Gallup: Obama gains another point, leads McCain by five; Update: McCain gains, within one in Hotline poll
posted at 1:49 pm on September 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
Fourth day in a row that The One has gained, leaving him one point shy of his all-time high. If the CW’s correct and this is mostly a byproduct of the financial meltdown, then the market surge today on news of the bailout could reverse the trend next week. If it’s not correct and this is a more general swing back towards Obama, then Maverick had better punctuate every answer at the debates with, “Have I mentioned I’m a war hero?”
Even the battlegrounds look bad per the new Marist poll, although scan the internals and you’ll see Palin’s net favorables are better than recent polls would indicate. She’s no lower than +15 in any of the three states, and in Ohio she’s +22 — the widest margin of any of the four candidates on either ticket. Exit question: Second look at Palinmania?
Update: All’s not lost yet. Maverick trailed by four in yesterday’s Hotline poll and now he’s back within one, on the same day that worries about the economy have hit an all-time high. How to explain it? Hmmm:
More anti-Obama Fannie ads, please. Good news for Palin too, thanks no doubt to the Hannity interview — she’s now back ahead of McCain and Biden in net favorables and just a point behind The One.
Blowback
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I have to stop watching these numbers for the weekend and calm down.
Hening on September 19, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Hook me up to the HotAir pessimism drip. I want to get all “Woe is me.”
[Rolls eyes.]
McCain is going to win. Watch. He’ll easily take Obama in the debates. And Palin is debating a buffoon.
Stay positive.
capitalist piglet on September 19, 2008 at 2:28 PM
A couple of reasons come to mind.
First, the person over the phone knows who you are but you don’t know who they are. They generally ask very personal questions about you, including financial information and your past voting behavior. Obama and his supporters are in full-fledged “win at all costs” mode. (Just look at the comments from O!’s supporters about Palin’s email getting hacked.) O! backers have sent letters to McCain donors promising to go after them and try to destroy their reputations. Why would anyone trust that the person on the other end of the phone wasn’t a rabid O! supporter who might use the information gleaned against them? Some people probably start responding to pollsters and then lose their nerve part-way through, so they answer with what they think are safe answers to avoid reprisals.
The second, bigger factor is that because undecided voters go into the voting booth weighing the candidates’ positions on many issues, character matters. Perhaps they are social liberals who are afraid of terrorism. They might prefer Obama on the former and McCain on the latter. How does that voter decide for whom they’ll vote? I think undecideds vote based on the characters of the candidates as well as some gut feeling about how they personally will be affected if one wins vs the other.
If you’re a middle of the road voter who is from an ethnic background that is not considered to be “under-served” (white or Asian, for example), how comfortable would you be voting for a guy who constantly accuses his political opponents of racism? What kind of character does that guy have? Would you want to work with that person? If not, why would you want them to be president?
Obama’s actions are all to familiar. We see them in the workplace all the time. Voters will recognize it for what it is because they deal with it in their daily lives. That’s why McCain and Palin need to stay above the racist and sexist arguments. Reassure the electorate that they don’t see everything through an “ism” filter. Leave the electorate to make the comparison.
Y-not on September 19, 2008 at 2:28 PM
So am I supposed to hide under the bed or not?
Bishop on sept 19,2008 at 2:19PM.
Bishop:Depends,I recommend a King size bed,that way,you,
and your guns and gold should fit nicely!
If you have one of this fancy race car style beds,
and for some inexplicable reason it is a bus bed,
whatever you do,do not,throw yourself under the
bus bed!!!haha.———————:)
canopfor on September 19, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Somebody obsessed with polls, on a political site, six weeks before election time? Surely you jest.
flenser on September 19, 2008 at 2:29 PM
In all my years as a registered voter. I have never received or participated in a Gallup, Rasmussen, or any other poll either by phone or mail. Nor do I know any of our family or friends who have. This election is not decided by Polls although the media would like you to believe it is.
Egfrow on September 19, 2008 at 2:30 PM
The debatable question is whether we’re worse off with Obama or McCain.
flenser on September 19, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Umm.. I’m not a troll. I’m just incredibly angry @ the fact that I’m going to have to look @ the Messiah for four to eight years and will probably have to pay extra taxes. Since the Republican party is pretty decimated, I don’t really see room for a “comeback” anytime soon. Perhaps, in four to eight years, a RINO weenie similar David Cameron in the UK will come back.. Yep I want someone like that in charge of the Republican party. : eyes roll
Illinidiva on September 19, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Like I said earlier, he is losing a point a day.
