Luntz focus group: Who won the debate? Update: CBS poll of undecideds says Obama wins
posted at 9:26 am on September 27, 2008 by Allahpundit
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A Rorschach reaction, unsurprisingly. Hopefully we’ll have some quickie overnight polls to chew on later this morning.
The good news? Sounds like Maverick might have turned The One into a McCain voter. Click the image to watch.
Update: Why, here’s a poll already. Grim, but the 14-point spread between Dems and GOPers makes it pretty much useless.
Update: 39/24 for Obama among undecideds, says CBS. Yeesh.
Update: A focus group of undecideds run by a Democratic pollster also shows Obama winning by a margin similar to the one in CBS’s poll.
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I knew that the left was going to spin this to Barry’s advantage no matter what, but I can’t swallow this ‘undecideds’ show of hands. perhaps we can accept that these morons just like a pretty face and while they ignore McCain’s comparably vast experience over the nothing burger Barry has under his belt. Luntz is a complete putz, so that should enter into the assessment of this ridiculous ‘focus group’.
BUCKET!
Christine on September 27, 2008 at 1:19 PM
Luntz out-of-focus group.
backwoods conservative on September 27, 2008 at 1:21 PM
Uh…that wasn’t clear. I doubt very seriously that these LV people were undecided…nobody is that neutral or stoopid.
Christine on September 27, 2008 at 1:21 PM
Luntz should ask those same people if Obama lying about Kissinger changes their view and if not, why not.
aikidoka on September 27, 2008 at 1:21 PM
Lets just have a civil war, you all are too stupid to get it? Lets settle it on a battlefield. I am sick of sharing this country with these idiots.
Cardiganfox on September 27, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Christine on September 27, 2008 at 1:19 PM
I am a die hard in the wool Republican, but looking at the debate, McCain nailed Obama on the foreign policy stuff and was very strong. But here’s the problem. Nobody watching that debate cared very much about foreign policy. What they cared about was the bailout, and the bottom line is, Obama was prepared to talk about the bailout and McCain was not.
Obama got up there, said “Republican deregulatory policies are to blame and we’re going to pass a plan that has accountability” and so forth, and all McCain could do is ramble about earmarks and people he had put in jail. It was absurd. McCain had no effective response because he wasn’t prepared, and that’s why he lost this debate.
After Palin implodes in Thursday’s debate, I think we can stick a fork in McCain’s campaign. All we can do now is pray that the Republicans don’t completely lose their asses in Congressional races this year so that we can have some kind of check on the Democrats. Otherwise, Katie bar the door.
Outlander on September 27, 2008 at 1:26 PM
Metallica fan here too. :) I love “The Day That Never Comes”. My other fav from their new cd is “The Unforgiven III”. Here’s their new cd Death Magnetic:
http://metallica.com/index.asp?item=601231
artchick on September 27, 2008 at 1:28 PM
These polls and focus groups are bunk. Who are these morons that believe Obama won? Ugh…I cannot believe how naive some people are. I thinbk they just like the idea of all the handouts he’s promising…ooh, free health care, socking it to the rich, talking to our enemies. There is no understanding whatsoever of the consequences of his Marxism, of his dangerous and incompetent foreign policy views. They just want to be given everything and not earn a damn thing.
changer1701 on September 27, 2008 at 1:29 PM
-sniff- -sniff-
Do I smell some more astroturfing?
Religious_Zealot on September 27, 2008 at 1:30 PM
Yeah, I remember FranK Luntz being all giddy about Obama’s Hitler, er, I mean Berlin, speech as well- and that went no where. I’m beginning to think he’s slanted to Obama so that he’ll appeal to a bigger audience when his new book comes out.
Is he wearing a rug? If not, he needs to ditch the boy scout hairdo.
anniekc on September 27, 2008 at 1:30 PM
I think Dick Morris was right last night when he said we had had 2 separate debates:first over the economy (won very narrowly by Obama) and that over foreign policy won by McCain.
And I don’t expect too much from vp’s debate.
clemycali on September 27, 2008 at 1:32 PM
I am beginning to think I watched a totally different debate last night.
I thought McCain had nailed Obama at many times, and O looked rattled.
I wonder if there is something to mass hypnotism.
tru2tx on September 27, 2008 at 1:34 PM
Ummm… I signed up to be part of a Luntz focus group too a few months ago. As if I’M undecided?!
Oink on September 27, 2008 at 1:34 PM
…it used to be quite normal to refer to people by their titles, if they had any, or in the absences of bestowed or earned titles as “Mr.”, “Mrs.”, “Master” or “Miss” and the family name. It was a sign of respect…and was even used within families.
Even in European languages, use of the “vous” and “tu” or “sie” and “du” was rather rigidly controlled. Things are informal all over, but it was once understood to have weight.
That weight is this: you only ever referred to someone by their first name in public (and that could mean in the presence of as few as one other person) as a sign that the person so addressed was an inferior — a hired servant, a child or a slave.
…that certainly wasn’t in play, but it was not accidental either. It was not even to bring Mr. McCain down to Mr. Obama’s certainly rather junior level (in years, in length of service, in accomplishment), but rather to claw Mr. Obama up to Mr. McCain’s level.
