Which convention drew independents?
posted at 2:10 pm on September 22, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Nielsen has researched the television audiences for the two major parties and discovers a surprising attraction for independent voters to the Republicans. Their numbers show that uncommitted voters had a higher percentage of engagement with John McCain than Barack Obama. Those trends hold up with committed voters, too:
Voters not yet committed to either candidate were 12% more engaged by TV coverage of the GOP convention than the Democratic convention, according to an analysis released Monday by Nielsen IAG. …
John McCain’s acceptance speech on September 4 drew the most attentive audience of uncommitted viewers, Nielsen reported. Telecasts of Barack Obama’s and Sarah Palin’s acceptance speeches on August 28 and September 3, respectively, tied in second place as the second most engaging telecasts among uncommitted viewers.
Overall, viewers were more engaged by the telecasts of the RNC vs. the DNC. Registered voters were 10% more engaged by the RNC than the DNC, while likely voters were 12% more engaged in RNC viewing.
Engagement numbers come from interviewing representative samples in order to determine how much each recalls of the various speeches. Not surprisingly, the most engaging moments of both conventions were the speeches of the nominees, including Sarah Palin but apparently not Joe Biden. Also not surprisingly, Obama’s speech won among younger voters — but that’s apparently it.
Given the historic nature of both conventions, this seems rather surprising. The raw viewer numbers were remarkably close, although McCain edged Obama by a thin margin. The lack of engagement may have a couple of origins. Just in terms of sequence, the Republicans had the last word and may have some advantage. However, Obama gave a remarkably banal speech, especially considering the setting which his campaign created for it. It did little to engage independents, instead focusing on the usual laundry list of government programs that doctrinaire liberals have advanced for decades. As I predicted at the time, independents didn’t hear anything new.
The Democrats had an opportunity to forge new alliances with the center. Instead, Obama chose to focus on shoring up his base and gave McCain an opening.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
What is the logic behind the notion that “undecideds” and independents are the same people?
Undecided are stupid, or attention seekers, or both. Independents are unlikely to be either.
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Well this is McCain’s strategy right? Straight up the middle and hi-ho silver!! we go. I don’t know what to think about this anymore. We’re down to trying to sway the most uninformed and least thoughtful voters. The people who shouldn’t vote and don’t seem to be very interested in actually being informed. But for some reason show up on election day. This is like when Steve Buscemi in Armageddon said “We’re sitting on four million pounds of fuel, one nuclear weapon and a thing that has 270,000 moving parts…built by the lowest bidder.”
D0WNT0WN on September 22, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Obama is so far to the left, how could any moderate independent find much common ground with him?
Elric66 on September 22, 2008 at 2:17 PM
……. who don’t show up on election day.
Finished it for ya.
fogw on September 22, 2008 at 2:17 PM
ok. I think we are getting a little bogged down with the continual stream of numbers tossed out there. Only one set of numbers count.
HawaiiLwyr on September 22, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Unfortunately, all that matters now is ‘Its the economy stupid’ and we know which party copyrighted that slogan.
meci on September 22, 2008 at 2:18 PM
I’ve been saying since I saw it: I loved Palin’s speech, but McCain’s speech moved me.
It struck a chord that was missed by so many at the time.
“They broke me.”
‘They broke me and love of my country made me whole again.’
I never much liked McCain before that speech. But while I still disagree with him on some issues, I do like him now.
Typhoon on September 22, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Yes, Ed. However, AllahPundit would tell you that, based on the polling data, McCain/Palin weren’t/aren’t able to hold Independents attention for very long.
Sultry Beauty on September 22, 2008 at 2:19 PM
we have to hope about this time next week the undecideds and indpendents break heavy towards McCain.
debates are crucial and I do not trust the lying media moderators. They are so corrupt at this point, I’m expecting them to be fwd the questions in advance to Obama and help set him up to pound McCain in the debates. and of course, especially biden against Palin
jp on September 22, 2008 at 2:19 PM
And when you consider that the DNC was on more networks then the RNC it’s even more interesting.
KCSteve on September 22, 2008 at 2:21 PM
These are the people who sometimes decide elections, after the democrats cast their vote for the democrat, and the republicans cast their vote for a republican.
If the republican primary voters defeated McCain and nominated someone like Fred Thompson, then we would possibly be not be looking at a 45 – 45 poll numbers, but more like 60 – 30 in favor of Obama.