With the economy all messed up, at least we can rest assured knowing that Sarah Palin was the point guard on her high school’s girls basketball team.
GAME OVER, MAN!! GAME OVER!!!
Roger Waters on September 19, 2008 at 2:31 PM
It’ll be decided by at least one poll.
lorien1973 on September 19, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Allah, just got a bottle of 45 yr old cognac, should I pour you one, or two, or…?
Tom
marinetbryant on September 19, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Isn’t it ironic? After spending 1/2 a billion and having all the MSM backing him “O” Dumby’s on;y a couple points ahead??
How many gallons of gas could a 1/2 a billion dollars buy?
Talk about obsene profits? He raises 1/2 a billion to look for another job. And he is still on our payroll.
Rick007 on September 19, 2008 at 2:33 PM
These polls are bogus to me. Look at Kerry’s poll numbers four years ago. Need I say more?
jencab on September 19, 2008 at 2:34 PM
I beleive in the bradley effect, but your defense makes some questionable assertions:
Citation Needed, sir.
Trent1289 on September 19, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Uh, the people that do this aren’t going to admit to it. That’s why they’re lying in the first place: Because they want people to think they’re voting for the black guy.
amerpundit on September 19, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Roger Waters on September 19, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Odd, I don’t recall you saying “GAME OVER” when Obabo’s numbers were falling.
Palin is more than just a point guard, then again you know that.
Bishop on September 19, 2008 at 2:35 PM
I think the Bradley effect is going to be small if any. Bradley ran what nearly 15 years ago? And racial bias gets smaller every year.
I read one article that said there was a huge gap in who said they were going to vote for Obama if it was a live questioner vs. a machine asking. That article estimated a 5-10% difference. Especially among Democrats.
But another article at Newsmax today reminds us that the Democrats have increased their voters by 2,000,000 or so since 2004. And with margins as close as this looks that could make much more difference than the Bradley effect.
petunia on September 19, 2008 at 2:35 PM
All you dummycrats check this out.
http://massdiscussion.blogspot.com/2008/08/one-of-obamas-mentors-is-just-sick.html
Nice friends huh?
Rick007 on September 19, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Really? That’s debatable to you?
capitalist piglet on September 19, 2008 at 2:36 PM
VERY good day for McCain thus far:
1. Three (3) crushingly, devastating ads; AND
2. This morning’s WaPO editorial
a. Praising McCain for calling attention to the grave risks being posed by Fannie/Freddie’s ongoing highly questionable business practices (back in 2005)
b. Praising McCain for introducing new legislation to properly regulate these run-away, ticking time-bombs (back in 2005) ; and
c. Oh yeah, Pretty much calling Obama a fu**ing liar
alwyr on September 19, 2008 at 12:03 PM
alwyr on September 19, 2008 at 2:36 PM
If Obama’s numbers aren’t higher than McCain’s now, how else would Daily Kos be able to whine about vote fraud when they lose?
Speedwagon82 on September 19, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Get off the Gallup-poll watch. Gallup sucks
Watch Rasmussen if you must get a poll fix.
Godzilla on September 19, 2008 at 2:36 PM
A political junkie and blogger obsessed over polls less than two months before an election? Never heard of it.
amerpundit on September 19, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Watching daily polls remind me of the internet bubble days when everyone watched CNBC all day long and cheered as their soon-to-be-near-valueless stocks inched up and up.
Kerry was up on W supposedly ON THE DAY of the election. Obama is an illusion that will fade on November 4.
Sugar Land on September 19, 2008 at 2:37 PM
The RCP average has Oby up 2 over McCain. This averaging of all the national polls was spot on during the primaries this year and on the 2004 election. But it’s not the margins that matter, it’s the direction that matters – whoever was on top close to the election stayed there to win.
Polls this far out in a tight race won’t matter too much, but keep an eye the RCPA during the final 30 days.
trailboss on September 19, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Gallup changes like the wind.
lodge on September 19, 2008 at 2:38 PM
True, but there were possible signs in the primaries even this year. Obama overperformed in polls in Pennsylvania & New Hampshire, among others.
