McCain within two in new NBC and LAT polls, huge swing among independents

posted at 6:53 pm on September 24, 2008 by Allahpundit

A couple of sunbeams on an otherwise cloudy day. Both polls were taken over the weekend so Maverick should have been melting down along with the public’s confidence in the economy, but instead he’s hanging tight. The Journal speculates it’s because he’s harnessed some sort of populist disgruntlement and become a Howard Beale figure — which is stupid given that that should coincide with “change,” and Obama leads him consistently on the point. Anyway, the key: Indies. They’re making up the ground he’s losing on the economy. Quoth the Times:

McCain has done a better job wooing independent voters than he did last month. Among registered voters who describe themselves as independent, 34% supported Obama and 49% supported McCain.

That is a big swing from August, when Obama led among independents 46% to 35%. That is, in part, because that fluid category of voters this month included a larger portion of white men without college degrees, a group Obama has a hard time wooing…

Palin’s nomination was a plus for McCain among Republicans and independents: 43% of GOP registered voters and 38% of independents say they are more likely to vote for McCain because of Palin. Only 2% of Republicans and 18% of independents said she made them less likely to support McCain.

NBC sees a 13-point lead for McCain among independents, up five from two weeks ago, although its data on Palin is grimmer. E.g.:

The Times’s data splits 41/46 on whether she’s qualified to be president. But note:

More good news: Four in 10 voters tell NBC the debates will be extremely or “quite” important to their vote, so there’s still plenty of room for movement — assuming that the debates go on, that is. Which, according to this flash poll from Survey USA after McCain’s call for postponement, they definitely should.

Exit question: If the national polls are this close — Gallup also has it within three points and Rasmussen within two — what’s going on with the bloodletting in Time’s new battleground poll? Obama by nine in Pennsylvania? Really?


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OMG…the Obamatards on pollster.com are going to explode. They were SURE this poll would be +10. Mwahahahahahaha.

SouthernGent on September 24, 2008 at 6:55 PM

Forget the polls, even if the polls are good news. As they say, “This too shall pass.” We need to fulfill our present duties and leave the outcome to God. Polls do nothing but distract us from these duties.

MedSchoolCatholic on September 24, 2008 at 6:57 PM

Woo Hoo!

mindhacker on September 24, 2008 at 6:58 PM

This is great news for team McCain!! Look for Pa to turn Red after seeing the coal ad online a few times.

tee866 on September 24, 2008 at 6:58 PM

Indies are where it’s at in Nov.

Spirit of 1776 on September 24, 2008 at 6:58 PM

These Polls are making my head blow up…I’m just going to avoid them as best I can…(which I can’t seem to do heh…)

Dritanian on September 24, 2008 at 7:00 PM

These polls suk..can there be that many idiots voting for BHO. By the way here in Florida at Obamas rally, there were multiple faintings again. EMR trucks were busy..seriously.

malkinmania on September 24, 2008 at 7:02 PM

These Polls are making my head blow up…I’m just going to avoid them as best I can…(which I can’t seem to do heh…)

Dritanian on September 24, 2008 at 7:00 PM

A wise choice. These things are all over the map, it’s so hard to believe them whether they bring good news or bad, so it’s best to focus on the one that matters most.

Remember, pollsters said Reagan-Carter was too close to call right before the election.

thirteen28 on September 24, 2008 at 7:03 PM

If an indie has not been brainwashed into accepting the Messiah by now, he probably is immune.

Labamigo on September 24, 2008 at 7:03 PM

If Obamas up by 9 in PA, I’ll eat a baked cat.

Chuck Schick on September 24, 2008 at 7:03 PM

Now, I’m not saying I’d prefer it this way at all, but wouldn’t Romney have at least helped McCain win Colorado and Michigan?

Realistically, what state is Palin going to help McCain pick up?

nickj116 on September 24, 2008 at 7:04 PM

If Obamas up by 9 in PA, I’ll eat a baked cat.

