Team McCain conference call: Polling
posted at 11:18 am on September 24, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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It’s been a while since I’ve jumped onto a Team McCain conference call, but today’s sounded interesting. They had Bill McInturff, their lead pollster, on hand to explain his analysis of John McCain’s standing in the race. With most public polls showing an incredibly close race on a national and state-by-state basis, except for the WaPo/ABC survey out today, it gave the media a chance to question McCain’s own pollsters about what they’re seeing.
McInturff says that the data has been remarkably stable throughout the month, despite the “extraordinary” events of the last couple of weeks. That’s true on a national basis as well as by state. A dozen states remain in the margin of error. McInturff looked at those states on a week-by-week basis, and it shows McCain weakening by two points in three weeks — well within the margins of error.
He then addressed the WaPo/ABC poll, and started it by giving us a quick rundown of his own experiences in media polling. He says the people who ran this survey “professionals” and “very competent”, but this is clearly an outlier. McInturff points out the same 16-point difference between Democrats and Republicans as an indication that their sample is far out of tolerance. It should be somewhere between four and nine points, and nothing anywhere indicates a sixteen-point gap in party identification. In fact, we’ve never seen this kind of gap in at least 25 years of polling, not even in 1992 or 2006, two difficult years for Republicans. They’re expecting a five-point gap.
Bottom line: this poll was an outlier, and they’re discounting it.
Questions:
- Carl Cameron, Fox: What’s the expectation for party-ID gap? McInturff hopes it stays within 4 points, and thinks right now it’s between 6-8 points. All of the internal polling shows that range. He thinks that McCain can win in that gap, and will feel really good about it getting within 4.
- Craig Gilbert, Milwaukee Journal: Is there now a consensus about the financial meltdown being a regulatory failure, and does that help McCain or hurt him? Strictly on a polling aspect, the consensus hasn’t quite jelled. The data still seems stable regardless. It’s not affecting the presidential race polling.
- Andrea Mitchell, NBC: What are the risks showing in your internals on the economy? Can that give the Democrats some leverage? Again, strictly from a polling issue, the economy has now scored even higher as the most important issue for the voter. That opens energy, taxes, and regulation up as important issues for the campaign.
- David Helling, KC Star: What volatility can we expect from the upcoming debates, and what’s it looking like in Missouri? Hard to say what will happen. Debates are a big unknown, and will have to be measured day-to-day. We won’t know the effect until after the last one.
- George Bennett, Palm Beach Post: Florida polling has fluctuated with independents; McCain leads in some, Obama in others. How do you see them breaking? Most pollsters ask the party-registration question, which overrepresents the effect of moderates. He sees the state breaking to McCain, and everything he sees, McCain is meeting the usual model for success in Florida. Still close, but they’re optimistic.
- Major Garrett, Fox: Team O believes that Republican GOTV efforts plumbed the entirety of GOP voters in 2004, but they have much more potential voters to find. — Their polling takes that into account. McInturff says that he expects 7 million more voters in this election than in 2004. But the polling still remains very stable.
- John Dickerson, Slate: Who are the “swing voters”? They generally analyze these as those who profess some potential in moving their support, which comprises about 20% of the electorate.
- Laura Meckler, WSJ: How is McCain’s populist economic message playing? It’s been effective because he’s credible. He put people in jail, including Republicans, for corruption. McCain has a lifetime record of opposing big special interests.
- Chuck Rush, Gannett: Has the Palin effect receded in recent polling? And does the WaPo poll reframe expectations going into the debates? She got 60,000 people to show up in Florida, so it’s obviously not fading. The financial meltdown has taken Palin off the front page, which is understandable, but she’s still generating the same enthusiasm she did when she entered the race.
- Ken Herman, Cox Newspapers: Is it possible that the debates won’t move the numbers? Sure. It’s almost impossible to predict.
- Jonathan Martin, Politico: What 2004 blue states do you think gives you the best opportunities? They don’t want to discuss internal polling, but he’d refer back to the list of states within the margin of error — like Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, etc. It’s no secret that the election will be fought there.
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Worrisome that McCain refuses to get out in front with leadership on the bailout.
Huge opportunity, huge risks, but judgement would be key.
Starlink on September 24, 2008 at 11:22 AM
If McCain can’t take one of those blue states, it all rests on CO.
lodge on September 24, 2008 at 11:23 AM
If the truth about the mortgage mess was accurately reported, the race would not be close. If McCain can even get the message across that he tried to impose rationality on Fran and Fred two years ago, same result.