Dems have always held an edge. They have a few problems: 1) There’s a sizeable chunk of conservative Dems voting for McCain, 2) There’s a chunk of PUMA voters who are staying home, 3) The new voters were most-likely predominately young ones. They’re notoriously unreliable even when excited about a candidate.
amerpundit on September 19, 2008 at 2:40 PM
No need to get worked up…Obama will not win.
Even if he were 20 points ahead, there would still be nothing to worry about.
Relax.
Dorvillian on September 19, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Even if McCain miraculously does well in the debates, the polls will just be back to where they are now after a few days. Our only hope is that the 5% of Democrats are just lying to the polltakers and will show that on Election Day.
Speedwagon82 on September 19, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Actually we saw in the primaries that Obama polled 3-5 points better than he did in the actual vote. So in his case its not unfair to say that we must substract a minimum 3% of any of his numbers.
It depends on where those new voters are. If they are mainly in states like California, New York,Massachutes they are not going to matter too much. We really don’t know the spread of these new voters on state by state basis.
clemycali on September 19, 2008 at 2:42 PM
why is Gallup polling “Adults” now instead of “Registered” or “Likely” voters?
jp on September 19, 2008 at 2:42 PM
No, no relaxing. It’s time to find a hole and climb into it, shaking and sniveling, crying out to God, “Why? WHY?”
Bishop on September 19, 2008 at 2:43 PM
Illinidiva,
You told us all two things that make your pessimism understandable – your handle, which would indicate that you either live in Illinois, have a relationship with the U of Illinois, or both; and you are 26 years old.
Do you spend most of your time with contemporaries? If so, I’m sure you hear all Obama, all the time. Especially in Obama’s home state. I’m older than you and don’t spend as much time with young people, so it’s possible I get a wider range of opinions about Obama than you might. People I talk to might like him, but they are generally pretty nervous about letting him run the country. We’re quickly coming to the time when the theoretical “wouldn’t it be cool to have Obama” runs headlong into the “oh crap, we can’t elect this guy right now” reality.
Long and short of it – don’t worry so much. People are wiser than you might think based on the sample you see.
And that goes double for Allahpundit.
Mr. D on September 19, 2008 at 2:45 PM
We’re going to lose. The media will completely destroy Sarah Palin and distort McCain’s message while propping up Obama, and there are too many ignorant bigots in this country who will believe whatever the New York Times tells them.
This is the beginning of the end. I didn’t want to live in a time when I would witness the death of this nation while terrorist groups finally prevail over us, but I fear that time has already come.
This is truly a sad day.
Lincoln on September 19, 2008 at 2:45 PM
I think McCain has a good chance. Especially if he can get Pennsyvannia on his side. But I think McCain is a horrible debater.
And we can expect Obama will only get soft balls.
But even when McCain clearly lost the debates he still won the elections held right after the debates so maybe what those not watching as closely see is different from what I see.
petunia on September 19, 2008 at 2:46 PM
nm, they are doing RV/adults
jp on September 19, 2008 at 2:49 PM
Perspective on Gallup polls:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2086028/posts
powerpro on September 19, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Even if McCain wins, you’ll still have to pay higher taxes as a result of today’s Government bailout.
jim m on September 19, 2008 at 2:52 PM
This seems like a big deal when the figure is tossed out there in black and white. But, if you look at the number (2 Mil) as a national calculus its far less daunting. First of all, where do most of those numbers come from? Well, the Obama campaign spent a ton of money in places like Georgia, North Carolina, Mississippi and Texas to register new Democrats. Obama will not win any of those states. None. How many new voters are there for Obama in Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvannia, etc? Not as big numbers actually as the Southern states, especially Texas. I think in the long run this will be a net wash.
One point to add, newly registered voters aren’t nearly as likely to get to the polls on election day as those who’ve voted cycle after cycle.
JonPrichard on September 19, 2008 at 2:53 PM
I think it’ll be a modified version of the Bradley effect. It’s not that the majority of people won’t vote for him because he’s black — Clarence Thomas is black and most of us here would gladly vote for him for a high office if he were running for one. It’s that Obama is a person of color who uses his race as a club to accuse others of racism.
By coming out with a campaign ad in which he accuses conservatives of racism, continually referring to his own appearance in speeches, and using his inner circle of surrogates to people who don’t support him of racism, Obama has foolishly lost the ability to claim that he is not race-baiting.
If he was going to use this tactic, he should have left it to the 527′s and his buddies in Hollywood and the media.
Dolt.
