Gallup: Obama gains another point, leads by six now
posted at 2:07 pm on September 20, 2008 by Allahpundit
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That’s four straight days of gains for the Lamb and fully 10 days since McCain picked up so much as a point on him. Obama’s bounce after the convention left him up eight; we may well see that duplicated by Friday, when the first debate — focusing on the economy, do note [Update: Maybe not.] — rolls around. Current pessimism meter reading: Stable at four, down from six last week, indicating elevated levels of despair and worries of a landslide but buoyed by the fact that both Rasmussen and Hotline have The One up by a single thin point (his first lead in Rasmussen since September 10).
Whom should we blame? The St. Petersburg Times offers a scapegoat.
Five weeks ago, the St. Petersburg Times convened a group of Tampa Bay voters who were undecided about the presidential election. Their strong distrust of Barack Obama suggested it was a group ripe for John McCain to win over.
Not anymore. The group has swung dramatically, if unenthusiastically, toward Democrat Obama. Most of them this week cited the same reason: Sarah Palin…
“I’m truly offended by Palin,” said Republican Philinia Lehr, 37, of Largo, a full-time mother with a nursing degree who voted for George Bush in 2004. Like Palin, she has five children and she doesn’t buy that the Alaska governor can adequately balance her family and the vice presidency.
“You’re somebody’s mom and what are you going to do, say, ‘Excuse me, country, hold on?’ … She’s preaching that she’s this mom of the year and taking that poor little baby all over everywhere. And, you know, what she’s doing to her 17-year-old daughter is just appalling.” Lehr said she’s bothered by the way Palin’s pregnant daughter has been brought into the national spotlight.
Of the 11 undecided voters participating in the discussion one recent evening at the Times — four Republicans, five Democrats, and two registered to no party — only two Republican men applauded the selection of Palin.
Nobody had finalized a choice, but seven of the panelists said that McCain’s running mate selection had made them more likely to vote for Obama, and in several cases much more likely.
Exit question: How much should this very important Florida focus group bother us? Exit answer: Not much.
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americanthinker.com
A good article on the so called, “missing story.”
JellyToast on September 20, 2008 at 4:31 PM
Thanks for that article.
Ever notice that politicians like to brag about their “conservative credentials” during an election?
Ever notice when a politician is considered “liberal”, the standard reply begins with, “we need to get away from these labels”?
Saltysam on September 20, 2008 at 4:45 PM
It’s pretty sad actually. I don’t mean to stereotype or mischaracterize, but to climb the ladder with a strong husband by their side is an insult to those who mistressesed or slept their way up. Which post Oprah-Barbara interview, I think must be more common then I first thought.
Spirit of 1776 on September 20, 2008 at 4:48 PM
Cmon guys…we really wonder?
ernesto on September 20, 2008 at 4:53 PM
Spirit of 1776 on September 20, 2008 at 4:48 PM
For sad commentary, you sure have a great sense of humor!
The MSM cameras are steering well away from Todd “Call me Todd” Palin. A big unspoken truth is, Todd Palin is an 800 lb. gorilla sitting in the Democrat War Room. (IMHO)
Saltysam on September 20, 2008 at 4:56 PM
Yeah. I wouldn’t use the SP Times as a source for anything. Some of the radio talk people refer to it as the Pravda West. For good reason. It’s a left wing rag (also known as the primary paper) in Pinellas County, which usually goes blue. Also it’s losing much of its reader base too. Take anything there with a grain of salt.
Wanna get a bomb made? Go to USF. Wanna read DNC talking points? Pick up the St Pete Times.
Maybe McCain should do something bold and demand that the first debate cover economic issues instead of Foreign Policy? That’s topic 1 on everyone’s mind.
lorien1973 on September 20, 2008 at 5:03 PM
No sense going to the polls in November. Gallop told me “we lose.” That’s it.
(McCain wins 49 out 57 states.)
saved on September 20, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Who on earth are they polling? Harlem? Ras shows a one point lead. One wonders how they can be so far apart? Finally(after 2 long years)I was polled. I was delighted to shout McCain and Palin into their shell like ear. I probably went a little overboard.
jeanie on September 20, 2008 at 5:12 PM
And take away our nukes, protective missiles and institute the brown shirts here in country! He wants to completely annihilate our military in the first 100 days, so saith THE ONE. McCain people, get on this!
freeus on September 20, 2008 at 5:15 PM
I just have a problem with these numbers. How can McCain jump ahead then drop, while Obama blunders every day, Republican donations are pouring in, the base is energized and Palin is so popular,, then we see Obama’s numbers go up. I think their is pressure here to suppress something,,, to maybe try to energize Obama a little.
