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Open thread: Bush pitches the Paulson plan to America; Update: Paulson reaches deal with Democrats?

posted at 8:38 pm on September 24, 2008 by Allahpundit
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9 p.m. ET all across the dial. Here’s your thread to sound off. Video later is possible but unlikely unless he really ratchets up the doomsday rhetoric and I can’t resist. While you wait, a tidbit that’s just crossing the wires. Did Dubya do his pal McCain a solid by dragging Obama to D.C.?

With extraordinary stakes on the line, President Bush has invited both presidential candidates and the leaders of the House and Senate to the White House on Thursday in hopes of securing a bill to rescue the economy.

Bush took the unusual step Wednesday night of calling Democratic Sen. Barack Obama directly to invite him to the meeting, White House press secretary Dana Perino said. An Obama spokesman said the senator would attend. The White House has also invited Republican Sen. John McCain.

Update: Here’s the joint McCain/Obama statement on the need to come together in this trying time in the spirit of etc etc etc.

Update: A “fragile” deal has been struck with the Democrats at least. Durbin expects a bill as early as tomorrow but debate through the weekend; where that leaves McCain vis-a-vis Friday night is anyone’s guess.

Senators described a very somber, serious meeting, with Paulson describing the risk of inaction and working hard to sell the plan to skeptical Democrats during the closed-door caucus meeting. Paulson said unemployment rates could approach 10 percent if the plan was not adopted, senators said, although he did indicate possible receptiveness to the idea of implementing it in stages. Such a plan, Paulson told senators, has worked in countries like Japan, where financial rescue plans were done in stages.

“He talked about the risks in the markets, the risk of the financial system locking up, the risk of companies not being able to borrow money, the risk of major firms failing, the risk of a substantial increase in unemployment,” said Conrad.

Update: Is Jim Johnson going to help prep The One before his meeting with Bush? He’s still advising the campaign, apparently.

Update: The GOP is balking and the Dems won’t jump alone:

Frank added that he believes Pelosi has a minimum threshold of Republican votes necessary to bring the bill forward, but he said he did not know what that number was.

“They’re not even close to having enough votes,” said Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), a freshman facing a tough reelection. “This has to be bipartisan.”


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I really don’t know what to think about this. I guess I will just let the people who know about economics fight it out and pray for the best.

terryannonline on September 24, 2008 at 10:47 PM

Floating Rock:

There was a real estate market before there was a subprime market. People used to buy houses with regular loans. And in some places the prices have not fallen because there are still people buying houses with regular mortgages, the real estate market is regional.

I think it could take years for the government to sell all those assets because it will take time for the markets to stabilize, but houses in some parts of the country will always be higher.

Terrye on September 24, 2008 at 10:47 PM

That dollar is based on my PERSONAL ability to provide value for it through hardwork.

Actually that’s not true since we went off the Gold standard. Even then the value of government issued money is a matter of perception. Alexander Hamilton wrote of this extensively when he invented the monetary system we now use.

The hard truth: The value of a dollar is based on YOUR FAITH THAT THE DOLLAR HAS VALUE. As the economy grinds to a halt that faith dries up too, massive inflation ensues and your labors have much much less value. In other words, an hours work today might get you dinner and a movie. Under worse conditions an hour might get you one slice off a loaf of bread.

JonPrichard on September 24, 2008 at 10:48 PM

and the market will continue to fall, IMO
I’m talking about the real-estate market.

FloatingRock on September 24, 2008 at 10:44 PM

They’re interconnected. The financial markets nowadays are ALL INTERCONNECTED…real estate, banking, insurance, stocks, bonds, futures, derivatives, etc. And not just here…internationally…US, Europe, Middle East, Asia. Pull out the bottom of a house of cards, and what happens? It all tumbles down.

That’s the cliff we’re on the precipice of.

When a huge tree falls in the forest, lots of little ones get killed by its fall. When WTC 1 and 2 fell, lots of other buildings were destroyed nearby also.

The degree of market sector and global interconnection, is what will make this a global depression.

Shirotayama on September 24, 2008 at 10:49 PM

Shirotayama,

Didn’t mean to frighten you, there… Yeah, I’m joking. I’m just afraid that too many people are looking for an easy way out, and not facing up to the fact that it’s going to be painful, regardless.

Apologies for the heart skip… I’ll do a better job of prefacing myself next time :)

creekspecter on September 24, 2008 at 10:49 PM

I think they are clueless as to what basics even are.

Terrye on September 24, 2008 at 10:44 PM

I think that says a lot about why we find ourselves in this situation now.

FloatingRock on September 24, 2008 at 10:49 PM

Creekspecter,

(Whew…wiping brow…)

Thanks, dude. Ya had me worried.

Shirotayama on September 24, 2008 at 10:51 PM

Last spring my brother in Oklahoma sold his house in 2 weeks. Here in southern Indiana I see houses everyday that have had for sale signs in their yards for two years.

Terrye on September 24, 2008 at 10:51 PM

Floating Rock:

No doubt.

Terrye on September 24, 2008 at 10:53 PM

That’s adorable. Main thing is, R’s hold practically all of the state level offices, and as a result, taxes are low, foreclosures are low, unemployment is low.

On the other hand, contentment is quite high here. I read a commenter a while back describe Texas’ “elbow room” and thought that was spot on.

RushBaby on September 24, 2008 at 9:40 PM

Just returned from a trip down to the beautiful and peaceful Texas hill country southwest of Austin and was very pleasantly surprised at all the McCain/Palin yard signs and bumper stickers. Saw a handful of Obambi stickers, but no yard signs.

I think the heartland has made up its mind and chosen McC/Palin.

techno_barbarian on September 24, 2008 at 10:54 PM

but like i said it is better than 20 years of poverty.

unseen on September 24, 2008 at 10:42 PM

Yeah, the loss should be a lot lower than the 700B and there is a chance of a profit, but I wouldn’t bet either way on that. But those who underestimate the gravity of the situation ( and you are obviously not among that group)ignore the substantial reduction in revenue to the treasury that would occur in a sharp recession/depression. It’s silly to assume the economy and tax receipts will be static when the “bailout” was only crafted to prevent economic collapse. The government and taxpayers pay either way, and under the bailout they have at least a chance of a profit.

phronesis on September 24, 2008 at 10:54 PM

One of Paulson’s proposals in the Blueprint that W referred to tonight is to establish a National Mortgage Original Oversight Commission whose job it would be to publicy evaluate state mortagage origination regulatory practices, their licensing and pre-licensing training and experience credentialing practices to credential mortgage lenders.

In essence, force the states to crack down on the industry to avoid embarrassment.

Shirotayama on September 24, 2008 at 10:54 PM

Yeah, the loss should be a lot lower than the 700B and there is a chance of a profit, but I wouldn’t bet either way on that. But those who underestimate the gravity of the situation ( and you are obviously not among that group)ignore the substantial reduction in revenue to the treasury that would occur in a sharp recession/depression. It’s silly to assume the economy and tax receipts will be static when the “bailout” was only crafted to prevent economic collapse. The government and taxpayers pay either way, and under the bailout they have at least a chance of a profit.

phronesis on September 24, 2008 at 10:54 PM

Indeed.

OK fellow conservatives, let’s take it from another angle:

With a nuclear Iran on the horizon, does the USA really have TIME to risk Great Depression II???

Shirotayama on September 24, 2008 at 10:55 PM

Don’t you remember that it only took about 1,700 Khmer Rouge to empty a city of one million people and herd them into the rice fields? Don’t you remember that the USSR gov’t core consisted of 17-45 people at any one time who were responsible for millions of deaths? Have you forgotten that Hillary Clinton, for all her dreaded political machinery, was defeated by some goofy upstart? Are you going to let the media or a lame-duck Republican President’s speech knock your dobber in the dirt? Stand up, my friend! Pick up your dobber and get on offense. Grow a mustache like John Bolton if you need some hair to make you feel like a free American again.

RushBaby on September 24, 2008 at 9:27 PM

OHHHHH Zappppppp … fu(#!n ay.

Benjamin9 on September 24, 2008 at 10:56 PM

There was a real estate market before there was a subprime market. People used to buy houses with regular loans. And in some places the prices have not fallen because there are still people buying houses with regular mortgages, the real estate market is regional.

Terrye on September 24, 2008 at 10:47 PM

If these loans are such an insignificant factor then why are so many people claiming that the sky is going to fall unless we embrace socialism before the week is out?

FloatingRock on September 24, 2008 at 10:57 PM

OHHHHH Zappppppp … fu(#!n ay.

Benjamin9 on September 24, 2008 at 10:56 PM

Dittoes.

Shirotayama on September 24, 2008 at 10:58 PM

Man, this crisis is prolly the BIGGEST freakin’ invitation the jihadis have had to hit us here that could ever possibly be.

Hit us when we’re down. It wouldn’t shock me if we have a terrorism October surprise.

Shirotayama on September 24, 2008 at 11:00 PM

Need to log off, folks.

MAY OUR GOVERNMENT DO THE RIGHT THING.
AND MAY GOD BLESS AMERICA AND ALL AMERICANS.

Shirotayama on September 24, 2008 at 11:01 PM

Actually that’s not true since we went off the Gold standard. Even then the value of government issued money is a matter of perception. Alexander Hamilton wrote of this extensively when he invented the monetary system we now use.

