiatry these days…completely confidential…”
 
 
Biden: Petraeus ‘dead flat wrong’ on Iraq
 
Back from overseas, senator indicates Democrats will persist in pullout date
 
If someone already thought of this and posted it, my apologies…I didn’t read every post.

Peace_Sells... on October 3, 2008 at 3:49 AM

I agree with the polls by the lamestream meadia.

They’re in the tank for obama.

They want him to win, so they’re trying to sway votes his way.

We know better. Gov. Palin kicked his geriatric a**.

madmonkphotog on October 3, 2008 at 4:43 AM

In other news,

What’s in a (Secret Service code) name

The Secret Service agents who guard the four candidates and their families have the job of giving them code names, which the Washington Post is now reporting. And leaving aside the questionable publicising of supposedly secret codes, the names are surprisingly relevant to the personalities of Obama, McCain, Biden, and Palin.

Obama is named Renegade, a nice allusion to the initially insurgent candidacy he mounted last year against overwhelming favourite Hillary Clinton. His wife Michelle is Renaissance, a fitting code for a woman whose personal style has sparked frequent comparisons to the heyday of Jackie Kennedy.

McCain’s name is Phoenix, which sounds like a clever double-shot at his home base in Arizona and his rising-from-the-ashes victory in the Democratic primary. His wife Cindy is dubbed Parasol – not that she’s been spotted carrying a ruffly umbrella, but her fashion tastes do run on the ritzier side. (If it’s not already apparent, each family chooses one letter of the alphabet for their Secret Service codes.)

Biden’s code word is Celtic, a likely reference to his Irish roots as opposed to any fandom of Boston basketball. His wife Jill’s name has not yet been reported, but she is a college professor who spends a lot of time on campus, so there’s a lot to work with.

Palin has perhaps the cleverest name of all: Denali, the name of Alaska’s lovely national park but also of the natural-gas pipeline that major oil companies are building in her home state in a bid to undercut her authority. One wonders what she makes of the symbolism there.

Speaking of symbolism, Todd Palin’s code name is Driller. Yes, he works on oil rigs, but it’s still a little bit funny.

Call me a pervert if you must but Todd’s name did indeed make me laugh.

Yakko77 on October 3, 2008 at 5:55 AM

CBS and CNN are anti American, communist networks. Biden could have barfed on his shoes and they still would declared him the winner. They, like Michigan are lost causes. It is not surprising that the leftist mainstream media is still tanking for Obama. They can spew whatever lies they want but unlike the Couric and Gibson interviews, the American people saw the entire debate and they can draw their own conclusions without the bias and lies interjected by the media.

Palin kicked his old dumb ass!

rplat on October 3, 2008 at 6:46 AM

Todd Palin’s code name is Driller.

If I were Todd Palin, that is exactly the code name I would want.

Kevin71 on October 3, 2008 at 6:49 AM

I did catch a couple of minutes of the show at CBS after the debate. Bryon Pitts, who I am sure is impartial, ran the instant poll with a group of undecideds using Nelson technology. Then he showed the most “amazing results” from parts of the debate, of course the ones showing favorable reactions to Sen. Biden going up and Gov. Palin going down. The most telling was when Sen. Biden bashed the Iraq War by contrasting the amount of money spent there to the money spent in Afghanistan. The favorables went skyrocketing, but as soon as the cameras cut to Gov. Palin, and before she even started speaking the favorables drop like a rock. Even Bryon had to indicate that the group was “slightly” leaning towards voting for Barack Obama for president. Nope, no agenda being driven at CBS.

And that telephone poll? CBS included a whopping 473 people in its sample size. Might as well single out one person at your work and ask them their opinion and then release the results as an indication of which candidate the entire site thinks won the debate.

scrub_oak on October 3, 2008 at 6:52 AM

I know this sounds reflexive, but I have my doubts about the CNN and CBS polls. I can’t help it, if they said day was light and night was dark, I would still question their validity.

The mask has come off some of these MSM institutions so completely this year, they are so obviously biased, that I find myself having a difficult time believing much of anything they say.

I think Sarah did very well. She was clear and concise. She did not speak like a typical politician. She really did seem to be an individual with strong ideas of her own. Biden was very polished, blamed everything on Bush and attacked McCAin. Same old same old.

Terrye on October 3, 2008 at 6:53 AM

Heh. This explains why my dad went to sleep early. So much for “I wanna watch Palin make a fool of herself” old man.

Darth Executor on October 3, 2008 at 7:04 AM

Palin came off as dumb as a bag of nails last night. She picked and chose which questions to even acknowledge and even then she couldn’t avoid slip-ups.