JellyToast on September 20, 2008 at 5:19 PM
Trends are a good thing… except for Michelle Obama’s
kidsoverpriced hospital job.T J Green on September 20, 2008 at 5:21 PM
So Gallup and DailyKos polls resemble each other, while Ras. and Hotline do on the other end.
americans are brain dead idiots if they vote for Obama
jp on September 20, 2008 at 5:25 PM
Well, looks like the same old pollsters back out trying to depress the Rep. vote.
I’d guess that Gallup will The One up by ten to twelve post debate.
OSUBuciz1 on September 20, 2008 at 5:27 PM
“I’m truly offended by Palin,” said Republican Philinia Lehr, 37, of Largo, a full-time mother with a nursing degree who voted for George Bush in 2004. Like Palin, she has five children and she doesn’t buy that the Alaska governor can adequately balance her family and the vice presidency.
I call BS on this.. I highly doubt shes a republican, or that she voted Bush in 04.. Every single republican woman i’ve talked to in Missouri is more than willing to vote, (and will), for McCain this time around..
Republican women arent that freaking stupid, period…
stlpatriot on September 20, 2008 at 5:28 PM
why is it that ever GD poll is 37-40% dem, and 28-31% rep?
do they ever run a freaking poll thats even, 33, 33, 33 ?
stlpatriot on September 20, 2008 at 5:31 PM
I had the same reaction. No self-respecting Republican would be more concerned with Palin’s ability to juggle her career and family than Obama’s socialist ideology, association with the likes of Ayers, Wright, Rezko, et al, etc.
Disturb the Universe on September 20, 2008 at 5:34 PM
It’s waaaaaaaaaay to early to try to predict the outcome of this race considering the lousy economic situation. Normally that would favor the dems, but this is a weird year.
As I’ve been saying for a year, we can “Gulp” if Obama actually wins the damn election – no point in staining our drawers if polls show wim leading, which they probably more or less will up until November 4.
fiatboomer on September 20, 2008 at 5:42 PM
IF McCain does not do well in the debate (i.e., stop saying “my friends”, “bipartisanship”, “I’ll work with anyone…”, and “my service to this country”, THEN we will lose the election and enter four years of darkness (no pun intended, especially since Hussein has an identity crisis).
madmonkphotog on September 20, 2008 at 5:43 PM
No, I really wasn’t.
First, you assume a lot about me, which makes an ass of you and me. I haven’t any “friends” who are in the media, sorry. “You’re”? Please.
Again, I have no friends in the media. “Responsible thing”? I beg to differ, but a civil conversation on that topic is a bridge too far for this site. Fallacies (e.g. name calling, two wrongs make a right, relevance, etc.) have taken the place of reason around here.
Again, I have no friends in the media. Also, you put a question mark, but what’s the question? Whether the media kept the Edwards affair out of the limelight? They did, yes, for the most part. That it was Edwards they were protecting? Well, it sure wasn’t for the sake of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s privacy.
You’re absolutely right. I also didn’t mention the price of milk, “the air-speed velocity of an unladen swallow”, or the Bernoulli Principle.
I’d call it illegal, but I fail to see the relevance of this.
…?
Send_Me on September 20, 2008 at 5:46 PM
Well, here’s one anecdote (and note that anecdote != data):
First of all, I’m a lucky gal — I live in “Elephant House!” (hubby, me, and 2 friends of ours who are our housemates, all registered Republican though not all equally conservative, all voting for McCain/Palin though only one of us voted for McCain in the primary). The other night, one of my housemates took a long phone call from his sister in another state. Afterwards, he told me that she had been bemoaning the fact that although she didn’t want to vote for Obama, she felt she could no longer vote for McCain based on his choice of Palin as VP.
So even if the women quoted in the abovementioned SP Times article are all shills, there are are at least some actual voters who feel the same way, at least at present. Our Sarah has 45 days to change their minds…
Mary in LA on September 20, 2008 at 5:49 PM
Wizbang has a good analysis of the Gallup poll here: http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/19/how-liberal-trolls-are-working-to-get-mccain-elected-president.php
I do not necessarily buy the troll analysis but it appears that Obama has lost ground with just about every group he needs to win and the major difference in the polling at Gallup has been changes in the Rep/Dem ratio. If that is the case, McCain may actually have a lead right now that is not being captured. If that holds true, the downside is that it sets up the “Obama lost due to racism” argument when he loses rather than poor polling.
