Gallup: Obama gains another point, leads by six now
posted at 2:07 pm on September 20, 2008 by Allahpundit
That’s four straight days of gains for the Lamb and fully 10 days since McCain picked up so much as a point on him. Obama’s bounce after the convention left him up eight; we may well see that duplicated by Friday, when the first debate — focusing on the economy, do note [Update: Maybe not.] — rolls around. Current pessimism meter reading: Stable at four, down from six last week, indicating elevated levels of despair and worries of a landslide but buoyed by the fact that both Rasmussen and Hotline have The One up by a single thin point (his first lead in Rasmussen since September 10).
Whom should we blame? The St. Petersburg Times offers a scapegoat.
Five weeks ago, the St. Petersburg Times convened a group of Tampa Bay voters who were undecided about the presidential election. Their strong distrust of Barack Obama suggested it was a group ripe for John McCain to win over.
Not anymore. The group has swung dramatically, if unenthusiastically, toward Democrat Obama. Most of them this week cited the same reason: Sarah Palin…
“I’m truly offended by Palin,” said Republican Philinia Lehr, 37, of Largo, a full-time mother with a nursing degree who voted for George Bush in 2004. Like Palin, she has five children and she doesn’t buy that the Alaska governor can adequately balance her family and the vice presidency.
“You’re somebody’s mom and what are you going to do, say, ‘Excuse me, country, hold on?’ … She’s preaching that she’s this mom of the year and taking that poor little baby all over everywhere. And, you know, what she’s doing to her 17-year-old daughter is just appalling.” Lehr said she’s bothered by the way Palin’s pregnant daughter has been brought into the national spotlight.
Of the 11 undecided voters participating in the discussion one recent evening at the Times — four Republicans, five Democrats, and two registered to no party — only two Republican men applauded the selection of Palin.
Nobody had finalized a choice, but seven of the panelists said that McCain’s running mate selection had made them more likely to vote for Obama, and in several cases much more likely.
Exit question: How much should this very important Florida focus group bother us? Exit answer: Not much.
Blowback
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Palin will be out there and strong. McCain Palin will do well in the debates and you will see the polls swing McCain again.
It is an uphill battle when you have the majority of the media against you. In the end I trust the American voters will know who is truly qualified.
Jamson64 on September 20, 2008 at 2:12 PM
If Palin has suffered some damage it’s the campaigns fault not hers. The campaign played the victim card one too many times.
johnt on September 20, 2008 at 2:12 PM
I don’t think it is fair to blame Palin. After all she seemed to give McCain the bump. I think it is the economy. The news this week has been about markets and it always seems to be that when the attention is on the economy Democrats do better.
But… things are settling down now and the polls could still go the other way. It seems there is a yo yo thing going on here.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Ah, I see the pollsters managed to find yet another group of “lifelong Republicans”.
Purple Fury on September 20, 2008 at 2:13 PM
McCain needs to show just how many flip-flops BO has had, & how many gaffes Plugs has made.
jgapinoy on September 20, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Here come the inevitable “Gallup is a hack poll” complaints.
Look, McCain stuck his fundamental foot in his mouth and is paying the price. We’ve got 45 days to go and he’d better get it together. And soon.
csdeven on September 20, 2008 at 2:14 PM
I do get a kick out of the overplaying of the victim card in regards to the lipstick on a pig comment.
However if OBAMA did not realize how it was going to appear he is truly not that intelligent.
Jamson64 on September 20, 2008 at 2:14 PM
I’m starting to think that Allah’s pessimism meter and the actual news are like bond prices & yields. They move in opposite directions.
Purple Fury on September 20, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Bad economic news is good news for democrats. Add that to the fact that McCain and Palin are playing democrat lite on the stump, and this is the result.
Vashta.Nerada on September 20, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Did they change this? I thought the first debate was on foreign policy?
Moxie on September 20, 2008 at 2:14 PM
And btw, I am a woman and I do not believe for one minute that conservative women are “offended” by Palin having a career outside the home. That is stupid.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Yeah, some people are approaching Truther levels when it comes to dismissing news they don’t like.
