Gallup: Obama gains another point, leads McCain by five; Update: McCain gains, within one in Hotline poll
posted at 1:49 pm on September 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
Fourth day in a row that The One has gained, leaving him one point shy of his all-time high. If the CW’s correct and this is mostly a byproduct of the financial meltdown, then the market surge today on news of the bailout could reverse the trend next week. If it’s not correct and this is a more general swing back towards Obama, then Maverick had better punctuate every answer at the debates with, “Have I mentioned I’m a war hero?”
Even the battlegrounds look bad per the new Marist poll, although scan the internals and you’ll see Palin’s net favorables are better than recent polls would indicate. She’s no lower than +15 in any of the three states, and in Ohio she’s +22 — the widest margin of any of the four candidates on either ticket. Exit question: Second look at Palinmania?
Update: All’s not lost yet. Maverick trailed by four in yesterday’s Hotline poll and now he’s back within one, on the same day that worries about the economy have hit an all-time high. How to explain it? Hmmm:
More anti-Obama Fannie ads, please. Good news for Palin too, thanks no doubt to the Hannity interview — she’s now back ahead of McCain and Biden in net favorables and just a point behind The One.
Blowback
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Second look at Hotline!
Mr. Wednesday Night on September 19, 2008 at 4:35 PM
The polls the MSM quotes are to help keep the race tight, that is how they sell papers and ads. To keep the interest at a peak. Those polls are given out for free, and would never reflect any real accuracy, otherwise why would the RNC or DNC spend millions of dollars for polls.
The real numbers are the internals that the various camps spend the big bucks for. And the only way to know what those are, are by the way that the two parties are reacting.
When Palin was stealing the show, you could see the panic from Obama. They tried every tact to steal those numbers back, finally settling on attack ads, and using the racist card. That “righted” the ship for now.
McCain lost ground, so they have put out a series of ads to counter-attack. Several a day, to reverse.
The problem is Obama has limited attack fields…he has the race card, and McCain is old, Palin is just a “girl”, and he has to keep his base secure, and he has the MSM as his pitchmen.
McCain has the economy now (showing the Dems have been in control of the committees helps, and Obama’s econ. advisors sucking from the mortgage teet), security, Palin is still strong, Maverick, and if he can convince people he will reach across the aisle, and I think Biden is a McCain asset.
So each of these will be played out in excess depending upon their internal polls.
right2bright on September 19, 2008 at 4:35 PM
You nailded it. These polls are often ridiculously amateurish jobs, or are weighted Democrat to a blatantly stupid extent ( or both ).
Only a poll done by pros with a proven track record which uses a large sample of likely voters is worth reading
Janos Hunyadi on September 19, 2008 at 4:43 PM
DJ Drummond at Wizbang has great analysis on the background of Gallup’s daily tracking poll this week. It’s a must read.
Kim Priestap on September 19, 2008 at 4:46 PM
In addition to AP’s stupid name(he still doesn’t seem to understand that Arabic Christians use the same word, Allah), he also tends to be rather whiney. I’m honestly a bit confused why he’s a writer on here.
TTheoLogan on September 19, 2008 at 4:48 PM
Once again, AP brings the fun!
MCPO Airdale on September 19, 2008 at 4:51 PM
Allahpagan is actually TV’s Andrew Levy, and needs a day job
He’s got the job here because he’s very, very good at it–and you can be sure that if I ( who ain’t the president of his fan club ) say that, it’s Painfully True
Janos Hunyadi on September 19, 2008 at 5:00 PM
Muy interesante. Gracias.
Mr. Wednesday Night on September 19, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Rumor has it he’s a New Yorker
He’s a reckless lawyer
I hear he carries several whips
With women at his fingertips
They say he’s nearly seven feet tall
And yet quite graceful……all in all
I’m told he waddles when he walks
And often twitches when he talks
Is he a dolt? No, he’s very deep!
Oh, Hotair’s losing sleep!
Who is Allahpundit?
Tav on September 19, 2008 at 5:20 PM
I believe it was RealClearPolitics saying something about California being 12 percent of voters and 10 percent of the Electoral College—also being Democrat as Hades. So some of the Democrat skew of close national polls may be states like California, New York, etc that are heavily Democrat and larger than their share of the Electoral College.
What scares me about a potential close race is the potential for cheating. If it’s not close, they can’t cheat (enough).
Sekhmet on September 19, 2008 at 5:21 PM
According to this recent Elon University Poll, it looks like McCain will take North Carolina by a pretty wide margin.