Lol, he’s not up by nine, so save the kitty.

nickj116 on September 24, 2008 at 7:04 PM

Now, I’m not saying I’d prefer it this way at all, but wouldn’t Romney have at least helped McCain win Colorado and Michigan?

Realistically, what state is Palin going to help McCain pick up?

The silver lining if we lose in 2008 is the Palin/Jindal ticket in 2012.

MedSchoolCatholic on September 24, 2008 at 7:06 PM

StrategicVision (Republican pollster) has PA +1 Obama.

SouthernGent on September 24, 2008 at 7:08 PM

Palin helps in the West. She needs to do a charm offensive. She’s a beauty queen for goodness sake. Get out there and say you’re for world peace!

Mojave Mark on September 24, 2008 at 7:09 PM

That ABC/Post poll can be thrown away.

Along with their big story saying that the election has swung solidly towards Obama’s favor.

I think if McCain can look like a crusading reformer when he returns to the Senate and is able to work out a “good” bailout plan (yeah, some populist red meat throw in) that calms the markets, this may be a win for him.

At least until the next crisis emerges.

Y’know, you have to think our enemies are looking at us seemingly paralyzed with some thoughts on their minds.

SteveMG on September 24, 2008 at 7:11 PM

If an indie has not been brainwashed into accepting the Messiah by now, he probably is immune.

Labamigo on September 24, 2008 at 7:03 PM

Exactly! With so many undecideds right now, it will probably come down to emotion. This is where pointing out all of Husseins many negatives could turn the tide.

Harpoon on September 24, 2008 at 7:12 PM

The silver lining if we lose in 2008 is the Palin/Jindal ticket in 2012.

Forgive me if I’m being rude here, but I’m really tired of hearing this line of logic. There is no silver lining if we lose, because Obama is going to shift the Supreme Court so far to the left, it’ll make our heads spin.

nickj116 on September 24, 2008 at 7:12 PM

Why is Palin suspending campaigning/fundraising? Is she intimately involved in policy for socializing Wall Street?

Valiant on September 24, 2008 at 7:13 PM

I’m losing my mind. Way too many polls, and they all contradict each other.

Screw this, where’s my plate of G– D— America and the chickens… coming home… to roooost

El_Terrible on September 24, 2008 at 7:14 PM

Battleground has consistently shown McCain up,,,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

JellyToast on September 24, 2008 at 7:14 PM

Palin helps in the West.

I live in the west. Where exactly is she helping? She helped a little bit in WA, and OR tightened, but we all know Obama’s got those two in the bag. She’s certainly not helping in NM or Nevada, so again I ask, where is she helping?

nickj116 on September 24, 2008 at 7:14 PM

nickj116 on September 24, 2008 at 7:12 PM

What conservatives are retiring in the next 4 years? There are a bunch of old libs on life support who will be replaced by fellow leftists by Obama.

Valiant on September 24, 2008 at 7:14 PM

Ummmmmmmmm……………… I thought we agreed not to mention the polls anymore, or did HotAir take a poll, and the polls showed that the majority like day to day, hour by hour, minute by minute, polls? I may be wrong.

……………… maybe we should take a poll?

Seven Percent Solution on September 24, 2008 at 7:16 PM

McCain REALLY f’ed up with Palin… he should have kept her hidden until the convention to let the press self-destruct. After that, he should have had her out there every day, building confidence and sounding in charge.

What the hell is with them keeping her away from the press? I like her, and even *I* am starting to buy the narrative… even though I know its just a manufactured narrative.

