Fox News poll: Obama 45, McCain 39, nine-point swing since convention
posted at 2:55 pm on September 24, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Hard to fault the sample on this one when the party split’s precisely the same as it was for their last poll. Needless to say, it’s the economy, stupid, although McCain appears to have done some damage to himself too based on this trend:
At 47/36, down from 54/27 after the convention, Palin’s net favorables are now the lowest of the four candidates. A separate poll coming from NBC tonight will supposedly show that only 40 percent think she’s qualified to be president versus 49 percent who think she isn’t, although a majority of Fox News respondents say they’re at least somewhat comfortable with her as VP. If you believe Gallup, contra the reports after the convention of massive swings toward McCain among white women, she hasn’t done much to earn him extra votes within that demographic.
Oh, here’s some more good news. Looks like race relations are headed for a downturn if The One loses:
The polls are almost uniformly bad today and in some cases brutal, but rather than bludgeon you with horrible news I’ll point you to one that’s merely provocative yet discouraging. Behold:
Yes, yes, I know, the left perennially (quadrennially?) whines that pollsters underestimate Democratic support because they’re stuck sampling landline voters, not the cell-phone-only generation that tends to skew left. Historically the complaint’s been overblown because pollsters compensate for the missing cell-phone sample by adding more weight to young voters. The problem with doing that this year, apparently, is that young cell-phoners lean more heavily towards Obama than young landliners do, which means the pollsters might not be weighting the latter enough. Follow the link to the Pew survey and focus on the second table. We’re talking about a 10-point spread, which doesn’t feel like much given how relatively few cell-phone-only voters there are but in a close election might be decisive. Assuming, that is, that The One can get them to turn out.
Exit question good news: Gallup is unchanged from yesterday, and NPR’s survey of 14 battleground states actually has McCain up by two, although that’s within the margin of error.
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YOU are correct on this. I can’t believe others don’t see it.
I’ve never been a fan of McCain (though I AM onboard) – but this impresses me.
capitalist piglet on September 24, 2008 at 3:34 PM
McCain: Prove that I’m a leader and force Obama to be a follower.
Check
McCain: Postpone “Foreign Policy Debate”, his stronger position, to the final debate slot, instead of the “Domestic Policy Debate”, his weakest position, being the last debate that voters see before election.
Check
Conservative_SAHM on September 24, 2008 at 3:34 PM
Sapwolf on September 24, 2008 at 3:33 PM
ever been on the HuffPo site?
kareyk on September 24, 2008 at 3:35 PM
The Maverick is off to Washington on the Knee Pad Express.
If only he could just shut up, put Palin center stage and watch Obama self destruct. McCain’s worst enemy is McCain.
fogw on September 24, 2008 at 3:35 PM
There sure a lot of hand-wringers who post on this blog. Here’s what McCain just did:
He took personal charge of the the financial crisis and by extension the entire campaign.
This is McCain 101. Love him or hate him he does unexpected things that blows EVERYthing off the front page. This is a huge, bold move that whatever Obama does from here on out is always a response to McCain.
McCain leads. Its scary but he does lead.
JonPrichard on September 24, 2008 at 3:35 PM
I also believe this is a brilliant move by McCain. He is putting “Country First” and showing the American people that he is indeed a leader and not an empty suit senator like B. Hussien.
Winebabe on September 24, 2008 at 3:35 PM
They’ve been reading far too many phony-ass polls.
FiveWays on September 24, 2008 at 3:36 PM
i just heard that BHO asked McC to do a joint conference on their beliefs about how to handle this crisis, this morning. Then McC comes out this pm and leads the way without BHO campaign knowing it! Priceless……..
kareyk on September 24, 2008 at 3:38 PM
There’s one thing you have to remember Friday’s debate was on McCain’s strong suite,so if he’s willing to put that off then he finally get’s how important this bailout deal is, makes him look stronger and more willing to keep this country strong. It comes back to I’m willing to lose a campaign than lose a war COUNTRY FIRST!!! What a man.
tee866 on September 24, 2008 at 3:38 PM
Bradley and operation chaos I think will win the day.
Smart move on McCain’s part IMHO.
But, if Do’hbama wins, we had to suffer 4years under Carter to get a Reagan.
Again, who runs the polls? N’uff said.
RobertInAustin on September 24, 2008 at 3:39 PM
On Hannity: Some guy (Major Garret)giving a press conference says that Obama contacted McCain first to suggest they present a joint statement. McCain called back and agreed and then later made his announcement to suspend his campaign.