The Ugly American on September 19, 2008 at 5:24 PM
WTH? Rasmussen has Obama up by only 4 in MAINE? WTH?
SouthernGent on September 19, 2008 at 5:35 PM
If you look at RCP, Obama’s lead is less than 2%. Of course that is less than the margin of error. This race looks too close to call. I live in Indiana, and some people say this state is in play, but I have a hard time believing that. Clinton did not beat Dole in this state. That is how red it is. I have a hard time believing Hoosiers would pick this particular Democrat to go with. Too liberal. Governor Daniels has not had an easy time here, but he does have a lead over the Democrat. If Indiana goes for Daniels, I think it will go for McCain.
Terrye on September 19, 2008 at 5:49 PM
I think we may be looking at a Republican landslide.
That is what I think about these polls.
JellyToast on September 19, 2008 at 6:21 PM
Do not believe an Elon poll. Even if it shows numbers you like. Trust me.
SouthernGent on September 19, 2008 at 6:32 PM
Aren’t these the same polls that had Bush down in both ’00 and ’04 and he still won?
Yakko77 on September 19, 2008 at 6:33 PM
r2b2, the blogger was watching it live, on TV.
J_Gocht on September 19, 2008 at 6:36 PM
Jay Cost over at RealClearPolitics has a good state of the Race piece.
It’s close, and it’s stable.
And it’s not time to panic.
thirteen28 on September 19, 2008 at 6:45 PM
Yes, these would be those very same polls.
McCain 370
Obama whatever’s left after Nader
Mojave Mark on September 19, 2008 at 7:24 PM
Every election cycle we go through this. Everyone gets so bent on day-to-day tracking polls and post-election, everyone complains about pollsters being wrong.
Obama has charisma, yes. But he is left of McGovern. Plus he is Muslim. Or if not, enough of the electorate believes he is an elitist muslim who they would never vote for — which is why they voted for Hillary in the primaries. But try to get Frank Luntz to get someone in a focus group to admit that.
McCain/Palin will get 53% of the popular vote.
grdred944 on September 19, 2008 at 7:29 PM
Oh ooO… the conservative WSJ dumpin’ on McSame too…
Could it get any worse than that…?
J_Gocht on September 19, 2008 at 7:30 PM
I refuse to get depressed until after the debates.
ctmom on September 19, 2008 at 7:33 PM
Polls during the campaign season tend to naturally swing toward the Democrat, if the Republican does nothing to hold media attention. It’s been a fairly quiet couple of weeks, after the initial excitement of the RNC. If the Republican doesn’t generate favorable coverage for himself, or force the media to report on the shortcomings of the Democrat, the average voter floats in a sea of puff pieces and celebrity accolades for the Democrat, and the odd hit piece or political smear against the Republican. (The power of the MSM has dwindled, but one of the most important benefits it still conveys is the refusal to call a Democrat on dishonest or sleazy campaign ads – they can run with near impunity.)
Given this environment, it’s natural for the average voter to arrive at the debates feeling mildly positive about the Democrat, without really understanding why, and repeating the conventional wisdom that the Republican candidate is “embattled” or “controversial” in some vague way. With this in mind, a Democrat strategist should be terrified of going into the debates with a lead of only one or two points.
All of this tends to reverse dramatically during and after the debates, when average voters begin paying careful attention, and sometimes feel uneasy about the hollow media auras around the candidates. That’s why the Swift Boat ads devastated Kerry – they hit him right when voters were perking up, his response was laughably weak, his media champions came off as creeps, and voters became uneasy about him. I expect this will be even more pronounced with Obama, whose dangerous ineptitude in financial matters will turn off voters as they grow involved in the subprime crisis, and who has been bleeding from slow mortal wounds ever since Jeremiah Wright.
Doctor Zero on September 19, 2008 at 7:37 PM
McCain will have a tough time blaming allowing this economic Katrina to happen on Obama, as he has been trying to do, given that McCain has been in the Senate for over a quarter of a century and has been criticizing Obama during most of the campaign for nor being in Washington nearly long enough. If Obama were to be willing to run against Washington, including his own party, he would be very hard to stop.
KentAllard on September 19, 2008 at 7:51 PM
McCain has been getting some really bad advice of late. God knows he’s not sharp enough to dream it up by himself.
I don’t think its Karl Rove. He was warning McCain last week about making up unsubstantiated statements concerning Obama’s record.
Oh well “shaky Jake”…!
