Opposing the bailout plan — from the Right

posted at 12:00 pm on September 22, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

Two voices have arisen in opposition to the Bush administration’s bailout plan for the credit markets.  William Kristol and Rep. Mike Pence have voiced early opposition to the nearly $1 trillion plan that Congress will hastily address this week.  While both see the need for action, Pence especially argues that the proposal will extend the same bad practices that led to the meltdown in the first place:

“The administration’s request amounts to the largest corporate bailout in American history,” Pence said. “Congress should act, but should act in a way that protects the integrity of our free market and protects the American taxpayer from more debt and higher taxes.”

Pence offered a number of alternatives, from suspending capital gains taxes to passing a comprehensive energy bill to establishing a commission to overhaul entitlement spending, but nothing that would give the markets the financial security Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and others believe they desperately need.

“Congress must not hastily embrace a cure that may do more harm to our economy than the disease of bad debt,” Pence said.

The Indiana Republican also stokes an ongoing call to overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-sponsored mortgage giants that act as a backdrop for most Americans’ home loans. The Treasury Department could use Fannie and Freddie as financial vehicles to purchase some of the bad debt before Congress grants it broader authority.

Kristol has the same concerns.  He argues for a different solution, not out of a sense of “ideological purity”, but because government intervention has already proven disastrous in this crisis:

A huge speculative housing bubble has collapsed. We’re going to have a recession. Unemployment will go up. Credit is going to be tighter. The challenge is to contain the damage to a “normal” recession — and to prevent a devastating series of bank runs, a collapse of the credit markets and a full-bore depression.

Everyone seems to agree on the need for a big and comprehensive plan, and that the markets have to have some confidence that help is on the way. Funds need to be supplied, trading markets need to be stabilized, solvent institutions needs to be protected, and insolvent institutions need to be put on the path to a deliberate liquidation or reorganization.

But is the administration’s proposal the right way to do this? It would enable the Treasury, without Congressionally approved guidelines as to pricing or procedure, to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars of financial assets, and hire private firms to manage and sell them, presumably at their discretion There are no provisions for — or even promises of — disclosure, accountability or transparency. Surely Congress can at least ask some hard questions about such an open-ended commitment.

The crux of the skepticism over the plan comes from an absurd protocol at the heart of it.  It makes Henry Paulson a de facto financial czar, in charge of potentially a trillion dollars in taxpayer money with no accountability whatsoever for his actions.  Here’s the relevant proviso in the legislation:

“Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”

We don’t allow this kind of free agency from elected officials, let alone political appointees.  Not even in his role of Commander-in-Chief does a President have a mandate that is completely unreviewable.  Henry Paulson may or may not be the most brilliant thinker in high finance, but even if he was, why would Americans want to give him literally a carte blanche with the equivalent of one-third of our annual budget?  With no review possible?

It’s absurd, and at its heart, it’s un-American, in the sense that America exists precisely because of our desire to rein in government and make it accountable to the people.  We gave up on the monarchy in 1776.  We certainly didn’t do that to trade in King George for Czar Henry.  Only in a panic, in which Congressional leadership abdicates its role to keep executive power in check, would any American Congress agree to surrender its Constitutional mandate for oversight.  And that panic may be taking place now.

Barack Obama has decided to wait a few days to study the matter before determining whether to offer his support.  His only impulse in opposition thus far has been to demand a partnering stimulus package, in which government would spend even more money as it prepared to buy a trillion dollars of debt.  John McCain seems to be thinking more clearly.  He has called for an oversight board to run the bailout rather than a single appointee, and today expressed his misgivings:

I am greatly concerned that the plan gives a single individual the unprecedented power to spend $1 trillion – trillion – dollars without any meaningful accountability.  Never before in the history of our nation has so much power and money been concentrated in the hands of one person.  This arrangement makes me deeply uncomfortable.  When we are talking about a trillion dollars of taxpayer money “trust me” just isn’t good enough.

We will not solve a problem caused by poor oversight with a plan that has no oversight.  Part of the reason we are facing this crisis is an antiquated regulatory system of uncoordinated agencies that haven’t been doing the job.

I believe we need a high level oversight board to impose accountability and establish concrete criteria for who gets help and who does not.  They must ensure that throughout this crisis, the government is a careful steward of the taxpayer’s dollars.  The oversight board should be bipartisan and have qualified citizens who have no agenda but the protection of taxpayers and the financial markets.  People like: Warren Buffet, who supports my opponent, Governor Romney, who supports me, or Mayor Bloomberg, an independent.

The firms we help need accountability too.  We cannot have taxpayers footing the bill for bloated golden parachutes like we see in the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, where the top executives are asking for $2.5 billion in bonuses after they ran the company into the ground.  The senior executives of any firm that is bailed out by treasury should not be making more than the highest paid government official.

I would also urge transparency throughout this process.  The American people have the right to know which firms will be helped, what that selection will be based on and how much that help will cost.  The details of the process and the transaction itself should all be made available online for public scrutiny.

We got into this crisis through a curious blend of government intervention and lack of oversight.  Democrats and Republicans both tried manipulating the credit market for political purposes, demanding lower standards for lending while not supervising the accounting practices that resulted.  At first blush, this plan looks like more of the same, only this time we’ll spend massive amounts of taxpayer money directly and have absolutely no oversight on how it will be spent.

Given the government’s blame in creating this crisis, I understand the necessity in the government taking action to defuse it before it creates a global financial meltdown.  However, we need to correct the problems we created in the first place, not by giving $1 trillion to a single person with no accountability whatsoever, but by dismantling the machinery of government interference that gave birth to the credit crisis.  In the short run, we need a lot more accountability in government, not less, in order to ensure that the long-term goal of getting Washington out of private lending policy reaches success.  This plan goes in the wrong direction.