The hard truth: The value of a dollar is based on YOUR FAITH THAT THE DOLLAR HAS VALUE. As the economy grinds to a halt that faith dries up too, massive inflation ensues and your labors have much much less value. In other words, an hours work today might get you dinner and a movie. Under worse conditions an hour might get you one slice off a loaf of bread.

JonPrichard on September 24, 2008 at 10:48 PM

Hah! I was right about that. I was going to post that (about the gold standard) but then I had to admit to myself that I know bupkes about these things so I didn’t.

Which reminds me–not to go off topic–but I’ve always wondered if the Wizard of Oz was not a very complex political allegory about the debate about taking the dollar off the gold standard. Wizard of OZ (ounce), everything being green (greenbacks), then follow the yellow brick road (gold), Wicked Witch of the West, and East (US/Europe vs the Austro-Hungarian Empire). I always assumed the scarecrow, tin-man et al, all were caricatures of contemporary political figures, although the scarecrow could just be a metaphor for a “straw man,” the lion for fake courage; I don’t know nearly enough history to work it out. Anybody out there want to take a crack?

smellthecoffee on September 24, 2008 at 11:02 PM

phronesis on September 24, 2008 at 10:54 PM

funny you should mention tax revs. that is the next crisis coming. the federal tax reciepts grew over the last 8 years from around $2 trillion to around $3trillion. A lot of that tax increase was due to capital gains in the forms of stocks and real estate sales. since homes were going up that meant that the sales always showed a profit and thus was taxed. same with stocks. Now the home prices are falling and so are stocks. taxpayers ca take a $3,000 tax reduction per year for all stock loss. That means that more than likely people will have a $3,000 loss on thier 1040 for many years to come. The gov is not going to get anywhere close to $3 trillion in tax revs this year. Which means that unless gov cuts spending drastically we could be looking at a $1 trillion defiect next year.

People we are going broke. We need to get out house in order. We need to cut spending. The crisis are going to come quicker and quicker and finally overtake us unless the gov gets its act together.

unseen on September 24, 2008 at 11:06 PM

Smellthecoffee,

Actually, the debate over the “Wizard of Oz” centers around whether or not L. Frank Baum was using it as an allegory for his Populist stance from about 1896 on. I can go either way on this, since an argument can be made for or against, an Baum was never entirely forthcoming about it.

Nice point, though.

creekspecter on September 24, 2008 at 11:07 PM

smellthecoffee on September 24, 2008 at 11:02 PM

I’ve heard the wizard of Oz was actually about william jennings bryan style populism. Bimetalism and the like. At least that’s what my history teacher told me in high school. He was an extremely bright guy too, although he was a democrat.

phronesis on September 24, 2008 at 11:07 PM

creekspecter on September 24, 2008 at 11:07 PM

Beat me to it by a second.

phronesis on September 24, 2008 at 11:10 PM

creekspecter on September 24, 2008 at 11:07 PM

Bimetalism and the like. phronesis on September 24, 2008 at 11:07 PM

Now see here, phronesis, this here’s a G-rated blog (mostly). Heh. You sent me over to my funky wagon, all.

In economics, bimetallism is a monetary standard in which the value of the monetary unit can be expressed as a certain amount of gold or as a certain amount of silver; the ratio between the two metals is fixed by law. In economic history the debate took place primarily inside the United States in the late 19th century, as the U.S. was the only major country that was a large producer of both gold and silver. An alternative form of bimetallism, which has been proposed but never implemented would set the value of the monetary unit as a fixed amount of each of two metals, without a fixed relative value.

If that ain’t enough, go here.

Thanks for enlightening me, guys. Although I kind of liked my distorted, half-baked interpretation, so I’m going to act like a Democrat and go with it, in the face of you all’s obvious superior expertise. ;-)

smellthecoffee on September 24, 2008 at 11:25 PM

There was a real estate market before there was a subprime market. People used to buy houses with regular loans. And in some places the prices have not fallen because there are still people buying houses with regular mortgages, the real estate market is regional.

Terrye on September 24, 2008 at 10:47 PM

Arrrgggh! Why do you keep trying to tout these dastardly instruments, as if there is a positive side to this fiasco?

You can’t compare this situation to what happened in the past with the normal, cyclical ups and downs of real estate because the no-money-down subprime mortgage, heralded by groups like ACORN, was an entirely new invention.

Buy Danish on September 24, 2008 at 11:50 PM

Coffee,

You’ve earned some serious style points tonight, my friend. Thanks for the free silver reminder. Gives me more food for thought.

creekspecter on September 25, 2008 at 12:01 AM

We were warned a long time ago about this. It’s just Congress’ chickens comin’ home to roost.

Mojave Mark on September 25, 2008 at 12:33 AM

Congressman John Shadegg had a townhall over the phone tonight about this. One of his points was just how much money $700,000,000 is. He said the total cost of the Iraq war was something like $500,000,000. The cost for Obama’s healthcare program was something like $100,000,000.

This is a huge amount of money. I can’t believe Dodd and Frank let this get so out of control.

I think they need to be held accountable. They were the head of oversight and they didn’t do their jobs. They should be held criminally responsible.

petunia on September 25, 2008 at 12:39 AM

Just come to a decision and get this recession started already. It’s coming no matter what they do, and likely as not, both potential administrations will use their new power to nationalize the banking industry.

spmat on September 25, 2008 at 12:43 AM

One of Paulson’s proposals in the Blueprint that W referred to tonight is to establish a National Mortgage Original Oversight Commission whose job it would be to publicy evaluate state mortagage origination regulatory practices, their licensing and pre-licensing training and experience credentialing practices to credential mortgage lenders.

In essence, force the states to crack down on the industry to avoid embarrassment.

Shirotayama on September 24, 2008 at 10:54 PM

That is a good idea. The mortgage industry is so full of cheats and liars.

petunia on September 25, 2008 at 12:43 AM

Soooooooooooooo……………………

………. tomorrow go into a bank. Tell them you are an illegal alien, you have no proof of identity, income, and you want a loan. As they look at you in disbelief, just tell them that the current regulations on the books guarantee you a loan, and if they don’t give it to you, you will sue, and the bank will be hit with federal penalties set up by Democrats, i.e. Chris Dodd and Barney Frank.

……….. and someone once said “crime doesn’t pay.”

Then, see if that provision is taken out of the “New” regulations that Congress will “work through the night” to fix……… come Monday.

Anyone else want to put these crooks, i.e. Congress in jail…..?

Seven Percent Solution on September 25, 2008 at 1:01 AM

It’s funny…I watched this last night with my husband and, having not seen this open thread prior, I turned to him and said, “Good gosh. Doomsday, much?” Bush all but said we would be wearing rags fighting for moldy bread and gruel at a soup line unless we let this econ-nerd have billions of dollars. I especially liked when Bush said he has always championed conservative views of LESS government. WHEN has this president EVER limited government????? Good grief. Now I think he is a liar. So annoying.

Mommypundit on September 25, 2008 at 4:56 AM

It’s funny…I watched this last night with my husband and, having not seen this open thread prior, I turned to him and said, “Good gosh. Doomsday, much?” Bush all but said we would be wearing rags fighting for moldy bread and gruel at a soup line unless we let this econ-nerd have billions of dollars. I especially liked when Bush said he has always championed conservative views of LESS government. WHEN has this president EVER limited government????? Good grief. Now I think he is a liar. So annoying.

Mommypundit on September 25, 2008 at 4:56 AM

Mommypundit, have you read ALL of the preceding 5 pages of comment?

It’s NOT a matter of us being in rags because we have to give Paulson control of billions. We’d be in rags because the collapse of the credit markets and the collapse of money markets would SHUT DOWN ALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 5:43 AM

Sorry, accidentally hit the “enter button” and sent too soon.

Meant to say “ALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INCLUDING WHATEVER JOBS YOU AND YOUR KIDDIE’S FATHER HAVE TO SUPPORT THEM, FEED THEM, CLOTHE THEM, HOUSE THEM.”

The dollar would be WORTHLESS…no confidence in it since cash accounts (money market mutual funds) would have collapsed and broken the buck. Short-term loans that businesses use everyday to make payroll, send deliveries to satisfy customers (or the short term loans those customers make to buy stuff from you), just operate, would be GONE.

Great Depression II.

DO YOU WANT THAT FOR YOUR CHILDREN? If not, support this plan. It’s FAR less painful than what we’d otherwise face.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 5:47 AM

What party does MM exactly belong to? The one that ridicules it’s own leadership (President Bush)? The way she’s acted during this macro economic crisis has opened my eyes. Does she knows she’s got some great allies in people like Oliphant?

pc on September 25, 2008 at 5:52 AM

One of Paulson’s proposals in the Blueprint that W referred to tonight is to establish a National Mortgage Original Oversight Commission whose job it would be to publicy evaluate state mortagage origination regulatory practices, their licensing and pre-licensing training and experience credentialing practices to credential mortgage lenders.

In essence, force the states to crack down on the industry to avoid embarrassment.

Shirotayama on September 24, 2008 at 10:54 PM
That is a good idea. The mortgage industry is so full of cheats and liars.

petunia on September 25, 2008 at 12:43 AM

Petunia, Paulson had other ideas in the “Blueprint”. I’ll try to summarize them.

