This is a golden opportunity for McCain as a U.S. Senator to get a general bailout plan of his own put together with Mitt, Forbes, etc. and push it out there to help America.

He cannot ride the skirt of Sarah to win this election. It is about him and how he can now show leadership on the Economy as opposed to only Foreign Policy.

Golden Opportunity, but he needs to move VERY quick to sieze the initiative.

Sapwolf on September 24, 2008 at 1:24 PM

Rome wasn’t re-built in a day.

McCain has had a theory of the race that he’s been executing since before Schmidt took over, and has been executing with great discipline ever since then. The only thing that would change it substantially would be if the internal polling – much more expensive and extensive than these public polls – showed the ticket behind schedule and losing contact with the opposition.

I believe that generally the ticket has been doing better than expected, to the point even of getting ahead of itself a couple of weeks ago. It’s not quite the best case scenario, which would have been an always extremely unlikely complete Obama implosion, but it has a much better, potentially decisive opportunity across the Upper Midwest through the Rust Belt to Pennsylvania than most informed observers would have considered conceivable if asked to predict the course of the race six months ago. In short, the campaign likely believes that it can afford to cede some territory in Virginia and Florida while going on offense in big states where Obama underperformed during the primaries and the Democrats have other vulnerabilities. How Colorado fits in is harder to say, but, if it’s more likely necessary for Obama than necessary for McCain in a very tight race.

Otherwise, those of us overreacting to the day’s headlines, personal or pundit perspectives on how the message is coming across, or worst of all to individual opinion polls, are like soldiers on the front lines grousing about the general’s strategy. If the general doesn’t know what he’s doing, then we’re sunk anyway. If the enemy is overwhelmingly superior (e.g., Wash Post/ABC poll), then we’re sunk anyway.

Meanwhile, all you can do is keep fighting, and, if your hilltop is overrun, that may be a problem for you, but it could just as well be part of the larger design. No one promised that being a pawn in a 100-million piece chess game would be easy.

Urban voter turnout will be the largest EVER (many of them will be fraudulent, but that’s another story). If suburban and rural voters turnout in similar or larger percentages, McCain wins it. If not, it belongs to Obama. lionheart on September 24, 2008 at 11:51 AM

Let’s not forget how Obama got trounced in PA by Hilary. Why? He couldn’t earn the trust of the blue collar voters, according to CW. McCain needs to repeat the bitter-clingers quote as often as possible. Palin does it because she’s the one with the gun creds. Heck, let her do a tour of PA. The way I see it, McCain has got to win PA. VA may well go blue, and even though Bush one it in 8+ points in 2000 and ’04. The population in Northern VA has been exploding, and that is where the blues hang out.

Sigh. We need to get rid of this economic news! Hopefully, things look better a month from now.

I think if they did this, Palin could put California back in play

There is no chance in Hell of California coming into play for Republicans. Any time and money spent there would just be a waste….of time and money.

Obama is running ads that based on complete lies here in Florida, but they look damaging to McCain.

He’s running and ad about Corning closing a plant and losing jobs and McCain outsourcing those jobs; but in reality it never happened in a way even remotely similar to that (Corning even released a statement to that effect).

The media won’t report on Obama’s willful lies; so McCain has a major uphill battle.

Look, you know I want McCain to win. But 2 out of the last 4 weeks, McCain is playing victim here. Last week, on Friday he tried to go on the attack but was drowned out.

And given that this crisis is the best chance for McCain to show leadership and he isn’t doing it (even will be practically begged to lead by the Senate), is troubling. All McCain needs to go is call up Newt and Mitt and some alternate plan together, call for the resignation of Rangel, Dodd and possibly Reid. Get his bill to the floor for a vote. And he’ll win this thing. Why isn’t he doing it?

lorien1973 on September 24, 2008 at 11:39 AM

Right on Lorien.

This is a golden opportunity for McCain as a U.S. Senator to get a general bailout plan of his own put together with Mitt, Forbes, etc. and push it out there to help America.

He cannot ride the skirt of Sarah to win this election. It is about him and how he can now show leadership on the Economy as opposed to only Foreign Policy.

Golden Opportunity, but he needs to move VERY quick to sieze the initiative.

PBS is doing an interesting poll on Sarah Palin asking if she is qualified. Thought you all would like to vote as well…. since it is pretty much a liberal polling.

Off subject, but the line is a Star Wars staple… Obi Wan’s first line in Eposide I, but repeated in every episode by five different characters.

VastRightWingConspirator on September 24, 2008 at 1:11 PM

Episode 1? What’s that?

Oh by the way I heard that Rasmussen is saying McCain is up 2% in NH now. I did some figuring and if RCP drops the old CNN poll showing Obama at 6% then it makes it pretty closed to tied on the RCP average in NH. Maybe a slight Obama lean.

petunia on September 24, 2008 at 12:27 PM

RCP has Obama up 2% now. I think I must have messed up on the math before because it looks right.