Allahpundit on September 20, 2008 at 2:15 PM
People have to realize,if Obama wins, you better hold on to your wallet…there is no other way to look at this election, I guess naotional securty, also. Not voting for someone because the VP candidate has five kids???? People are just not getting it!
Static21 on September 20, 2008 at 2:15 PM
The economic news, preceded by McCain’s whining about lipstick on a pig–these are what hurt him. Palin is an asset.
jgapinoy on September 20, 2008 at 2:15 PM
A point here, a point there. It doesn’t deserve any mention until it changes by more than the margin of error in any given polling month.
tx2654 on September 20, 2008 at 2:15 PM
This isn’t journalism. Let’s just stop with the notion, shall we?
this is an old gig and playing the same line-up every night is tiresome.
Editor on September 20, 2008 at 2:16 PM
Rasmussen has it Barry up a point in the tracking. Also, in his write up of the South Carolina poll (McCain 51, Barry 46) Rasmussen says:
SouthernGent on September 20, 2008 at 2:16 PM
If these “undecided” voters are switching because of Sarah, then they weren’t “undecided”. What we are seeing is the MSM in full suppport Obama mode after they got surprised by the popularity of Sarah Palin. The left is now in full panic mode and trying their best to cover Obama’s *ss.
The voters won’t be fooled and regardless of what the polls say, McCain and Palin will win by a substantial margin. IMHO
mhgoldwing on September 20, 2008 at 2:17 PM
csdeven:
I don’t think Gallup is just some hick poll, but then again I do not believe that many change their opinions that quickly either. Up and down, up and down. Round and round. People are steadier than that. These polls seem to measure public opinion more than voting habits.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Do note: Poll numbers, and prissy reactions to them, aside, the topic for the Friday debate is foreign policy, not economics, according to multiple sources.
Don’t know where the confusion started. I was under the same misapprehension myself until I read William Kristol’s piece today.
Here’s one site confirming Kristol that came up on a quick Google:
http://www.youdecide2008.com/2008/08/21/official-2008-obama-mccain-presidential-debate-schedule/
CK MacLeod on September 20, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Pay attention, people!
The election is being stolen, and your response is to make smart comments and go for academic, inside-baseball explanations.
Osama Obama’s legions are subverting the law, committing voter fraud en masse and have no fear of pushing the most scurrilous lies and accusations through their tame media outlets.
If we don’t/can’t stop that, he wins.
MrScribbler on September 20, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Yeah, because Palin’s the one who did it to her, not the media. Nice little focus group you’ve got there, guys.
Seixon on September 20, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Here goes the blood pressure…When has Palin said she’s mom of the year? What SHE is doing to Bristol…WHAT ABOUT WHAT THE LEFT HAS DONE TO HER???? For Christ’s sakes. Offended by Palin…what the hell is this woman talking about?
“Republican” Philina Lehr is a MORON who shouldn’t be allowed to vote.
changer1701 on September 20, 2008 at 2:18 PM
LOL how does this square with this article from AP
These polls are junk. My opinion, as I mentioned this earlier in the week, is, more dems are going to vote for McCain than are republicans going to vote for Obama. I cant see Obama pulling in many GOP crossovers. Overall, I think McCain will win with about 53% of the vote.
titus_pullo on September 20, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Time for more celebrity ads! That will surely turn the tide!
e-pirate on September 20, 2008 at 2:19 PM
hick=hack. That is about four times I have done something like that today.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:19 PM
Guys, trust me, Women are not bailing on Sarah. I hear nothing but good things about Sarah from women.
I really believe it is the MSM for Obama + the economy with Wall Street and unemployment up a little.
Sapwolf on September 20, 2008 at 2:20 PM
I love this site, but can we save Truther comparisons for actual Truthers? It’s completely distasteful. Questioning polls might be grasping at straws, but it sure as heck isn’t on the level of believing pollsters murdered voters to get their desired outcome.