Typhonsentra on October 3, 2008 at 7:12 AM

What I found sickening was Biden’s bringing up his wife death. Don’t get me wrong, that a brutal thing to have happen. But I’ve always thought is was the peak of sleeziness for a politician to bring that up UNLESS it’s for a specific political issue (like tougher laws against drunk driving, etc). McCain brings up his POW experience sure, but again, he does it not to gain pity but to reinforce his arguement about why he went into politics in the first place.

Enough with politicians tearing up on stage…it’s sick.

Waterboy on October 3, 2008 at 7:14 AM

Palin came off as dumb as a bag of nails last night. She picked and chose which questions to even acknowledge and even then she couldn’t avoid slip-ups.

Typhonsentra on October 3, 2008 at 7:12 AM

So….when Obama and every other politician since the Ancient Greeks does that they are dumb also?

Waterboy on October 3, 2008 at 7:16 AM

I’m not believing any of these MSM-affiliated polls until I see some confirming data from Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. a few days from now.

petefrt on October 3, 2008 at 7:26 AM

What’s important, guys, is that we MUST do a better job of influencing the news cycle. Someone needs to make a list of Joe Biden’s gaffes (I counted at least 5 good ones) and run with the idea that Biden did poorly…

When the debate performance is close like this, media opinion on how the candidates did will DEFINITELY have an influence on public opinion. Palin didn’t hit it out of the park last night, but I thought she did a more effective job of attacking Obama and defending McCain than Biden did attacking McCain and defending Obama…. And that was the real purpose of this debate!

Outlander on October 3, 2008 at 7:28 AM

I also noticed that The Washington (com)Post, The New York Times, The Seattle Times and a couple other communist propaganda rags are attempting to spin for Biden. They’re so far in the tank that it is hopeless to expect them to print any truth or objectivity. Fortunately, the mainstream media’s credibility resides several leagues below whale manure so they’ll only impact their left wing cult readers. Just consider the source and move on.

rplat on October 3, 2008 at 7:33 AM

Palin came off as dumb as a bag of nails last night. She picked and chose which questions to even acknowledge and even then she couldn’t avoid slip-ups.

Typhonsentra on October 3, 2008 at 7:12 AM

By God you appear to be a person that knows a little about being “dumb as a bag of nails”.

rplat on October 3, 2008 at 7:35 AM

we MUST do a better job of influencing the news cycle. Someone needs to make a list of Joe Biden’s gaffes (I counted at least 5 good ones) and run with the idea that Biden did poorly…

Here’s a long list of Biden “lies” from Ace

JiangxiDad on October 3, 2008 at 7:41 AM

this tells us more about cbs and cnn than it does about who won the debate.

what dishonest, hyperpartisan shills. why are they so dishonest with THEMSELVES?

ikez78 on October 3, 2008 at 7:41 AM

Well, after taking a look at this morning’s Real Clear Politics, articles it’s obvious that the MSM is totally biased and in the tank; Complete blinders on as to how the debate was percieved by the American people. Esp. Bob Shrum!What an elitist pig. A bunch of overstuffed Washington pigs defending one of their own. Sarah brought it last night directly to the people- good for her!

anniekc on October 3, 2008 at 7:44 AM

why are they so dishonest with THEMSELVES?

ikez78 on October 3, 2008 at 7:41 AM

The mind numbed Dem. followers may be dishonest with themselves, but how is the MSM? They’re orchestrating the election of their candidate to further American socialism. It’s deceitful and traitorous, but how dishonest?

JiangxiDad on October 3, 2008 at 7:44 AM

I’m not believing any of these MSM-affiliated polls until I see some confirming data from Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. a few days from now.

What are you going to do when those polls don’t go your way? Dismiss those too? Claim “liberal MSM bias”?

cornfedbubba on October 3, 2008 at 7:52 AM

Have no fear, if there is a poll unfavorable to Sarah, Allah will find it and find inspiration from it.

Fuquay Steve on October 3, 2008 at 7:53 AM

If you guys spent 1/10 the time going after Obama as you do the “liberal MSM,” McCain actually might win this. This is further proof how the conservative movement has completely lost focus of the end goal.

Breaking news: the media aren’t running for President.

cornfedbubba on October 3, 2008 at 7:54 AM

Why do so many of you get into a lather over the liberal press doing skewed polling to help their hand picked candidates?

They skew the numbers no matter how outrageously to get the results they want. That is a fact of life just get used to it.

Jdripper on October 3, 2008 at 8:26 AM

The CNN poll just shows that people who are ignorant of politics tend to believe media lies about how wonderful Democrats are. So what.