They’re broken out into short-term/immediate, mid-term, and long term recommendations. These are, in a nutshell:

Short-term:
#1: Currently, the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets includes the Treasury Secretary, the Fed Chairman, the chairmen of the SEC and CFTC (commodity & futures trading commission), but not the chairmen of FDIC, OCC, or OTS. First recommendation: Add them to the Working Group for better coordination across regulators
-Improve Oversight over Mortgage Origination by setting up a Federal Mortgage Origination Commission. We all know that we’ve seen dramatically increased mortgage delinquencies, defaults, and foreclosures by subprime and even prime mortgage borrowers from 2007 – 2008. Reason: Serious regulatory gaps in U.S. oversight over mortgage origination. In recent years mortgage brokers and lenders with no federal supervision at all originated a substantial portion of all mortgages and more than 50% of subprime mortgages in the U.S. Mortgage originators are subject to uneven degrees of state-level oversight, and in some cases, limited or no oversight at all. In response, Paulson proposes:

#2: The President should appoint the MOC Director to a 4 to 6 year term and the MOC Director would chair a 7-person board including heads of the Federal Reserve, OCC, OTS, FDIC, the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA), and a representative from the Conference of State Bank Supervisors
•Congressional legislation should give MOC authority to develop licensing qualification standards for state mortgage market participants, and that MOC would evaluate mortgage originators based on personal conduct and disciplinary history, and for meeting minimum educational requirements and testing criteria
•MOC would establish appropriate license revocation standards, and evaluate and report on the adequacy of each state’s system of licensing and regulation of mortgage originators. By MOC publicly grading state licensing systems and reporting on their strengths and weaknesses would enable better public assessment of whether mortgages originating in a state should be viewed cautiously by consumers and investors. The public nature of these evaluations would also provide strong incentives for states to address weaknesses and strengthen their own systems.
•Paulson also proposes allowing the Federal Reserve to retain sole responsibility and authority to draft regulations for national mortgage lending laws.

#3: Federal Reserve to use its discount window authority (e.g., liquidity provisioning) to non-depository institutions for the first time since the 1930’s. Due to significantly increased importance of non-depository institutions in recent years to overall market stability, Treasury proposes that appropriate conditions be attached to Federal Reserve discount window lending and that access to information about discount window borrowers’ liquidity and funding be made more available to the Federal Reserve (and thus to PWG) through on-site examinations, audits, and other means.

(Translation of #3: The current crisis largely happened in institutions outside FDIC and Fed and OCC/OTS control. To help keep markets from collapsing, the Fed for the first time in history gave non-banks access to its discount window for cash to keep themselves solvent. The rules around this are weak to nonexistent so they need to be set up, and these rules need to include audits of the institutions borrowing from the Fed to make sure they’re handling the money right.)

Mid-term Recommendations:
#1: Currently bank/thrift regulation is divvied up between OCC (national bank regulation) and OTS (thrift & savings and loan and credit union regulation). The latter category has become less important over time. Paulson proposes folding OTS into OCC and having all these depository institutions under just one regulator (a good idea…by all accounts I’ve heard, OCC is a much better-run organization.) Why do this? The regulatory rules are different. The latter category’s regulation rules aren’t as strict as the former’s. This would help “beef up” regulation of business behavior and bank/thrift solvency and would also establish a “level playing field” regulations-wise for banks across the board. They wouldn’t have the choice to pick which regulator.

#2: Currently bank instititution regulation is further divvied up between being regulated by the Fed if the bank is a member of the Federal Reserve system, or by FDIC. Paulson proposes making it one or the other, so that there will be a level playing field. This also would also establish a “level playing field” regulations-wise for banks across the board. They wouldn’t have the choice to pick which regulator.

In other words, fixing a bank regulation system that’s broken.

#4: Insurance Regulation: Currently ALL insurance companies (Including AIG) are regulated at STATE level not federal. This has been the case for over 135 years!!!! This may have been appropriate earlier in U.S. history but changes in the insurance marketplace have strained the existing system. Industry has moved from a local focus to a national focus, and the state-based regulation system makes development of national products cumbersome and costly, damaging insurance companies’ competitiveness. Nowadays the industry also operates globally, with many foreign participants. A state-based regulation system obstructs competition by making it harder for U.S.-based firms to compete abroad and for foreign firms to participate in the U.S. market. In response, Paulson proposed Congress set up:
•An Office of National Insurance (ONI) within the Department of the Treasury to regulate insurers’ incorporation, organization, and operation, and
•An Office of Insurance Oversight (OIO) within the Department of the Treasury to lead international regulatory negotiations and serve as an advisor to the Secretary on major insurance-related policy issues.

Paulson’s goal: to ensure safety and soundness (removing the need for another AIG-like rescue), enhance competition in national and international markets, increase efficiency by reducing regulatory costs (by having to deal with 2 federal regulators at Treasury instead of different rules by 50 states), providing federal consumer protections, eliminating price controls, promoting faster technological change, and encouraging product innovation

#5: Merge the SEC and the CFTC. Currently futures and securities markets are respectively regulated separately by the CTFC and SEC. These markets were totally separate and distinct in the 1930’s when the Commodity Exchange Act and the federal securities laws were enacted, but market convergence, globalization, and interconnection have since rendered such separate regulation inefficient and even potentially harmful. Paulson is recommending that that CFTC and SEC be merged into a new agency that would handle unified oversight and regulation of the futures and securities markets focused on investor protections, market integrity, and overall financial system risk reduction.

Long-term Recommendations:
#1: Set up a regulator for Overall Financial Market Stability. Paulson proposes this be the Federal Reserve since it’s been acting as the country’s central bank and trying to preserve market stability since its founding anyway…its scope would simply be expanded to cover all kinds of financial markets, not just only banks

#2: Set up a “Prudential Financial Regulator” to regulate all kinds of financial institutions that have federal insurance backing them up, such as banks, thrifts, credit unions, and…if this rescue plan passes, money market (cash) mutual funds.

#3: Set up an Overall “Business Conduct Regulator” to standardize the oversight of business conduct across all sectors of the finance industry including those currently regulated separately. This would take the place of business conduct regulation by the Federal Reserve and other insured depository institution regulators, such as OCC and OTS, state insurance regulators, as well as most aspects of business conduct regulation by SEC and CFTC, and some aspects of the Federal Trade Commission’s role. CBRA would monitor business conduct regulation across all types of financial firms, including depository institutions (banks and thrifts), insurance companies, investment companies, futures companies, and mortgage originators.

#4: Set up a Federal Insurance Guarantor: Paulson proposes that FDIC should be reconstituted as the Federal Insurance Guarantee Corporation (FIGC) to administer deposit insurance and a federally established guarantee structure, the Federal Insurance Guarantee Fund (FIGF). Like today’s FDIC, FIGC would have authority to set risk-based premiums, act as a receiver for failed depository institutions and insurers, while also maintaining some back-up examination authority over those institutions. FIGC would function primarily as an insurer, and not possess any additional direct regulatory authority

#5: Set up a federal Corporate Finance Regulator that should have responsibility for corporate finance oversight in public securities markets. These responsibilities would include the SEC’s current responsibilities over corporate disclosures, corporate governance, accounting oversight, and other similar issues.

If you want to know more details about the “Blueprint” W spoke about, go here:

/www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/regulatory-blueprint/

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 6:16 AM

This is a GREAT explanation:

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (a former investment banker, no less, not a trader) may pull off the mother of all trades, which could net a trillion dollars and maybe as much as $2.2 trillion — yes, with a “t” — for the United States Treasury.

Here’s what’s happened so far. New technology like electronic trading meant that Wall Street’s bread-and-butter business of investment banking and trading stocks stopped making much money years ago. So investment banks took their enormous capital and at first packaged yield-enhanced, subprime mortgage loans into complex derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Eventually and stupidly, these institutions owned them for themselves — lots of them, often at 30-to-1 leverage. The financial products were made “safe” by insurance products known as credit default swaps, a credit derivative from companies such as AIG. When housing turned down, the mortgages and derivatives were worth a lot less and no one would lend Wall Street money anymore.

Then the piling on started. Hedge funds could short financial stocks and then bid down the prices of CDOs stuck on Wall Street’s balance sheets. This was pretty easy to do in an illiquid market. Because of the Federal Accounting Standards Board’s mark-to-market 157 rule, Wall Street had to write off the lower value of these securities and raise more capital, diluting shareholders. So the stock prices would drop, which is what the shorts wanted in the first place. It was all legit.

There is a saying on Wall Street that goes, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Long Term Capital Management learned this lesson 10 years ago when it got its portfolio picked off by Wall Street as its short-term financing dried up. I had thought the opposite — hedge funds picking off Wall Street — would happen today. But in a weird twist, it’s the government that is set up to win the prize.

Here’s how: As short-term financing dried up, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s deteriorating financials threatened to trigger some $1.4 trillion in credit default swap payments that no one, including giant insurer AIG, had the capital to make good on. So Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson put Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship. This removed any short-term financing hassle. He also put up $85 billion in loan guarantees to AIG in exchange for 80% of the company.

Taxpayers will get their money back on AIG. My models suggest that Fannie and Freddie, on the other hand, are a gold mine. For $2 billion in cash up front and some $200 billion in loan guarantees so far, the U.S. government now controls $5.4 trillion in mortgages and mortgage guarantees.

Fannie and Freddie each own around $800 million in mortgage loans, some of them already at discounted values. They also guarantee the credit-worthiness of another $2.2 trillion and $1.6 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. Held to maturity, they may be worth a lot more than Mr. Paulson paid for them. They’re called distressed securities for a reason.

