Gallup tracking poll: Dead heat again
posted at 2:30 pm on September 25, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Conventional wisdom held that Barack Obama would benefit from an economic crisis, but at least according to Gallup’s daily tracking poll, it’s put a dent in Obama’s momentum. He lost his three-point lead abruptly and has dropped back into a tie at 46% with John McCain among likely voters. That contrasts sharply with the polls from the Washington Post/ABC and Fox, which showed Obama gaining some momentum:
John McCain has gained ground and is now tied with Barack Obama among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Sept. 22-24, with each candidate getting 46% support.
This update covers interviewing conducted Monday through Wednesday, and as such includes one night after McCain’s announcement that he was suspending election campaigning and flying to Washington to help seek a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis. A night by night analysis of interviewing results, however, does not suggest that McCain had a dramatically better night against Obama on Wednesday. Instead, the data show that McCain has been doing slightly better for the last three days than he had in the previous week, and with some strong Obama days falling off of the rolling average, the race has moved to its current tied position. This is the first report since Sept. 13-15, in which Obama did not have at least a one percentage point edge.
Rasmussen, however, shows Obama still ahead by three, and says the exact opposite of Gallup:
Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The overwhelming majority of the interviews for today’s report were completed before the President’s speech last night. However, it is worth noting that results for the past two individual nights of polling were quite a bit weaker for McCain.
So what does this mean? It shows that the race is still a margin-of-error event, not the wide gaps shown in polls with commensurate wide gaps in voter identification. Until we get past the debates, we’re unlikely to see massive movement in overall numbers.
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Hey, I was just kidding about the ‘hourly’ polls yesterday…
cntrlfrk on September 25, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Ugh….I HATE polls!
HornetSting on September 25, 2008 at 2:31 PM
The pollsters and MSM have a vested intrest in keeping the contest a horse race too close to call.
Iblis on September 25, 2008 at 2:32 PM
What’s up with MCCAIN’S left eye?
cntrlfrk on September 25, 2008 at 2:32 PM
This is going to drive me to drink. I don’t think I can take 40 more days of polls. I had no idea there were so many stupid people in this country. It really is amazing that we had an industrial revolution.
bopbottle on September 25, 2008 at 2:33 PM
McCain’s winning! McCain’s losing! Obama’s up! Obama’s down!
Translation: The pollsters have no freaking clue as to what’s going on.
amerpundit on September 25, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Still think these polls are pure crap- just like the rest of the MSM.
FiveWays on September 25, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Where’s AP now? Is he sad? Why isn’t this an obligatory post? So many questions…
Fuquay Steve on September 25, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Probably the surgery for the melanoma on the face….
They are talking about McCain’s age again.
HornetSting on September 25, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Zogby!
http://www.zogby.com/
Dudley Smith on September 25, 2008 at 2:35 PM
CORRECTION: McCains BEEN winning and still is- the media does NOT want to admit it.
FiveWays on September 25, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Polls, polls, the musical fruit,
The more you take them, the more they toot.
Pasalubong on September 25, 2008 at 2:35 PM
The polls are running batsh1t crazy like the markets. I just stopped following.
Aristotle on September 25, 2008 at 2:36 PM
I usually go with the Gallup if I need a quick poll to look at, otherwise, I’m a RCP average guy, and currently, Obama is still in the lead.
DanStark on September 25, 2008 at 2:36 PM
I am now sick of the polls. Half of the time, they are either inaccurate or just plain biased, mostly toward B.O., no big surprise there.
Besides, I have already made up my mind who I am voting for anyway. I don’t need Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew, or whatever poll-pinhead is out there trying to sway me otherwise.
pilamaye on September 25, 2008 at 2:37 PM
GOOGLE:SAUL ALINSKY BARRACK OBAMA LUCIFER
WND.COM Has a great article on how Obama got into Harvard. This thing is amazing.
volsense on September 25, 2008 at 2:38 PM
That’s it, I’m off to buy my “IMPEACH OBAMA” bumper sticker.
cntrlfrk on September 25, 2008 at 2:38 PM
uh-oh. Looks like somebody is bringing race into the…err.. race.
cntrlfrk on September 25, 2008 at 2:40 PM
For me it means to start ignoring these polls that sample maybe 1-2K of people, because they don’t reflect the accurate voting public. These huge jumps in the last 2 weeks so how inaccurate they are in my opinion.
JeffinSac on September 25, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Still crap.
FiveWays on September 25, 2008 at 2:42 PM
72% of statistics are made up.