Spirit of 1776 on September 20, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Screw the blame game. We know what the problems are…
media bias, deranged lefties, slanted polls, leap year, global warming, spiked Kool Aid…
Who cares!
There is only one question- what are YOU doing to fight this?
- Write letters/ make calls the media, Rush, Hannity, etc. can take care of themselves. They don’t need our calls right now. Call the other bastards.
- Click here and sign up
- Get some poster board and go to Obama rallies. Get inside and start asking him the questions that we’ve all been fighting over for months
- Recruit your friends and have them help you to do the same things.
- Go find camera crews at Democratic events and start getting the message and questions out there.
- Write op ed pieces and letter to the editor of your local papers.
Damiano on September 20, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Why in the world would the economic news of the past week benefit Obama so much? The Dems are as responsible as anyone for it, plus they do their best to talk it down whenever they can.
changer1701 on September 20, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Ditto.
Editor on September 20, 2008 at 2:24 PM
So far the polling is quite typical of the past two elections. Candidates get their post-convention bounces which then subside. Between the conventions and the debates the Dem tends to lead in the polls.
As I recall, Kerry had a decent polling lead over Bush going into the debates. In fact some pundits were talking landslide in 2004.
The debates will be key…
Ace ODale on September 20, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Well, I’m sticking with Rasmussen since his polls gives us greater information on daily tracking and trends.
And, IIRC, his was the closest in the last election.
Meanwhile, the latest Zogby poll has Eisenhower up by 12 points over Millard Fillmore.
Hmm, not sure about that one there John.
SteveMG on September 20, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Are there really going to be one poll after another until November 4th? Really??
I’m sick of the election. I’m sick of all the BS politicians sling.
November can’t come soon enough.
mjk on September 20, 2008 at 2:25 PM
I totally agree and I might add the fact that McCain’s first response to the financial crisis was’t stelar. Sarah Palin might be a factor too. Her presence on ABC was
decent but not good enough and some people think that she is not ready yet to replace John McCain in case something happends to him. Don’t forget Hillary. She came and spoke against Palin. So, there are reasons for Obama’s bounce. What I’d like to see how the plls look 1 week from today, before the first presidential debate and if the O’s bounce holds.
clemycali on September 20, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Way to go Scribbler!
McCain need our help!
Damiano on September 20, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Spirit:
Yes, that is true isnt’t?
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:26 PM
Abandon ship! All is lost, someone order me a bottle of Hope and Change!
El_Terrible on September 20, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Certainly true, but it’s also certainly true that I wasn’t offering a moral comparison and you know it. All I mean is that Truthers can’t assimilate data that contradicts their theory. They’re so wedded to it that what they want to believe dictates what they do believe. Nothing more to the analogy than that.
Allahpundit on September 20, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Debates are going to be HUGE!!!!
Static21 on September 20, 2008 at 2:27 PM
I’ll third the criticism of Truther analogy.
That was way over the top there, AP.
SteveMG on September 20, 2008 at 2:27 PM
told you guys. once the palin pick got the identity politics crowd all excited….people started seeing what McCain really did…picked somebody not ready to be POTUS
GAME OVER, MAN!! GAME OVER!!
Roger Waters on September 20, 2008 at 2:28 PM
When bad things happen, it’s good for Obama’s numbers because it’s fuel for his “America Sucks” thesis.
He’s up by a little, but it will change unless the bad news keeps rolling in.
forest on September 20, 2008 at 2:28 PM
BTW – on the confusion over the planned debate topic, I think a debate focusing on the economy would be better timing for McCain, not Obama – unless something bigger than a single car bomb blows up between now and next Friday. A foreign policy focus gets in the way of developing McCain’s counterattack, and puts him in the position of showing off his expertise at a time when the nation is focused elsewhere. On the other hand, both candidates may end up debating foreign policy more in an “off the cuff” mode than otherwise, creating a somewhat higher likelihood of gaffes – in between attempts to steer the discourse back to the economy.