McCain has made his political intentions clear. Obama is the most liberal senator in 2007, and is now pretending to me a moderate democrat and a uniter to attract more votes.
wise_man on September 22, 2008 at 2:22 PM
The Palin speech was fantastic, but it was better because of Rudy’s gloves-off w/ humor speech that punched holes in Obama. And McCain’s speech, or at least the last 1/3 of it, was riveting.
It is very difficult for me to take without question the polls right now that indicate a victory for Obama. The momentum seems to be John’s and the people that need appealing to seem to be listening to him. Time will tell, I suppose.
Spirit of 1776 on September 22, 2008 at 2:23 PM
As just pure television the RNC convention was better and was helped by the fact is was a day shorter.
It had drama and wit and good old fashioned media hatred
The red meat day when Fred Thompson and Sarah palin spoke had everything you could want. As charles Krauthemer said it was not just red meat but slaughtering a small cow on stage.
I enjoyed it very much. Take this Bipartisan nonsense and shove it. It doesn’t play in Peoria. Take the liberal and gut them on stage while we watch and belly laugh and eat popcorn. Ah yes
This plus conservatism works
kangjie on September 22, 2008 at 2:23 PM
Americans are NOT socialists and they know one when they see one. Most do anyhow.
DerKrieger on September 22, 2008 at 2:23 PM
O/T but I need to ask with the rumor of Biden being gone after the debate do to “health” issues isn’t it to late to change VP’s since they opened voting today in 3 states?
tee866 on September 22, 2008 at 2:24 PM
seems to me, if this is a sign of many key voters being very weary of Obama, then all McCain needs to do is continue to highlight all the lies and shady dealings of Obama along with the “Most Liberal Senator” tag. Then point out: “You know me, a Leader you can Trust”
Obama knows this which is why he and his lying Media keep calling mccain a liar at every turn they think they can.
jp on September 22, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Purely speculative, and likely false. McCain’s campaign came to life with the pick of Palin – she brought the base.
In fact, previous to that time, conservative veterans on the national scale were commenting on how McCain ‘wasted’ the time leading up to the D conv.
Spirit of 1776 on September 22, 2008 at 2:26 PM
this early voting crap, combined with ACORN and voter fraud, is another thing that concerns me in this whole election.
jp on September 22, 2008 at 2:26 PM
The Onion News Network calls them “Idjit Voters.”
ManlyRash on September 22, 2008 at 2:28 PM
I think Obama was so prevalent in the media due to the extensive coverage of the primaries that, going into the conventions, people who were curious about the candidates felt like they knew Obama already. McCain, despite securing the nomination months earlier, or perhaps even because his nomination was secured months earlier, was not covered as much and therefore was still not familiar to the independent/undecided electorate.
hisfrogness on September 22, 2008 at 2:28 PM
We’re gonna get those 5-6% undecided voters!
lodge on September 22, 2008 at 2:28 PM
Whatever you say.
wise_man on September 22, 2008 at 2:29 PM
What I see, but does not seem to be in the polls, is that many, if not most, of the independents are CONSERVATIVES.
Many conservatives, like myself, left the Republican party over fiscal policy, and the growing of the government.
So, of course we independents were more engaged by McCain, vice Obama… McCain at least sometimes pretends to be Conservative… Bambi does not even try.
Romeo13 on September 22, 2008 at 2:31 PM
These kind of facts are why the Oslime-a camp is in full court press mode.
1) The indies are engaging the reps.
2) Women are flocking to Sarah
3) Reagan dems are rejecting Oslime-a’s race baiting.
4) Once safe dem states are now bare knuckle fights just to stay even.
5) Generic congressional preferences have increased by huge amounts in favor of the reps.
6) The ads exposing Oslime-a for the slime bag he is are resonating with all demographics. Except for the ignorant fool demographic. Those tools are brain dead.
7) For the third day in a row, McCain is in a statistical tie with The Messiah.
csdeven on September 22, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Oil up 25 dollar’s a barrel today so far…just love this buy out deal.
tee866 on September 22, 2008 at 2:34 PM
I fear that’s no longer true. I fear people see this bail out deal and wonder where the capitalists and constitutionalists are. I fear that too many people don’t remember or were not alive for Jimmy Carter or the Soviet Union or LBJ’s Great Society. I fear that Americans will vote for socialism so long as you don’t call it socialism. I fear that they will vote for anti-Americanism as long as you call it “true patriotism”. I am very worried. I hope you’re right.