There’s also a racial dimension here: recall Rod Steiger addressing Sidney Poitier as “Virgil”, both making fun of hte name and mispronouncing it (rather a schoolyard thing to do), as well as using the first name only. How does Mr. Poitier respond? Consider all the historical baggage (inter-racial), the time (on the cusp of the ’60’s), the place (Mississippi), and all the other things in play. How does Mr. Poitier reply?
“They call me MISTER Tibbs!”
That is a key moment in the piece. It says, “I am a man of accomplishment, and you will address me as at least an equal!” Small town cop v. large city cop? Professionally, one may be in Sparta, MS (a fictional place)…may even be the defacto law in Chickasaw County (a real place)…but you aren’t a homicide cop in Philly.
There’s a certain parallel to using a person’s last name only in address. It’s sometimes collegial, but is often adversarial and even dismissive…as when Lefties refer to Mr. Bush by his last name only…it’s almost a curse….
…so, the name thing was a tactic…clearly…and a rather annoying one. Mr. McCain’s earned at least a “Mister” after having served his country well and honorably in the military and in government since 1958. Even “Mister” would be a demotion.
That might not be important to some, but contravening the rules of polite discourse in a debate is. It means something rather pointed.
Next time, Mr. McCain should refer to Mr. Obama in addressing him from his podium — after Mr. Obama’s first “John” — as “Barry”. Then, he makes a point of saying, “May I call you ‘Barry’?” If the answer is yes, he makes a point of saying, “Then, you can call me ‘John’”.
Puritan1648 on September 27, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Patience, young Jedi, patience.
ManlyRash on September 27, 2008 at 1:39 PM
I watched the debate with my husband and 16yr old son. I was kinda surprised at the focus groups results because we all thought McCain won. I couldn’t believe the woman that said McCain kept stuttering. huh? No one mentioned Mr. Uhhh um And.
artchick on September 27, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Focus groups are subject to the first two or three people who speak out. Groupthink is really important to libs. Focus groups are moronic, IMHO.
Tennman on September 27, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Actually, I think O! would be a disastrously bad president. I don’t say this lightly, but at this point I would have much preferred Hillary.
He is ill-prepared and wrong-headed. And, worse still, he has a long track-record of associating with (and being helped by) unsavory people. I think he’ll have a terrible group of advisors around him (as evidenced by his current campaign team, as well as by his past advisors) and will never listen to anyone outside that circle. He will demoralize our military, putting us at greater risk of attack, and be disinclined to act on our country’s best interests in international affairs. The man could not even run a meeting loaded with political allies without it blowing up (on a topic where supposedly he is more expert than foreign affairs) — how can he negotiate with foreign leaders?
I have no illusions that a McCain presidency would lead to progress in some of the areas that are of importance to me (such as illegal immigration), but I do think he would keep us safe and that he would assemble a good team of advisors to help turn our economy around. I also think he could help push Congress back towards the center.
Y-not on September 27, 2008 at 1:46 PM
I heard Pat Buchanan on Sean the other day and he talked about a Washington insider – a MSM – who said (somewhat of a famous quote I guess) “I can’t believe Nixon won! No one I know voted for him.” I think all media have lost objectivity. Bottom line – it is up to your family and mine.
Oink on September 27, 2008 at 1:49 PM
It seems like every four years, the Dems go find this lost tribe of commitment-anxious lame-brains who try to make us think they’re undecided because they’re still considering, still ruminating, when in essence they’re just liberals waiting to find out who’s gonna promise them “mo stuff”.
AubieJon on September 27, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Neither won- We’re screwed ‘08.
Valiant on September 27, 2008 at 1:51 PM
It’s worthless, how so? Current total votes at Drudge are up to 338,068. That’s a very large sample, its about 330 times larger than most polls you cite with such gleeful confidence. Of course nay-sayers will point out that Drudge is not a “scientific poll.” But declaring a poll scientific is just a marketing tool used to sell polling data that is supposed to accurately represent a very large electorate while using only a very tiny sample. But its clear to me that the “science” of pollsters is never quite able to overcome their bias and/or desire for profits.
Logic dictates that the larger a poll’s sample the more accurate the poll. That’s why the big poll taken on November 4th is the official poll and accepted as the most accurate, because we “sample” everybody.
Right now the Drudge poll says 68% believe McCain won the debate with a sample of 338,068 persons. I will believe a poll with a large sample over a “scientific poll” with a tiny sample any day.
And what have you got against the Freepers?
Maxx on September 27, 2008 at 2:08 PM
I thought McCain was borderline retarded due to his bad class finishing, which the Left never fails to remind us? Shouldn’t Mr. Genius Harvard Law have kicked his butt?
Speedwagon82 on September 27, 2008 at 2:09 PM
I see I need to bring out the Mel Gibson-William Wallace-Braveheart-Sterling thing again:
HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD…….
just because better-equipped and better-funded enemies are coming straight at you, don’t get discourage and leave the battle
A better examples would be the battle of the Fallen Timbers, where Willian Henry Harrison and a mixed American army of regulars and militia defeated a much larger force of Indian armed with British muskets
Janos Hunyadi on September 27, 2008 at 2:18 PM
The best thing about the Luntz focus groups is the snazzy Etch-a-sketch doohicky otherwise, his groups do not appear to be “undecided” nor “fair and/or balanced”.