Y-not on September 19, 2008 at 2:53 PM
One important thing that must be realized is that PUMAs are not being factored into the samples. There are millions of PUMAs backing McCain.
To explain their effect using hypothetical numbers. Assume a demographic of 60% Democrat and 40% Republican. If 100 people were to be sampled, the sample should consist of 60 democrats and 40 republicans, in order to get a fair reading on the electorate. However, for THIS election cycle, because of PUMAs, the demographic is actually closer to parity. It’s as millions of democrats have disappeared, and in their place millionos of republicans have poofed into existence. Assuming parity (just to keep the numbers simple), the sample should poll 50 democrats and 50 republicans. However, THIS is not being done. Consequently, McCain is actually doing better than ALL of the polls indicate.
I’ll repeat this message every time a clusterfucked bullship Gallup poll result makes its appearance here.
If you must watch polls, watch Rasmussen. And keep in mind that even Rasmussen IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE PUMA EFFECT.
Godzilla on September 19, 2008 at 2:54 PM
I read in NC, Obama has registered 10 times more ‘new voters’ than McCain has. but its like 100k to 10k or so, not giong to sway NC. in a swing state though?
jp on September 19, 2008 at 2:55 PM
WTF? Take a seriously large chill pill dude with a single malt scotch chaser. And take your thumb out of your mouth.
JonPrichard on September 19, 2008 at 2:56 PM
I suspect the poll results are skewed toward Obama. I’ve found myself embarrassed to give honest answers to a couple of polls. “Do you tend to vote Republican?” Translation: “Do you hate poor people? Are you a racist? Do you want to punish women with babies?”
jazz_piano on September 19, 2008 at 2:57 PM
Go away liberal troll. You’re not fooling anyone.
Hell, why even bother holding an election? As you say, it’s already over.
Idiot.
fossten on September 19, 2008 at 2:57 PM
Bradley effect, all undecided will go for McCain. The One is still tied in PA, that means he’s losing.
Debates will put the fork in “The One”
Cheer up, Steve is in charge!!
Kempermanx on September 19, 2008 at 2:59 PM
Well, criticize it if you’d like. Today, unveils
McCain Economic Doctrine
Meanwhile, in the Land of Hopenchange…
Obama say’s that he’ll get back to us on that whole economic thing
Damiano on September 19, 2008 at 2:59 PM
Sarah Palin has improved considerably. On her first day on the campaign trail she was reading the text on the podium following it with her finger. Now she is hitting the substance of the issues without hesitation. Her Hannity interview was a step up from the Gibson one. The hits on the economy have hurt McCain but now the Dow is up on the week. This is going to calm a lot of people down. I think that as she hits her stride that she will impress voters more.
scrubjay on September 19, 2008 at 3:01 PM
HUH…?
The biggest new govmint RTC in the history of the world certainly won’t be anything like “central planning”
No sirree Bob…er, Lance.
J_Gocht on September 19, 2008 at 3:02 PM
RCP avg has BO up less than 2
The Marist poll has a big margin of error.
Blogger needs to take a chill pill.
Karl on September 19, 2008 at 3:02 PM
Forget the polls.
In 2000 Al Gore had served 8 years as VP and yet he lost to George W Bush, a
poordismal public speaker whom many would believe is an idiot.In 2004, John (I have a Plan)Kerry, ex-Rambo because he got as many medals as the number of months in combat, lost to George Bush in the midst of a badly run and unpopular war.
Now in 2008, a black man who has spent the bulk of his time as a Senator running for the office of the President, who has no executive experience, who voted 130 times ‘present’ while serving as a state senator and is now running against a genuine war hero who has a pretty sidekick, is supposed to win in white America?
Birdseye on September 19, 2008 at 3:03 PM
That’s the point. Look, a large stash of the newly registered voters did so during the primaries in states that Obama won in the primaries but will not even come close in the general election. Places like Idaho. Then too he registered a lot of new California voters but lost by a large margin to Hillary. The point is, most of the 2 million number (like 80%) is spread out over states that Obama will win anyway or has no chance of winning. In competitive states the registration and party affiliation numbers are not very different from 2004 except in Virginia and Colorado and Pennsylvania. The new Pennsylvania numbers lean McCain’s way.
Also, what was the margin of votes between W and Kerry in 2004? 3 million?
JonPrichard on September 19, 2008 at 3:03 PM
Funnily enough, I got polled for the first time ever yesterday. But I had to tell the truth and say that I can’t vote here, being a resident (not citizen). Very frustrating, especially this election year.