NoDonkey on October 3, 2008 at 8:29 AM

The polls are made up in such a way that dems are the vast majority of respondent on purpose. They should not be believed.

dtrumpet on October 3, 2008 at 8:40 AM

Breaking news: the media aren’t running for President.

cornfedbubba on October 3, 2008 at 7:54 AM

…no, they’re just trying to get their guy elected!

dominigan on October 3, 2008 at 8:48 AM

So Biden couldn’t win a debate against a woman who is as ‘dumb as a bucket of nails’. That says a whole lot about the quality of the dem ticket. This was the same meme used against Pres Bush, and funny he won two Presidential elections against those oh so smart and elitist candidates and even got all his major legislation through a hostile Dem Congress who claimed he was stupid and irrelevant.
Keep drinking that koolaid.
I don’t believe those polls because they don’t release their sample info. Remember after the McCain debate Matthews was interviewing his own daughter, without telling anyone, and the poll where Code Pinko members were classified as ‘independents’. The Frank Luntz group had almost all members raise their hands saying Palin had basically won, but they hedged their answers to the other questions (probably wanting to tell the pollsters what they thought the pollsters wanted to hear).

eaglewingz08 on October 3, 2008 at 8:56 AM

With every one of these focus groups that I’ve watched, I have trouble believing that the people were actually undecided.

Think about it, it’s less than 2 months before an election and these people are supposedly sitting on the fence So we know they are not strong decision makers. What on earth was said last night by either candidate that would not only cause these people to finally make up their minds but also make the very strong statements they make toward one candidate or the other?

Indecisive people don’t become strongly decisive after 90 minutes of a debate such as the two we’ve seen – well unless they’ve been on planet Mars for the last 2 years and heard nothing.

katablog.com on October 3, 2008 at 9:19 AM

cornfedbubba: and if McCain stopped working against our efforts, he might actually win too. It seems like every time McCain has an wide open opportunity, he ditches it. Last example was the porky senate bailout bill.

katablog.com on October 3, 2008 at 9:22 AM

Palin came off as dumb as a bag of nails last night. She picked and chose which questions to even acknowledge and even then she couldn’t avoid slip-ups.

Really? And just were those slip-ups? You mean the ones quoting Obama’s record that were untrue? Oh no, sorry, that was Biden.

katablog.com on October 3, 2008 at 9:24 AM

Palin came off as dumb as a bag of nails last night. She picked and chose which questions to even acknowledge and even then she couldn’t avoid slip-ups.

Typhonsentra on October 3, 2008 at 7:12 AM

Here we go. Don’t use examples or anything, just the generalization of someone, always the simple conservative thinking, dumb. And it’s bag of hammers you twit. Not nails.

She answered the questions. You get that dummy? She answered the questions. She stated that she was going to answer the questions the way she wanted to, not necessarily the way Gwen “I’llfill” ballots for Obama, or Plugs wanted her to. Unlike the way Joe answered the questions the way he wanted. Like Cheney being the most dangerous vice-president ever, right after he stated that he doesn’t know what he has done. Followed with his job description of what a VP does, and got it wrong.

I would like to take my hammer to your nail.

JeffinOrlando on October 3, 2008 at 9:42 AM

Our media is truly, truly Pravda West.

Let’s Roll.

ex-Democrat on October 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM

Update: At the very least, Palin’s alive for 2012. A nice consolation prize if when things don’t pan out this year.

Don’t go wobbly on me, Allah.

ManlyRash on October 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM

Claim “liberal MSM bias”? – cornfedbubba on October 3, 2008 at 7:52 AM

No need to claim what is self-evident, bubba.

ManlyRash on October 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM

Palin came off as dumb as a bag of nails last night. She picked and chose which questions to even acknowledge and even then she couldn’t avoid slip-ups.

Typhonsentra on October 3, 2008 at 7:12 AM

I didn’t think trolls got up this early…usually they are sleeping off their hangover, after getting spanked by a girl from Alaska…poor Biden, decades in the senate; and a moose hunting, rookie woman from Alaska took him to the shed.
Biden is not ready to step in a Pres. if he can’t handle a rookie…the weakest performance by a pro I have ever seen, absolutely embarrassing for Biden. And the mistakes he made, the factual mistakes. Imagine if he was meeting with a leader of a country and he made those kinds of mistakes…disaster, my God he was terrible.

right2bright on October 3, 2008 at 11:37 AM

I didn’t think trolls got up this early…usually they are sleeping off their hangover, after getting spanked by a girl from Alaska

right2bright on October 3, 2008 at 11:37 AM

A troll would stick around to admire his handiwork. I think what we have here is a sock puppet (or whatever else you want to call an operative dropping talking points wherever he can).

Count to 10 on October 3, 2008 at 11:41 AM

CBS and CNN polls of Independents taken in South Side of Chicago.

marklmail on October 3, 2008 at 11:44 AM

Luntz makes me wanna hurl.
right2bright on October 3, 2008 at 11:37 AM made me feel a lot better. Even FNC was pushing the line that Biden could step in and be Prez. NO WAY.
I’m not good at riding the roller coaster, hearing/reading all the positive comments and then reading Krauthammer, hearing about the MSM pollz, etc. It’s pretty bad when Dick Morris is the only one reading the tea leaves in McCain/Palin’s favor.