Blowback

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Tsar Paulson’s plan for America – Cash for Trash.

KentAllard on September 22, 2008 at 12:03 PM

MM is concerned about Paulson. Very alarming.

RushBaby on September 22, 2008 at 12:04 PM

McCain is thinking correctly. Warren Buffett and Bloomberg you could trust to sort this mess out, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs…who knows

Giving Comrade Paulson a trillion bucks to do with as he pleases is insane.

lodge on September 22, 2008 at 12:06 PM

I oppose it as well. The government caused this mess with the CRA and Sarbanes-Oxley. I don’t trust them to fix it. I would rather they rescind the market-distorting rules they put in, and let real estate find its own equilibrium. At best, I would consider an RTC type entity to pick up the truly default loans, at a steep discount, and to resell them after the smoke clears. And, don’t forget – RTC lost 30 cents on the dollar in the nineties, on a much smaller portfolio.

Vashta.Nerada on September 22, 2008 at 12:07 PM

The bailout plan is such a terrible idea, no matter what side you’re on. It’s a hasty, panicky decision that will come back to bite us all in the arse.

mjk on September 22, 2008 at 12:08 PM

This is very well written:

The point of the [bailout] is to provide a bid for the bad mortgage-based assets that, in Paulson’s words, are “clogging the balance sheets” of many financial institutions. He wants to provide a market so that financial firms can sell these assets and get on with life.

The price at which they will be sold is all-important. Get it too low, and you’ll put a lot of firms out of business, because they will be forced to realize capital losses they can’t recover from.

Get it too high, and you’ll be doing two extremely bad things: you’ll be rewarding banks and Wall Street for making bad decisions; and you’ll expose the taxpayers to losses and inflation.

So the key question for Paulson and Bernanke is: who will be determining the valuation? You want above all to make sure that this job is done right, which means getting the best available people from the private sector to do it. How will they be compensated, and what are their incentives?

Already Barney Frank is saying that the people who do the valuation must not be allowed to make a lot of money. How do you get really top people on that basis? Given the dire implications of getting this wrong, it’s charitable to say that Mr. Frank is being shortsighted and probably a little vindictive.

The really deep problem I have, however, is this: what if the true, correct valuation of distressed mortgage-backed assets is actually very, very low? Like, say, five or ten cents on the dollar?

This outcome, if it happens, would be reflective of the fact that the housing industry significantly overbuilt, in response to the price bubble that burst in 2006. And that’s a misallocation of resources that simply can’t be willed away by bailouts, taxpayer handouts to Democratic constituencies, or fairy dust.

http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/sep/22/a-few-important-questions-for-mr-paulson-and/

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/jpodhoretz/31851

Mr. Joe on September 22, 2008 at 12:08 PM

General Lee got better surrender terms from General Grant than the American people are getting from Henry “Goldman Sachs” Paulson.

MB4 on September 22, 2008 at 12:08 PM

somewhere there is a golden opportunity for McCain to scoop the empty suit…..come up with a plan, get out there with it and win the election…..

Exit question: How long until (Pres. Debates) he announces his plan to drill ANWAR based on Cuda’s influence????

SDarchitect on September 22, 2008 at 12:10 PM

Newt weighed in on this yesterday on NRO’s The Corner, the link of which was posted late last night on insta-pundit. Newt worked very fast to come up with some detailed analysis and recommendations. I haven’t read Kristol yet but I did catch some strong language from a lady name Michelle Malkin this Morning. I leave it to you and others to compare and contrast Newt with Pence.

Nyog_of_the_Bog on September 22, 2008 at 12:11 PM

If the Gov. is going to bail out defaulted loans with low interest rates and delayed non-interest loans…I am going into default.

right2bright on September 22, 2008 at 12:11 PM

McCain is brilliant!

He is now running to the left of Barney Frank so as to attack Obama from the left. Classic envelopment.

Barry is now so far to the right of McCain that he can be called a tool of the corporate elite.

What appears to be fecklessness is in actuallity a strategic effort to close the pandering gap!

Bravo John! Bravo!

moxie_neanderthal on September 22, 2008 at 12:12 PM

The price at which they will be sold is all-important. Get it too low, and you’ll put a lot of firms out of business, because they will be forced to realize capital losses they can’t recover from.

Get it too high, and you’ll be doing two extremely bad things: you’ll be rewarding banks and Wall Street for making bad decisions; and you’ll expose the taxpayers to losses and inflation.

So the key question for Paulson and Bernanke is: who will be determining the valuation? You want above all to make sure that this job is done right, which means getting the best available people from the private sector to do it. How will they be compensated, and what are their incentives?

Mr. Joe on September 22, 2008 at 12:08 PM

Good points. Building in a checks & balances component that doesn’t interfere with Treasury’s ability to move quickly would help prevent this from becoming a boondoggle.

dedalus on September 22, 2008 at 12:14 PM

IMO, Nouriel Roubini, NYU Professor of Economics, has had a good handle on this, and should be read if you want some clearer info on what’s going on.

Nouriel Roubini | Sep 21, 2008

The Financial Times published in its Monday edition my Op-Ed column “The Shadow Banking System is Unravelling”. The column was written and posted on their web site a few hours before the sudden announcement of the end of major independent broker dealers with the Fed announcement that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will become bank holding companies and will be thus regulated as banks. This is the additional step in the demise of Wall Street as we know it and the unraveling and demise of the “shadow banking system” that I described in my Financial Times Op-Ed column.

You should read the whole article for his opinion of what lies in store:

The third stage was the collapse of other leveraged institutions that were both illiquid and most likely insolvent given their reckless lending: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, AIG and more than 300 mortgage lenders.