D0WNT0WN on September 22, 2008 at 2:38 PM
These are highly educated professionals, with positions of influence in many fields, especially the media. Don’t underestimate their danger. They are highly indoctrinated, and highly motivated, and vote, and contribute.
(but those worthless fu*** are still gonna lose!)
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Brain dead is the wrong adjective. I guess what I’m saying is that they care not for the facts and vote simply because of shallow reasoning.
csdeven on September 22, 2008 at 2:40 PM
The Republicans were positive and forward-looking while the Dems were negative and pessimistic. It only makes sense…
thedudesblog on September 22, 2008 at 2:41 PM
I think the polls are more skewed then anything.
I don’t know anyone who isn’t asking me questions about my Gov and are actually looking forward to the election for the first time in years.
Also, with the bailout …. people are getting worried. If McCain and palin can get the Mortgage companies and insurance companies back up to par and with minimal damage to all the tax payers (which I think these companies should pay back the Gov. as we the tax payers are paying them twice) I think this will go far …. so far in fact that most will put aside some differences to keep that enthusism going.
upinak on September 22, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Gold and swiss francs up again too.
The US Treasury has to print almost unlimited quantities of money to pay for the bailout. This will drive the value of the dollar down (that’s what you’re seeing in the oil price rise.) The only way the dollar can survive this that I can see, is if Europe’s and Asia’s economies implode even more than ours. Then the dollar may still be seen as a place to flee for safety–as we saw the other day when everyone ran to treasuries to escape the MM’s. Personally, I’m having my doubts.
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Yeah, there are the brain dead slugs. But then I guess the group I was describing is his hard core supporters. They are very influential, especially with the slugs. I have personal experience with both.
btw, good to “see” you.
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 2:44 PM
Wanna go in on a gold claim? j/k
upinak on September 22, 2008 at 2:47 PM
makes sense since most recent independents are really reps that grew frustrated with Bush.
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 2:50 PM
oh this is great:
Crude has gained about $40 in a dramatic four-day rally that has at least temporarily halted oil’s steep two-month slide below $100. At this rate, crude is within striking distance of its all-time record of $147.27, reached in July.
“We’re off to the races again in crude,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill. “There’s a renewed scramble for commodities because of a general weakness in the dollar.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080922/oil_prices.html
I’m about ready to buy can goods and ammo
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 2:52 PM
You always make me laugh:) Try ABX or GLD or FXF if you have some excess cash that you intend to keep long-term for a rainy day. You may be able to preserve some purchasing power by not keeping everything you have denominated in US dollars.
If you own stock, diversify overseas as well, using index-fund-like ETF’s. That gives you access to other markets and other economies, and your investment is held in currencies other than dollars.
This would have been exotic advice ten years ago, but today it’s prudent.
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 2:55 PM
Don’t forget bottled water.
I have a years worth of food… I just need more water and to get a couple cords of wood now.
upinak on September 22, 2008 at 2:57 PM
I think one explanation is that the Republican convention had more well-known “centrists” (some of us would call them liberal Republicans or RINOs) speaking in high-profile slots than did the Dem convention. I’m sure that helped attract some viewers, although I suspect the biggest draw was the excitement of McCain’s unconventional running mate.
In addition, I think there may be another factor that touches on Ed’s point below.
[emphasis added]
Haven’t race relations in our country evolved to a point where the “historic nature” of O!’s nomination is welcomed, perhaps, but no longer thought of as remarkable?
I can remember watching the hype prior to Super Bowl XXII twenty years ago. Recall, that was the one where the Broncos were supposed to demolish my team, the Redskins. Much of the non-sports hype was because the starting QB, Doug Williams, is black and was, at the time, the first black QB to start a Super Bowl. Williams played the game of his career, leading the ‘Skins to victory. After the game, I remember our local sportscaster saying that now we could put to bed all the talk about black quarterbacks in the NFL.
We are lucky to live in a time in America where we have all personally witnessed many of those types of “firsts,” ie: personal achievements by people of color in endeavors once unavailable to them. It’s a terrific thing.
There are, and have been, many great black leaders and politicians, who have been on both the national and international stage. President Bush has had several in his administration. And, other black politicians have run for President, albeit never in the general election.