DaveS on September 24, 2008 at 7:16 PM

That cant be true.
I’ve been watching and reading all day long that obama had 125% of the voters on his side.
Thats the same number as dollars allowed for your house over its value ( if your broke, an illegal, out of work or in any way a minority, and that IS the law) if you wish to mortgage it.
Same number as senators get paid comensurate to production compared to ability (i’m gracious ), it’s half of the same number as michelle bitter half obama raised her salary when obama gave a million bucks to the hospital.
.
Obama is up 125 % in 125% of the polls made by 125% of the callers to 1% of the public.

shooter on September 24, 2008 at 7:18 PM

Just thinking here, Rush has been saying for some time that THE ONE MARXIST MANCHILD PEEING IN HIS PANTS COMMUNITY ORGANIZER would have to be up by 10-15 points in order to win. I think he qualified that by saying the time frame for this would have to be somewhere around the last two weeks of the election. So, with that in mind what I am thinking is that some of the more Leftist leaning polls might take this and run with it and inflate the polls to what Rush said and in addition, to deflate most of us. I question anything that is more than 3-4 points. It just does not make sense and now that all the excrement has hit the fan over the bailout bill and debates, well let us just say next weeks polling data is going to be VERY interesting.

freeus on September 24, 2008 at 7:18 PM

I live in the west. Where exactly is she helping? She helped a little bit in WA, and OR tightened, but we all know Obama’s got those two in the bag. She’s certainly not helping in NM or Nevada, so again I ask, where is she helping?

nickj116 on September 24, 2008 at 7:14 PM

The question isnt where is she helping, its where she hasnt made things worse if Romney had been on the ticket,

malkinmania on September 24, 2008 at 7:18 PM

Another good reason for Barack to stay in Mississippi, its the only chance he’ll ever get to win a debate with or without a teleprompter.

Speakup on September 24, 2008 at 7:19 PM

Realistically, what state is Palin going to help McCain pick up?

nickj116 on September 24, 2008 at 7:04 PM

I think she has helped a lot with Colorado. I live down in a little Peoples Republic-level blue dot called Manitou Springs, which is in a sea of deep red (El Paso County – Colorado Springs). The obamatons here despise her (with a level of hatred I can say with certainty is borne of fear, not rational dislike), and the repubs adore her – both appearances were sold out, one here in the Springs, the other up in Jefferson County (also a deep red) just west of Denver.

I’m not too worried about the polls; I think CO goes red again this year.

Pavel on September 24, 2008 at 7:19 PM

‘The silver lining if we lose in 2008 is the Palin/Jindal ticket in 2012.
Forgive me if I’m being rude here, but I’m really tired of hearing this line of logic. There is no silver lining if we lose, because Obama is going to shift the Supreme Court so far to the left, it’ll make our heads spin.”

God, with the level of one-sided media coverage, the constant hate jabs from the hollywood elite and the overall spirit of the Democratic Party of expressing a desire to completely destroy us as a party, I’m be happy if being a Republican wasn’t declared illegal by then.

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:20 PM

The silver lining if we lose in 2008 is the Palin/Jindal ticket in 2012. – MedSchoolCatholic on September 24, 2008 at 7:06 PM

If we lose there will be no silver lining. Civil war, perhaps, but no silver lining.

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 7:20 PM

“I’d” be

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:21 PM

If there is this great a differential with independents, the only way the numbers could be this close is if dems are seriously oversampled.

eaglewingz08 on September 24, 2008 at 7:21 PM

What conservatives are retiring in the next 4 years? There are a bunch of old libs on life support who will be replaced by fellow leftists by Obama.

Stevens will surely be replaced, but don’t forget that both Scalia and Kennedy are 72. Kennedy’s mostly liberal, but he sometimes votes with the Conservatives.

nickj116 on September 24, 2008 at 7:22 PM

If we lose there will be no silver lining. Civil war, perhaps, but no silver lining.

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 7:20 PM

Greeaaat… here we go with the Red Dawn, Terminator, Mad Max fantasies…

Bradky on September 24, 2008 at 7:22 PM

Screw this, where’s my plate of G– D— America and the chickens… coming home… to roooost

El_Terrible on September 24, 2008 at 7:14 PM

Check with Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) who today actually took those very words out of Rev. Wright’s foaming mouth and threw them at Ben Bernanke.