As for McCain not naming the names of those responsible last night during the debate for the malfeasance that contributed to the financial mess that the country is in was, in my opinion, because ‘we’ need those same incompetents to craft a hoped for resolution. If he had rattled off the names of Barney, Chuck, Dodd, Harry, Nancy Lugosi, Paulson, Cox, W. the wails wafting through halls of Congress would be unending. Senator McCain has plenty of time and the debate on the economy to ‘make them famous’.
p.s. I borrowed the Lugosi moniker from another board and poster
Gohawgs on September 27, 2008 at 2:19 PM
I refuse to believe that anyone is this ignorant about “logic” and/or polls.
Nonfactor on September 27, 2008 at 2:19 PM
…and yes, it was “Mad Anthony” Wayne rather than Harrison commanding.
Janos Hunyadi on September 27, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Senator Obama won many voters’ hearts and minds because the economy is foremost on our minds. We need a leader we can connect with and a leader who connects with us, on Main Street, not with big business.
John McCain mentioned the middle class zero times in his speech last night. Obama spoke directly to us, because middle class Americans and poor Americans are his constituency, not the rich businessmen in New York.
Is it too much to ask of a president to own one car and one house, instead of 13 cars and 8 houses? I don’t think so.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Luntz has become so inspired by obama his judgement in picking a focus group is impaired just ask hannity. He said as much 8 weeks ago.
thmcbb on September 27, 2008 at 2:26 PM
It seems the media is looking for a certain image in the next president. That image? Anything that IS NOT Bush.
McCain reminds everyone of Bush and Obama does not. It matters not that the guy is a baby killer and hangs with a lot of corrupt people.
It’s about replacing the Bush attitude with something different. This is what John needs to do. Then his experience will be paid attention to.
How about he switch gears and start presenting himself as an Arizonian? Play more on an Arizona maverick and less like a simple maverick. That sounds too Texan and that is too much like Bush.
csdeven on September 27, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Americans are struggling, and Obama directly addressed our fellow patriots who are struggling — struggling with high gas prices, home foreclosures, heating costs, and healthcare.
McCain doesn’t get it — we the people ARE struggling, yet he wants to continue the same economic policies of the last 8 years that benefit the rich while neglecting the poor patriotic American. The next president MUST focus on the struggling families and the poor. NOT on the rich who are already comfortable.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 2:27 PM
…that’s sort of the point. Mr. Obama’s got the Establishment Press, which blare out his virtures nightly. He and his party are actually running against a man positioned by that press as a deeply unpopular incumbent. He’s got the minority vote sewed up. He’s got the wafer-thin loyalty of the “youth vote”. He’s got the potential of a juggernaut there.
…and he’s dead even in the polls, even in the Northeast.
He’s got the sign-wavers, the hate-shouters, and the chronically unemployed protesters, but he hasn’t got the folks.
This isn’t because of Wright or Pflegger or Farakkhan or even his race (which he seems to dwell upon) or his wife’s verbal gaffs. Folks are hardly hearing about his running-mate’s verbal gaffs. So why don’t the folks like him?
It’s because the folks, especially those who aren’t chronically un- or under-employed, have experience of the world, and have responsibilities (families, businesses, bills, etc.) have pretty good bullsh*t detectors.
…the man’s a well-rehearsed cigar-store indian in a nice suit…he’s a classic pol….
Puritan1648 on September 27, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Why isn’t that true?
The pollsters I’ve read say the bigger the sample the more accurate the poll. The reason they don’t poll 10,000 people is because the increased accuracy doesn’t justify the cost of conducting the poll. TIt’s much cheaper and they are much more comfortable giving us a +/- 3% figure etc.
csdeven on September 27, 2008 at 2:29 PM
You need to look at the economic reports for the years since 2001. Record growth and near record low unemployment.
The problem is the kind of policies that Obama will implement. Higher taxes that trickle down and forced subprime mortgage ponzi schemes.
Obama is a failure now and will be a failure in everything he does.
csdeven on September 27, 2008 at 2:32 PM
The last time I checked, there was only one person with a claim to being from the middle-class on either ticket — Sarah Palin.
Y-not on September 27, 2008 at 2:33 PM
It not just the number of respondents that determines the accuracy of a poll. One must also qualify the respondents. That over 100,000 people responded to the Drudge poll tells us very little. What is the demographic breakdown (ie, the number of respondents who are McCain supporters vs the numbeer who are Obama supporters)?
For all we know, the Drudge site was flooded with McCain supports by a margin of 2:1 and voted accordingly. If that’s the case, then the pll results are skewed toward McCain.
Unfortunately, there is no way to know the political affiliation of those who voted and the vaue of the poll result is therefore dubious.
ManlyRash on September 27, 2008 at 2:37 PM
So you are saying that if I want to know what a hundred people think about “X” I’m better off asking only ten of them rather an all of them. Now that’s liberal logic.