The fourth stage was panic in the money markets. Funds were competing aggressively for assets and, in order to provide higher returns to attract investors, some of them invested in illiquid instruments. Once these investments went bust, panic ensued among investors, leading to a massive run on such funds. This would have been disastrous; so, in another radical departure, the US extended deposit insurance to the funds.

The next stage will be a run on thousands of highly leveraged hedge funds. After a brief lock-up period, investors in such funds can redeem their investments on a quarterly basis; thus a bank-like run on hedge funds is highly possible. Hundreds of smaller, younger funds that have taken excessive risks with high leverage and are poorly managed may collapse. A massive shake-out of the bloated hedge fund industry is likely in the next two years.

Even private equity firms and their reckless, highly leveraged buy-outs will not be spared. The private equity bubble led to more than $1,000bn of LBOs that should never have occurred. The run on these LBOs is slowed by the existence of “convenant-lite” clauses, which do not include traditional default triggers, and “payment-in-kind toggles”, which allow borrowers to defer cash interest payments and accrue more debt, but these only delay the eventual refinancing crisis and will make uglier the bankruptcy that will follow. Even the largest LBOs, such as GMAC and Chrysler, are now at risk.

We are observing an accelerated run on the shadow banking system that is leading to its unravelling. If lender-of-last-resort support and deposit insurance are extended to more of its members, these institutions will have to be regulated like banks, to avoid moral hazard. Of course this severe financial crisis is also taking its toll on traditional banks: hundreds are insolvent and will have to close.

There’s more at the site if you’re interested.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:14 PM

Frankly, I am astounded that Senator Christopher Dodd is not facing a criminal investigation. His job was to oversee Fannie and Freddie, and not only did he ignore their accounting, he was the top recipient of campaign contributions (read bribe money). Obama and Clinton round out the top three recipients, if I am not mistaken.

Vashta.Nerada on September 22, 2008 at 12:15 PM

McCain came up with the brilliant idea of putting in one of this fiasco’s prime architects, Andrew Cuomo – former Clintinoid HUD admin – as SEC chairman.

The only thing keeping that idiot RINO bastard breathing at all is Sarah Palin.

TexasJew on September 22, 2008 at 12:16 PM

A lot of this is going to come down to “who do you trust?” Buffet and Romney are both excellent choices. Bloomberg? I don’t know.

No matter how this goes down, one person will be leading the effort. There should be a board or committee or whatever for approval and oversight, but these things work best when the buck stops with one person.

ErikTheRed on September 22, 2008 at 12:17 PM

Vashta.Nerada on September 22, 2008 at 12:15 PM

His job is not to oversee Freddie and Fannie at all.
It was Congress’ job, so jail Dodd and Frank.
You are pathetically ignorant, so shut the hell up.

TexasJew on September 22, 2008 at 12:18 PM

A NY Times article on Roubin, who they call Dr. Doom.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:18 PM

At the end of the day, that 1 trillion dollar figure is a gross estimate, not a net number. When the dust settles and the assets are liquidated it may be that the treasury eats a $150 billion or higher loss…but its not like this trillion is an operating expense or anything.

Also, seeing as the smartest people on the planet got us into this mess and are now sitting around wondering wtf just happened…how is oversight by surely less knowledgeable politicians or judges going to help anything.

Its obvious that even the most crooked of financial CEO’s knows more about this mess than the legislators…and yet its those CEO’s who dont know wtf to do.

What on earth do we do? Support the plan, oppose it? How are we to know? The smartest people in the world don’t know…are we even justified in forming an opinion on the matter?

ernesto on September 22, 2008 at 12:18 PM

The oversight board should be bipartisan and have qualified citizens who have no agenda but the protection of taxpayers and the financial markets. People like: Warren Buffet, who supports my opponent, Governor Romney, who supports me, or Mayor Bloomberg, an independent.

Second thoughts, John?

Vashta.Nerada on September 22, 2008 at 12:19 PM

all they’re going to do is paper over the problem without fixing what got us into this mess in the first place. they should elminate the community redevelopment act at the heart of this. then elminate sarbannes/oxley. then to get the investment markets going again, elminate the capital gains tax, and the tax on businesses in this country.

but none of that will happen…instead the march towards a socialist state continues, and accelerates…

but its for our own good, they know best…

right4life on September 22, 2008 at 12:19 PM

Is Hank Paulson a secret Chinese tool? Looks more and more like it.

promachus on September 22, 2008 at 12:19 PM

oh yeah get rid of freddy and fannie too.

right4life on September 22, 2008 at 12:19 PM

I have a better alternative to this bailout plan.

Arrest each and every one of these corporate fat cats who knew their companies were going straight to hell in a handbasket and allowed them to go down the tubes anyway, while taking in nice hefty pensions and earnings for themselves.

Cease all their assets immediately, including homes, cars, furniture, bank accounts, stocks, etc, liquefy them, then place them back into the economy to ka eup for the huge losses suffered in the last few days.

Then try, convict and sentence each and every of these clowns in public trials so that everyone out there who is even thinking of also pulling a stunt like this will think twice.
And by sentence, I’m talking like 20+ years of hard time WITHOUT PAROLE!

Then fire the head of the SEC, as well as fire Charlie Rangel and Chris Dodd from their positions in Congress, as well as nail everyone else who saw this whole thing coming down the pike and didn’t so much as utter a frigging peep about it until everything hit the fan at once.

A lot of people got hurt this time because of a few greedy bastards. Now it’s time for payback!

pilamaye on September 22, 2008 at 12:20 PM

TexasJew on September 22, 2008 at 12:18 PM

He’s the chairman of the Senate banking committee. Maybe you should study the issue before you comment.