Terrie on September 24, 2008 at 7:23 PM

Time for a cocktail.

Two in fact.

One for each hand. So much for surfing and typing.

SteveMG on September 24, 2008 at 7:25 PM

Bradky on September 24, 2008 at 7:22 PM

Nah. Just a hunch based on the current chasm between red and blue states. Don’t forget: WE have the military.

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 7:26 PM

Man o man the polls are all over the place FOXNEWS has Obama up by 5

KBird on September 24, 2008 at 7:26 PM

There is a poll for everything. I am SICK of all these polls.

jencab on September 24, 2008 at 7:28 PM

Nah. Just a hunch based on the current chasm between red and blue states. Don’t forget: WE have the military.

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 7:26 PM

And thankfully our military consists of hundreds of thousands of professional men and women who would not rise up for some kind of civil war no matter what state they are based in.

Bradky on September 24, 2008 at 7:28 PM

If we lose there will be no silver lining. Civil war, perhaps, but no silver lining.

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 7:20 PM

Manly, I’m not sure about the civil war, but something is going to have to give. Almost everyone I know has agreed that the media is prime for some backlash. I am ready to boycott the msm and hollywood and the companies that advertise for them. I mean serious boycott. If I wouldn’t send even a single dollar to the “one” why should I give it to the entertainment industry who hands it over to him hand over fist?

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:29 PM

McCain would be the first Independent president, sort of like Bill Clinton was the first black president. The more he #$%^es off the Republican base, the more we love him.

RightOFLeft on September 24, 2008 at 7:29 PM

And thankfully our military consists of hundreds of thousands of professional men and women who would not rise up for some kind of civil war no matter what state they are based in.- Bradky on September 24, 2008 at 7:28 PM

Not exactly a student of either history or human nature, are you Brad?

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 7:30 PM

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:29 PM

Hang tight, Hawk. Assuming Brad doesn’t punk out, this is going to be very entertaining and enlightening.

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 7:31 PM

There is a poll for everything. I am SICK of all these polls.

jencab on September 24, 2008 at 7:28 PM

Q1. Are you sick of polls?
Q2. Are you White? black? other?
Q3. Are you Catholic? Jewish? Protestant?
Q4. Are you left-handed with a slight limp?

;-)

SouthernGent on September 24, 2008 at 7:32 PM

“Nah. Just a hunch based on the current chasm between red and blue states. Don’t forget: WE have the military.”

Don’t think that a big cross sections off the military doesn’t realize we’ve been sold down the river by liberals and the democratic party. They wouldn’t revolt, but a good deal of the people I serve with have said they won’t serve under Obama. I’m lucky I can retire.

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:33 PM

“Nah. Just a hunch based on the current chasm between red and blue states. Don’t forget: WE have the military.”

Brad who Manly?

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:35 PM

I think when weighting the polls, they look at registrations, and right now, liberal groups are running around registring a lotta Democrats who won’t go to the polls in Nov.

Sekhmet on September 24, 2008 at 7:35 PM

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:33 PM

Unlike Brad, you know your history, Hawk. When the Confederacy seceded, Robert E. Lee and a goodly number of other officers resigned their commissions and returned home.

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 7:35 PM

I like this music in the link below playing in the background.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/24/new-mccain-ad-the-coal-miner/

Mr. Joe on September 24, 2008 at 7:35 PM

Hang tight, Hawk. Assuming Brad doesn’t punk out, this is going to be very entertaining and enlightening

Oops, Brad who?

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:35 PM

Brad who Manly? – hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:35 PM

Bradky….who appears to be in hiding now.

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 7:36 PM

There is a poll for everything. I am SICK of all these polls.

jencab on September 24, 2008 at 7:28 PM

I just saw a poll that says you’re not.

Chuck Schick on September 24, 2008 at 7:37 PM

Where is Palin helping?

Ironically, in the State furthest away from her home state of Alaska: Florida.