And remember, this is no time to go wobbly! Most of the poll sliding is just post-convention blues, the real campaigning is happening now.
Fortunata on September 19, 2008 at 3:07 PM
Y’all need to see the electorial college map at pollster.com……Mav went ahead of BO today. Quite a few states were added to the toss up category. Elections are won at this level, not on nationwide popularity polls like the one generated by Gallup.
David in ATL on September 19, 2008 at 3:07 PM
I was called some time ago by ABC. And I told them that being a permanent resident I can’t vote. They never called again.
clemycali on September 19, 2008 at 3:11 PM
AP is a genius. His job is to keep us up to date with the latest news etc. BUT, his genius isn’t in his ability to do that. His real talent is exposing our partisan hypocrisies without making it obvious.
IE: We like pollsters when they fit our meme, but the next day or week we disparage the same pollster as a hack when their polling doesn’t benefit our guy.
All hail to Allah!
csdeven on September 19, 2008 at 3:11 PM
“Funnily enough, I got polled for the first time ever yesterday. But I had to tell the truth and say that I can’t vote here, being a resident (not citizen). Very frustrating, especially this election year.
And remember, this is no time to go wobbly! Most of the poll sliding is just post-convention blues, the real campaigning is happening now.
Fortunata on September 19, 2008 at 3:07 PM”
Sounds like my son’s prom date!
marklmail on September 19, 2008 at 3:11 PM
Forget the polls. They’re for hand-wringers and fair-weather friends. Keep your eyes on the prize and work hard. We knew it wouldn’t be easy.
rrpjr on September 19, 2008 at 3:12 PM
When does the 2nd amendment get injected into this campaign? Or will it? Is Oslime-a a loser on that issue?
csdeven on September 19, 2008 at 3:15 PM
To think that just a few short weeks ago we were cringing when Hillary spoke.
That up-nort Alaskan twang can become irksome. She also needs some new lines in her boring stump speech…!
I rather liked…
…from yesterday…!
J_Gocht on September 19, 2008 at 3:16 PM
Even on this Gallup pole, look at the “trend” for the week on the 10b Economy graf—McCain +1%, Obama -3%.
maxine on September 19, 2008 at 3:17 PM
Umm. Yes, you are. And a pretty obnoxious one at that.
Blake on September 19, 2008 at 3:19 PM
Or, maybe he is a pretentious jerk who can’t control his passive aggressive feelings that he is stuck on HotAir when he really wants to be one of the cool NRO kids?
Blake on September 19, 2008 at 3:22 PM
csdeven,
Glad you are back! And yes, Obama is a very big loser on the 2nd—he is a gun grabbing GFW.
maxine on September 19, 2008 at 3:22 PM
I think the Heller ruling kind of defused gun rights for this election. Although I was a good ruling for 2nd amendment supporters, by virtue of its existence it kind of takes Obama’s positions on gun rights off the table.
The really spastic PETA, anti-fur and anti-hunting types will not vote for McCain-Palin, but they wouldn’t have voted for them anyway.
Y-not on September 19, 2008 at 3:23 PM
A lot of white people living in cold climates have nasally voices because of their small noses.
Racist.
/sarc
Y-not on September 19, 2008 at 3:24 PM
The early registration by THE ONE in the primary season was when he was clean and articulate. Now he is down in the ditches and very dirty, and based on his appearance in Miami, he is no longer articulate. The yute voters are being reported as being very unhappy with THE ONE.
Also, Operation Chaos played a role in swinging those numbers. Sometime in the last two weeks I saw a report about party identity and that the GOP were RISING in registration despite the ya-ya from the MSMLSD types saying we were down in voter registration. I have two teenagers that will register next week as Republicans. Party identification was only separated by one point. I think it was something like 48%-47% and the Dems were winning by one point whereas earlier there was a double digit separation.
We all keep saying this, but for those that do not know or did not hear Rush; he said 2-3 weeks ago Obama would have to be up by 10-15 points to win, and he said the majority of the pollsters were Dem backed or affiliated, AND these very same pollsters would try to get us down by reporting McCain down. I do not buy these numbers. The test group sounds very vague. I too have never been polled or contacted by any polling group. Of course I live in the South and nobody cares what we think.