Vashta.Nerada on September 24, 2008 at 11:23 AM
I hope the numbers are accurate!
canopfor on September 24, 2008 at 11:25 AM
I think he’ll take MI, maybe PA, but I also think he’ll lose some other red states and lose very narrowly.
I’m almost prepped for a 269-269 nightmare scenario.
Obama; selected not elected Dem Nominee; selected not elected President.
LOL
McCain’s inability to improve his numbers - he seems steady at 47 or 48 worries me. Seems like he peaks then falls, peaks then falls. He cannot maintain a lead in swing states.
lorien1973 on September 24, 2008 at 11:28 AM
The only red state I see him possibly losing is VA. If VA goes blue, Obama wins. If PA goes red, McCain wins. If VA goes red and PA goes blue, then CO (and maybe NM) will decide the election.
lodge on September 24, 2008 at 11:30 AM
At the debates, if McCain makes his point about the finanical crisis, he then gets torn apart by the media the next day, and even though you can guarantee the msm will lie and mislead, the retractions will never be reported. I have never seen the bias exhibited at this election before.
Blake on September 24, 2008 at 11:30 AM
If McCain could flip PA, he could lose Iowa, NM, NV and Colorado and still win. I’d be putting my money into PA and CO and trying to hold onto VA, OH and FL. But overall I think McCain’s run a much better campaign than Obama, so I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt that they know what they’re doing **cough**lorien**cough**.
BadgerHawk on September 24, 2008 at 11:31 AM
I’ve got a local politician friend who works on the Republican effort here in MA and said that the only people that seem to really care about the whole bailout issue is the political junkies like us. Regular folk just don’t care because there are much more pressing issues like the cost of living and all the layoffs up here. He thinks McCain will win because people are not stupid and are getting the feeling the BO stinks. The same thing was told to me by a Democratic Committee Chair a few days ago. Both agreed that McCain would have had a harder time if Clinton was the pick and maybe even if she was the VP pick. Both think Palin was a good move but in the final analysis not enough to base voting on.
jmarcure on September 24, 2008 at 11:38 AM
Obama is running ads that based on complete lies here in Florida, but they look damaging to McCain.
He’s running and ad about Corning closing a plant and losing jobs and McCain outsourcing those jobs; but in reality it never happened in a way even remotely similar to that (Corning even released a statement to that effect).
The media won’t report on Obama’s willful lies; so McCain has a major uphill battle.
Look, you know I want McCain to win. But 2 out of the last 4 weeks, McCain is playing victim here. Last week, on Friday he tried to go on the attack but was drowned out.
And given that this crisis is the best chance for McCain to show leadership and he isn’t doing it (even will be practically begged to lead by the Senate), is troubling. All McCain needs to go is call up Newt and Mitt and some alternate plan together, call for the resignation of Rangel, Dodd and possibly Reid. Get his bill to the floor for a vote. And he’ll win this thing. Why isn’t he doing it?
lorien1973 on September 24, 2008 at 11:39 AM
After the large rally in Florida for Palin… do you really think that McCain doesn’t have Florida?
Michigan… I don’t see it not flipping over to McCain either.
Ohio… hmmm, well Ohio I think is losing it’s luster for a political running State anymore. This is speaking from someone who has tons of family there as well.
CO.. well that will be interesting. And why I say this is the liberals are rampant there… the conservatives are quiet and done come out of the hole much. I wonder if this election it will change.
upinak on September 24, 2008 at 11:40 AM
I think McCain will win Florida, simply because we have voter ID here now. Dead people can’t vote anymore.
lorien1973 on September 24, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Not sure if I understand what you mean.
lorien1973 on September 24, 2008 at 11:43 AM
I’m just giving you a hard time. I agree that McCain is fighting uphill, but with the exception of the last 10 days he’s done a pretty damn good job of it.
Hopefully when push comes to shove McCain will take leadership on this issue and show Americans that he’s really a guy they can count on in a time of crisis. We’ll see.
BadgerHawk on September 24, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Nice photo of McCain with Palin. But if he does not turn her loose, and let her speak heart-to-heart with voters, she’s destined to become the answer to a Trivial Pursuit question.
The polls show that Palinmania has faded… because she’s so under wraps and “over-handled”: the longer Team McCain sequesters her, the more the Left’s “Artic Bimbo” allegations are going to stick.
C’mon, Mav, it’s time to start playing like you really WANT to win this thing!