One major link between economics and foreign policy is, of course, oil drilling.
CK MacLeod on September 20, 2008 at 2:28 PM
AP:
re the Truther analogy and ignoring “reality.”
But there are a number of other reputable pollsters (Rasumussen for example) that show that the race is much closer than this Gallup poll.
No one is saying that steel can’t melt; some are simply saying that other creditable pollsters have the race much tighter.
SteveMG on September 20, 2008 at 2:29 PM
More electioneering from Gallup I see. We will wait for the big poll in November.
Maxx on September 20, 2008 at 2:29 PM
I live in Indiana and some people say this state is in play. I have a hard time believing it, but if it is true, it is because the unemployment rate is 6.7%.
But then again, if Clinton could not beat Dole, I have a hard time believing Obama can beat McCain.
But this is not about Palin, if anything she has helped McCain. This is about worry over the economy and the fear that Republicans don’t feel the pain of average people struggling to pay bills. The recent meltdown may not have been the fault of Republicans, but so far it does not help. It could be that will change however.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:30 PM
The first debate was going to focus on the economy, but at the result of the McCain campaign back in August it was changed to foreign policy and national security. The debate on the economy will be the last one one. With hindsight, not a very good decision by the campaign. The best situation would have been to have economy as the first debate and finish strong on national security.
johnt on September 20, 2008 at 2:30 PM
True. However, the difference is that in the case those being branded as Troowfers actually have some basis in fact.
I don’t usually take the time to discount polls, but we know the polls are wrong. All. The. Time. If they weren’t there wouldn’t be MOE.
Editor on September 20, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Considering how you prefer despair over optimism, you should be happy as a pig rolling around in a mud slop. I’m not sure why you chose to write this crap instead of reporting and analyzing the attacks on McCain/Palin so we have the facts and arguments to fight back.
Blake on September 20, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Roger Waters on September 20, 2008 at 2:28 PM
W/O the Palin pick, we would be further behind. W/ all the financial bad news, we would be down big w/ another VP pick…guaranteed…
Static21 on September 20, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Ha! Good counter-analogy. I agree, some people are saying that (which is why I mentioned the Rasmussen and Hotline polls), but I think there’s a certain contingent — on both sides, of course — that simply tunes out bad vibes.
Allahpundit on September 20, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Some, perhaps. Not all. Still, given the proclivities of the media and the infiltration of “focus groups” by rabid Obamabites lately, I take it all with a pillar of salt.
ManlyRash on September 20, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Well, don’t worry AllahP, all.
After Big Brother Obama is thugged into office by hook or crook, we’ll soon meet again in the place where there is no darkness.
And we will love Big Brother.
Good Lt on September 20, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Roger:
You are such a clever guy. I plan to wait for the election before I decide if the game is over.
BTW, you are a sexist little snob, did you know that?
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:33 PM
look, i don’t wanna hear another word about a generic poll — i wanna see the big 12 battleground state polls — EVs are all that matters now!
Buckaroo on September 20, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Allah
Pull up the polls from 2000, 2004 and 1988 and see what they said at the same time in history.
Kerry had a huge lead in the polls right about now
Rush has said if the one does not have at least a ten point lead in the polls by the final week then he is toast.
kangjie on September 20, 2008 at 2:33 PM
I haven’t had my 15 minutes of Warholian fame yet. I think I’ll make a lot of noise about being a Concerned Christian Conservative w/ doubts about Palin so I can be written up in major periodicals and politcal blogs. Yay for me!!!1!
innominatus on September 20, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Uh, voting for Bush does not a Republican make. Gallup is a not a poll know to be shall we say- accurate. Now Rassmussen, that I can believe, but I read the Rassmussen article and the info stopped being retrieved on Thursday. McCain started really hitting back on Friday, and then THE ONE gave that horrific speech in Miami on Friday. I think some of this might change next week and then there are the debates and this whole Iran thing.