Vashta.Nerada on September 22, 2008 at 12:21 PM

IMO, Nouriel Roubini, NYU Professor of Economics, has had a good handle on this, and should be read if you want some clearer info on what’s going on.
JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:14 PM

A smart economist with a worth-reading blog. He’s been more right than wrong, though I suspect that he’ll still be predicting crisis when the markets finally turn the corner.

At least I hope, for the good of the country, Roubini isn’t ultimately right.

dedalus on September 22, 2008 at 12:22 PM

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:14 PM

+1.

Roubini offers a sobering world view. In short, put on your helmet.

moxie_neanderthal on September 22, 2008 at 12:22 PM

What, if anything, is being proposed to do away with the Community Reinvestment Act regulations requiring banks to extend credit and mortgages to people who can’t afford them under any reasonable free market business evaluation? If that underlying cause doesn’t get addressed, aren’t we going to be right back in the same situation in another 10-15 years?

Dudley Smith on September 22, 2008 at 12:23 PM

Arrest each and every one of these corporate fat cats who knew their companies were going straight to hell in a handbasket and allowed them to go down the tubes anyway, while taking in nice hefty pensions and earnings for themselves.

Cease all their assets immediately, including homes, cars, furniture, bank accounts, stocks, etc, liquefy them, then place them back into the economy to ka eup for the huge losses suffered in the last few days.

Then try, convict and sentence each and every of these clowns in public trials so that everyone out there who is even thinking of also pulling a stunt like this will think twice.
And by sentence, I’m talking like 20+ years of hard time WITHOUT PAROLE!

Channeling DUmmies and KOSsacks, are we?

As I have said elsewhere, I am also angry at what the CEOS have done, but to enact the above stuff gets government into a place in which it does not belong. I don’t have the answer, but I know that’s not it.

NoFanofLibs on September 22, 2008 at 12:23 PM

As I pointed out in the headline comments, taxpayers will pay for doing nothing too. Neither Paulon nor Bernanke wanted to do this; that’s why they waited so long. But we arrived at the point last week where doing nothing would cause the capital markets to evaporate and thereby tank the economy. An economic recession causes lower tax receipts, so the government will pay for doing nothing as well. Indeed inaction will probably have a higher price tag.

phronesis on September 22, 2008 at 12:23 PM

Dudley Smith on September 22, 2008 at 12:23 PM

Good point. Something must be done about the underlying conditions which caused this mess in the first place.

phronesis on September 22, 2008 at 12:24 PM

Newts’ take, makes some sense.

redshirt on September 22, 2008 at 12:25 PM

At least I hope, for the good of the country, Roubini isn’t ultimately right.

dedalus on September 22, 2008 at 12:22 PM

I’m with you on that. Only today, however, China called for an international financial system not US based.

I took that to mean, among other things, a challenge to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. I worry/wonder if this will be the outcome of this financial debacle.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:26 PM

Arrest each and every one of these corporate fat cats who knew their companies were going straight to hell in a handbasket and allowed them to go down the tubes anyway, while taking in nice hefty pensions and earnings for themselves.

pilamaye on September 22, 2008 at 12:20 PM

Not a bad idea to make them suffer. They cost a lot of people their jobs and retirement savings. However, someone like Dick Fuld didn’t know that his company was going to hell. He was too incompetent to comprehend the trouble it was in. He lost a fortune as did the mega-millionaires from Bear Stearns and AIG. Some deserve worse, but they did lose plenty.

dedalus on September 22, 2008 at 12:26 PM

Vashta.Nerada on September 22, 2008 at 12:19 PM

where do ya suppose Mitt would be most effective? As VP candidate on a losing ticket or serving on a financial advisory board tasked with oversight responsibilites on an issue directly affecting our economy?

a capella on September 22, 2008 at 12:27 PM

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:14 PM

Roubini is the Allahpundit of economists. He always assumes the worst possible outcome, so when things are really bad he looks amazingly prescient.

phronesis on September 22, 2008 at 12:28 PM

The smartest people in the world don’t know…are we even justified in forming an opinion on the matter?

ernesto on September 22, 2008 at 12:18 PM

Proof, please, that your assertion of them being the “smartest people in the world” is based on something more than hyperbolic rhetoric? And some names of who you believe to be a part of the “smartest people in the world who are going wtf” group, would be great.

Otherwise, I recommend breathing into a paper bag for a minute or so. And then go diversify a fraction of your investments (or savings) into something that is more stable than growth-driven — if you can, diversify internationally, as well (markets, currencies, etc). Cut the fat from your portfolio, rein in your discretionary/wasteful spending.

Don’t panic.

Harpazo on September 22, 2008 at 12:29 PM

phronesis on September 22, 2008 at 12:28 PM

Yeah, I do know his reputation. His pessimism matches my own, so I may be unduly swayed by those kinds of arguments.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:31 PM

ErikTheRed on September 22, 2008 at 12:17 PM

Buffet is not to be trusted. He is the guy who says the wealthy should pay more taxes. Of course, I don’t believe he’s sending the IRS any of his own accord.

genso on September 22, 2008 at 12:31 PM

where do ya suppose Mitt would be most effective? As VP candidate on a losing ticket or serving on a financial advisory board tasked with oversight responsibilites on an issue directly affecting our economy?

a capella on September 22, 2008 at 12:27 PM

He would indeed be great on the advisory board – I was just struck by how fast his name came up.

Vashta.Nerada on September 22, 2008 at 12:31 PM

The time to have opposed the bailouts was at the inception: Had the Americans’ government-sponsored agencies such as “Fannie Mae” and “Freddie Mac” not been made, they would not now be too big to fail. Had mortgage lenders had help resisting the political pressure to extend credit to “sub-prime” borrowers, these billions of dollars of risky mortgage-backed securities wouldn’t exist.