To quote Obi Wan… I’ve got a bad feeling about this.

VastRightWingConspirator on September 24, 2008 at 11:53 A
That was Han Solo.

Look at it this way. One way or another you wont have to get sick every morning looking at polls.

Chuck Schick on September 24, 2008 at 12:12 PM

Off subject, but the line is a Star Wars staple… Obi Wan’s first line in Eposide I, but repeated in every episode by five different characters.

But yes, the polls — and what they say about our National IQ — are sickening.

Andrea Mitchell, NBC: What are the risks showing in your internals on the economy? Can that give the Democrats some leverage?
What, is Andrea data mining for Obama?

Dusty on September 24, 2008 at 12:36 PM

YES

Chuck Schick on September 24, 2008 at 12:11 PM

I found that the polls in August-September 2006 showed a dead heat 47-47. Just before the election those opposed to it were in couraged (no numbers) by the recent polls. But after the election they determined that the exit poll had proved very unreliable.

Hmmm interesting. But Obama still has a 5-6% lead there so it is not too likely. Though I think I heard Scott Rasmussen say that things were probably more fluid in MI than the polls suggested. Maybe he had this situation in mind.

If McCain can get this financial stuff behind us.
He could improve the current numbers by quite alot.

George Bennett, Palm Beach Post: Florida polling has fluctuated with independents; McCain leads in some, Obama in others. How do you see them breaking?

According to RCP’s list, since the end of June, the breakdown on who was a ahead:

McCain – 16 polls
Obama – 4 polls
Tie – 3

Since just before the convention (Quinnipac’s 08/17 – 08/24:

McCain – 10 polls
Obama – 2 polls
Tie – 3

FWIW

Andrea Mitchell, NBC: What are the risks showing in your internals on the economy? Can that give the Democrats some leverage?

What, is Andrea data mining for Obama?

However, the biggest problem for McCain is that the MSM is a fourth branch of government and is pulling a coup de etat by totally protecting Obama, their guy.

petunia on September 24, 2008 at 12:27 PM

They are gonna be in CO a lot anyways, maybe NM. So they are there anyways. Make it a Saturday or Sunday – McCain always takes one of those two days off.

If McCain can do good in the first debate, and Sarah pulls a tie vs. Joe, then McCain can loosen the leash on Sarah and let her reach out to Americans more.

By the way, assuming McCain holds Ohio and Florida and Virginia, and assuming Obama picks up Iowa, then Obama wins if he picks up Colorado due to the electoral tie being decided by more Dems in legislatures (tiebreaker).

McCain must hold Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Virgina. If he wins these five states, Obama will not win because it would be a bellweather that Obama can only pick up Iowa and New Mexico at most which is not enough. Also, McCain has to not let Obama sneak in and take IN.

Florida
Ohio
Virgina
Colorado

These four will probably determine the election.

Wildcard: if McCain picks off Pennsylvania, he’ll win Ohio too and the election due to Florida probably following suit.

It’s not about CA, it’s about getting a massive audience for a major policy speech. That’ll yell and scream every time she digs into democrats.

lorien1973 on September 24, 2008 at 12:22 PM

Yes, I guess they will have to weigh that against the whole day it would take away from campaigning in the Mid-West and East.

Oh by the way I heard that Rasmussen is saying McCain is up 2% in NH now. I did some figuring and if RCP drops the old CNN poll showing Obama at 6% then it makes it pretty closed to tied on the RCP average in NH. Maybe a slight Obama lean.

That’s the problem with the media being the Ministry of Propaganda for the Democrat Party.

This is where Orwell had it wrong. The government doesn’t need to control the media, when the media obliges and only decides to cover one side or the other on its own.

I think he has a great shot at Mi. If theres one blue state where Dems popularity is weak right now, its there.

Remember the affirmative action ban in 2006? That is one of the few things that really shocked me in that election.

Polls had it down double digits. Exit polls had it losing comfortably. It won 58% of the vote.

Chuck Schick on September 24, 2008 at 12:11 PM

Really? That is the first I’ve heard about a affirmitive action ban. That actually sounds like a Bradley effect in the exit polling. Hmmmm I haven’t thought the Bradley effect was real… Maybe in MI it is.

petunia on September 24, 2008 at 12:20 PM

It’s not about CA, it’s about getting a massive audience for a major policy speech. That’ll yell and scream every time she digs into democrats.

Sarah, the guest room is ready!

VastRightWingConspirator on September 24, 2008 at 11:58 AM

Isn’t there a 16-20% gap? I can’t see wasting time in CA. Maybe if there wasn’t so much work to do in other places.