Maxx on September 27, 2008 at 2:38 PM
troll alert
Obama-droid talking points alert
Janos Hunyadi on September 27, 2008 at 2:38 PM
…Harrison was Tippicanoe…as in “…and Tyler, too”.
I was going to suggest Thermopylae…then remembered the outcome and shifted my focus to Marathon.
Better: Pharsalus. Outnumbered 2-to-1, his men nearly starving (the Optimates actually considered letting Nature take its course and riding up to mop him up later)…
* Caesar holds his fire, his junior commanders don’t take the bait towards defeat when offered…
* The other side throws up an ill-conceived attack…
* It fails, and the guys withdraw…
* Like the Keystone Kops, the erstwhile attackers then crash back into the main line of troops.
(Roman armies were, at the time, unbeatable…and 2-to-1 inferiority was a recipe for disaster when facing them…until you either broke their formations — as in the Teutoburg Forest — or confused the hell out of heir officers.)
* Soon, everything descends into confusion.
Next thing you know, Caesar is handing out amnesties like a San Francisco mayor, Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus is on a bus for Egypt, and it’s off to a rendezvous with Cleopatra…or Elizabeth Taylor…I forget….
…so, history lesson over…hold your water…and pray for a Caesar….
Puritan1648 on September 27, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Earlier today, on Fox News, Scott Rasmussen stated that the polls won’t actually begin to reflect the results of the debate until tomorrow and forward.
sinsing on September 27, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Yes, Puritan, Harrison waa where you sez he was, and Caesar was a gosh durn good general–but also an egomaniac, and more importantly, a ruthless dictator whose opponents had onsets of Very Bad Fortune
Obama has all the bad qualities of Caesar but none of the good ones
Janos Hunyadi on September 27, 2008 at 2:45 PM
In 1997, he was reprimanded by the American Association for Public Opinion Research for refusing to release poll data to support his claimed results “because of client confidentiality”. Diane Colasanto, who was president of the AAPOR when it reprimanded Luntz, said, “It is simply wanting to know, How many people did you question? What were the questions? We understand the need for confidentiality, but once a pollster makes results public, the information needs to be public. People need to be able to evaluate whether it was sound research.”[10] In 2000 he was censured by the National Council on Public Polls “for allegedly mis-characterizing on MSNBC the results of focus groups he conducted during the [2000] Republican Convention.” In September 2004, MSNBC dropped Luntz from its planned coverage of that year’s presidential debate, following a letter from Media Matters that outlined Luntz’s GOP ties and questionable polling methodology.[11][12] In a video piece, entertainers and libertarians Penn & Teller lambasted Luntz for his comment that the key to survey polling is “to ask a question in the way that you get the right answer”. VIDEO OF PENN & TELLER taking on Luntz
Egfrow on September 27, 2008 at 2:47 PM
No, it’s statistical sampling. I suggest you google the science of polling for more information.
ManlyRash on September 27, 2008 at 2:49 PM
Remember: The only poll that means anything is the one that takes place on Nov. 4th. Anyone remember the “scientific” polls leading up to the 2000 and 2004 elections that showed Gore and Kerry respectively kicking Bush’s ass. Didn’t happen though, did it?
My guess is there are a lot of “closet” McCain voters out there who are going to tell their friends, families, and pollsters that they are voting for Obama right up to election day. Then in the privacy of the polling both, they going to pull the level for McCain.
Dagnar on September 27, 2008 at 2:52 PM
…didn’t some pol use the “we’re all egomaniacs” line the other day (Friday?) when addressing the machinations going into the financial bailout?
Caesar was ruthless…but, then, in his day, if you got power, you’d proscribe your enemies, have thugs kill them, you’d then confiscate their property and move along to the next pidgeon…until someone did to you what you did to their buddies…so, he can be forgiven on the ruthless front. Having any “ruth” was foolhardy.
…and Obama hasn’t the bad qualities of a Caesar…that allows him too much…Caesar had the faults of greatness….
…Obama has the faults of a high-school jock or a college fratboy…arrogance, wafer-thin achievement, and somebody else’s money….
Puritan1648 on September 27, 2008 at 2:53 PM
…or, as my dear old Dad used to put it, in his worldly wise way:
“He’s like a pimp on Friday. Clean white shirt, fresh pack of cigarettes…can’t tell him a damned thing!”
Ignorance, arrogance and stubbornness are a heady mixture.
Puritan1648 on September 27, 2008 at 2:55 PM
And a middle-class struggling American would be voting for her against his or her socioeconomic self-interest. Palin has already been asked if she would enact a moratorium on home foreclosures this winter; she gave an “I don’t know” answer.
Palin might be from the middle-class but the narrative does not parallel her views on such basic issues that middle-class American patriots are struggling with, such as home foreclosures, home heating oil costs, and the lack of universal health care.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 3:00 PM
Thank you Egfrow for that information. It doesn’t surprise me in the least. Frank Luntz always comes across as a little bi-polar in his polling. Besides I simply don’t believe there are many, (if any) people who truly haven’t made up their minds. I think they’re just attention seekers who like having people try to convince them. These candidates are just too different!
anniekc on September 27, 2008 at 3:02 PM
By the Way-
When do you suppose we get to hear how the Clintons think the debate went? I bet I know who Bill liked….
anniekc on September 27, 2008 at 3:04 PM
Wow, you’re busy pushing this Americans-in-pain meme all over the place, aren’t you? Do you also find your speech peppered with the phrase, “the workin’ man”?
capitalist piglet on September 27, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Ignorance, arrogance and stubbornness are a
headydangerous mixture.Fixed it.