60,000 to hear her speak in North Florida? Unprecedented! That one event at The Villages, probably locked up Florida for McCain/Palin.

She’s also helped greatly in Oregon and Washington, and although McCain/Palin may not win those states, there are some Congressional and on Senatorial candidate running that could sure use the help.

I’d also say Michigan. People in MI relate to Palin, her outdoorsmen background. Minnesota too. Probably the reason Obama pulled out of North Dakota was due to Palin.

She’s the best VP pick of all-time!

ericdondero on September 24, 2008 at 7:37 PM

I don’t believe any polls coming out until the final days leading up to the election. The MSM is so in the tank for Obama, they will/are doing everything in their power to shape the news. Conservatives have a history of staying home on election day for various reasons. The MSM is trying desperately to ruin the momentum McCain/Palin have coming off their convention.

Screw polls, they are meaningless at this point of the campaign.

Screw Liberals, they are meaningless at any time!

Keemo on September 24, 2008 at 7:39 PM

Where is Palin helping?

Ironically, in the State furthest away from her home state of Alaska: Florida.

Looking at the polls, she hasn’t helped much, if at all.

She’s also helped greatly in Oregon and Washington, and although McCain/Palin may not win those states, there are some Congressional and on Senatorial candidate running that could sure use the help.

I live in WA, and it’s going to go to Obama. I’m also not sure how much she helps Dino Rossi or Dave Reichert.

I’d also say Michigan. People in MI relate to Palin, her outdoorsmen background. Minnesota too. Probably the reason Obama pulled out of North Dakota was due to Palin.

Quite a stretch there. Obama has a lead in Michigan, and while Minnesota has tightened, that may just be because the RNC was there. Not sure it has antyhing to do with Palin.

nickj116 on September 24, 2008 at 7:42 PM

I posted a pretty long sentiment about the liberals and what myself and really, what a good deal of the soldiers I know think about them and the war. If anyone is interested I’d throw it back up here tonight since the subject of military sentiment came up.

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:42 PM

I’m not buying ANY of these polls anymore.

The media can’t be trusted- and the polls are crap. I don’t care who they say is ahead.

They’re all pure crap.

FiveWays on September 24, 2008 at 7:42 PM

AP,

Why do you spend so much time (no pun intended) obsessing over rigged polls from liberal media outlets?

eyedoc on September 24, 2008 at 7:45 PM

There is no way in hell Obama leads in PA by nine points. None. He is carpetbombing TV here with ridiculous attack ads that nobody believes. He doesn’t realize it, but these constant attacks are making him look very un-presidential. I was in a business yesterday when one of them came on and the people in the business (all middle-class white women) started LAUGHING. Obama’s campaign is sending desperate-sounding emails to supporters here too. McCain and Palin drew thousands in Media on Tuesday and the coverage on local TV and in the papers was very positive. Republican chairman said phones are ringing off the hook and they have more volunteers than they know what to do with. One woman said she was a Democrat and came with her entire street and they were all Democrats voting for McCain-Palin.

rockmom on September 24, 2008 at 7:47 PM

I agree, there is no silver lining to an Obama victory, (shudder) and two. It is way past time for an adult beverage, or three. I know it makes me sound ugly, but I hope Boooooosh puts the fear of God into America tonight.

anniekc on September 24, 2008 at 7:53 PM

AP,

Why do you spend so much time (no pun intended) obsessing over rigged polls from liberal media outlets?

eyedoc on September 24, 2008 at 7:45 PM

AP, is an eternal pessimist who love to stir the sh!t.

Plus it keeps the posting traffic up.

The polls are crap, and AP’s stirring is crap.

FiveWays on September 24, 2008 at 7:54 PM

1. The war is lost.

2. The war is won.

3. ObamaSuperStar

4. Denver

5. Palin

6. St. Paul

7. PalinSuperStar

8. Billionaire Welfare

How many damn ups and down does this roller coaster have left in it?

What is next, a salvo of Scuds in the Straits?