For one must also act pre-emptively in domestic affairs. The time for opposition was before the explosions began.

Kralizec on September 22, 2008 at 12:32 PM

You should oppose the bailout if you’re a survivalist, or a masochist. Otherwise, not.

RBMN on September 22, 2008 at 12:33 PM

You should oppose the bailout if you’re a survivalist, or a masochist. Otherwise, not.

RBMN on September 22, 2008 at 12:33 PM

you should oppose this if you don’t want the further socialization of america.

right4life on September 22, 2008 at 12:36 PM

Newts’ take, makes some sense.

redshirt on September 22, 2008 at 12:25 PM

Dang, that is some major common sense in a week when it is badly needed. The donks would fight the loss of capital gains tax tooth and nail.

a capella on September 22, 2008 at 12:36 PM

There’s a good back and forth on this going on at the Corner right now. The consensus is starting to emerge that “yeah it really sucks, but the alternative is so bad we have no choice, and we just have to concentrate on making sure we make the bailout as reasonable as possible.”

Dudley Smith on September 22, 2008 at 12:38 PM

You should oppose the bailout if you’re a survivalist, or a masochist. Otherwise, not.

RBMN on September 22, 2008 at 12:33 PM

You should support the bailout if you’re a socialist or want to be controlled by an all powerful government. Otherwise not.

Turnabout is fair play.

MB4 on September 22, 2008 at 12:39 PM

Dudley Smith on September 22, 2008 at 12:38 PM

I think that back and forth is perfectly displayed in the comment here that follows yours.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:42 PM

The smartest people in the world don’t know…are we even justified in forming an opinion on the matter?

ernesto on September 22, 2008 at 12:18 PM

LOL, ever met any of these people? They are just people, no smarter than the rest… just in a position of power.

Just because you have gained a powerfull position, it does NOT mean that you have a clue.

Romeo13 on September 22, 2008 at 12:43 PM

Newt does make sense. But the politics of the day won’t allow such common sense to prevail. I’m heavily invested in the market, but I’d rather see the DOW at 8000 and this credit crap cleaned up the free-market way than allow what is about to happen. We will be revisiting this again in a couple of years and, in fact, there is no guarantee that this plan will be very effective at all.

genso on September 22, 2008 at 12:43 PM

Thug Henry Paulson: Look, bud, I said ‘Your money or your life.’

Jack Benny Joe America: I’m thinking it over.

MB4 on September 22, 2008 at 12:44 PM

For months Roubini has been arguing that the true cost of the housing crisis will not be a mere $300 billion — the amount allowed for by the housing legislation sponsored by Representative Barney Frank and Senator Christopher Dodd — but something between a trillion and a trillion and a half dollars. But most important, in Roubini’s opinion, is to realize that the problem is deeper than the housing crisis. “Reckless people have deluded themselves that this was a subprime crisis,” he told me. “But we have problems with credit-card debt, student-loan debt, auto loans, commercial real estate loans, home-equity loans, corporate debt and loans that financed leveraged buyouts.” All of these forms of debt, he argues, suffer from some or all of the same traits that first surfaced in the housing market: shoddy underwriting, securitization, negligence on the part of the credit-rating agencies and lax government oversight. “We have a subprime financial system,” he said, “not a subprime mortgage market.”

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:45 PM

Roubini argues that most of the losses from this bad debt have yet to be written off, and the toll from bad commercial real estate loans alone may help send hundreds of local banks into the arms of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. “A good third of the regional banks won’t make it,” he predicted. In turn, these bailouts will add hundreds of billions of dollars to an already gargantuan federal debt, and someone, somewhere, is going to have to finance that debt, along with all the other debt accumulated by consumers and corporations. “Our biggest financiers are China, Russia and the gulf states,” Roubini noted. “These are rivals, not allies.”

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:45 PM

I thought this stunk from the get go. In 1929 Wall Street Laid an Egg. In 2008 Wall Street Screwed the Pooch. There must be consequeces for the bastards that destroyed our banking system. Where is the accountability in this plan? We must have oversight. I’ll take a depression over repression.

ronsfi on September 22, 2008 at 12:46 PM

This bill is right up there with the Gulf of Tonkin resolution and the Aviation and Transportation Security Act. Emergency psychology makes poor policy.

Valiant on September 22, 2008 at 12:46 PM

The United States, Roubini went on, will likely muddle through the crisis but will emerge from it a different nation, with a different place in the world. “Once you run current-account deficits, you depend on the kindness of strangers,” he said, pausing to let out a resigned sigh. “This might be the beginning of the end of the American empire.”

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:46 PM

“But we have problems with credit-card debt, student-loan debt, auto loans, commercial real estate loans, home-equity loans, corporate debt and loans that financed leveraged buyouts.” All of these forms of debt, he argues, suffer from some or all of the same traits that first surfaced in the housing market:JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:45 PM

On the bright side, I hope that my mailbox ceases to be stuffed each day with home-equity and credit card offers. I have already worn out one shredder.

Vashta.Nerada on September 22, 2008 at 12:48 PM

I wish Milton Friedman were still alive. I would love to hear what he would say about this.

Out of the many wise things that Friedman said, one was his discussion of the attitudes that people have towards spending money. When you are spending your own money on what you want, you will purchase exacty what you want at exactly the price you can afford. However when people (the government specifically) spend other people’s money on things other people want, they invariably will not get the best thing and it will not be at the best price (usually they will spend too much since they have no reason to economize.) Thus the free market – when allowed to act freely – will always be more efficient than the government.