J_Gocht on September 19, 2008 at 7:59 PM
Prediction:
Based on the Bradley Effect, the following states listed by Real Clear Politics as battleground states are in Senator Obama’s column but will end up going for Senator McCain.
Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Washington and New Mexico. (probably a lot more… especially with all of my prior 50 of 50 predictions. This is just for you nay sayers.)
After reviewing a number of articles, it appears the actual percent hovers right around 10% impact. The states listed above are just those within 5%.
Again, just my opinion.
CC
CapedConservative on September 19, 2008 at 8:06 PM
Live by them, die by them.
It’s the Electoral College, stupid!
Randy
williars on September 19, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Hey C_C, thanks for adding that; I was really getting concerned…!
J_Gocht on September 19, 2008 at 8:10 PM
The sincerity of your concern is sincerely appreciated…
CC
CapedConservative on September 19, 2008 at 8:12 PM
Aw shucks. :)
J_Gocht on September 19, 2008 at 8:19 PM
Although I would not dismiss it entirely, the “Bradley effect” my be more illusionary than real. The pollsters may have just screwed up at polling and rather than admitting that chose to say that the voters they polled lied to them.
KentAllard on September 19, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Shucks is right. I had some time to kill waiting for my wife to get off the phone so we could go to a movie, so I thought I would come here and toss some chum out and “troll for trolls”….. One lousy hit.
Oh well, off to the movies.
CC
CapedConservative on September 19, 2008 at 8:30 PM
That’s because when they say Mccain is ahead, they are telling the truth..but when they say Hussein is ahead, they are lying to us.
SaintOlaf on September 19, 2008 at 8:42 PM
AP : Is this the obligatory Mack & Pallin tanking post? If its a weekday that ends in the letters d-a-y then it is time to pour cold water on the beleivers. Shalom.
Fuquay Steve on September 19, 2008 at 8:46 PM
For the most part, I’ve stopped looking at polls outside of Rasmussen Reports. They’re consistently on of the most accurate and they’re showing a tie. 48 to 48. I think that as long as McCain is within 3 points of Obama in the various battleground states he’ll easily win those states and the electoral college. Outside of 3 points…..who knows.
the_stoics on September 19, 2008 at 8:48 PM
Hey Allahpundit, Cap’n Ed:
The biggest conversion of a free market to a managed socialist economy is occurring right now, and this site has been focused on Palin and Obama. The only economic event that has been more significant in our history is the Great Depressino
There more important things to talk about than the horse race at the moment.
Get out your bubble guys.
olddeadmeat on September 19, 2008 at 8:58 PM
Bad typing, should have been;
Get out of your bubble guys.
olddeadmeat on September 19, 2008 at 8:59 PM
One word: Diebold. :-)
POH on September 19, 2008 at 9:05 PM
From Jay Cost:
Contrary to what one might think if one’s only source for information was the political class – there has not been a lot of movement. The movement we have seen seems to have been pretty orderly – with McCain solidifying his Republican base.
We also see a group of undecided voters who have not yet made a choice. They will probably be decisive. In a race with only two salient candidates – the goal is to hit 50%-plus-one. Both McCain and Obama can still do that via the undecided voters, who are becoming the critical voting block.
Donald Douglas on September 19, 2008 at 9:16 PM
“The biggest conversion of a free market to a managed socialist economy is occurring right now, and this site has been focused on Palin and Obama.”
I’m willing to concede that Paulson and Bernake probably understand the economy and severity of the problem better than I do.
So, I’ll let them do their job of saving the markets from a crash, while I harmlessly opine on meaningless polls.
Anyway, we should all take a lesson from 2006. Many of us thought the polls were too skewed for the Dems, but they ended up being fairly accurate. So, stand up and fight for America!!!
mockmook on September 19, 2008 at 10:51 PM
mockmook,
Actually, no one fully understands what has been happening, but they know enough to be scared to death.
Why else do you think Congress agreed to bail out the entire housing market in less than 2 days? Min with both parties committing to effectively spend hundreds of billions of dollars with no discussion and almost no negotiating for political advantage or oversight at all?.
Have you noticed how many blank checks have been handed out lately? Freddie, Fannie, AIG (also a blank check – that $85 billion will evaporate faster than spit on a hot griddle) and now this.
The polls are meaningless, utterly, because the public has not yet grasped how frightened the experts and the policy makers are.