Since I work in a field which uses statistics quite heavily, I always view with interest how different certain polls can be even though they are, ostensibly, using similar polling and sampling methods. Usually you can ignore the outliers (McCain up by 20%!!!!!) because they are damnably obvious. Also, if the polls tend to bounce around each other, it’s usually simply statistical variation. What you need to watch for, though, is when the polls start showing similar trends/numbers, consistently, over a decent interval of time. They tend to indicate how things actually are.
One exception: voting exit polls are completely worthless.
Physics Geek on September 25, 2008 at 2:42 PM
“Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. 14% of people know that.”
- Homer J Simpson.
FiveWays on September 25, 2008 at 2:44 PM
Dammit, I just got covered with dust-bunnies after hiding under the bed from yesterday’s polls, now I need to climb out?
Bishop on September 25, 2008 at 2:44 PM
Someone said it on another forum I visit, but the media is doing a successful job of what Dan Rather tried to do to Bush in 2004: torpedoing the Republican party.
That is their goal. And Dan Rather failed because his of his fraudulent documents. In place of documents, we got smears and lies from “sources” that cannot be viewed.
Enoxo on September 25, 2008 at 2:45 PM
No surprise, plenty of swings left.
Spirit of 1776 on September 25, 2008 at 2:45 PM
I noticed that, too, but it should be fine unless it turns into the Dreyfus twitch from the Pink Panther films.
Terrie on September 25, 2008 at 2:46 PM
For at least the last two Presidential cycles, the polls have overweighted the Dems to the tune of about six points. This is where you are hearing about Obama’s “6-point handicap.”
Some of the pollsters say that Obama “should be running about six points better than where he is” based on uncertainties about racism and new voters. The reality is that Obama is already running about six points better than where he should be due to the afore mentioned chronic overweighting.
Republicans, meanwhile, tend to underweighted by 2-3 points.
Ace ODale on September 25, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Nothing. But that hasn’t stopped your fellow Huffers and Kidz from buzzing about it.
ManlyRash on September 25, 2008 at 2:48 PM
Two polls today have McCain up by 2: Zogby and Franklin and Marshall. Since we get all the bad news, why not mention those polls?
blue13326 on September 25, 2008 at 2:48 PM
I can’t believe one of them is my Mother. She told my sister yesterday not to get all her news from Fox and that those who do are narrow minded.
My Mother is an intelligent woman…I just don’t get this. What’s in it for her? Is it because she is a senior and wants entitlements? I truly don’t get it.
dmarie on September 25, 2008 at 2:49 PM
He’s makin’ fun of a story on HuffPo.
lorien1973 on September 25, 2008 at 2:49 PM
Ouch.dmarie
It is best to see what the enemy is doing, and that includes dems, terrorists, rogue nations, Keith Olbermann….
You should watch MSNBC for this very reason and then watch Fox to get the REAL story.
HornetSting on September 25, 2008 at 2:51 PM
These polls mean nothing until somebody leads by 6 or more for more than one week.
Elizabetty on September 25, 2008 at 2:52 PM
Lorien, thanks for setting me straight.
Terrie on September 25, 2008 at 2:53 PM
These polls are a waste of time. Pure propaganda. A snapshot of a bird flying north in the winter, which slowly circles around and heads south.
WildBillK on September 25, 2008 at 2:53 PM
We should have a poll on that.
Uh… Ctrl’s a pretty good guy actually. I think this was more about curiosity than buzz.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 25, 2008 at 2:53 PM
With the debacle of the housing meltdown involving Freddie and Fannie, with so much of the fault laid at the feet of Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Schumer and the clear evidence of the danger of the Democratic Party socialist give away programs, McCain should be 20 points ahead! Aren’t people paying attention AT ALL??
Star20 on September 25, 2008 at 2:55 PM
Yes… to the MSM.
Sadly, that’s the way it is nowadays… the grand majority of people get all their information from TV, newspapers, and magazines, all of which the Dems have in their back pocket.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 25, 2008 at 2:56 PM
Time to tweak the models again to get Barry back on top where he belongs…
TheBigOldDog on September 25, 2008 at 2:58 PM
He’s winking at HuffPo…
CC
CapedConservative on September 25, 2008 at 2:59 PM
I’m no expert but it’s looking like many have made their decision and it’s just a few percent (<10 maybe?) that are still swinging back and forth.