I guess I’m saying that when you look at the “historic” nature of O!’s campaign, and by extension the Dem convention, it is pretty limited. It really just boils down to a natural extension of the progress we’ve been making for decades. So I’m not sure what the viewership “draw” would be, except perhaps for black people.
I chose not to watch the Dem convention, primarily because of the bitter rancor between the O! and Clinton camps, and because of the slimy way that the Dems kept changing the rules in their primary up to and through their convention. There may have been independents and undecideds who, like me, were turned off by the Chicago-style politics in evidence during the Dem primary.
Y-not on September 22, 2008 at 2:58 PM
Jai :) hey I try!
But as for stocks. I have tried and I won’t do them again, to me stocks are a waste as it is imaginary money. I will always buy gold and these copper disks (I have made a good bit of money on them) to hold onto. As well as bonds.. as I have no problem waiting.
But when I said claim, I have a friend who is too old to work on his gold claim and is thinking about spliting the margin if I go in with him … I may actually get into it. Haven’t decided yet.
upinak on September 22, 2008 at 2:59 PM
upinak on September 22, 2008 at 2:57 PM
I have a well and generator. A 4 acre pond and can boil what I need.
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 3:00 PM
Inflation is on it’s way. Better get out of debt quick and take advantage of some of the interest rates coming our way. I’m sure T bill rates will go up too, might be worth checking them out as bailout financing kicks in.
“Thems that knows it earns it, thems that don’t pays it.”
batter on September 22, 2008 at 3:02 PM
Which is why I am going to be an Election Judge. Everyone should call their local Republican HQ and see if a judge is needed in their precinct. It is IMPERATIVE that there be a Republican at EVERY precinct to monitor this election.
mrsmwp on September 22, 2008 at 3:04 PM
Not ignoring the Independents in Florida, and what about all those folks who voted for Hillary but the DNC devalued their vote ??? I wonder who they will vote for :)
This is a link to a friend’s blog, who was at the Florida Rally stood in the sun and waited. Didn’t mind was voting for Hillary Clinton but now a McCain/Palin supporter.
http://bellalu0.wordpress.com/2008/09/22/palin-power-under-hot-florida-sun/
Dr Evil on September 22, 2008 at 3:18 PM
Inflation is on it’s way. Better get out of debt quick and take advantage of some of the interest rates coming our way. I’m sure T bill rates will go up too, might be worth checking them out as bailout financing kicks in.
“Thems that knows it earns it, thems that don’t pays it.”
batter on September 22, 2008 at 3:02 PM
It depends on what debt. If you have a fixed interest rate that is a good debt during inflationary times. non fixed debt like credit cards are bad since the banks can continue to increase your rates at a moment’s notice. If your debt is fixed at say 5% and inflation is running at 15% then you are in a sweet spot because you are paying the same amount of money ( which is now worth less) for the loan. during deflationary events like we are going through the reverse is true. You would want to pay off your fixed debts first and leave the non fixed debts alon since interest rates should fall.
Over the last year and a half we have had a deflationary eevent in homes and stocks. An inflationary event in energy and food.
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 3:24 PM
Either of you, or both, might like reading The Road, by Cormac McCarthy. It’s a brutal tale of when people will have to survive off the grid, but not for the feint-hearted.
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 3:26 PM
Damn good book. Definately gets my two thumbs-up.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on September 22, 2008 at 3:27 PM
Yep, could happen. Remember the days of 16% CD’s and Treasuries? Although that was wildly inflationary for housing as well. It’s so damn complicated and inter-related.
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 3:28 PM
don’t.
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 3:29 PM
Yep, could happen. Remember the days of 16% CD’s and Treasuries? Although that was wildly inflationary for housing as well. It’s so damn complicated and inter-related.
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 3:28 PM
well considering they at a zero interest now. I would suggest to our great leaders to refinace our debt NOW. but as the interest rate goes up bonds go down in vaule. Bonds are the highest vaule now. They can only go down from zero. Buying a bond at 0% and selling at 16% will be a negative. You need to buy the bond at 16% and sell it when it gets to zero percent to make a profit. At 16% interest you are basically buying a bond at 84cents on the dollar and at maturity it pays you a dollar. that is why high interest bonds are considered high risk of default. The companies and gov has to pay high interest to cover the added risk of default. T-bill trading at near zero percent right now say that people are flocking to these bonds because of safety not for profit.