The Opinionator on September 20, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Well, I can think of two reasons:
1. There are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in the U.S. voting population, so if they’re trying for a representative sampling, they’re going to wind up with slightly more Dems in their sample.
OR
2. They’re all liberal shills.
I mostly believe 1, sometimes 2 if I’m feeling cynical.
Mary in LA on September 20, 2008 at 5:54 PM
Disturb the Universe on September 20, 2008 at 5:34 PM
right,
sounds like someone making the old “she needs to be at home with her family, old school, 1950’s sterotype” argument.. you know, the one the left seems to think we believe for some oddfreakingball reason…
stlpatriot on September 20, 2008 at 5:56 PM
I am guessing that this has already been asked, but how much of this is a Bradley/Wilder effect? If there is such an effect, shouldn’t we expect polls from here on out to show him in the lead? Also, should we also expect that if he is anything less than 10 point ahead in polls, he will probably end up losing?
Dilophos on September 20, 2008 at 5:57 PM
Mary in LA on September 20, 2008 at 5:54 PM
good answer, call me cynical :)
stlpatriot on September 20, 2008 at 5:59 PM
she felt she could no longer vote for McCain based on his choice of Palin as VP.
So even if the women quoted in the abovementioned SP Times article are all shills, there are are at least some actual voters who feel the same way, at least at present. Our Sarah has 45 days to change their minds…
Mary in LA on September 20, 2008 at 5:49 PM
did she say why? i just don’t get it…
stlpatriot on September 20, 2008 at 6:05 PM
Intresting. Did you ask her why? Because I bet she would have given an honest answer to you.
clemycali on September 20, 2008 at 6:15 PM
There’s another group that doesn’t receive appropriate weighting; college students with cell phones.
I have opportunity to speak with many, due to their association with by children and grand children.
They are very enthusiastic verbally for Obama and if you mention McCain, there may be a chuckle, grin, double take or even an eeuuU…!
Now we must use our influence to motivate them to make there feet do what their minds and hearts believe.
Vote early and vote often…!
J_Gocht on September 20, 2008 at 6:16 PM
Okay people, stop panicking.
If Obama wins, we’ll tough it out, we have to. No sense whining about it now and no sense whining about it if it happens. We’re better than that. Trust me, if Obama is elected, once people see how inexperienced this guy is his approval ratings will make Bush look like he can walk on water.
So what if Obama’s ahead? We haven’t hit the debates. Unless there’ a teleprompter set up for this he’s actually coming in at a disadvatage giving what we know of him.
Now to address the McCain “working with both sides” schtick. First off, detatch yourself from party affiliation for a moment and pretend you are a no-brained “moderate”, this election comes down to the guy who says he wants to put the country first and fix what’s broken vs. the guy who running the party line who blames the other side and offers no solutions. There’s a subtle amount of brilliance in that. What he’s actually doing is providing something for us that Obama can’t do for his party. Accountability. McCain has actually said we bear some of the responsibilty for the econmic slump we hit, and that is true. Obama just points fingers at one party. At least, McCain’s pointing at both parties. Personally, if we can’t admit when we screw up we have no places as leaders. You do have to admit our guys do have a little responsibility in what has happened with a lot of things. We’ve all complained about it at one point or another.
If we can actually demostrate (not saying most of us haven’t already) that we are the party that wants to put “Country First” we can make support of Obama look shallow in comparison. I wasn’t happy with McCain at first either. I still think we had better options, but he’s still a hell of alot better than the alternative.
Pcoop on September 20, 2008 at 6:19 PM
Pcoop on September 20, 2008 at 6:19 PM
Good points. And to paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, it’s no time to get all wobbly.
Disturb the Universe on September 20, 2008 at 6:31 PM
Send_Me:
Palin announced that her daughter was pregnant because of vicious and stupid rumors on the left. It is that simple. And she did not drag her into anything, she simply stated a fact. It is amazing how prudish and intolerant Democrats have become of late.
As for the socalled Lehr person she might be a code pinker for all I know.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 7:05 PM
ernesto:
That statement by McCain proves nothing. After all, he did come up with legislation to help deal with the problem whereas all Obama did was stick out his hand for the check from the supporters of outfits like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Trying to blame this on McCain is ridiculous. It reminds me of the guy who killed his parents and then threw himself on the mercy of the court on the grounds that he was an orphan.
Terrye on September 20, 2008 at 7:08 PM
Sorry, but I’m not buying that 11% of the population decided to vote for Obama instead of McCain in the past two weeks.
No way this country votes this black man into office. A black man, yes, but not this one.
orlandocajun on September 20, 2008 at 7:16 PM
Go over to Wizbang and read two items by DJ Drummond. An in-depth, but then a correction. Read the 2 together and then ignore Gallop for the rest of the election cycle! It’s just messin’ with your head.