Questions- Palin beats Biden in a make believe POTUS race. Only McCain and Biden are thought to be prepared to be POTUS. McCain is the most trusted candidate in large numbers over THE ONE. Why then is McCain not up by 10 points? How is this still a tight race? What are these people smoking? How can anywhere between 40-48% of each state going for THE MANCHILD? Just wondering.
freeus on September 20, 2008 at 2:34 PM
The fact that stupid people like Lehr vote Republican is one reason our party gets such a bad rap. Why doesn’t she blame the Democrats for pulling both her kids into the spotlight?
Speedwagon82 on September 20, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Allahpundit:
How could we tune out anything? Unless we live in a cave there is no way to do that.
I just think that if we hang on every poll then all is lost.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Not me. I know the sun is going to explode next week (it’s been curiously “silent” for a long time) and envelope the earth.
Other then that, hey, how about those Dodgers?
SteveMG on September 20, 2008 at 2:35 PM
freeus:
They want Change, a new beginning. The thing McCain has to do is make them believe that Obama is the same old, same old.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Steve:
I myself am waiting for the asteroid to strike and to man what that other nasty big rock did to the dinos.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:38 PM
It is one thing to opine in a focus group, where every facial tic is being analyzed, and where you and the rest of the group are all evaluating one another.
It is another thing to close the curtain behind you in the voting booth.
The point is, I put zero credibility in what a focus group says.
Having said that, Gallup worries me to the point of sleeplessness.
__________
RJGatorEsq. on September 20, 2008 at 2:38 PM
I feel the need to turn on college football, and sleep in the recliner.
rockhauler on September 20, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Given what is at stake, I can understand their decision to do so.
“Our doubts are traitors / And make us lose the good we oft might win / By fearing to attempt.” — Shakespeare, Measure for Measure
ManlyRash on September 20, 2008 at 2:38 PM
News? Fabricated, heavily biased, agenda driven, full court press, heavily leaning, Obama by any means, lie, cheat and steal polls are now news?
………………….. who would of thought? I guess I’m finally straightened out, thanks Allah.
Seven Percent Solution on September 20, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Let’s see now… how long ago did McCain start coming out for amnesty again (excuse me, “immigration reform”)? And when did the poll slide start…? Hmmm….
fabrexe on September 20, 2008 at 2:40 PM
McCain’s slide in the polls isn’t a statistical blip – I think it’s the result of an oddly defensive week on his part. His campaign didn’t do that well, and they’ve only just started pushing back against the media’s onslaught on Palin. They’ve allowed the media and the Democrats too much time to define her on their rather unflattering terms.
Slublog on September 20, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Gallup itself tracks a weekly aggregate result by region, and that makes for a very interesting snapshot of the last month of this campaign. The latest results, comparing period of August 11-17 to September 8-14:
McCain
East – up 4% (37%, 41%)
Midwest – up 5% (41%, 46%)
South – up 3% (51%, 54%)
West – up 4% (43%, 47%)
McCain rising with all tides, my friends. Numbers for the Lamb of South Central:
B. Hussein Obama
East – down 1% (50%, 49%)
Midwest – no change (46%, 46%)
South – down 1% (40%, 39%)
West – down 2% (49%, 47%)
Nice trend.
T J Green on September 20, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Come on. Don’t say “and you know it”, I’ve never challenged you dishonestly, or at least not intentionally so. I do think it’s distasteful, but I take your point.
Spirit of 1776 on September 20, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Test
Trent1289 on September 20, 2008 at 2:41 PM
I don’t think this has much at all to do with Palin. Whether it’s fair or not, the bank implosions are going to hurt McCain because a Republican has been, and still is President. The fact that there’s been a Democrat congress for 2 years won’t register. The whole push to get home loans for unqualified borrowers got going under Clinton, but that won’t matter either. Obama’s close associations with Fannie and Freddie guys might help a little.