ManlyRash on September 27, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Punt the Luntz!
America1st on September 27, 2008 at 3:12 PM
Its obvious that any mistake the Lightworker makes will be hushed up by MSM because they are in love with his ugly ass face.
Speedwagon82 on September 27, 2008 at 3:18 PM
…could it possibly be that, 3-4 weeks after having been thrown into the maelstrom of presidential politics, this “middle class” woman actually didn’t have a ready answer, and didn’t want to shoot from the hip.
You see, out here in the real world, policy wonks are thin on the ground, and when encountered are largely shunned…dreary little weasels that they are.
Maybe she wanted time to study the matter. Maybe she doesn’t think in sound bites, and would want as fair a solution as the situation allows, in keeping with the economic beliefs that she has.
As a “middle class” joint head of household (with my wife) — actually “lower middle class”, but not “low income”, as I’m white and that tired code-word doesn’t apply to me — I can see her position. Rushing into a $700Mil giveaway, with the Dems very obviously wanting to both railroad a solution through and put the Republicans on the blame-line for a plan they not only weren’t even responsible for but even consulted about, might not be a good thing…or a smart thing. Seeing as we’re talking about other peoples’ money, maybe we should give this a good bit of attention before spouting.
That’s a “middle class” way of looking at things.
The sky’s not falling. Folks’ll be hurt, without any doubt. The credit market’ll tighten, maybe to a ruinous degree for some. And, looking to the collegiate sort, we’ve had folks making money on money for a long time — sort of an up-market version of what Yiddish folks last century called “luftmenschen” — and it’ll hit those guys pretty hard. Farmers’ll hurt, Wall Street players’ll hurt. No doubting that.
…but the whole “she’s not ready” dirge is misplaced. I like someone who holds fire on important matters until they’re sure of their footing.
Ms. Palin, I point out, didn’t have FDR on TV in 1929, either. See what happens when you choose your battles?
Puritan1648 on September 27, 2008 at 3:27 PM
I thought including a reference to the price of home heating oil was pretty funny. Let’s see… which candidate knows the most about oil?
Focusing on how many cars O! owns, when the guy lives in Hyde Park, is pretty funny, too. I’ve lived in Hyde Park. ‘Didn’t need a car.
Whenever a candidate’s supporters tell me how concerned that candidate is about the middle class, my radar goes up. Usually, as in this case, it means that candidate is promising lots of domestic programs funded for by increasing taxes and administered by enlarging the federal government.
People can support O!, but please do not insult our intelligence by claiming that he is any more in touch with middle-class voters than the next career politician.
Just another bitter clinger,
Y-not on September 27, 2008 at 3:28 PM
…no…from our point of view, certainly.
I was, for a second, trying to see things from his point of view…then, I took a shower…I feel better now.
Puritan1648 on September 27, 2008 at 3:29 PM
F you Frank
JeffreyLloyd on September 27, 2008 at 3:29 PM
…I’m sorry, is this a personal abuse thread?
Can I heckle from the sidelines?
Puritan1648 on September 27, 2008 at 3:34 PM
Gallup Tracking Obama +5
Rasmussen Tracking Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking Obama +5
GW/Battleground Tracking McCain +2
CBS News/NY Times Obama +5
FOX News Obama +6
Marist Obama +5
All the recent major polls, except GW/Battleground Tracking, which is clearly an outlier, have Obama beating McCain by either 5 or 6 percent.
KentAllard on September 27, 2008 at 3:37 PM
Palin might be from the middle-class but the narrative does not parallel her views on such basic issues that middle-class American patriots are struggling with, such as home foreclosures, home heating oil costs, and the lack of universal health care.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 3:00 PM
Are you serious? When did Obama address any of this last night? Most people being forclosed bought a house they couldn’t afford, so I don’t care. Heating costs will be a problem this winter. Obama doesn’t want us to drill for our own oil to address that issue. On the contrary, he wants to spend billions on alternative sources and unproven energy systems. No nuclear power.
Universal Healthcare? Who the F*ck wants universal healthcare besides socialist democrats? Oh, I guess you are one of them. Go play at Kos.
JAM on September 27, 2008 at 3:38 PM
Stop calling them undecided voters and call them clueless voters.
RobCon on September 27, 2008 at 3:41 PM
Thats natural because of the economic news and the fact that last night, in the first 10-15 minutes, McCain lost a golden opportuntity to traunch Obama on the bail out bill. And instead of explaining why he went to Washington and suspended his campgain and how he and the House republicans fight to save tax payers money, he just said thet “he hopes in a bipartisan bill”. Stupid, stupid, stupid. I’m afraid he lost the election last night.