I know that there is nothing that could change my voting mind and I suspect this is true of those who have ‘decided’ on Obambi. In fact, I think once people decide, their perspective is skewed with respect to what they are seeing and hearing – so that the hear what they want to hear and block out what they don’t.
dmarie on September 25, 2008 at 2:59 PM
The Pollsters should all give up already…man this is one mess of an election season.
Dritanian on September 25, 2008 at 2:59 PM
Grue:
May I interest you in some Barney Frank Hotdogs dipped in Chris Dodd Levenworth Sauce?
HornetSting on September 25, 2008 at 2:59 PM
All this poll BS is getting REALLY old!
Up, down, up, down.
Obama, McCain, Obama, McCain
These polls are either ridiculously slanted in some way EVERY TIME THEY ARE DONE, or those being polled are fickle morons who can’t make up their damn minds.
Wait, what?
catmman on September 25, 2008 at 2:59 PM
That just about sums it up.
No thanks, those things don’t agree with my system.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 25, 2008 at 3:01 PM
Two Questios: 1) Where are all the fainting women since he beat Hillary? 2) Where are they hiding Michelle?
volsense on September 25, 2008 at 3:01 PM
1. Waiting for their bailout check.
2. Club Gitmo?
HornetSting on September 25, 2008 at 3:03 PM
Dude.
amerpundit on September 25, 2008 at 3:04 PM
Grue passed them up….won’t eat chicken.
HornetSting on September 25, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Interesting – Obama only up 5 in Maine. Most electoral projections say this is a deep blue state, and it is – Kerry won by nine points, Gore by five. However, the seven percent undecided is the kicker – if McCain can break enough of them off in the second district, he gets one electoral vote out of this state.
Slublog on September 25, 2008 at 3:08 PM
This was interesting from the Maine Survey report linked to above:
dmarie on September 25, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Just got back from Boston….most of the Northeast is already locked up….had to walk around with a barf bag.
HornetSting on September 25, 2008 at 3:16 PM
Sen. McCain worked while H. Obama jerked (America around)!
Sen. McCain worked while H. Obama jerked (America around)!
Sen. McCain worked while H. Obama jerked (America around)!
Sen. McCain worked while H. Obama jerked (America around)!
madmonkphotog on September 25, 2008 at 3:18 PM
The MSM like to stroke polls as if they are true results; they think it’s all about the money shot.
geckomon on September 25, 2008 at 3:19 PM
It’d be more than hilarious if the electoral “tie” scenario worked out except for the one district of Maine, resulting in 270 – 268 McCain. Even more hilarious if Obama won the popular vote. Throw in re-count battles in 1 – 10 states…
You think the screeching from the other side is loud now?
CK MacLeod on September 25, 2008 at 3:22 PM
For $5,000 I’ll take care of this. For an additional $2,000 I’ll make it look like a fall in the bathtub.
(I keed, I keed.)
ManlyRash on September 25, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Know your pain… until recently my sister-in-law was similar. Normally a strong conservative, but as a native Arizonan she’s seen the worst of McCain throughout the years and for the longest time was strongly Obama.
There’s apparently a website out there where you can answer a few questions and it’ll tell you which candidate you agree with most. She came straight down the middle, but in her own words “The stuff I agree with Obama on is the stuff that’s not all that important, but the stuff I agree with McCain on is all the things I really care about.”
Better than “Obama Or Bust” at least.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 25, 2008 at 3:28 PM
So what does this mean? Nothing until Nov. 5th
Griz on September 25, 2008 at 3:29 PM
Tell your mother the reason FOX has done so well is because it has both Democrats and Republicans on all the shows. That is NOT narrow-minded. It is being fair and balanced; something none of the other networks can claim. Who is really narrow-minded? The one who presents only one side or the one who presents all sides?
Connie on September 25, 2008 at 3:29 PM
Good news on Gallup.
Hey, did anybody notice on Rasmussen that McCain is still doing well in the key battleground states?
McCain looks like he is ahead now electorally since he is still ahead in FL, OH, VA, NV, CO, and even NM and NH. Wow.
Obama is gaining in IN and NC, but I just don’t see him taking either of those.
This looks great. As long as McCain can hold FL, VA, and OH and the Mountain states, he wins.
The big danger now is Obama lieing to old ladies in FL which just might get him the state if McCain does not get back there and fight like crazy. Remember how Gore in 2000 was trying to scare all those old people? It almost worked accept for the high Cuban-American vote that went for Bush due to Clinton shipping Elian G. back to Castro.
Sapwolf on September 25, 2008 at 3:38 PM
Has anyone notice the slight swelling in the left earlobe of McCain?