Now Mr. Paulson is pitching Congress for $700 billion or more to buy distressed loans and CDOs from the rest of Wall Street, injecting needed cash onto balance sheets so that normal loans for economic activity can be restored. The trick is what price he will pay. Better mortgages and CDOs are selling for 70 cents on the dollar. But many are seriously distressed (15-25 cents on the dollar) because they are the last to be paid in foreclosures. These are what Wall Street wants to unload the quickest.

Firms will haggle, but eventually cave — they need the cash. I am figuring Mr. Paulson could wind up buying more than $2 trillion in notional value loans and home equity and CDOs for his $700 billion.

So the U.S. will be stuck with a portfolio in the trillions of dollars in bad loans and last-to-be-paid derivatives. Where is the trade in that?

Well, unlike Mr. Buffett or any hedge fund, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve get to cheat. It’s not without risk, but the Feds, with lots of levers, can and will pump capital into the U.S. economy to get it moving again. Future heads of Treasury and the Federal Reserve will be growth advocates — in effect, “talking their book.” While normally this creates a threat of inflation and a run on the dollar, and we may see dollar exchange rates turn south near term, don’t expect it to last.

First, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley now operating as low-leverage bank holding companies, a dollar injected into the economy will most likely turn into $10 in capital (instead of $30 when they were investment banks). This is a huge change. Plus, a stronger U.S. economy, with its financial players having clean balance sheets, will become a safe haven for capital.

Europe is threatened by an angry Russian bear. The Far East, especially China, has its own post-Olympic banking house of cards of non-performing loans to deal with. Interest rates will tick up as the economy expands — a plus for the dollar. Finally, a stronger economy driven by industry instead of financials means more jobs, less foreclosures and higher held-to-maturity payouts on this Fed loan portfolio.

You can slice the numbers a lot of different ways. My calculations, which assume 50% impairment on subprime loans, suggest it is possible, all in, for this portfolio to generate between $1 trillion and $2.2 trillion — the greatest trade ever. Every hedge-fund manager will be jealous. Mr. Buffett is buying a small piece of the trade via his Goldman Sachs investment.

Over 10 years this could change the budget scenario in D.C., which can also strengthen the dollar. The next president gets a heck of a windfall. In the spirit of Secretary of State William Seward’s purchase of Alaska for $7 million in 1867, this week may be remembered as Paulson’s Folly.

Mr. Andy Kessler, a former hedge-fund manager, is the author of “How We Got Here” (Collins, 2005).

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 6:21 AM

“They’re not even close to having enough votes,” said Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), a freshman facing a tough reelection. “This has to be bipartisan.”

Democrat congressman facing tough reelection? I wonder what he thinks of Nancy Pelosi’s “leadership”.

Buy Danish on September 25, 2008 at 6:57 AM

pc on September 25, 2008 at 5:52 AM

Lockstep everyone

Jamson64 on September 25, 2008 at 7:06 AM

Those of us who don’t agree with the bail out just don’t understand, and those of us who don’t vote for Obama are racist.

Got it!

Our country is already in debt, so a little lot more won’t matter?

Those guys who work on Wall Street have plenty of money in their individual accounts. If there was a chance of turning a profit, they’d be financing this themselves.

Why not push for adding some Social Security money to the market? That should make some conservatives happy.

angelat0763 on September 25, 2008 at 7:13 AM

I spent the last two days watching the testimony of Paulson and Bernanke on Capitol Hill. I’m convinced that the plan is both well-conceived and necessary. These guys are more intelligent than all of our so-called representatives combined, many of whom saw these hearings as nothing more than an opportunity for political posturing and self-serving tirades. Paulson and Bernanke are to be commended for their patience and professional demeanor in enduring this nonsense.

I believe this plan will constitute a major step in restoring confidence to the financial markets. At times like this it is difficult for investors to remember that the financial markets are an anticipatory mechanism. Major reversals in the stock market tend to precede the economy by about 6-9 months. This plan will remove many of the clouds from the economic horizon and allow the markets to see beyond the current crisis.

RedWinged Blackbird on September 25, 2008 at 7:27 AM

Two days watching the TV and you’re on board? Well, good for you! They love guys like you. I worked for a Wall Street firm for 10 years, and I’ve spent the last 5 years complaining that this was going to happen. Bush is a masterful fear monger and he’s playing America the suckers like a fiddle.

If it’s such a great plan, why isn’t there an opt-out clause? Why not let the real conservatives avoid contributing?

Did you people really think that fascism would come into power by an election? Because that’s exactly what this is.

Adding new debt is no way to restore confidence, much less stability, to any financial market that is struggling because the people can’t pay their debt.

That’s circular logic, and I for one am glad that I had parents that taught me not to trust people like Paluson and Bernacke.

This is the same type of action that turned the 1920’s market correction into a 10 year depression.

Didn’t Grandma teach you not to throw good money after bad? Because exactly that’s what this is.

angelat0763 on September 25, 2008 at 7:40 AM

I believe this plan will constitute a major step in restoring confidence to the financial markets.

RWB – Let’s hope so. My family’s “bread and butter” depends on it. Literally.

pullingmyhairout on September 25, 2008 at 7:41 AM

I am suspicious of this whole mess. God only knows what we are not being told. How convenient is it that once McCain takes a lead in the polls, suddenly the financial sky is falling.
If this deal is going to make the government a lot of money down the road, then why are there not a swarm of investors running to it?
We do not have to go through another great depression. I like what Newt has said,, make available cheap government loans here and cut the capital gains tax to zero.
It seems the only safe plan the government can think of is more government.
No, can’t do anything that would actually allow the free market to step in,,, no,, gotta make it so that it was congress that saved our economy! Could not the government slash $700. billion dollars out of it’s budget tomorrow if they wanted to? They can sure get together fast enough to come up with a new spending plan of $700. billion, but no way can they cut that much that fast!

JellyToast on September 25, 2008 at 7:43 AM

Shirotayama: I’ve been following the back and forth of the commenters on this thread, many of whome are knowledgeable about the market and the credit/monetary system. Yours by far is the most objective and long-range view of common sense presented.

Obviously, a message had to be presented to the American people by President Bush to balance the seriousness of the situation with a reassurance in order to prevent people from putting another run on the money market and the banks.

What concerns me is that too many in Congress are clueless about economic matters—unless they can find a way to line their own pockets or push a personal power grab politically.

Thanks for posting the details of the Blueprint and the followup comments.

On another topic introduced here: Altmeyer (D) should be running for his political life. He is a shallow tool of his party. Through the Dem machinations, he defeated Melissa Hart, a much more competent conservative, who is now challenging him to regain her seat.

And on still another related topic: If IIRC, Bank of America was touting its extension of credit/credit cards to undocumented aliens aka illegals in order to provide them identification and market viability. It makes me angry to realize that BoA’s greed and complicity in crashing credit has had no negative consequence for them.

Surely part of the salvaging of this monetary mess should be the rescinding of the Community Reinvestment Act and its entension. Uncreditworthy clients should not be offered the reward of credit when they prove themselves unworthy of risk. The American taxpaying public is madder than hell over subsidizing Democrat schemes of imposing “social justice” through wealth redistribution/confiscation.

Dodd, Frank, Johnson, Raines, Gorelick, etal should be investigated and prosecuted within an inch of their lives and forced to reimburse what they have gained through duplicity.

onlineanalyst on September 25, 2008 at 8:43 AM

onlineanalyst: You say

“What concerns me is that too many in Congress are clueless about economic matters—unless they can find a way to line their own pockets or push a personal power grab politically. Thanks for posting the details of the Blueprint and the followup comments.”

It’s because I’m actually WORKING this issue directly at work…I had to read the Blueprint (and a bunch of other stuff Treasury has released via it’s press releases) and actually have contacts over there I’m in fairly regular communication with. I “hear stuff”.

I want to say something to all the people who think this is Paulson trying to get control of billions: What I’m hearing is that Paulson really wants to leave the Secretary of Treasury role when the new administration takes office. He doesn’t WANT to stay and “get these billions”. The guy’ a multimillionaire if not billionaire already from his years as Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs. However, there are political forces from both parties, given what I hear, who are asking him to stay on to help see this crisis through. No word on what his answer has been so far. Suffice it to say, having to deal with this was NOT in his original personal plans, the way I hear it.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 8:54 AM

Intrade currently has the odds at 90.2%

RedWinged Blackbird on September 25, 2008 at 8:59 AM

Here’s some more on Paulson’s “Blueprint” I’ve seen written as a synopsis of why Paulson thinks it’s important. These are not Paulson’s words, instead these are a “boiling down” from the Blueprint that a colleague of mine wrote:

“Much of the existing U.S. framework for regulation of the financial industry has been in place for approximately 70 years. Significant financial industry and capital market evolutionary changes over these years led Treasury to conclude that modernization of financial industry regulation has become necessary. Examples of these market changes include:

•Convergence – Changes in financial products and financial service providers have outdated existing U.S. financial regulatory structures based on financial institution and financial product segments. A financial institution, such as a bank or an investment firm, can also offer insurance, securities, and futures in addition to traditional banking products. One packaged financial product can contain components such as banking, insurance, securities, and futures within it.
•Globalization – Capital markets in the U.S. and elsewhere now operate in an extremely tightly interconnected way on a global basis. Overseas capital markets in maturing market-based economies now provide a deep and liquid source of capital outside the United States, forcing U.S. capital markets to compete harder for investment.
•Interconnectivity (Degree of being Interconnected)-Events related to one financial institution can trigger broad capital dislocations or a series of defaults affecting the entire U.S. financial system, adversely affecting the real economy
•Technology – Information technology has enabled globalized capital markets to operate on a 24/7 basis. Improvements in information flow have made for highly information-efficient capital markets that enable innovation developing more sophisticated financial products (like Mortgage Backed Securities) and trading strategies – - products and strategies which can also be so complex, that it may be difficult to truly assess their risk despite the markets’ improved information efficiency.