I’m still optimistic because I think the Gallup poll spots Obama about 4 points, so it’s still close and hopefully this is as bad as it will get. Obama should be way ahead. any good news between now and November should be enough to sink that bitter and gloomy Democrat ticket.
forest on September 20, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Yes another ad with more from Paris
That will certainly from an Obama win spare us
And yet another with Brittney
That will surely bring Obmama down on his last knee
Tav on September 20, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Get to know Obama’s mentor and how he dedicated his book to the first community orgainizer, Lucifer.
GOOGLE: SAUL ALINSKY BARRACK OBAMA LUCIFER
volsense on September 20, 2008 at 2:43 PM
About Indiana, it is worth noting that 6.7% is the highest unemployment rate since 1987. But Bush beat Dukakis by a wide margin 1988. I just think that a lot of people are nervous now, and that nervousness could make them go either way.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:43 PM
The question is whether public anger over the Wall St meltdown, mortgage crisis, and bailouts has already peaked or whether it’s going to increase, or at least stay at a very high level, through Election Day.
If the latter, then there’s a potential tidal wave that one or the other candidate can surf, at very high risk however, into office. If so, McCain may need to heighten and focus his attacks – continuing to go after big names from the Democratic leadership, along with big Republican names (including Cox and Bush, sorry to say – alright stop snickering, Beavis). Otherwise, the fear factor may lead people to dream of Mommy-Statists tucking them into bed, and telling them comforting lies, during potentially calamitous times.
CK MacLeod on September 20, 2008 at 2:45 PM
The media has tilted this election by tearing into Palin nonstop. I would attribute at least 2 points to that. Another 2-3 points from the economy and an overall bad week for McCain.
Let’s just wait until the debates though.
Also, Ayers, Wright, ACORN, and Annenberg will all make their way back into the story before November.
WisCon on September 20, 2008 at 2:45 PM
Allah: Man up, dude. Read this; it may help.
ahem on September 20, 2008 at 2:45 PM
It is called cognitive dissonance I think. That sounds better than comparing McCain supporters to Rosie ODonnel and Charlie Sheen.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:47 PM
I’m not concerned.
McCain was down pre-Palin, and the Republicans have barely even started to go negative.
If I see a 10+ point spread, then I’ll have concern. The MSM has been smearing McCain-Palin non-stop. The Republicans will pull this out in the end. Trust.
lansing quaker on September 20, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Drudge Ad:
Paid for by the “A Woman Vice President Committee” and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
PO Box 984, Willows, CA 95988
Who’s willing to bet that this “committee” is collecting donations for themselves, and/or Obama from suckers?
maverick muse on September 20, 2008 at 2:48 PM
A good explanation on why Gallup has Obama with a large lead:
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/19/how-liberal-trolls-are-working-to-get-mccain-elected-president.php
BJ on September 20, 2008 at 2:49 PM
Finishing touch: Bush sanctioning Obama’s infringement of the Logan Act.
maverick muse on September 20, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Everything will be decided in the debates.
People do not trust the media, but when they see the candidates one-on-one in the debates then they will judge. Live. Real. Unfiltered.
(Hillary looked bad in the day-to-day media, but great in the debates. That’s why she was winning again in the end and Obama refused to debate her anymore.)
Which ever candidate screws up in the debates, loses.
albill on September 20, 2008 at 2:51 PM
CK:
Yes, I agree. I think that it remains to be seen how this will play out. But considering how the market rebounded Friday and the apparent cooperation of both parties to working out a deal to end the current crises, it might be that will pass as an issue to some extent.
The price tag is huge in numbers, but if one compares it to the Great Depression it is not such a big deal. I think a lot of people were saying something like WHEW! by Friday evening.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:51 PM
My guess is that most of the public – or a plurality – simply believes that Republicans run Washington. They don’t know that Democrats control Congress and, even if many do, they don’t care.
They see the President and only the President running things.
He’s a Republican and when things go bad Republicans – any of them – get the blame.
McCain performed shakily this week as well. That Obama blipped up 5 points is, to me, remarkable in that it wasn’t more.
With the stock market apparently stabilizing (for now), let’s see how this shakes out by the middle-end of next week.