I also noticed Palin’s wrist seems to be a little red…skin cancer from the tanning bed?
So now we have two candidates on the death bed??
Well, back to the polls…
My head is spinning with all these polls…
right2bright on September 25, 2008 at 3:42 PM
gonna be a landslide. Reaganesque even.
kirkill on September 25, 2008 at 3:59 PM
Just saw the presser with everybody at the White House and almost everybody looks pissed. Particularly McC.
Looked to FNC for news and what do I find? Ron Paul, Maxine Waters, and Rove. Sheesh. We are being very under-served.
techno_barbarian on September 25, 2008 at 4:23 PM
Where’s AP now? Is he sad? Why isn’t this an obligatory post? – Fuquay
He’s in his mom’s basement … oooops, I mean, his ‘command center’ like the “Warlock” guy in “Die Hard 4″! haha
Tony737 on September 25, 2008 at 4:39 PM
This election might depend strongly on what happens over the next few days. A bailout of some kind will probably be needed, but if McCain and the Republicans can work some conservative principles into it, McCain could get credit from conservatives for NOT giving away the store, and from independents for “saving” the economy, while Obama is left standing around whining about debates–would anybody really believe that Obama, THE most liberal Senator, could ever negotiate anything between bitterly divided parties?
Then McCain can go into the debates as the wise elder statesman able to negotiate difficult issues, and if Obama tries to counter him, McCain can say “I was there, and you didn’t do anything for this!”, and point to Franklin Raines and Jim Johnson as part of the problem, while McCain was part of the solution.
Since both the Gallup and Rasmussen polls are 3-day moving averages, we’ll need to wait 3 days after the final bailout bill is passed before we know the effect of the financial crisis on the election. The other polls are basically worthless, because the results can be skewed by including too many hard-core Democrats in the sample.
The problem with national polls (including Gallup and Rasmussen) is that they don’t show how the crucial STATES are voting. This election will probably be decided by six states: CO, FL, MI, OH, PA, and VA, with a total of 107 electoral votes. Since each state has two more electoral votes than the number of Representatives, this represents 107 – (6*2) = 95 Congressional districts, out of 435 total.
If we assume that the number of voters per Congressional district is about equal everywhere, the six critical states represent only 22% of the national electorate.
A national tracking poll might be skewed toward red states or blue states on a given day, then switch the next day, and this can drown out voting shifts in the swing states. A shift in a tracking poll might indicate Obama padding his margin in NY or McCain padding his margin in TX, but says very little about the trends in the swing states.
Polls? Let’s wait
for swing states
after debates.
I’m a poet and don’t know it?
Steve Z on September 25, 2008 at 5:42 PM
I smell plastic grass.
Excerpted from a piece at the NYT Caucus via a link at Drudge:
Two liberal groups – one of them directed by a brother of the Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean – will begin running a graphic attack advertisement Thursday morning raising questions about Senator John McCain’s health.
…
The commercial is among the harshest to run against Mr. McCain yet, seeking to exploit the sensitive issues of health and age. Officials with the groups running the ad, Brave New PAC and Democracy for America, said they were only showing the spot initially on MSNBC over the next few days, a limited run intended to draw news media attention on a network that has increasingly catered to liberal tastes.
Officials at the groups, both of which are political action committees that rely on individual donors, said they hoped to show the spot on stations in battleground states in the coming weeks as well. But it is unclear if individual stations will accept the spot: Leighton Akio Woodhouse, a spokesman for Brave New PAC, said late Wednesday that CNN declined to accept the commercial after reviewing its contents this week.
Imagine how bad this ad must be if CNN won’t run it.
Y-not on September 25, 2008 at 5:46 PM
So much for Obama’s rebound
-
-
Fishing
Jamson64 on September 25, 2008 at 5:52 PM
How many folks could tell us where Obama/McCain sat on August 14th — without looking it up?
I’m so damn tired of polls, and of people acting like they make any difference to anybody other than campaign managers trying to figure out where to put their money and their candidate next. The guys have been criss crossing each other for months, and the only thing that’s really different is that the flipping spread is more extreme. That kind of volatility, makes the polls today even more meaningless than ever for predictions — assuming less than zero counts.
JM Hanes on September 25, 2008 at 6:01 PM
JM Hanes:
It does get tiring, but everybody loves the horse race – and besides, now’s the time when trends should solidifying, with the debates having an effect (i.e., if we have debates…).
Donald Douglas on September 25, 2008 at 6:05 PM
testing
Jamson64 on September 25, 2008 at 9:43 PM
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