VastRightWingConspirator on September 24, 2008 at 11:45 AM
I think there is another side to that…this election remains about Obama. My guess is that there are 55-60% of this country that are comfortable with McCain, I don’t think that Obama has quite that much support…but he is a new fresh face, so people try him on for size every once in awhile, knowing that they can always go back to the comfort of a McCain presidency.
The debates will decide this election, and if people become more comfortable with Obama, he wins, and likely by a close but solid margin. If Obama doesn’t close the deal, the old comfortable McCain is right there and I believe he wins in a landslide. This election, despite the entry of Palin, is really about Obama.
joepub on September 24, 2008 at 11:47 AM
All we can hope is that he’s waiting for October, for when people really start paying attention.
Drudge had a story earlier in the week; where if Palin went to CA, it’d be the biggest political event, ever, in that state. They should do it and make a brand new speech for her where she rips apart the democrat party. She’s a rare person who can be nasty and nice at the same time - with that smile of hers. Do it, man.
Not really for CA, but for the press it’d guarantee. They will obviously be in CO anyways a lot, so may as well make a point of doing it.
lorien1973 on September 24, 2008 at 11:48 AM
Have you ever noticed that no political candidates like to go to Ohio anymore?
It is a state that sits on the fence and doesn’t move. I have relatives there that I can’t stand talking to because they are like talking to a wall or a tree and about the same personality as well.
upinak on September 24, 2008 at 11:50 AM
Ignore every poll in Pennsylvania. NOBODY can know what is going to happen there, because:
Urban voter turnout will be the largest EVER (many of them will be fraudulent, but that’s another story). If suburban and rural voters turnout in similar or larger percentages, McCain wins it. If not, it belongs to Obama.
lionheart on September 24, 2008 at 11:51 AM
Not if I have anything to say about it.
Let’s roll.
ex-Democrat on September 24, 2008 at 11:51 AM
A few weeks ago I had alot of confidence in Mac’s team, right now, not so much…
I guess they realize that nothing will change until the debate
joepub on September 24, 2008 at 11:52 AM
I dunno about that… I think it’s really about President Bush, and the sentiment to “teach him a lesson.” He’s not running, obviously, so the libs are going to get their poud of flesh out of anyone with an R after their name. I think what the pools are showing is that people want an anti-Bush… because they are anti-war, anti-Wall Street, anti-rich, anti-life, anti-handgun, anti-immigration reform, etc.
To quote Obi Wan… I’ve got a bad feeling about this.
VastRightWingConspirator on September 24, 2008 at 11:53 AM
- McCain is not getting his message out that he tried to prevent this. He showed leadership and saw the problem.
- The Republican party is not getting the message out that it was the Democrats who are to blame for this mess.
- McCain is not getting the message out that the years Obama has been in the Senate he has done nothing regarding this mess. Where was the Obama leadership? Obama voted with other Democrats when the Republicans tried to make change.
- McCain is not getting the message out strong enough regarding Obama’s connections to Freddie and Fannie and contributions from employees of the two companies.
——–
McCain is hiding Palin too much…wasting her talents.
(Or does McCain have second thoughts about her?)
albill on September 24, 2008 at 11:53 AM
That’s what I expect to happen. Mac will win the same states Bush did in 2000, except maybe CO. Obama will win the same states Gore won in 2000. I think that CO of 2008 will be the OH of 2004 and the FL of 2000.
crushliberalism on September 24, 2008 at 11:58 AM
I think if they did this, Palin could put California back in play. I live in North County/San Diego, and I think she would galvanize and reenergize all those Republican California voters who don’t think their votes will matter in the tsunami of votes from San Francisco/ Hollywood/ illegals. Local talk radio would love her.
Sarah, the guest room is ready!
VastRightWingConspirator on September 24, 2008 at 11:58 AM
When the Democrats who are wholly and completely responsible for our financial problems, are able to get away with not taking responsibility and even are able (with our worthless media’s help), blame it on Republicans, of course more rubes are going to vote for Democrats.
That’s the problem with the media being the Ministry of Propaganda for the Democrat Party.
Not only does the media help elect Democrats, it will never blame them for the damage they do to the country.
How could they? They’re the ones who get Democrats elected.
If we had a fair media in this country, the Democrat Party would be less popular than rabid bats and most Democrat politicians would be imprisoned for their crimes.