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 3:58 PM
basically bonds are very bad investment right now. Tbills are paying now interest and are fully vauled. There really is no good investment right now as all investments are based on emotion. Oil going up $40.00 in 4 days is a sign of fear, so is gold going up $100 in a day, stocks going up and down and Tbills trading at zero interest are all signs of fear and uncertainity. There is no safe investment at the moment because no one knows what is coming. Like I said above the safest investment at the moment would appear to be can goods and ammo. either way it protects you and will keep you alive no matter what happens plus it protects you against food inflation. People that bought can goods last year have a 20-30% return on their money
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 4:03 PM
Totally agree. I should’ve been more specific on which debt I was referencing. The first situation you describe would also be ideal, for those with a crystal ball (take out a loan at 5% fixed and reinvest at a higher rate as inflation kicks in). Of course, you may not need a crystal ball anymore, just have the govt bail you out when your gamble doesn’t pay off.
batter on September 22, 2008 at 4:04 PM
LOL. Don’t worry. I get all that. I’m ultra short. Only went into Treasuries in a big way last week, because I wanted out of my MM. I knew I’d get no return–even a slight negative. But I wanted safety.
I will have liquid stuff to put in if/when inflation pushes T bills and notes way back up.
As for the gov’t refinancing now, who would buy long?
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 4:07 PM
batter on September 22, 2008 at 4:04 PM
yeah but who is going to bail out the gov. I and the rest of America is broke. Are we going to sell are country. No more than ever we need a person like Palin in a leadership postion to tell these idiots to go to H*ll.
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 4:07 PM
Who would of thought Chef Boyardee would be an investor’s dream?!
batter on September 22, 2008 at 4:08 PM
What int. rate would the gov’t have to offer on 30 year bonds to get you to bite?
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 4:09 PM
That’s my greatest concern at this point. We’ve fallen back on all the “fall backs” we have.
batter on September 22, 2008 at 4:10 PM
As for the gov’t refinancing now, who would buy long?
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 4:07 PM
those seeking safety would buy a 30 yr Tbill for what 2 or 3% . Im’ not even sure what 10 yr or 30 yr bonds are going at now. i’ve been to concentrated on the short term. But the gov needs to reissue 30yr, and make a new 40 and 50 yr bond for this mess. We can finance the debt out to 40 ,50 yrs
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 4:11 PM
What int. rate would the gov’t have to offer on 30 year bonds to get you to bite?
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 4:09 PM
good question. I’m not a long term thinking guy when it comes to investments. But pension plans and other long term instruments would be happy to have a locked in secure return on their money. As well as sovergien wealth funds and national funds like China. a 4-5% return on your money over 30 years that is 100% secure is an attractive offer to some during this crazy time.
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 4:15 PM
Sorry, but I’m with D0WNT0WN on this one. Americans have largely stipulated to some degree of socialism already (see: Social Security, Medicare, seniors’ prescription drug benefits, public education, all of which the overwhelming majority of Americans accept as legitimate), and the differences between the Rs and the Ds at this point is only over how much further to expand it.
To allude to an old joke, at this point we’re just haggling over the price.
Alex_SF on September 22, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Who would of thought Chef Boyardee would be an investor’s dream?!
batter on September 22, 2008 at 4:08 PM
crazy huh. but true. Can goods were a great investment over the last year.
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 4:16 PM
and the differences between the Rs and the Ds at this point is only over how much further to expand it.
To allude to an old joke, at this point we’re just haggling over the price.
Alex_SF on September 22, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Yeah but the surge of Palin shows that voters when offered a different vision can and will grap onto it. washington thinks the only way to get our votes is to give us stuff but there are other ways to secure our votes. Many still believe in small gov, less taxes, less programs, individual excellence, capitalism and hard work. IMO if we are given that kind of difference most Americans will choose the latter.
The problem is the deck is so stacked against people being able to make it in this world that the gov socialist alternative starts to look good. This is the direct result of gov policies over the last 20 years that drove people off the tax rolls onto the dole and allowed big money to corrupt the system at the same time.
unseen on September 22, 2008 at 4:21 PM
Under Reagan we had a spiritual leader. Under Bush we’ve had a Democrat appeaser. Let’s get back to saying the word “no”. If it ain’t in the constitution, it ain’t in the budget.
Mojave Mark on September 22, 2008 at 9:29 PM