Hmmm: McCain creeps back to within four in new Gallup

posted at 2:25 pm on October 1, 2008 by Allahpundit

The One led by eight on Monday and by six yesterday. If it’s true that McCain’s chances are at the mercy of the economy, why’s he gaining in the middle of an economic crisis, after an 800-point drop on Wall Street? I’m tempted to call it an outlier — but if it is, how’d he gain five points in the new WaPo poll too? The knee-jerk answer is that he’s riding a wave of residual goodwill from the House GOP’s revolt against the bailout, but (a) passionate opposition to the bailout is cooling, (b) McCain actually took credit for getting a bailout deal done before it was undone, and (c) he’s unambiguously in favor of the Senate bill so the backlash may only have been delayed. (Then again, Obama’s unambiguously in favor too so he shouldn’t reap any political windfall.)

Whatever the cause, America’s coming back, baby! Except, er, in all the states we need to win. Quinnipiac’s numbers actually do look like outliers, but the trends ain’t good even in other polls in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Current pessimism meter reading: Nine, indicating pronounced worries of a landslide and elevated levels of heart-ache in anticipation of tomorrow night’s debate.

Update: Why would anyone care what poll trends look like a month out? Here’s why.


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Allah,
surely you missed the posts (in the Quinnipiac thread) where it was decided that you post negative headlines? You’re doing some serious trend busting…

hippie_chucker on October 1, 2008 at 2:39 PM

Oh but, Allah’s not finished yet. He always likes to show a little optimism right before he flushes whole thing down the sh!tter. I’ve seen this before. He doesn’t believe there is any hope.

FiveWays on October 1, 2008 at 3:49 PM

The current “crisis” is driven by Freddie’s Fannie, not Wall St.
McCain is the experienced Candidate who warned of this crisis several years ago. He and his congressional colleagues rightly sought political reform, and were rebuffed by Barney Frank, et al.
It’s all the rage on U-Toobe.

Randy

williars on October 1, 2008 at 3:50 PM

Woot!

I love polls again!

Until we get another ‘Obama Polling Higher Than Jesus Among Atheists‘ poll.

cntrlfrk on October 1, 2008 at 3:55 PM

I can’t tell if that’s sarcasm or if the bottom’s really dropped out beneath you…. – Grue in the Attic on October 1, 2008 at 3:07 PM

It dropped out. Not only has Allah turned me to the Dark Side, thanks to him I’ve become Emperor Farking Palpatine.

ManlyRash on October 1, 2008 at 4:05 PM

Allah,

No offense, but you’re giving atheists a bad name for being so pessimistic.

MedSchoolCatholic on October 1, 2008 at 4:10 PM

McCain???

Is the guy still running? I thought he threw in the towel weeks ago. He sure fooled me I guess.

rigdown on October 1, 2008 at 2:39 PM

As does a great many things it would seem.

wise_man on October 1, 2008 at 2:44 PM

You are kidding right wise_man?

Come on, if you’re defending McCain’s recent performance then you deserve to be on the losing side. McCain has been sucking slough water for the last few weeks. His campaigning is worthy of a politically correct goof running for class president in Grade 8. All sincere and bi-partisan-like, but refusing to get in the trenches and attack.

He’s never going to win if he’s playing a poor game of defense all day long. Nobody hears his version of events anymore. Obambi controls all the news and McCain looks like a nerdy school kid. Where the fire? Where’s the finger-pointing and naming names? Where’s the backbone?

If McCain doesn’t work hard on stopping the landslide immediately – it’s all over.

rigdown on October 1, 2008 at 4:14 PM

Allah,

No offense, but you’re giving atheists a bad name for being so pessimistic.

MedSchoolCatholic on October 1, 2008 at 4:10 PM

“I came to the conclusion that the optimist thought everything good except the pessimist, and that the pessimist thought everything bad, except himself.”

- G. K. Chesterton

FiveWays on October 1, 2008 at 4:22 PM

Undecideds are the most ignorant voters out there. They do not care about whether McCain was poised for credit one day and not seen as being a participant the next. They are too ignorant to deal with such nuances.

Theses numbers are a result of McCain taking the lead in dealing with this related to Obama — who has done nothing. They know the issues but are too stupid to really take a side on the bailout. So, they like the fact that McCain looked like a leader the past five or six days.

As for the electorals — PA is lost, no real surprise there. Between the corrupt Philadelphia machine and Fast Eddie Rendell in Harrisburg (nvm that he is a Hillary supporter) Obama has PA bought. Ohio and Virginia are the two key states for McCain if he wants any chance. He’ll win Florida handily and needs either Nevada or Colorado.

This landslide talk is insane. If McCain leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Indiana by more than 3 points each, it will be 51-53% for him and north of 280 electoral votes.

grdred944 on October 1, 2008 at 4:34 PM

“I came to the conclusion that the optimist thought everything good except the pessimist, and that the pessimist thought everything bad, except himself.”
- G. K. Chesterton

FiveWays on October 1, 2008 at 4:22 PM

“It would be unfair to omit altogether from the list the mysterious but suggestive definition said to have been given by a little girl, ‘An optimist is a man who looks after your eyes, and a pessimist is a man who looks after your feet.’”

- G. K. Chesterton

Rosmerta on October 1, 2008 at 4:43 PM

I think “undecided” are people reluctant to vote for Obama and too shy to say it, for fear of being labelled racist. The MSM has made it very uncool to vote/be a Republican. In the UK we called it the “shy Tory” effect; during the Thatcher years many people wouldn’t admit to voting for her even though she had landslide victories.