My guess is that it’ll drop to the margin of error.
As Al Davis might say, debates, baby, just win the debates.
SteveMG on September 20, 2008 at 2:52 PM
Yeah, that is what you will find when you talk to women who are republicans.
I just saw a Google writeup by the same idiot from the AP (another liberal MSMer in the tank for Obama no doubt) that said Obama will try and recapture the momentum during the debates.
MSM sucks no matter what side you are on. If you read blogs from both sides you will see EVERYONE complains about the MSM.
Monkei on September 20, 2008 at 2:52 PM
McCain and Palin got to speak to the voters more or less unfiltered during Convention week. Since then, the media have been hacking away, hell-bent on delivering their customary 5-15 percent advantage to the Democrats.
I believe the poll’s probably correct. I also know why.
DrSteve on September 20, 2008 at 2:53 PM
Polls are like poles you fish with. The catch sometimes depends on the bait you use. Other polls show different numbers using different bait. In 2004 there were polls saying Kerry was going to win even on election day. The people are are this stupid. They will realize they could actually lose their country with this pack of democrats. Too much to lose.
volsense on September 20, 2008 at 2:53 PM
If the markets continue to rally next week as they did Thursday and Friday I think peoples fears will diminish somewhat.
johnt on September 20, 2008 at 2:54 PM
They finally figured out how to tweak their “models” to get the results they wanted.
TheBigOldDog on September 20, 2008 at 2:54 PM
maverick:
I don’t think Bush sanctioned anything. Crocker just told the truth. That does not mean that Obama is any less of a tool.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 2:55 PM
I think in this limited sense, it is an apt comparison.
Whenever a report comes out from the government or another agency that contradicts the carefully (I’m using the term loosely) laid out objectives and theories of the conspiracy group, they’re automatically dismissed as shills, biased, irrelevant, etc.
Don’t be discouraged – just get out and vote anyway. But don’t automatically dismiss the polls as right-out out of hand.
Bush had a one point lead on Kerry (RCP average) just prior to election day. I remember, becaseu I looked at the poll averages going into election day, and it was Bush +1.0 or something close to that. There were two or three polls that Kerry was up in, but that was it. Most had Bush ahead.
The same thing is shaping up here. Every major poll has BO up. That isn’t “shill polling,” no matter how shady some of their sampling may seem. That’s a trend. It isn’t the end – it’s just the current movement out there, so reporteth the pollsters.
McCain is certainly not hitting back hard enough or fast enough this week. Perhaps the financial turmoil has gotten Washington to shut the hell up for five minutes and listen to what a disaster they’ve actually caused. Maybe he’s keeping his powder dry until October? I dunno.
Good Lt on September 20, 2008 at 2:56 PM
huh?
You can continue to rationalize it in this way if you like, but people are upset on BOTH sides about the economy, what has made people move away from McCain was his idiotic statements while Rome burned. And his resulting blaming Obama who just 2 weeks ago did not have enough experience to be President but enough to be the reason that wall street tanked. Rich.
Monkei on September 20, 2008 at 2:56 PM
Dirty Harry says:
“States tend to follow national, which pretty much proves the race is tighter than tight. Were this truly a six point national race, Wisconsin and Minnesota wouldn’t be anywhere near up for grabs, not to mention Pennsylvania and Michigan.”
Mr_Magoo on September 20, 2008 at 2:56 PM
Based on the Wizbang post cited earlier, I’m not sure how much credence to place in polls. After all, other than at Hot Air and other conservative sources, I never heard that McCain was EVER ahead of Obama in the MSM.
BTW, instead of using the term “going negative” couldn’t we just call it “telling the truth with intensity”?
tgibson1962 on September 20, 2008 at 2:57 PM
When you say “they’ve actually caused” … I take it you mean all the blowhard and all the politicians in Washington. You know, the ones we send back 97 percent of the time? GOP and DEMS.
Greed always wins out.
Monkei on September 20, 2008 at 2:58 PM
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