AubieJon on September 24, 2008 at 3:39 PM
Thank you John McCain. Just pulled a country first move and checkmated Obama at the same time. Leadership.
Hazard on September 24, 2008 at 3:40 PM
Gilda, you are so right. Obama could have won the election if he just did what McCain did, especially as the MSM would have magnified th effect x10.
But, Obama in a million years would have NEVER thought of this at all because he is SO SELFISH. It is always about HIM, the ONE, not the COUNTRY.
Sapwolf on September 24, 2008 at 3:40 PM
I think that internet polls are low balling Republicans because Republicans aren’t using email anymore.
Chakra Hammer on September 24, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Who’s the strong leader that we can take comfort will protect America?
The guy who proposes to issue a joint press release or the one who takes the entire economy and puts it on his shoulders at perhaps the expense of his own political aspirations?
JonPrichard on September 24, 2008 at 3:43 PM
When Pelosi said she wouldn’t let the Dems own this one without McCain on board, I thought the smart move would be for McCain to call on Obama to meet with him and the key players behind closed doors, and hammer out something they’d both be able to agree on, to take the issue off the table for this campaign.
(Do note that McCain said he would suspend campaigning, but didn’t mention what Palin would do, nor did he say they’d stop running ads.)
This puts him in the position of acting “presidential”, putting country first, etc. Obama is in a no-win situation. At best, he’ll agree with Mav eventually, which just shows he’s slow to make the right decision again.
What would be just delicious though… What if 0! refuses to call off the debate, and McCain stays in DC working on the financial crisis, and lets Palin debate The One in his place? That makes explicit the “our JV vs. your A Team”; even if he “beats” her in the debate, it proves nothing.
RoveSchmidt, you magnificent bastard!The Monster on September 24, 2008 at 3:43 PM
Campaign comm. say’s they aren’t going to change the date for the debate.
tee866 on September 24, 2008 at 3:45 PM
Excellent point. I wonder if that was also part of the strategy, maybe even after Palin/Biden debate in case the media slams Sarah really hard after her first national debate.
And if Obama backs out of a rescheduling, then he’s a coward.
Remember that McCain still wants to wipe the floor with O-man in the Foreign Policy debate. Just after we save the country.
Sapwolf on September 24, 2008 at 3:46 PM
Delicious indeed! I think Sarah would destroy little barry O. The ratings would be through the roof. Obambi would lose the election just on the pitiful telepropmter-less performance he is nearly guaranteed to deliver.
techno_barbarian on September 24, 2008 at 3:48 PM
tee866 on September 24, 2008 at 3:45 PM
Campaign comm. say’s they aren’t going to change the date for the debate
Just heard that myself.
kareyk on September 24, 2008 at 3:48 PM
We’re going to lose, and we’re going to lose bad.
I’m already making plans to move to Alasks and join the Alaskan Independence Party, where I can sit on a porch with Lady Sarah and watch the rest of the country commit suicide.
Lincoln on September 24, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Man, did you ever pick an inappropriate nick.
techno_barbarian on September 24, 2008 at 3:50 PM
McCain is also willing to suspend ad’s if the O agrees with him,talk about putting the pressure on the O’s camp.lol. Turn those screws just a little bit more.
tee866 on September 24, 2008 at 3:50 PM
McCain wants to work together and bring both sides of the aisle together to solve the financial crisis.
First of all, it can’t be solved. All they can do is put a bandaid on something they ignored before it became a crisis.
Secondly, compromising with Democrats is never a compromise. It’s a they win, we lose proposition. Anything else and they would never sign on.
Haven’t we learned anything? His buddies are the likes of Kennedy and Feingold.
fogw on September 24, 2008 at 3:51 PM
If this guy gets in, buy Muni bonds, the move to tax free income will be huge.
flyoverland on September 24, 2008 at 3:54 PM
“This is McCain 101. Love him or hate him he does unexpected things that blows EVERYthing off the front page. This is a huge, bold move that whatever Obama does from here on out is always a response to McCain.”
I am jsut worried, (more and more as the days and the media moves on), that no matter what happens it will be spun against McCain and Palin. I’ve tried to post comments on both MSNBCs “Luke Russert Apology” and CNNs “Bono Cancels” articles. There is not one conservative point of view listed. Coincidence? I posted to CNN 1 minute after the last comment. It was “In Moderation” for and hour and a half and then disappeared when a comments closed message went up.