Fortunata on October 1, 2008 at 4:54 PM

“It would be unfair to omit altogether from the list the mysterious but suggestive definition said to have been given by a little girl, ‘An optimist is a man who looks after your eyes, and a pessimist is a man who looks after your feet.’”

- G. K. Chesterton

Rosmerta on October 1, 2008 at 4:43 PM

Let Chesterton expand on that:

“An optimist is a man who looks after your eyes, and a pessimist is a man who looks after your feet.” I am not sure that this is not the best definition of all. There is even a sort of allegorical truth in it. For there might, perhaps, be a profitable distinction drawn between that more dreary thinker who thinks merely of our contact with the earth from moment to moment, and that happier thinker who considers rather our primary power of vision and of choice of road.

- G. K. Chesterton

FiveWays on October 1, 2008 at 4:58 PM

Not only has Allah turned me to the Dark Side, thanks to him I’ve become Emperor Farking Palpatine.

ManlyRash on October 1, 2008 at 4:05 PM

Wow, not even Vader with the chance for redemption? Jeez.

So what does that make me, I wonder? ;)

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on October 1, 2008 at 5:00 PM

Slick Willie is on the loose.

sonnyspats1 on October 1, 2008 at 5:10 PM

This is another MSM plot. They are putting McCain within striking distance now, but then after the debate they’ll say Palin failed miserably and push Obama back up to ten and declare the race over.

Don’t buy this bs, keep fighting regardless of what the polls say.

El_Terrible on October 1, 2008 at 5:12 PM

Maybe people are starting to think that McCain is more able to deal with big problems than pretty boy is. Obama has not exactly been a inspiring figure during this ordeal.

As for the states, who knows? Most of the states do not do polls as often as the national polls, it might be that if there really is movement in McCain’s direction in those states it won’t be apparent for a few more days.

Terrye on October 1, 2008 at 5:13 PM

Slick

sonnyspats1 on October 1, 2008 at 5:14 PM

My fellow Conservatives and Center Right friends…ALL we need to win is to be within few points …that we already very very close…and Mr. McCain has 5 weeks to make up ground…

This is going to be close but I still think we have it…

I no some of us freak out over all these polls but this race has been close from the get go…and that will favor us..

Take Care

Albertanator on October 1, 2008 at 5:20 PM

McCain needs to tap into the energy of Conservatives now! He needs to go to the well of the Senate tonight, explain in deep detail what went wrong with this economic meltdown, every detail, and then vote NO on this POS Bill. The masses who have been flooding email and phone banks with messages wanting no legislation like this will flow in behind him.

Benjamin9 on October 1, 2008 at 6:00 PM

Please know the new state polls are from the zenith of the Obama gains from 1 to 2 weeks ago. The state polls are ALWAYS at least a week behind. Don’t give up!

SouthernGent on October 1, 2008 at 6:06 PM

Don’t give up on Pa. yet.
Scranton-Wilkes-Barre is not going to go for Obama by what the numbers suggest; southwestern Pa., which is congenitally Democrat, is Bradley effect territory; and Rendell has done damn little to help Obama because he’s a Hillary guy through and through. The state’s two most prominent Dems — Rendell and Philly mayor Nutter — are Hillaries. (Bobby Casey is riding on his late father’s good name, no more, no less; he doesn’t count.)
Don’t forget in Pa. that we have some scandals that could enervate the GOP involving several prominent Dem legislators.
And there are a couple of Dem congresspeople in trouble for a variety of reasons, too. (I don’t know for sure if Traitor John Murtha is in real trouble, but he could be if the GOP backs William Russell smartly enough.)
So don’t write off the Keystone State. Get Palin to make a stop at the Cabela’s in Hamburg and you get a bunch of bitter clingers on your side.

either orr on October 1, 2008 at 6:13 PM

Do you guys really honestly believe this “MSM” poll paranoia that you tell yourselves, or is it just a coping mechanism?

Are you all victims? You’ve had Congress in your pocket for all but two of the last 14 years. Why didn’t Teh Media fix it so the Dems could have Congress, or Gore would win the White House, or Kerry would win the White House? If Obama wins, it would be the first time Dems would control the WH and Congress in, as I said, FOURTEEN YEARS.

This is completely illogical.

cjw79 on October 1, 2008 at 7:19 PM

I have seen all of Governor Palins’s ‘horrendous’ interviews with those less than picture perfect answers. Now I can say, considering all the answers that she has given, that she has done far better for a candidate only 4 weeks on the trail than Sen. Biden, with his 30 years of experience, in the same period of time. She has never exaggerated or lied, but he has.

scrubjay on October 1, 2008 at 8:16 PM

“An optimist is a man who looks after your eyes, and a pessimist is a man who looks after your feet.” I am not sure that this is not the best definition of all. There is even a sort of allegorical truth in it. For there might, perhaps, be a profitable distinction drawn between that more dreary thinker who thinks merely of our contact with the earth from moment to moment, and that happier thinker who considers rather our primary power of vision and of choice of road.

- G. K. Chesterton

FiveWays on October 1, 2008 at 4:58 PM

I listening to the audiotape of Orthodoxy and that is one of my favorites along with the discription of detached virtues. I’m quite overwelmed by his vision.

Fuquay Steve on October 1, 2008 at 10:12 PM

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