That being said, isn’t that what were looking at here? We proposing a $700 billion bailout in which the decisions regarding how to spend that money will be made by other people for things in which they have no direct stake in the outcome.

Is there a free market solution to this problem? One that would not involve trusting in the wise and benevolence of single person – or a single committee?

PackerBronco on September 22, 2008 at 12:49 PM

Vashta.Nerada on September 22, 2008 at 12:48 PM

Smiling. Thank you :)

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:49 PM

The fight over the bailout is as big a threat as the US has ever faced.

Goldman Sachs through their boys Paulson and Geithner are trying to take control of our economy.

The scare tactics continue with today’s market action. I’m sure Cocaine Larry will be on the tube warning everyone that their savings are lost unless we give Goldman full control of the U. S. Treasury. The MSM will print idiotic notions like taxpayers might make money on this bailout.

This is nothing more than the appropriation that an occupying power would levy on a conquered nation.

Paulson’s statement reads like the German diktat presented to the French in 1940 or the surrender terms we Americans presented to the Japanese in 1945.

Not to sound melodramatic, but this our Gettysburg.

If we lose this battle, we lose all our economic rights also.

HalJordan on September 22, 2008 at 12:51 PM

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:46 PM

Great stuff. And, in Jiangxi, they are already looking for another currency. What do you think it will be? Euro…Pound…maybe even the Yuan.

genso on September 22, 2008 at 12:52 PM

Whether you support the plan or not, we have to do something to prevent the next Great Depression. Allowing the government to buy up all the bad loans probably is a reasonable course of action to stabilize the credit markets.

Previous commenters are right that you need to make sure the government is valuing the bad loans properly. Having been involved in distressed loan valuation in the past (on the commercial side), I can tell you it’s an art and not a science, and you can expect that you’ll have the government buying loans both above and below their “correct” valuation. The #1 thing I would want to watch out for is banks using flim-flam valuations to try to induce the government to overpay for the loans.

The other thing is, once the government buys these distressed loans, it can work with the borrowers to try and repay the money. If the government buys a $100,000 loan securing a $50,000 house for $50,000, it can “erase” half that debt and put the borrower on a repayment plan that might work. Critically, you want to keep that inventory of houses off the market until the market stabilizes. Right now, you have a HUGE inventory of existing and distressed homes, which is deflating values.

Rest assured, this is a total debacle, and I join the chorus here of people saying we need to bankrupt and imprison the corporate and other fatcats responsible for this fleecing. But I think we’ve got to do something, and this Paulson plan is probably reasonable, provided we build in plenty of transparency and oversight.

Outlander on September 22, 2008 at 12:53 PM

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:45 PM

To quote a famous philosopher, “The chickens are coming home to roost.”

a capella on September 22, 2008 at 12:53 PM

Not to sound melodramatic, but this our Gettysburg.

If we lose this battle, we lose all our economic rights also.

HalJordan on September 22, 2008 at 12:51 PM

What are you doing with your own savings?

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:53 PM

Is there a free market solution to this problem? One that would not involve trusting in the wise and benevolence of single person – or a single committee?

PackerBronco on September 22, 2008 at 12:49 PM

The problem right now is that there isn’t a liquid market for the assets that the financial institutions hold. If there was a functioning market, there wouldn’t be the need for Treasury to act.

The free market works great when there is a functioning markt.

dedalus on September 22, 2008 at 12:55 PM

PackerBronco on September 22, 2008 at 12:49 PM

Imagine a trillion dollars floating around Washington with no accountability. I can already hear the little piggies’ feet trampling up to the trough.

a capella on September 22, 2008 at 12:58 PM

To quote a famous philosopher, “The chickens are coming home to roost.”

a capella on September 22, 2008 at 12:53 PM

In the practical art of economics, you must be prepared to fight for your rights at any time in the future. In the impractical art of economics, you should have been doing that quite some time ago, and it’s probably already too late. You’re scroomed.

Murphy9 on September 22, 2008 at 12:58 PM

a capella on September 22, 2008 at 12:53 PM

Yes, but the sin is that it is now reaching people who lived within their means, foregoing the orgy of granite countertops and BMW’s. These good people are the only ones left to bail out those who partied for a decade or two–the looters. It can be no other way. But it’s a bitter pill.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:59 PM

You should support the bailout if you’re a socialist or want to be controlled by an all powerful government. Otherwise not.
MB4 on September 22, 2008 at 12:39 PM

Government interference in private markets (e.g. Fannie, Freddie, the Community Redevelopment Act, Sarbanes-Oxley) is, in no small measure, responsible for this boondoggle. We can allow the private sector to fix the problem by repealing CRA, SOX, and eliminating Freddie and Fannie, but you can’t take those four measures overnight or else the entire economy will collapse. Thus, you need this ugly hack of a bailout.

However, these allegations that the “Business Plan” of the 1930s (an attempted military coup by fascist businessmen) is coming back are beyond the pale. I’m sorry, but the CEO of Goldman Sachs is not going to stage a military coup and install Henry Paulson as “Commissar of the People’s Economy” and start marching political dissidents off to labor camps.

What we are doing is creating a giant “sponge” to soak up bad debt off balance sheets to free up the capital markets. That does not lead to a commie takeover of the world. Now let’s be responsible about the way we are talking about this, shall we?

Outlander on September 22, 2008 at 1:00 PM

What are you doing with your own savings?

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:53 PM

I have put all my savings into a little green ring and a green lantern.