Limerick on September 24, 2008 at 7:55 PM

Anyone ever thought that Time, WaPo, et al might be cooking the books on their polls? No accusations here, just, you know, like Democrats, asking questions.

The only poll that counts is the one taken on Nov 4th.

The MSM hasn’t found a way to screw with those vote counts. Yet.

GarandFan on September 24, 2008 at 7:55 PM

PA was part of my territory for all of 2000-2006, I have a hard time believing it’s going to go blue; Those people are more “Kansas” than Kansas is.

anniekc on September 24, 2008 at 7:56 PM

AP, what’s with the obsession with polls? You’re not a pollster, are you?

m064404 on September 24, 2008 at 7:57 PM

I was trading posts with some folks a couple of weeks ago now and the discussion got a bit animated about the war. Liberals seem to get pretty sensitive when you try to get an answer from them about how they can be so anti-war, anti-Bush and anti-American and still be “In Support of the Troops?” Well the answer is that they can’t.

I have very dear friends who are Democrats and they’re very fine people. And I come from a fairly liberal family who absolutely idolized John F. Kennedy. But I have long since parted ways with the politics of my parents and couldn’t be a bigger critic of the lefts unpatriotic behavior. I’m passionate and I don’t pull any punches in describing what I see as the overt and in your face actions of liberals that has bolstered the resolve of our enemies. My friends and family ask me constantly what it is that I think extreme liberals have done to earn the right to be called treacherous and seditious.

I’ve seen things on every deployment I’ve been on that makes me think that the Democratic Party and the MSM had it in for the war and thereby had it in for the military. I was in Iraq when the dems started their debates for the 04 election and no one can tell me the insurgency didn’t pick up after that. They get the news. They see our TV. We have captured intell that showed they followed our politics throughout the war. When Dennis Kucinich stood on a stage during a dem primary debate and said Pres. Bush cooked the war up in Texas and that it was illegal, me and my buddies just looked at each other in the DFAC in Balad Iraq and said OMG, does he want us to lose this thing? Then it was a none-stop who can outdo each other in deriding anything we did there. Abu Grahib and everything else was plastered on the front pages and any time we tried to push our gains or successes in battle to the press, it fell on deaf ears. We told them (the insurgents) to kill us. We told them in those debates and in the press that half of America didn’t think we even had the right to be there and that a smaller percentage of them thought we were criminals. I could go on for a whole blog.

But I’ll share one story with you that is the watershed moment for me. I was flying combat camera crews over Kirkuk and Erbel while Iraqis voted on the national referendum for their constitution. They said in the press that there would be violence and we were supposed to let these guys record what might happen in the cities to help understand enemy TTPs. The whole day there was nothing any of our crews saw but Iraqis pointing their purple fingers at our aircraft to say “Look at me. I voted on our constitution.“ Despite the heavy news coverage wailing about the carnage that would ensue, they went out in numbers Americans never dreamed of. My crew chiefs ended up being very excited and we were all anxious to get back to Anaconda to see the news. There was almost nothing. Less the next day. We as much told the Iraqi people in those days after the referendum we didn’t care about them. It was a milestone the press wouldn’t let the Bush Administration put in the plus column. Just one of many.
Liberal America wants us to lose to prove their point. So like I said, to a great extent, I blame them.”

John Murtha and John Kerry have both gone on the record to say our tactics in Iraq were in so many words, cruel or criminal. John Murtha convicted marines from Haditha almost before they even had their rights read to them. And by Kerry characterizing our looking for IED makers by night raid as terroristic, (And there is no reason, Bob, that young American soldiers need to be going into the homes of Iraqis in the dead of night, terrorizing kids and children, you know, women, breaking sort of the customs of the–of–the historical customs, religious customs. Whether you like it or not… ) I guess he prefers the sight of a burning US vehicle with the occupants strewn on MSR Tampa.