And I say once again. I don’t expect too much from Sarah Palin next week. If she presents herself as shacky as she was with katie Couric its game over. Obama wins in a landslide.
clemycali on September 27, 2008 at 3:46 PM
Be patient. McCain will pull enough of these folks to win. They are “undecided” now because they haven’t voted for a Republican for a while, but they are not comfortable with someone as unprepared as O! to be president. They are waiting to see if McCain shows that he is the volatile, senile old guy that his opponents are claiming he is. He isn’t, of course, he’s an experienced, thoughtful leader who is widely respected by his peers and ready to lead in a crisis.
Many of those undecided folks were Hillary voters who supported her because they felt she was more experienced and qualified than O! I’ve been checking the PUMA sites and am glad to see that they are alive and well. They are picking up on the strong arm tactics to shut down dissent by O!’s flying monkeys and it pisses them off. They recognize that O! is fundamentally wrong on foreign policy, particularly with regards to the Middle East, and they are comfortable with McCain as commander-in-chief. And, they are offended by how Palin has been treated.
Many PUMAs will vote for McCain. And, because they are a vocal, politically active group who were spurned by their party, they will persuade others to vote for McCain.
Bill Clinton has been helpful, too.
Y-not on September 27, 2008 at 3:55 PM
Maybe you are right but I doubt it. Because what ever tv channel I watch I see former Clinton advisers spinning for Obama. In the end I’m afraid Bill Clinton must get out and say it in plain english “Don’t vote O for the sake of the country” if he and Hillary want to have another chance. People are not so subtle to understand the very nuanced Bill Clinton support for McCain. And what on Earth is Hillary Clinton doing on Michigan campaigning for Obama?
You know, I was thinking last night, maybe the Clinton’s resigned themselves with an Obama win. Maybe Hillary wants Harry Reid position and she although knows that with ted Kennedy’s poor health she is going to be the de facto leader of the Senate democrats. Maybe. Just saying. Maybe I am a converted pesimistic like AP.
clemycali on September 27, 2008 at 4:02 PM
Don’t despair.
I think most folks recognize that it is just McCain’s style that he does not take partisan shots very often, particularly when the stakes (for the country) are high. I think Obama showed how partisan is he last week. He only spoke about talking with members of his party — oh, and also Paulson. But despite daily phone calls with Paulson, Obama had nothing of substance to contribute to the discussion. He went to DC when Bush summoned him, then flubbed the meeting at the White House… despite having been given prepared talking points going into the meeting. Some leadership.
Obama looked ridiculous last week when he kept objecting that “presidential politics” shouldn’t be injected into the bailout crisis. If we are in a crisis, shouldn’t the future president go to DC to help resolve it?
I would argue that Obama lost the election when he was unable to name a single thing he would cut from the bailout bill.
And, McCain completely slammed Obama on the rest of the debate. People weigh foreign policy very heavily in presidential elections, whatever current polls might say. Unfortunately, there are bound to be more hotel bombings before the election to remind people what the stakes are.
Y-not on September 27, 2008 at 4:10 PM
The problem is that you have a lack of empathy for the common man, the struggling American patriot, who is in danger of losing his or her home. There is much blame to go around but we must not forget to have empathy for those people. We must start acting like the Christians we claim to be and make sure there is a moratorium on foreclosures this winter.
We must also begin to think of health care as a human right.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 4:13 PM
UPDATE TO MR. PHILLIP BERG’S LAWSUIT AGAINST BARACK OBAMA BASED ON OBAMA’S INELIGIBILITY ON HIS CANDIDACY AS REGARDS THE REQUIREMENTS OF NATURAL BORN CITIZENSHIP ACCORDING TO THE CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
Partial excerpt from an email I sent Mr. Berg:
“I trust the judge did not originally dismiss your lawsuit because it does indeed have merit. We, as Americans, in order to fulfill the intent and directive of our Constitution are bound by patriotic duty to determine the legal status of any citizen running for the Presidency of the United States; such determination of status having to do with a requirement that said citizen must be a natural born citizen. Mr. Obama should be required to present pertinent evidence that would allow a judge or qualified public official to determine if he is, or is not, a natural born citizen. It is a legal requirement.”
Mr. Berg sent this copy of Mr. Obama’s and the DNC’s response.
Update: http://www.nextgenerationcorp.com/NextGenBlog/?p=66
It appears that Mr. Obama is trying to stall the matter. The outstanding issue is Mr. Obama’s birth certificate (Certificate of Live Birth). It appears that so far he has obfuscated this issue as well by providing, or having his agents provide, a false certificate of birth for publication.
But to Mr. Obama’s determent, the people of the United States of America demand that he (Mr. Obama) remove himself from eligibility to run for any political office for which he is not qualified and/or for which he (Mr. Obama) will not publicly present authoritative qualification for his candidacy as required by the Constitution of the United States of America.
God bless.
AdrianS on September 27, 2008 at 4:15 PM
You are out of touch like John McCain. Only a McCain supporter (like Phil Gramm) would characterize the struggling American patriot’s crumbling American Dream as a “meme” or a “mental recession.”