In all my years of following elections, I have never seen anything like this. I feel in my heart they, (the media) are so scared of losing this election they are number 1, dropping any appearance of objectivity and 2, running counter stories poo-pooing the media bias at the same time.
On my way on post this morning I listened to a CBS radio newscast that absolutely gave the impression that McCain was responsible for the AIG, Mae, Mac and Leman failures and stressed that a campaign official of McCains was involved finacially. No mention of any Democratic involvement at all. Nothing!
Thsi is going to be an uphill fight and we have to figure out quickly how to get our word out.
hawkdriver on September 24, 2008 at 4:00 PM
techno_barbarian on September 24, 2008 at 3:50 PM
I’m depressed, I just don’t see how McCain/Palin is going to overcome the media’s character assassination campaign against them, and there are too many idiots in this country whose minds are too darkened to understand what a catastrophic choice Obama would be. This is the beginning of the end for our nation, especially with the threat of Iran and Russia looming.
I knew it would happen eventually, I just didn’t want to see it in my lifetime. =(
Lincoln on September 24, 2008 at 4:00 PM
I have no idea who will win or lose the election. It has proven to be the case time and again that when the economy is the issue, Democrats win. I don’t agree with that, but it is the way it is. Just like I think the Democrats are more responsible for the present crisis than people like Bush and McCain are, at least both of them have acknowledged the problem in the past.
But pubic opinion is saying something else and so I think it is a good thing that McCAin does this. It can serve two purposes, it can help resolve the issue and it can get us off this topic all day every day.
I do wonder about the polls however. I am not sure if they are correct, or if they are a reaction to the crisis and they will change when and if the crisis ceases to be an issue.
Terrye on September 24, 2008 at 4:01 PM
true. This move by McCain and OBH’s coming Debate Disaster should seal the Messiah’s fate
Lincoln, you need to take some of MB4’s meds…….
Janos Hunyadi on September 24, 2008 at 4:02 PM
Karey,
I’ve been to the HuffPo site, but only upon hitting a link and it goes there. Then I may read the story, but I pass on the comments because people there are mostly hateful, uninformed, uneducated, bitter, and appear to live in a world that is somewhat sheltered. They don’t get out much.
Sapwolf on September 24, 2008 at 4:02 PM
McCain= country first
Obama = party first
grapeknutz on September 24, 2008 at 4:17 PM
Oh crimanentlies- I go out for a couple of hours to get a few things done and the whole world turns upside down!
Did Obama actually call McCain “Henny Penny”? Guess he must have his mattress at home stuffed with cash, because things are starting to get a little scary….
anniekc on September 24, 2008 at 4:25 PM
You’ve thrown in the towel much too quickly. And I could not disagree with you more.
The American People are about to be FORCED to look at what’s going on. And the media, no matter how powerful and pervasive, are NOT going to be able to control this completely. Eventually, they’ll be exposed and discredited completely.
A lot of people need to lose their cushy jobs and some need to go to jail. We just might see that happening if they American People actually get wind of what’s really going on and who’s really behind it.
Watch Chakra’s link here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiEWCnpNnBQ) and decide for yourself that if every American saw the info for what it really is, if they would not turn on a dime against those who caused this to happen, and in turn also reject and villify the dem’s msm propaganda machine.
Buck up. America needs backbone and resolve right now. We’re already operating at capacity levels of spinelessness.
techno_barbarian on September 24, 2008 at 4:30 PM
Damn… link didn’t work like I thought.
Here ya go: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiEWCnpNnBQ
techno_barbarian on September 24, 2008 at 4:31 PM
Spending time focusing on national polls is not very useful, when we all know that the election result will boil down to what happens in a handful of battleground states. Right now, when we stay focused on this fact, McCain is looking pretty well positioned to win in November. So, we should all stop wringing our hands over polls like this one and work on getting our base out in record numbers in those states that really matter.
NuclearPhysicist on September 24, 2008 at 4:50 PM
I agree that the media has ratcheted up their open campaigning for the Democratic candidate. It was very obvious during the Kerry campaign and now there’s hardly any pretense of objectivity. The problem here is that this will have an impact on the independents except in cases where the media goes so far overboard that they hurt themselves, as they did leading up to the Palin speech.
McCain can only plead his case and hope enough gets through.