How long would it take for someone to list the endless parade of negative stories from just the New York Times about we in the military, the war in general and our country as a whole. I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to say they and a good majority of liberal America sided with our enemies while we were on the field of battle.

I can guarantee we won’t forget.

Sorry so long. Keep the faith and don’t let them win!

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:58 PM

Oh I don’t know Limerick, Maybe all of us fighting for a space in line at our respective banks, and then fighting for a place in the bread line?

NOT trying to be ugly, just very concerned-

anniekc on September 24, 2008 at 7:59 PM

Anyone ever thought that Time, WaPo, et al might be cooking the books on their polls? No accusations here, just, you know, like Democrats, asking questions.

GarandFan on September 24, 2008 at 7:55 PM

uhm…….you can bank on that.

FiveWays on September 24, 2008 at 8:00 PM

anniekc on September 24, 2008 at 7:59 PM

Concerned? Yeah, I get that part. What I don’t get is how we on Side Street, (forget the WSJ Main Street hokie), can do anything about it other then hunker down. Whatever Congress decides to do is beyond our control. There won’t be any recalls before whatever passes for a bill is plopped on GWs desk.

Limerick on September 24, 2008 at 8:04 PM

AP you are on a roll today!!! If I were you, I’d play the lottery (if I beleived in it) or go to Atlantic City. You are really on fire.

Fuquay Steve on September 24, 2008 at 8:23 PM

Anyone ever thought that Time, WaPo, et al might be cooking the books on their polls? No accusations here, just, you know, like Democrats, asking questions.

Zero chance. It would take too many people and if the manipulation was ever revealed, lots of people’s careers would be finished.

All for what?

SteveMG on September 24, 2008 at 8:24 PM

Can we analyze a few more polls today? Is it even possible? Lets take a poll on it! I say NO MAS.

Fuquay Steve on September 24, 2008 at 8:25 PM

Not exactly a student of either history or human nature, are you Brad?

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 7:30 PM

three decades with the military gives me far more confidence in their professionalism – no one is being enslaved and it is not 1860.
“I don’t like the MSM it is time to revolt and kill my fellow citizens.”
Stanley Tool of the first order you seem to be despite your Doctorate in American History.

Bradky on September 24, 2008 at 8:27 PM

There’s another brand new poll out showing McCain pulling ahead in all-important New Hampshire by 2.

Race42008.com has it, as do we at Libertarian Republican blog.

As much as I like Bob Barr, it looks as though he has dropped dramatically in NH since Palin was picked. Which indicates Palin was a brillant pick to win over libertarians to the GOP.

ericdondero on September 24, 2008 at 8:47 PM

“three decades with the military gives me far more confidence in their professionalism – no one is being enslaved and it is not 1860.
“I don’t like the MSM it is time to revolt and kill my fellow citizens.”
Stanley Tool of the first order you seem to be despite your Doctorate in American History.

Bradky on September 24, 2008 at 8:27 PM”

My three decades and the last four deployments tells me there is at least a strong sentiment that we’ve been sold down the river. I don’t see anyone doing anything like that either, but ask an active duty guy right here how he feels about liberals, the media and the prospect of Obama, who played political games with this war, being my CINC.

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 8:48 PM

Zero chance. It would take too many people and if the manipulation was ever revealed, lots of people’s careers would be finished.

All for what?

SteveMG

I wish that were so.

Take a look at:
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/24/obamas-weight-problem.php

The “weighting” used in the most recent ABC/WaPo poll (the one that shows Obama up by 9%) assumes that Democrats will reach record high turnouts and Republicans will reach record low turnouts. Most polls are using weightings around +3% for Democrats. This ABC/WaPo poll gets Obama up by 9% by assuming a +10% advantage for Democrats in turnout and an even larger advantage among leaners.

Hey. Maybe they’re right that 54% of the voters who show up at the polls in November will be registered Democrats — it could happen. But if they have reason to suspect that, that should be the lead. That would be a huge, huge story. Instead they bury that ASSUMPTION and lead with the obvious consequence of that assumption: Obama wins big if that happens.