Another thing to note is that THE ONE has outspent McCain in Florida something like 5-1 until within the past week, and McCain is up by around 4 points. There are all sorts of articles that have come out in the past week about how much money THE ONE is going through and how there is NOT ENOUGH. THE ONE and THE GANG are going to have to take the time away from the campaign to raise enough money to stay competitive. None of the money raised is going to any Congressional races and notice THE ONE does not seem to be bringing the local races into focus when he is stumping! No “I” in team. I think the money issue and ticking of the local yocals for their races is going to backfire as well.
Lastly, McCain and his camp went AWOL for about 48 hours during the financial crisis. There could be a lag in the numbers due to the crickets chirping before he got back in the saddle. Here is hoping they keep firing both barrels. There is enough junk on THE ONE and his cronies that they could create an ad every 30 seconds! Yesterday Rich Lowery said, (I paraphrase), the McCain camp had tons of stuff on Obama that they had not released yet, but if Obama keeps up this dishonorable stuff and calling McCain a liar, well it might be released. RELEASE THE HOUNDS McCAIN!!!
freeus on September 19, 2008 at 3:25 PM
Oh I see not enough changey hopey–Dopey?
petunia on September 19, 2008 at 3:29 PM
That is very good news. If McCain can surpass on the economy Obama has nothing left.
petunia on September 19, 2008 at 3:30 PM
Except, of course, for the MSM.
csdeven on September 19, 2008 at 3:34 PM
LOL!!!!
Fortunata on September 19, 2008 at 3:35 PM
So, no one really knows it’s happening, and we can’t find anyone who admits to doing it, but it sounds good, so let’s roll with it. You know, kinda like man-made global warming, or bigfoot. You can’t find either of them, but you just know they’re there.
It’s funny that the “Bradley Effect” doesn’t happen every time a black guy runs for office. I guess it’s kinda like a herpes outbreak: it sorta comes and goes.
The Bradley Effect is a myth. The entire theory is absurd.
xblade on September 19, 2008 at 3:35 PM
I like most of your analysis, but I think releasing dirt on Obama (and Biden) will only accomplish so much. The media consistently gives both of them a pass on things coming out of their own lips, forget opposition ads, and rarely report the horrible things O!’s surrogates and associates say and do.
I think McCain’s short-turnaround time ads responding to attacks are fine, but they shouldn’t rely on them. They need to be balanced by positive messaging on the big issues: economy, energy, and terrorism. McCain-Palin clearly have the upper hand on energy and terrorism; now they are working on the economy. My advice: K.I.S.S. Deliver a simple message about job creation and low taxes; let the other guys evoke images of the Great Depression and ‘eat the rich’ populism.
In my opinion, Republicans need moderates and independents to vote this year. Too much negative advertisements, even when they are true, lead to a depressed electorate who doesn’t feel like voting at all. We do not want this election to be one of typical politicians fighting dirty — it’ll turn off voters. That’s one of the values of Palin. I am quite comfortable stacking her record of reform against anything O! or Plugs have done.
Y-not on September 19, 2008 at 3:41 PM
He needs more ads in Spanish telling conservatives (through a
translator) that he’s going to get Comprehensive Immigration Reform passed within the first 100 days he’s in office !
That’ll get his poll numbers up !!!
BowHuntingTexas on September 19, 2008 at 3:42 PM
I’ve heard different people comment on Sarah’s accent but I don’t hear one. She speaks distinctly but I don’t hear an accent.
Rose on September 19, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Gosh this is great news.McCain is finally breaking thru with auto workers in Michigan…!
Say What…?
My name is “Flipper”…Flipper”, auto workers are smarter than you think Senator McCain…!
J_Gocht on September 19, 2008 at 3:45 PM
If you want to keep drinking the koolaid, please be my guest. Just don’t whine about how shocked you were come November 5th.
Illinidiva on September 19, 2008 at 3:45 PM
It sounds like a “mountain states” accent to me. I’m from Maryland originally but I have lived in the Northeast, the Midwest, Texas, and California.
Y-not on September 19, 2008 at 3:46 PM
maxine on September 19, 2008 at 3:17 PM
Shesh!! pole = poll
maxine on September 19, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Am I the only one that thinks the Bradley effect is just as attributable to a fear of being labeled a racist as it is to someone actually being a racist?
Which makes more sense:
A racist person tells people they are going to vote for Obama (to cover up the fact that they’re racist) but then they don’t vote for him.