As far as this move to delay the debates, ehhhh…I don’t think John Q. Public sees this as a daring leadership move. To me it seems like what it is: a political move designed to force Obama into a devil’s choice. I personally believe that McCain has some credibility on this issue b/c of his trying to get some reform on fannie/freddie a few years back but I don’t in any way think independents who are not heavily engaged see things that way because they’re faced with a million conflicting accounts where many politicians are claiming they predicted this or tried to do something.
With that context, I don’t think either McCain’s proactive maneuvers or Obama’s passivity (both of which are default modes of the candidates) do much to sway anyone whose mind isn’t made up. I think that economy at the forefront is bad because McCain shares a party with the current prez and gets hit with some of the overspray in the minds of those not paying close attention.
My mind IS made up for the (more) conservative candidate and even I think this is a bit of grandstanding on McCain’s part. The only upside is that it forces Obama into a response that is equally calculated so we’ll have a draw.
akopp54 on September 24, 2008 at 4:50 PM
Leadership my butt. This is McCain’s inability to manage a problem except by grandstanding and his absolute contempt for the public. He’s every bit the drama queen that Hillary would have been, and I suspect every bit as paranoid about sharing power. By his own admission he doesn’t have a clue about the economy and he thinks he’s going to assert his magical personality to part the waters and bring bring both parties together.
Who’s really got the messiah-complex here?
sanguine4 on September 24, 2008 at 4:55 PM
@techno_barbarian: I really, REALLY hope you’re right. I can’t stomach the thought of another Jimmy Carter: Part 2 becoming President. And as we all know, the sequel is almost always more worse than the original.
Lincoln on September 24, 2008 at 4:58 PM
Dear John.
Don’t screw us like President Bush has for the past four years. Do the right thing.
Don’t bail out financial institutions whose business is MAKING MONEY BUT (and I say this next part biting my bottom lip) WHO DIDN’T SEE THIS COMING.
Stop talking about your war record and talk about Americans, us everyday Americans.
Stop talking about your “maverick” status and talk about specifics on the economy, the economy, and the economy.
Stop with the backdoor meetings with the amnesty crowd.
You turned your run for the office around. You made a good choice picking Gov. Palin.
DON’T SCREW IT UP!!!!
Joe American
madmonkphotog on September 24, 2008 at 5:35 PM
I love this suggestion. Since McCain will not be there and the Obama camp is inisting on a debate, mcCain should volunteer to let his VP nominee sit in for him against Obama on Friday.
http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2008/09/as-obama-balks.html
Laurence on September 24, 2008 at 5:35 PM
What’s with all the doom and gloom HA readers? McCain isn’t President yet but he’s stil a Senator and he has a job in the Senate to do which is to get this banking crisis settled. This will (or should at least) win over a lot of voters as it shows him stepping up on the issue people are concerned about the most at the moment.
Yakko77 on September 24, 2008 at 5:58 PM
Whatever the polls I think Americans are going to know the truth in this banking upheaval. The idea that tax increases and financial pressure of America’s employers will help the economy is about the dumbest view an American worker can take. If taxes go up and companies (including small business owners) must pay even higher tax penalties, who goes first? The answer is employees. The country will not benefit from Americans having less money to spend on American goods. Get smart voters and understand what is true and what is just being put forth as fiction.
McCain is doing what he has always done, representing the people of the United States. So who is putting Country First? Let’s see, debate to make self look important and gain power or suspend campaign and go do the job hired to do. No contest, I want my Senators working on this problem!
SayWhat on September 24, 2008 at 6:11 PM
I’d like to change one word of your excellent comment:
McCain= country first
Obama =
partySELF firstgrapeknutz on September 24, 2008 at 4:17 PM
SayWhat on September 24, 2008 at 6:16 PM
Xactmundo. THE analysis of McC’s decision. Either you show leadership or no in this situation.
Benjamin9 on September 24, 2008 at 6:18 PM
Brilliant? http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportUC.aspx?g=54d651a7-a62b-4420-bb32-9dd6b2df8c02
Maybe not.
A Axe on September 24, 2008 at 6:27 PM
Not so sure. Barry is framing it within the context of chewing gum and walking. A prez needs to be able to multi task and he has a point.
Not sure which message will gain traction.
moxie_neanderthal on September 24, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Join the McCain surge!
profitsbeard on September 25, 2008 at 12:42 AM
Plausible deniability? by Dr. John Lott 9/22/08
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,425924,00.html
Lott comes through yet again on a subject most of us should remember.
Winghunter on September 25, 2008 at 11:40 AM
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