Shenanigans, indeed.

ClintACK on September 24, 2008 at 8:56 PM

three decades with the military gives me far more confidence in their professionalism – no one is being enslaved and it is not 1860.
“I don’t like the MSM it is time to revolt and kill my fellow citizens.”
Stanley Tool of the first order you seem to be despite your Doctorate in American History. -Bradky on September 24, 2008 at 8:27 PM

I question both your authenticity and your grasp of history.

The rift goes beyond MSM tanking for socialism. Here’s a scenario, General Bradley: the states that went for Bush in 2004 form a compact and declare their independence from the United States. Assume that you, Mr. Military Experience, are president. What do you do? What DO you do?

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 9:27 PM

NBC & LAT? I don’t trust anything that they are involved with. They’re probably just trying to lull us into a false sense of security.

mrsmwp on September 24, 2008 at 10:10 PM

64% of people polled feel that Biden is prepared to be POTUS?

Well, Stand Up Chuck! Oh, God…what am I saying? I’m new at this.

But, seriously…people just want to know that their leaders know what their talking about.

I guess none of the respondents to this poll were alive to see FDR on TV back in ’29 talking about greedy fat cats…right?

Ready To Lead.

Dorvillian on September 24, 2008 at 10:40 PM

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 7:58 PM

Some of us knew and watched with hearts in mouths and sleeves. I’m sorry we weren’t able to do a better job of supporting you and your fellow servicemen, but the MSM is stacked as we all know. Never think that weren’t watching and praying, however. Thank you, and we honor your service.

Fortunata on September 24, 2008 at 10:46 PM

hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 8:48 PM

It is a testament to the professionalism of our military that they don’t get caught up in silly things like dreaming up rebellions and civil war. The ultimate in discipline is to continue to press on even when you have doubts as you described.
We survived the Clinton years and the low regard they had for our military. If Obama gets elected they will do the same, I have no doubts.

I question both your authenticity and your grasp of history.

ManlyRash on September 24, 2008 at 9:27 PM

Question all you want – I know what I did and don’t need to provide you a 214 to prove it.

Bradky on September 24, 2008 at 11:15 PM

Forget about the polls, the gulps and the panics. Its close and will remain so. the candidate has to deliver in the debates, whenever they happen, and we have to get ourselves, families and friends to the polls. then be ready for a late night on election night.

james23 on September 24, 2008 at 11:29 PM

Polls, even ones we like, mean very little, given the huge spoon of salt that has to me ingested with each.

Maybe if the media were actually neutral informers of the public, and if the sample sizes were larger (and they were less frequently done), reported polls might have some relevance.

It’s going to be a battle the whole damn way, esp because Obama’s Chicago machine will do everything in their power to tilt the numbers in his favor.

But it will be less of a battle if McCain destroys Obambi in the debates.

Harpazo on September 25, 2008 at 1:16 AM

Bradky on September 24, 2008 at 11:15 PM

You avoided addressing the scenario I raised. Here it is again: the states that went for Bush in 2004 form a compact and declare their independence from the United States. Assume for this hypothesis that you are president of the Unites States.

Do you give them your blessing and wave them good-bye? Or do you put on a stove-pipe hat and announce that the Union must be preserved at all costs?

ManlyRash on September 25, 2008 at 7:20 AM

Why is it that the Republicans REFUSE to question whether Obama is qualified to be President?

He clearly is not. No reasonable person has made the case that Obama is qualified to be President.

Yet they play defense on Palin. Every question about her qualifications should be immediately met with a question to the so-called “journalists” (i.e. pro bono media for the DNC), what qualifications worthless jackass Obama has? What has Obama accomplished?

Then go through what Palin has done. But if you immediately turn it around and fire back at the media’s candidate, neophyte Obama, they’ll get tired of asking it.

NoDonkey on September 25, 2008 at 9:23 AM