OR
A person that’s not racist tells someone they’re going to vote for Obama even though they aren’t because people around them keep saying that “The only reason someone wouldn’t vote for Obama is because they’re a racist.”
I find situation 2 to be far more likely. Most of the people I’ve run in to that are racists/sexists don’t actually see anything wrong with what they are saying, so they don’t try to hide it.
JadeNYU on September 19, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Good point about McCain’s response to the financial crisis. But since yesterday afternoon, McCain has not only come out with two good ads linking Fannie Mae’s millionaire failures to Obama’s campaign, he has come out with a detailed plan of how to deal with it in the future (check the link below).
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2ZkYmRiZGVlMDcxYzdhZGEzNDcxN2JlZTdlNGFhZDE=
After the financial crisis, Barry O was cavorting with rich donors in California for $28K a plate, then running around saying that he’s such a genius for not being George Bush (we knew that already!).
Right now, it seems like McCain was wise enough to know that being 5 points down in mid-September means very little, so he took a few days off, did some research, huddled with his aides, and came up with a sensible plan to reform Fannie and Freddie, and found the links between Fannie and Obama. The speech in Green Bay shows that McCain has all his ducks in a row on this issue, and he can clobber Obama with it until Election Day or until Obama changes the subject.
As Palin said in her RNC speech, “What is [Obama's] plan?”
Good question! McCain knew he still had seven weeks before the election, so he took the time to write a plan, now he has to go out and sell it. When the voters are given the choice between something and nothing, they’ll choose McCain.
Steve Z on September 19, 2008 at 3:54 PM
Yes but the point is if his numbers go up it means he is slipping past the firewall the MSM is putting up.
If not for the MSM Obama wouldn’t even be the Dem nominee. Even if he had gotten this far–he couldn’t be any higher in the polls than any other exteremly Liberal Dem with exactly no experience and that’s not very high, what 5%?
Obama should be in the Ralph Nader/Ross Perot numbers if the truth about him was allowed out.
petunia on September 19, 2008 at 3:57 PM
JadeNYU on September 19, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Yes,I think you’re right. But when even ‘respectable’ magazines like TIME start putting out the meme I think its going to unnerve the McCain leaners; those not firmly decided.
Fortunata on September 19, 2008 at 3:58 PM
RAAAAAAAAAAACIST!!!!
/sarc
hahaha. I hear ya, and you’re 100% correct.
csdeven on September 19, 2008 at 4:01 PM
The MSM can’t have Obama jump in the “fair and balanced true unbiased polls” overnight. They have to perform the “Chinese Water Torture” of drip……… drip…….. drip.
………….. a point here, a point there, and to those who do not follow this fodder as we do, will be lulled into
(I know, time to vomit).
This will not end pretty, and if McCain wins, it will not end there. Wait for the MSM to show overwhelming polls of people who voted for Obama, and are now victims of voter fraud. The Dems will tear this country apart just to get power back over the ashes. On that you can bet on. This will become a civil war.
You don’t think so?
D-list comedian wants Gov. Sarah Palin gang raped by black men in New York, and the MSM doesn’t even blink.
……….. the gloves are off, and John and Sarah can not forget that for one single second.
Seven Percent Solution on September 19, 2008 at 4:02 PM
freeus,
Good post but calm down with the dogs. A good hunter knows not to go off blindly firing away or firing too soon.
Sarah and Mac can lure them in let them play their silly games and drop them when the time is right.
Kind of like Mav did with the Palin pick and stealin the convention bounce and media thunder from 0Vomit.
Some big time names in the Dem party are switching sides let them come and make the case for Mc/Sarah.
Right now its all good, Rush is right, 0Vomit will have to be up by 10 to win when you consider the Dems going into the booth unintimidated and voting theiir conscience.
How many non-caucus states did 0Vomit take from Hillary?
dhunter on September 19, 2008 at 4:03 PM
I’m originally from Eastern Washington State, where Palin’s parents live now. Her accent seems to be Pacific Norwest (without the Californian that is on the coast) that and some British Columbia from what I can tell. Her husband is very much BC… he’s native Alaskan. But no “eh?” that I’ve heard. I think the upper mid-west has alot of Canada in it too.
In my mind this is how Moose speak. Meese? Mooses? I know it just never seems correct.
petunia on September 19, 2008 at 4:03 PM
I was born here in California and have lived here all my life but my family is from Alabama and we have often visited them. When I think of an accent I think of the southern one or the way my husband’s family speaks who are from Wisconsin. I don’t hear anything like that in her speech. Maybe it is closer to what I’ve grown up with.