Overseas capital markets benefit from regulatory structures that are newer, and thus more adaptive to increasing innovation in product complexity, sector convergence. This has exposed gaps and redundancies in the existing system of U.S. financial regulation, such as:

•No single regulator has all information and authority needed to monitor systemic risk
•Inability by any one regulator to take coordinated action across the entire financial system makes solving problems related to overall financial market stability much more difficult
•Redundant regulation adds unnecessary regulatory burden (e.g., increased overhead costs to institutions due to redundant compliance requirements). This obstructs the ability of firms to remain nimble, harming the competitiveness of U.S. capital markets and companies participating in those markets – - potentially driving away capital investment to other markets

In response to these developments, in March 2008 the U.S. Department of The Treasury published the results of a year-long research study on how the U.S. financial regulation framework should be modernized.

The study covers regulation of all types of financial institutions: Commercial banks and other insured depository institutions, insurance companies, securities firms, futures firms, finance companies, and other types of financial intermediaries including those involved in mortgage origination and lending.

The Blueprint proposes sweeping changes in U.S. regulation of the above financial industries, and is designed to improve capital market oversight, improve regulatory efficiency and adaptability, reduce regulatory overlap and redundancy, break down traditional regulatory silos that obstruct communication and coordination, strengthen consumer and investor protections, and ensure that financial institutions have the ability to keep pace with evolving markets to stay competitive.

One final point about MORTGAGES versus MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (MBS) for commenting public here:

-MBS values are based on the underlying ASSETS – the unsold homes and defaulted/foreclosed homes whose mortgages are all packaged and rolled into ONE in a securitized asset – - kind of like a share of a mutual fund, only based on mortgages and their underlying home values. This is why when the real estate market collapsed, and home prices plummeted, the MBS went BAD. This was the faulty assumption about home prices always going up that W mentioned last night.

-A MORTGAGE is only partially based on the home’s value. Once the mortgage is written and you’ve taken out your home loan, the mortgage is MORE based on your ABILITY TO PAY – - your income, your personal assets, the stability of your credit history. It’s more based on the stability of your income than your home’s value.

This is why MBS were so dangerous.

Gotta run to a meeting and then offline. I hope I educated some folks this morning and last night.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 9:07 AM

Weight of Glory: did my eyes deceive me or are you a newly minted “hatchling”?

RushBaby on September 24, 2008 at 9:59 PM

Oh man, that hurts RB. I’ve been here at HA for, I think, a little over a year, and I’ve responded to several of your comments. Story of my life though, no one ever remembers me (plays violin).

Weight of Glory on September 25, 2008 at 9:33 AM

Surely part of the salvaging of this monetary mess should be the rescinding of the Community Reinvestment Act and its entension. Uncreditworthy clients should not be offered the reward of credit when they prove themselves unworthy of risk. The American taxpaying public is madder than hell over subsidizing Democrat schemes of imposing “social justice” through wealth redistribution/confiscation.

I didn’t see that in Shirotayama analysis, did you? and without that, which is the source of the current problem, will all these new regulations work? or is it more of the same old same old…just kicking the can down the road for someone else to deal with, just like social security and medicare?

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 9:38 AM

To me, here’s the problem in a nutshell:

1. When has the US Government ever managed anything and done anything but run up the costs?

2. Why does anyone believe that while Congress is busy trying to put this deal together, the financial institutions aren’t working overtime to restructure their “bundles” so they sell off the really bad stuff to the US Government?

This is the way that all things government work. The contractors always find ways to load costs, there’s always cheating and only the most flagrant ever get caught. Look at everything the US Government runs!

As a strong Republican, even I mistrusted Bush last night. I heard him use some unusual phrasing regarding taxpayers’ dollars not being used to pay fatcat salaries, but I didn’t hear him say those fatcats weren’t going to get those salaries or bonuses. The exact words he used caused me to believe that the institutions will simply either use stock options or some other method (other than the cash the Feds provide) to continue business as usual.

I also didn’t hear a word about the CEOs who walked away with huge sums of money as being responsible in any way. I heard something really vague about irresponsible people – just like Wall Street telling us that we are all to blame. Well news flash to Wall Street: I am not to blame. I’ve not purchased beyond my means. I pay my credit card, car loan and mortgage debt, I didn’t bet on flex rate loans but instead paid more for a conventional loan. I believe there area a lot of responsible Americans that didn’t cause this crisis and I think we are the ones that are going to pay now for the irresponsible behavior of others.

katablog.com on September 25, 2008 at 9:41 AM

We’d be in rags because the collapse of the credit markets and the collapse of money markets would SHUT DOWN ALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 5:43 AM

I’ve heard this so many times, unless we ‘fix’ global warming, we’re all doomed unless we ban alar, we’re all doomed unless we ban DDT, we’re all doomed

you know it was the action of the Fed that gave us the great depression, and it was the action of the government (community redevlopment act, SOX) that got us into this problem, unless the ‘fix’ includes getting rid of those 2 laws, its useless. we could also try less regulation, drop the capital gains tax, and elminate business taxes….no way I know…but instead of more government, maybe less would work…for once…

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 9:44 AM

Oh man, that hurts RB. I’ve been here at HA for, I think, a little over a year, and I’ve responded to several of your comments. Story of my life though, no one ever remembers me (plays violin).

Weight of Glory on September 25, 2008 at 9:33 AM

Oh! Sorry! Hatchling=new registrant at LGF. I know you’re a veteran at HA!

RushBaby on September 25, 2008 at 9:51 AM

US, Europe, Middle East, Asia. Pull out the bottom of a house of cards, and what happens? It all tumbles down.

That’s the cliff we’re on the precipice of

if we’re a house of cards, then we’re going to fall sooner or later…..

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 9:56 AM

didn’t see that in Shirotayama analysis, did you? and without that, which is the source of the current problem, will all these new regulations work? or is it more of the same old same old…just kicking the can down the road for someone else to deal with, just like social security and medicare?

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 9:38 AM

Back from my meeting. I didn’t cover it because I’m not dealing with it at work, haven’t read about it, and thus am not qualified to add it to my argument.

Somebody please enlighten me as I Google that Act to laern more about it. Lucy can you ’splain it to me?

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:26 AM

Oh! Sorry! Hatchling=new registrant at LGF. I know you’re a veteran at HA!

RushBaby on September 25, 2008 at 9:51 AM

heh. Whew!

Weight of Glory on September 25, 2008 at 10:27 AM

if we’re a house of cards, then we’re going to fall sooner or later…..

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 9:56 AM

THAT is NOT pre-destined right4life. Our decisions today can rescue our retirements and our children’s futures.

And IMHO your statement is NOT a sound argument why we should let the economy totally collapse around us now, anyway.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:27 AM

we could also try less regulation, drop the capital gains tax, and elminate business taxes….no way I know…but instead of more government, maybe less would work…for once…

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 9:44 AM

Right4life:

-Drop the capital gains tax: I LOVE that idea
-Eliminate business taxes: I LOVE that idea even more
(Basically if I had my druthers we’d have a Fair, FLAT TAX for EVERYONE at a low, low rate)
-Drop regulation? Then it’d be bedlam. This problem times a million. It was antiquated, silo’ed, poorly coordinated regulation that allowed us into this mess.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:31 AM

BTW, right4life, 2 questions for ya:

1. What on EARTH does Sarbanes-Oxley have to do with this?
I keep seeing people refer to SOX as having something to do with this and am NOT seeing the connection.

2. This crisis and “Global Warming” are aren’t even comparable. Two totally unrelated issues. Not even an apple and an orange. Try an Apple and a huge hunk o’ stinky cheese…not even related to each other.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:34 AM

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:26 AM

its a carter era law that clinton enhanced to give more loans to victims of racism ie poor people that couldn’t repay the loan in the first place…and of course lets not forget clinton’s point man on this

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 10:42 AM

Bush has royally failed this country in so many ways.

The Fannie Freddie mess is POLITICAL CORRECTNESS run amuk.

Time for a real leader, someone who can actually speak to the people and pursuade them to action.

Bush is a nice man. I will give him that.

stenwin77 on September 25, 2008 at 10:43 AM

And IMHO your statement is NOT a sound argument why we should let the economy totally collapse around us now, anyway.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:27 AM

nobody knows for sure what will happen if the government doesn’t ’save’ us. the government didn’t ’save’ us from teh great depression, it made it worse, how do you know the new ’salvation’ won’t be worse than just letting whatever is going to happen, happen?

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 10:47 AM

I believe we all need to chill out here and see how this plays out. President Bush SHOULD have implicated the Democrats’ role in blocking legislation that could have solved this problem back in 2003 or 2005, although he DID mention that Fannie and Freddie are at the root of the problem because people believed they were backed by the Government.