Christine on October 3, 2008 at 1:07 PM

What about CNN focus group.

from Megan McArdle

Soledad O’Brien polls the 32 “persuadables” by asking them to indicate, by a show of hands, who they thought won. She calls the vote for Biden “overwhelming”. The magic of Tivo allows us to freeze frame and count: 11 or 12 for Palin, 12 or 13 for Biden (some people are hard to see). Thanks, Soledad, for giving credence to everyone who thinks women are bad at Math.

phreshone on October 3, 2008 at 2:31 PM

Regarding Soledad’s poor math skills, just remember many liberals will twist any voting procedure if possible to their own perverted purposes. Remember Nancy Peelousy’s scheduling the adjournment vote this August to avoid voting on drill baby drill? I doubt that she had the votes for the adjournment but she called the measure approved as the dems high-tailed it out of town. Thankfully we now have technology that can review the calls of biased left wing DNC agitpropers (commonly called ‘journalists) to show their deceit and manipulation of the democratic process.

eaglewingz08 on October 3, 2008 at 4:46 PM

So many comments, so few buzz ups. Please people don’t forget to buzz the story if you like it. The button is right there at the end of the post. The Huffs and other Dem sites are dominating social sites like digg, yahoo buzz and technorati. We should change that.

arma_virumque on October 3, 2008 at 5:58 PM

. It’s pretty bad when Dick Morris is the only one reading the tea leaves in McCain/Palin’s favor.

Christine on October 3, 2008 at 1:07 PM

If you leave out RINOs, DEMs, and the Hannity crowd you are left with Dick Morris so it is not all bad

The other crowd doesn’t get airtime. The MSM calls them average Americans to distinguish them from elites

CSPAN follows the same weighting as some of the polls quoted on the MSM. CSPAN has three phone lines from DEM, GOP and INDs. This weights the calls unrealistically in favor of DEMs and Independents who are not an equal third of the population. I listened to CSPAN callers a while after the debate and found CSPAN taking multiple DEM calls in a row. They used to use the gimmick if a caller humg up his line would be skipped over to the next party affiliation line as a wierd punishment to others in his category. CSPAN dropped the pretense last night and started overloading DEM / IND callers until I gave up and changed channels

entagor on October 3, 2008 at 11:47 PM

I have a different take on these “polls”. The MSM has spent the last 5+ weeks attempting to make Palin look like an empty headed barbie doll. What people saw in the debate was something completely different. I flipped to CNN after the debate to get their spin and heard just what I expected. Dismissing Palin’s performance, blah, blah, blah. Any average Joe who watched and was impressed with Palin saw, maybe for the first time, “say it ain’t so Joe,” liberal bias in the media. I think people who don’t normally pay alot of attention, saw for themselves, what we’ve known for a long time, in your face bias.

They’re using up their rope and soon will be completely hung.

SoldiersMom on October 4, 2008 at 4:36 AM

Daily Kos: Get Out There and Spam Every Poll

Looking around the web this morning, we see a whole lot of silly, meaningless Internet polls asking who won last night’s debate—and in quite a few of them, Joe Biden seems to be doing quite well, even coming out ahead of Sarah Palin.

Curious, isn’t it? Why would Biden be ahead of Palin in so many Internet polls? Were we just imagining that she crushed his hair-plugged head in ways it has never been crushed before?

No. The answer is simple, and it’s the same reason why Ron Paul did so well in online polls while totally failing to reach the general public. The “progressives” and the Kos Kids are going around the web and stacking every poll they can find, in an organized effort to skew the perception of the debate as much as their little blank hearts can manage.

Keemo on October 4, 2008 at 9:00 AM

ABC 13,130,000
NBC 12,820,000
CBS 11,100,000
FOXNEWS 11,098,000
CNN 10,685,000
FOX 4,500,000
MSNBC 4,412,000

This is the official “viewers” list from the VP debate. Notice how FoxNews fell just 2,000 viewers short of the once mighty CBS….

The death of network news is coming; I just hope it happens during my lifetime so that I can throw one hell of a celebration gathering.

Keemo on October 4, 2008 at 9:37 AM

Not exactly on target here but I happened upon the the ABC “FactCheck” of the debate. Instead of pointing out that Biden got McKiernan’s view of a surge in Afghanistan wrong, they point out the Palin got his NAME wrong.

Palin’s couple of stumbles come first and they then skip Biden’s.

Clowns.

OBQuiet on October 4, 2008 at 3:39 PM

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