Rose on September 19, 2008 at 4:10 PM
I know you are kidding but that label is really effective! I know why they use it.
It just sends you into…. “what did I say? Was that inappropriate?” Mode.
And Obama’s numbers and the MSM support is wholely reverse Racism in my opinion. He was Freshman senator when he started running. Has no experience and no record of doing anything sucessfully. This is way worse than Carter. At least Carter had run Georgia.
petunia on September 19, 2008 at 4:10 PM
I don’t give a rat’s patoot about daily poll reports….. this stuff will sterilize you…. all McCain needs to do is get frickin aggressive but truthful and fight like a junk yard dog…… sheesh!
MNDavenotPC on September 19, 2008 at 4:11 PM
Yes my family and husband’s family are from all over the West and Palin fits there but with something else I think must be Canadian. And the accent in Western Canada is less than the East. When we were in Niagra a few years ago I kept having to make my kids quit saying “eh?” it was embarrassing.
petunia on September 19, 2008 at 4:13 PM
I Don’t Follow Polls. Every election cycle we get the same media-driven polling. Every day the numbers change, the various polls don’t agree with each other, and every day all the pundits and bloggers on both sides of the debate live and die by the polls. Either the swing voters in the middle are morons that change their minds every day on the least bit of provocationor the polls are inaccurate! As they say, there is only 1 poll that really counts. The rest are just a way of making us believe we have control over something we have no control over. If Obama wins, America deserves him.
hestrold on September 19, 2008 at 4:17 PM
How can McCain be leading in all the internal measurements like “who would be the better cic or who is prepared to lead” and be down in the polls. Only 44% said Obama is ready to be President but he is up by 5 points? One day a poll comes out in North Carolina and says McCain is up by 18 and the next day Obama is up by 1. All these polls carry the same weight regardless of how accurate they are or how they are weighting Dems,Repubs and Independents. I can’t imagine having to wait days while a President Obama tries to figure out what to do in a crisis. After he hears how his last statement was dissected by the media, he takes it back and tries again. He still hasn’t said waht he thinks about the current crisis while McCain had a plan in 2005 that if it had been adopted would have dealt with this situation before it became a crisis. I am really afraid for this country.
sharonlr on September 19, 2008 at 4:17 PM
Rose on September 19, 2008 at 4:10 PM
Listen especially to the “oo” sounds. Todd Palin especially.
petunia on September 19, 2008 at 4:24 PM
After finishing his uncomfortable speech today at the GM Plant he couldn’t wait to get out fast enough as the crowd showered him with boos and Obama ‘08 chants.
Say What…?
My name is “Flipper”…Flipper”, auto workers are smarter than you think Senator McCain…!
J_Gocht on September 19, 2008 at 3:45 PM
So here is where this guy got this quote:
Looks like the same, and the only one that Google produces, so where does J_Gocht get his information? sternfannetwork.com
A Howard Stern blog, that’s right this guy quotes a Howard Stern fan as an expert.
So I guess my insult to him about masturbating his lies was more accurate then I thought…
Oh my…Howard Stern blog leading the way to truth…HAHAHAAH!
right2bright on September 19, 2008 at 4:24 PM
sharonlr on September 19, 2008 at 4:17 PM
He leads all the internals except the economy which everyone says is most important. So when he can establish his strength over the economy then he really should be ahead.
petunia on September 19, 2008 at 4:25 PM
Two things:
1. Stop saying “my friends”;
2. And stop saying I’ll reach across the aisle when it’s the left that caused part of this (Fannie and Freddie).
McCain just can’t get angry enough, and I’m sick of the right not fighting harder and saying stupid things like “I respect this person and that person”. ENOUGH ALREADY.
madmonkphotog on September 19, 2008 at 4:29 PM
Heh.
I’m trying to mentally brace myself for an Obama Presidency. I’d rather be pleasantly surprised on Election Day than devastated that in spite of a refreshing Palin and a dogged McCain, it still wasn’t enough. =(
Lincoln on September 19, 2008 at 4:30 PM
If you want to keep acting like a troll, I will keep pointing it out. Almost every post you make here and on other blogs is the same: donks gonna win/repugs gonna loose – followed by your stupid phony frown icon. You fool no one, troll.
Blake on September 19, 2008 at 4:31 PM
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