NoDonkey on September 24, 2008 at 11:59 AM
I have the same feeling…BUT! its early…
I agree–cut Palin loose…She is the only gamechanger we’ve got.
joepub on September 24, 2008 at 12:02 PM
If Al Gore couldn’t win Virginia, while being kinda sorta a Southerner, there is no way Obama, with no Southern connections, can win it.
Speedwagon82 on September 24, 2008 at 12:05 PM
Why didn’t AP ask : What is the effect of anti-Palin polls? Does it energize the followers or depress them? Could it just p*** them off?
Fuquay Steve on September 24, 2008 at 12:08 PM
I think he has a great shot at Mi. If theres one blue state where Dems popularity is weak right now, its there.
Remember the affirmative action ban in 2006? That is one of the few things that really shocked me in that election.
Polls had it down double digits. Exit polls had it losing comfortably. It won 58% of the vote.
Chuck Schick on September 24, 2008 at 12:11 PM
That was Han Solo.
Look at it this way. One way or another you wont have to get sick every morning looking at polls.
Chuck Schick on September 24, 2008 at 12:12 PM
Isn’t there a 16-20% gap? I can’t see wasting time in CA. Maybe if there wasn’t so much work to do in other places.
petunia on September 24, 2008 at 12:20 PM
It’s not about CA, it’s about getting a massive audience for a major policy speech. That’ll yell and scream every time she digs into democrats.
lorien1973 on September 24, 2008 at 12:22 PM
Really? That is the first I’ve heard about a affirmitive action ban. That actually sounds like a Bradley effect in the exit polling. Hmmmm I haven’t thought the Bradley effect was real… Maybe in MI it is.
petunia on September 24, 2008 at 12:24 PM
This is where Orwell had it wrong. The government doesn’t need to control the media, when the media obliges and only decides to cover one side or the other on its own.
lorien1973 on September 24, 2008 at 12:24 PM
Yes, I guess they will have to weigh that against the whole day it would take away from campaigning in the Mid-West and East.
Oh by the way I heard that Rasmussen is saying McCain is up 2% in NH now. I did some figuring and if RCP drops the old CNN poll showing Obama at 6% then it makes it pretty closed to tied on the RCP average in NH. Maybe a slight Obama lean.
petunia on September 24, 2008 at 12:27 PM
McCain does need to get Sarah out more and talk to the American people directly, BUT she has to study and practice a lot for the VP debate.
If McCain can do good in the first debate, and Sarah pulls a tie vs. Joe, then McCain can loosen the leash on Sarah and let her reach out to Americans more.
By the way, assuming McCain holds Ohio and Florida and Virginia, and assuming Obama picks up Iowa, then Obama wins if he picks up Colorado due to the electoral tie being decided by more Dems in legislatures (tiebreaker).
McCain must hold Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Virgina. If he wins these five states, Obama will not win because it would be a bellweather that Obama can only pick up Iowa and New Mexico at most which is not enough. Also, McCain has to not let Obama sneak in and take IN.
Florida
Ohio
Virgina
Colorado
These four will probably determine the election.
Wildcard: if McCain picks off Pennsylvania, he’ll win Ohio too and the election due to Florida probably following suit.
Sapwolf on September 24, 2008 at 12:28 PM
They are gonna be in CO a lot anyways, maybe NM. So they are there anyways. Make it a Saturday or Sunday - McCain always takes one of those two days off.
lorien1973 on September 24, 2008 at 12:28 PM
Yes, the ecomony/financial news is hurting McCain more than Obama, and McCain is not projecting a focused response incorporating leadership with direction of who stopped the attempt to fix things back two years ago. Hint: Dems in the Senate stopped it.
However, the biggest problem for McCain is that the MSM is a fourth branch of government and is pulling a coup de etat by totally protecting Obama, their guy.
Sapwolf on September 24, 2008 at 12:33 PM
What, is Andrea data mining for Obama?
Dusty on September 24, 2008 at 12:36 PM
According to RCP’s list, since the end of June, the breakdown on who was a ahead:
McCain - 16 polls
Obama - 4 polls
Tie - 3
Since just before the convention (Quinnipac’s 08/17 - 08/24:
McCain - 10 polls
Obama - 2 polls
Tie - 3
FWIW
Dusty on September 24, 2008 at 12:45 PM
I was intriqued by the Affirmative action ban in MI. Nod to:
I found that the polls in August-September 2006 showed a dead heat 47-47. Just before the election those opposed to it were in couraged (no numbers) by the recent polls. But after the election they determined that the exit poll had proved very unreliable.