President Bush also said that the Federal Government is the only institution with the “patience” to go over these bundled loans and separate the good ones from the bad ones–this will probably take time, but having legislation that guides the process will be a good first step in re-establishing confidence in the market. Although President Bush said that he supports free enterprise, and that in normal circumstances he would not bail out failing banks, he also said that these are NOT normal circumstances, and that he could not stand by while credit froze up. It is not clear to most non-economists how bad this really is–if this bailout prevents a Great Depression, it would be worth the money.

President Bush also said that the net cost to the taxpayer would be less than $700 billion, because some of the loans could be re-sold into the market, to recuperate some of the money.

As for McCain’s decision to suspend his campaign to work on the bill, it’s a dicey decision, but it could pay off in the end. While this has been going on in Washington, Obama has been out on the campaign trail blaming “Republicans” for this, while it was Democrats (Raines, Gorelick, Johnson) who got rich from Fannie and Freddie, but what has Obama DONE about this?

There was a lot of resistance in Congress about the fact that only the Executive Branch (Paulson) would be completely in charge under Bush’s original proposal. If Federal money is involved, Congress (as a whole, regardless of party) has a right to determine the rules under which it is spent.

McCain threw down the gauntlet to Obama, implying: “We are both Senators. If Congress is negotiating an important law regarding our country’s financial future, it is our duty to show leadership and serve our country. You can stand on your soapbox and call me the third term of George Bush, meanwhile I am going to Washington to fix this mess. You’re a talker, I’m a doer, and I will prove it!”

McCain had already expressed reservations about the bailout plan several days ago, and listed provisions he wanted included in the bill. If he succeeds in getting them passed, and the credit markets are stabilized, he can claim the mantle of a true reformer and leader, while Obama stood around complaining. But what else has Obama ever done?

It’s crunch time for McCain–he will either prove his mettle here, or go down fighting, just like he did in his plane in Vietnam. McCain will have to deal with 99 other Senators (including Obama), the Administration, and the entire House, and might not get exactly what he wants. It might get ugly for a few days, but if McCain can shepherd a good bill through Congress, then explain it to the voters, he could appear as the statesman next to Obama the whiner.

This battle will not be won by the campaign, by TV ads, or by debates, or by sound bites, or by Sarah Palin. This is McCain’s battle to win or lose, on his own. But when it comes to fighting and sheer guts–should we bet on the confused rabble-rouser from Chicago, or the guy who endured five years of torture in Hanoi?

Steve Z on September 25, 2008 at 10:48 AM

Drop regulation? Then it’d be bedlam. This problem times a million. It was antiquated, silo’ed, poorly coordinated regulation that allowed us into this mess.

I thought SOX was supposed to save us from this? we have all this regulation, but of course its NEVER enough…we need more government, more control, more oversight…why? what got us into this mess is government…why do you think they can fix it?

and lets not forget the illegal alien angle that the government encouraged.

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 10:49 AM

Somebody please enlighten me as I Google that Act to laern more about it. Lucy can you ’splain it to me?

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:26 AM

Here you go:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=307061229501695

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 10:50 AM

I wish people would READ what W actually freakin’ SAID.
Pasted in below. He nailed ALL the salient points. I hope folks will actually ABSORB them and not just “gut react”.

One of the points Rush Limbaugh likes to make about us conservatives vs. the liberals is that we THINK and they FEEL. I sure hope he’s right and folks will READ this and THINK about whether W’s lyin’ to us or not.

Think about it: The guy’s only in office for a mere 4 freakin’ months. He could sit on his fanny and not do a danged thing if he wanted to…Nero fiddling as Rome burned.

But he CHOSE not to do that. Because he recognizes the seriousness of the threat (the guy DOES have a Harvard MBA) and doesn’t want his legacy to become the same legacy Herbert Hoover was left with. Which suggests to me Paulson’s and Bernanke’s logic and arguments and presented data have PERSUADED him to care.

Read what the man actually said. I saw too many people last night totally misinterpreting what he was trying to convey. Maybe if you actually READ it instead of going from memory, some puzzle pieces will fall into place.

Geez, having to keep making this argument’s getting old:

9:01 P.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT: Good evening. This is an extraordinary period for America’s economy. Over the past few weeks, many Americans have felt anxiety about their finances and their future. I understand their worry and their frustration. We’ve seen triple-digit swings in the stock market. Major financial institutions have teetered on the edge of collapse, and some have failed. As uncertainty has grown, many banks have restricted lending. Credit markets have frozen. And families and businesses have found it harder to borrow money.

We’re in the midst of a serious financial crisis, and the federal government is responding with decisive action. We’ve boosted confidence in money market mutual funds, and acted to prevent major investors from intentionally driving down stocks for their own personal gain.

Most importantly, my administration is working with Congress to address the root cause behind much of the instability in our markets. Financial assets related to home mortgages have lost value during the housing decline. And the banks holding these assets have restricted credit. As a result, our entire economy is in danger. So I’ve proposed that the federal government reduce the risk posed by these troubled assets, and supply urgently-needed money so banks and other financial institutions can avoid collapse and resume lending.

This rescue effort is not aimed at preserving any individual company or industry — it is aimed at preserving America’s overall economy. It will help American consumers and businesses get credit to meet their daily needs and create jobs. And it will help send a signal to markets around the world that America’s financial system is back on track.

I know many Americans have questions tonight: How did we reach this point in our economy? How will the solution I’ve proposed work? And what does this mean for your financial future? These are good questions, and they deserve clear answers.

First, how did our economy reach this point?

Well, most economists agree that the problems we are witnessing today developed over a long period of time. For more than a decade, a massive amount of money flowed into the United States from investors abroad, because our country is an attractive and secure place to do business. This large influx of money to U.S. banks and financial institutions — along with low interest rates — made it easier for Americans to get credit. These developments allowed more families to borrow money for cars and homes and college tuition — some for the first time. They allowed more entrepreneurs to get loans to start new businesses and create jobs.

Unfortunately, there were also some serious negative consequences, particularly in the housing market. Easy credit — combined with the faulty assumption that home values would continue to rise — led to excesses and bad decisions. Many mortgage lenders approved loans for borrowers without carefully examining their ability to pay. Many borrowers took out loans larger than they could afford, assuming that they could sell or refinance their homes at a higher price later on.

Optimism about housing values also led to a boom in home construction. Eventually the number of new houses exceeded the number of people willing to buy them. And with supply exceeding demand, housing prices fell. And this created a problem: Borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages who had been planning to sell or refinance their homes at a higher price were stuck with homes worth less than expected — along with mortgage payments they could not afford. As a result, many mortgage holders began to default.

These widespread defaults had effects far beyond the housing market. See, in today’s mortgage industry, home loans are often packaged together, and converted into financial products called “mortgage-backed securities.” These securities were sold to investors around the world. Many investors assumed these securities were trustworthy, and asked few questions about their actual value. Two of the leading purchasers of mortgage-backed securities were Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Because these companies were chartered by Congress, many believed they were guaranteed by the federal government. This allowed them to borrow enormous sums of money, fuel the market for questionable investments, and put our financial system at risk.

The decline in the housing market set off a domino effect across our economy. When home values declined, borrowers defaulted on their mortgages, and investors holding mortgage-backed securities began to incur serious losses. Before long, these securities became so unreliable that they were not being bought or sold. Investment banks such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers found themselves saddled with large amounts of assets they could not sell. They ran out of the money needed to meet their immediate obligations. And they faced imminent collapse. Other banks found themselves in severe financial trouble. These banks began holding on to their money, and lending dried up, and the gears of the American financial system began grinding to a halt.

With the situation becoming more precarious by the day, I faced a choice: To step in with dramatic government action, or to stand back and allow the irresponsible actions of some to undermine the financial security of all.

I’m a strong believer in free enterprise. So my natural instinct is to oppose government intervention. I believe companies that make bad decisions should be allowed to go out of business. Under normal circumstances, I would have followed this course. But these are not normal circumstances. The market is not functioning properly. There’s been a widespread loss of confidence. And major sectors of America’s financial system are at risk of shutting down.

The government’s top economic experts warn that without immediate action by Congress, America could slip into a financial panic, and a distressing scenario would unfold:

More banks could fail, including some in your community. The stock market would drop even more, which would reduce the value of your retirement account. The value of your home could plummet. Foreclosures would rise dramatically. And if you own a business or a farm, you would find it harder and more expensive to get credit. More businesses would close their doors, and millions of Americans could lose their jobs. Even if you have good credit history, it would be more difficult for you to get the loans you need to buy a car or send your children to college. And ultimately, our country could experience a long and painful recession.

Fellow citizens: We must not let this happen. I appreciate the work of leaders from both parties in both houses of Congress to address this problem — and to make improvements to the proposal my administration sent to them. There is a spirit of cooperation between Democrats and Republicans, and between Congress and this administration. In that spirit, I’ve invited Senators McCain and Obama to join congressional leaders of both parties at the White House tomorrow to help speed our discussions toward a bipartisan bill.

I know that an economic rescue package will present a tough vote for many members of Congress. It is difficult to pass a bill that commits so much of the taxpayers’ hard-earned money. I also understand the frustration of responsible Americans who pay their mortgages on time, file their tax returns every April 15th, and are reluctant to pay the cost of excesses on Wall Street. But given the situation we are facing, not passing a bill now would cost these Americans much more later.