HalJordan on September 22, 2008 at 1:01 PM

Outlander on September 22, 2008 at 12:53 PM

What business man…successful businessman…would give more money to the very people that have brought us to the brink of bankruptcy? Oh, I get it. We can trust them this time.

genso on September 22, 2008 at 1:03 PM

And, in Jiangxi, they are already looking for another currency. What do you think it will be? Euro…Pound…maybe even the Yuan.

genso on September 22, 2008 at 12:52 PM

I don’t know a strong currency of a free nation. That’s bad. Swiss francs are nice for some of your cash, as is gold. Both are easy and cheap to buy these days, and should be part of a conservative, diversified portfolio.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 1:03 PM

Imagine a trillion dollars floating around Washington with no accountability. I can already hear the little piggies’ feet trampling up to the trough.

That is my fear. Using money wisely involves a heathy fear of risk. Part of the reason we’re in this mess is the removal of risk from the financial equation since it was assumed that the government would back up the financial market. If those who are in charge of the money have no rear of risk, why should we assume that they will act prudently? Why should we not assume that human nature being what it is, the money will invariably become politicized. The irony is that the more people who have involved in oversight, the less each person becomes responsible for their actions and the more politicized the process will become.

PackerBronco on September 22, 2008 at 1:03 PM

What are you doing with your own savings?

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:53 PM

I’m buying while the prices are good – but I am buying companies that make things: CAT, JCI, PG, etc. Also keeping quite a bit in foreign markets for now.

Vashta.Nerada on September 22, 2008 at 1:05 PM

I don’t know a strong currency of a free nation. That’s bad. Swiss francs are nice for some of your cash, as is gold. Both are easy and cheap to buy these days, and should be part of a conservative, diversified portfolio.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 1:03 PM

Agreed. But the Swiss Franc is a boutique currency and could not drive the global economy. Why do you think we got off the gold standard?

genso on September 22, 2008 at 1:07 PM

Actually, having Goldman-Sachs – which was one of the few firms that acted aggressively to reduce its exposure to this mess – run this whole thing might be a distinct improvement over anyone in the government.

CK MacLeod on September 22, 2008 at 1:07 PM

PackerBronco on September 22, 2008 at 1:03 PM

Well, you are correct. At it’s heart, this is not a financial crisis, any more than we have an energy crisis. Both are created, by those we’ve chosen to govern us. It’s a crisis of leadership, and a crisis of our American society.

Both of these ridiculous situations, a lack of domestic energy, and a collapse of our debt ridden economic system, are our fault. We can’t fix anything without changing the guard. Don’t ask me where to find the new leadership.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 1:08 PM

I would also have a euro-denominated account…just in case….

right4life on September 22, 2008 at 1:08 PM

The first argument to make against this bailout is to ask who, exactly, gets to determine what a “bad debt” is. What criteria will be in place to ensure that financial institutions just don’t dump failed business lines and other grand follies into the taxpayers’ liability column?

Without clear definition of what gets to be dumped, this whole arrangement smacks of collusion between banks and government. In other words, can I incorporate myself as a business somehow and then dump my liabilities into this cesspool? What prevents crude oil speculators who now hold oil futures @ $150/bbl from dumping their liabilities? Do credit card companies get to dump their debt? If so, do you need to keep paying the bill? Who do you pay? Or, can I dump my personal debt too?

Is this only for bad mortgages? Can GM or American Airlines dump their pension plan debts? What about foreign investors (governments)?

The only discussion points we hear are 1) How much it’s going to cost, and 2) that it’s a good thing.

How was the figure of $700B arrived at? Did someone add up a bunch of numbers based on “bad debt” and provide the sum, or did someone just write down a big number?

If your mortgage is considered bad (by as yet some un-defined criteria) and sloughed off to the new RTC-ish agency, can the US Government sieze your tax refund to help pay down it’s liability? Can the Treasury Secretary evict you without review (the way the current plan is written, he could)? Will you be able to negotiate a fair market re-purchase of your own home (mortgage) with the government or is this reserved for Big $$$?

In other words, all we know for sure right now is that the deals are being made that will have enormous effect on all of us, and we are not privy to the details. “Just trust us” ain’t good enough.

I don’t like this deal one bit. Global impact be damned. How long do we have to keep pretending that everything will be alright, just give it time. The Piper is calling; he wants to be paid.

BobMbx on September 22, 2008 at 1:09 PM

I am very disturbed by the administration’s cavalier and condescending attitude in asking taxpayers to shrug off their right to a full description and explanation of the origin, cause and effect of the current problem and blindly sign off on a trillion dollar bailout plan that fails to either include or communicate specific objectives, targets, timelines, oversight and consequences.

Dana Perino, under question the other day as to who was at fault, said something to the effect that this was not a time to find fault but was a time to govern. And I thought, problem is, Dana, this is not most people’s idea of governing. You don’t blow people off when they’re being asked to pony up $700 billion to bail out a bunch of government and corporate crooks.

Of course, turns out Dana was facing foreclosure on her $650K townhouse. Lord, of all things. Has anyone heard from her since??

BigD on September 22, 2008 at 1:09 PM

Agreed. But the Swiss Franc is a boutique currency and could not drive the global economy. Why do you think we got off the gold standard?

genso on September 22, 2008 at 1:07 PM

Yes, you understood me correctly. We would be without a reserve currency, and the global economy would reflect that absence.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 1:09 PM

Maybe the White House put in a poison pill of its very own into this bill…. Think about it.

Seixon on September 22, 2008 at 1:10 PM

Actually, having Goldman-Sachs – which was one of the few firms that acted aggressively to reduce its exposure to this mess – run this whole thing might be a distinct improvement over anyone in the government.

CK MacLeod on September 22, 2008 at 1:07 PM

The reason we’re having this whole bailout thing is because Goldman-Sachs and MorganStanley were the next to fall. I think it had more to do with that than a greater concern for the overall economy.

genso on September 22, 2008 at 1:11 PM

Now let’s be responsible about the way we are talking about this, shall we?