Just a tip, calling American patriots “whiners” is not going to win you an election.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 4:16 PM
It’s entirely possible that mny of them are waiting to see if Obama ditches Biden in favor of Hillary. As the likelihood of a running mate switch decreases between now and election day, I suspect the number of PUMAs and disaffected Hillaryites expressing support for McCain will begin to increase.
It is also possible that many of these folks claim to be undecided for fear of backlash from their own party. For that matter, the support many of them express for Obama could very well be a sham.
Don’t be too surprised if many of those who claim to be undecided have already made up their minds to pull the lever for McCain on November 4.
Unfortunately for the pollsters and those who live and die by the poll results, the truth will not be known until the polls close.
ManlyRash on September 27, 2008 at 4:19 PM
You’re astroturfing, Phil. Take it on outta here and back over Kos, mmkay?
ManlyRash on September 27, 2008 at 4:20 PM
clemycali -
I had myself all wound up in knots last week as the bailout thing was developing, but it’s not constructive, really. After the debate I actually felt a lot better.
Don’t forget that the polls show people are against the bailout bill. McCain (and especially Boehner and Cantor) made a good case for not rubber stamping Paulson’s plan. The democrats have clearly been completely partisan — even MSNBC ran the clip of Dodd admitting they hadn’t invited Republicans to the meeting.
Assuming some sort of compromise is reached this week, McCain will weather this fine. Actually, Pelosi handed him a gift by stating that they weren’t likely to vote before Wednesday… whereas Boehner, Blunt, and Cantor are on tv showing that they are working into the wee hours to try to reach a deal before the stock market opens on Monday.
Hang in there. Are you in California? I am a recent transplant to Cali myself. It’s hard out here, but there are a lot of red states.
Y-not on September 27, 2008 at 4:21 PM
I’m what?
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 4:26 PM
Actually the majority of polls in 2004 predicted a Bush victory. The RCP average for Bush was 1.5, which is lower than what he acutally received, but RCP was exactly right when it came to the electoral vote count. Polls do matter, Obama lead right now is outside the margin of error. Unless there is a huge Bradley effect, its Obama election to lose. Of coarse another game changer like the Palin pick could change that. But clinging to wishful thinking isn’t going to change anything.
Ric on September 27, 2008 at 4:27 PM
Ok, I have to share this, but it’s my last post about O!’s “constituents,” I promise.
A week or so ago on Rush he had an O! supporter from Chicago on who called in all upset that Rush was not giving O! enough credit for all the great things he did while a state senator. The example he used – presumably his best example – of O!’s achievement in the state senate was some bill that had to do with re-classifying the penalties on drug convictions for smoked (crack) cocaine to bring it in line with the severity for snorted cocaine.
Now that’s Change We Can Believe In.
I’m a little out of touch with things, though — is this also a middle-class issue?
Y-not on September 27, 2008 at 4:29 PM
I know Democrats are stupid, but really, do you honestly think more than 20 of them think it is at all possible that Biden will be ditched?
Speedwagon82 on September 27, 2008 at 4:34 PM
By my math McCain won last nights debate.
What is my math you may ask.
Well I gauge what Dick Morris says and then go in the exact opposite direction because Dick Morris is an absolute meathead.
So lets see here, Morris said last night Barack Obama won. Ok, carry the one, simplify the equation and the answer is: McCain won.
Sammy316 on September 27, 2008 at 4:38 PM
I think it’s a possibility, although not a strong one. He has yet to add anything to the ticket and has made a lot of mistakes, many much bigger than just gaffes. He’s contradicted O! a lot.
I do think there is a chance he’ll fall “ill” next month.
Actually, the way things played out, we are darned lucky Hillary didn’t run on a third-party ticket. Even I would have voted for her if it looked like McCain couldn’t beat Obama, and I really don’t like Hillary.
Y-not on September 27, 2008 at 4:39 PM
We must also begin to think of health care as a human right.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 4:13 PM
Nationalizing healthcare will not make it any more of a “right” than it is now. Everyone receives care if they seek it out. They cannot be turned away. Putting the govt. in charge of it will make it worse, not better. Rationing would be done by bureaucrats. That to me is even worse than some insurance hack deciding who is granted or denied care. The system needs improvement, yes. Free market principles need to be applied, not Walter Reed style care.
As for the foreclosures, I do feel for anyone losing their home. I do not feel obligated to pay for their home and mine too, however. My Chrisian principles are still firmly intact. “Give a man a fish, he eats for day. Teach a man to fish, he eats for a lieftime.”
JAM on September 27, 2008 at 4:42 PM
Y-not, yes, I live in California and I am a transplant myself:from eastern europe:)). My husband is a transplant from Ohio.
I’m afraid Morris is right. I looked earlier on Drudge and they say too that Obama won.
Totally agree. I say the bradley effect for Obama is about 3%, maybe 4% but that’s about it. And McCain had his opportunity last night to close the deal with the economy and he didn’t do it. The first 15 minutes of the debate were good for Obama and bad for McCain. How many people are intrested in the situation of Ukraine right now?
clemycali on September 27, 2008 at 4:48 PM
Too bad your candidate doesn’t agree with you.
http://www.nrlc.org/ObamaBAIPA/WhitePaperAugust282008.html
Y-not on September 27, 2008 at 4:49 PM
That is one of the several things I disagree with him on.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 4:55 PM
Who are “they”?