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/19/how-liberal-trolls-are-working-to-get-mccain-elected-president.php
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/20/errata.php
hestrold on September 20, 2008 at 7:39 PM
Oh and excuse me but Gallop is REGISTERED VOTERS and not LIKELY VOTERS. Rasmussen, which shows a statistical dead even is likely voters.
hestrold on September 20, 2008 at 7:56 PM
Gallup has had a reputation since the 2000 election of slanting to the Dem side. And I agree Wizbang has a really thorough analysis of the whole Gallup polling method. Worth reposting the link.
http://wizbangblog.com/
Deanna on September 20, 2008 at 7:58 PM
Then why is Philinia even thinking about pulling the lever or whatever they now do in Florida for Obama? After all, it was his campaign — his cronies — who first made the claim that Trip was really Gov. Palin’s grand-son and pushed that story to the point of near-reality. If the McCain campaign hadn’t broken the news about the real grand-child quickly, the Democrats would have nattered on about Trip until the correct inappropriate time and an inappropriate place, and we would all be reading the lurid details on the pages of the National Enquirer about how Gov. Palin tried to keep it a secret and failed.
And all the voters would be asking, “If she tried to keep that a secret and failed, what other unknown “October Surprises” did she have in her vaults?”
unclesmrgol on September 20, 2008 at 11:10 PM
His crowds are smaller, he’s running low of “on hand cash”, he’s uh,uh,um more,he’s talking thug politics (get in there faces) who are they polling? Acorn?
christene on September 21, 2008 at 1:09 AM
IIRC, it was that she felt McCain was (I’m paraphrasing here — I wasn’t privy to the original conversation) “pandering to women by picking someone with so little experience just because she’s a woman.”
Perhaps there’s some hope there, though, if Palin wipes the floor with Biden in the debate.
Mary in LA on September 21, 2008 at 2:34 AM
So, because she views Palin as a token VP pick she’s considering voting for a guy to fill the actual office of the Presidency with much less executive experience who, could be argued, was nominated by many millions as a token?
That’s quite a rich. Really.
Editor on September 21, 2008 at 3:04 AM
As an Independent, apparently I’m not the only one in a quandary by McCain picking someone unqualified to be VP/Pres if needed and does not help McCain with his weakness–the economy, which is a HUGE ISSUE THIS ELECTION.
(BTW…I am pro-life and not a homo, not that it matters!)
Excerpt:
http://www.vindy.com/news/2008/sep/21/dear-john-your-pick-of-palin-is-unlike-you/
Dear John: Your pick of Palin is unlike you
Sunday, September 21, 2008
“But to this non-aligned voter, here’s the most telling comparison between the Democratic and Republican tickets: Biden can bolster Obama’s knowledge of the pressing issues of the day; Palin can’t help McCain in any substantive way. Her role on the ticket is ideological.
McCain has said that the economy is not his strong suit. His vice presidential running mate certainly can’t help him there.
Given that admitted shortcoming, why didn’t McCain select Romney, the former governor of a major state and a highly successful businessman? Because Romney is a Mormon and many right-wingers in the Republican Party, especially the Bible thumpers, view Mormonism as a cult, rather than a Christian religion.
Why not Ridge, who has vast Washington and state government experience? Because he is pro-choice on the issue of abortion, even though he personally is opposed.
Right-wing threat
McCain’s selection of Palin was a genuflection before the evangelicals, many of whom had threatened to stay home election day because they weren’t sold on his conservative credentials. With Palin on the ticket, the three Gs — God, Guns and Gays — are in play. And, she is stridently opposed to abortion.
As Wall Street burns, the Dobsons of the world hold prayer sessions to change the evil ways of homosexuals. These are the people hailing Palin’s presence on the Republican ticket.
Dear John: You put political expediency before principle — and this non-aligned voter in a quandary.”
Shelby on September 21, 2008 at 12:46 PM
Well, I wasn’t in on the conversation, so I don’t know what arguments were used, but if someone wants to make a decision based on a feeling, there isn’t much that a reasoned argument can do. (And that’s why Democrat pols win elections…)
Mary in LA on September 21, 2008 at 12:56 PM
BTW, I am not in any way claiming that the lady in question is unintelligent — in fact, I’m certain that she is very intelligent. But as Samuel Johnson said (paraphrasing here), “it’s useless to reason a man out of something he wasn’t reasoned into.”
Mary in LA on September 21, 2008 at 12:59 PM
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