Many Americans are asking: How would a rescue plan work?

After much discussion, there is now widespread agreement on the principles such a plan would include. It would remove the risk posed by the troubled assets — including mortgage-backed securities — now clogging the financial system. This would free banks to resume the flow of credit to American families and businesses. Any rescue plan should also be designed to ensure that taxpayers are protected. It should welcome the participation of financial institutions large and small. It should make certain that failed executives do not receive a windfall from your tax dollars. It should establish a bipartisan board to oversee the plan’s implementation. And it should be enacted as soon as possible.

In close consultation with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and SEC Chairman Chris Cox, I announced a plan on Friday. First, the plan is big enough to solve a serious problem. Under our proposal, the federal government would put up to $700 billion taxpayer dollars on the line to purchase troubled assets that are clogging the financial system. In the short term, this will free up banks to resume the flow of credit to American families and businesses. And this will help our economy grow.

Second, as markets have lost confidence in mortgage-backed securities, their prices have dropped sharply. Yet the value of many of these assets will likely be higher than their current price, because the vast majority of Americans will ultimately pay off their mortgages. The government is the one institution with the patience and resources to buy these assets at their current low prices and hold them until markets return to normal. And when that happens, money will flow back to the Treasury as these assets are sold. And we expect that much, if not all, of the tax dollars we invest will be paid back.

A final question is: What does this mean for your economic future?

The primary steps — purpose of the steps I have outlined tonight is to safeguard the financial security of American workers and families and small businesses. The federal government also continues to enforce laws and regulations protecting your money. The Treasury Department recently offered government insurance for money market mutual funds. And through the FDIC, every savings account, checking account, and certificate of deposit is insured by the federal government for up to $100,000. The FDIC has been in existence for 75 years, and no one has ever lost a penny on an insured deposit — and this will not change.

Once this crisis is resolved, there will be time to update our financial regulatory structures. Our 21st century global economy remains regulated largely by outdated 20th century laws. Recently, we’ve seen how one company can grow so large that its failure jeopardizes the entire financial system.

Earlier this year, Secretary Paulson proposed a blueprint that would modernize our financial regulations. For example, the Federal Reserve would be authorized to take a closer look at the operations of companies across the financial spectrum and ensure that their practices do not threaten overall financial stability. There are other good ideas, and members of Congress should consider them. As they do, they must ensure that efforts to regulate Wall Street do not end up hampering our economy’s ability to grow.

In the long run, Americans have good reason to be confident in our economic strength. Despite corrections in the marketplace and instances of abuse, democratic capitalism is the best system ever devised. It has unleashed the talents and the productivity, and entrepreneurial spirit of our citizens. It has made this country the best place in the world to invest and do business. And it gives our economy the flexibility and resilience to absorb shocks, adjust, and bounce back.

Our economy is facing a moment of great challenge. But we’ve overcome tough challenges before — and we will overcome this one. I know that Americans sometimes get discouraged by the tone in Washington, and the seemingly endless partisan struggles. Yet history has shown that in times of real trial, elected officials rise to the occasion. And together, we will show the world once again what kind of country America is — a nation that tackles problems head on, where leaders come together to meet great tests, and where people of every background can work hard, develop their talents, and realize their dreams.

Thank you for listening. May God bless you.

END 9:14 P.M. EDT

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:51 AM

its a carter era law that clinton enhanced to give more loans to victims of racism ie poor people that couldn’t repay the loan in the first place…and of course lets not forget clinton’s point man on this

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 10:42 AM

Right4life, if this is the same argument Neil Boortz made on Townhall.com last week, I agree with you (and Boortz) 100%. Nobody who gets a mortgage ought to get it based on whether they’re a minority or not. They oughta get it based on how qualified they are to PAY based on income, assets, credit history, and the historical trend of the applicant’s stability in all 3 areas.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:54 AM

1. What on EARTH does Sarbanes-Oxley have to do with this?
I keep seeing people refer to SOX as having something to do with this and am NOT seeing the connection.

I thought SOX was supposed to save us from this? what good has this regulation done, other than make it difficult to bring IPOs…all that money spent to comply has bought us?????

2. This crisis and “Global Warming” are aren’t even comparable. Two totally unrelated issues. Not even an apple and an orange. Try an Apple and a huge hunk o’ stinky cheese…not even related to each other.

yes they are. whenever the government wants more power, a ‘crisis’ is manufactured…with cries of doomsday unless the beneficent all powerful government saves us….hallelujah…I see the same psychology at work with this ‘crisis’, as with the environmental ‘crisis’

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 10:56 AM

nobody knows for sure what will happen if the government doesn’t ’save’ us. the government didn’t ’save’ us from teh great depression, it made it worse, how do you know the new ’salvation’ won’t be worse than just letting whatever is going to happen, happen?

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 10:47 AM

Right4life, in 1929 the government FAILED to act, and the actions it took were totally opposite of what they were supposed to do.

Bernanke’s an expert on the Depression…it was his focus while he was an academic. If he understands what the gov’t did WRONG in ‘29, and supports Paulson’s plan, then I think he’s probably got a better handle on this than either of us.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:56 AM

of course there is a point to since the government caused this mess, they should pay for it…but will this new act change the underlying laws that brought on this mess? if not, then it just papers over the mess, and potentially makes a larger mess in the future…kind of like raising taxes to ‘fix’ social security…

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 10:58 AM

I thought SOX was supposed to save us from this? we have all this regulation, but of course its NEVER enough…we need more government, more control, more oversight…why? what got us into this mess is government…why do you think they can fix it?

and lets not forget the illegal alien angle that the government encouraged.

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 10:49 AM

Right4life, Sarbanes-Oxley is about ACCOUNTING and INTERNAL CONTROLS over FINANCIAL REPORTING…not about regulation of business behavior.

Again, another Apple and big ‘ol hunk o’ stinky cheese you’re assuming was supposed to save us.

Sarbanes-Oxley is like fetching a monkeywrench when what you need is a power saw. They’re not meant to address the same thing.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 10:58 AM

Right4life, in 1929 the government FAILED to act, and the actions it took were totally opposite of what they were supposed to do.

no the Fed caused the depression by tightening the money supply. Friedman long argued that and bernanke agrees

even when government ‘acted’ with the new deal, it didn’t help. will this new action help? does anyone really know??

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 11:01 AM

1. What on EARTH does Sarbanes-Oxley have to do with this?
I keep seeing people refer to SOX as having something to do with this and am NOT seeing the connection.

SOX and FASB157 require that illiquid assets be marked to market, even where there is no ready market, so that if you own a mortgage backed security based on a tranche that has some defaults, you have to mark down the entire tranche, and the leveraged securities attached to them. This is why a 5% default in actual mortgages results in appx 25% mark down. A bank rating is based on the ratio of outstanding loans to deposits, so they must either raise capital or sell some loans at a fire sale. This drying up of capital is effecting commercial paper and money markets now, which is why the other markets are cramping up.

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 11:01 AM

yes they are. whenever the government wants more power, a ‘crisis’ is manufactured…with cries of doomsday unless the beneficent all powerful government saves us….hallelujah…I see the same psychology at work with this ‘crisis’, as with the environmental ‘crisis’

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 10:56 AM

OH, BULLSH*T!!

“whenever the government wants more power, they “manufacture” a crisis.”

Heheheheh…I’m just too stunned at the lack of careful analysis here. This EXACTLY points out the difference between conservatives supposedly thinking versus liberals just “feeling” and gut-reacting.

I can’t take this anymore…you’re not willing to understand.

I’m done…logging out. Too damned much for me.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 11:01 AM

SOX and FASB157 require that illiquid assets be marked to market, even where there is no ready market, so that if you own a mortgage backed security based on a tranche that has some defaults, you have to mark down the entire tranche, and the leveraged securities attached to them. This is why a 5% default in actual mortgages results in appx 25% mark down. A bank rating is based on the ratio of outstanding loans to deposits, so they must either raise capital or sell some loans at a fire sale. This drying up of capital is effecting commercial paper and money markets now, which is why the other markets are cramping up.

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 11:01 AM

Vashta,

Thanks. That’s helpful to me understanding this…will go around the corner and talk to my financial economist colleague and bounce this off him before I comment further on that.

At least SOMEBODY threw some data at me with a logic and data-based argument. Thank you, Vashta.

Logging off now.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 11:03 AM

Right4life, Sarbanes-Oxley is about ACCOUNTING and INTERNAL CONTROLS over FINANCIAL REPORTING…not about regulation of business behavior.

Why didn’t Sarbanes-Oxley prevent the subprime mortgage crisis? That is the unspoken question asked in a piece titled “Criminalizing Capitalism” written by a Manhattan Institute scholar, Nicole Gelinas. She reminds us that the legislation passed in the wake of the Enron scandal was meant to reform corporate governance and head off punishing meltdowns of investor wealth. It hasn’t.

link

I thought it was in response to enron…to safeguard investors from corporate meltdowns like this…

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 11:03 AM

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 11:01 AM

oh please go F yourself moron.

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 11:04 AM

I thought it was in response to enron…to safeguard investors from corporate meltdowns like this…

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 11:03 AM

It was a response to Enron, just a poorly designed by government response. They were trying to prevent the ladder sales that Enron mastered, and ended up using an hand grenade to kill a fly. Their rule as now applied means that banks must write down loans as if a fire sale were taking place. I heard a good example here the other day – if you have to sell your house in the next 30 minutes, what price will it sell at? This is what SOX and FASB157 are doing to the banks. Once all their capital is dryed up by trying to maintain their ratios to stay in business, where do they come up with capital to loan car dealerships and others seeking loans?