When the public does realize how brown some experts’ pants are, there really will be no way to predict how they will swing. Will they run to the prophet of change or to the experienced maverick?
olddeadmeat on September 19, 2008 at 11:46 PM
I do not want to promote either Bill Maher or Andrew Sullivan now, for obvious reasons. But Real Time was really strange tonight in a strangely positive way. In response idiotic socialist crap from some chick named Naomi Klein–Andrew Sullivan almost became a conservative again. Then Sully switched back with a McCain Palin attack. Then Maher went on a rant about religion. Then Sully switched back again. It was like watching a gay version of Dr. Jeckle and Mr. Hyde or the Hulk–except Sully switched back and forth between leftist and conservative.
But, know hope.
The panelists all acknowledged that if Obama is not leading by 5-7% by November 4, he will lose. They said it was racism, but could it possibly be policy-ism? Plus they don’t know how to deal with it, they all had a different attack plan and they all contradicted each other. They are scared. McCain and Palin really have them shaken. I liked that part.
Mr. Joe on September 20, 2008 at 12:37 AM
Yeah, lying is NOT a good thing when one touts themselves as the Straight Talk Express. Duh…
Shelby on September 20, 2008 at 12:39 AM
+1
Kevin71 on September 20, 2008 at 12:49 AM
KentAllard on September 19, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Janos Hunyadi on September 20, 2008 at 1:21 AM
You have about the same intelligence as a tree stump. Look at the polls from just today as you don’t have to go any further than just that. Gallup has Obama up by 5 and Ras has it a tie. Both cover the same time range and have approximately 3000 as their sample size. Obviously at least one of them, and these are 2 of the top polls, is off, and that is just what they are off with each other today.
You say that there is ALWAYS, ALWAYS a “Bradley effect”. Has it ever occurred to you that there could actually be some possibility of even a reverse “Bradley effect”? Obviously not as with your ALWAYS ALWAYS your very limited mind see only a certainty of a “Bradley effect” and one that is big enough to be proven by the difference between polling and the actual election results. You seem to have never heard of the exit polling from 2004 and how wrong that was. I think that it is far more likely that the pollsters did a bad job than that people lied to them in large numbers.
KentAllard on September 20, 2008 at 2:10 AM
To win, McCain need do two simple things:
1) Beat Obama in the debates. (I.e., make him get specific.)
2) Blast ads featuring, and I do mean FEATURING, Mrs. Palin as his secret weapon in reforming Washington.
Actually, he may only need to do one of these two things to win. Either will do. Doing both will make it indisputable.
Quetzal on September 20, 2008 at 2:52 AM
It’s not the potential of cheating, it’s the certainty of it. And the certainty that the MSM will facilitate it. The Left has too much at stake to let McCain/Palin win fairly. The greater risk is that our side will play “nice” again and let them get away with anything they please.
Halley on September 20, 2008 at 7:11 AM
Olddeadmeat
I share your concerns!!
When HotAir headlines seem to “lag” it’s usually because a lot of deep research is happening before jumping the gun with a thread. I hope.
I posted my opinion, that curing fascism with more fascism only places us further under the iron boot of slavery to owners.
I would rather that the offending legislated urtext be purged. I do not doubt that we are in extreme circumstances. But the remedy being sold by the Feds to Congress is only a stronger version of the plague with which we are besieged. They can’t sell it as a vaccine when it’s death, but they are. And I’m not buying it.
$.02
maverick muse on September 20, 2008 at 7:17 AM
+1
Readers get over his mannerisms for him.
Allahpundit rules @ HotAir.
maverick muse on September 20, 2008 at 7:22 AM
That is my point. Not all negative reporting/polls about McCain are lies. He certainly deserves the drop in the polls he is experiencing. He was ill advised to claim the fundamentals of the economy are sound. Especially at that time and the way he did it.
csdeven on September 20, 2008 at 8:26 AM
So odm, is that why the conservative Wall Street Journal cut “the experienced maverick” a new “backside exit hatch” yesterday…?
Oh, Ooo…!
J_Gocht on September 20, 2008 at 8:35 AM
Thank you J for the link to the WSJ article. I think this part says it well:
In a crisis, voters want steady, calm leadership, not easy, misleading answers that will do nothing to help. Mr. McCain is sounding like a candidate searching for a political foil rather than a genuine solution. He’ll never beat Mr. Obama by running as an angry populist like Al Gore, circa 2000.
Shelby on September 20, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Mitt Romney, the most qualified to be pres of ALL THE NOMINEES ON BOTH SIDES, would have understood the dynamics of the economy and would not have made a fool of himself as McCain did.
Shelby on September 20, 2008 at 5:15 PM
Gee, ya think?
Jim Treacher on September 21, 2008 at 10:52 AM
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