Hmmm interesting. But Obama still has a 5-6% lead there so it is not too likely. Though I think I heard Scott Rasmussen say that things were probably more fluid in MI than the polls suggested. Maybe he had this situation in mind.
If McCain can get this financial stuff behind us.
He could improve the current numbers by quite alot.
petunia on September 24, 2008 at 12:46 PM
YES
petunia on September 24, 2008 at 12:49 PM
Off subject, but the line is a Star Wars staple… Obi Wan’s first line in Eposide I, but repeated in every episode by five different characters.
But yes, the polls — and what they say about our National IQ — are sickening.
VastRightWingConspirator on September 24, 2008 at 1:11 PM
RCP has Obama up 2% now. I think I must have messed up on the math before because it looks right.
petunia on September 24, 2008 at 1:12 PM
Episode 1? What’s that?
Chuck Schick on September 24, 2008 at 1:15 PM
http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.html
PBS is doing an interesting poll on Sarah Palin asking if she is qualified. Thought you all would like to vote as well…. since it is pretty much a liberal polling.
upinak on September 24, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Right on Lorien.
This is a golden opportunity for McCain as a U.S. Senator to get a general bailout plan of his own put together with Mitt, Forbes, etc. and push it out there to help America.
He cannot ride the skirt of Sarah to win this election. It is about him and how he can now show leadership on the Economy as opposed to only Foreign Policy.
Golden Opportunity, but he needs to move VERY quick to sieze the initiative.
Sapwolf on September 24, 2008 at 1:24 PM
There is no chance in Hell of California coming into play for Republicans. Any time and money spent there would just be a waste….of time and money.
xblade on September 24, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Since this is the thread about polls, more bad news. Fox just said their poll of RV I think showed Obama up 6.
Sigh. We need to get rid of this economic news! Hopefully, things look better a month from now.
petunia on September 24, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Let’s not forget how Obama got trounced in PA by Hilary. Why? He couldn’t earn the trust of the blue collar voters, according to CW. McCain needs to repeat the bitter-clingers quote as often as possible. Palin does it because she’s the one with the gun creds. Heck, let her do a tour of PA. The way I see it, McCain has got to win PA. VA may well go blue, and even though Bush one it in 8+ points in 2000 and ‘04. The population in Northern VA has been exploding, and that is where the blues hang out.
smellthecoffee on September 24, 2008 at 1:49 PM
There is going to unprecidented voter fraud in this election. That is something you have to take in account. It will make up for some of the bradley effect.
kangjie on September 24, 2008 at 2:03 PM
Rome wasn’t re-built in a day.
McCain has had a theory of the race that he’s been executing since before Schmidt took over, and has been executing with great discipline ever since then. The only thing that would change it substantially would be if the internal polling - much more expensive and extensive than these public polls - showed the ticket behind schedule and losing contact with the opposition.
I believe that generally the ticket has been doing better than expected, to the point even of getting ahead of itself a couple of weeks ago. It’s not quite the best case scenario, which would have been an always extremely unlikely complete Obama implosion, but it has a much better, potentially decisive opportunity across the Upper Midwest through the Rust Belt to Pennsylvania than most informed observers would have considered conceivable if asked to predict the course of the race six months ago. In short, the campaign likely believes that it can afford to cede some territory in Virginia and Florida while going on offense in big states where Obama underperformed during the primaries and the Democrats have other vulnerabilities. How Colorado fits in is harder to say, but, if it’s more likely necessary for Obama than necessary for McCain in a very tight race.
Otherwise, those of us overreacting to the day’s headlines, personal or pundit perspectives on how the message is coming across, or worst of all to individual opinion polls, are like soldiers on the front lines grousing about the general’s strategy. If the general doesn’t know what he’s doing, then we’re sunk anyway. If the enemy is overwhelmingly superior (e.g., Wash Post/ABC poll), then we’re sunk anyway.
Meanwhile, all you can do is keep fighting, and, if your hilltop is overrun, that may be a problem for you, but it could just as well be part of the larger design. No one promised that being a pawn in a 100-million piece chess game would be easy.
CK MacLeod on September 24, 2008 at 2:32 PM
fired up - yes; panic - NO. Polls are designed by flawed individuals and can be imperfect. I messed with a pollster just this afternoon. I’m sure I’m not the only one. Nevertheless, the results of any poll should not lessen anyones enthusiasm. The results should make O overconfident (start printing new coins) and with a committed base - the Palin ticket will be victorious.
Fuquay Steve on September 24, 2008 at 3:54 PM