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 11:09 AM

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 11:09 AM

good point. and this is what I am worried about with this new scheme to ’save us’. I’m afraid it will cause more problems than it solves, just like SOX, and the CRA, and all these other regulations for our own good

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 11:16 AM

I’m afraid it will cause more problems than it solves, just like SOX, and the CRA, and all these other regulations for our own good

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 11:16 AM

Yes, I think any acceptable plan must include killing the CRA and at least the mark-to-market rule. If they can reach a plan that buys up subprimes at say .50 on the dollar, and run it like the RTC, without adding other socialist crap, and can get rid of MTM and CRA rules, I can live with it. Not happily, but it would be better than the alternative (kind of like my tepid support for McCain).

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 11:23 AM

…although the scarecrow could just be a metaphor for a “straw man,” the lion for fake courage; I don’t know nearly enough history to work it out. Anybody out there want to take a crack?

smellthecoffee on September 24, 2008 at 11:02 PM

I think the straw man was Agriculture, the tin man Industry, and the cowardly lion was Wall Street.

shuzilla on September 25, 2008 at 11:35 AM

Bring me the recession! I can not afford this socialism or any other ism and neither can my posterity!

http://conservativepolitics.today.com/2008/09/25/i-am-not-rich-i-cannot-afford-this-socialism/

Virginia Shanahan on September 25, 2008 at 11:41 AM

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 11:23 AM

unfortunately we both know that actually fixing what went wrong would be RACIST and will never happen. I think they’ll just paper over the problem, while not fixing what actually is wrong, setting up a larger problem later.

right4life on September 25, 2008 at 11:43 AM

I heard a good example here the other day – if you have to sell your house in the next 30 minutes, what price will it sell at? This is what SOX and FASB157 are doing to the banks. Once all their capital is dryed up by trying to maintain their ratios to stay in business, where do they come up with capital to loan car dealerships and others seeking loans?

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 11:09 AM

The problem with that analogy is that you can actually sell a house today. And, because homes in most areas are dropping in value, if you could get for it what the market would offer in the next 30 minutes you would happily sell, versus waiting a few months to fix it up and another six months to a year selling it, chasing the falling market along the way.

The problem with the financial market is that the toxic debt is not relly MTM. It’s whatever the institutions holding them say’s they’re worth, which is usually the value necessary to keep them solvent. That scares off investors.

As much as has already been lost, mortgages are still going bad. There will continue to be losses once folks exhaust their 401k’s and sell anything they can on ebay. Second mortgages that covered downpayments are lost unless and until the firsts recover everything.

Here’s my analogy: suppose you and some friends want to invest in real estate, and you are looking at buying into an entire subdivision of brand-new homes that the developer needs to unload to remain solvent. However, there is a sink hole problem and homes and infrastructure are falling into them, which is why they’re not selling in the first place. As weeks pass, more homes and more infrastructure are consumed, with no end in sight. As the developer pleads for your investment so he can feed his children, on what do you base your offer, knowing with each passing day your investment is worth less?

My answer is that you don’t buy at all until you know the risks, meaning the extent of the geological problems and thus make a reasonable guess as to the extent of the loss. So, even though there is apparent value, without an ability to assess risk the subdivision is effectively worthless. As are MBS’s until enough transparency for buyers of those securities can assess the risks involved in purchasing them.

Mark-to-market must exist and that should be non-negotiable. It’s up to the financial industry to provide the transparency needed to make MBS marketable, but instead they hide behind opaque debt instruments to cover their nakedness.

shuzilla on September 25, 2008 at 12:27 PM

Mark-to-market must exist and that should be non-negotiable. It’s up to the financial industry to provide the transparency needed to make MBS marketable, but instead they hide behind opaque debt instruments to cover their nakedness.

shuzilla on September 25, 2008 at 12:27 PM

Then watch the entire market crash. Devaluing a portfolio by 30% or more because 4-5% of the underlying properties are in default is foolish. Mark-to-market is, like most government intervention, full of good thoughts and little sense.

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM

Heheheheh…I’m just too stunned at the lack of careful analysis here. This EXACTLY points out the difference between conservatives supposedly thinking versus liberals just “feeling” and gut-reacting.

Shirotayama on September 25, 2008 at 11:01 AM

It’s ironic that you’ve been arguing for the rescue and are so certain of it’s necessity yet weren’t even aware of the actual underlying causes of this problem in the first place.

FloatingRock on September 25, 2008 at 12:45 PM

Right4life, in 1929 the government FAILED to act, and the actions it took were totally opposite of what they were supposed to do.

That makes no sense.

But I think I know what you’re saying. But the thing is, the reason the depression happened is because the Federal Reserve caused it. And that’s a quote from Bernacke: http://www.kickthemallout.com/article.php/Story-Bernake_Fed_Caused_Depression

The government did act in the early 1900’s, and those actions delayed and intensified the problem. So, what should have been a 1 year business correction was “fixed” by the government and turned into a 10 year tragedy 20 years later.

Bernanke’s an expert on the Depression…it was his focus while he was an academic. If he understands what the gov’t did WRONG in ‘29, and supports Paulson’s plan, then I think he’s probably got a better handle on this than either of us.

Sorry, as a devout believer in free markets, I think he’s behaving more like a gambling addict than anything. “Just give me one more hand – I’ll win this time!”

angelat0763 on September 25, 2008 at 12:48 PM

angelat0763 on September 25, 2008 at 12:48 PM

The Fed did cause the great depression. That is absolutely true. How did it happen? Bank failures were already contracting the money supply and the Fed shrunk it even further. When the money supply contracts so severely, you get economic depressions. The failure of the credit markets last week, the evidence for which is legion, has precisely the same effect, i.e. a massive contraction in the money supply. That is what Bernanke and Paulson are moving to prevent. That is why it is not hyperbole to say the price of inaction is another great depression.

phronesis on September 25, 2008 at 12:56 PM

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM

On this we agree 100%. Sarbox and FASB157 were disasters of epic proportions. Mark-to-market played a major role in causing this crisis. It should be changed ASAP. But I think too much damage has been done at this point for that alone to prevent the failure of the credit market.

phronesis on September 25, 2008 at 1:00 PM

On this we agree 100%. Sarbox and FASB157 were disasters of epic proportions. Mark-to-market played a major role in causing this crisis. It should be changed ASAP. But I think too much damage has been done at this point for that alone to prevent the failure of the credit market.

phronesis on September 25, 2008 at 1:00 PM

Agreed. At this point, we need to bring capital back into the market. Getting rid of MTM would only keep the damage from getting worse. I surprized some folks think it is a good idea – we got along without it until around December 2006, and investors were still able to value their investments.

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 1:04 PM

Then watch the entire market crash. Devaluing a portfolio by 30% or more because 4-5% of the underlying properties are in default is foolish. Mark-to-market is, like most government intervention, full of good thoughts and little sense.

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM

OK, then. A crash would not be on the order of 1929 that was based on an over-leveraged bubble. Today’s RE bubble is more like 1929 stock market, being overpriced and overleveraged. The losses remain hidden away, and to the extent they are hidden investors are avoiding the market, even pulling money out for lack of trust.

If the unknown mortgage losses were priced into the stock market you would see significant losses. You would also see money standing on the sidelines, money in gold and commodities, and from overseas, return to the stock market post-adjustment. You would see enthusiastic trading and a rapid recovery based on trust. And you would not see the inflation coming from an extra $700 billion in debt propping up values. So my 401K goes down in value, but my contributions buy more and my buying power is preserved.

Maybe if our markets are the first to “crash” to supportable levels then they will be the refuge for money worldwide when their markets tank or their trading is halted.

shuzilla on September 25, 2008 at 1:27 PM

Devaluing a portfolio by 30% or more because 4-5% of the underlying properties are in default is foolish.

Maybe not. The riskiest, highest yielding tranches are toast. The lowest tranches a) yield significantly less, maybe zero if they can’t keep pace with inflation, and b) no longer qualify for their lofty ratings, if they ever really did.

The money to be made was weighted towards the higher yielding but mostly wiped-out tranch. None of the tranches effectively priced their risk.

shuzilla on September 25, 2008 at 1:35 PM

CNBC reporting that the House has reached a fundamental agreement on a bill. Staff will work out details overnight and possibly a vote as early as tomorrow.

RedWinged Blackbird on September 25, 2008 at 1:38 PM

If the unknown mortgage losses were priced into the stock market you would see significant losses. You would also see money standing on the sidelines, money in gold and commodities, and from overseas, return to the stock market post-adjustment. You would see enthusiastic trading and a rapid recovery based on trust. And you would not see the inflation coming from an extra $700 billion in debt propping up values. So my 401K goes down in value, but my contributions buy more and my buying power is preserved.

shuzilla on September 25, 2008 at 1:27 PM

My argument on MTM (and many analysts agree with this) is that the valuation has been driven down much lower than is accurate, not that the valuation is too high. You would be correct that MTM is a useful tool when historical pricing is too liberal, but once the pendulum swings the other way MTM, especially on leveraged portfolios, overstates the devaluation.

Vashta.Nerada on September 25, 2008 at 1:46 PM

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