Concerned Christian Conservatives making over $140,000?
Sammy316 on September 27, 2008 at 4:59 PM
clemycali on September 27, 2008 at 4:48 PM
Uh, Drudge has McCain WON by 68% to 30% for Obama. What are you talking about?
JAM on September 27, 2008 at 5:00 PM
Thats why I asked who “they” were.
I’m not gonna say it, we’re all thinking it, but I’m not gonna say it.
Sammy316 on September 27, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Sammy316:”they” is actually Drudge. Sorry. It was my mistake.
And JAM, I looked earlier on Drudge and I saw a headline about who won the debate. Now I see that they have again their own poll again with McCain at 68%. Maybe it was an advertisment. I really don’t know but I still say that evan McCain is declared the last night winner was not a great win. And I say again, Obama was better in the first 15 minutes. Call me pesimistic but I doubt that McCain is going to be declared the next president on 5th of november. I hope I am wrong about my feelings but I am not very optimistic.
clemycali on September 27, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Well gee, why don’t you just explain to us how polling a smaller sample is more accurate than polling a larger sample. This I want to hear, if you really believe that’s true then you should be able to explain it. Let’s hear it.
Maxx on September 27, 2008 at 5:18 PM
Drudge poll was an online poll he opened after the debate.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 5:23 PM
Yesterday morning I was feeling very glum from all the polls. I took a break from the media and blogs, went to my local grocery store where I cashed in my coin jar ($46 bucks – woo, hoo!), and enjoyed the sunshine while driving my VW Eos (great car) to my local sushi place. After that — and the debate — I felt better. You should too.
I don’t see how Obama comes out on top of McCain over this financial crisis. By his own admission, he was not needed. He only went to DC when Bush summoned him.
In terms of economics overall, he is a tax and spend liberal. That may play in good times, but not in bad. Regular people know that when you are facing financial hard times, you have to cut spending. Obama does not. Hard-working Americans do not expect handouts. They expect fiscal responsibility. Nothing Obama said last night showed that he knows how to cut spending.
In last night’s debate Lehrer asked Obama what he would give up in order to pay for the bailout. Obama did not identify a single thing, instead, he listed expensive programs, some of which would require a major increase in the size of the federal government, and waved his hands at ’structural changes’ in government to pay for them. Oh, and he alluded to ‘unknown tax revenues’ — I think we know what that is.
Rather than acknowledging that the bailout will be expensive and that he will need to work with Congress to identify things to cut and stopping his answer there, he rambled on and on about how he’d spend the tax money he’s going to raise off the folks he has decided are ‘rich.’
Y-not on September 27, 2008 at 5:24 PM
Should we also start thinking of food and housing as human rights? You know, a “right” is something that cannot be lawfully denied, whether you work or not.
Maxx on September 27, 2008 at 5:27 PM
Yes.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 5:31 PM
You are funny. I mean that. I really do.
Who’s this “we”, you’re talking about, lefty? Let me tell you something – I pay 100% out of my own pocket for health insurance, and it’s not cheap…but I would rather do that than wait six months for something my life depends on. If we give the government that kind of control over life or death, do you suppose some of us might regret it one day?
The more I read your posts, the more brainwashed you sound. This one was absolutely classic. I’m inclined to think you’re putting us all on, just for amusement.
capitalist piglet on September 27, 2008 at 5:32 PM
Our troops are fighting and dying in Iraq and Afghanistan to protect our way of life, and more importantly, to improve it.
We must honor their sacrifice by making sure our lives are improved, and that no American has to go to bed hungry or homeless.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 5:33 PM
Just a tip, calling American patriots “whiners” is not going to win you an election.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 4:16 PM
I wouldnt call anyone that supports the present democrat establishment patriots.
Elric66 on September 27, 2008 at 5:34 PM
You just really don’t believe anyone should have to do anything to earn a living, do ya? (Until we’re all working for the almighty state, that is.)
capitalist piglet on September 27, 2008 at 5:34 PM
By we I mean the People.
I agree that it’s expensive and will not pay for itself; there will be sacrifices to ensure that health care is regarded as a human right. But a country that can conduct two concurrent wars can afford to require that universal health care is a human right for all who want it. You are free to have your own private plan under this program, which is coming sooner than you think.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 5:36 PM
Since every other government program has been extremely successful, lets trust the government with our health care as well.
Elric66 on September 27, 2008 at 5:37 PM
So you hate a majority of Americans? LMAO.
This is why the GOP elitists will lose — their constant condescension against struggling Americans who are losing their American Dream and are turning to the Dems for salvation. We’re not going to get them back by calling them whiners or unpatriotic.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 5:38 PM
With the proper funding and patriotic support of health care as a pro-American human right, it should be as successful as our military.
philnewkirk on September 27, 2008 at 5:40 PM
How ironic calling the GOP elitists. Also amusing you are are so ready to defend a party that wants you to suffer in order for you to be dependent on them. You are such a good little socialist, Ill give you that.
Elric66 on September 27, 2008 at 5:41 PM
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