Outlander on September 22, 2008 at 1:00 PM

Why don’t you try being responsible and quote all of my comment instead of taking it out of context? Huh? How about that? Do you think that maybe you could be responsible and do that in the future?

You should oppose the bailout if you’re a survivalist, or a masochist. Otherwise, not.

RBMN on September 22, 2008 at 12:33 PM

You should support the bailout if you’re a socialist or want to be controlled by an all powerful government. Otherwise not.

Turnabout is fair play.

MB4 on September 22, 2008 at 12:39 PM

MB4 on September 22, 2008 at 1:11 PM

I don’t know a strong currency of a free nation. That’s bad. Swiss francs are nice for some of your cash, as is gold. Both are easy and cheap to buy these days, and should be part of a conservative, diversified portfolio.

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 1:03 PM

I’ve heard some researchers predict that a number of Asian countries will have to strengthen their currencies in order to combat inflation. Dollar should get a little weaker and commodities a little stronger until the congressional plan has the confidence of the markets.

dedalus on September 22, 2008 at 1:12 PM

JiangxiDad on September 22, 2008 at 12:59 PM

From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs. Or something like that. Wash, rinse, repeat.

a capella on September 22, 2008 at 1:13 PM

Now let’s be responsible about the way we are talking about this, shall we?

Outlander on September 22, 2008 at 1:00 PM

BTW, you might also, in the future, stop talking about military coops, as I said nothing like that.

Just try to be responsible in the future if you can.

MB4 on September 22, 2008 at 1:15 PM

I’ve heard some researchers predict that a number of Asian countries will have to strengthen their currencies in order to combat inflation. Dollar should get a little weaker and commodities a little stronger until the congressional plan has the confidence of the markets.

dedalus on September 22, 2008 at 1:12 PM

The Japanese Yen can’t be strengthened with their economy in the tank. Not so with the Chinese Yuan.

genso on September 22, 2008 at 1:15 PM

coops coups

MB4 on September 22, 2008 at 1:17 PM

The reason we’re having this whole bailout thing is because Goldman-Sachs and MorganStanley were the next to fall. I think it had more to do with that than a greater concern for the overall economy.

genso on September 22, 2008 at 1:11 PM

Perhaps the single biggest event was the Reserve Primary Fund “breaking the buck”. Bernanke and Paulson knew that there were going to be many more funds to do that, since the commercial paper market had started to fail. That is how the problem would have jumped dramatically from Wall Street to Main Street.

GS and MS would have survived, though would have merged with commercial banks or taken on a huge investment from a a foreign investor.

dedalus on September 22, 2008 at 1:18 PM

NOW is the time to call your CongressCritters:

Call Capitol Hill Switchboard TOLL FREE:

1-877 851-6437

1-800 828-0498

1-800 614-2803

1-866 340-9281

1-866 338-1015

1-866 220-0044

fred5678 on September 22, 2008 at 1:18 PM

dedalus on September 22, 2008 at 1:18 PM

No question that you are correct. The trigger was that GS and MS were being targeted. But you can not discount the effect of the relationships between Wall Street and DC. Or, you can at your own peril.

genso on September 22, 2008 at 1:22 PM

BigD on September 22, 2008 at 1:09 PM

Can’t treat an illness until it is diagnosed. We tend to be flying right over that part, aren’t we? Or more accurately, no one wants to be held accountable for creating the mess, thus it will be repeated.

a capella on September 22, 2008 at 1:22 PM

I’m too mad to comment, other than to say Pence is a rock star. Unfortunately, I never lived in his district.

rightwingprof on September 22, 2008 at 1:22 PM

Problem here is that BOTH major political partys were complicit in creating this mess.

They let us down folks, but you will not see a single ONE step up and say sorry… they’ll be too busy trying to stay in power.

Romeo13 on September 22, 2008 at 1:25 PM

Can’t treat an illness until it is diagnosed. We tend to be flying right over that part, aren’t we?

a capella on September 22, 2008 at 1:22 PM

Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and then applying the wrong remedies.
- Groucho

MB4 on September 22, 2008 at 1:27 PM

Problem here is that BOTH major political partys were complicit in creating this mess.

They let us down folks, but you will not see a single ONE step up and say sorry… they’ll be too busy trying to stay in power.

Romeo13 on September 22, 2008 at 1:25 PM

And this is another reason why the bailout should be resisted. All the pols can hide behind this and never be held accountable. How many do you think would be ferreted out if the economy was allowed to correct itself naturally?

genso on September 22, 2008 at 1:29 PM

An excerpt from the draft bill (emphasis mine):

For purposes of this section, the following definitions shall apply:

(1) Mortgage-Related Assets.–The term “mortgage-related assets” means residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before September 17, 2008.

What isn’t “related” to a mortgage-backed security?

BobMbx on September 22, 2008 at 1:29 PM

Problem here is that BOTH major political partys were complicit in creating this mess.

They let us down folks, but you will not see a single ONE step up and say sorry… they’ll be too busy trying to stay in power.

Romeo13 on September 22, 2008 at 1:25 PM

First thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers politicians
- Shakespeare

MB4 on September 22, 2008 at 1:30 PM

Hmmm…. thinkin on this a bit…

Why THIS new bailout?

Fed already took over Fannie and Freddie… THEY could buy up these loans… and they already HAVE oversite in both houses.

Heck, could even then use Fed Guarantees like I have with the VHA to help homeowners get better rates. Seems it would cost a LOT less money, and the infrastructure for the program is already pretty much in place.

Just use Fannie and Freddie as the Holding Company.

Romeo13 on September 22, 2008 at 1:33 PM

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